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1.
Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date, the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios, relative changes in CSR increase with increased projected temperature rise. Between now and 2100, global average CSR is projected to remain similar to today (+0.3%) under the optimistic B1/+1.8°C scenario, but to decrease significantly (−9.4%) under the ‘business as usual’ A1FI/+4.0°C scenario. Across all modelled scenarios, the magnitude and direction of CSR change are geographically highly non-uniform. While in most temperate and arctic regions, a CSR increase is expected, the projections indicate a strong decline in most tropical and subtropical regions. Countries least responsible for past and present greenhouse gas emissions are likely to incur disproportionately large future losses in CSR, whereas industrialized countries have projected moderate increases. Independent of direction, we infer that all changes in regional CSR will probably induce on-site species turnover and thereby be a threat to native floras.  相似文献   

2.
Short-term changes in plant species number, frequency and composition were studied along an altitudinal gradient crossing four summits from the treeline ecotone to the subnival zone in the South Alps (Dolomites, Italy). Large-scale (summit areas) and small-scale patterns (16 plots of 1 m2/summit) were monitored. After 5 years, a re-visitation of the summit areas revealed a considerable increase of species richness at the upper alpine and subnival zone (10% and 9%, respectively) and relatively modest increases at the lower alpine zone and the treeline ecotone (3% and 1%, respectively). At the small scale, the results were partly different, with species richness decreasing at the lower summits and increasing at the higher summits. The changes can most likely be attributed to climate warming effects and to competitive interactions. The main newcomers at the lower three summits were species from the treeline and the lower altitudinal zones. Only at the highest summit, the newcomers came from the alpine species pool. At the treeline ecotone, the abundance of Pinus cembra, of dwarf shrubs and clonal graminoid species increased. Here, displacements of alpine species may be predicted for the near future. At the higher summits, expansions of the established alpine species and further invasions of species from lower altitudes are forecasted.  相似文献   

3.
Aim To investigate the potential impacts of climate change on stream fish assemblages in terms of species and biological trait diversity, composition and similarity. Location One‐thousand one‐hundred and ten stream sections in France. Methods We predicted the future potential distribution of 35 common stream fish species facing changes in temperature and precipitation regime. Seven different species distribution models were applied and a consensus forecast was produced to limit uncertainty between single‐models. The potential impacts of climate change on fish assemblages were assessed using both species and biological trait approaches. We then addressed the spatial distribution of potential impacts along the upstream–downstream gradient. Results Overall, climate change was predicted to result in an increase in species and trait diversity. Species and trait composition of the fish assemblages were also projected to be highly modified. Changes in assemblages’ diversity and composition differed strongly along the upstream–downstream gradient, with upstream and midstream assemblages more modified than downstream assemblages. We also predicted a global increase in species and trait similarity between pairwise assemblages indicating a future species and trait homogenization of fish assemblages. Nevertheless, we found that upstream assemblages would differentiate, whereas midstream and downstream assemblages would homogenize. Our results suggested that colonization could be the main driver of the predicted homogenization, while local extinctions could result in assemblage differentiation. Main conclusions This study demonstrated that climate change could lead to contrasted impacts on fish assemblage structure and diversity depending on the position along the upstream–downstream gradient. These results could have important implications in terms of ecosystem monitoring as they could be useful in establishing areas that would need conservation prioritization.  相似文献   

4.
Abstract.  1. Metapopulation dynamics should be more important at the borders of species distributions due to two main factors: (1) populations are less abundant and fluctuate more at the borders than in the centre of their distributions, and (2) resources in the range margins of species distributions are often more scarce and fragmented.
2. Most metapopulation studies have been performed in a fraction of the entire distribution of species. The main goal here is to study the population dynamics of a narrowly distributed species including both the borders and the centre of the distribution, and to test the predictions described above.
3. The density and extinction events in a patchily distributed species, Timarcha lugens , was quantified for 5 years along an altitudinal gradient including the upper and lower limits of the species distribution. The dispersal ability of Timarcha was also studied using a mark–release–recapture study.
4. Extinction events and empty patches were only found at the borders of Timarcha distribution. The fluctuation in beetle density was greater in patches suffering extinction events. Resource abundance was negatively related to beetle density and positively related to extinction events. In addition, the dispersal rate among patches was very low and beetles moved distances of no further than 25 m.
5. Population density governs the extinction events in this system, and its fluctuation was more evident near the border of the distribution. Both factors together with the relative population stability in patches at medium and high altitudes, and the low dispersal rate of the individuals support the idea of a source–sink metapopulation structure in T. lugens .  相似文献   

5.
Aims The aims were (1) to assess the species richness and structure of phytophagous Hemiptera communities along a latitudinal gradient, (2) to identify the importance of rare species in structuring these patterns, and (3) to hypothesize about how phytophagous Hemiptera communities may respond to future climate change. Location East coast of Australia. Methods Four latitudes within the 1150 km coastal distribution of Acacia falcata were selected. The insect assemblage on the host plant Acacia falcata was sampled seasonally over two years. Congeneric plant species were also sampled at the sites. Results Ninety‐eight species of phytophagous Hemiptera were collected from A. falcata. Total species richness was significantly lower at the most temperate latitude compared to the three more tropical latitudes. We classified species into four climate change response groups depending on their latitudinal range and apparent host specificity. Pairwise comparisons between groups showed that the cosmopolitan, generalist feeders and specialists had a similar community structure to each other, but the climate generalists had a significantly different structure. Fifty‐seven species were identified as rare. Most of these rare species were phloem hoppers and their removal from the dataset led to changes in the proportional representation of all guilds in two groups: the specialist and generalist feeders. Main conclusions We found no directional increase in phytophagous Hemiptera species richness. This indicates that, at least in the short term, species richness patterns of these communities may be similar to that found today. As the climate continues to change, however, we might expect some increases in species richness at the more temperate latitudes as species migrate in response to shifting climate zones. In the longer term, more substantial changes in community composition will be expected because the rare species, which comprise a large fraction of these communities, will be vulnerable to both direct climatic changes, and indirect effects via changes to their host's distribution.  相似文献   

6.
Climate change will alter natural selection on native plant populations. Little information is available to predict how selection will change in the future and how populations will respond. Insight can be obtained by comparing selection regimes in current environments to selection regimes in environments similar to those predicted for the future. To mimic predicted temporal change in climate, three natural populations of the annual legume Chamaecrista fasciculata were sampled from a climate gradient in the Great Plains and progeny of formal crosses were reciprocally planted back into common gardens across this climate gradient. In each garden, native populations produced significantly more seed than the other populations, providing strong evidence of local adaptation. Phenotypic selection analysis conducted by site showed that plants with slower reproductive development, more leaves, and thicker leaves were favored in the most southern garden. Evidence of clinal variation in selection regimes was also found; selection coefficients were ordered according to the latitude of the common gardens. The adaptive value of native traits was indicated by selection toward the mean of local populations. Repeated clinal patterns in linear and nonlinear selection coefficients among populations and within and between sites were found. To the extent that temporal change in climate into the future will parallel the differences in selection across this spatial gradient, this study suggests that selection regimes will be displaced northward and different trait values will be favored in natural populations.  相似文献   

7.
Alpine ecosystems, characterized by cold climates and short growing seasons, are thought to be most vulnerable to climate change. Warmer temperatures and earlier snowmelt extend the growing season length and increase drought stress for alpine plants, resulting in changes to their distribution. Anemone narcissiflora ssp. sachalinensis is a perennial herb that grows in the alpine snow-meadows of northern Japan. In the last few decades, its distribution has shifted toward later snowmelt habitat in the Taisetsu Mountains of Hokkaido. We recorded demographic data for this species at early, middle and late snowmelt habitats over four years (2009–2012), and constructed transition matrix models to evaluate how demographic parameters and population growth rate vary between local habitats along a snowmelt gradient. The proportion of reproductive plants was low and seed production was limited in the early snowmelt habitat, with drier soil conditions, in comparison to the middle and late snowmelt habitats, with moist soil conditions. Evidence of the transition from small plants to those in the reproductive stage was limited in the early snowmelt habitat, suggesting that growth was inhibited; the local population in this habitat was estimated to be sustained by seed migration from later snowmelt habitats. These results indicate that advancing snowmelt under climate change may decrease the reproductive activity and population growth rate of snow-meadow plants if seed migration from later snowmelt populations is limited, resulting in the extinction of local populations.  相似文献   

8.
We link spatially explicit climate change predictions to a dynamic metapopulation model. Predictions of species'' responses to climate change, incorporating metapopulation dynamics and elements of dispersal, allow us to explore the range margin dynamics for two lagomorphs of conservation concern. Although the lagomorphs have very different distribution patterns, shifts at the edge of the range were more pronounced than shifts in the overall metapopulation. For Romerolagus diazi (volcano rabbit), the lower elevation range limit shifted upslope by approximately 700 m. This reduced the area occupied by the metapopulation, as the mountain peak currently lacks suitable vegetation. For Lepus timidus (European mountain hare), we modelled the British metapopulation. Increasing the dispersive estimate caused the metapopulation to shift faster on the northern range margin (leading edge). By contrast, it caused the metapopulation to respond to climate change slower, rather than faster, on the southern range margin (trailing edge). The differential responses of the leading and trailing range margins and the relative sensitivity of range limits to climate change compared with that of the metapopulation centroid have important implications for where conservation monitoring should be targeted. Our study demonstrates the importance and possibility of moving from simple bioclimatic envelope models to second-generation models that incorporate both dynamic climate change and metapopulation dynamics.  相似文献   

9.
Ear tags containing 40% organophosphate insecticides (diazinon or diazinon plus chlorpyrifos-ethyl) were applied to control Haematobia irritans (L.) (Diptera: Muscidae) in treated (TG01 and TG02) and untreated (UG01 and UG02) groups of Holstein heifers born in 2001 and 2002, respectively. Control and treated groups were assessed for the abundance of Stomoxys calcitrans (L.) (Diptera: Muscidae) from August 2001 to April 2002 and again from August 2002 to April 2003. The treatment had a high efficacy for control of horn flies (maximum median number per heifer of TG01 and TG02 = 5) but a low effect on the abundance of stable flies. The total numbers of S. calcitrans were 1251 (42.9% of the total) and 1668 (57.1%) for TG01 and UG01, and 1423 (48.8%) and 1494 (51.2%) in TG02 and UG02, respectively. No significant difference in stable fly burden was found in 55 of the 76 weeks evaluated. A unimodal peak of abundance in the spring was found during the first fly season, and a bimodal abundance, with peaks in the spring and autumn, during the second season. No strong associations between horn fly and stable fly burdens was found in individuals of the CG01 (correlation coefficient = 0.13, P > 0.05) or CG02 (correlation coefficient = 0.538, P < 0.05, determination coefficient = 0.289).  相似文献   

10.
Climate change will test the evolutionary potential of populations. Information regarding the genetic architecture within and among populations is essential for prediction of evolutionary outcomes. However, little is known about the distribution of genetic variation for relevant traits in natural populations or alteration of genetic architecture in a changing environment. In this study, pedigreed families from three populations of the annual prairie legume Chamaecrista fasciculata were reciprocally transplanted in three environments across a broad latitudinal range in the Great Plains. The underlying premise of this work is that northern populations will in the future experience climates similar to current-day climates further south. Estimates of narrow-sense heritability ranged from 0.053 to 0.481, suggesting the potential for evolutionary change is possible for most traits. In general, the northern population harbored less genetic variation and had lower heritability for traits than the southern population. This population also experienced large reductions in fitness, as measured by estimated lifetime fecundity, when raised in either the intermediate or the southern climate, whereas the difference between the intermediate and southern population was less extreme. For fecundity, the pattern of cross-environment additive genetic correlations was antagonistic to evolutionary change in four of six cases when native and nonnative sites were compared. Six additional antagonistic positive correlations were found for the rate of phenological development and leaf thickness. Overall, the data suggest that if climate changes as predicted, the northern population will face a severe evolutionary challenge in the future because of low heritabilities, cross-environment genetic correlations antagonistic to selection, and demographic instability due to lower seed production in a hotter and drier climate.  相似文献   

11.
The potential effects of global climate changeon marine protected areas do not appear to havebeen addressed in the literature. This paperexamines the literature on protected areas,conservation biology, marine ecology,oceanography, and climate change, and reviewssome of the relevant differences between marineand terrestrial environments. Frameworks andclassifications systems used in protected areadesign are discussed. Finally, a frameworkthat summarizes some of the importantoceanographic processes and their links to thefood chain are reviewed. Species abundance anddistribution are expected to change as a resultof global climate change, potentiallycompromising the efficacy of marine protectedareas as biodiversity conservation tools. Thisreview suggests the need for: furtherinterdisciplinary research and the use oflinked models; an increase in marine protectedareas for biodiversity conservation and asresearch sites for teasing apart fishingeffects from climate effects; a temporallyresponsive approach to siting new marineprotected areas, shifting their locations ifnecessary; and large-scale ecosystem/integratedmanagement approaches to address the competinguses of the oceans and boundary-less threatssuch as global climate change and pollution.  相似文献   

12.
General circulation models predict increases in temperature and precipitation in the Arctic as the result of increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Arctic ecosystems are strongly constrained by temperature, and may be expected to be markedly influenced by climate change. Perturbation experiments have been used to predict how Arctic ecosystems will respond to global climatic change, but these have often simulated individual perturbations (e.g. temperature alone) and have largely been confined to the short Arctic summer. The importance of interactions between global change variables (e.g. CO2, temperature, precipitation) has rarely been examined, and much experimentation has been short-term. Similarly, very little experimentation has occurred in the winter when General circulation models predict the largest changes in climate will take place. Recent studies have clearly demonstrated that Arctic ecosystems are not dormant during the winter and thus much greater emphasis on experimentation during this period is essential to improve our understanding of how these ecosystems will respond to global change. This, combined with more long-term experimentation, direct observation of natural vegetation change (e.g. at the tundra/taiga boundary) and improvements in model predictions is necessary if we are to understand the future nature and extent of Arctic ecosystems in a changing climate.  相似文献   

13.
Experimental studies of the impact of climatic change are hampered by their inability to consider multiple climate change scenarios and indeed often consider no more than simple climate sensitivity such as a uniform increase in temperature. Modelling efforts offer the ability to consider a much wider range of realistic climate projections and are therefore useful, in particular, for estimating the sensitivity of impact predictions to differences in geographical location, and choice of climate change scenario and climate model projections. In this study, we used well‐established degree‐day models to predict the voltinism of 13 agronomically important pests in California, USA. We ran these models using the projections from three Atmosphere–Ocean Coupled Global Circulation Models (AOCGCMs or GCMs), in conjunction with the SRES scenarios. We ran these for two locations representing northern and southern California. We did this for both the 2050s and 2090s. We used anova to partition the variation in the resulting voltinism among time period, climate change scenario, GCM and geographical location. For these 13 pest species, the choice of climate model explained an average of 42% of the total variation in voltinism, far more than did geographical location (33%), time period (17%) or scenario (1%). The remaining 7% of the variation was explained by various interactions, of which the location by GCM interaction was the strongest (5%). Regardless of these sources of uncertainty, a robust conclusion from our work is that all 13 pest species are likely to experience increases in the number of generations that they complete each year. Such increased voltinism is likely to have significant consequences for crop protection and production.  相似文献   

14.
Aim  Many species are currently expanding their ranges in response to climate change, but the mechanisms underlying these range expansions are in many cases poorly understood. In this paper we explore potential climatic factors governing the recent establishment of new palm populations far to the north of any other viable palm population in the world.
Location  Southern Switzerland, Europe, Asia and the world.
Methods  We identified ecological threshold values for the target species, Trachycarpus fortunei , based on gridded climate data, altitude and distributional records from the native range and applied them to the introduced range using local field monitoring and measured meteorological data as well as a bioclimatic model.
Results  We identified a strong relationship between minimum winter temperatures, influenced by growing season length and the distribution of the palm in its native range. Recent climate change strongly coincides with the palm's recent spread into southern Switzerland, which is in concert with the expansion of the global range of palms across various continents.
Main conclusions  Our results strongly suggest that the expansion of palms into (semi-)natural forests is driven by changes in winter temperature and growing season length and not by delayed population expansion. This implies that this rapid expansion is likely to continue in the future under a warming climate. Palms in general, and T. fortunei in particular, are significant bioindicators across continents for present-day climate change and reflect a global signal towards warmer conditions.  相似文献   

15.
Relatively little research has been conducted on how climate change may affect the structure and function of arid to semiarid ecosystems of the American Southwest. Along the slopes of the San Francisco Peaks of Arizona, USA, I transferred intact soil cores from a spruce‐fir to a ponderosa pine forest 730 m lower in elevation to assess the potential impacts of climate change on soil N cycling and trace gas fluxes. The low‐elevation site has a mean annual soil temperature about 2.5°C higher than the high‐elevation site. Net rates of N transformations and trace gas fluxes were measured in high‐elevation soil cores incubated in situ and soil cores transferred to the low‐elevation site. Over a 13‐month period, volumetric soil water content was similar in transferred soil cores relative to soil cores incubated in situ. Net N mineralization and nitrification increased over 80% in transferred soil cores compared with in situ soil cores. Soil transfer significantly increased net CO2 efflux (120%) and net CH4 consumption (90%) relative to fluxes of these gases from soil cores incubated in situ. Soil net N2O fluxes were relatively low and were not generally altered by soil transfer. Although the soil microbial biomass as a whole decreased in transferred soil cores compared with in situ soil cores after the incubation period, active bacterial biomass increased. Transferring soil cores from the low‐elevation to the high‐elevation site (i.e. simulated global cooling) commonly, but not consistently, resulted in the opposite effects on soil pools and processes. In general, soil containment (root trenching) did not significantly affect soil measurements. My results suggest that small increases in mean annual temperature can have large impacts on soil N cycling, soil–atmosphere trace gas exchanges, and soil microbial communities even in ecosystems where water availability is a major limiting resource.  相似文献   

16.
Climate change is causing warmer and more variable temperatures as well as physical flux in natural populations, which will affect the ecology and evolution of infectious disease epidemics. Using replicate seminatural populations of a coevolving freshwater invertebrate‐parasite system (host: Daphnia magna, parasite: Pasteuria ramosa), we quantified the effects of ambient temperature and population mixing (physical flux within populations) on epidemic size and population health. Each population was seeded with an identical suite of host genotypes and dose of parasite transmission spores. Biologically reasonable increases in environmental temperature caused larger epidemics, and population mixing reduced overall epidemic size. Mixing also had a detrimental effect on host populations independent of disease. Epidemics drove parasite‐mediated selection, leading to a loss of host genetic diversity, and mixed populations experienced greater evolution due to genetic drift over the season. These findings further our understanding of how diversity loss will reduce the host populations’ capacity to respond to changes in selection, therefore stymying adaptation to further environmental change.  相似文献   

17.
Understanding soil carbon fractions and their responses to the global warming is important for improving soil carbon management of natural altitudinal forest ecosystem. In this study, the contents of soil total organic carbon (SOC), soil labile organic carbon (LOC), and microbial biomass carbon (MBC) in soil upper layers (0–20 cm) were measured along a natural altitudinal transect in the north slope of Changbai Mountain. The results showed that under natural conditions the contents of SOC and LOC were largest in Betula ermanii forest (altitude 1996 m), moderate in spruce-fir forest (altitude 1350 m), and smallest in Korean pine mixed broad-leaf tree forest (altitude 740 m). MBC contents in different forest ecosystems decreased in the order of Betula ermanii forest, Korean pine mixed broad-leaf tree forest, and dark coniferous forest. In addition, the responses of SOC, LOC, and MBC to soil warming were conducted by relocating intact soil cores from high- to low-elevation forests for one year. As expected, the soil core relocation caused significant increase in soil temperature but made no significant effect on soil moisture. After one year incubation, soil relocation significantly decreased SOC contents, whereas the contents of LOC, MBC, and the ratios of LOC to SOC and MBC to SOC increased.  相似文献   

18.
AimsTo further understand the sensitivity of tree growth to climate change and its variation with altitude, particularly the growth-climate relationship near the timberline, the radial growth of Larix olgensis in an oldgrowth forest along an altitudinal gradient on the eastern slope of Changbai Mountain was investigated. MethodsThe relationships between climate factors and tree-ring index were determined using bootstrapped response functions analysis with the software DENDROCLIM2002. Redundancy analysis, a multivariate “direct” gradient analysis, and its ordination axes were constrained to represent linear combinations with meteorological elements. The analysis was used to clarify the relationship between tree-ring width indexes at different elevations and climate factors during the period 1959-2009.Important findings indicated: (1) Tree ring chronologies from high altitudes were more superior than other samples in terms of growth-climate relationship, revealing that trees at high altitudes are more sensitive to climate variation than at low sites, (2) Tree growth was mainly affected by temperatures of from before and through growing season in previous year, especially in June and August. In comparison, tree growth in the low elevation was regulated by the combination of precipitation of August and Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) of September in current year, (3) Trees growing below timberline appeared to be more sensitive to climate warming; small extents of habitat heterogeneity or disturbance events beyond timberline may have masked the response, hence the optimal sites for examining growth trends as a function of climate variation are considered to be just below timberline, and (4) Redundancy analysis between the three chronologies and climate factors showed the same results as that of the correlation analysis and response function analysis, and this is in support of previous conclusion that redundancy analysis is also effective in quantifying the relationship between tree-ring indexes and climate factors.  相似文献   

19.
为了解高山林线附近树木生长对气候变化的敏感性, 选取长白山东坡火山喷发后形成的过渡性植物群落长白落叶松(又称黄花落叶松) (Larix olgensis)林为研究对象, 并建立不同海拔高度长白落叶松的3个年轮宽度年表, 研究不同生境长白落叶松径向生长对气候变化的响应, 并利用冗余分析对不同海拔的年轮指数与气候因子的关系做进一步分析。主要结果如下: (1)高海拔年轮年表的统计特征更显著, 比低海拔径向生长对气候因子的响应更加敏感; (2)高海拔径向生长主要受上年生长季前期和生长季气温的限制, 尤其是上年6月和8月气温的限制作用, 低海拔径向生长主要与降水量有关, 受当年9月降水量和当年8月帕尔默干旱指数(PDSI)的共同影响; (3)林线内树木对气候响应的敏感性强于林线外, 林线外小生境的异质性及干扰事件频发可能掩盖了树木对气候因子的敏感性, 林线下方可能是检验林线处树木生长对气候响应平均状态的最佳位置; (4)不同海拔年轮年表与气候因子的冗余分析与响应函数分析的结果基本一致, 进一步证明了冗余分析可以有效地量化树轮指数与气候因子的关系。该研究为全球变暖背景下长白山东坡长白落叶松林的管理及该区域气候重建提供了基础数据。  相似文献   

20.
Understanding soil carbon fractions and their responses to the global warming is important for improving soil carbon management of natural altitudinal forest ecosystem. In this study, the contents of soil total organic carbon (SOC), soil labile organic carbon (LOC), and microbial biomass carbon (MBC) in soil upper layers (0–20 cm) were measured along a natural altitudinal transect in the north slope of Changbai Mountain. The results showed that under natural conditions the contents of SOC and LOC were largest in Betula ermanii forest (altitude 1996 m), moderate in spruce-fir forest (altitude 1350 m), and smallest in Korean pine mixed broad-leaf tree forest (altitude 740 m). MBC contents in different forest ecosystems decreased in the order of Betula ermanii forest, Korean pine mixed broad-leaf tree forest, and dark coniferous forest. In addition, the responses of SOC, LOC, and MBC to soil warming were conducted by relocating intact soil cores from high- to low-elevation forests for one year. As expected, the soil core relocation caused significant increase in soil temperature but made no significant effect on soil moisture. After one year incubation, soil relocation significantly decreased SOC contents, whereas the contents of LOC, MBC, and the ratios of LOC to SOC and MBC to SOC increased.  相似文献   

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