Reduction in mortality after inappropriate early discharge from intensive care unit: logistic regression triage model

ObjectiveTo develop a predictive model to triage patients for discharge from intensive care units to reduce mortality after discharge.DesignLogistic regression analyses and modelling of data from patients who were discharged from intensive care units.SettingGuy''s hospital intensive care unit and 19 other UK intensive care units from 1989 to 1998.Participants5475 patients for the development of the model and 8449 for validation.ResultsMortality after discharge from intensive care was up to 12.4%. The triage model identified patients at risk from death on the ward with a sensitivity of 65.5% and specificity of 87.6%, and an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.86. Variables in the model were age, end stage disease, length of stay in unit, cardiothoracic surgery, and physiology. In the validation dataset the 34% of the patients identified as at risk had a discharge mortality of 25% compared with a 4% mortality among those not at risk.ConclusionsThe discharge mortality of at risk patients may be reduced by 39% if they remain in intensive care units for another 48 hours. The discharge triage model to identify patients at risk from too early and inappropriate discharge from intensive care may help doctors to make the difficult clinical decision of whom to discharge to make room for a patient requiring urgent admission to the unit. If confirmed, this study has implications on the provision of resources.

What is already known on this topic

In the United Kingdom, the mortality of patients who die on the ward after discharge from intensive care is unacceptably high (9% to 27%)Indirect evidence has shown that this is due to too early and inappropriate discharge from intensive care that has increased over the past 10 years

What this study adds

A triage model identifies patients at risk from inappropriate discharge from intensive careMortality after discharge from intensive care may be reduced by 39% if these patients were to stay in intensive care for another 48 hoursAn estimated 16% more beds are required if mortality after discharge from intensive care is to be reduced     

INTENSIVE REHABILITATION—Recent Experience in a Chronic Disease Hospital

An intensive rehabilitation program for persons with severe physical disabilities was carried on over a two-year period in a 35-bed unit at Rancho Los Amigos Hospital, a chronic disease hospital.Eighty-five patients were released (69 adults, 16 children) from the program after an average stay of six and a half months. Seventy-one per cent of these were discharged to their homes and the remainder were transferred to convalescent wards so much improved that they required less care, even worked on the grounds.Over half of the adult patients discharged to their homes became employed, not counting the women who resumed housework.The average hospitalization for patients in the same hospital without this program is three and a half years. Thus, despite a much higher cost per day for the patients in the intensive rehabilitation program, the total cost is about $7,640 less per patient discharged from the hospital.In addition the shorter period in hospital helps meet the ever-increasing demand for chronic disease beds.     

STAFFING RATIOS IN A REHABILITATION PROGRAM

Staffing ratios for professional personnel functioning in an intensive physical rehabilitation program at Rancho Los Amigos Hospital, representing experience with treatment of patients with severe physical disabilities on the one hand and budget pressures and procedures on the other, are as follows:Physician to patients..... 1:33Nursing service per patient per day (including registered nurse, licensed vocational nurse, attendant).....4 hoursPhysical therapy to patients..... 1:7Occupational therapy to patients.... 1:14Medical social service to patients.... 1:35Psychology or vocational counselor to patients (needing service)..... 1:35     

TUBERCULOSIS AND REHABILITATION—Dynamic Physical Restoration of Patients with Active Disease

In a study carried out over a period of seven years, 454 patients with active tuberculosis were placed on a program of intensive physical exercise, combined with chemotherapy and antibiotics.In the initial group of 155 patients studied from 1956-1960, the intensive rehabilitation program was not instituted until the last two months of the patient''s stay in hospital, whereas in a late phase of the study 1960-1963 the dynamic physical restoration program was instituted early for 299 patients and was carried on simultaneously with chemotherapy and antibiotics.The beneficial results of these programs appear to show that the concept of minimum exercise and prolonged bed rest in the hospital and a prolonged convalescent period after discharge, is no longer justified.     

Hands as route of transmission for Klebsiella species.

Seventeen per cent of the staff of an intensive care ward were found to have Klebsiella spp contaminating their hands, and these strains could be related to serotypes infecting or colonising patients in the ward on the same day. We identified some simple ward procedures that resulted in contamination of nurses'' hands with 100-1000 klebsiellae per hand. Klebsiellae survived on artifically inoculated hands for up to 150 minutes. Handwashing with chlorhexidine hand cleanser reliably gave 98-100% reduction in hand counts, and the introduction of routine handwashing by staff before moving from one patient to the next was associated with a significant and sustained reduction in the number of patients colonised or infected with Klebsiella spp. Staff clothing was occasionally contaminated, but ward air and dust rarely contained klebsiellae.     

Psychiatric illness in inpatients with neurological disorders: patients' views on discussion of emotional problems with neurologists.

The prevalence of psychiatric morbidity in inpatients with neurological disorders and the extent to which it is detected by neurologists were measured by using a two stage model of psychiatric assessment and from information recorded in the patients'' medical notes. The prevalence of psychiatric morbidity was estimated as 39%, of which 72% was unrecognised by the neurologists. Only a minority of patients with an uncertain physical diagnosis had a psychiatric illness, showing the error in assuming that a patient''s physical symptoms arise from a psychological disturbance if an organic aetiology cannot be determined. When the patients were interviewed on their discharge from hospital they were divided on whether they had wished to discuss their mood with neurologists while they were in hospital. The reasons that they gave suggested that interactions between patients and doctors and the lack of ward facilities for private consultations with doctors are important determinants of hidden psychiatric morbidity in medical inpatients.     

Collaborative systematic review of the randomised trials of organised inpatient (stroke unit) care after stroke. Stroke Unit Trialists' Collaboration.

OBJECTIVES: To define the characteristics and determine the effectiveness of organised inpatient (stroke unit) care compared with conventional care in reducing death, dependency, and the requirement for long term institutional care after stroke. DESIGN: Systematic review of all randomised trials which compared organised inpatient stroke care with the contemporary conventional care. Specialist stroke unit interventions were defined as either a ward or team exclusively managing stroke (dedicated stroke unit) or a ward or team specialising in the management of disabling illnesses, which include stroke (mixed assessment/rehabilitation unit). Conventional care was usually provided in a general medical ward. SETTING: 19 trials (of which three had two treatment arms). 12 trials randomised a total of 2060 patients to a dedicated stroke unit or a general medical ward, six trials (647 patients) compared a mixed assessment/rehabilitation unit with a general medical ward, and four trials (542 patients) compared a dedicated stroke unit with a mixed assessment/rehabilitation unit. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Death, institutionalisation, and dependency. RESULTS: Organised inpatient (stroke unit) care, when compared with conventional care, was best characterised by coordinated multidisciplinary rehabilitation, programmes of education and training in stroke, and specialisation of medical and nursing staff. The stroke unit care was usually housed in a geographically discrete ward. Stroke unit care was associated with a long term (median one year follow up) reduction of death (odds ratio 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 0.98; P < 0.05) and of the combined poor outcomes of death or dependency (0.69, 0.59 to 0.82; P < 0.0001) and death or institutionalisation (0.75, 0.65 to 0.87; P < 0.0001). Beneficial effects were independent of patients'' age, sex, or stroke severity and of variations in stroke unit organisation. Length of stay in a hospital or institution was reduced by 8% (95% confidence interval 3% to 13%) compared with conventional care but there was considerable heterogeneity of results. CONCLUSIONS: Organised stroke unit care resulted in long term reductions in death, dependency, and the need for institutional care. The observed benefits were not restricted to any particular subgroup of patients or model of stroke unit care. No systematic increase in the use of resources (in terms of length of stay) was apparent.     

Attitudes to viability of preterm infants and their effect on figures for perinatal mortality.

OBJECTIVE--To examine how local attitudes to management of extreme preterm labour can influence data on perinatal mortality. DESIGN--One year prospective study in a geographically defined population. SETTING--The 17 perinatal units of Trent region. PATIENTS--All preterm infants of less than or equal to 32 weeks'' gestation in the Trent region. INTERVENTIONS--Infants who had been considered viable at birth were referred for intensive care; those who had been considered non-viable received terminal care. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Whether each infant was born alive, dead, or alive but considered non-viable. RESULTS--Large differences were observed among units in the rates of delivery of infants of less than or equal to 27 weeks'' gestation (rates varied from 7.2 to 0 per 1000 births). These differences were not present in the data relating to infants of between 28 and 32 weeks'' gestation. The variation seemed to result from different approaches to the management of extreme preterm labour--that is, whether management took place in a labour ward or a gynaecology ward. CONCLUSIONS--Place of delivery of premature babies (less than or equal to 27 weeks'' gestation) may influence classification and hence figures for perinatal mortality. In addition, the fact that the onus of judgment regarding viability and classification is often placed on relatively junior staff might also affect the figures for perinatal mortality. The introduction of a standard recording system for all infants greater than 500 g would be advantageous.     

Palliatieve zorg op een chronische psychiatrische afdeling voor ouderen

Elderly, psychiatric patients admitted to a long-stay ward become physically ill and die. Which care can be offered on the ward and which cases require transferring a patient to specialized psychiatric-medical wards or a hospice? We studied 40 cases of death by malignancy in a clinic for elderly, long-term admitted psychiatric patients. Transferring the patient to such a ward was never indicated. Our population appeared to have a lack of awareness of their illness and expressed very few physical complaints. The possibilities of curative treatment of the malignancy were limited; the emphasis of the treatment was on palliative care. Because of the intensive support given on the patients ward the patients were able to die in peace. Deep sedation was never required.     

Assessment of objectively measured physical activity levels in individuals with intellectual disabilities with and without Down's syndrome

Objective

To investigate, using accelerometers, the levels of physical activity being undertaken by individuals with intellectual disabilities with and without Down''s syndrome.

Methods

One hundred and fifty two individuals with intellectual disabilities aged 12–70 years from East and South-East England. Physical activity levels in counts per minute (counts/min), steps per day (steps/day), and minutes of sedentary, light, moderate, vigorous, and moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) measured with a uni-axial accelerometer (Actigraph GT1M) for seven days.

Results

No individuals with intellectual disabilities met current physical activity recommendations. Males were more active than females. There was a trend for physical activity to decline and sedentary behaviour to increase with age, and for those with more severe levels of intellectual disability to be more sedentary and less physically active, however any relationship was not significant when adjusted for confounding variables. Participants with Down''s syndrome engaged in significantly less physical activity than those with intellectual disabilities without Down''s syndrome and levels of activity declined significantly with age.

Conclusions

Individuals with intellectual disabilities, especially those with Down''s syndrome may be at risk of developing diseases associated with physical inactivity. There is a need for well-designed, accessible, preventive health promotion strategies and interventions designed to raise the levels of physical activity for individuals with intellectual disabilities. We propose that there are physiological reasons why individuals with Down''s syndrome have particularly low levels of physical activity that also decline markedly with age.     

Neuroplasticity. Key to recovery after central nervous system injury.

After an injury to the central nervous system, physical and cognitive impairments and disabilities often abate. These gains may be partly mediated by mechanisms that allow reorganizing of the structure and function within gray and white matter. The potential to enhance neurologic recovery by manipulating the brain and spinal cord must now be considered in clinical practice. Today''s rehabilitation routines may not encourage maximum recovery. Indeed, some commonly used physical and pharmacologic methods could inhibit the restoration of motor activities such as walking. On the other hand, therapies that use our expanding knowledge of neuroplasticity could lead to better results for patients.     

Doctors and patients don't agree: cross sectional study of patients' and doctors' perceptions and assessments of disability in multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the judgments of clinicians on which domains of health in the short form questionnaire (SF-36) would be most important to patients with multiple sclerosis with the opinions of patients themselves; to compare assessment of physical disability in multiple sclerosis by a clinician using Kurtzke''s expanded disability status scale and a non-clinically qualified assistant using the Office of Population Census and Surveys'' (OPCS) disability scale with self assessment of disability and other domains of health related quality of life by patients using the SF-36 and the EuroQol questionnaire; and to compare the scores of patients for each domain of the SF-36 with control data matched for age and sex. DESIGN: Cross sectional study. SETTING: Clinical department of neurology, Edinburgh. SUBJECTS: 42 consecutive patients with multiple sclerosis attending a neurology outpatient clinic for review or a neurology ward for rehabilitation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Scores on the SF-36; EuroQol; Kurtzke''s expanded disability status scale; the OPCS disability scale. RESULTS: Patients and clinicians disagreed on which domains of health status were most important (chi 2 = 21, df = 7, P = 0.003). Patients'' assessment of their physical disability using the physical functioning domain of the SF-36 was highly correlated with the clinicians'' assessment (r = -0.87, P < 0.001) and the non-clinical assessment (r = -0.90, P < 0.001). However, none of the measures of physical disability correlated with overall health related quality of life measured with EuroQol, Quality of life correlated with vitality, general health, and mental health in the SF-36, each of which patients rated as more important than clinicians and for each of which patients scored lower than the controls. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with multiple sclerosis and possibly those with other chronic diseases are less concerned than their clinicians about physical disability in their illness. Clinical trials in multiple sclerosis should assess the effect of treatment on the other elements of health status that patients consider important, which are also affected by the disease process, are more closely related to overall health related quality of life, and may well be adversely affected by side effects of treatment.     

Attitudes and access: advancing the rights of people with disabilities

Barriers to movement and communication in the physical environment prevent people with disabilities from enjoying the same rights, privileges and opportunities as other members of society. The guidelines presented by Drs. Karen E. Jones and Itamar E. Tamari in this issue (page 647) remind us that access to physicians'' offices is one area in which improvement is greatly needed. But, as Jones and Tamari acknowledge, accessibility involves more than the removal of physical barriers. The greatest obstacles faced by disabled people are often attitudinal ones. Programs that place responsibility for rehabilitation and integration within the community can foster a better understanding of the issues. Family physicians and other professionals must work with communities to change the attitudes, beliefs and behaviours of policy-makers and the public. Until significant progress is made on this front, problems of access that serve to marginalize people with disabilities will persist.     

Randomised controlled trial to compare surgical stabilisation of the lumbar spine with an intensive rehabilitation programme for patients with chronic low back pain: the MRC spine stabilisation trial

Objectives To assess the clinical effectiveness of surgical stabilisation (spinal fusion) compared with intensive rehabilitation for patients with chronic low back pain.Design Multicentre randomised controlled trial.Setting 15 secondary care orthopaedic and rehabilitation centres across the United Kingdom.Participants 349 participants aged 18-55 with chronic low back pain of at least one year''s duration who were considered candidates for spinal fusion.Intervention Lumbar spine fusion or an intensive rehabilitation programme based on principles of cognitive behaviour therapy.Main outcome measure The primary outcomes were the Oswestry disability index and the shuttle walking test measured at baseline and two years after randomisation. The SF-36 instrument was used as a secondary outcome measure.Results 176 participants were assigned to surgery and 173 to rehabilitation. 284 (81%) provided follow-up data at 24 months. The mean Oswestry disability index changed favourably from 46.5 (SD 14.6) to 34.0 (SD 21.1) in the surgery group and from 44.8 (SD14.8) to 36.1 (SD 20.6) in the rehabilitation group. The estimated mean difference between the groups was –4.1 (95% confidence interval –8.1 to –0.1, P = 0.045) in favour of surgery. No significant differences between the treatment groups were observed in the shuttle walking test or any of the other outcome measures.Conclusions Both groups reported reductions in disability during two years of follow-up, possibly unrelated to the interventions. The statistical difference between treatment groups in one of the two primary outcome measures was marginal and only just reached the predefined minimal clinical difference, and the potential risk and additional cost of surgery also need to be considered. No clear evidence emerged that primary spinal fusion surgery was any more beneficial than intensive rehabilitation.     

Long-Term Health Related Quality of Life following Intensive Care during Treatment for Haematological Malignancies

Objective

Long-term health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was determined for patients admitted to the haematology ward who needed intensive care treatment (H-IC+) and compared with those who did not (H-IC−) as well as with that for patients admitted to the general ICU (nH-IC+).

Methods

A cross-sectional study was carried out median 18 months after admission by employing the short form-36, checklist for individual strength, cognitive failure questionnaire and hospital anxiety and depression scale.

Results

27 (79%) of the 34 H-IC+ patients approached, and 93 (85%) of the 109 H-IC− patients approached replied. Data were adjusted for relevant covariates and matched with those of 149 patients in the general ICU. Apart from the lower role-physical functioning score for H-IC+ (P = 0.04) no other differences were found between H-IC+ and H-IC−. Groups H-IC+ and nH-IC+ evaluated their HRQoL on SF-36 similarly, except for the lower aggregated physical component summary (PCS) for H-IC+ (P<0.0001). After adjusting for PCS, no significant differences in CIS, CFQ and HADS were observed between the groups.

Conclusions

Eighteen months after admission, patients treated for haematological malignancies reported similar HRQoL, whether or not they had received intensive care treatment, but reported a lower PCS than those of patients in the general ICU. Hence, there is no reason to assume that admission to the ICU has a negative impact on long-term HRQoL, so this should not affect the decision whether or not to transfer patients with haematological malignancies to the ICU.     

Remedial therapy after stroke: a randomised controlled trial.

Of 1094 patients with a confirmed stroke admitted to Northwick Park, a district general hospital, 364 (33%) died while in hospital, 215 (20%) were fully recovered when discharged, and 329 (30%) were too frail or too ill from diseases other than stroke to be considered for active rehabilitation. Only 121 (11%) were suitable for intensive treatment. They and 12 patients referred direct to outpatients were allocated at random to one of three different courses of rehabilitation. Intensive was compared with conventional rehabilitation and with a third regimen which included no routine rehabilitation, but under which patients were encouraged to continue with exercises taught while in hospital and were regularly seen at home by a health visitor. Progress at three months and 12 months was measured by an index of activities of daily living. Improvement was greatest in those receiving intensive treatment, intermediate in those receiving conventional treatment, and least in those receiving no routine treatment. Decreasing intensity of treatment was associated with a significant increase in the proportions of patients who deteriorated and in the extent to which they deteriorated. Probably only a few stroke patients, mostly men, are suitable for intensive outpatient rehabilitation, but for those patients the treatment is effective and realistic.     

What is important, what needs treating? How GPs perceive older patients' multiple health problems: a mixed method research study

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: GPs increasingly deal with multiple health problems of their older patients. They have to apply a hierarchical management approach that considers priorities to balance competing needs for treatment. Yet, the practice of setting individual priorities in older patients is largely unexplored. This paper analyses the GPs' perceptions on important and unimportant health problems and how these affect their treatment. METHODS: GPs appraised the importance of health problems for a purposive sample of their older patients in semi-structured interviews. Prior to the interviews, the GPs had received a list of their patients' health problems resulting from a geriatric assessment and were asked to rate the importance of each identified problem. In the interviews the GPs subsequently explained why they considered certain health problems important or not and how this affected treatment. Data was analysed using qualitative content analysis and quantitative methods. RESULTS: The problems GPs perceive as important are those that are medical and require active treatment or monitoring, or that induce empathy or awareness but cannot be assisted further. Unimportant problems are those that are well managed problems and need no further attention as well as age-related conditions or functional disabilities that provoke fatalism, or those considered outside the GPs' responsibility. Statements of professional actions are closely linked to explanations of important problems and relate to physical problems rather than functional and social patient issues. CONCLUSIONS: GPs tend to prioritise treatable clinical conditions. Treatment approaches are, however, vague or missing for complex chronic illnesses and disabilities. Here, patient empowerment strategies are of value and need to be developed and implemented. The professional concepts of ageing and disability should not impede but rather foster treatment and care. To this end, GPs need to be able to delegate care to a functioning primary care team. Trial Registration German Trial Register (DRKS): 00000792.     

Implications of prognostic pessimism in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma admitted to intensive care in the UK within the COPD and asthma outcome study (CAOS): multicentre observational cohort study

Objective To determine whether clinicians'' prognoses in patients with severe acute exacerbations of obstructive lung disease admitted to intensive care match observed outcomes in terms of survival.Design Prospective cohort study.Setting 92 intensive care units and three respiratory high dependency units in the United Kingdom.Participants 832 patients aged 45 years and older with breathlessness, respiratory failure, or change in mental status because of an exacerbation of COPD, asthma, or a combination of the two.Main outcome measures Outcome predicted by clinicians. Observed survival at 180 days. Results 517 patients (62%) survived to 180 days. Clinicians'' prognoses were pessimistic, with a mean predicted survival of 49% at 180 days. For the fifth of patients with the poorest prognosis according to the clinician, the predicted survival rate was 10% and the actual rate was 40%. Information from a database covering 74% of intensive care units in the UK suggested no material difference between units that participated and those that did not. Patients recruited were similar to those not recruited in the same units.Conclusions Because decisions on whether to admit patients with COPD or asthma to intensive care for intubation depend on clinicians'' prognoses, some patients who might otherwise survive are probably being denied admission because of unwarranted prognostic pessimism.     

Surgical stabilisation of the spine compared with a programme of intensive rehabilitation for the management of patients with chronic low back pain: cost utility analysis based on a randomised controlled trial

Objective To determine whether, from a health provider and patient perspective, surgical stabilisation of the spine is cost effective when compared with an intensive programme of rehabilitation in patients with chronic low back pain.Design Economic evaluation alongside a pragmatic randomised controlled trial.Setting Secondary care.Participants 349 patients randomised to surgery (n = 176) or to an intensive rehabilitation programme (n = 173) from 15 centres across the United Kingdom between June 1996 and February 2002.Main outcome measures Costs related to back pain and incurred by the NHS and patients up to 24 months after randomisation. Return to paid employment and total hours worked. Patient utility as estimated by using the EuroQol EQ-5D questionnaire at several time points and used to calculate quality adjusted life years (QALYs). Cost effectiveness was expressed as an incremental cost per QALY.Results At two years, 38 patients randomised to rehabilitation had received rehabilitation and surgery whereas just seven surgery patients had received both treatments. The mean total cost per patient was estimated to be £7830 (SD £5202) in the surgery group and £4526 (SD £4155) in the intensive rehabilitation arm, a significant difference of £3304 (95% confidence interval £2317 to £4291). Mean QALYs over the trial period were 1.004 (SD 0.405) in the surgery group and 0.936 (SD 0.431) in the intensive rehabilitation group, giving a non-significant difference of 0.068 (–0.020 to 0.156). The incremental cost effectiveness ratio was estimated to be £48 588 per QALY gained (–£279 883 to £372 406).Conclusion Two year follow-up data show that surgical stabilisation of the spine may not be a cost effective use of scarce healthcare resources. However, sensitivity analyses show that this could change—for example, if the proportion of rehabilitation patients requiring subsequent surgery continues to increase.     

Psychological rehabilitation after myocardial infarction.

The value of psychological counselling in rehabilitating patients after myocardial infarction was assessed. A total of 143 men who had recently had a myocardial infarction were randomly allocated to either a group receiving intensive rehabilitation or a control group, their outcome being examined after six months. Patients with neurotic, introverted personalities had a poor outcome in the control group but a satisfactory outcome when rehabilitated. Neurotic personalities responded to help, and rehabilitative measures did not increase neurosis. In addition all patients with a negative attitude towards their illness and future had a poor outcome but those with a positive attitude did well. Selection by simple methods of patients who would benefit from psychological rehabilitation seems desirable.