A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies

Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demonstrated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of terrain roughness. The model has a term to capture the smoothed frequency relative to the state average. The model is used to examine whether terrain roughness is related to tornado frequency and whether there are differences in tornado activity by County Warning Area (CWA). A key finding is that tornado reports increase by 13% for a two-fold increase in population across Kansas after accounting for improvements in rating procedures. Independent of this relationship, tornadoes have been increasing at an annual rate of 1.9%. Another finding is the pattern of correlated residuals showing more Kansas tornadoes in a corridor of counties running roughly north to south across the west central part of the state consistent with the dryline climatology. The model is significantly improved by adding terrain roughness. The effect amounts to an 18% reduction in the number of tornadoes for every ten meter increase in elevation standard deviation. The model indicates that tornadoes are 51% more likely to occur in counties served by the CWAs of DDC and GID than elsewhere in the state. Flexibility of the model is illustrated by fitting it to data from Illinois, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Ohio.     

Cutaneous Mucormycosis in Tornado Survivors

A total of 18 suspected cases of cutaneous mucormycosis were identified in survivors of the May 2011 tornado in Joplin, Missouri. Apophysomyces trapeziformis was identified in 13 of the patients with microbiologically or histologically proven infection by DNA sequencing. Apophysomyces are classically associated with necrotizing skin and soft-tissue infections following traumatic inoculation of the fungal spores. Although cases of Apophysomyces infection were previously reported in survivors of tsunamis and volcanic eruptions, this is believed to be the first reported case series of cutaneous mucormycosis in tornado survivors.     

Tornado Intensity Estimated from Damage Path Dimensions

The Newcastle/Moore and El Reno tornadoes of May 2013 are recent reminders of the destructive power of tornadoes. A direct estimate of a tornado''s power is difficult and dangerous to get. An indirect estimate on a categorical scale is available from a post-storm survery of the damage. Wind speed bounds are attached to the scale, but the scale is not adequate for analyzing trends in tornado intensity separate from trends in tornado frequency. Here tornado intensity on a continuum is estimated from damage path length and width, which are measured on continuous scales and correlated to the EF rating. The wind speeds on the EF scale are treated as interval censored data and regressed onto the path dimensions and fatalities. The regression model indicates a 25% increase in expected intensity over a threshold intensity of 29 m s⁻¹ for a 100 km increase in path length and a 17% increase in expected intensity for a one km increase in path width. The model shows a 43% increase in the expected intensity when fatalities are observed controlling for path dimensions. The estimated wind speeds correlate at a level of .77 (.34, .93) [95% confidence interval] with a small sample of wind speeds estimated independently from a doppler radar calibration. The estimated wind speeds allow analyses to be done on the tornado database that are not possible with the categorical scale. The modeled intensities can be used in climatology and in environmental and engineering applications. Research is needed to understand the upward trends in path length and width.     

A Box Model for Ecosystem-Level Management of Mussel Culture Carrying Capacity in a Coastal Bay

The carrying capacity of shellfish aquaculture is determined by the interaction of cultured species with the ecosystem, particularly food availability to suspension feeders. A multiple box dynamic ecosystem model was constructed to examine the carrying capacity for mussel (Mytilus edulis) aquaculture in Tracadie Bay, Prince of Edward Island, Canada. Criteria for carrying capacity were based on chlorophyll concentration. The model was run in two different years (1998 and 1999) in which time series for three points inside the bay and a point outside the bay were available. This data set allows spatial validation of the ecosystem model and assessment of its sensitivity to changes in boundary conditions. The model validation process indicated that the differential equations and parameters used in the simulation provided robust prediction of the ecological dynamics within the bay. Results verified that mussel biomass exerts top-down control of phytoplankton populations. The model indicates that conditions observed during 1999 are more sensitive to grazing pressure from aquaculture than was observed during 1998, highlighting the importance of inter-annual variability in carrying capacity of the bay. This result is important from a management perspective because it emphasizes application of a precautionary policy and prediction in regulation of aquaculture activity in the bay. Retrospective scenarios showed that although the bay could yield greater mussel biomass production, stress on the environment would lead the ecosystem outside of its natural range of variation. Despite the spatial simplicity employed in the present model, it provides substantial management capability as well as an ecosystem-oriented approach to shellfish aquaculture.     

A Disposable Plastic Box for Paraffin Embedding

A sheet of cellulose acetate about 0.01 inch thick is clamped over a mold, heated to softness by an electric heater and drawn down over the mold by means of a vacuum. When cooled, the sheet, now formed into embedding boxes, is removed from the clamp. Boxes so made are inexpensive enough to be disposable but can be reused, since the sides of the boxes are sloped to allow easy removal of the paraffin block.     

A Desiccant-Holding Slide Box for Radioautographic Exposure

A double-depth plastic slide box is made by removing the bottoms of two standard 25-slide boxes and cementing the remaining frames together, bottom to bottom. A desiccant is placed in one box cover and fitted to the lower section of the cemented unit. A piece of screening is placed over the desiccant, the upper section filled with slides for radioautogaphy, and the empty cover applied to the top of the assembled box. Thus all slides are kept effectively and uniformly dehydrated during exposure.     

Whole Genome Sequence Typing to Investigate the Apophysomyces Outbreak following a Tornado in Joplin,Missouri, 2011

Case reports of Apophysomyces spp. in immunocompetent hosts have been a result of traumatic deep implantation of Apophysomyces spp. spore-contaminated soil or debris. On May 22, 2011 a tornado occurred in Joplin, MO, leaving 13 tornado victims with Apophysomyces trapeziformis infections as a result of lacerations from airborne material. We used whole genome sequence typing (WGST) for high-resolution phylogenetic SNP analysis of 17 outbreak Apophysomyces isolates and five additional temporally and spatially diverse Apophysomyces control isolates (three A. trapeziformis and two A. variabilis isolates). Whole genome SNP phylogenetic analysis revealed three clusters of genotypically related or identical A. trapeziformis isolates and multiple distinct isolates among the Joplin group; this indicated multiple genotypes from a single or multiple sources. Though no linkage between genotype and location of exposure was observed, WGST analysis determined that the Joplin isolates were more closely related to each other than to the control isolates, suggesting local population structure. Additionally, species delineation based on WGST demonstrated the need to reassess currently accepted taxonomic classifications of phylogenetic species within the genus Apophysomyces.     

A Theft-Resistant Adjustable Security Box for Digital Cameras

Abstract: Remote camera traps are becoming an increasingly popular, affordable, and valuable tool for wildlife research. However, theft and vandalism of these camera systems can result in substantial financial loss and loss of valuable data. We developed an adjustable steel camera security box to protect our Cuddeback® (Non Typical, Inc., Park Falls, WI) digital scouting cameras. Our cameras were deployed for 160 days and experienced no theft or vandalism during that time. Our armored camera box successfully protected our equipment and data, can be sized to accommodate any brand of camera, and can be used in a variety of field situations.     

A Simple Method for Transportation of Mouse Embryos Using Microtubes and a Warm Box

Generally, transportation of preimplantation embryos without freezing requires incubators that can maintain an optimal culture environment with a suitable gas phase, temperature, and humidity. Such incubators are expensive to transport. We reported previously that normal offspring were obtained when the gas phase and temperature could be maintained during transportation. However, that system used plastic dishes for embryo culture and is unsuitable for long-distance transport of live embryos. Here, we developed a simple low-cost embryo transportation system. Instead of plastic dishes, several types of microtubes—usually used for molecular analysis—were tested for embryo culture. When they were washed and attached to a gas-permeable film, the rate of embryo development from the 1-cell to blastocyst stage was more than 90%. The quality of these blastocysts and the rate of full-term development after embryo transfer to recipient female mice were similar to those of a dish-cultured control group. Next, we developed a small warm box powered by a battery instead of mains power, which could maintain an optimal temperature for embryo development during transport. When 1-cell embryos derived from BDF1, C57BL/6, C3H/He and ICR mouse strains were transported by a parcel-delivery service over 3 days using microtubes and the box, they developed to blastocysts with rates similar to controls. After the embryos had been transferred into recipient female mice, healthy offspring were obtained without any losses except for the C3H/He strain. Thus, transport of mouse embryos is possible using this very simple method, which might prove useful in the field of reproductive medicine.     

Tornado damage and initial recovery in three adjacent,lowland temperate forests in Missouri

Abstract. We surveyed tornado damage 14 months after disturbance in three adjacent forest sites in southeastern Missouri, USA: upland, an occasionally-flooded lowland and a frequently flooded swamp. We analysed three 0.09-ha plots in the swamp, and three 0.04-ha plots in the other sites and recorded the herbaceous-layer in five 1-m² quadrats per plot. Overall, 30 % of the individuals and 64 % of the basal area of these sites was blown down. However, mortality was less than structural damage: 20 % of the trees were dead 14 months post-disturbance, an intermediate level of mortality relative to other wind disturbances. Damage varied widely among species, sites and tree sizes, but large trees of all species were most likely to be damaged and least likely to resprout. While damage was greatest in the wettest site, we attribute the increase to larger tree sizes and lower density there, rather than to inherent rooting instability. This study suggests that different forest composition and structure may be sufficient to cause differential damage, without topographic effects. Herbaceous-layer response was more rapid than in a previously reported tornado windthrow in Pennsylvania, and was dominated by fast-growing, shade-intolerant forbs.     

Population Ecology of the Eastern Box Turtle in a Fragmented Landscape

Abstract: In the mid-Atlantic region, urban sprawl and development have resulted in habitat alterations and fragmentation; however, the effects on eastern box turtle (Terrapene carolina carolina) populations are unclear. To investigate the status of eastern box turtle populations in a fragmented landscape, we used mark—recapture and radiotelemetry to estimate population density, sex ratio, age structure, and survival on 4 study areas with differing degrees of isolation and human disturbance in northern New Castle County, Delaware, USA. We estimated adult population densities ranging from 0.81 turtles/ha to 3.62 turtles/ha among our 4 study areas. Sex ratios were male-biased at 2 study areas and balanced at 2 study areas. Proportion of juveniles ranged from 0% to 31%. Estimated annual survival rate ranged from 0.813 to 0.977. Mortality of radiotagged and marked turtles was primarily due to natural causes, but mowing was the primary cause of human-induced mortality. We found evidence of population decline at one study area due to low survival and recruitment. Human disturbances, isolation, and habitat composition appear to have the greatest influence on the box turtle populations we studied. To minimize mortality from human disturbance, we suggest planting crops adjacent to forest habitat that require no mowing or mowing at a height ≥15 cm. (JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 72(3):745–753; 2008)     

Environmental Exchange Box

In this activity, teachers in one state create and share an “exchange box” of environmental and cultural items with students of another state. The Environmental Exchange Box activity enables teachers to improve students' skills in scientific inquiry and develop attitudes and values conducive to science learning such as wonder, curiosity, and respect for different social perceptions. Teachers will be able to work beyond the limits of the classroom and introduce outside resources to help increase students' global awareness and promote respect for the culture and environment of diverse populations. Specifically, this activity can help teachers fulfill national Teaching Standards B, D, and E.     

Introduction of a surgical Black Box system in a hybrid angiosuite: Challenges and opportunities

PurposeIn laparoscopy, the Operating Room Black Box® (ORBB) provides insights into operative performance to improve patient safety. This technology may also enhance endovascular surgical practice; however, the use of a C-arm and X-rays pose important challenges, hindering transferability to an endovascular context. We describe the first implementation of ORBB technology in a hybrid angiosuite and illustrate its value in evaluating surgeons’ radiation safety, technical and non-technical performance.MethodsTeam members (surgeons, nurses, anaesthesiologists) and stakeholders were informed during several information sessions. Together with teams from Surgical Safety Technologies (Toronto, Canada), an implementation plan was developed, and video-evaluation frameworks were chosen.Radiation safety was assessed using dose measurements and video-evaluation of safety-related behaviours. Technical performance was assessed using ‘global’ (GRS) and ‘procedure-specific’ (PRS) rating scales and the ‘EndoVascular Aortic Repair Assessment of Technical Expertise’ (EVARATE) framework. Surgeons’ non-technical skills were assessed with the NOTSS framework.ResultsThe system captures Audio-visual data from four ceiling-mounted cameras, three ceiling-array microphones, the fluoroscopy screen and anaesthesia monitor. After patient and team consent, an elective endovascular aneurysm repair was successfully analysed. Dose-Area-Product and Air Kerma were 71094 mGy.cm² and 270 mGy, respectively. Behavioural analysis revealed deficiencies in stepping back and radiation safety communication. Technical skill assessment was feasible: GRS: 29/40; ‘PRS’: 27/35; EVARATE: 29/35. Non-technical analysis highlighted surgeons’ leadership qualities.ConclusionAn innovative data capture platform has been successfully installed to evaluate overall performance during endovascular procedures. This technology may facilitate identification of (radiation) safety-related errors and instigate educational interventions based on real-world issues.     

Tornado damage of Quercus stellata and Quercus marilandica in the Cross Timbers,Oklahoma, USA

Questions: The Cross Timbers are a mosaic of savannas, grasslands and upland forests, occupying a significant portion of south‐central North America. Our questions here were (1) how does a severe tornado affect the two most dominant tree species of the area Quercus marilandica and Q. stellata with respect to damage and mortality; (2) how do such patterns vary as a function of tree size? What are the implications of disturbance for codominance in species‐poor systems? Location: The Cross Timbers in Oklahoma, USA. Methods: We established a 14.48‐ha permanent plot following a severe tornado in 2003. We identified, numbered and tagged each tree and recorded its diameter at breast height (DBH), spatial coordinates, status (dead or alive), and damage type. We examined (1) relative abundance before and after the tornado; (2) differences in damage and mortality, and (3) the influence of tree diameter on the probability of damage and mortality for each species. Results: Differences in species identity and tree characteristics were significantly related to tree mortality following the tornado, after accounting for spatial locations. The odds of mortality were 12.0 times greater for Q. marilandica than for Q. stellata. Such greater vulnerability of Q. marilandica versus Q. stellata was also reflected in changes in density and basal area. Tree diameter clearly influenced the damage and mortality pattern in Q. stellata; larger trees sustained more damage and mortality. However, Q. marilandica did not exhibit size‐dependent mortality. Conclusion: The tornado affected the two dominant species differently. The intra‐ and inter‐specific differences in windstorm susceptibility may allow coexistence of the two species and are potentially important in the dynamics of the Cross Timbers. Species more damaged might finally benefit from the wind disturbance due to their resprouting ability.