The estimation of natural mortality in Irish Sea plaice, Pleuronectes platessa L., using tagging methods

This paper addresses the question as to whether natural mortality ( M ) can be estimated reliably in a heavily exploited fish population. Several methods, including a new opitimization technique based on Pope's cohort model, were used to estimate M from a large series of tagging experiments carried out on the Irish Sea plaice off North Wales and Ireland during the early 1960s, and off North Wales during 1979 and 1980. The assumptions underlying the new method were: (i) that the product of initial survival after tagging and the reporting rate of recaptures ( SB ) was constant for all experiments, and (ii) that the number of recoveries were log-normally distributed. Simulations showed that the estimator was robust to errors in input data. The SB values were low (0.37) but were more precise than the estimates of natural mortality for both sexes. The annual M values were 0.17 and 0.11 with standard errors 0.06 and 0.08 for males and females, respectively. The estimate of M for mature males was low, indicating a low M for older fish. The less precise estimate of M for females because of the inadequate dataset, and the higher M values obtained by applying traditional methods to the same dataset, indicated that a value of 0.2 is more appropriate for both sexes. Suggestions are made for designing and analysing tagging experiments to estimate M .     

河南省部分地区人类免疫缺陷病毒1型耐药性发生和演变的队列研究

目的 了解河南省某地人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)耐药性毒株的进化演变规律.方法 将河南省南部某地74例接受齐多夫定(AZT)+去羟肌苷(ddI)+奈韦拉平(NVP)联合抗病毒治疗的艾滋病患者纳入研究队列,分别在抗病毒治疗后3、6、12、18个月进行随访调查,通过逐一访谈了解一般情况、服药方案、服药依从性及保障措施、抗病毒治疗前后的临床表现等,同时采集14 ml EDTA抗凝静脉血,检测CD4/CD8细胞数、病毒载量及基因型耐药性.结果 核苷类反转录酶抑制剂中,发生频率最高的耐药突变位点是:67、118、151和215.治疗3、6、12、18个月时AZT耐药发生率分别为6.76%、13.51%、14.86%和9.46%,ddI的耐药发生率分别为2.70%、6.76%、8.11%和5.45%,AZT的耐药发生率高于ddI,核苷类反转录酶抑制剂的耐药性呈现出先上升后下降的趋势.非核苷类反转录酶抑制剂的耐药发生率高于核苷类反转录酶抑制剂,发生频率最高的耐药突变位点是:103和181.治疗3、6、12、18个月时,NVP耐药发生率分别为9.46%、18.92%、22.97%和32.43%.非核苷类反转录酶抑制剂呈现出持续上升的耐药发生趋势.耐药和不耐药患者的病毒载量和CD4+T淋巴细胞计数无显著性差异.服药依从性差可能是耐药发生的主要影响因素.结论 本组患者中已出现对非核苷类反转录酶抑制剂的高度耐药,服药依从性是耐药发生的主要影响因素.应加强服药的监督管理,改善患者的服药依从性.     

Sample size/power calculation for case-cohort studies

In epidemiologic studies and disease prevention trials, interest often involves estimation of the relationship between some disease endpoints and individual exposure. In some studies, due to the rarity of the disease and the cost in collecting the exposure information for the entire cohort, a case-cohort design, which consists of a small random sample of the whole cohort and all the diseased subjects, is often used. Previous work has focused on analyzing data from the case-cohort design and few have discussed the sample size issues. In this article, we describe two tests for the case-cohort design, which can be treated as a natural generalization of log-rank test in the full cohort design. We derive an explicit form for power/sample size calculation based on these two tests. A number of simulation studies have been used to illustrate the efficiency of the tests for the case-cohort design. An example is provided on how to use the formula.     

Investigation of first year biotic and abiotic influences on the recruitment of pike Esox lucius over 48 years in Windermere, U.K.

Estimated pike Esox lucius recruitment varied by a factor of 16 for females from 1944 to 1991 and by a factor of 27 for males from 1943 to 1990 in Windermere, a temperate, mesotrophic U.K. lake. No significant stock–recruitment relationships were found, but analysis with general additive models (GAMs) revealed that early autumnal water temperature, strength and direction of the North Atlantic Oscillation displacement (corresponding to different climatic conditions in winter) and zooplankton abundance but above all, late summer water temperature were important explanatory variables over the entire time series. Female recruitment was also influenced by young-of-the-year winter temperature. There was no evidence that perch Perca fluviatilis year-class strength, lake level or the summer position of the Gulf Stream influenced recruitment. The fitted models explained up to c. 65% of the overall observed variation between years.     

Power calculation for case-cohort studies with nonrare events

Case-cohort design has been advocated in many epidemiologic studies when studying rare diseases or events. In this design, with a rare event, all the events are selected for risk-factor assessment. When the event is not rare, it is desirable to consider a generalized case-cohort design, where only a fraction of events are sampled. We provide a valid test statistic to compare hazards functions between two samples for this generalized design and give a method for calculating power. Our result generalizes the result in Cai and Zeng (2004, Biometrics60, 1015-1024), and it shows numerically that efficiency loss due to sampling only part of the events is very low under nonrare-events situation.     

A longitudinal study of medication exposure and xerostomia among older people

Objective: To describe the incidence of xerostomia among a population of older people over a 6‐year period, with particular attention to medications as risk factors. Background: Understanding the natural history of xerostomia requires longitudinal epidemiological research, but only one study has examined changes in xerostomia over time. While medication is a recognised risk factor for dry mouth, the role of particular medication categories continues to be controversial. Materials and methods: Older South Australians (aged 60+) underwent an interview and dental examination at baseline, and these assessments were repeated 2, 5 and 11 years afterward. Medication data were collected at baseline, 5 and 11 years. Xerostomia data were collected at 5 and 11 years using the Xerostomia Inventory (XI) and a standard question. Results: Of the 1205 dentate participants assessed at baseline, 669 remained after 5 years, and 246 were assessed at 11 years. Medication prevalence increased over the observation period, such that 94.8% of the cohort were taking at least one medication by 11 years. The prevalence of xerostomia increased from 21.4% to 24.8% between 5 and 11 years (p > 0.05), and the mean XI score increased from 20.0 (SD, 6.7) to 21.5 (SD, 7.9; p < 0.001). Some 14.7% of participants were incident cases of xerostomia, while 11.4% were remitted cases; 10.1% were cases at both 5 and 11 years. After controlling for gender and ‘baseline’ xerostomia severity (represented by the XI score at 5 years), participants who commenced taking daily aspirin after 5 years had over four times the odds of becoming incident cases, while those who commenced taking a diuretic after 5 years had nearly six times the odds of doing so. Conclusions: While the overall prevalence of xerostomia increased during the observation period, there was considerable instability, with one‐quarter of the cohort changing their status. Medication exposure was strongly associated with the incidence of the condition, with recent exposure to diuretics or daily aspirin strongly predicting it.     

Quantitative observations on the population ecology of Branchiura sowerbyi (Oligochaeta,Tubificidae)

Cohorts of Branchiura sowerbyi were reared at different temperatures and initial population densities in order to obtain data suitable for the interpretation of population dynamics in field populations. Percent hatching from cocoons reaches its maximum at 25 °C and decreases towards lower and higher temperatures. Embryonic development time, T_E, was measured and the relative threshold temperature, 10 °C, calculated by extrapolation. The degree day requirement for embryo development is 195 °C d. The time of first cocoon laying (T_gm) was observed and the ratio T_E/T_gm was seen to fit with that of other tubificid species cultured so far. Embryo mortality is rather high, while worm mortality is low or very low. Fecundity increases from 15 to 20 °C but decreases at 25 °C. A mathematical model for the simulation of population densities with four size-stage compartments is suggested. It could be used for the optimization of worm uptake (simulated as stage specific mortality) in mass cultures reared for the production of Branchiura, to be used as food for fish fingerlings.     

Mortality of a heterogeneous cohort; description and implications

"A recent model for heterogeneous mortality by Vaupel et al....is shown to be based on incorrect definitions. An alternative formulation is presented. The results indicate that current methods for computing the survivorship and life expectation functions underestimate the true values. A method is given for determining the possible magnitude of this underestimation. The method is illustrated by a numerical example using U.S. data."     

Absence of relation between sick leave caused by musculoskeletal disorders and exposure to magnetic fields in an aluminum plant

This is a study of the relationship between occupational exposure to magnetic fields in pot rooms and occurrence of sick leave caused by musculoskeletal disorders. The average exposure to static magnetic fields was 8 mT in the pot rooms. Ripple fields were recorded as well. A cohort of 342 exposed workers and 222 unexposed workers from the same electrolysis plant was retrospectively followed for 5 years. The reference group had a type of work similar to the exposed group except for the exposure to magnetic fields. The occurrence of sick leave and the diagnoses causing the sick leave were obtained from the Occupational Health Care Unit: these data were stored in their computer files. The data were complete. No relationship between the occurrence of sick leave caused by musculoskeletal disorders and exposure to magnetic fields was found. This was the case for both the annual number of periods of sick leave and the total number of days with sick leave. The results must be interpreted with caution due to limitations in the design and available data. Also, static magnetic fields constituted the major exposure, and the results may be different when related to work in other types of magnetic-field exposure. © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Dynamics of a harvested moose population in a variable environment

1. Population size, calves per female, female mean age and adult sex ratio of a moose ( Alces alces ) population in Vefsn, northern Norway were reconstructed from 1967 to 1993 using cohort analysis and catch-at-age data from 96% (6752) of all individuals harvested.
2. The dynamics of the population were influenced mainly by density-dependent harvesting, stochastic variation in climate and intrinsic variation in the age-structure of the female segment of the population.
3. A time delay in the assignment of hunting permits in relation to population size increased fluctuations in population size.
4. Selective harvesting of calves and yearlings increased the mean age of adult females in the population, and, because fecundity in moose is strongly age-specific, the number of calves per female concordantly increased. However, after years with high recruitment, the adult mean age decreased as large cohorts entered the adult age-groups. This age-structure effect generated cycles in the rate of recruitment to the population and fluctuations introduced time-lags in the population dynamics.
5. An inverse relationship between recruitment rate and population density, mediated by a density-dependent decrease in female body condition, could potentially have constituted a regulatory mechanism in the dynamics of the population, but this effect was counteracted by a density-dependent increase in the mean age of adult females.
6. Stochastic variation in winter snow depth and summer temperature had delayed effects on recruitment rate and in turn population growth rate, apparently through effects on female body condition before conception.     

Approaches for Calculating Power for Case–Cohort Studies

Summary .   An approach for determining the power of a case–cohort study for a single binary exposure variable and a low failure rate was recently proposed by Cai and Zeng (2004, Biometrics 60, 1015–1024). In this article, we show that computing power for a case–cohort study using a standard case–control method yields nearly identical levels of power. An advantage of the case–control approach is that existing sample size software can be used for the calculations. We also propose an additional formula for computing the power of a case–cohort study for the situation when the event is not rare.     

Natural history of Helicobacter pylori infection in childhood: eight-year follow-up cohort study in an urban community in northeast of Brazil

Background: Helicobacter pylori infection is acquired predominantly in childhood. There is also evidence that children loss the infection. Therefore, factors that account for children remain infected need to be investigated because once established the infection persists throughout the life unless treated. Methods: This study aimed to evaluate the H. pylori infection in children of a low‐income community at baseline and 8 years later to determine the predictor factors linked to the maintenance, acquisition, and loss of the infection using regression models of generalized estimating equations. H. pylori status was determined by ¹³C‐urea breath test. Results: Data from 37.7% (133/353) of the children were available. No difference between the characteristics of the included and nonincluded children was observed. The prevalence of infection increased from 53.4 to 64.7%. Thirty‐nine children (29.3%) remained noninfected, 47.4% remained infected, 17.3% became infected, and 6.0% lost the infection. Factors associated with to remain infected compared with to remain noninfected included the age, increased number of children in the household, and the use of well water instead of municipal water. The acquisition of the infection was associated with the male gender. Conclusion: Factors linked to remain and to gain H. pylori infection in a poor region were increased number of children in the household and the male gender. Also, the acquisition rates were higher than the loss rates, which lead to an increase in the infection prevalence with age.     

Relationship between survival rates and numbers of natural teeth in an elderly Japanese population

Objectives: The objective of this study was to assess whether elderly people with 20 or more natural teeth were more likely to live longer than a cohort with less than 20 teeth. Materials and methods: Groups of elderly people over 80 years of age (24 males and 35 females) with 20 or more teeth (≥20 group) were compared with elderly people (24 males and 35 females) with less than 20 teeth (<20 group). Follow‐up studies were conducted at regular intervals for 10 years from July 1992 to July 2002. The cumulative survival rate of the ≥20 group (average ± SE tooth number of teeth – males, 23.9 ± 0.6; females, 23.8 ± 0.4) was compared with the <20 group (average number of teeth – males, 3.8 ± 1.1; females, 2.6 ± 0.8). The multivariate Cox proportional hazard models with the number of teeth in a group (≥20 group or <20 group). Smoking status and alcohol intake as covariates were used to adjust the cumulative survival rate. Results: The male participants in the ≥20 group had a significantly higher cumulative survival rates (p < 0.05) than the <20 group at 18 and 21 months from baseline. There were no significant differences in survival rates between the female groups. Adjusted cumulative survival rate was significantly different at 72, 75 and 78 months between the ≥20 group and <20 group for males but not for females. Conclusion: Having 20 or more natural teeth was associated with increased survival rate in elderly males, but not among the elderly females.     

Biomarkers of exposure to environmental tobacco smoke in infants

Non-invasive biomonitoring of exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) by means of hair is attractive in children, although systematic evaluation is required in infants. The objective was to compare nicotine and cotinine concentrations in hair and plasma and parentally reported exposure to ETS in a birth cohort of 411 infants. Plasma was collected from 356 six-month-old infants and hair samples were collected from 368 one-year-old infants. Concentrations of nicotine and cotinine were measured by an optimized gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC/MS)-based method requiring 4 mg hair or 200 µl plasma. Information was obtained on the number of days with ETS exposure during the first year of life, the smoking habits of the parents, and the number of cigarettes smoked per day in the home. All three parentally reported indices of ETS exposure were significantly associated with the biomarkers, with clear dose-response relationships. There was a significant association between days with ETS exposure and nicotine in hair at relatively low exposure levels (10-99 days per year), whereas the other biomarkers only showed significant increases at higher exposure levels. In conclusion, nicotine in hair appears to be the biomarker most strongly associated with parental reports on exposure to ETS in infants.     

Effects of five years of intensive trawling on a previously unexploited smelt stock

In the years 1989–1993, over 1000 metric tons of fish (392 kg ha⁻¹) was removed by trawls from the Enonselkä basin in Lake Vesijärvi in order to enhance the water quality. Roach (52%) and smelt (28%) were the most abundant species in the catches. In this study, the effects of the mass removal on the previously unexploited smelt stock was assessed. The total smelt catch was c . 282 metric tons. Due to the mass removal, the density of the stock collapsed from c . 46 000 fish ha⁻¹ in 1989 to c . 14 000 fish ha⁻¹ in 1993 ( M =1.0). The biomass of the stock decreased from 75 kg ha⁻¹ in 1989 to 12 kg ha⁻¹ in 1993. The age group composition of the stock changed clearly towards the dominance of younger age groups. The male/female relationship in the samples changed from clear dominance of females to the dominance of males and the infection rate by the sporozoan parasite Glugea hertwigi declined. The growth rate of the smelt did not change considerably during the years of mass removal. The results suggest that in biomanipulated lakes several mechanisms may prevent the exploited stock from responding to the increased mortality.     

Helicobacter pylori infection in children in Estonia: decreasing seroprevalence during the 11-year period of profound socioeconomic changes

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection is inversely associated with socioeconomic conditions in childhood. In Estonia, a high prevalence of H. pylori infection has been observed among children born in 1987 and earlier. Since 1991, after the dissolution of the USSR, profound social and economic changes have taken place in the country. The aim of the study was to evaluate changes in the seroprevalence of H. pylori infection among children in the period 1991-2002. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The hospital-based study population consisted of two groups of children enrolled in 1991 (n = 425) and 2002 (n = 296) according to the same inclusion criteria. The immunoglobulin G antibodies to the cell surface proteins of H. pylori were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and the sera with the borderline results were analyzed by immunoblot analysis. Multiple regression analysis was used to determine the associations between H. pylori seropositivity and different variables such as demographic characteristics, diagnoses and year of enrollment. RESULTS: The only two variables linked independently to H. pylori serostatus were age and year of enrollment: the adjusted odds of being H. pylori seropositive were 1.92 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-2.76] times higher for the children enrolled in 1991 compared with the children enrolled in 2002. The age-standardized seroprevalence rate was 42.2% (95% CI 37.4-47.0%) for the group of 1991 and 28.1% (95% CI 23.1-33.6%) for the group of 2002. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of H. pylori infection among children has significantly decreased during the 11-year period of profound socioeconomic changes in Estonia.