Development of an Adverse Drug Reaction Risk Assessment Score among Hospitalized Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease

Background

Adverse drug reactions (ADRs) represent a major burden on the healthcare system. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients are particularly vulnerable to ADRs because they are usually on multiple drug regimens, have multiple comorbidities, and because of alteration in their pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamic parameters. Therefore, one step towards reducing this burden is to identify patients who are at increased risk of an ADR.

Objective

To develop a method of identifying CKD patients who are at increased risk for experiencing ADRs during hospitalisation.

Materials and Methods

Factors associated with ADRs were identified by using demographic, clinical and laboratory variables of patients with CKD stages 3 to 5 (estimated glomerular filtration rate, 10–59 ml/min/1.73 m²) who were admitted between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2012, to the renal unit of Dubai Hospital. An ADR risk score was developed by constructing a series of logistic regression models. The overall model performance for sequential models was evaluated using Akaike Information Criterion for goodness of fit. Odd ratios of the variables retained in the best model were used to compute the risk scores.

Results

Of 512 patients (mean [SD] age, 60 [16] years), 62 (12.1%) experienced an ADR during their hospitalisation. An ADR risk score included age 65 years or more, female sex, conservatively managed end-stage renal disease, vascular disease, serum level of C-reactive protein more than 10 mg/L, serum level of albumin less than 3.5 g/dL, and the use of 8 medications or more during hospitalization. The C statistic, which assesses the ability of the risk score to predict ADRs, was 0.838; 95% CI, 0.784–0.892).

Conclusion

A score using routinely available patient data can be used to identify CKD patients who are at increased risk of ADRs.     

Multi-Indication Carbamazepine and the Risk of Severe Cutaneous Adverse Drug Reactions in Korean Elderly Patients: A Korean Health Insurance Data-Based Study

Objective

To evaluate the risk of severe cutaneous adverse drug reactions (SCAR) after exposure to multi-indication antiepileptic drugs for in Korean elderly patients.

Methods

We used a nationwide database from the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service claims constructed for the monitoring of drug utilization among the entire Korean elderly population from January 2005 to June 2006. We identified cases of SCARs among inpatients aged ≥65 years and those newly diagnosed with erythema multiforme according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision code (L51). Each case was matched to four controls for gender, age, and the first hospitalization date as the index date. The use of carbamazepine, gabapentin, lamotrigine, topiramate, phenobarbital, phenytoin, and valproate during a 60-day period before the index date was compared. A conditional logistic regression analysis was performed to calculate the odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of SCARs for antiepileptic drug.

Results

We identified 286 cases of SCAR and 1,144 matched controls. Among the 25 patients who were prescribed antiepileptic drugs within 60 days of the index date. There were 11 cases (3.8%) of severe ocular manifestations, and most elderly patients were first-time or short-term users of antiepileptic drugs. Among the 10 cases of carbamazepine use, only 2 cases were prescribed carbamazepine for seizure. All antiepileptic drugs were associated with an increased SCAR risk (adjusted OR = 3.42, 95% CI: 1.75–6.63). The SCAR risk was highest in patients treated with carbamazepine (adjusted OR = 10.39, 95% CI: 2.64–40.86, for multi-indication; adjusted OR = 6.84, 95% CI: 1.55–30.10, for neuropathic pain).

Conclusion

Carbamazepine use was associated with a nearly 10-fold increase in severe cutaneous drug reactions in Korean elderly patients. This association was consistently high with SCAR patients who received carbamazepine for neuropathic pain.     

Predictability of Liver-Related Seromarkers for the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients

Background

Hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major global health problem. A few risk calculators have been developed using mainly HBV seromarkers as predictors. However, serum HBV DNA level, HBV genotype, and mutants are not routinely checked in regular health examinations. This study aimed to assess the predictability of HCC risk in chronic hepatitis B patients, using a combination of liver-related seromarkers combined with or without HBV seromarkers.

Methods

A prospective cohort of 1,822 anti-HCV-seronegative chronic HBV carriers was included in this study. Liver-related seromarkers including aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), total bilirubin, total protein, albumin, serum globulins, apolipoprotein A1, and apolipoprotein B were examined. Hazard ratios of HCC with 95% confidence intervals were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Regression coefficients of seromarkers significantly associated with HCC risk in multivariate analyses were used to create integer risk scores. The predictability of various risk models were assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs).

Results

During a median follow-up of 5.9 years, 48 newly-developed HCC cases were ascertained. Elevated serum levels of ALT (≥28 U/L), AFP (≥5 ng/mL), and GGT (≥41 U/L), an increased AST/ALT ratio (AAR, ≥1), and lowered serum levels of albumin (≤4.1 g/dL) and alpha-1 globulin (≤0.2 g/dL) were significantly associated with an increased HCC risk (P<0.05) in multivariate analysis. The risk model incorporating age, gender, AAR, and serum levels of ALT, AFP, GGT, albumin, and alpha-1 globulin had an AUROC of 0.89 for predicting 6-year HCC incidence. The AUROC was 0.91 after the addition of HBV seromarkers into the model, and 0.83 for the model without liver-related seromarkers, with the exception of ALT.

Conclusion

Liver-related seromarkers may be combined into useful risk models for predicting HBV-related HCC risk.     

Development and Validation of a Clinical Scoring System for Predicting Risk of HCC in Asymptomatic Individuals Seropositive for Anti-HCV Antibodies

Background

The development of a risk assessment tool for long-term hepatocellular carcinoma risk would be helpful in identifying high-risk patients and providing information of clinical consultation.

Methods

The model derivation and validation cohorts consisted of 975 and 572 anti-HCV seropositives, respectively. The model included age, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), the ratio of aspirate aminotransferase to ALT, serum HCV RNA levels and cirrhosis status and HCV genotype. Two risk prediction models were developed: one was for all-anti-HCV seropositives, and the other was for anti-HCV seropositives with detectable HCV RNA. The Cox''s proportional hazards models were utilized to estimate regression coefficients of HCC risk predictors to derive risk scores. The cumulative HCC risks in the validation cohort were estimated by Kaplan-Meier methods. The area under receiver operating curve (AUROC) was used to evaluate the performance of the risk models.

Results

All predictors were significantly associated with HCC. The summary risk scores of two models derived from the derivation cohort had predictability of HCC risk in the validation cohort. The summary risk score of the two risk prediction models clearly divided the validation cohort into three groups (p<0.001). The AUROC for predicting 5-year HCC risk in the validation cohort was satisfactory for the two models, with 0.73 and 0.70, respectively.

Conclusion

Scoring systems for predicting HCC risk of HCV-infected patients had good validity and discrimination capability, which may triage patients for alternative management strategies.     

Adverse Reactions Due to Directly Observed Treatment Strategy Therapy in Chinese Tuberculosis Patients: A Prospective Study

Background

More than 1 million tuberculosis (TB) patients are receiving directly observed treatment strategy (DOTS) therapy in China every year. As to the profile of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) due to DOTS therapy, no consensus has been reached. There is no report regarding ADRs due to DOTS therapy with a large Chinese TB population. This study aimed to determine the incidence and prognosis of ADRs due to DOTS therapy, and to evaluate their impact on anti-TB treatment in China.

Methods

A prospective population-based cohort study was performed during 2007–2008. Sputum smear positive pulmonary TB patients who received DOTS therapy were included and followed up for six to nine months in 52 counties of four regions in China. The suspected ADRs were recorded and reviewed by Chinese State Food and Drug Administration.

Results

A total of 4304 TB patients were included in this study. 649 patients (15.08%) showed at least one ADR and 766 cases in total were detected. The incidence (count) of ADR based on affected organ was: liver dysfunction 6.34% (273), gastrointestinal disorders 3.74% (161), arthralgia 2.51% (108), allergic reactions 2.35% (101), neurological system disorders 2.04% (88), renal impairment 0.07% (3) and others 0.05% (2). Most cases of ADRs (95%) had a good clinical outcome, while two with hepatotoxicity and one with renal impairment died. Compared with patients without ADRs, patients with ADRs were more likely to have positive smear test results at the end of the intensive phase (adjusted OR, 2.00; 95%CI, 1.44–2.78) and unsuccessful anti-TB outcomes (adjusted OR, 2.58; 95%CI, 1.43–4.68).

Conclusions

The incidence of ADRs due to DOTS therapy was 15.08%. Those ADRs had a substantial impact on TB control in China. This highlighted the importance of developing strategies to ameliorate ADRs both to improve the quality of patient care and to control TB safely.     

Month 2 Culture Status and Treatment Duration as Predictors of Tuberculosis Relapse Risk in a Meta-Regression Model

Background

New drugs and regimens with the potential to transform tuberculosis treatment are presently in early stage clinical trials.

Objective

The goal of the present study was to infer the required duration of these treatments.

Method

A meta-regression model was developed to predict relapse risk using treatment duration and month 2 sputum culture positive rate as predictors, based on published historical data from 24 studies describing 58 regimens in 7793 patients. Regimens in which rifampin was administered for the first 2 months but not subsequently were excluded. The model treated study as a random effect.

Results

The model predicted that new regimens of 4 or 5 months duration with rates of culture positivity after 2 months of 1% or 3%, would yield relapse rates of 4.0% or 4.1%, respectively. In both cases, the upper limit of the 2-sided 80% prediction interval for relapse for a hypothetical trial with 680 subjects per arm was <10%. Analysis using this model of published month 2 data for moxifloxacin-containing regimens indicated they would result in relapse rates similar to standard therapy only if administered for ≥5 months.

Conclusions

This model is proposed to inform the required duration of treatment of new TB regimens, potentially hastening their accelerated approval by several years.     

Performance of Real-Time Elastography for the Staging of Hepatic Fibrosis: A Meta-Analysis

Background

With the rapid development of real-time elastography (RTE), a variety of measuring methods have been developed for the assessment of hepatic fibrosis. We evaluated the overall performance of four methods based on RTE by performing meta-analysis of published literature.

Methods

Online journal databases and a manual search from April 2000 to April 2014 were used. Studies from different databases that meet inclusion criteria were enrolled. The statistical analysis was performed using a random-effects model and fixed-effects model for the overall effectiveness of RTE. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was calculated for various means. Fagan plot analysis was used to estimate the clinical utility of RTE, and the heterogeneity of the studies was explored with meta-regression analysis.

Results

Thirteen studies from published articles were enrolled and analyzed. The combined AUROC of the liver fibrosis index (LFI) for the evaluation of significant fibrosis (F≥2), advanced fibrosis (F≥3), and cirrhosis (F = 4) were 0.79, 0.94, and 0.85, respectively. The AUROC of the elasticity index (EI) ranged from 0.75 to 0.92 for F≥2 and 0.66 to 0.85 for F = 4. The overall AUROC of the elastic ratio of the liver for the intrahepatic venous vessels were 0.94, 0.93, and 0.96, respectively. The AUROC of the elastic ratio of the liver for the intercostal muscle in diagnosing advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis were 0.96 and 0.92, respectively. There was significant heterogeneity in the diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) for F≥2 of LFI mainly due to etiology (p<0.01).

Conclusion

The elastic ratio of the liver for the intrahepatic vein has excellent precision in differentiating each stage of hepatic fibrosis and is recommend to be applied to the clinic.     

Adverse drug reactions related hospital admissions in persons aged 60 years and over, The Netherlands, 1981-2007: less rapid increase, different drugs

Background

Epidemiologic information on time trends of Adverse Drug Reactions (ADR) and ADR-related hospitalizations is scarce. Over time, pharmacotherapy has become increasingly complex. Because of raised awareness of ADR, a decrease in ADR might be expected. The aim of this study was to determine trends in ADR-related hospitalizations in the older Dutch population.

Methodology and Principal Findings

Secular trend analysis of ADR-related hospital admissions in patients ≥60 years between 1981 and 2007, using the National Hospital Discharge Registry of the Netherlands. Numbers, age-specific and age-adjusted incidence rates (per 10,000 persons) of ADR-related hospital admissions were used as outcome measures in each year of the study. Between 1981 and 2007, ADR-related hospital admissions in persons ≥60 years increased by 143%. The overall standardized incidence rate increased from 23.3 to 38.3 per 10,000 older persons. The increase was larger in males than in females. Since 1997, the increase in incidence rates of ADR-related hospitalizations flattened (percentage annual change 0.65%), compared to the period 1981–1996 (percentage annual change 2.56%).

Conclusion/Significance

ADR-related hospital admissions in older persons have shown a rapidly increasing trend in the Netherlands over the last three decades with a temporization since 1997. Although an encouraging flattening in the increasing trend of ADR-related admissions was found around 1997, the incidence is still rising, which warrants sustained attention to this problem.     

Clinical Prediction Rule for Stratifying Risk of Pulmonary Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis

Background

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), resistance to at least isoniazid and rifampin, is a worldwide problem.

Objective

To develop a clinical prediction rule to stratify risk for MDR-TB among patients with pulmonary tuberculosis.

Methods

Derivation and internal validation of the rule among adult patients prospectively recruited from 37 health centers (Perú), either a) presenting with a positive acid-fast bacillus smear, or b) had failed therapy or had a relapse within the first 12 months.

Results

Among 964 patients, 82 had MDR-TB (prevalence, 8.5%). Variables included were MDR-TB contact within the family, previous tuberculosis, cavitary radiologic pattern, and abnormal lung exam. The area under the receiver-operating curve (AUROC) was 0.76. Selecting a cut-off score of one or greater resulted in a sensitivity of 72.6%, specificity of 62.8%, likelihood ratio (LR) positive of 1.95, and LR negative of 0.44. Similarly, selecting a cut-off score of two or greater resulted in a sensitivity of 60.8%, specificity of 87.5%, LR positive of 4.85, and LR negative of 0.45. Finally, selecting a cut-off score of three or greater resulted in a sensitivity of 45.1%, specificity of 95.3%, LR positive of 9.56, and LR negative of 0.58.

Conclusion

A simple clinical prediction rule at presentation can stratify risk for MDR-TB. If further validated, the rule could be used for management decisions in resource-limited areas.     

Bias in Spontaneous Reporting of Adverse Drug Reactions in Japan

Background

Attitudes of healthcare professionals regarding spontaneous reporting of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) in Japan are not well known, and Japan’s unique system of surveillance, called early post-marketing phase vigilance (EPPV), may affect these reporting attitudes. Our objectives were to describe potential effects of EPPV and to test whether ADR seriousness, prominence, and frequency are related to changes in reporting over time.

Methods

A manufacturer’s database of spontaneous ADR reports was used to extract data from individual case safety reports for 5 drugs subject to EPPV. The trend of reporting and the time lag between ADR onset and reporting to the manufacturer were examined. The following indices for ADRs occurring with each drug were calculated and analyzed to assess reporting trends: Serious:Non-serious ratio, High prominence:Low prominence ratio, and High frequency:Low frequency ratio.

Results

For all 5 drugs, the time lag between ADR onset and reporting to the manufacturer was shorter in the EPPV period than in the post-EPPV period. All drugs showed higher Serious:Non-serious ratios in the post-EPPV period. No specific patterns were observed for the High prominence:Low prominence ratio. The High frequency:Low frequency ratio for peginterferon alpha-2a and sevelamer hydrochloride decreased steadily throughout the study period.

Conclusions

Healthcare professionals may be more likely to report serious ADRs than to report non-serious ADRs, but the effect of event prominence on reporting trends is still unclear. Factors associated with ADR reporting attitude in Japan might be different from those in other countries because of EPPV and the involvement of medical representatives in the spontaneous reporting process. Pharmacovigilance specialists should therefore be cautious when comparing data between different time periods or different countries. Further studies are needed to elucidate the underlying mechanism of spontaneous ADR reporting in Japan.     

Risk Factors for Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (CRPC) Predict Long-Term Treatment with Docetaxel

Purpose

For patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostatic cancer (mCRPC), docetaxel plus prednisone leads to superior survival and a higher response rate compared with mitoxantrone plus prednisone. We analyzed the efficacy of long-term treatment with ≥10 cycles of docetaxel, and validated the risk group classification in predicting overall survival (OS) in Japanese patients with mCRPC.

Patients and Methods

Fifty-two patients with mCRPC were administered 55 mg/m² docetaxel and 8 mg dexamethasone, every 3 or 4 weeks, simultaneously with hormonal therapy and daily oral dexamethasone. They were divided into two groups, short-term (9 or fewer cycles) and long-term (10 or more cycles). Four risk factors including the presence of anemia, bone metastases, significant pain and visceral metastases were utilized for the risk group classification.

Results

Fourteen patients (27%) had an elevation of PSA in spite of docetaxel treatment, while 23 patients (44%) had a decline in PSA level, including 9 patients (17%) whose PSA level declined by ≥50%. The median duration of OS after the initiation of this therapy was 11.2 months in the short-term group and 28.5 months in the long-term group. The good risk group showed a significant difference in OS compared with the intermediate and poor risk groups (P<0.001). The median number of cycles of treatment was 14, 4 and 3 for each risk group, respectively (p<0.01).

Conclusions

The present study indicated that ≥10 cycles of this docetaxel therapy can significantly prolong survival in Japanese men with CRPC. This risk group classification for men with mCRPC at the initiation of this chemotherapy is useful.     

A Higher Dosage of Oral Alendronate Will Increase the Subsequent Cancer Risk of Osteoporosis Patients in Taiwan: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background

Controversy still exists regarding whether alendronate (ALN) use increases the risk of esophageal cancer or breast cancer.

Methods

This paper explores the possible association between the use of oral ALN in osteoporosis patients and subsequent cancer risk using the National Health Insurance (NHI) system database of Taiwan with a Cox proportional-hazard regression analysis. The exposure cohort contained 5,624 osteoporosis patients used ALN and randomly frequency-matched by age and gender of 3 osteoporosis patients without any kind of anti-osteoporosis drugs in the same period.

Results

For a dose ≥1.0 g/year, the risk of developing overall cancer was significantly higher (hazard ratio: 1.69, 95% confidence ratio: 1.39–2.04) than in osteoporosis patients without any anti-osteoporosis drugs. The risks for developing liver, lung, and prostate cancers and lymphoma were also significantly higher than in the control group.

Conclusions

This population-based retrospective cohort study did not find a relationship between ALN use and either esophageal or breast cancer, but unexpectedly discovered that use of ALN with dose ≥1.0 g/year significantly increased risks of overall cancer incidence, as well as liver, lung, and prostate cancers and lymphoma. Further large population-based unbiased studies to enforce our findings are required before any confirmatory conclusion can be made.     

Nurses and Physicians in a Medical Admission Unit Can Accurately Predict Mortality of Acutely Admitted Patients: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

There exist several risk stratification systems for predicting mortality of emergency patients. However, some are complex in clinical use and others have been developed using suboptimal methodology. The objective was to evaluate the capability of the staff at a medical admission unit (MAU) to use clinical intuition to predict in-hospital mortality of acutely admitted patients.

Methods

This is an observational prospective cohort study of adult patients (15 years or older) admitted to a MAU at a regional teaching hospital. The nursing staff and physicians predicted in-hospital mortality upon the patients'' arrival. We calculated discriminatory power as the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUROC) and accuracy of prediction (calibration) by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.

Results

We had a total of 2,848 admissions (2,463 patients). 89 (3.1%) died while admitted. The nursing staff assessed 2,404 admissions and predicted mortality in 1,820 (63.9%). AUROC was 0.823 (95% CI: 0.762–0.884) and calibration poor. Physicians assessed 738 admissions and predicted mortality in 734 (25.8% of all admissions). AUROC was 0.761 (95% CI: 0.657–0.864) and calibration poor. AUROC and calibration increased with experience. When nursing staff and physicians were in agreement (±5%), discriminatory power was very high, 0.898 (95% CI: 0.773–1.000), and calibration almost perfect. Combining an objective risk prediction score with staff predictions added very little.

Conclusions

Using only clinical intuition, staff in a medical admission unit has a good ability to identify patients at increased risk of dying while admitted. When nursing staff and physicians agreed on their prediction, discriminatory power and calibration were excellent.     

A Systematic Investigation of Computation Models for Predicting Adverse Drug Reactions (ADRs)

Background

Early and accurate identification of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) is critically important for drug development and clinical safety. Computer-aided prediction of ADRs has attracted increasing attention in recent years, and many computational models have been proposed. However, because of the lack of systematic analysis and comparison of the different computational models, there remain limitations in designing more effective algorithms and selecting more useful features. There is therefore an urgent need to review and analyze previous computation models to obtain general conclusions that can provide useful guidance to construct more effective computational models to predict ADRs.

Principal Findings

In the current study, the main work is to compare and analyze the performance of existing computational methods to predict ADRs, by implementing and evaluating additional algorithms that have been earlier used for predicting drug targets. Our results indicated that topological and intrinsic features were complementary to an extent and the Jaccard coefficient had an important and general effect on the prediction of drug-ADR associations. By comparing the structure of each algorithm, final formulas of these algorithms were all converted to linear model in form, based on this finding we propose a new algorithm called the general weighted profile method and it yielded the best overall performance among the algorithms investigated in this paper.

Conclusion

Several meaningful conclusions and useful findings regarding the prediction of ADRs are provided for selecting optimal features and algorithms.     

A Risk Assessment Model for Type 2 Diabetes in Chinese

Aims

To develop a risk assessment model for persons at risk from type 2 diabetes in Chinese.

Materials and Methods

The model was generated from the cross-sectional data of 16246 persons aged from 20 years old and over. C4.5 algorithm and multivariate logistic regression were used for variable selection. Relative risk value combined with expert decision constructed a comprehensive risk assessment for evaluating the individual risk category. The validity of the model was tested by cross validation and a survey performed six years later with some participants.

Results

Nine variables were selected as risk variables. A mathematical model was established to calculate the average probability of diabetes in each cluster''s group divided by sex and age. A series of criteria combined with relative RR value (2.2) and level of risk variables stratified individuals into four risk groups (non, low, medium and high risk). The overall accuracy reached 90.99% evaluated by cross-validation inside the model population. The incidence of diabetes for each risk group increased from 1.5 (non-risk group) to 28.2(high-risk group) per one thousand persons per year with six years follow-up.

Discussion

The model could determine the individual risk for type 2 diabetes by four risk degrees. This model could be used as a technique tool not only to support screening persons at different risk, but also to evaluate the result of the intervention.     

External Validation of a Nomogram That Predicts the Pathological Diagnosis of Thyroid Nodules in a Chinese Population

Introduction

Nomograms are statistical predictive models that can provide the probability of a clinical event. Nomograms have better performance for the estimation of individual risks because of their increased accuracy and objectivity relative to physicians’ personal experiences. Recently, a nomogram for predicting the likelihood that a thyroid nodule is malignant was introduced by Nixon. The aim of this study was to determine whether Nixon’s nomogram can be validated in a Chinese population.

Materials and Methods

All consecutive patients with thyroid nodules who underwent surgery between January and June 2012 in our hospital were enrolled to validate Nixon’s nomogram. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the risk factors for thyroid carcinoma. Discrimination and calibration were employed to evaluate the performance of Nixon’s model in our population.

Results

A total of 348 consecutive patients with 409 thyroid nodules were enrolled. Thyroid ultrasonographic characteristics, including shape, echo texture, calcification, margins, vascularity and number (solitary vs. multiple nodules), were associated with malignance in the multivariate analysis. The discrimination of all nodules group, the group with a low risk of malignancy (predictive proportion <50%) and the group with a high risk of malignancy (predictive proportion ≥50%) using Nixon’s nomogram was satisfactory, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the three groups were 0.87, 0.75 and 0.72, respectively. However, the calibration was significant (p = 0.55) only in the high-risk group.

Conclusion

Nixon’s nomogram is a valuable predictive model for the Chinese population and has been externally validated. It has good performance for patients with a high risk of malignancy and may be more suitable for use with these patients in China.     

Utility and Limitation of Cumulative Stone Diameter in Predicting Urinary Stone Burden at Flexible Ureteroscopy with Holmium Laser Lithotripsy: A Single-Center Experience

Purpose

To retrospectively assess the clinical utility in ureteroscopy (URS) planning of cumulative stone diameter (CSD), which does not account for stone width or depth, as a predictor of URS outcome and compare it with stone volume.

Materials and Methods

Patients with renal stones treated at a single institute by flexible URS were retrospectively evaluated. To assess the clinical utility of CSD, relationships between stone-free (SF) status and stone burden (CSD and volume) were analyzed using the area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve. To identify stone number impact on CSD, the AUROC of CSD divided by stone number was evaluated. Correlation coefficients of CSD and stone volume were also calculated for groups by stone number.

Results

In cases with CSD <20.0 mm, CSD and stone volume revealed equal ability to predict SF status. In cases with CSD ≥20.0 mm, stone volume showed higher predictive ability. The ROC curves for cases with ≥4 stones showed that CSD was less predictive of SF status than stone volume. The correlation coefficients of CSD and stone volume by stone number were 0.922 for 1 stone, 0.900 for 2–3 stones, and 0.661 for ≥4 stones.

Conclusions

In cases with CSD ≥20.0 mm or ≥4 stones, we should evaluate stone volume for a more predictive stone burden, and pretreatment non-contrast CT seems sufficient. In cases with CSD <20.0 mm or 1–3 stones, CSD was as valid a predictor of preoperative stone burden as stone volume, so preoperative kidney-ureter-bladder (KUB) films may be sufficient.