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1.
The important parameter of effective population size is rarely estimable directly from demographic data. Indirect estimates of effective population size may be made from genetic data such as temporal variation of allelic frequencies or linkage disequilibrium in cohorts. We suggest here that an indirect estimate of the effective number of breeders might be based on the excess of heterozygosity expected in a cohort of progeny produced by a limited number of males and females. In computer simulations, heterozygote excesses for 30 unlinked loci having various numbers of alleles and allele-frequency profiles were obtained for cohorts produced by samples of breeders drawn from an age-structured population and having known variance in reproductive success and effective number. The 95% confidence limits around the estimate contained the true effective population size in 70 of 72 trials and the Spearman rank correlation of estimated and actual values was 0.991. An estimate based on heterozygote excess might have certain advantages over the previous estimates, requiring only single-locus and single-cohort data, but the sampling error among individuals and the effect of departures from random union of gametes still need to be explored.  相似文献   

2.
Luikart G  Cornuet JM 《Genetics》1999,151(3):1211-1216
The heterozygote-excess method is a recently published method for estimating the effective population size (Ne). It is based on the following principle: When the effective number of breeders (Neb) in a population is small, the allele frequencies will (by chance) be different in males and females, which causes an excess of heterozygotes in the progeny with respect to Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium expectations. We evaluate the accuracy and precision of the heterozygote-excess method using empirical and simulated data sets from polygamous, polygynous, and monogamous mating systems and by using realistic sample sizes of individuals (15-120) and loci (5-30) with varying levels of polymorphism. The method gave nearly unbiased estimates of Neb under all three mating systems. However, the confidence intervals on the point estimates of Neb were sufficiently small (and hence the heterozygote-excess method useful) only in polygamous and polygynous populations that were produced by <10 effective breeders, unless samples included > approximately 60 individuals and 20 multiallelic loci.  相似文献   

3.
We recently identified and confirmed 8 induced mutations in the N2 and N3 progeny of ethyl methanesulfonate (EMS) treated C57BL/6J mice. Each of these mutations altered specific enzyme activities. These separate mutant sublines have been maintained through several generations as heterozygous mutant carriers. The percent decrease of the specific enzyme activity from normal in each subline was calculated for each generation. Additionally, the percentage of breeders within each mutant subline producing abnormal progeny and the fraction of such breeders' total progeny possessing abnormal activity were determined. The aberrant activity values observed in progeny of a confirmed mutant carrier were all lower than normal. 4 of the mutant sublines had decreases in enzyme activities which were constant across the generations analyzed. 3 of the mutant sublines had decreases in activities which were consistent over early generations but changed significantly in later generations. Another subline with decreased enzyme activity was lost. For 7 of the sublines, the number of progeny having altered activity and the number of breeders producing mutant progeny approximated that expected for single gene inheritance. In the remaining subline, a change in the decrease in enzyme activity probably accounts for the deviation from expected inheritance. Although the phenotypes for these quantitative traits are considered to be quasi-continuous, the data indicate that the mutations are probably of major genes.  相似文献   

4.
Summary Best Linear Prediction (BLP) was used to predict breeding values for 1,396 parents from progeny test data in an operational slash pine breeding program. BLP rankings of parents were compared to rankings of averaged standard scores, a common approach in forestry. Using BLP rankings, selection of higher ranking parents tends to choose parents in a larger number of more precise progeny tests. The trend is the opposite with standard scores; higher ranking parents tend to be those in fewer, less precise tests. BLP and a related methodology, Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (BLUP), were developed by dairy cattle breeders and have not been used widely outside of animal breeding for predicting breeding values from messy progeny test data. Application of either of these techniques usually requires simplifying assumptions to keep the problem computationally tractable. The more appropriate technique for a given application depends upon which set of assumptions are better for the given problem. An assumption of homogeneous genetic and error variances and covariances, generally made by animal breeders when applying BLUP, was inappropriate for our data. We employed an approach that treated fixed effects as known and treated the same trait measured in different environments as different traits with heterogeneous variance structures. As tree improvement programs become more complex, the ease with which BLP and BLUP handle messy data and incorporate diverse sources of information should make these techniques appealing to forest tree breeders.  相似文献   

5.
Waples RS 《Molecular ecology》2005,14(11):3335-3352
Although most genetic estimates of contemporary effective population size (Ne) are based on models that assume Ne is constant, in real populations Ne changes (often dramatically) over time, and estimates (Ne) will be influenced by Ne in specific generations. In such cases, it is important to properly match Ne to the appropriate time periods (for example, in computing Ne/N ratios). Here I consider this problem for semelparous species with two life histories (discrete generations and variable age at maturity--the 'salmon' model), for two different sampling plans, and for estimators based on single samples (linkage disequilibrium, heterozygote excess) and two samples (temporal method). Results include the following. Discrete generations: (i) Temporal samples from generations 0 and t estimate the harmonic mean Ne in generations 0 through t - 1 but do not provide information about Ne in generation t; (ii) Single samples provide an estimate of Ne in the parental generation, not the generation sampled; (iii) single-sample and temporal estimates never provide information about Ne in exactly the same generations; (iv) Recent bottlenecks can downwardly bias estimates based on linkage disequilibrium for several generations. Salmon model: (i) A pair of single-cohort (typically juvenile) samples from years 0 and t provide a temporal estimate of the harmonic mean of the effective numbers of breeders in the two parental years (N b(0) and N b(t)), but adult samples are more difficult to interpret because they are influenced by Nb in a number of previous years; (ii) For single-cohort samples, both one-sample and temporal methods provide estimates of Nb in the same years (contrast with results for discrete generation model); (iii) Residual linkage disequilibrium associated with past population size will not affect single-sample estimates of Nb as much as in the discrete generation model because the disequilibrium diffuses among different years of breeders. These results lead to some general conclusions about genetic estimates of Ne in iteroparous species with overlapping generations and identify areas in need of further research.  相似文献   

6.
The present study investigated the relationship between reproductive success and stress-coping styles in gilthead seabream Sparus aurata in captivity. To characterise stress-coping styles, a total of 22 breeders were submitted to three different individual-based tests, one group-based test and post-handling glucocorticoid quantification. To assess spawning participation, a microsatellite analysis was performed on a total of 2698 larvae, which allowed each offspring to be assigned unambiguously to a single parental couple. Overall, S. aurata showed defined proactive and reactive behavioural traits. Proactive breeders exhibited higher levels of activity and risk taking and lower glucocorticoid blood levels than reactive breeders. The stress-coping style traits were consistent over time and context (different tests). Breeders that contributed to a higher number of progeny exhibited proactive behaviours, while those showing low progeny contribution exhibited reactive behaviour. Therefore, breeders with a high proportion of progeny (> 20%) had significantly higher activity and risk taking and lower cortisol than breeders with low progeny contribution (< 20%). In addition, males were more proactive than females and males exhibited significantly higher activity, risk taking and lower cortisol than females. This study is the first to establish in S. aurata breeders: (a) a relationship between stress-coping styles and spawning success; (b) a relationship between stress-coping styles and gender; and (c) the existence of proactive and reactive traits at the adult stage.  相似文献   

7.
The effective number of breeders (N b) for a cohort of progeny can be estimated from an excess of heterozygotes that arises in progeny produced by finite numbers of parents. In principle, N b is a simple function of the standardized deviation (D) of the proportion of heterozygous progeny from its expectation under random mating. We explored the sampling properties of this D-estimator of N b through computer simulation. The accuracy of the D-estimator is remarkably robust to variation in numbers of alleles and loci and the presence of rare alleles, though precision can be low if, relative to a given N b, the sample of progeny or the cumulative number of independent alleles (n ci) sampled is too small. For N b up to 30 parents, acceptable accuracy is achieved with sample sizes of 200 or more progeny and 80 or more independent alleles; for N b of 50–100, a sample of 500–1,000 progeny and 450–900 independent alleles are required for similar accuracy and precision. Though the estimator is most applicable for the situation of random union of gametes (as may occur in some marine invertebrates or fish, for example), it works for other mating systems (monogamous or polygamous pairings, polygyny), when the effective number of breeders is small (N b ≤ 20). Simulations reveal small overestimation biases with smaller sample sizes, rare alleles, or highly polymorphic loci (≥10 alleles). Despite this bias, multiallelic loci are preferable to many loci with few alleles, which have larger sampling errors.  相似文献   

8.
Through the concerted use of doubled haploidy (DH), molecular markers and off-season nurseries, maize (Zea mays L.) breeders have unprecedented capabilities to quickly and precisely create progeny with desired levels of similarity to either parents of a commercial hybrid. Genotypic data from both simulated and from actual populations created either by single seed descent or through doubled haploidy were examined for the initial and subsequent generations. Simulation data showed that DH progeny inherited larger blocks of parental chromosomes; approximately seven out of 10 chromosomes had intact segments of 50% or greater. By the third DH generation progeny can be selected that are more than 90% similar to either parent of the initial commercial hybrid. Actual marker data from the initial DH generation showed a maximum parental contribution of 88.4% compared to 78.7% for progeny developed by single seed descent (SSD). The number of intact chromosomes was higher among DH progeny than among progeny bred by SSD. Use of DH facilitates access to germplasm that is already present in commercial maize hybrids. Available technologies coupled with the intellectual property protection regime will influence decisions made by plant breeders in the balance of exotic compared to well-adapted germplasm they choose to access for further cycles.  相似文献   

9.
The ratio of the effective population size to adult (or census) population size (Ne/N) is an indicator of the extent of genetic variation expected in a population. It has been suggested that this ratio may be quite low for highly fecund species in which there is a sweepstakes-like chance of reproductive success, known as the Hedgecock effect. Here I show theoretically how the ratio may be quite small when there are only a few successful breeders (Nb) and that in this case, the Ne/N ratio is approximately Nb/N. In other words, high variance in reproductive success within a generation can result in a very low effective population size in an organism with large numbers of adults and consequently a very low Ne/N ratio. This finding appears robust when there is a large proportion of families with exactly two progeny or when there is random variation in progeny numbers among these families.  相似文献   

10.
It has been proposed that effective size could be estimated in small dioecious population by considering the heterozygote excess observed at neutral markers. When the number of breeders is small, allelic frequencies in males and females will slightly differ due to binomial sampling error. However, this excess of heterozygotes is not generated by dioecy but by the absence of individuals produced through selfing. Consequently, the approach can also be applied to self-incompatible monoecious species. Some inaccuracies in earlier equations expressing effective size as function of the heterozygote excess are also corrected in this paper. The approach is then extended to subdivided populations, where time of sampling becomes crucial. When adults are sampled, the effective size of the entire population can be estimated, whereas when juveniles are sampled, the average effective number of breeders per subpopulations can be estimated. The main limitation of the heterozygote excess method is that it will only perform satisfactorily for populations with a small number of reproducing individuals. While this situation is unlikely to happen frequently at the scale of the entire population, structured populations with small subpopulations are likely to be common. The estimation of the average number of breeders per subpopulations is thus expected to be applicable to many natural populations. The approach is straightforward to compute and independent of equilibrium assumptions. Applications to simulated data suggest the estimation of the number of breeders to be robust to mutation and migration rates, and to specificities of the mating system.  相似文献   

11.
Genetic variability at five microsatellite loci was analysed in three hatchery-propagated populations of the flat oyster, Ostrea edulis. These populations were part of a selection programme for resistance to the protozoan parasite Bonamia ostreae and were produced by mass spawns, without control of the genealogy. Evidence for population bottlenecks and inbreeding was sought. A reduction in the number of alleles, mainly due to the loss of rare alleles, was observed in all selected populations, relative to the natural population from which they were derived. Heterozygote excesses were observed in two populations, and were attributed to substructuring of the population into a small number of families. Pedigree reconstruction showed that these two populations were produced by at most two spawning events involving a limited number of parents. Most individuals within these populations are half or full-sib, as shown by relatedness coefficients. The occurrence of population bottlenecks was supported by estimates of effective number of breeders derived by three methods: temporal variance in allelic frequencies, heterozygote excess, and a new method based on reduction in the number of alleles. The estimates from the different methods were consistent. The evidence for bottleneck and small effective number of breeders are expected to lead to increasing inbreeding, and have important consequences for the future management of the three O. edulis selected populations.  相似文献   

12.
Many breeding programs have been implemented in developing countries, many of which have been unsuccessful. To better understand the failure of these breeding programs, it is proposed to analyze their adequacy with innovations that are actually adopted by smallholders. The proposed methodology takes account of these innovations, the reasons for their adoption and the objectives of livestock keeping. The N’Dama cattle-breeding program in Senegal was used as a case study. Surveys were carried out among 54 farmers: 27 breeders who participated in this program, 17 of whom recently resigned, and 27 breeders who have never participated. Feeding was the most frequently cited area of innovation, followed by infrastructure. Genetics, animal health and reproduction held the third rank. Milk production appeared as an important objective of breeders, although the context remains one of strong multifunctionality. Principal component analysis highlighted three categories of breeders according to the innovations they adopted: institutional, modernizing, and integrating innovators. The groups of institutional and modernizing innovators dominate, gathering each 41% of the farmers. In the first category, breeders have organized themselves in an association and use N’Dama sires, livestock aiming at an insurance objective. In the second category, artificial insemination with exotic breeds and other technical innovations (cowshed, vaccination, urea treatment of straw) are used to improve production of milk and meat. The third group is termed ‘integrating innovators,’ since their innovations aim at integrating livestock and crop production. Gathering 18% of the sampled breeders, this group presents intermediate features between the two previous groups, using animals as draught power and for manure production. These results indicate that a process of intensification is at play and that the genetic improvement through the selection of N’Dama cattle for production criteria does not meet the breeders’ demand. However, the N’Dama’s adaptive traits justify its use as part of the breeding strategy of farmers, either in pure-breeding or in crossbreeding. The study thus tends to show the interactive link between genetic improvement and other innovations. It suggests that the success of a breeding program depends on its adequate positioning within the set of innovations adopted by breeders and proposes a method to inform breeding programs accordingly.  相似文献   

13.

Background

The mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic remains unclear in many countries due to delays in reporting of death statistics. We estimate the age- and cause-specific excess mortality impact of the pandemic in France, relative to that of other countries and past epidemic and pandemic seasons.

Methods

We applied Serfling and Poisson excess mortality approaches to model weekly age- and cause-specific mortality rates from June 1969 through May 2010 in France. Indicators of influenza activity, time trends, and seasonal terms were included in the models. We also reviewed the literature for country-specific estimates of 2009 pandemic excess mortality rates to characterize geographical differences in the burden of this pandemic.

Results

The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 1.0 (95% Confidence Intervals (CI) 0.2–1.9) excess respiratory deaths per 100,000 population in France, compared to rates per 100,000 of 44 (95% CI 43–45) for the A/H3N2 pandemic and 2.9 (95% CI 2.3–3.7) for average inter-pandemic seasons. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic had a 10.6-fold higher impact than inter-pandemic seasons in people aged 5–24 years and 3.8-fold lower impact among people over 65 years.

Conclusions

The 2009 pandemic in France had low mortality impact in most age groups, relative to past influenza seasons, except in school-age children and young adults. The historical A/H3N2 pandemic was associated with much larger mortality impact than the 2009 pandemic, across all age groups and outcomes. Our 2009 pandemic excess mortality estimates for France fall within the range of previous estimates for high-income regions. Based on the analysis of several mortality outcomes and comparison with laboratory-confirmed 2009/H1N1 deaths, we conclude that cardio-respiratory and all-cause mortality lack precision to accurately measure the impact of this pandemic in high-income settings and that use of more specific mortality outcomes is important to obtain reliable age-specific estimates.  相似文献   

14.
The management of a genetic improvement program is based on the knowledge of the genetic parameters and their relationships to determine the genetic gains. Knowledge of the coefficient of coancestry (θ) is a requirement for efficient progeny testing scheme and for estimating additive variance components for any quantitative trait. When using open-pollinated families, most authors assume that the seedlings are related as half-sibs, but this is not always true. Our aim was to estimate a mean value of the coancestry coefficient of the families present in a maritime pine Pinus pinaster Ait. (maritime or cluster pine) progeny trial originating from seed collected in a clonal seed orchard and to study how deviations from the standard assumption of θ = 0.125 affect heritability estimations. Five highly polymorphic microsatellite markers were scored in 125 offspring from a subsample of five families from the progeny trial. The mean value of the coancestry coefficient of the families present in this progeny trial was 0.130. Differences between the unadjusted and adjusted heritability estimates were more pronounced in wood density (0.609 and 0.586, respectively) than in diameter (0.166 and 0.154, respectively). We conclude that in the trial, the associated error in heritability estimates due to the inclusion of full-sibs, when assuming a standard coefficient of relationship among open-pollinated sibs of 0.250, was low and that this result is robust with respect to the number of families sampled, given unbiased estimates of average relationship among offspring within sib families.  相似文献   

15.
Statistical properties and extensions of Hedrick and Muona's method for mapping viability alleles causing inbreeding depression are discussed in this paper. Their method uses the segregation ratios among selfed progeny of a marker-locus heterozygote to estimate the viability reduction, s, of an allele and its recombination fraction, c, with the marker. Explicit estimators are derived for c and s, including expressions for their variances. The degree of estimation bias is examined for cases when (1) the viability allele is partially recessive and (2) the marker locus is linked to two viability loci. If linkage or viability reduction is moderate, very large sample sizes are required to obtain reliable estimates of c and s, in part because these estimates show a statistical correlation close to unity. Power is further reduced because alleles causing viability reduction often occur at low frequency at specific loci in a population. To increase power, we present a statistical model for the joint analysis of several selfed progeny arrays selected at random from a population. Assuming a fixed total number of progeny, we determine the optimal number of progeny arrays versus number of progeny per array under this model. We also examine the increase of information provided by a second, flanking marker. Two flanking markers provide vastly superior estimation properties, reducing sample sizes by approximately 95% from those required by a single marker.  相似文献   

16.
While measures to control carcass contamination with Salmonella at the processing plant have been implemented with some success, on-farm interventions that reduce Salmonella prevalence in meat birds entering the processing plant have not translated well on a commercial scale. We determined the impact of Salmonella vaccination on commercial poultry operations by monitoring four vaccinated and four nonvaccinated breeder (parental) chicken flocks and comparing Salmonella prevalences in these flocks and their broiler, meat bird progeny. For one poultry company, their young breeders were vaccinated by using a live-attenuated Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium vaccine (Megan VAC-1) followed by a killed Salmonella bacterin consisting of S. enterica serovar Berta and S. enterica serovar Kentucky. The other participating poultry company did not vaccinate their breeders or broilers. The analysis revealed that vaccinated hens had a lower prevalence of Salmonella in the ceca (38.3% versus 64.2%; P < 0.001) and the reproductive tracts (14.22% versus 51.7%; P < 0.001). We also observed a lower Salmonella prevalence in broiler chicks (18.1% versus 33.5%; P < 0.001), acquired from vaccinated breeders, when placed at the broiler farms contracted with the poultry company. Broiler chicken farms populated with chicks from vaccinated breeders also tended to have fewer environmental samples containing Salmonella (14.4% versus 30.1%; P < 0.001). There was a lower Salmonella prevalence in broilers entering the processing plants (23.4% versus 33.5%; P < 0.001) for the poultry company that utilized this Salmonella vaccination program for its breeders. Investigation of other company-associated factors did not indicate that the difference between companies could be attributed to measures other than the vaccination program.  相似文献   

17.
Diverse crops are both outbred and clonally propagated. Breeders typically use truncation selection of parents and invest significant time, land, and money evaluating the progeny of crosses to find exceptional genotypes. We developed and tested genomic mate selection criteria suitable for organisms of arbitrary homozygosity level where the full-sibling progeny are of direct interest as future parents and/or cultivars. We extended cross variance and covariance variance prediction to include dominance effects and predicted the multivariate selection index genetic variance of crosses based on haplotypes of proposed parents, marker effects, and recombination frequencies. We combined the predicted mean and variance into usefulness criteria for parent and variety development. We present an empirical study of cassava (Manihot esculenta), a staple tropical root crop. We assessed the potential to predict the multivariate genetic distribution (means, variances, and trait covariances) of 462 cassava families in terms of additive and total value using cross-validation. Most variance (89%) and covariance (70%) prediction accuracy estimates were greater than zero. The usefulness of crosses was accurately predicted with good correspondence between the predicted and the actual mean performance of family members breeders selected for advancement as new parents and candidate varieties. We also used a directional dominance model to quantify significant inbreeding depression for most traits. We predicted 47,083 possible crosses of 306 parents and contrasted them to those previously tested to show how mate selection can reveal the new potential within the germplasm. We enable breeders to consider the potential of crosses to produce future parents (progeny with top breeding values) and varieties (progeny with top own performance).  相似文献   

18.
Plant breeders are interested in the analysis of phenotypic data to measure genetic effects and heritability of quantitative traits and predict gain from selection. Measurement of phenotypic values of 6 related generations (parents, F(1), F(2), and backcrosses) allows for the simultaneous analysis of both Mendelian and quantitative traits. In 1997, Liu et al. released a SAS software based program (SASGENE) for the analysis of inheritance and linkage of qualitative traits. We have developed a new program (SASQuant) that estimates gene effects (Hayman's model), genetic variances, heritability, predicted gain from selection (Wright's and Warner's models), and number of effective factors (Wright's, Mather's, and Lande's models). SASQuant makes use of traditional genetic models and allows for their easy application to complex data sets. SASQuant is freely available and is intended for scientists studying quantitative traits in plant populations.  相似文献   

19.
When social constraints on the expression of mate preferences are absent, variation in offspring viability is predicted to favour females and males that display mate preferences. Earlier studies showed that female and male house mice, Mus domesticus, tested individually and mated with preferred (P) partners had higher reproductive success and better progeny performance than individuals mated with nonpreferred (NP) partners. Here we tested the effects of mutual mate preferences on reproductive success, offspring viability and performance. We conducted mate preference tests and created four types of reproductive pairings. One involved females and males that preferred each other (P-P); the second type had females that preferred the male but the male did not prefer the female (P-NP); the third had females that did not prefer the male but the male did prefer the female (NP-P). The last set consisted of females and males that did not prefer each other (NP-NP). We measured components of fitness for breeders (reproductive success) and offspring viability (birth-to-weaning viability and weight variation) as well as measures of offspring performance. There were no statistical differences in reproductive success of breeders or offspring viability and quality (weight variation) among the four types of pairings. There were, however, consistent differences between P-P versus NP-NP matings. The number of pups weaned, time to first litter, birth-to-weaning viability, pup body weight at birth and weaning, and the growth rates for pups of both sexes were consistently greater for progeny from P-P matings than NP-NP matings. Significant differences occurred among the four mating types in dominance of sons during aggression trials, nest construction and predator avoidance. Progeny from P-P matings displayed behaviour associated with higher fitness more often than progeny from NP-NP matings. These data show that breeders produce more highly competent progeny, most likely to survive, when social constraints on the expression of mate preferences in both sexes are relaxed.Copyright 2003 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.   相似文献   

20.
ldne is a program with a Visual Basic interface that implements a recently developed bias correction for estimates of effective population size (N(e) ) based on linkage disequilibrium data. The program reads genotypic data in standard formats and can accommodate an arbitrary number of samples, individuals, loci, and alleles, as well as two mating systems: random and lifetime monogamy. ldne calculates separate estimates using different criteria for excluding rare alleles, which facilitates evaluation of data for highly polymorphic markers such as microsatellites. The program also introduces a jackknife method for obtaining confidence intervals that appears to perform better than parametric methods currently in use.  相似文献   

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