气候变暖背景下春兰和蕙兰的适生区分布预测

为了阐明气候变暖背景下春兰(Cymbidium goeringii)和蕙兰(C. faberi)在我国的适生区分布变化情况,根据157条分布记录和19个生物气候变量,应用最大熵物种分布模型,对2070年4种温室气体排放情景下春兰和蕙兰在我国的适生区分布进行预测,并筛选影响其地理分布的主要气候因子。结果表明:(1)2070年春兰和蕙兰分布点的年均温(bio1)、最冷月最低温度(bio6)和最冷季平均温度(bio11)等均升高,气候有变暖趋势;(2)受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)值在0.9—1.0之间,模型预测结果可信度较高;(3)影响春兰、蕙兰当前和2070年地理分布的限制性气候因子主要有最冷月最低温度(bio6)、最冷季平均温度(bio11)、年均降水量(bio12)和最干月份降水量(bio14);(4)气候变暖将会对春兰和蕙兰的适宜生境范围和面积产生影响。预测2070年春兰的适宜生境面积将会有所减小,而蕙兰的适宜生境面积将会增加,且整体有向北迁移的趋势。研究结果为野生春兰和蕙兰的生态风险评价和引种提供了重要依据。     

Climatic controls on distribution of Fagus crenata forests in Japan

Abstract. We used classification tree analysis to develop a climate‐based distribution model for Fagus crenata forests in Japan. Four climatic variables judged likely to affect the distribution of the species (summer and winter precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month and Kira's warmth index) were chosen as independent variables for the model. Latitudinal and longitudinal information was also used to examine effects of spatial autocorrelation on the model. The climatic factors associated with the distribution of the forests were analysed using a classification tree to devise prediction rules. Predicted areas of high probability for forest occurrence lay mainly on the Sea of Japan side of northern Honshu and southern Hokkaido. This is consistent with actual forest distribution. Some areas with high predicted probabilities of F. crenata forest occurrence were beyond the current natural northern range limits of these forests. Since these areas were widely scattered, it was assumed that the species has been hindered from colonizing them due to dispersal limitations. Deviance‐weighted scores, used to compare magnitudes of the contributions of predictor variables, revealed winter precipitation as the most influential factor, followed by the warmth index, the minimum temperature of the coldest month and summer precipitation. Attempts were made to generate ecological explanations for the effects of the four climatic factors on the distribution of F. crenata forests.     

Influence of climate on Bonelli's eagle's (Hieraaetus fasciatus V. 1822) breeding success through the Western Mediterranean

Aim To assess the impact of certain climatic variables on the breeding success of some populations of Bonelli's eagle (Hieraaetus fasciatus V. 1822) throughout its latitudinal distribution range, in order to account for recent and differential declines in populations. Location Western Mediterranean, from southern Morocco to southern France. Methods Seven populations were considered for the latitudinal distribution range of the species. Data from 1052 breeding attempts were taken from the literature and, for each population, breeding success was measured as the mean number of fledglings per pair per year. Breeding success, as a dependent variable, was related to five geographical and climatic variables (latitude, mean annual temperature, mean minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean maximum temperature of the hottest month and mean annual precipitation) as independent variables, through some regression models, which take into account the multicolinearity of the variables. Results All the analyses agreed that average annual temperature was an important factor associated with the breeding success of the species in each region, and accounted for up to 97% of the variance of the breeding success throughout a latitudinal gradient in the study area. Main conclusions The low breeding success of the northern populations (probably because of climatic constraints) and the tendency of juveniles to disperse southwards, diminishes recruitment in those populations. Therefore, as human pressure and habitat destruction causes high adult and pre‐adult mortality of the species throughout its entire latitudinal range, disturbances in the northern populations have more profound effects, thereby explaining observed population declines.     

气候变化对黄土高原及邻近地区稀有种枯蝉分布的潜在影响(英文)

【目的】未来数十年的气候变化预计会是造成很多物种生境丧失的一个重要因素。对适应能力相对脆弱的地方性物种,预测气候变化对其生境的影响将对生物多样性保护具有重要意义。【方法】本文基于最大熵模型,对珍稀蝉科中国特有种枯蝉Subpsaltria yangi在当前和未来气候条件下的生境适宜度进行了评估。【结果】结果表明,枯蝉主要局限分布于黄土高原及邻近地区。预计至2050年,即使在温和的气候变化情景下,枯蝉的生境面积也会明显减少。影响枯蝉栖息地分布的关键因素为年平均气温、最冷月的最低气温、最冷季的平均气温和最潮湿月份的降水量。枯蝉现存种群栖息地应当受到保护,甘肃天水和陕西延安地区应作为枯蝉分布的核心区予以保护,以应对气候变化对其生境带来的影响。【结论】本研究获得的枯蝉适宜生境分布图可以为该稀有物种的新种群发现、现生种群分布地土地规划管理以及有效的自然保护区设立提供重要信息。     

Regulation of the abundance and turnover of copepod species by temperature,turbidity and habitat type in a large river basin

Freshwater copepods were sampled in the La Plata River basin to identify the processes that affect beta diversity and to determine the main factors influencing their geographical distribution and patterns of endemism. Beta diversity patterns exhibited strong dissimilarity between locations; the turnover process was predominant and indicated a replacement of species along the basin. Redundancy analysis indicated the presence of two large sets of species separated geographically by a boundary zone, with several associated variables. Northern species were associated with water transparency and temperature, mean air temperature, mean air temperature during winter and minimum air temperature of coldest month, indicating that these species are not tolerant to low temperatures and are abundant in reservoirs that are common in the upper stretch of the Paraná River basin. Southern species were related with amplitude of air temperature, turbidity, total phosphorus and total suspended matter, indicating that these species are polythermic and have adapted to live in river stretches. From 20 environmental variables analyzed in our study, partial least squares analysis indicated four variables with increased retention of effects on copepod abundance: air temperature, minimum temperature of coldest month, turbidity and transparency. Because almost all of the species found in this study occurred across a wide range of habitat types, the cause of the separation between river and reservoir species could be considered to be more anthropogenic than natural, and it primarily affected species abundance. For certain members of the northern group of copepod species, distribution was dependent on high temperatures, whereas the distribution of the southern group indicated that the species were polythermic.     

Large delay in flowering in continental versus coastal populations of a Mediterranean shrub, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Globularia alypum</Emphasis>

Globularia alypum is a perennial shrub typical of western Mediterranean thermophilous shrublands. Nine populations of G. alypum located in different localities of Catalonia (NE Spain) were surveyed for flowering phenology. Flower-head buds were present in all the populations in July. Flowering time in the area spans from the late summer–early autumn to the next spring depending on the populations; there are two groups of populations, early and late flowering. Early populations grow mostly in coastal localities and flower from September to November, whereas late flowering populations grow in inland localities and flower from February to April. The flowering order of the populations correlated with minimum temperature of most months except the warmest ones, and correlated with maximum and mean temperatures of the coldest months. Correlations were similar when tested with annual climate. The flowering order also correlated with the thermic interval for most months except the coldest and with the index of continentality. Early populations alone did not present correlations with any variable, whereas late populations alone correlated similarly to all populations together. Flowering order did not correlate with precipitation. Late populations are proposed to be regulated by temperature according to our results whereas early populations could be regulated by timing in precipitation after summer drought, according to published results. We discuss the possibilities of the two flowering patterns, early and late, being due to phenotypic plasticity or to genetic adaptation to local climates. We also discuss the consequences at the plant and ecosystem level of climate warming causing shifts from late to early patterns, a possibility that is likely in the warmest of the late populations if flowering is modulated phenotypically.     

Effect of Climate Change on Mediterranean Winter Ranges of Two Migratory Passerines

We studied the effect of climate change on the distribution of two insectivorous passerines (the meadow pipit Anthus pratensis and the chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita) in wintering grounds of the Western Mediterranean basin. In this region, precipitation and temperature can affect the distribution of these birds through direct (thermoregulation costs) or indirect effects (primary productivity). Thus, it can be postulated that projected climate changes in the region will affect the extent and suitability of their wintering grounds. We studied pipit and chiffchaff abundance in several hundred localities along a belt crossing Spain and Morocco and assessed the effects of climate and other geographical and habitat predictors on bird distribution. Multivariate analyses reported a positive effect of temperature on the present distribution of the two species, with an additional effect of precipitation on the meadow pipit. These climate variables were used with Maxent to model the occurrence probabilities of species using ring recoveries as presence data. Abundance and occupancy of the two species in the study localities adjusted to the distribution models, with more birds in sectors of high climate suitability. After validation, these models were used to forecast the distribution of climate suitability according to climate projections for 2050–2070 (temperature increase and precipitation reduction). Results show an expansion of climatically suitable sectors into the highlands by the effect of warming on the two species, and a retreat of the meadow pipit from southern sectors related to rain reduction. The predicted patterns show a mean increase in climate suitability for the two species due to the warming of the large highland expanses typical of the western Mediterranean.     

Shifts in potential geographical distribution of Pterocarya stenoptera under climate change scenarios in China

Climate change poses a serious threat to biodiversity. Predicting the effects of climate change on the distribution of a species' habitat can help humans address the potential threats which may change the scope and distribution of species. Pterocarya stenoptera is a common fast‐growing tree species often used in the ecological restoration of riverbanks and alpine forests in central and eastern China. Until now, the characteristics of the distribution of this species' habitat are poorly known as are the environmental factors that influence its preferred habitat. In the present study, the Maximum Entropy Modeling (Maxent) algorithm and the Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production (GARP) were used to establish the models for the potential distribution of this species by selecting 236 sites with known occurrences and 14 environmental variables. The results indicate that both models have good predictive power. Minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio6), mean temperature of warmest quarter (Bio10), annual precipitation (Bio12), and precipitation of driest month (Bio14) were important environmental variables influencing the prediction of the Maxent model. According to the models, the temperate and subtropical regions of eastern China had high environmental suitability for this species, where the species had been recorded. Under each climate change scenario, climatic suitability of the existing range of this species increased, and its climatic niche expanded geographically to the north and higher elevation. GARP predicted a more conservative expansion. The projected spatial and temporal patterns of P. stenoptera can provide reference for the development of forest management and protection strategies.     

Defining phytoclimatic units in Galicia,Spain, by means of multivariate methods

Abstract. Floristic and climate data from 150 plots in 25 sites in Galicia, Spain, were analysed to test the hypothesis that climate is the major factor governing the distribution of woody plant species. TWINSPAN classification, Detrended Correspondence Analysis and Canonical Correspondence Analysis were applied in successive stages of the data analysis to describe vegetational variation in relation to climatic gradients. Six groups of species were defined, two clearly oceanic (Maritime and Cool Maritime), one mediterranean maritime, and three mediterranean (Cold Mediterranean, Cool Mediterranean and Temperate Mediterranean). An aridity gradient was revealed as the primary factor regulating the distribution of the species considered. This main gradient reflects the transition between the Eurosiberian and Mediterranean bio-geographic regions. The gradient can be characterized by means of the Vernet bioclimatic index. A value ≥ 4 for this index can be taken to define the mediterranean zone in our study area. The mean minimum temperature in the coldest month was the second most influential climatic variable. Partial ordination analysis revealed that the residual variation was insignificant and that the observed variation in vegetation can be fully accounted for by climatic variables.     

Nowhere to Invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia Projected to Disappear under Future Climate Scenarios

Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas.     

Distribution range and ecological niche of Primula marginata Curtis (Primulaceae)

The distribution range of Primula marginata Curtis (Primulaceae) has never been fully characterized. In the present study, authors did a revision of the distribution range using herbaria material, database records and in situ populations' check-up. P. marginata was confirmed extending from Cottian to Maritime and Ligurian Alps, with few outlier occurrences in the northern Apennines. The localities previously reported from northern Piedmont (Val d'Ossola) were not confirmed. Maximum entropy model (Maxent) was used to simulate the potential distribution of P. marginata under current climate conditions. According to the distribution modelling performed, the species prefers rocky calcareous habitats mainly at high elevations, with abundant precipitation, but low moisture retention at soil level and marked temperature range between winter and summer seasons. The potential distribution area drawn by Maxent seemed to describe P. marginata at its maximum extension, and any future climate changes might cause limitations for the survival of the species.     

Identifying the determinant habitat characteristics influencing the spatial distribution of Ferula ovina (Boiss.) in semiarid rangelands of Iran using machine learning methods

Ferula ovina (Boiss.) is a valuable but vulnerable monocarpic perennial forb species from Apiaceae plant family whose habitat has been degraded over the years; hence identifying the factors controlling its distribution is important to assist range managers for the reclamation activities. The specific objective of this study was to investigate the quantitative relationships between soil properties, topographical features, climate factors and F. ovina distribution in a semiarid part of central Iran and to assess the relative importance of these factors in controlling its spatial variability. To discern these complex relationships, artificial neural networks (ANNs), support vector machines (SVMs), and decision tree CHAID algorithm were employed. Results from the ANN, SVM, and CHAID models indicated that the climate and topographic conditions should be considered more in explaining the variability in F. ovina occurrence and distribution. Factors such as slope, precipitation of warmest month, and minimum temperature of coldest month were identified by the ANN, SVM, and CHAID models as the determinant factors influencing the spatial distribution of F. ovina in central Iran, respectively. Furthermore, CHAID approach showed greater potential in predicting the F. ovina occurrence in the study area. This study provides a strong basis for identifying the most determinant habitat characteristics of F. ovina and other vulnerable or endangered plant species in semiarid rangelands of Iran; however, its general analytical framework could be applied to other parts of the world with similar challenges.     

Plant functional types and climate in a southern African savanna

Abstract. A system of easily defined plant functional types for a dry savanna is presented and related to climate data. To predict possible changes of vegetation in response to climate change, a system of functional attributes is developed. The attributes are based on both structural and functional characteristics and are chosen to be related to climatic conditions. plant functional types are defined as assemblages of plant species having similar combinations of plant functional attributes. Direct and indirect gradient analyses of a test data set show that the plant functional types as well as the vegetation described from them are strongly associated with total annual precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month and a moisture index (all related to soil moisture) and with temperature of the coldest month.     

唐古特大黄(Rheum tanguticum Maxim. ex Balf.)功效组分地理变异及气候响应特征

通过研究道地药材唐古特大黄（Rheum tanguticum Maxim.ex Balf.）四种功效组分的地理变异,以及与多层次气候因子间的响应关系,揭示唐古特大黄不同化学型形成的生态学机制。运用聚类方法研究唐古特大黄成分地理变异的空间规律,并利用相关系数法分析气候因子与唐古特大黄成分的响应关系。结果表明：唐古特大黄功效组分存在明显的地理变异。青海和甘肃地区的唐古特大黄属于结合蒽醌化学生态型;而四川所产唐古特大黄为游离蒽醌化学生态型。不同时间尺度气候因子与唐古特大黄组分间的响应特征为：结合蒽醌类物质与年均温呈强负相关,多酚类物质与年均温和年降水为负相关,而与年均日照时数为正相关;结合蒽醌类物质与最冷季节温度是强负相关,多酚类物质与最冷季节温度和最湿季降雨量呈强负相关;月均温和月均日照对结合蒽醌类物质和多酚类物质影响大,其中1月至6月平均气温和9月至12月平均气温与蒽醌类物质呈强负相关,多酚类物质与5月日照量、6月日照量和7月日照量表现出强正相关。地区间的温度和日照量差异是唐古特大黄不同化学型形成的气候原因。最冷季的低温和最湿季的日照量是影响唐古特大黄品质的关键气候因子和主要时间窗口。温度浮动大,日照量高且降水量少的低温区域有助于结合蒽醌类和多酚类物质的形成和累积。     

A MaxEnt modelling approach to understand the climate change effects on the distributional range of White-bellied Sholakili Sholicola albiventris (Blanford, 1868) in the Western Ghats,India

Each species is uniquely influenced by anthropogenic climate change. Change in temperature and precipitation due to climate change may lead to species adaptation or extinction, or in some cases, a range shift. To know the influence of climate change on a restricted and endemic bird species of the Western Ghats (WG), White-bellied Sholakili (WBS) Sholicola albiventris (Blanford, 1868), we conducted a study by using species distribution modelling. We considered 73 spatial bias-corrected occurrence points of WBS along with environmental variables like the mean temperature of coldest quarter (Bio 11), precipitation of driest month (Bio 14) and mean precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio 18). We used the MaxEnt application with ENM evaluate tool in R statistical package for developing a climate model for WBS. Bio 11 was observed to be the most crucial climate variable shaping the habitat of WBS. The current study predicts that only 2823km² in WG is suitable for WBS. One-third of this area falls under the protected area network, of which 52% is becoming unsuitable to this narrow endemic due to climate warming. The model also predicts 26% to 45% habitat loss under different climate change scenarios by the 2050s.     

基于生态位模型的外来入侵种克氏原螯虾在中国的适生区预测

克氏原螯虾在20世纪初作为重要的水产品引入中国,但因其繁殖能力强、生长迅速、适应性强、喜掘洞穴,对农作物、池埂及农田水利有一定破坏作用,降低入侵地区当地物种多样性,对当地生态系统造成严重危害。因此,研究未来气候情景下克氏原螯虾适生区的变化,可为其监控和管理措施提供关键信息,有效预防和控制其蔓延。本研究基于克氏原螯虾的分布点,应用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型和规则集遗传算法(GARP)模型模拟了当前气候条件下克氏原螯虾在中国的潜在适生区,并预测了2041—2060年和2061—2080年克氏原螯虾在4种气候变化情景下(RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 6.0、RCP 8.5)的分布,采用ROC曲线对预测结果进行检验和评价。结果表明: 在当前气候条件下克氏原螯虾集中分布在上海、江苏、浙江、安徽等长江沿岸地区;最冷季平均温度、最冷月最低温度对克氏原螯虾分布影响最大,其次是温度季节性变化、最暖月最高温度和最干月降水量。在未来气候情景下,2061—2080年克氏原螯虾的适生区面积有不同程度的变化,在RCP 2.6和RCP 4.5情景下总适生面积增加,但在RCP 8.5情景下呈先增后减趋势,而在RCP 6.0情景下无明显变化;克氏原螯虾适生区在空间分布上不仅有纬度方向上的扩散,也有向海拔较高地区迁移的趋势。     

Ambient temperature correlates with geographic variation in body size of least horseshoe bats

Geographic variation in body size is common within many animal species. The causes of this pattern, however, remain largely unexplored in most vertebrate groups. Bats are widely distributed globally owing to their ability of powered flight. Most bat species encounter a variety of climatic conditions across their distribution range, making them an ideal taxon for the study of ecogeographic patterns in body size. Here, we used adult least horseshoe bats, Rhinolophus pusillus, to test whether geographic variation in body size was determined by heat conservation, heat dissipation, climatic seasonality, or primary productivity. We measured body mass and head-body length for 246 adult bats from 12 allopatric colonies in China. We quantified the ecological conditions inhabited by each colony, including mean maximum temperature of the warmest month, mean minimum temperature of the coldest month, temperature seasonality, precipitation seasonality, and annual net primary productivity (ANPP). Body mass and head-body length, 2 of the most reliable indicators of body size, exhibited marked differences between colonies. After controlling for spatial autocorrelation, the mean minimum temperature of the coldest month explained most of the variation in body size among colonies, regardless of sex. The mean maximum temperature, climatic seasonality, and ANPP had limited power in predicting body size of males or females in comparison with mean minimum temperature. These results support the heat conservation hypothesis and suggest adaptive responses of body size to cold climates in cave-dwelling bats.     

Climate Exposure of US National Parks in a New Era of Change

US national parks are challenged by climate and other forms of broad-scale environmental change that operate beyond administrative boundaries and in some instances are occurring at especially rapid rates. Here, we evaluate the climate change exposure of 289 natural resource parks administered by the US National Park Service (NPS), and ask which are presently (past 10 to 30 years) experiencing extreme (<5^th percentile or >95^th percentile) climates relative to their 1901–2012 historical range of variability (HRV). We consider parks in a landscape context (including surrounding 30 km) and evaluate both mean and inter-annual variation in 25 biologically relevant climate variables related to temperature, precipitation, frost and wet day frequencies, vapor pressure, cloud cover, and seasonality. We also consider sensitivity of findings to the moving time window of analysis (10, 20, and 30 year windows). Results show that parks are overwhelmingly at the extreme warm end of historical temperature distributions and this is true for several variables (e.g., annual mean temperature, minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the warmest quarter). Precipitation and other moisture patterns are geographically more heterogeneous across parks and show greater variation among variables. Across climate variables, recent inter-annual variation is generally well within the range of variability observed since 1901. Moving window size has a measureable effect on these estimates, but parks with extreme climates also tend to exhibit low sensitivity to the time window of analysis. We highlight particular parks that illustrate different extremes and may facilitate understanding responses of park resources to ongoing climate change. We conclude with discussion of how results relate to anticipated future changes in climate, as well as how they can inform NPS and neighboring land management and planning in a new era of change.     

基于MaxEnt模型预测黄脊竹蝗在中国的适生区

为探明黄脊竹蝗Ceracris kiangsu在我国的潜在适生区,做好早期虫情监测.本研究根据267个黄脊竹蝗物种分布点,结合气候数据,采用最大熵(Maxent)模型和ArcGIS预测黄脊竹蝗在我国的适生区分布.结果表明:影响黄脊竹蝗适生区分布的主要环境变量为最干月降水量和最冷月最低温,次要环境变量为湿季降水量、最热月最高温、降水量季节性变异系数和温度年较差.预测的黄脊竹蝗高适生区、中适生区、低适生区分别占全国陆地总面积的3.0％、5.6％和10.3％,适生区主要分布在江淮流域、长江中下游地区、华南及西南等地.模型预测结果与实际调查一致性较高,能够反映真实分布情况,对科学开展黄脊竹蝗防控具有较高参考价值.     

Impact of climatic variation on populations of pine processionary moth Thaumetopoea pityocampa in a core area of its distribution

• 1 There is growing appreciation of climatic effects on insect population dynamics at the margins of distribution limits. Climatic effects might be less important and/or involve different drivers and processes near the centre of distributions.
• 2 We evaluated the effects of interannual variation in temperatures, radiation and precipitation on populations of pine processionary moth Thaumetopoea pityocampa in Central–South Portugal, a low altitude area with a relatively mild Mediterranean climate near the centre of the north–south range of the species.
• 3 We tested for effects of climate on mortality of young larvae, growth rates, final larval mass and fecundity.
• 4 Results indicated high mortality of early instars associated with low minimum and maximum daily temperatures and low precipitation. Low minimum temperatures were further associated with high parasitism by the larval parasitoid Phryxe caudata (Rondani) (Diptera, Tachinidae). Furthermore, larval growth rates were higher with high solar radiation during December and January, which was itself negatively related to precipitation and air temperature. Slow larval growth rates led to lower final mass at pupation in the spring, and smaller egg masses and smaller initial colony sizes during the next autumn.
• 5 Thus climatic factors, and temperature in particular, apparently contributed to population dynamics of T. pityocampa in the core of its distribution, as well as at its northern limits. The most specific climatic parameters of importance, however, and the connections between climate, physiology and insect demographics in the core area were clearly different from northern areas.