Land use for animal production in global change studies: Defining and characterizing a framework

Land use for animal production influences the earth system in a variety of ways, including local‐scale modification to biodiversity, soils, and nutrient cycling; regional changes in albedo and hydrology; and global‐scale changes in greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations. Pasture is furthermore the single most extensive form of land cover, currently comprising about 22–26% of the earth's ice‐free land surface. Despite the importance and variable expressions of animal production, distinctions among different systems are effectively absent from studies of land use and land cover change. This deficiency is improving; however, livestock production system classifications are rarely applied in this context, and the most popular global land cover inventories still present only a single, usually poorly defined category of “pasture” or “rangeland” with no characterization of land use. There is a marked lack of bottom‐up, evidence‐based methodology, creating a pressing need to incorporate cross‐disciplinary evidence of past and present animal production systems into global change studies. Here, we present a framework, modified from existing livestock production systems, that is rooted in sociocultural, socioeconomic, and ecological contexts. The framework defines and characterizes the range of land usage pertaining to animal production, and is suitable for application in land use inventories and scenarios, land cover modeling, and studies on sustainable land use in the past, present, and future.     

CLUENaban—A land use change model combining social factors with physical landscape factors for a mountainous area in Southwest China

Land use modelling has used rural areas as object for a long time. Modellers start in general with physical landscape factors to determine the spatial distribution of land use, especially agricultural crops. An important factor defining rural areas is the dominance of livelihoods/economies based on agriculture combined with a strong relationship to tradition, high value of family ties, scales of social aggregation, and a framework given by nature. The inter-linkages among economic, social and environmental components determine both the complexity and dynamics of rural development. Both modellers and social scientists seek a better understanding of these complex rural systems in terms of their development paths, the underlying forces and the interactions between physical land use and rural society. In this paper, we use a combination of a land use change model and information about social relationship by referring both to the common spatial unit of villages for a rural region in south west China. We want to show how such a common unit can help to include social science information into a physically oriented land use model. The inclusion of social data results in a substantial improvement of the modelling results. In the model run we could show that land use patterns in the study area were closely related to socio-economic characteristics and governmental rules. In China, collective land and state land are distinguished. This land designation turned out to be the most important factor for the land use types rainfed, irrigated land, and rubber. All land use types were influenced by the ethnicity of village inhabitants because they had different land use traditions.     

Long-term land-cover changes in the Belgian Ardennes (1775–1929): model-based reconstruction vs. historical maps

Understanding long‐term human‐environment interactions requires historical reconstruction of past land‐cover changes. The objective of this study is to reconstruct past land‐use and land‐cover changes in a rural municipality of the Belgian Ardennes over the last 250 years. Two approaches were compared. The first approach produced backward projections based on a mechanistic model which computes the demand for different land uses under the assumption of an equilibrium between the production and consumption of resources. The second approach involved using a series of historical maps to extract directly land‐use areas. A stochastic Markov chain model was also used to project backward missing land‐cover data in the time series. The consistency between the results obtained with the different approaches suggests that land‐use area can be successfully reconstructed on the basis of the mechanistic model, under conditions of a subsistence farming system and a closed economy. Land‐use/cover changes in the Belgian Ardennes from 1775 to 1929 were more driven by the interventionist measures of the Belgian government and by technological progress than by the ‘pressure’ of the growing population and livestock. Thanks to agricultural intensification, a decrease in land under human use was supporting increasing human and livestock populations from 1846 to 1880. Reforestation has accelerated since the mid‐19th century. This case study illustrates the highly dynamic and non‐linear character of land‐use change trajectories over long time periods and their strong interactions with the history of societies.     

Effects of urbanization and industrialization on agricultural land use in Shandong Peninsula of China

China is the most populated country in the world with slightly more than half of the population is still living in rural areas. In the past couple of decades, rapid urbanization and industrialization have significantly changed the land use/land cover (LULC) pattern in rural areas, particularly those around the big cities in eastern China. Shandong Peninsula, a traditional agriculture area, also has witnessed rapid urbanization and industrialization. Analysis of land use/land cover change in this area, specially the change of agricultural lands, would help us better understand the interaction between government's policies and farmers’ economic interests.This paper developed a method to extract single-cropping land, double-cropping land and other land use/land cover categories for 1978, 1999 and 2006 from seasonal variations in Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) during a crop calendar year. Spatial analysis results indicated significant changes of arable lands and other land use/land cover categories due to the urbanization and industrialization. The most possible reason is due to the continuous adjustment of government's policies and shift of farmer's economic interests. Results from this study would help government make wise decisions in the near future to mitigate urban sprawl and industrial development while maintain enough agricultural production.     

东南诸河流域1990-2015年土地利用时空变化特征及驱动机制

土地利用/覆被变化作为影响全球环境变化的重要因素,是人类活动最直接的反映,其驱动力分析能够很好地揭示人类活动对土地资源的影响机制。运用ArcGIS空间分析和SPSS主成分分析等方法,从整个东南诸河流域片区的尺度上,研究了包含中国台湾地区在内的1990—2015年间的土地利用时空变化特征,并探究其主要驱动机制。研究结果为:(1)全流域各土地类型面积占比为:林地耕地草地城乡建设用地水域未利用土地,林地与耕地的空间分布特征均为"北聚南散,北多南少",城乡建设用地集中分布在经济较为发达的台湾海峡两岸沿海地区以及流域大陆北部靠近长江三角洲的地区。(2)全流域土地类型的面积变化量为:城乡建设用地耕地草地林地水域未利用土地。流域土地利用综合动态度为0.68%,整体用地类型转化程度先降低再增加,并以城乡建设用地和耕地为主要变化类型。流域南部各市的土地利用变化较北部剧烈,台湾地区主要土地利用变化类型为耕地和城乡建设用地。(3)大陆地区城乡建设用地变化的主要驱动力为人口数量及结构、城市化和社会经济发展,台湾地区在此基础上增加了社会工农产业结构调整因素。大陆耕地变化的主要驱动力为人口数量及结构、城市化水平和社会工农产业结构,社会工农产业结构和农业生产水平是台湾地区耕地变化的主要驱动力。本研究为东南诸河流域土地资源规划管理提供科学依据,为自然流域尺度的土地利用变化及其驱动机制研究提供可靠实例。     

南滚河流域土地利用变化对亚洲象生境的影响

土地利用变化对亚洲象生境影响显著,明晰其影响机制是有效保护亚洲象的前提。为探明土地利用变化对亚洲象生境影响的时空过程及机制,以亚洲象残存的中-缅跨境流域-南滚河流域为例,在1988和2018年两期Landsat土地利用/土地覆被遥感分类图的基础上,采用LandTrendr算法检测30年间流域土地利用变化引起的天然林扰动,结合生态位因子分析（ENFA）模型评定的亚洲象生境适宜性分布,探究以天然林扰动为主的土地利用变化对亚洲象生境的影响。结果表明：（1）1988-2018年间,南滚河流域土地利用变化主要为天然林转化为其他地类,且天然林扰动强度在中、缅境内差异明显;（2）以橡胶种植扩张导致毁林为主的土地利用变化造成南滚河流域亚洲象生境萎缩,生境斑块间连通性降低,破碎化程度较高;（3）该流域亚洲象生境丧失过程表现为由边缘向内部逐渐被蚕食,适宜生境最终被分割为上、下游两个相互孤立的子区域。因此,抑制以橡胶林为主的热作种植扩张,恢复上、下游生境连通性,建立流域尺度的跨境保护区,是实现南滚河流域亚洲象种群保护和缓解人象冲突的重要途径。     

发展NECT土地覆盖特征数据集的原理、方法和应用

着重探讨了建立中国东北样带 (NortheastChinatransect, NECT) 土地覆盖特征数据集的原理、方法及其在全球变化研究方面的重要应用。NECT土地覆盖特征数据集是以多时相的 1km分辨率的NOAA/AVHRR归一化植被指数NDVI (Normalizeddifferencevegetationindex) 数字影像为基础, 同时采用高程、气候、土壤、植被、土地利用、土地资源、生态区域、行政边界、经济、社会等多源数据作为数据源, 并经过标准化处理 (如数字化、空间插值、几何配准、投影转换 ) 集成而成。在土地覆盖特征数据集的主要应用方面, 如 :1) 利用多时相、1km分辨率的NOAA/AVHRR影像完成了中国东北样带土地覆盖分类图。一级分类系统包括森林、草原、荒漠和沙地、灌丛、农田、混合覆盖 类型、城镇和水体等 8类, 二级分类体系包括 12类。经过地面采样进行精度检验, 分类精度达到 81.6 1%。 2 ) 对主要植被类型的植物生长季变化进行的研究。利用多时相的遥感影像构造了能够反映植被年际、季节生长变化的遥感植被指数ND VImax、NDVI变幅xam以及NDVI的标准偏差x′s 等, 分析这 3个参数 1983~ 1999年的 17年中的变化情况。该数据集的建立是研究该样带土地覆盖特征及其变化规律的基础, 对基于样带的全球变化研究有重要的意义。     

Land‐cover/use transitions in the binational Tijuana River watershed during a period of rapid industrialization

Question: How do differing social and economic systems affect the dynamics and trajectory of land cover / land use change on similar, neighbouring ecosystems in a time span when an economic industrialization program was enforced? Location: Tijuana River watershed, located on the border between Baja California, Mexico and California, United States. Methods: We quantified land use changes between 1970 and 1994 in the Tijuana River watershed. Using aerial photographs and geographic information systems, we elaborated land‐cover/use maps and calculated transition probability matrices to describe natural land‐cover changes at the landscape level on both sides of the border. Results: Land cover / land use transitions are mainly driven by urban development on both sides of the border, but exhibit different patterns in each country. The processes seem to be more complex in the Mexican part of the basin, where itinerant land use may revert induced grasslands and rain‐fed agriculture into natural communities, than on the US side, where the transition pathways are few and unidirectional. Conclusions: Despite the need for an integrated planning and management of binational basins and shared water resources, in practice, these goals may be hampered by different economic and social factors triggering land use change within each country.     

Historical links between settlement,ecology, and politics in the mountains of west Nepal

The paper presents a study of settlement processes in western Nepal. It emphasizes the linkages between settlement history, cultural ecology, and political economy as these relate to resources, marginality, and territory. Regional settlement trends are examined in accordance with land occupancy and tenure arrangements. Village settlement strategies are analyzed within a micro-processual framework that incorporates political economic perspectives on village land use and resource distributions. The past, present, and future roles of settlement in the human adaptation process of west Nepal's mountain populations is critically examined in the contexts of historical land policies and current rural political and environmental systems.     

Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections

Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land‐based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro‐economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.     

Development and Applications of a Comprehensive Land Use Classification and Map for the US

Land cover maps reasonably depict areas that are strongly converted by human activities, but typically are unable to resolve low-density but widespread development patterns. Data products specifically designed to resolve land uses complement land cover datasets and likely improve our ability to understand the extent and complexity of human modification. Methods for developing a comprehensive land use classification system are described, and a map of land use for the conterminous United States is presented to reveal what we are doing on the land. The comprehensive, detailed and high-resolution dataset was developed through spatial analysis of nearly two-dozen publicly-available, national spatial datasets – predominately based on census housing, employment, and infrastructure, as well as land cover from satellite imagery. This effort resulted in 79 land use classes that fit within five main land use groups: built-up, production, recreation, conservation, and water. Key findings from this study are that built-up areas occupy 13.6% of mainland US, but that the majority of this occurs as low-density exurban/rural residential (9.1% of the US), while more intensive built-up land uses occupy 4.5%. For every acre of urban and suburban residential land, there are 0.13 commercial, 0.07 industrial, 0.48 institutional, and 0.29 acres of interstates/highways. This database can be used to address a variety of natural resource applications, and I provide three examples here: an entropy index of the diversity of land uses for smart-growth planning, a power-law scaling of metropolitan area population to developed footprint, and identifying potential conflict areas by delineating the urban interface.     

Livestock-driven land use change to model species distributions: Egyptian vulture as a case study

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict species ranges and their shifts under future scenarios of global environmental change (GEC). SDMs are thus incorporating key drivers of GEC (e.g. climate, land use) to improve predictions of species’ habitat suitability (i.e. as an indicator of species occurrence). Yet, most SDMs incorporating land use only consider dominant land cover types, largely ignoring other key aspects of land use such as land management intensity and livestock. We developed SDMs including main land use components (i.e. land cover, livestock and its management intensity) to assess their relative importance in shaping habitat suitability for the Egyptian vulture, an endangered raptor linked to livestock presence. We modelled current and future (2020 and 2050) habitat suitability for this vulture using an organism-centred approach. This allowed us to account for basic species’ habitat needs (i.e. nesting cliff) while gaining insight into our variables of interest (i.e. livestock and land cover). Once nest-site requirements were fulfilled, land use variables (i.e. openland and sheep and goat density) were the main factors determining species’ habitat suitability. Current suitable area could decrease by up to 6.81% by 2050 under scenarios with rapid economic growth but no focus on environmental conservation and rural development. Local solutions to environmental sustainability and rural development could double current habitat suitability by 2050. Land use is expected to play a key role in determining Egyptian vulture's distribution through land cover change but also through changes in livestock management (i.e. species and stocking density). Change in stocking densities (sheep and goats/km²) becomes thus an indicator of habitat suitability for this vulture in our study area. Abandonment of agro-pastoral practises (i.e. below ∼15–20 sheep and goats/km²) will negatively influence the species distribution. Nonetheless, livestock densities above these values will not further increase habitat suitability. Given the widespread impacts of livestock on ecosystems, the role of livestock and its management intensity in SDMs for other (non-livestock-related) species should be further explored.     

陕北小流域退耕农户剖面特征的土地利用决策响应

采用基于GIS的空间分析、数理统计(Mathematical Statistics)与Multi-logistic回归模型相结合的方法(GMM),探讨退耕前后陕北燕沟流域土地利用及其关键的社会经济驱动因素的变化,揭示农村劳动力转移在土地利用决策中的重要性,了解农村土地利用变化的驱动机制。结果表明:(1)1990—2013年,流域土地利用变化特征总体上与延安市的土地利用变化趋势一致,即坡耕地减少和林草地增加显著;(2)1990—2001年,农业劳动力转移对农户土地利用决策的影响不明显,农户家庭基本特征与资源禀赋等对农户土地利用决策的影响显著。2001—2013年,劳动力转移和交通条件对农户土地利用决策有显著影响,退耕还林政策对农村劳动力的再分配产生了较大影响。     

乡村生态用地综合识别与分类

以川中丘陵区为例,从乡村生态用地的资源特征、形态特征、功能特征3个方面选取生态敏感性、生境质量等10个指标构建乡村生态用地辨识指标体系,开展乡村生态用地综合识别与分类研究。结果表明:辨识指标体系较全面反映了乡村生态用地特征,可以将生态功能强、生境质量高的生态用地和不适宜纳入生态用地范畴的非生态用地同时辨识出来,方法具有可行性;研究区核心、辅助和底线3种生态用地面积分别占土地总面积的20.48%、34.41%和41.16%,核心生态用地以林地、草地和水域为主,辅助和底线生态用地均以耕地为主;研究区生态用地空间分布均衡性表现为辅助生态用地>底线生态用地>核心生态用地>非生态用地,空间分布差异性则与地势(东北高、西南低)走向基本一致;土地利用/覆被类型与乡村生态用地类型之间呈现出一对多的相互关系,主要是由人类活动程度、地质灾害空间分布和地形地貌的差异等原因造成。本研究可以为构建区域生态安全格局、优化土地利用方式、协调区域生产发展和生态保护之间的矛盾提供参考和借鉴,丰富和发展空间规划学、乡村地理学的内容。     

Exploring the association between Trypanosoma cruzi infection in rural communities and environmental changes in the southern Gran Chaco

The association between land use and land cover changes between 1979-2004 in a 2.26-million-hectare area south of the Gran Chaco region and Trypanosoma cruzi infection in rural communities was analysed. The extent of cultural land, open and closed forests and shrubland up to 3,000 m around rural communities in the north, northwest and west of the province of Córdoba was estimated using Landsat satellite imagery. The T. cruzi prevalence was estimated with a cross-sectional serological survey conducted in the rural communities. The land cover showed the same patterns in the 1979, 1999 and 2004 satellite imagery in both the northwest and west regions, with shrinking regions of cultured land and expanding closed forests away from the community. The closed forests and agricultural land coverage in the north region showed the same trend as in the northwest and west regions in 1979 but not in 1999 or 2004. In the latter two years, the coverage remote from the communities was either constant or changed in opposite ways from that of the northwest and west regions. The changes in closed forests and cultured vegetation alone did not have a significant, direct relationship with the occurrence of rural communities with at least one person infected by T. cruzi. This study suggests that the overall decrease in the prevalence of T. cruzi is a consequence of a combined effect of vector control activities and changes in land use and land cover.     

Multiple Methods in the Study of Driving Forces of Land Use and Land Cover Change: A Case Study of SE Kajiado District,Kenya

This landscape-scale study combines analysis of multitemporal satellite imagery spanning 30 years and information from field studies extending over 25 years to assess the extent and causes of land use and land cover change in the Loitokitok area, southeast Kajiado District, Kenya. Rain fed and irrigated agriculture, livestock herding, and wildlife and tourism have all experienced rapid change in their structure, extent, and interactions over the past 30 years in response to a variety of economic, cultural, political, institutional, and demographic processes. Land use patterns and processes are explored through a complementary application of interpretation of satellite imagery and case study analysis that explicitly addresses the local–national spatial scale over a time frame appropriate to the identification of fundamental causal processes. The results illustrate that this combination provides an effective basis for describing and explaining patterns of land use and land cover change and their root causes.     

Effects of land cover on chemical characteristics of streams in the Cerrado region of Brazil

The Cerrado is the second largest Brazilian biome and contains the headwaters of three major hydrological basins in Brazil. In spite of the biological and ecological relevance of this biome, there is little information about how land use changes affect the chemistry of low-order streams in the Cerrado. To evaluate these effects streams that drain areas under natural, rural, and urban land cover were sampled near Brasília, Brazil. Water samples were collected between September 2004 and December 2006. Chemical concentrations generally followed the pattern of Urban > Rural > Natural. Median conductivity of stream water of 21.6 (interquartile: 22.7) ??S/cm in urban streams was three and five-fold greater relative to rural and natural areas, respectively. In the wet season, despite of increasing discharge, concentration of many solutes were higher, particularly in rural and natural streams. Streams also presented higher total dissolved N (TDN) loads from natural to rural and urban although DIN:DON ratios did not differ significantly. In natural and urban streams TDN was 80 and 77% dissolved organic N, respectively. These results indicate that alterations in land cover from natural to rural and urban are changing stream water chemistry in the Cerrado with increasing solute concentrations, in addition to increased TDN output in areas under urban cover, with potential effects on ecosystem function.     

基于Probit回归模型的经济发达地区土地利用变化驱动力分析——以南京市为例

基于1996、2002及2010年的遥感影像,借助RS和GIS技术,分析南京市1996—2010年土地利用变化特征,并采用Probit回归模型定量分析土地利用变化驱动因素.结果表明： 1996—2010年,南京市土地利用变化特征主要表现为耕地和林地面积不断减少,建设用地、园地和草地面积持续增加,综合土地利用变化率呈不断上升趋势,整体处于发展状态;通过对耕地和林地变化的回归分析发现,耕地变化在1996—2002年主要受距最近农村居民点距离和农业人口密度变化的影响,在2002—2010年主要受地均GDP变化、距最近农村居民点距离和距最近道路距离的影响;而林地变化在1996—2002年主要受高程和距最近农村居民点距离的影响,在2002—2010年主要受地均GDP变化、人口密度变化和距最近道路距离的影响.影响研究区土地利用变化的因素早期主要是自然和空间距离因素,而近年主要是社会经济和人口因素.     

基于遥感影像的城市土地利用生态环境效应研究——以城市热环境和植被指数为例

城市化过程中,农村的土壤、水面以及植被等土地覆被类型逐渐减少,取而代之的是由沥青、水泥以及金属等组成的不透水表面,这个过程导致地表水分蒸腾减少、径流加速、显热的存储和传输增加以及水质降低等一系列生态环境效应,其中最明显的两个特征就是土地覆被的植被减少、城市热岛的出现.而城市土地利用类型及其空间结构的生态环境效应同时又是城市生态学中的关键问题,其研究对优化城市功能分区和城市规划管理以及城市可持续发展等都具有重要意义.以上海市为例,采用Landsat7的ETM＋为基本数据源,首先定量反演了每个像元内的陆地表面温度（LST）和植被指数（NDVI）,然后利用GIS中的空间分析功能,将由于城市土地覆被所形成的生态环境效应综合到土地利用的图斑中来,按照这个思路对城市土地利用的生态环境效应进行研究.分析LST、NDVI在不同土地利用类型之间的差异以及二者之间的定量关系,并引入多样性指数（SHDI）,讨论了不同土地利用的空间组合下,LST和NDVI的空间差异及相互关系.研究结果显示：LST和NDVI具有明显的相关性,LST大的区域对应NDVI一般都较小,反之亦然;中心城市LST表现出热岛效应,而NDVI则为低谷效应.通过Tamhance T2 post-hoc多重比较发现,LST以及NDVI在两两土地利用类型之间的差异不同.从土地利用斑块和类型两种尺度水平上建立了LST和NDVI的定量关系,二者具有明显负相关的线性关系,但在不同土地利用类型上二者关系并不同.其中工业仓储、交通用地与公园绿地、农业用地差异最为显著.它们和SHDI之间的关系揭示,LST与土地利用多样性具有正相关关系,而NDVI则与SHDI呈负相关关系,SHDI越大的地区,LST越大,而NDVI越小.由此,可以将LST、NDVI和SHDI作为三个基本指标,来定量评价城市土地利用类型、结构对生态环境的影响,以此作为城市功能分区中生态环境影响评价的参考.也为高性价比的中等分辨率遥感数据与GIS空间分析方法结合在城市规划中的应用提供了一种新的思路.     

岷江上游土地利用/覆被变化及其驱动力

岷江上游具有自然环境的复杂性、生态系统的脆弱性、经济发展的边缘性、社会文化的过渡性等特性,其土地利用/土地覆盖变化的特点可以代表我国西南山地土地资源及利用中所存在的普遍问题.林地和草地是岷江上游地区的主要土地利用类型.从1974～2000年间各个土地利用类型均发生了不同程度的变化,林地面积持续减少,其它类型面积均有不同程度的增加.类型间的面积变化均为双向,主要发生在有林地、灌木林地、经济林地、草地、居民用地和耕地之间,且主要在林地和草地两个类型之间.其中1974～1986年的变化大于1986~2000年.人口和经济是该区土地利用变化的主要驱动因素.自实施天然林保护工程和退耕还林还草工程以来,该区土地利用状况有所好转,正在向好的方向发展.