Simple heuristics and rules of thumb: where psychologists and behavioural biologists might meet

The Centre for Adaptive Behaviour and Cognition (ABC) has hypothesised that much human decision-making can be described by simple algorithmic process models (heuristics). This paper explains this approach and relates it to research in biology on rules of thumb, which we also review. As an example of a simple heuristic, consider the lexicographic strategy of Take The Best for choosing between two alternatives: cues are searched in turn until one discriminates, then search stops and all other cues are ignored. Heuristics consist of building blocks, and building blocks exploit evolved or learned abilities such as recognition memory; it is the complexity of these abilities that allows the heuristics to be simple. Simple heuristics have an advantage in making decisions fast and with little information, and in avoiding overfitting. Furthermore, humans are observed to use simple heuristics. Simulations show that the statistical structures of different environments affect which heuristics perform better, a relationship referred to as ecological rationality. We contrast ecological rationality with the stronger claim of adaptation. Rules of thumb from biology provide clearer examples of adaptation because animals can be studied in the environments in which they evolved. The range of examples is also much more diverse. To investigate them, biologists have sometimes used similar simulation techniques to ABC, but many examples depend on empirically driven approaches. ABC's theoretical framework can be useful in connecting some of these examples, particularly the scattered literature on how information from different cues is integrated. Optimality modelling is usually used to explain less detailed aspects of behaviour but might more often be redirected to investigate rules of thumb.     

Connecting behavioural biologists and psychologists: Clarifying distinctions and suggestions for further work

This article is a reply to the commentaries on our target article, which relates our group's work on simple heuristics to biological research on rules of thumb. Several commentators contrasted both these approaches with behaviour analysis, in which the patterns of behaviour investigated in the laboratory are claimed to be near-universal attributes, rather than specific to particular appropriate environments. We question this universality. For instance, learning phenomena such Pavlovian or operant conditioning have mostly been studied only in a few generalist species that learn easily; in many natural situations the environment hinders learning as an adaptive strategy. Other supposedly general phenomena such as impulsiveness and matching are outcome models, which several different models of simple cognitive processes might explain. We clarify some confusions about optimisation, optima and optimality modelling. Lastly, we say a little more about how heuristics might be selected, learnt and tuned to suit the current environment.     

Uncertainty causes humans to use social heuristics and to cooperate more: An experiment among Belgian university students

When humans engage in social interactions, they are often uncertain about what the possible outcomes are. Because of this, highly sophisticated cooperation strategies may not be very effective. Indeed, some models instead predict the emergence of ‘social heuristics’: simple cooperation strategies that perform well across a range of different situations. Here, we put these predictions to the test in a large-scale interactive decision making experiment. We confronted participants (mostly Belgian university students) with a broad range of cooperative interactions, systematically varying the uncertainty participants had about the consequences of cooperating. As expected, we find that uncertainty about the payoff consequences of cooperation causes individuals to use social heuristics. Additionally, these heuristics directly cause a marked increase in cooperation compared to the treatment without uncertainty, even in situations where cooperation can never be beneficial. These findings provide a new explanation for why human social behavior often violates the standard predictions of economic and evolutionary theory.     

Heuristics or general learning processes?

The concept of heuristics implies that the rules governing choice behavior may vary with ecological constraints. Behavior analysis, in contrast, seeks general principles that transcend specific situations. To the extent that search is successful, the concept of heuristics is unlikely to play a significant role in the analysis of animal behavior.     

Clinical expertise and the limits of explicit knowledge

This article questions the view that medical decision-making can be reduced to a series of explicit rules, adherence to which will necessarily improve outcomes. Instead, it attempts to rehabilitate the concepts of clinical expertise and clinical experience, arguing that medicine, like other areas of expertise, depends on forms of implicit knowledge that can only be acquired through years of experience. Recent research on "fast and frugal" heuristics in medical decision-making suggest that statistical techniques are not necessarily superior to clinician judgment. Since clinical decisions are made on individual patients within the constraint of limited information, they must rest on clinical expertise and not clinical rules.     

PRINCIPLISM AND THE ETHICAL APPRAISAL OF CLINICAL TRIALS

For nearly two decades, the process of reviewing the ethical merit of research involving human subjects has been based on the application of principles initially described in the U.S. National Commission's Belmont Report, and later articulated more fully by Beauchamp and Childress in their Principles of Biomedical Ethics. Recently, the use of ethical principles for deliberating about moral problems in medicine and research, referred to in the pejorative sense as “principlism”, has come under scrutiny. In this paper we argue that these principles can provide a foundation for the source of ethical appraisal of human research, but are not themselves wholly adequate for this purpose. Therefore, we further propose that (1) principles should be understood as heuristics that can be “specified” as described by DeGrazia (1992), and (2) that the principle-based approach should be supplemented by formally incorporating “sensitivity to context” into the evaluation of clinical trials     

Principlism and the ethical appraisal of clinical trials

For nearly two decades, the process of reviewing the ethical merit of research involving human subjects has been based on the application of principles initially described in the U.S. National Commission's Belmont Report, and later articulated more fully by Beauchamp and Childress in their Principles of Biomedical Ethics. Recently, the use of ethical principles for deliberating about moral problems in medicine and research, referred to in the pejorative sense as "principlism", has come under scrutiny. In this paper we argue that these principles can provide a foundation for the source of ethical appraisal of human research, but are not themselves wholly adequate for this purpose. Therefore, we further propose that (1) principles should be understood as heuristics that can be "specified" as described by De Grazia (1992), and (2) that the principle-based approach should be supplemented by formally incorporating "sensitivity to context" into the evaluation of clinical trials.     

Corvids avoid odd evaluation by following simple rules in a risky exchange task

In their natural environment, animals often make decisions crucial for survival, such as choosing the best patch or food, or the best partner to cooperate. The choice can be compared to a gamble with an outcome that is predictable but not certain, such as rolling a dice. In economics, such a situation is called a risky context. Several models show that although individuals can generally evaluate the odds of each potential outcome, they can be subject to errors of judgment or choose according to decision-making heuristics (simple decision rules). In non-human primates, similar errors of judgment have been reported and we have recently shown that they also use a decisional heuristics when confronted with a risky choice in an exchange task. This suggests a common evolutionary origin to the mechanisms underlying decision-making under risk in primates. However, whether the same mechanisms are also present in more distantly related taxa needs to be further investigated. Other social species, like corvids, are renowned for their advanced cognitive skills and may show similar responses. Here, we analyse data on corvids (carrion crows, hooded crows, common ravens and rooks) tested in a risky exchange task comparable to the one used in non-human primates. We investigated whether corvids could exchange according to the odds of success or, alternatively, whether they used a heuristic similar to the one used by non-human primates. Instead, most corvids chose a course of action (either a low or high exchange rate) that remained constant throughout the study. In general, corvids’ mean exchange rates were lower compared to non-human primates, indicating that they were either risk-adverse or that they do not possess the cognitive capabilities to evaluate odds. Further studies are required to evaluate the flexibility in exchange abilities of these birds in exchange abilities of these birds.     

棉花氮肥和水分运筹的动态知识模型

通过分析和提炼棉花氮肥运筹和水分管理的最新研究资料,在综合考虑气候条件、土壤理化性质、产量目标、品种特性等影响因子的基础上,根据养分平衡原理和水分需求规律,建立了棉花氮肥和水分运筹的动态知识模型．模型可用于精确定量不同环境和不同产量目标下的氮肥和水分需求总量及其在不同生育时期的分配比例等．利用不同生态点、不同品种、不同土壤类型和不同产量目标等资料对氮肥和水分运筹知识模型进行了验证．结果表明模型具有较好的决策性和适应性．     

Maximum likelihood of phylogenetic networks

MOTIVATION: Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) is believed to be ubiquitous among bacteria, and plays a major role in their genome diversification as well as their ability to develop resistance to antibiotics. In light of its evolutionary significance and implications for human health, developing accurate and efficient methods for detecting and reconstructing HGT is imperative. RESULTS: In this article we provide a new HGT-oriented likelihood framework for many problems that involve phylogeny-based HGT detection and reconstruction. Beside the formulation of various likelihood criteria, we show that most of these problems are NP-hard, and offer heuristics for efficient and accurate reconstruction of HGT under these criteria. We implemented our heuristics and used them to analyze biological as well as synthetic data. In both cases, our criteria and heuristics exhibited very good performance with respect to identifying the correct number of HGT events as well as inferring their correct location on the species tree. AVAILABILITY: Implementation of the criteria as well as heuristics and hardness proofs are available from the authors upon request. Hardness proofs can also be downloaded at http://www.cs.tau.ac.il/~tamirtul/MLNET/Supp-ML.pdf     

Evaluating drivers of vulnerability to climate change: a guide for insect conservation strategies

Ongoing global climate change presents serious challenges in conservation biology, forcing us to revisit previous tools and principles based on how species may respond to novel climatic conditions. There is currently a major gap between predictions of species vulnerability and management strategies, despite the fact that linking these areas is fundamental for future biodiversity conservation. Herein, we evaluate what drives vulnerability to climate change in three Iberian endemic water beetles, representing three independent colonizations of the same habitat, employing comparative thermal physiology, species distribution models and estimations of species dispersal capacity. We derive conservation strategies for each species based on their differential capacity to persist and/or potential to shift their ranges in response to global warming. We demonstrate that species may be affected by climatic warming in very different ways, despite having broadly similar ecological and biogeographical traits. The proposed framework provides an effective complement to traditional species vulnerability assessments, and could aid the development of more effective conservation strategies in the face of global warming.     

Management of invasive plants through ecological resistance

Despite debates on the real impact of plant invasion on native biodiversity, there remain many situations where exotic invasive plants must be managed and habitats restored. Restoration practices that build on plant community assembly principles could be useful to delay or prevent re-invasion after control, but there are still few syntheses of the biodiversity theory, ecological mechanisms and experimental evidence relevant to invasive plant management, possibly delaying applications. To provide such a synthesis, we review current knowledge on three key determinants of invasion success: biotic resistance, abiotic constraints, and propagule pressure. We elaborate on the ecological mechanisms at play for each determinant and emphasize, using case studies, their relevance for invasive plant management and ecological restoration. We find evidence that restoring a plant cover can enhance invasion resistance, but the challenge for both research and field applications is to understand how multiple determinants interact in relation to species traits in the fields. Failure to recognize these interactions and their effect on community assembly processes may explain some of the mixed species responses observed. While we need control and restoration case studies with local species at different sites, the development of a coherent, dynamic and adaptive framework around biotic/ecological resistance will have to go beyond the idiosyncrasy of the many species and systems being tested. Emphasizing the functional diversity of the restored community seems a promising approach when facing potentially multiple invaders and/or fluctuating abiotic conditions.     

Ethical problems in conducting research in acute epidemics: the Pfizer meningitis study in Nigeria as an illustration

The ethics of conducting research in epidemic situations have yet to account fully for differences in the proportion and acuteness of epidemics, among other factors. While epidemics most often arise from infectious diseases, not all infectious diseases are of epidemic proportions, and not all epidemics occur acutely. These and other variations constrain the generalization of ethical decision-making and impose ethical demands on the individual researcher in a way not previously highlighted. This paper discusses a number of such constraints and impositions. It applies the ethical principles enunciated by Emmanuel et al. ¹ to the controversial Pfizer study in Nigeria in order to highlight the particular ethical concerns of acute epidemic research, and suggest ways of meeting such challenges.
The paper recommends that research during epidemics should be partly evaluated on its own merits in order to determine its ethical appropriateness to the specific situation. Snap decisions to conduct research during acute epidemics should be resisted. Community engagement, public notification and good information management are needed to promote the ethics of conducting research during acute epidemics. Individual consent is most at risk of being compromised, and every effort should be made to ensure that it is maintained and valid. Use of data safety management boards should be routine. Acute epidemics also present opportunities to enhance the social value of research and maximize its benefits to communities.
Ethical research is possible in acute epidemics, if the potential challenges are thought of ahead of time and appropriate precautions taken.     

Thermodynamic view on decision-making process: emotions as a potential power vector of realization of the choice

This research is devoted to possible mechanisms of decision-making in frames of thermodynamic principles. It is also shown that the decision-making system in reply to emotion includes vector component which seems to be often a necessary condition to transfer system from one state to another. The phases of decision-making system can be described as supposed to be nonequilibrium and irreversible to which thermodynamics laws are applied. The mathematical model of a decision choice, proceeding from principles of the nonlinear dynamics considering instability of movement and bifurcation is offered. The thermodynamic component of decision-making process on the basis of vector transfer of energy induced by emotion at the given time is surveyed. It is proposed a three-modular model of decision making based on principles of thermodynamics. Here it is suggested that at entropy impact due to effect of emotion, on the closed system—the human brain,—initially arises chaos, then after fluctuations of possible alternatives which were going on—reactions of brain zones in reply to external influence, an order is forming and there is choice of alternatives, according to primary entrance conditions and a state of the closed system. Entropy calculation of a choice expectation of negative and positive emotion shows judgment possibility of existence of “the law of emotion conservation” in accordance with several experimental data.     

Cognitive Representations and Cognitive Processing of Team-Specific Tactics in Soccer

Two core elements for the coordination of different actions in sport are tactical information and knowledge about tactical situations. The current study describes two experiments to learn about the memory structure and the cognitive processing of tactical information. Experiment 1 investigated the storage and structuring of team-specific tactics in humans’ long-term memory with regard to different expertise levels. Experiment 2 investigated tactical decision-making skills and the corresponding gaze behavior, in presenting participants the identical match situations in a reaction time task. The results showed that more experienced soccer players, in contrast to less experienced soccer players, possess a functionally organized cognitive representation of team-specific tactics in soccer. Moreover, the more experienced soccer players reacted faster in tactical decisions, because they needed less fixations of similar duration as compared to less experienced soccer players. Combined, these experiments offer evidence that a functionally organized memory structure leads to a reaction time and a perceptual advantage in tactical decision-making in soccer. The discussion emphasizes theoretical and applied implications of the current results of the study.     

Stochastic Time Models of Syllable Structure

Drawing on phonology research within the generative linguistics tradition, stochastic methods, and notions from complex systems, we develop a modelling paradigm linking phonological structure, expressed in terms of syllables, to speech movement data acquired with 3D electromagnetic articulography and X-ray microbeam methods. The essential variable in the models is syllable structure. When mapped to discrete coordination topologies, syllabic organization imposes systematic patterns of variability on the temporal dynamics of speech articulation. We simulated these dynamics under different syllabic parses and evaluated simulations against experimental data from Arabic and English, two languages claimed to parse similar strings of segments into different syllabic structures. Model simulations replicated several key experimental results, including the fallibility of past phonetic heuristics for syllable structure, and exposed the range of conditions under which such heuristics remain valid. More importantly, the modelling approach consistently diagnosed syllable structure proving resilient to multiple sources of variability in experimental data including measurement variability, speaker variability, and contextual variability. Prospects for extensions of our modelling paradigm to acoustic data are also discussed.     

A pseudo-boolean framework for computing rearrangement distances between genomes with duplicates.

Computing genomic distances between whole genomes is a fundamental problem in comparative genomics. Recent researches have resulted in different genomic distance definitions, for example, number of breakpoints, number of common intervals, number of conserved intervals, and Maximum Adjacency Disruption number. Unfortunately, it turns out that, in presence of duplications, most problems are NP-hard, and hence several heuristics have been recently proposed. However, while it is relatively easy to compare heuristics between them, until now very little is known about the absolute accuracy of these heuristics. Therefore, there is a great need for algorithmic approaches that compute exact solutions for these genomic distances. In this paper, we present a novel generic pseudo-boolean approach for computing the exact genomic distance between two whole genomes in presence of duplications, and put strong emphasis on common intervals under the maximum matching model. Of particular importance, we show three heuristics which provide very good results on a well-known public dataset of gamma-Proteobacteria.     

QuickJoin--fast neighbour-joining tree reconstruction

We have built a tool for fast construction of very large phylogenetic trees. The tool uses heuristics for speeding up the neighbour-joining algorithm-while still constructing the same tree as the original neighbour-joining algorithm-making it possible to construct trees for 8000 species in <10 min on a single desktop PC. In comparison, the same task takes more than 30 min using the QuickTree neighbour-joining implementation.