Phenological response to climate change in China: a meta‐analysis

The change in the phenology of plants or animals reflects the response of living systems to climate change. Numerous studies have reported a consistent earlier spring phenophases in many parts of middle and high latitudes reflecting increasing temperatures with the exception of China. A systematic analysis of Chinese phenological response could complement the assessment of climate change impact for the whole Northern Hemisphere. Here, we analyze 1263 phenological time series (1960–2011, with 20+ years data) of 112 species extracted from 48 studies across 145 sites in China. Taxonomic groups include trees, shrubs, herbs, birds, amphibians and insects. Results demonstrate that 90.8% of the spring/summer phenophases time series show earlier trends and 69.0% of the autumn phenophases records show later trends. For spring/summer phenophases, the mean advance across all the taxonomic groups was 2.75 days decade^?1 ranging between 2.11 and 6.11 days decade^?1 for insects and amphibians, respectively. Herbs and amphibians show significantly stronger advancement than trees, shrubs and insect. The response of phenophases of different taxonomic groups in autumn is more complex: trees, shrubs, herbs and insects show a delay between 1.93 and 4.84 days decade^?1, while other groups reveal an advancement ranging from 1.10 to 2.11 days decade^?1. For woody plants (including trees and shrubs), the stronger shifts toward earlier spring/summer were detected from the data series starting from more recent decades (1980s–2000s). The geographic factors (latitude, longitude and altitude) could only explain 9% and 3% of the overall variance in spring/summer and autumn phenological trends, respectively. The rate of change in spring/summer phenophase of woody plants (1960s–2000s) generally matches measured local warming across 49 sites in China (R = ?0.33, P < 0.05).     

Phenological and elevational shifts of plants,animals and fungi under climate change in the European Alps

Mountain areas are biodiversity hotspots and provide a multitude of ecosystem services of irreplaceable socio-economic value. In the European Alps, air temperature has increased at a rate of about 0.36°C decade⁻¹ since 1970, leading to glacier retreat and significant snowpack reduction. Due to these rapid environmental changes, this mountainous region is undergoing marked changes in spring phenology and elevational distribution of animals, plants and fungi. Long-term monitoring in the European Alps offers an excellent natural laboratory to synthetize climate-related changes in spring phenology and elevational distribution for a large array of taxonomic groups. This review assesses the climatic changes that have occurred across the European Alps during recent decades, spring phenological changes and upslope shifts of plants, animals and fungi from evidence in published papers and previously unpublished data. Our review provides evidence that spring phenology has been shifting earlier during the past four decades and distribution ranges show an upwards trend for most of the taxonomic groups for which there are sufficient data. The first observed activity of reptiles and terrestrial insects (e.g. butterflies) in spring has shifted significantly earlier, at an average rate of −5.7 and −6.0 days decade⁻¹, respectively. By contrast, the first observed spring activity of semi-aquatic insects (e.g. dragonflies and damselflies) and amphibians, as well as the singing activity or laying dates of resident birds, show smaller non-significant trends ranging from −1.0 to +1.3 days decade⁻¹. Leaf-out and flowering of woody and herbaceous plants showed intermediate trends with mean values of −2.4 and −2.8 days decade⁻¹, respectively. Regarding species distribution, plants, animals and fungi (N = 2133 species) shifted the elevation of maximum abundance (optimum elevation) upslope at a similar pace (on average between +18 and +25 m decade⁻¹) but with substantial differences among taxa. For example, the optimum elevation shifted upward by +36.2 m decade⁻¹ for terrestrial insects and +32.7 m decade⁻¹ for woody plants, whereas it was estimated to range between −1.0 and +11 m decade⁻¹ for semi-aquatic insects, ferns, birds and wood-decaying fungi. The upper range limit (leading edge) of most species also shifted upslope with a rate clearly higher for animals (from +47 to +91 m decade⁻¹) than for plants (from +17 to +40 m decade⁻¹), except for semi-aquatic insects (−4.7 m decade⁻¹). Although regional land-use changes could partly explain some trends, the consistent upward shift found in almost all taxa all over the Alps is likely reflecting the strong warming and the receding of snow cover that has taken place across the European Alps over recent decades. However, with the possible exception of terrestrial insects, the upward shift of organisms seems currently too slow to track the pace of isotherm shifts induced by climate warming, estimated at about +62 to +71 m decade⁻¹ since 1970. In the light of these results, species interactions are likely to change over multiple trophic levels through phenological and spatial mismatches. This nascent research field deserves greater attention to allow us to anticipate structural and functional changes better at the ecosystem level.     

Quo vadis amphibia? Global warming and breeding phenology in frogs,toads and salamanders

As the earth is getting warmer, many animals and plants have shifted their timing of breeding towards earlier dates. However, there is substantial variation between populations in phenological shifts that typically goes unexplained. Identification of the different location and species characteristics that drive such variable responses to global warming is crucial if we are to make predictions for how projected climate change scenarios will play out on local and global scales. Here we conducted a phylogenetically controlled meta‐analysis of breeding phenology across frogs, toads and salamanders to examine the extent of variation in amphibian breeding phenology in response to global climate change. We show that there is strong geographic variation in response to global climate change, with species at higher latitudes exhibiting a more pronounced shift to earlier breeding than those at lower latitudes. Our analyses suggest that this latitude effect is a result of both the increased temperature (but not precipitation) at higher latitudes as well as a greater responsiveness by northern populations of amphibians to this change in temperature. We suggest that these effects should reinforce any direct effect of increasing warming at higher latitudes on breeding phenology. In contrast, we found very little contribution from other location factors or species traits. There was no evidence for a phylogenetic signal on advancing breeding phenology or responsiveness to temperature, suggesting that the amphibians that have been studied to date respond similarly to global warming.     

Response of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Morus bombycis</Emphasis> growing season to temperature and its latitudinal pattern in Japan

Changes in leaf phenology lengthen the growing season length (GSL, the days between leaf budburst and leaf fall) under the global warming. GSL and the leaf phenology response to climate change is one of the most important predictors of climate change effect on plants. Empirical evidence of climatic effects on GSL remains scarce, especially at a regional scale and the latitudinal pattern. This study analyzed the datasets of leaf budburst and fall phenology in Morus bombycis (Urticales), which were observed by the agency of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) from 1953 to 2005 over a wide range of latitudes in Japan (31 to 44° N). In the present study, single regression slopes of leaf phenological timing and air temperature across Japan were calculated and their spatial patterns using general linear models were tested. The results showed that the GSL extension was caused mainly by a delay in leaf fall phenology. Relationships between latitude and leaf phenological and GSL responses against air temperature were significantly negative. The response of leaf phenology and GSL to air temperature at lower latitudes was larger than that at higher latitudes. The findings indicate that GSL extension should be considered with regards to latitude and climate change.     

A critical thermal transition driving spring phenology of Northern Hemisphere conifers

Despite growing interest in predicting plant phenological shifts, advanced spring phenology by global climate change remains debated. Evidence documenting either small or large advancement of spring phenology to rising temperature over the spatio-temporal scales implies a potential existence of a thermal threshold in the responses of forests to global warming. We collected a unique data set of xylem cell-wall-thickening onset dates in 20 coniferous species covering a broad mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient (−3.05 to 22.9°C) across the Northern Hemisphere (latitudes 23°–66° N). Along the MAT gradient, we identified a threshold temperature (using segmented regression) of 4.9 ± 1.1°C, above which the response of xylem phenology to rising temperatures significantly decline. This threshold separates the Northern Hemisphere conifers into cold and warm thermal niches, with MAT and spring forcing being the primary drivers for the onset dates (estimated by linear and Bayesian mixed-effect models), respectively. The identified thermal threshold should be integrated into the Earth-System-Models for a better understanding of spring phenology in response to global warming and an improved prediction of global climate-carbon feedbacks.     

Freshwater species distributions along thermal gradients

The distribution of a species along a thermal gradient is commonly approximated by a unimodal response curve, with a characteristic single optimum near the temperature where a species is most likely to be found, and a decreasing probability of occurrence away from the optimum. We aimed at identifying thermal response curves (TRCs) of European freshwater species and evaluating the potential impact of climate warming across species, taxonomic groups, and latitude. We first applied generalized additive models using catchment‐scale global data on distribution ranges of 577 freshwater species native to Europe and four different temperature variables (the current annual mean air/water temperature and the maximum air/water temperature of the warmest month) to describe species TRCs. We then classified TRCs into one of eight curve types and identified spatial patterns in thermal responses. Finally, we integrated empirical TRCs and the projected geographic distribution of climate warming to evaluate the effect of rising temperatures on species’ distributions. For the different temperature variables, 390–463 of 577 species (67.6%–80.2%) were characterized by a unimodal TRC. The number of species with a unimodal TRC decreased from central toward northern and southern Europe. Warming tolerance (WT = maximum temperature of occurrence—preferred temperature) was higher at higher latitudes. Preferred temperature of many species is already exceeded. Rising temperatures will affect most Mediterranean species. We demonstrated that freshwater species’ occurrence probabilities are most frequently unimodal. The impact of the global climate warming on species distributions is species and latitude dependent. Among the studied taxonomic groups, rising temperatures will be most detrimental to fish. Our findings support the efforts of catchment‐based freshwater management and conservation in the face of global warming.     

Climate tracking by freshwater fishes suggests that fish diversity in temperate lakes may be increasingly threatened by climate warming

Aim

Many freshwater fishes are migrating poleward to more thermally suitable habitats in response to warming climates. In this study, we aimed to identify which freshwater fishes are most sensitive to climatic changes and asked: (i) how fast are lakes warming? (ii) how fast are fishes moving? and (iii) are freshwater fishes tracking climate?

Location

Ontario, Canada.

Methods

We assembled a database containing time series data on climate and species occurrence data from 10,732 lakes between 1986 and 2017. We calculated the rate of lake warming and climate velocity for these lakes. Climate velocities were compared with biotic velocities, specifically the rate at which the northernmost extent of each species shifted north.

Results

Lakes in Ontario warmed by 0.2°C decade⁻¹ on average, at a climate velocity of 9.4 km decade⁻¹ between 1986 and 2017. In response, some freshwater fishes have shifted their northern range boundaries with considerable interspecific variation ranging from species moving southwards at a rate of −58.9 km decade⁻¹ to species ranges moving northwards at a rate of 83.6 km decade⁻¹ over the same time period. More freshwater fish species are moving into northern lakes in Ontario than those being lost. Generally, predators are moving their range edges northwards, whereas prey fishes are being lost from northern lakes.

Main Conclusions

The concurrent loss of cooler refugia, combined with antagonistic competitive and predatory interactions with the range expanding species, has resulted in many commercially important predators moving their range edges northwards, whereas prey species have contracted their northern range edge boundaries. Trophic partitioning of range shifts highlights a previously undocumented observation of the loss of freshwater fishes from lower trophic levels in response to climate-driven migrations.     

Global warming is increasing the discrepancy between green (actual) and thermal (potential) seasons of temperate trees

Over the past decades, global warming has led to a lengthening of the time window during which temperatures remain favorable for carbon assimilation and tree growth, resulting in a lengthening of the green season. The extent to which forest green seasons have tracked the lengthening of this favorable period under climate warming, however, has not been quantified to date. Here, we used remote sensing data and long-term ground observations of leaf-out and coloration for six dominant species of European trees at 1773 sites, for a total of 6060 species–site combinations, during 1980–2016 and found that actual green season extensions (GS: 3.1 ± 0.1 day decade⁻¹) lag four times behind extensions of the potential thermal season (TS: 12.6 ± 0.1 day decade⁻¹). Similar but less pronounced differences were obtained using satellite-derived vegetation phenology observations, that is, a lengthening of 4.4 ± 0.13 and 7.5 ± 0.13 day decade⁻¹ for GS and TS, respectively. This difference was mainly driven by the larger advance in the onset of the thermal season compared to the actual advance of leaf-out dates (spring mismatch: 7.2 ± 0.1 day decade⁻¹), but to a less extent caused by a phenological mismatch between GS and TS in autumn (2.4 ± 0.1 day decade⁻¹). Our results showed that forest trees do not linearly track the new thermal window extension, indicating more complex interactions between winter and spring temperatures and photoperiod and a justification of demonstrating that using more sophisticated models that include the influence of chilling and photoperiod is needed to accurately predict spring phenological changes under warmer climate. They urge caution if such mechanisms are omitted to predict, for example, how vegetative health and growth, species distribution and crop yields will change in the future.     

Phenological Changes in the Southern Hemisphere

Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported.     

Climate adaptation is not enough: warming does not facilitate success of southern tundra plant populations in the high Arctic

Rapidly rising temperatures are expected to cause latitudinal and elevational range shifts as species track their optimal climate north and upward. However, a lack of adaptation to environmental conditions other than climate – for example photoperiod, biotic interactions, or edaphic conditions – might limit the success of immigrants in a new location despite hospitable climatic conditions. Here, we present one of the first direct experimental tests of the hypothesis that warmer temperatures at northern latitudes will confer a fitness advantage to southern immigrants relative to native populations. As rates of warming in the Arctic are more than double the global average, understanding the impacts of warming in Arctic ecosystems is especially urgent. We established experimentally warmed and nonwarmed common garden plots at Alexandra Fiord, Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic with seeds of two forb species (Oxyria digyna and Papaver radicatum) originating from three to five populations at different latitudes across the Arctic. We found that plants from the local populations generally had higher survival and obtained a greater maximum size than foreign individuals, regardless of warming treatment. Phenological traits varied with latitude of the source population, such that southern populations demonstrated substantially delayed leaf‐out and senescence relative to northern populations. Our results suggest that environmental conditions other than temperature may influence the ability of foreign populations and species to establish at more northerly latitudes as the climate warms, potentially leading to lags in northward range shifts for some species.     

The effects of four decades of climate change on the breeding ecology of an avian sentinel species across a 1,500‐km latitudinal gradient are stronger at high latitudes

Global warming affects breeding phenology of birds differentially with latitude, but there is contrasting evidence about how the changing climate influences the breeding of migrating songbirds at their northern breeding range. We investigate the effect of climate warming on breeding time and breeding success of European pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca in Sweden during a period of 36 years using nest reports from bird ringing. To account for the latitudinal variation, we divided Sweden into three latitudinal bands (northern, intermediate, and southern). We applied a sliding window approach to find the most influential period and environment characteristics (temperature, vegetation greenness, and precipitation), using linear mixed models and model averaging. Our results show a long‐term advancement of breeding time related to increasing spring temperature and vegetation greenness during a period before hatching. Northern breeders revealed a larger advancement over the years (8.3 days) compared with southern breeders (3.6 days). We observed a relatively stronger effect of temperature and greenness on breeding time in the north. Furthermore, northern birds showed an increase in breeding success over time, while birds breeding at southern and intermediate latitudes showed reduced breeding success in years with higher prehatching temperatures. Our findings with stronger environment effects on breeding time advancement in the north suggest that pied flycatchers are more responsive to weather cues at higher latitudes. Breeding time adjustment and, potentially, low competition help explain the higher long‐term success observed in the north. Reduced breeding success at more southerly latitudes suggests an inability to match breeding time to very early and warm springs, a fate that with continued climate change could also be expected for pied flycatchers and other long‐distance migrants at their very northern breeding range.     

Climate change and community disassembly: impacts of warming on tropical and temperate montane community structure

Both tropical and temperate species are responding to global warming through range shifts, but our understanding of the consequences of these shifts for whole communities is limited. Here, we use current elevational range data for six taxonomic groups spanning 90° in latitude to examine the potential impacts of climate-driven range shifts on community change, or 'disassembly', across latitude. Elevational ranges are smaller at low latitudes for most groups and, as a consequence, tropical communities appear to be more sensitive to temperature increases compared with temperate communities. Under site-specific temperature projections, we generally found greater community disassembly in tropical compared with temperate communities, although this varied by dispersal assumptions. Mountain height can impact the amount of community disassembly, with greater change occurring on smaller mountains. Finally, projected community disassembly was higher for ectotherms than endotherms, although the variation among ectotherms was greater than the variation separating endotherms and ectotherms.     

气候变化背景下1964-2015年秦岭植物物候变化

以1964-2015年物候观测数据为基础,选取17种含乔木、灌木及藤本树种为研究对象,分析探讨了气候变化背景下秦岭地区植物物候变化规律及其差异性。结果表明:(1)52年来,秦岭地区物候始期普遍呈提前趋势,提前速率1.2d/10a,物候末期普遍呈推迟趋势,推迟速率3.5d/10a,物候生长期普遍延长;(2)秦岭地区物候突变发生于20世纪80年代,始期于1985年,末期于1984年。突变后,物候特征发生了显著变化,始期的提前速率较突变前显著加快,末期由突变前的提前趋势转变为极显著的推迟趋势,且变化速率和显著性均高于始期;始期与末期变化均表现出"趋同效应";物候年代际变化趋势显示,始期自2001-2005年起提前速率减缓,植物对气候变化的响应表现出适应性及滞后性。(3)秦岭物候变化存在树种差异,3大类树种始期的提前速率呈藤本、乔木、灌木依次增大,而末期的推迟速率则呈藤本、灌木、乔木依次减小。(4)秦岭物候变化存在南北差异,北坡始期的提前速率均高于南坡,而南坡末期的推迟速率均高于北坡。     

Temperature‐induced water stress in high‐latitude forests in response to natural and anthropogenic warming

The Arctic is particularly sensitive to climate change, but the independent effects of increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration (pCO₂) and temperature on high‐latitude forests are poorly understood. Here, we present a new, annually resolved record of stable carbon isotope (δ¹³C) data determined from Larix cajanderi tree cores collected from far northeastern Siberia in order to investigate the physiological response of these trees to regional warming. The tree‐ring record, which extends from 1912 through 1961 (50 years), targets early twentieth‐century warming (ETCW), a natural warming event in the 1920s to 1940s that was limited to Northern hemisphere high latitudes. Our data show that net carbon isotope fractionation (Δ¹³C), decreased by 1.7‰ across the ETCW, which is consistent with increased water stress in response to climate warming and dryer soils. To investigate whether this signal is present across the northern boreal forest, we compiled published carbon isotope data from 14 high‐latitude sites within Europe, Asia, and North America. The resulting dataset covered the entire twentieth century and spanned both natural ETCW and anthropogenic Late Twentieth‐Century Warming (~0.7 °C per decade). After correcting for a ~1‰ increase in Δ¹³C in response to twentieth century pCO₂ rise, a significant negative relationship (r = ?0.53, P < 0.0001) between the average, annual Δ¹³C values and regional annual temperature anomalies is observed, suggesting a strong control of temperature on the Δ¹³C value of trees growing at high latitudes. We calculate a 17% increase in intrinsic water‐use efficiency within these forests across the twentieth century, of which approximately half is attributed to a decrease in stomatal conductance in order to conserve water in response to drying conditions, with the other half being attributed to increasing pCO₂. We conclude that annual tree‐ring records from northern high‐latitude forests record the effects of climate warming and pCO₂ rise across the twentieth century.     

Browning affects pelagic productivity in northern lakes by surface water warming and carbon fertilization

Global change impacts important environmental drivers for pelagic gross primary production (GPP) in northern lakes, such as temperature, light, nutrient, and inorganic carbon availability. Separate and/or synergistic impacts of these environmental drivers on pelagic GPP remain largely unresolved. Here, we assess key drivers of pelagic GPP by combining detailed depth profiles of summer pelagic GPP with environmental and climatic data across 45 small and shallow lakes across northern Sweden (20 boreal, 6 subarctic, and 19 arctic lakes). We found that across lakes summer pelagic GPP was strongest associated with lake water temperatures, lake carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations impacted by lake water pH, and further moderated by dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations influencing light and nutrient conditions. We further used this dataset to assess the extent of additional DOC-induced warming of epilimnia (here named internal warming), which was especially pronounced in shallow lakes (decreasing 0.96°C for every decreasing m in average lake depth) and increased with higher concentrations of DOC. Additionally, the total pools and relative proportion of dissolved inorganic carbon and DOC, further influenced pelagic GPP with drivers differing slightly among the boreal, subarctic and Arctic biomes. Our study provides novel insights in that global change affects pelagic GPP in northern lakes not only by modifying the organic carbon cycle and light and nutrient conditions, but also through modifications of inorganic carbon supply and temperature. Considering the large-scale impacts and similarities of global warming, browning and recovery from acidification of lakes at higher latitudes throughout the northern hemisphere, these changes are likely to operate on a global scale.     

Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere

Recent warming of Northern Hemisphere (NH) land is well documented and typically greater in winter/spring than other seasons. Physical environment responses to warming have been reported, but not details of large‐area temperate growing season impacts, or consequences for ecosystems and agriculture. To date, hemispheric‐scale measurements of biospheric changes have been confined to remote sensing. However, these studies did not provide detailed data needed for many investigations. Here, we show that a suite of modeled and derived measures (produced from daily maximum–minimum temperatures) linking plant development (phenology) with its basic climatic drivers provide a reliable and spatially extensive method for monitoring general impacts of global warming on the start of the growing season. Results are consistent with prior smaller area studies, confirming a nearly universal quicker onset of early spring warmth (spring indices (SI) first leaf date, ?1.2 days decade^?1), late spring warmth (SI first bloom date, ?1.0 days decade^?1; last spring day below 5°C, ?1.4 days decade^?1), and last spring freeze date (?1.5 days decade^?1) across most temperate NH land regions over the 1955–2002 period. However, dynamics differ among major continental areas with North American first leaf and last freeze date changes displaying a complex spatial relationship. Europe presents a spatial pattern of change, with western continental areas showing last freeze dates getting earlier faster, some central areas having last freeze and first leaf dates progressing at about the same pace, while in portions of Northern and Eastern Europe first leaf dates are getting earlier faster than last freeze dates. Across East Asia last freeze dates are getting earlier faster than first leaf dates.     

Warming increases plant biomass and reduces diversity across continents,latitudes, and species migration scenarios in experimental wetland communities

Atmospheric warming may influence plant productivity and diversity and induce poleward migration of species, altering communities across latitudes. Complicating the picture is that communities from different continents deviate in evolutionary histories, which may modify responses to warming and migration. We used experimental wetland plant communities grown from seed banks as model systems to determine whether effects of warming on biomass production and species richness are consistent across continents, latitudes, and migration scenarios. We collected soil samples from each of three tidal freshwater marshes in estuaries at three latitudes (north, middle, south) on the Atlantic coasts of Europe and North America. In one experiment, we exposed soil seed bank communities from each latitude and continent to ambient and elevated (+2.8 °C) temperatures in the greenhouse. In a second experiment, soil samples were mixed either within each estuary (limited migration) or among estuaries from different latitudes in each continent (complete migration). Seed bank communities of these migration scenarios were also exposed to ambient and elevated temperatures and contrasted with a no‐migration treatment. In the first experiment, warming overall increased biomass (+16%) and decreased species richness (?14%) across latitudes in Europe and North America. Species richness and evenness of south‐latitude communities were less affected by warming than those of middle and north latitudes. In the second experiment, warming also stimulated biomass and lowered species richness. In addition, complete migration led to increased species richness (+60% in North America, + 100% in Europe), but this higher diversity did not translate into increased biomass. Species responded idiosyncratically to warming, but Lythrum salicaria and Bidens sp. increased significantly in response to warming in both continents. These results reveal for the first time consistent impacts of warming on biomass and species richness for temperate wetland plant communities across continents, latitudes, and migration scenarios.     

Latitudinal effects on treehopper species richness (Hornoptera: Membracidae)

Abstract. 1. Membracid species richness declines with increasing latitude in the Western hemisphere but begins to increase again in temperate regions. In northern latitudes this transition occurs in the highlands of Mexico and is the result of the emergence of a new tribe and greater host specialization.
2. The relationship between number of species per genus and latitude is parabolic.
3. We suggest the low number of species per genus in tropical regions may be due to the lack of host specialization and reduced coordination of life history with host phenology.     

Climate controls on vegetation phenological patterns in northern mid- and high latitudes inferred from MODIS data

Recent studies using both field measurements and satellite-derived-vegetation indices have demonstrated that global warming is influencing vegetation growth and phenology. To accurately predict the future response of vegetation to climate variation, a thorough understanding of vegetation phenological cycles and their relationship to temperature and precipitation is required. In this paper, vegetation phenological transition dates identified using data from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) in 2001 are linked with MODIS land surface temperature (LST) data from the northern hemisphere between 35°N and 70°N. The results show well-defined patterns dependent on latitude, in which vegetation greenup gradually migrates northward starting in March, and dormancy spreads southward from late September. Among natural vegetation land-cover types, the growing-season length for forests is strongly correlated with variation in mean annual LST. For urban areas, the onset of greenup is 4–9 days earlier on average, and the onset of dormancy is about 2–16 days later, relative to adjacent natural vegetation. This difference (especially for urban vs. forests) is apparently related to urban heat island effects that result in both the average spring temperature and the mean annual temperature in urban areas being about 1–3°C higher relative to rural areas. The results also indicate that urban heat island effects on vegetation phenology are stronger in North America than in Europe and Asia. Finally, the onset of forest greenup at continental scales can be effectively described using a thermal time-chilling model, which can be used to infer the delay or advance of greenup onset in relation to climatic warming at global scale.     

Is climate warming more consequential towards poles? The phenology of Lepidoptera in Finland

The magnitude and direction of phenological shifts from climate warming could be predictably variable across the planet depending upon the nature of physiological controls on phenology, the thermal sensitivity of the developmental processes and global patterns in the climate warming. We tested this with respect to the flight phenology of adult nocturnal moths (3.33 million captures of 334 species) that were sampled at sites in southern and northern Finland during 1993–2012 (with years 2005–2012 treated as an independent model validation data set). We compared eight competing models of physiological controls on flight phenology to each species and found strong support for thermal controls of phenology in 66% of the species generations. Among species with strong thermal control of phenology in both the south and north, the average development rate was higher in northern vs. southern populations at 10 °C, but about the same at 15 and 20 °C. With a 3 °C increase in temperature (approximating A2 scenario of IPPC for 2090–2099 relative to 1980–1999) these species were predicted to advance their phenology on average by 17 (SE ± 0.3) days in the south vs. 13 (±0.4) days in the north. The higher development rates at low temperatures of poleward populations makes them less sensitive to climate warming, which opposes the tendency for stronger phenological advances in the north from greater increases in temperature.