A Catastrophe Model for Water Bloom Prediction: A Case Study of China's Lake Chaohu

Using a case study of Lake Chaohu, the fifth largest lake in China, we constructed a cusp model for water bloom prediction that used TP (total phosphorus), T (temperature), Chla (chlorophyll-a), and DO (dissolved oxygen). These four parameters were assumed to be the most important factors in eutrophication and water bloom of the lake. The model was found to be accurate, because its relative error was around 10%. What is more convincing, according to the catastrophe discriminant of the cusp model, it could be judged that a discontinuous jump of the aquatic ecosystem occurred in July 2004, in Lake Chaohu. This conclusion is consistent with the fact that water blooms arose in August 2004. The cusp model also showed satisfactory precision when applied to forecast the eutrophication trend and prediction of water bloom in Lake Chaohu in 2005. The case study found that water bloom brought on by eutrophication can be fit and predicted by a catastrophe model. We suggest that catastrophe models would be a constructive approach to forecast and judge the outbreak of water bloom in lakes. In addition, by constructing and studying such catastrophe models, lake managers would be able to simulate the effects of different protection and mitigation projects and enrich the scientific basis for the optimization of these projects as well.     

Will an increased greenhouse impact in Fennoscandia give rise to more humic and coloured lakes?

A large-scale increase in the discharge of humic material in rivers, as well as a darkening of Swedish lakes during the last 15 years, are illustrated and discussed. Increased precipitation was responsible for the greatest changes, but a marked part (10–40%) of the increase in river transport of coloured material was independent of discharge. Possible explanations for this increase may be: increased ground water level leading to increased runoff in superficial soil levels, a flow in direct contact with the organic soils; humus fractions in these layers may also be rich in iron resulting in more coloured water; increased primary production giving rise to increased amounts of litter and humic material; reduced capacity of soils to absorb organic matter because of acidification; and effects of modern forest management. Models of global climate predict a doubling of atmospheric-CO₂, an increase in mean annual temperature of up to 1.5 to 4.5 °C, and in Fennoscandia possibly an increase in precipitation. The factors responsible for the observed large-scale change in humus flux may be strengthened by the increasing greenhouse impacts, and may result in more humic and coloured lakes in Fennoscandia during the next century.     

Colour cues proved to be more informative for dogs than brightness

The results of early studies on colour vision in dogs led to the conclusion that chromatic cues are unimportant for dogs during their normal activities. Nevertheless, the canine retina possesses two cone types which provide at least the potential for colour vision. Recently, experiments controlling for the brightness information in visual stimuli demonstrated that dogs have the ability to perform chromatic discrimination. Here, we show that for eight previously untrained dogs colour proved to be more informative than brightness when choosing between visual stimuli differing both in brightness and chromaticity. Although brightness could have been used by the dogs in our experiments (unlike previous studies), it was not. Our results demonstrate that under natural photopic lighting conditions colour information may be predominant even for animals that possess only two spectral types of cone photoreceptors.     

红湖水质对模型动物致突变性的研究

目的:以微核技术及精子畸变率为指示,探讨新疆大学红湖水质对模型动物致突变性作用。方法:采用小鼠嗜多染红细胞(PCE)微核率(MCN)及精子畸变率检测方法,研究红湖水质及其潜在的致突变性。结果:3个水样点的污水都能引起小白鼠嗜多染红细胞及精子细胞不同程度的遗传毒性。与对照组(自来水)喂养的小白鼠相比具有明显的差异(P<0.005)。结论:红湖水质已经被严重污染,对人体及动物具有潜在的危害。     

磷模型在千岛湖水体污染预测中的应用研究

运用国际上通用的多个经验统计磷模型预测千岛湖目前的磷浓度水平,其中第6个模型最适合用于千岛湖的预测预报．利用该模型预测了磷负荷量分别减少1/4、1/2、3/4情况下,千岛湖水体中总磷浓度的响应．同时针对千岛湖营养水平控制的短、长期目标,利用模型计算出了所允许的总磷负荷量及入湖磷浓度．     

Aquatic vegetation and largemouth bass population responses to water-level variations in Lake Okeechobee,Florida (USA)

A five-year study examined the responses of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), emergent vegetation, and largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) to variations in water level in a large lake in Florida, USA. SAV was assessed using a combined transect survey/spatial mapping approach, emergent vegetation was quantified with aerial photography and GIS, and bass were surveyed by electro-shocking. During the period leading up to this study (1995–1999), water levels were high in the lake, and the SAV was reduced in spatial extent and biomass, compared to its condition in the early 1990s. Spatial extent of emergent vegetation also was low, and largemouth bass surveys indicated low densities and failure to recruit young fish into the population. This was attributed to the lack of critical vegetative habitat. In spring 2000, the lake was lowered by discharging water from major outlets, and this was followed by a regional drought. Water levels dropped by 1m, and there was widespread development of Chara lawns in shoreline areas, with coincident increases in water clarity. There was some germination of vascular SAV, but Chara was the extreme dominant, such that structural complexity remained low. There was no substantive improvement in bass recruitment. During 2001, water levels declined further, and emergent plants germinated in exposed areas of the lake bottom. SAV was restricted to sites farther offshore, and continued to be dominated by Chara. There again was no bass response. In 2002, conditions changed when water levels increased to a moderate depth, flooding shoreline habitat to 0.5m. Vascular SAV increased in biomass and spatial extent, such that the community developed a high structural complexity. At the same time, emergent aquatic plants developed dense stands along the western shoreline. Largemouth bass had a strong recruitment of young fish for the first time in 5years. Recruitment continued to be successful in 2003, when spatial extent of SAV was somewhat reduced by higher water but total biomass and diversity remained high. These results demonstrate an important effect of inter-annual variation in water depth on the population dynamics of aquatic plants and fish in a subtropical lake.     

Seasonal water quality of shallow and eutrophic Lake Pamvotis, Greece: implications for restoration

Lake Pamvotis is a moderately sized (22 km²) shallow (z _avg=4 m) lake with a polymictic stratification regime located in northwest Greece. The lake has undergone cultural eutrophication over the past 40 years and is currently eutrophic (annual averages of FRP=0.07 mg P l^-1, TP=0.11 mg P l^-1, NH₄ ⁺=0.25 mg N l^-1, NO₃ ^–=0.56 mg N l^-1). FRP and NH₄ ⁺ levels are correlated to external loading from streams during the winter and spring, and to internal loading during multi-day periods of summer stratification. Algal blooms occurred in summer (July–August green algae, August–September blue-green algae), autumn (October blue-green algae and diatoms), and winter (February diatoms), but not in the spring (March–June). The phytoplankton underwent brief periods of N- and P-limitation, though persistent low transparency (secchi depth of 60–80 cm) also suggests periods of light limitation. Rotifers counts were highest from mid-summer to early autumn whereas copepods were high in the spring and cladocerans were low in the summer. Removal of industrial and sewage point sources a decade ago resulted in a decrease in FRP. A phosphorus mass balance identified further reductions in external loading from the predominately agricultural catchment will decrease FRP levels further. The commercial fishery and lake hatchery also provides opportunities to control algal biomass through biomanipulation measures.     

Precursors of carcinogenic N-nitroso compounds in Lake Peipsi

The concentration of precursors of carcinogenic N-nitroso compounds, nitrates and nitrites as well as ammonia, in the surface water of Lake Peipsi and its tributaries has been determined during the period 1985–1988. The nitrate and nitrite content was also analysed in bottom sediments and fish from the lake.The nitrate concentration in the water of Lake Peipsi varied from 0.01 to 2.33 mg NO₃&z.sbnd;N l^–1, the average value from 0.27 to 1.60 mg NO₃&z.sbnd;N l^–1, with the lowest concentrations in summer. The variations may be caused by different pollution loads, meteorological conditions, and assimilation of nitrates by plants and algae.The nitrate content in the water of rivers was on an average somewhat higher in comparison with its concentrations in the lake. The concentrations of nitrites were, as a rule, about an order of magnitude lower than those of nitrates. The amount of ammonia varied from 0.15 to 0.36 mg NH₄&z.sbnd;N l^–1.At present the concentrations of the studied nitrogen compounds are not essential and do not prevent from using the lake for recreation and drinking water supply.     

Calcite Precipitation in Hard Water Lakes in Calculation and Experiment

Calcite precipitation in model solutions and natural waters depends on the magnitude of saturation (saturation index ≫ 1). Continuous lye addition should simulate the CO₂ decrease through assimilation by algae and the experiments can be applied to the autochthonic calcite precipitation in lakes. It seems possible to restore lakes with artificial calcite precipitation. Basic data for this experiment are given in this paper.     

Lake districts of north‐western Russia: identification of subregions based on analyses of hydrologic data

1. There are more than 400 000 lakes in the north‐western part of European Russia. Data from 50 gauging stations (located on lakes with water surface area ≤ 400 km²), within the region, was used to identify regions that exhibit common hydrologic patterns. 2. Analyses of common hydrologic patterns permitted the division of the overall area into four regions within which lakes exhibit common hydrologic and limnologic features.     

Cascading Trophic Interactions in an Oligotrophic Species-poor Alpine Lake

Non-native brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) were eradicated from alpine Bighorn Lake, Alberta, Canada, to test whether strong cascading trophic interactions (CTI) can occur in oligotrophic, high seston C:P, species-poor lakes. Fishless alpine Pipit Lake was used as a reference ecosystem. Bighorn Lake zooplankton biomass increased from 0.14:1 relative to Pipit Lake before fish removal began in 1997 to 0.6:1 afterwards due to an increase in the abundance of adult cyclopoid copepods beginning in 1997 and the reappearance of Daphnia middendorffiana in 1998. Following the reappearance of Daphnia, Bighorn Lake total phytoplankton biomass fell from 64:1 relative to Pipit Lake to 0.9:1. Over the same periods Bighorn Lake:Pipit Lake chlorophyll-a ratios declined from 2.4:1 to 1.6:1, although the decrease was not statistically significant. Mid-summer Secchi disc depth in Bighorn Lake increased from 3.1 m before manipulation to 9.2 m, the maximum depth of the lake, in 2001 and 2002. Increased transparency was most likely due to increased filtration of suspended inorganic particles from the water column by higher abundances of large zooplankton. Post-manipulation increases in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), DIN:total dissolved phosphorus (TDP) ratio and declines in TDP in Bighorn Lake were not attributable to ecosystem manipulation, similar changes were observed in reference Pipit Lake. We conclude that strong pelagic CTI, expressed as change in total phytoplankton biomass and largely mediated by Daphnia, can occur in oligotrophic, high seston C:P, species-poor ecosystems. However, strong CTI responses in phytoplankton biomass may lag trophic manipulation by several years.     

A Probabilistic Model to Predict Clinical Phenotypic Traits from Genome Sequencing

Genetic screening is becoming possible on an unprecedented scale. However, its utility remains controversial. Although most variant genotypes cannot be easily interpreted, many individuals nevertheless attempt to interpret their genetic information. Initiatives such as the Personal Genome Project (PGP) and Illumina''s Understand Your Genome are sequencing thousands of adults, collecting phenotypic information and developing computational pipelines to identify the most important variant genotypes harbored by each individual. These pipelines consider database and allele frequency annotations and bioinformatics classifications. We propose that the next step will be to integrate these different sources of information to estimate the probability that a given individual has specific phenotypes of clinical interest. To this end, we have designed a Bayesian probabilistic model to predict the probability of dichotomous phenotypes. When applied to a cohort from PGP, predictions of Gilbert syndrome, Graves'' disease, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and various blood groups were accurate, as individuals manifesting the phenotype in question exhibited the highest, or among the highest, predicted probabilities. Thirty-eight PGP phenotypes (26%) were predicted with area-under-the-ROC curve (AUC)>0.7, and 23 (15.8%) of these were statistically significant, based on permutation tests. Moreover, in a Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) blinded prediction experiment, the models were used to match 77 PGP genomes to phenotypic profiles, generating the most accurate prediction of 16 submissions, according to an independent assessor. Although the models are currently insufficiently accurate for diagnostic utility, we expect their performance to improve with growth of publicly available genomics data and model refinement by domain experts.     

Spatial and temporal patterns of light attenuation among lakes of the Mackenzie Delta

SUMMARY 1. The seasonal dynamics of light attenuation, and the relative roles of total suspended solids (TSS), dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and chlorophyll as light attenuators among two sets of lakes in the Mackenzie Delta, were assessed during the open‐water periods of 1998 and 1999. 2. The first set consisted of 40 spatially discrete lakes where the frequency of flooding with river water was controlled by sill height (‘sill‐set lakes’). The second set consisted of a chain of six lakes connected to a main river channel (frequently flooded, all with same frequency), but where riverine influence was controlled by the distance from the channel connection point (‘chain‐set lakes’). 3. As the flooding frequency of lakes decreased (sill‐set), and as the distance from the channel connection point increased (chain‐set), lake water became increasingly transparent and the stability (decreasing temporal variability) of underwater light increased. 4. The effect of flooding on transparency was greater in years with a high minimum summer water level. However, the effect of river flooding on lake water transparency was damped more by an increase in the frequency and duration of flooding than by an increase in distance from the channel connection point. 5. The index of scattering was linearly related to TSS over the common range of concentrations in both sets of lakes. The specific attenuation coefficient for TSS (and scattering) increased substantially from the most turbid to the most transparent waters. 6. During the summer, DOC provided an approximate index of water colour in the sill‐set lakes but not in the chain‐set lakes, where the gradient of DOC ran counter to the gradient of water colour. The specific attenuation coefficient for water colour was roughly constant among both sets of lakes. 7. Calculations of partial attenuation show that, during the spring flood peak, TSS is the dominant attenuator among most lakes, other than those with high sills or positioned far from channel connection points. During the lengthy summer period of open water, however, water colour appeared to be the most important light attenuator among almost all of the lakes in the central delta, with chlorophyll a of only minor importance. 8. Lakes of the Mackenzie Delta may be quite sensitive to changes in climate and ultraviolet‐b (UV‐b) radiation in the circumpolar arctic because of the role of DOC as an attenuator of photosynthetically active radiation and UV‐b irradiance and as an energy source for microbial foodwebs in this system.     

A Simple and Accurate Model to Predict Responses to Multi-electrode Stimulation in the Retina

Implantable electrode arrays are widely used in therapeutic stimulation of the nervous system (e.g. cochlear, retinal, and cortical implants). Currently, most neural prostheses use serial stimulation (i.e. one electrode at a time) despite this severely limiting the repertoire of stimuli that can be applied. Methods to reliably predict the outcome of multi-electrode stimulation have not been available. Here, we demonstrate that a linear-nonlinear model accurately predicts neural responses to arbitrary patterns of stimulation using in vitro recordings from single retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) stimulated with a subretinal multi-electrode array. In the model, the stimulus is projected onto a low-dimensional subspace and then undergoes a nonlinear transformation to produce an estimate of spiking probability. The low-dimensional subspace is estimated using principal components analysis, which gives the neuron’s electrical receptive field (ERF), i.e. the electrodes to which the neuron is most sensitive. Our model suggests that stimulation proportional to the ERF yields a higher efficacy given a fixed amount of power when compared to equal amplitude stimulation on up to three electrodes. We find that the model captures the responses of all the cells recorded in the study, suggesting that it will generalize to most cell types in the retina. The model is computationally efficient to evaluate and, therefore, appropriate for future real-time applications including stimulation strategies that make use of recorded neural activity to improve the stimulation strategy.     

初生根伸长对环境响应的数学模型

在根组织细胞分裂和细胞体积增大亚过程基础上,建立了一个综合根生长特征参数和环境影响在内的单根伸长的数学模型,同时实验观测了大豆根在不同的环境水势下的生长过程。模型计算结果与实验结果吻合较好。最后利用模型探讨了根伸长对环境因子变化的响应,以及根内水势分布。     

An Interatomic Potential Model for H2O: Applications to Water and Ice Polymorphs

Abstract

A new interatomic potential model for H₂O which consists of 2-body central (O-H, O-O and H-H) and 3-body teams and does not contain artificial constraints on the motions of oxygen and hydrogen atoms is proposed. The interatomic potential function parameters were determined empirically so as to reproduce the fundamental and essential features of water and ice Ih using molecular dynamics (MD) methods.

We carried out the MD simulations of water, and find the Ice Ih, Ice II and Ice IX using this potential model, in structures and physical properties are in agreement with the experimental results except for the compressibilities of both water and ice Ih. We expect that, by refining this model, we can apply this model to problems involving the reaction of water molecules with other components.     

Predicted warming and browning affect timing and magnitude of plankton phenological events in lakes: a mesocosm study

1. Aquatic ecosystems in Northern Europe are expected to face increases in temperature and water colour (TB) in future. While effects of these factors have been studied separately, it is unknown whether and how a combination of them might affect phenological events and trophic interactions. 2. In a mesocosm study, we combined both factors to create conditions expected to arise during the coming century. We focused on quantifying effects on timing and magnitude of plankton spring phenological events and identifying possible mismatches between resources (phytoplankton) and consumers (zooplankton). 3. We found that the increases in TB had important effects on timing and abundance of different plankton groups. While increased temperature led to an earlier peak in phytoplankton and zooplankton and a change in the relative timing of different zooplankton groups, increased water colour reduced chlorophyll‐a concentrations. 4. Increased TB together benefitted cladocerans and calanoid copepods and led to stronger top‐down control of algae by zooplankton. There was no sign of a mismatch between primary producers and grazers as reported from other studies. 5. Our results point towards an earlier onset of plankton spring growth in shallow lakes in future with a stronger top‐down control of phytoplankton by zooplankton grazers.     

A Simplified Geometric Model to Predict Nasal Spray Deposition in Children and Adults

A mathematical approach was developed to estimate spray deposition patterns in the nasal cavity based on the geometric relationships between the emitted spray plume and the anatomical dimensions of the nasal valve region of the nasal cavity. Spray plumes were assumed to be spherical cones and the nasal valve region was approximated as an ellipse. The effect of spray plume angle (15–85°) on the fraction of the spray able to pass through the nasal valve (deposition fraction) was tested for a variety of nasal valve (ellipse) shapes and cross-sectional areas based on measured dimensions from pediatric and adult nasal cavities. The effect of the distances between the tip of the nasal spray device and the nasal valve (0.2–1.9 cm) on the deposition fraction was also tested. Simulation results show that (1) decreasing spray plume angles resulted in higher deposition fractions, (2) deposition fraction was inversely proportional to the spray distance and the nasal valve (ellipse) major/minor axis ratio, and (3) for fixed major/minor axis ratios, improved deposition occurred with larger nasal valve cross-sectional areas. For a typical adult nasal valve, plume angles of less than 40° emitted from a distance of 1 cm resulted depositions greater than 90% within the main nasal cavity, whereas for a 12-year-old child, only the most narrow plume angles (<?20°) administered resulted in significant deposition beyond the nasal valve.     

Rotifer occurrence in relation to water colour

Information on the distribution of 223 species of planktic, periphytic and benthic rotifers from diverse waters in south and central Sweden was analyzed to reveal their relationships to the content of humolimnic substances, measured as mg Pt/l. Most rotifers have a very wide tolerance range against this factor. The majority of the planktic species prefer a low content of humolimnic substances, and the non-planktic rotifers mainly occurring in brown-coloured water show, in addition, a preference for low pH. No connection with trophic degree could be traced.     

A Generic Shallow Lake Ecosystem Model Based on Collective Expert Knowledge

We used fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to develop a generic shallow lake ecosystem model by augmenting the individual cognitive maps drawn by 8 scientists working in the area of shallow lake ecology. We calculated graph theoretical indices of the individual cognitive maps and the collective cognitive map produced by augmentation. There were a total of 32 variables with 113 connections in the collective cognitive map. The graph theoretical indices revealed internal cycles showing non-linear dynamics in the shallow lake ecosystem. The ecological processes were organized democratically without a top-down hierarchical structure. The most central variable in the collective map was submerged plants. The strongest connections were suspended solids concentration decreasing water clarity, phosphorus concentration increasing the phytoplankton biomass, higher water clarity increasing submerged plants, benthivorous fish biomass reducing submerged plants and increasing suspended solids concentration, and submerged plants decreasing suspended solids. The steady state condition of the generic model was a characteristic turbid shallow lake ecosystem. The generic shallow lake ecosystem model had the tendency to go into a turbid state since there were no dynamic environmental changes that could cause shifts between a turbid and a clearwater state, and the generic model indicated that only a dynamic disturbance regime could maintain the clearwater state. The model developed herein captured the empirical behavior of shallow lakes, and contained the basic model of the Alternative Stable States Theory. In addition, our model expanded the basic model by quantifying the relative effects of connections and by extending it with 22 more variables and 99 more weighted causal connections. Using our expanded model we ran 4 simulations: harvesting submerged plants, nutrient reduction, fish removal without nutrient reduction, and biomanipulation. Only biomanipulation, which included fish removal and nutrient reduction, had the potential to shift the turbid state into clearwater state. The structure and relationships in the generic model as well as the outcomes of the management simulations were supported by actual field studies in shallow lake ecosystems. Thus, fuzzy cognitive mapping methodology enabled us to understand the complex structure of shallow lake ecosystems as a whole and obtain a valid generic model based on tacit knowledge of experts in the field.