Nestling cell-mediated immune response, body mass and hatching date as predictors of local recruitment in the pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca

Offspring body mass and hatching date have been proposed as useful correlates of post-fledging survival and recruitment probability in studies of avian populations. However, these links may be mediated by underlying physiological variables which are frequently not reported. One of these is nestling immune function, which can be measured with several field-friendly protocols like the phytohemagglutinin (PHA) inoculation assay used to estimate cell-mediated immune response (CMI). Here we show in a population of pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca subjected to a long-term study in central Spain that nestling CMI as measured with PHA is dependent on dose injected, body mass, hatching date and maternal moult state. Nestlings recruited during the first two or three years after hatching had a higher CMI but did not differ in mass or hatching date with respect to non-recruited nestlings. Nestling immunocompetence as measured with the PHA assay is a better predictor of local recruitment probability than mass or hatching date in our study population, and should be considered in future studies of determinants of offspring survival chances and fitness in avian populations.     

Influence of temperatures during the nestling period on post-fledging survival of great tit Parus major in a Mediterranean habitat

Survival during the first year is one of the most important factors determining fitness in birds. Birds have poor thermoregulatory abilities during the nestling period when the plumage is not fully developed, thus temperature during the nestling period is a serious candidate to affect post-fledging survival, although it has been usually ignored in previous studies. We analysed the relationship between temperatures and post-fledging survival in a great tit Parus major population in Sagunto (Spain) using capture-recapture data from 12 years. Hatching dates, mass at fledging and temperatures during the nestling period (maximum, minimum and mean ambient temperatures as an estimation of the mean and extreme weather conditions that chicks encountered at the nest) were used as individual covariates. Mean post-fledging survival was 0.13±0.01. Adult survival probability was 0.64±0.02. Multi-model inference suggested that post-fledging survival increased with fledging mass, and decreased as temperatures increased. Furthermore, the effect of mass on survival was less important as temperature was higher. We consider that high temperatures affect nestlings' health due to low thermoregulatory abilities of nestlings. Model selection did not support a relationship between hatching dates and survival once mass and temperatures were taken into account. The results suggest the possibility that the effect of date on post-fledging survival found in previous studies was, at least in part, a consequence of the seasonal pattern of temperature variation.     

Reduced immunocompetence of nestlings in replacement clutches of the European magpie (Pica pica)

Laying date is one of the most important determinants of reproductive success and recruitment probability in birds. Late breeders usually fledge fewer chicks than individuals with earlier breeding dates, and fledglings produced late in the season have high mortality rates. Food availability and nestling mass have been evoked as the principal mechanistic links between laying date and offspring survival. Here we suggest that another factor may actually account for the difference in survival rate between early and late offspring: immunocompetence. We predicted that nestlings produced later in the season or in replacement clutches should have lower immune responses when challenged with an antigen, than early nestlings or nestlings produced in first clutches. This hypothesis was tested in a population of magpies (Pica pica), in which we experimentally induced breeding failure in a group of nests and compared the immune response of nestlings in replacement clutches with the immune response of first clutch nestlings. Cellular immune response, as measured by wing web swelling (a correlate of T-lymphocyte production after injection of phytohaemagglutinin-P), significantly decreased with hatching date and was significantly lower in nestlings of replacement clutches. Furthermore, coefficients of intraclutch variation in immune response were higher in nestlings of replacement clutches. This experiment demonstrates an inverse relationship between immune responsiveness and breeding date, and reduced recruitment probability of late nestlings may be a direct consequence of their inability to cope with parasites.     

Siblicide, starvation and nestling growth in the laughing kookaburra

I examined the growth of surviving nestlings in broods of the cooperatively breeding laughing kookaburra Dacelo novaeguineae , which has complex patterns of brood reduction. Laughing kookaburras usually lay three eggs that hatch asynchronously. Brood reduction occurs in nearly half of all broods and always affects the youngest nestling. In most cases, the youngest nestling is killed within a few days of hatching by aggressive attacks from its older siblings. In a smaller proportion of nests, the youngest nestling dies from starvation, rather than physical attack, much later in the nestling period when nestling growth rates and adult feeding rates peak (about 20 days post-hatching). These mechanistically and temporally distinct episodes of brood reduction were associated with very different patterns of growth in the senior nestlings. Seniors that killed their youngest sibling reached higher asymptotic weights than seniors that did not commit siblicide. In contrast, if the youngest nestling was not killed by its older siblings, but later starved to death, the surviving seniors were skeletally smaller and had retarded feather development compared to seniors from other broods. These differences in nestling growth may have longer-term fitness consequences, because kookaburra fledging weight is positively associated with both juvenile survival and successful recruitment into the breeding population. Therefore, although parents of broods without mortality produce the highest number of fledglings and also the highest number of independent juveniles, if parents are unable to raise a full brood, early siblicide may represent the best brood reduction option. Early siblicide is at least associated with high quality young that have enhanced survival and recruitment prospects. In contrast, the poor growth of seniors in broods where the youngest nestling starved suggests that parents overestimated the size of the brood they could provision.     

The effect of egg mass on the growth and survival of blackbirds: a field experiment

A number of studies on birds have shown a positive correlation between egg mass and the growth (or survival) of chicks. However, a correlation based on non-experimental data does not demonstrate that egg mass affects growth, because it could be confounded by parental or territory quality. One way to see if pre-hatching attributes affect growth or survival is to swap hatchlings between nests, so that parental or territory quality do not confound correlations. I conducted such a fostering experiment on the blackbird, Turdus merula . Apart from very light eggs, that did not hatch, egg mass did not affect hatching success. Heavier eggs produced both heavier and larger nestlings. Nestlings raised by their own parents showed a positive correlation between hatchling mass and mass and size both early (day-4) and late (day-8) in the nestling period. The mass and size of fostered nestlings correlated with the mean mass of their natural parents' hatchlings, with higher coefficients early rather than late in the nestling period. By contrast, early in the nestling period there were no significant correlations of nestling mass or size and mean hatchling mass of the foster parents, but there were significant correlations late in the nestling period. Thus pre-hatching attributes of the egg do affect nestling size but environmental effects, including parental or territory quality, have an affect late in the nestling period. Direct manipulations of components of egg mass are required before one can conclude that egg mass affects growth, rather than some correlated pre-hatching attribute. There was no clear effect of egg mass on the probability that a hatching bird would survive until two weeks after fledging (shortly before nutritional independence), despite the fact that nestling mass does correlate with fledgling survival. I suggest that egg mass affects the 'size' component of mass and that juvenile survival depends on the 'condition' component of mass.     

Bacterial diversity at the cloaca relates to an immune response in magpie Pica pica and to body condition of great spotted cuckoo Clamator glandarius nestlings

Diversity of the gut bacterial community is of prime importance for optimal food digestion and, therefore, for nutritional condition of avian nestlings. Consequently, bacterial community should be considered as a predictor of the future survival and recruitment of young birds. To explore this hypothesis, we studied the cloacal microbiota, by using RISA procedure, in two avian species sharing environmental conditions during growth, the avian brood parasitic great spotted cuckoo Clamator glandarius , and their main host in Europe, the magpie Pica pica . As estimates of phenotypic condition of nestlings we studied two nutrition-dependent traits, the immune response to an innocuous antigen (phytohemagglutinin), and the residuals of body mass on tarsus and wing length of nestlings. According to the hypothesis, we found significant relationships between microbial diversity and nestling phenotypic traits related to probability of recruitment. Briefly, both magpie and cuckoo nestlings having more similar microbial diversity were also those with similar immune response and body condition index respectively. Our results show a possible association between bacterial communities and variables related to the probability of post-fledging survival and recruitment of birds, as well as possible reasons explaining magpie-cuckoo differences in the nutritionally conditioned variables better associated with their bacterial diversity.     

Variation in growth in Sandwich Tern chicks Sterna sandvicensis and the consequences for pre- and post-fledging mortality

Fitness consequences of variation in body mass growth and body condition were studied in a Sandwich Tern Sterna sandvicensis colony on Griend, Dutch Wadden Sea, during 1990–2000. Body mass increment during the linear growth phase predicted nestling survival probabilities accurately. Chicks growing less than 8 g per day had low survival probabilities until fledging, but within a range of 8–11 g per day growth only small effects on chick survival were observed. Effects of slow growth on survival became obvious after about 10 days after hatching. Slow growing chicks reached a much lower fledging mass, whereas slow growth had only small effects on structural size at fledging. Body condition of the chicks was highly variable and had strong effects on survival until fledging. However, body condition during the nestling stage did not influence post-fledging survival. Body condition at fledging had no effects on post-fledging survival and did not affect final mass or body size. It is argued that low fledging mass can be overcome soon after fledging, as parents take their fledglings closer to the foraging areas, thereby avoiding high rates of kleptoparasitism by Black-headed Gulls Larus ridibundus .     

Yearly variation in factors associated with local recruitment of Tree Swallows

Identifying factors that influence the chances of fledglings becoming local recruits can inform us about the ecology of population dynamics and factors influencing parental fitness. We studied Tree Swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) nesting in boxes in western Michigan from 1994 to 2005 and found that 145 of 2405 (6.0%) nestlings that fledged from 840 nests became local recruits. Most local recruits returned to breed at the study site the year after they fledged. The sex ratio of local recruits (76 males and 69 females) did not differ from 1:1. Analysis of data from all years combined revealed that the likelihood of fledglings becoming local recruits was not significantly influenced by the year they fledged, clutch initiation date, clutch size, brood size, age class and physical characteristics of female parents, or the physical characteristics of putative male parents. However, analysis of data from each year revealed that some variables had a significant effect on the likelihood of fledglings becoming local recruits in some years, including female age class in two years, female parent right tail fork length in one year, female parent right wing length in one year, clutch initiation date in two years, clutch size in two years, and brood size in one year. The proportion of fledglings produced each year that became local recruits was not correlated with either mean air temperature or total rainfall during June and July, the immediate post-fledgling period. Taken together, these analyses suggest that chance or yearly variation in some other factor(s) with the potential to affect post-fledging survival that we did not measure (e.g., predation post-fledging or climatic conditions during migration or in migratory stopover sites and wintering areas) had an important effect on local recruitment of fledgling Tree Swallows in our study. We did find that local recruits were more likely to be from nests where egg-laying began earlier rather than later in the season, with 137 of 145 (94%) of local recruits coming from clutches initiated between 5 and 30 May. Because swallows that fledged earlier in the season had more time to prepare for migration than those that fledged later, we hypothesize that the “relative age effect” had an important effect on local recruitment of Tree Swallows at our study site.     

Experimental food supplementation affects the physical development,behaviour and survival of Little Owl Athene noctua nestlings

In birds, energy supply during growth is a major predictor of the fledglings' physical condition and survival prospects. Differential quantity and quality of fledglings produced under varying nestling food supplies are likely to affect the number of offspring that recruit into the breeding population. However, the underlying mechanisms and associated consequences are still poorly known. Using a partial cross‐fostering and food supplementation experiment, we estimated the effect of variation in food supply during growth on nestling survival and fledgling phenotypic traits of Little Owls Athene noctua. Survival to fledging was much higher in food‐supplemented nestlings (98.6%) than in control nestlings (82.4%). Furthermore, supplemented nestlings were on average 8.9 g heavier and were more likely to develop subcutaneous fat deposits (99.4 vs. 73.7% of treatment and control nestlings, respectively). Supplemented nestlings also had on average longer wings than control nestlings, but tarsi and culmen did not differ significantly. Furthermore, experimentally supplemented fledglings struggled more when handled and emerged sooner from tonic immobility than control fledglings. The irises of supplemented fledglings were less intensely coloured. The experimentally induced changes in nestling development probably affect individual performance beyond fledging. Nestlings from orchard‐dominated habitats were larger than those from habitats dominated by arable land. As nestling food supply is largely determined by natural food availability, we conclude that habitat quality affects Little Owl productivity and offspring quality, and ultimately, population dynamics.     

Nestling telomere shortening,but not telomere length,reflects developmental stress and predicts survival in wild birds

Developmental stressors often have long-term fitness consequences, but linking offspring traits to fitness prospects has remained a challenge. Telomere length predicts mortality in adult birds, and may provide a link between developmental conditions and fitness prospects. Here, we examine the effects of manipulated brood size on growth, telomere dynamics and post-fledging survival in free-living jackdaws. Nestlings in enlarged broods achieved lower mass and lost 21% more telomere repeats relative to nestlings in reduced broods, showing that developmental stress accelerates telomere shortening. Adult telomere length was positively correlated with their telomere length as nestling (r = 0.83). Thus, an advantage of long telomeres in nestlings is carried through to adulthood. Nestling telomere shortening predicted post-fledging survival and recruitment independent of manipulation and fledgling mass. This effect was strong, with a threefold difference in recruitment probability over the telomere shortening range. By contrast, absolute telomere length was neither affected by brood size manipulation nor related to survival. We conclude that telomere loss, but not absolute telomere length, links developmental conditions to subsequent survival and suggest that telomere shortening may provide a key to unravelling the physiological causes of developmental effects on fitness.     

Post-fledging survival of individual great tits: the effect of hatching date and fledging mass

Pre-breeeding survival is one of the major sources of individual variation in lifetime reproductive success. However, very little is known about the reasons for differences in survival among individuals during this important phase of the life cycle. Some studies, using local return rates as indices of survival, have shown a relationship between post-fledging survival and fledging date and mass in birds, most of them suggesting directional selection towards heavy masses and early fledging dates. Recent development of capture-recapture models allows the separate estimate of survival and recapture probabilities, as well as the inclusion of individual covariates into the modelling process. We used here these models to explore the relative effects of fledging date and fledging mass on local recruitment of individual great tit Parus major fledglings. Individual capture-recapture histories of 2051 fledglings (cohorts 1992–1999), 184 of which were recaptured as breeding birds during 1993–2000, were used in the analyses. Hatching date, offspring mass at day 15, their squared terms, and interactions between mass and date, were included as covariates into the modelling process. Models with age (fledglings and adults) and time (year) dependence were used. The probability of local recruitment increased with fledging mass in each of the years studied. Fledging date also affected recruitment but, against what is commonly thought, fledgling early is not the best option every year. Either early, intermediate or late fledglings were favoured in different years. This between-year variation in the optimum fledging date offers an alternative explanation to the lack of evolution towards earlier breeding dates, in spite of the advantages of early breeding some years.     

Hatching asynchrony and brood reduction in Tengmalm's owl <Emphasis Type="Italic">Aegolius funereus</Emphasis>: the role of temporal and spatial variation in food abundance

Hatching asynchrony is the consequence of birds initiating incubation before clutch completion. It has been suggested that variation in hatching asynchrony in owls is extensive, and therefore they should be excellent objects to study the effects of spatio-temporal variation in food abundance on this phenomenon. We examined how abundance and predictability of food affected hatching asynchrony in Tengmalm's owl Aegolius funereus (Linnaeus), which mainly feeds on voles which fluctuate in 3- to 4-year cycles in northern Europe. Hatching span averaged 6-7 days (range 0-13 days) and increased with clutch size. Food supply did not directly influence levels of hatching asynchrony but it influenced indirectly via marked among-year changes in clutch size. During the decrease phase of the vole cycle the proportion of hatchlings producing fledglings decreased with asynchrony, suggesting that chick mortality was most common among asynchronous broods when food became scarce. This finding is consistent with Lack's brood reduction hypothesis, i.e. that if food becomes scarce during the nestling period the youngest nestlings would die first without endangering the survival of the whole brood.     

Determinants of parental care and offspring survival during the post-fledging period: males care more in a species with partially reversed sex roles

Sexual conflict is magnified during the post-fledging period of birds when the sexes face different trade-offs between continuing parental care or investing in self maintenance or other mating opportunities. Species with reversed sex roles provide a unique opportunity to study the relationship between mating systems and investment in parental care. Here, we provide the first detailed study of the length of care by males versus females (n = 24 pairs) during the post-fledging period, assessing factors that may promote care within and between the sexes. In the northern flicker Colaptes auratus, a species with partly reversed sex roles, males cared longer than females (average 16 versus 12 days, respectively). Overall, 36 % of females but no males deserted the brood prior to fledgling independence. Parents that provisioned nestlings at a high rate also spent more days feeding fledglings. Among males, age and nestling feeding rates were positively associated with the length of care. Among females, a low level of feather corticosterone (CORT_f) was associated with a longer length of care. About 45 % of fledglings died within the first week, but fledglings with intermediate body mass had the highest survival suggesting stabilizing selection on mass. Fledgling survival was also higher in individuals with larger broods and lower levels of CORT_f. We demonstrate that because females can be polyandrous they often desert the brood before males, and that the sexes respond to different cues relating to their energy balance when deciding the length of care given to their offspring.     

Post-fledging interactions between the Common Cuckoo Cuculus canorus and its cavity-nesting Common Redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus host

Brood parasite–host interactions during the incubation and nestling stages have been well studied, but the post-fledging period remains virtually unknown. Using radiotracking, we provide the first detailed data on post-fledging interactions between the Common Cuckoo Cuculus canorus and its only regular cavity-nesting host, the Common Redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus. Cuckoos raised alone (‘solitary’) fledged at higher mass, with higher wing and tarsus length and started to fly at a younger age than Cuckoos raised alongside young Redstarts (‘mixed’). However, a further 23 fledging and post-fledging parameters measured at five pre-determined times (fledging, first-flight, predation, starvation, independence) did not differ between solitary and mixed Cuckoos. In addition, none of the parameters measured during the post-fledging period (growth, dispersal distances, number of flights) differed between solitary and mixed Cuckoos. Redstart fledglings from non-parasitized broods (‘solitary’) showed generally similar fledging and post-fledging parameters to fledglings reared alongside a Cuckoo (‘mixed’). Surprisingly, there were no significant differences in post-fledging predation rate, starvation or overall survival rates between mixed and solitary Cuckoos or mixed and solitary Redstarts. Thus, during the post-fledging period, mixed Cuckoo fledglings successfully compensated for the poorer performance experienced during the nestling stage whereas mixed and solitary Redstarts did not differ in any measured parameters. This suggests that the regular occurrence of mixed broods in this host–parasite system – which is unique among the many Cuckoo hosts – is evolutionarily stable for both hosts and parasites.     

Mercury in bald eagle nestlings from South Carolina,USA

Bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) may be at risk from contaminants in their diet and young birds may be particularly sensitive to contaminant exposure. To evaluate potential risks from dietary mercury exposure to eagle nestlings in South Carolina (USA), we surveyed mercury concentrations in 34 nestlings over two breeding seasons (1998 and 1999). Samples were also obtained from several post-fledging eagles in the region. Nestling feather mercury ranged from 0.61-6.67 micrograms Hg/g dry weight, nestling down mercury from 0.50-5.05 micrograms Hg/g dry weight, and nestling blood mercury from 0.02-0.25 microgram Hg/g wet weight. We did not detect significant differences in tissue mercury between nestlings from coastal and inland regions in contrast to some other studies of piscivorous birds. Mercury concentrations were much higher in the post fledging birds we sampled. Our data show that nestling eagles in South Carolina are accumulating mercury, and that concentrations in older birds may exceed regulatory guidelines.     

Sex-biased nestling mortality in the Montagu's harrier Circus pygargus

I evaluate causes and patterns of nestling mortality in a sexually dimorphic species, the Montagu's harrier Circus pygargus , and their relationship with sex and condition. Starvation was apparently the main reason for nestling death. Condition of birds that died was lower than those that survived. Both probability of nestling death and the proportion of nestlings that died within a brood increased with the number of hatched nestlings in a brood, and with increasing hatching date. For the nestlings that died after being sexed, when controlling for brood effects, probability of death was significantly related to nestling sex, with smaller males having a higher probability of dying. The probability of nestling death if hatched late in the season was relatively greater for males than for females. There was also a significant interaction between sex and hatching date on nestling condition: the decline in condition if hatched late in the season was steeper for males than for females. Males did not have a higher probability of death when having more sisters: neither the probability of brood reduction nor the proportion of nestlings that died were significantly related to within-brood sex ratio. Results suggest that mortality may partly result from sibling competition: females, being the larger sex, might be better able to compete for food within a brood than their male siblings. Additionally, smaller males may be less able to recover from periods of declining body weight.     

Breeding site fidelity and natal philopatry in the Redshank Tringa totanus

This paper presents the results of a study carried out on breeding Redshank in the Ribble Marshes, Lancashire, England.
Redshank tend to return to the same breeding area year after year. There was no detectable sex bias in return rates. Experienced birds were more site faithful than inexperienced birds, with previously successful birds exhibiting the highest degree of breeding site fidelity. Older, more experienced birds were more successful at hatching eggs than inexperienced birds.
Breeding dispersal was the same both within and between years. Faithful pairs and males nesting with a new mate dispersed significantly shorter distances than females nesting with a new partner. Dispersal distances in female Redshank were affected by breeding success: unsuccessful females, nesting with a new mate, dispersed significantly farther than successful females. A pair's breeding success influenced the following year's mate fidelity. However, other factors such as overwintering survival and date of return may also have influenced mate fidelity.
Redshank were highly faithful to their natal area; a high proportion of birds that survived post-fledging mortality returned to breed in their area of birth. No sex bias in natal dispersal was detected. Approximately 50% of Redshank breed in their first year of life.     

No effect of habitat fragmentation on post-fledging, first-year and adult survival in the middle spotted woodpecker

Despite its relevance for the dynamics of populations, the ecological mechanisms underlying juvenile and adult survival are poorly known in most bird species. This study focuses on the effect of habitat fragmentation on early post-fledging, first-year and adult survival of the middle spotted woodpecker Dendrocopus medius by combining data of radio-tagged and ringed birds. Among juveniles, most deaths occurred during the first three weeks after fledging (survival rate: 0.359±0.077) and were mainly caused by predation. After independence, birds faced another critical period during their first autumn-winter that lowered first-year survival further (0.255±0.044), whereas adult mortality was considerably lower (annual survival rate: 0.786±0.074). We did not find any significant effect of habitat fragmentation (measured as patch size and connectivity) on juvenile or adult survival. Sex ratio at fledging did not differ significantly from parity (proportion of females: 0.513) and was not correlated to patch size. Regardless of age, survival did not differ between the sexes, suggesting that a female-biased mortality was not the mechanism behind the presence of unpaired territorial males in this population. Lighter nestlings underwent significantly higher post-fledging mortality, indicating that conditions in the nest may substantially affect survival later in life.     

Effects of experimental food supplementation on movements of juvenile northern goshawks (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Accipiter gentilis atricapillus</Emphasis>)

Food availability is thought to strongly influence the leaving phase of natal dispersal in animals with condition-dependent dispersal. We conducted a food supplementation experiment to determine the influence of extra food on the onset of dispersal and early dispersal movement patterns of 42 radio-tagged northern goshawks (Accipiter gentilis atricapillus) from 28 broods in north-central New Mexico during 1992 and 1993. We randomly assigned half of the broods each year as treatments and the other half as controls. Treatment broods were given supplemental food from hatching (late April) until mid-October. Control broods received the same visitation rate but no food. Birds were located approximately every 2 days from fledging until mid-October in 1992 and 1993. Timing of fledging and independence were not affected by the treatment. However, extra food significantly influenced post-fledging movements of juvenile goshawks. During the late fledgling-dependency period (>65 days of age until independence) control birds were located in the natal area (<2 km from nest tree) more frequently than supplemented birds. This pattern reversed after independence (approximately 82 days of age) when supplemented birds were located more frequently in the natal area than controls. After independence the control birds were never located in the natal area and by the end of September in both years the controls had all left the study area (study area boundaries were approximately 25 km from nest tree). Supplemented birds were never located outside of the study area for the duration of the experiment. We conclude that the control birds dispersed out of the study area and the supplemented birds remained. Since the experimentally fed juveniles remained near a known food source and the controls did not, our study demonstrates that food availability influences at least the first 4 months of post-fledging movement patterns in this population. These results also suggest individuals base dispersal decisions on knowledge of their environment at a local scale, which can influence juvenile recruitment.     

Decline of a montane Mediterranean pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca population in relation to climate

Certain populations of long‐distance migratory birds are suffering declines, which may be attributed to effects of climate change. In this article, we have analysed a long‐term (1991–2015) data set on a pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca population breeding in nest‐boxes in a Mediterranean montane oak forest, exploring the trends in population size due to changes in nestling recruitment, female survival and female immigration. We have related these changes in population parameters to local climate, winter NAO index and to breeding density. During the last 25 yr the population has declined by half, mainly in association with a decrease in nestling mass and structural size which had repercussions on the probability of nestling recruitment to the population. Lower local nestling recruitment in certain years was linked to lower female immigration rate in the same years. On the other hand, the local survival of females remained stable throughout the study period. Laying date and breeding success were negatively affected by local temperatures while breeding, recruitment rate likewise by minimum temperature prior to breeding in April. As minimum April temperatures have increased across the study period, this may have affected recruitment and immigration rates negatively. On the other hand, tarsus length and body mass of nestlings were positively associated with winter NAO index, pointing to more global climatic links. Moreover, there was also a negative temporal trend in body mass of adults, implying increasingly difficult conditions for breeding. Declining recruit production in the study area could be attributed to a mismatch between the timing of arrival and breeding in the population, and the peak of food availability in this area.