Characterizing the Transmission Potential of Zoonotic Infections from Minor Outbreaks

The transmission potential of a novel infection depends on both the inherent transmissibility of a pathogen, and the level of susceptibility in the host population. However, distinguishing between these pathogen- and population-specific properties typically requires detailed serological studies, which are rarely available in the early stages of an outbreak. Using a simple transmission model that incorporates age-stratified social mixing patterns, we present a novel method for characterizing the transmission potential of subcritical infections, which have effective reproduction number R<1, from readily available data on the size of outbreaks. We show that the model can identify the extent to which outbreaks are driven by inherent pathogen transmissibility and pre-existing population immunity, and can generate unbiased estimates of the effective reproduction number. Applying the method to real-life infections, we obtained accurate estimates for the degree of age-specific immunity against monkeypox, influenza A(H5N1) and A(H7N9), and refined existing estimates of the reproduction number. Our results also suggest minimal pre-existing immunity to MERS-CoV in humans. The approach we describe can therefore provide crucial information about novel infections before serological surveys and other detailed analyses are available. The methods would also be applicable to data stratified by factors such as profession or location, which would make it possible to measure the transmission potential of emerging infections in a wide range of settings.     

Human monkeypox

Human monkeypox, occurring in the tropical rainforest of west and central Africa, is regarded as the most important orthopoxvirus infection for epidemiological surveillance during the post-smallpox era. This disease, first recognized in Za?re in 1970 resembles smallpox clinically but differs epidemiologically. Clinical features, their evolution and sequelae of monkeypox could be compared with discrete ordinary or modified type of smallpox. A case-fatality rate of 14% has been observed but some cases can be exceedingly mild or atypical and may easily remain undetected and unreported. Pronounced lymphadenopathy has been the only clinical feature found commonly in monkeypox but not in smallpox. Fifty-seven cases of human monkeypox have occurred since 1970, in the tropical rainforests in six west and central African countries, the majority of them (45) being reported from Za?re. The disease appears to be more frequent in dry season. Children below ten years of age comprise 84% of the cases. Smallpox vaccination protects against monkeypox. Clusters of cases have been observed in certain areas within countries and within affected households. Human-to-human spread has possibly occurred seven times. No cases of possible tertiary spread were observed. The secondary attack rate among susceptible close household contacts was 10%, among all susceptible contacts 5%. This is much lower than that occurring with smallpox, which is between 25-40%. The limited avidity of monkeypox virus for human beings indicates that monkeypox is probably a zoonosis, although the animal reservoir(s) have not yet been identified. The low transmissibility, resulting in low frequency of disease in man indicates that monkeypox is not a public health problem. Human monkeypox has been a relatively newly recognized disease. Studies are in progress to identify the natural cycle of monkeypox virus and to define better its clinical and epidemiological characteristics. Special surveillance is maintained in endemic areas with the aim to provide assurance that in spite of waning immunity of the human population following cessation of the smallpox vaccination, the disease does not constitute a potential danger to man.     

Multiple diagnostic techniques identify previously vaccinated individuals with protective immunity against monkeypox

Approximately 50% of the US population received smallpox vaccinations before routine immunization ceased in 1972 for civilians and in 1990 for military personnel. Several studies have shown long-term immunity after smallpox vaccination, but skepticism remains as to whether this will translate into full protection against the onset of orthopoxvirus-induced disease. The US monkeypox outbreak of 2003 provided the opportunity to examine this issue. Using independent and internally validated diagnostic approaches with >or=95% sensitivity and >or=90% specificity for detecting clinical monkeypox infection, we identified three previously unreported cases of monkeypox in preimmune individuals at 13, 29 and 48 years after smallpox vaccination. These individuals were unaware that they had been infected because they were spared any recognizable disease symptoms. Together, this shows that the US monkeypox outbreak was larger than previously realized and, more importantly, shows that cross-protective antiviral immunity against West African monkeypox can potentially be maintained for decades after smallpox vaccination.     

猴痘的流行现状及防控

猴痘(monkeypox)是由猴痘病毒感染所致的人兽共患病,主要发生在非洲中部、西部地区。猴痘病毒可感染多种哺乳类动物,主要在动物中流行,人接触感染动物后可被传染。猴痘的临床表现与天花相似(发热、皮疹等),但症状较轻。天花疫苗接种可提供预防猴痘的免疫保护力。然而,因全球天花被消灭而停止接种天花疫苗后,猴痘成为最可能威胁人类的正痘病毒性疾病。近期,其散发病例在欧洲多地出现。2022年5月7日英国报道了猴痘疫情。随后,欧洲报道猴痘确诊和疑似病例超过100例。猴痘主要传播途径包括接触感染动物、与患者直接接触或间接接触。2022年5月20日,世界卫生组织就此次猴痘疫情召开了紧急会议,旨在提高对猴痘的认识,做好防范应对准备。世界卫生组织、美国疾病预防控制中心、英国卫生部门报告了相关疫情并制定了相应的防控措施。截至2022年5月28日我国尚无输入性猴痘报道,但因国际交往频繁等仍须提高警惕。本文介绍了猴痘流行现状及有关防控信息,以供借鉴。     

Human monkey pox: its clinico-epidemiological characteristics

During the course of the smallpox eradication programme, a new eruptive disease clinically resembling smallpox was discovered in Zaire. The disease, which was named monkeypox after the virus, is a zoonosis occurring sporadically in countries of western and central Africa with tropical rain forest. The studies carried out in Zaire from 1980 through 1985 showed that monkeypox affects mainly children in relatively small remote villages whose population has traditionally frequent contacts with wild animals. Apart from the wildlife, the virus can be transmitted from man to man, but among other sources of infection sick persons did not exceed 20%. Presumed human transmission has occurred in 38 out of 61 outbreaks of human monkeypox and only once reached the third and once the fourth generation; the transmission in all affected villages under observation has extinguished itself. Considering the sporadic and relatively rare occurrence of the disease and expected complications following the immunization with vaccinia which protects from monkeypox, introduction of mass vaccination in the areas at risk is hardly justified at present.     

Contagiousness of monkey pox for humans: results of an investigation of 2 outbreaks of the infection in Zaire

The results of the investigation of two outbreaks of group monkeypox infection among humans (altogether 8 cases) in the zone of Bumba, Equatorial Province, Zaire, are presented. The primary source of infection in both outbreaks was not established, the outbreaks were supposedly caused by sick wild animals. Almost all persons affected by this infection were children aged 7 months to 7 years, never vaccinated against smallpox; the only exception was a 29-year old female patient, formerly vaccinated and revaccinated against smallpox. During one of the outbreaks the laboratory-confirmed transmission of infection from man to man was established in two generations. During the other outbreak there were grounds to suspect the transmission of infection in three generations, though the possibility of contacting infection from animals could not be completely ruled out. The existence of the inapparent form of monkeypox in humans was revealed.     

天花预防接种面临的挑战与DNA痘苗

介绍美国重新启动种痘的动因,LIR、A27L、A33R、B5R基因痘苗建立、修饰的Ankara痘苗和Lister基因缺失痘苗动物保护力、安全试验、临床研究现状及预防天花、人类猴痘的前景。     

An integral equation model for the control of a smallpox outbreak

An integral equation model of a smallpox epidemic is proposed. The model structures the incidence of infection among the household, the workplace, the wider community and a health-care facility; and incorporates a finite incubation period and plausible infectivity functions. Linearisation of the model is appropriate for small epidemics, and enables analytic expressions to be derived for the basic reproduction number and the size of the epidemic. The effects of control interventions (vaccination, isolation, quarantine and public education) are explored for a smallpox epidemic following an imported case. It is found that the rapid identification and isolation of cases, the quarantine of affected households and a public education campaign to reduce contact would be capable of bringing an epidemic under control. This could be used in conjunction with the vaccination of healthcare workers and contacts. Our results suggest that prior mass vaccination would be an inefficient method of containing an outbreak.     

Within-host evolution and virulence in microparasites

An important aspect of microparasite biology is the fact that infections are populations of thousands of microbes. As any population, infections are hence subject to two main types of changes: demographic and evolutionary. Here we analyse the consequences of within-host evolutionary changes. We build an epidemiological model where infections are regularly invaded by locally favored mutations affecting various infectious traits (virulence, transmissibility and clearance). Our results are the following. In durable infections, where within-host evolution is an important matter, a drop of transmissibility is only slightly deleterious to the infection, while a reduction of infection lifespan is very costly. In consequence, locally favored mutations reducing transmissibility reach a larger frequency, or even the complete fixation, and the suboptimality accumulated in infections owing to within-host evolution affects more their transmission than their duration. Conversely, taking an infection at random and observing the events of within-host evolution, one is more likely to observe reductions of infection length than reductions of transmissibility, because the mutations affecting transmissibility are often already present in infections. We then discuss the interpretation of these results in terms of deleterious mutations, and we also emphasize that the management of within-host evolution could be used as a novel therapeutic approach to the treatment of infection.     

Coadministration of Cidofovir and Smallpox Vaccine Reduced Vaccination Side Effects but Interfered with Vaccine-Elicited Immune Responses and Immunity to Monkeypox

While the smallpox vaccine, Dryvax or Dryvax-derived ACAM2000, holds potential for public immunization against the spread of smallpox by bioterror, there is serious concern about Dryvax-mediated side effects. Here, we report that a single-dose vaccination regimen comprised of Dryvax and an antiviral agent, cidofovir, could reduce vaccinia viral loads after vaccination and significantly control Dryvax vaccination side effects. However, coadministration of cidofovir and Dryvax also reduced vaccine-elicited immune responses of antibody and T effector cells despite the fact that the reduced priming could be boosted as a recall response after monkeypox virus challenge. Evaluations of four different aspects of vaccine efficacy showed that coadministration of cidofovir and Dryvax compromised the Dryvax-induced immunity against monkeypox, although the covaccinated monkeys exhibited measurable protection against monkeypox compared to that of naïve controls. Thus, the single-dose coadministration of cidofovir and Dryvax effectively controlled vaccination side effects but significantly compromised vaccine-elicited immune responses and vaccine-induced immunity to monkeypox.     

Experimental Infection of Cynomolgus Macaques (Macaca fascicularis) with Aerosolized Monkeypox Virus

Monkeypox virus (MPXV) infection in humans results in clinical symptoms very similar to ordinary smallpox. Aerosol is a route of secondary transmission for monkeypox, and a primary route of smallpox transmission in humans. Therefore, an animal model for aerosol exposure to MPXV is needed to test medical countermeasures. To characterize the pathogenesis in cynomolgus macaques (Macaca fascicularis), groups of macaques were exposed to four different doses of aerosolized MPXV. Blood was collected the day before, and every other day after exposure and assessed for complete blood count (CBC), clinical chemistry analysis, and quantitative PCR. Macaques showed mild anorexia, depression, and fever on day 6 post-exposure. Lymphadenopathy, which differentiates monkeypox from smallpox, was observed in exposed macaques around day 6 post-exposure. CBC and clinical chemistries showed abnormalities similar to human monkeypox cases. Whole blood and throat swab viral loads peaked around day 10, and in survivors, gradually decreased until day 28 post-exposure. Survival was not dose dependent. As such, doses of 4×10⁴ PFU, 1×10⁵ PFU, or 1×10⁶ PFU resulted in lethality for 70% of the animals, whereas a dose of 4×10⁵ PFU resulted in 85% lethality. Overall, cynomolgus macaques exposed to aerosolized MPXV develop a clinical disease that resembles that of human monkeypox. These findings provide a strong foundation for the use of aerosolized MPXV exposure of cynomolgus macaques as an animal model to test medical countermeasures against orthopoxviruses.     

An in-host model of acute infection: measles as a case study

The epidemiology of acute infections is strongly influenced by the immune status of individuals. In-host models can provide quantitative predictions of immune status and can thus offer valuable insights into the factors that influence transmission between individuals and the effectiveness of vaccination protocols with respect to individual immunity. Here we develop an in-host model of measles infection. The model explicitly considers the effects of immune system memory and CD8 T-cells, which are key to measles clearance. The model is used to determine the effects of waning immunity through vaccination and infection, the effects of booster exposures or vaccines on the level of immunity, and the immune system characteristics that result in measles transmission (R(0)>1) even if an individual has no apparent clinical symptoms. We find that the level of immune system CD8 T-cells at the time of exposure to measles determines whether an individual will experience a measles infection or simply a boost in immunity. We also find that the infected cell dynamics are a good indicator of measles transmission and the degree of symptoms that will be experienced. Our results indicate that the degree of immunity in adults is independent of the source of exposure in early childhood, be it vaccine or natural infection.     

Age-related model for estimating the symptomatic and asymptomatic transmissibility of COVID-19 patients

Estimation of age-dependent transmissibility of COVID-19 patients is critical for effective policymaking. Although the transmissibility of symptomatic cases has been extensively studied, asymptomatic infection is understudied due to limited data. Using a dataset with reliably distinguished symptomatic and asymptomatic statuses of COVID-19 cases, we propose an ordinary differential equation model that considers age-dependent transmissibility in transmission dynamics. Under a Bayesian framework, multi-source information is synthesized in our model for identifying transmissibility. A shrinkage prior among age groups is also adopted to improve the estimation behavior of transmissibility from age-structured data. The added values of accounting for age-dependent transmissibility are further evaluated through simulation studies. In real-data analysis, we compare our approach with two basic models using the deviance information criterion (DIC) and its extension. We find that the proposed model is more flexible for our epidemic data. Our results also suggest that the transmissibility of asymptomatic infections is significantly lower (on average, 76.45% with a credible interval (27.38%, 88.65%)) than that of symptomatic cases. In both symptomatic and asymptomatic patients, the transmissibility mainly increases with age. Patients older than 30 years are more likely to develop symptoms with higher transmissibility. We also find that the transmission burden of asymptomatic cases is lower than that of symptomatic patients.     

Social Contact Networks and Disease Eradicability under Voluntary Vaccination

Certain theories suggest that it should be difficult or impossible to eradicate a vaccine-preventable disease under voluntary vaccination: Herd immunity implies that the individual incentive to vaccinate disappears at high coverage levels. Historically, there have been examples of declining coverage for vaccines, such as MMR vaccine and whole-cell pertussis vaccine, that are consistent with this theory. On the other hand, smallpox was globally eradicated by 1980 despite voluntary vaccination policies in many jurisdictions. Previous modeling studies of the interplay between disease dynamics and individual vaccinating behavior have assumed that infection is transmitted in a homogeneously mixing population. By comparison, here we simulate transmission of a vaccine-preventable SEIR infection through a random, static contact network. Individuals choose whether to vaccinate based on infection risks from neighbors, and based on vaccine risks. When neighborhood size is small, rational vaccinating behavior results in rapid containment of the infection through voluntary ring vaccination. As neighborhood size increases (while the average force of infection is held constant), a threshold is reached beyond which the infection can break through partially vaccinated rings, percolating through the whole population and resulting in considerable epidemic final sizes and a large number vaccinated. The former outcome represents convergence between individually and socially optimal outcomes, whereas the latter represents their divergence, as observed in most models of individual vaccinating behavior that assume homogeneous mixing. Similar effects are observed in an extended model using smallpox-specific natural history and transmissibility assumptions. This work illustrates the significant qualitative differences between behavior–infection dynamics in discrete contact-structured populations versus continuous unstructured populations. This work also shows how disease eradicability in populations where voluntary vaccination is the primary control mechanism may depend partly on whether the disease is transmissible only to a few close social contacts or to a larger subset of the population.     

Tenth anniversary of smallpox eradication: Results of epidemiological and virological surveillance and studies in the post-eradication period

In accordance with recommendations of the Global Commission on the certification of smallpox eradication for the 10-year period after the eradication of this infection, all suspected cases of smallpox have been thoroughly checked up, and in none of them the diagnosis of smallpox has been confirmed. The study of monkeypox in humans has revealed that this zoonosis is spread over a wider area than supposed earlier and covers 7 countries of Equatorial Africa, occurring most frequently in Zaire. In about 70% of cases of monkeypox in human the disease is contracted from animals serving as natural virus carriers and in about one-third of such cases, from humans having monkeypox. The infectivity of humans with monkeypox for persons having close contacts with them is somewhat lower (12.3%) than in smallpox when this characteristic varies from 37% to 88%. Monkeypox in humans may take an asymptomatic course. Some species of tropical squirrels serve as natural virus carriers. These investigations have also resulted in essential corrections being made in understanding the ecology of cowpox virus, another orthopoxvirus pathogenic for man. At least 5 species of rodents have proved to be of interest as natural carriers of cowpox virus.     

Proteomic basis of the antibody response to monkeypox virus infection examined in cynomolgus macaques and a comparison to human smallpox vaccination

Monkeypox is a zoonotic viral disease that occurs primarily in Central and West Africa. A recent outbreak in the United States heightened public health concerns for susceptible human populations. Vaccinating with vaccinia virus to prevent smallpox is also effective for monkeypox due to a high degree of sequence conservation. Yet, the identity of antigens within the monkeypox virus proteome contributing to immune responses has not been described in detail. We compared antibody responses to monkeypox virus infection and human smallpox vaccination by using a protein microarray covering 92-95% (166-192 proteins) of representative proteomes from monkeypox viral clades of Central and West Africa, including 92% coverage (250 proteins) of the vaccinia virus proteome as a reference orthopox vaccine. All viral gene clones were verified by sequencing and purified recombinant proteins were used to construct the microarray. Serum IgG of cynomolgus macaques that recovered from monkeypox recognized at least 23 separate proteins within the orthopox proteome, while only 14 of these proteins were recognized by IgG from vaccinated humans. There were 12 of 14 antigens detected by sera of human vaccinees that were also recognized by IgG from convalescent macaques. The greatest level of IgG binding for macaques occurred with the structural proteins F13L and A33R, and the membrane scaffold protein D13L. Significant IgM responses directed towards A44R, F13L and A33R of monkeypox virus were detected before onset of clinical symptoms in macaques. Thus, antibodies from vaccination recognized a small number of proteins shared with pathogenic virus strains, while recovery from infection also involved humoral responses to antigens uniquely recognized within the monkeypox virus proteome.     

Effectiveness of realistic vaccination strategies for contact networks of various degree distributions

A "contact network" that models infection transmission comprises nodes (or individuals) that are linked when they are in contact and can potentially transmit an infection. Through analysis and simulation, we studied the influence of the distribution of the number of contacts per node, defined as degree, on infection spreading and its control by vaccination. Three random contact networks of various degree distributions were examined. In a scale-free network, the frequency of high-degree nodes decreases as the power of the degree (the case of the third power is studied here); the decrease is exponential in an exponential network, whereas all nodes have the same degree in a constant network. Aiming for containment at a very early stage of an epidemic, we measured the sustainability of a specific network under a vaccination strategy by employing the critical transmissibility larger than which the epidemic would occur. We examined three vaccination strategies: mass, ring, and acquaintance. Irrespective of the networks, mass preventive vaccination increased the critical transmissibility inversely proportional to the unvaccinated rate of the population. Ring post-outbreak vaccination increased the critical transmissibility inversely proportional to the unvaccinated rate, which is the rate confined to the targeted ring comprising the neighbors of an infected node; however, the total number of vaccinated nodes could mostly be fewer than 100 nodes at the critical transmissibility. In combination, mass and ring vaccinations decreased the pathogen's "effective" transmissibility each by the factor of the unvaccinated rate. The amount of vaccination used in acquaintance preventive vaccination was lesser than the mass vaccination, particularly under a highly heterogeneous degree distribution; however, it was not as less as that used in ring vaccination. Consequently, our results yielded a quantitative assessment of the amount of vaccination necessary for infection containment, which is universally applicable to contact networks of various degree distributions.     

Epidemiological impact of vaccination on the dynamics of two childhood diseases in rural Senegal

Measles and pertussis are ubiquitous vaccine-preventable diseases, which remain an important public health problem in developing countries. Hence, developing a deep understanding of their transmission dynamics remains imperative. To achieve this, we compared the impact of vaccination at both individual and population levels in a Senegalese rural community. This study represents the first such comparative study in tropical conditions and constitutes a point of comparison with other studies of disease dynamics in developed countries. Changes in the transmission rates of infections are reflected in their mean ages at infection and basic reproductive ratio calculated before and after vaccination. We explored persistence of both infections in relation to population size in each village and found the inter-epidemic period for the whole area using wavelets analysis. As predicted by epidemiological theory, we observed an increase in the mean age at infection and a decrease in the reproductive ratio of both diseases. We showed for both the pre- vaccination and vaccine eras that persistence depends on population size. After vaccination, persistence decreased and the inter-epidemic period increased. The observed changes suggest that vaccination against measles and pertussis induced a drop in their transmission. Similarities in disease dynamics to those of temperate regions such as England and Wales were also observed.     

The changing epidemiology of human monkeypox—A potential threat? A systematic review

Monkeypox, a zoonotic disease caused by an orthopoxvirus, results in a smallpox-like disease in humans. Since monkeypox in humans was initially diagnosed in 1970 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), it has spread to other regions of Africa (primarily West and Central), and cases outside Africa have emerged in recent years. We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed and grey literature on how monkeypox epidemiology has evolved, with particular emphasis on the number of confirmed, probable, and/or possible cases, age at presentation, mortality, and geographical spread. The review is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020208269). We identified 48 peer-reviewed articles and 18 grey literature sources for data extraction. The number of human monkeypox cases has been on the rise since the 1970s, with the most dramatic increases occurring in the DRC. The median age at presentation has increased from 4 (1970s) to 21 years (2010–2019). There was an overall case fatality rate of 8.7%, with a significant difference between clades—Central African 10.6% (95% CI: 8.4%– 13.3%) vs. West African 3.6% (95% CI: 1.7%– 6.8%). Since 2003, import- and travel-related spread outside of Africa has occasionally resulted in outbreaks. Interactions/activities with infected animals or individuals are risk behaviors associated with acquiring monkeypox. Our review shows an escalation of monkeypox cases, especially in the highly endemic DRC, a spread to other countries, and a growing median age from young children to young adults. These findings may be related to the cessation of smallpox vaccination, which provided some cross-protection against monkeypox, leading to increased human-to-human transmission. The appearance of outbreaks beyond Africa highlights the global relevance of the disease. Increased surveillance and detection of monkeypox cases are essential tools for understanding the continuously changing epidemiology of this resurging disease.