Statistical hypothesis testing in intraspecific phylogeography: nested clade phylogeographical analysis vs. approximate Bayesian computation

Nested clade phylogeographical analysis (NCPA) and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have been used to test phylogeographical hypotheses. Multilocus NCPA tests null hypotheses, whereas ABC discriminates among a finite set of alternatives. The interpretive criteria of NCPA are explicit and allow complex models to be built from simple components. The interpretive criteria of ABC are ad hoc and require the specification of a complete phylogeographical model. The conclusions from ABC are often influenced by implicit assumptions arising from the many parameters needed to specify a complex model. These complex models confound many assumptions so that biological interpretations are difficult. Sampling error is accounted for in NCPA, but ABC ignores important sources of sampling error that creates pseudo-statistical power. NCPA generates the full sampling distribution of its statistics, but ABC only yields local probabilities, which in turn make it impossible to distinguish between a good fitting model, a non-informative model, and an over-determined model. Both NCPA and ABC use approximations, but convergences of the approximations used in NCPA are well defined whereas those in ABC are not. NCPA can analyse a large number of locations, but ABC cannot. Finally, the dimensionality of tested hypothesis is known in NCPA, but not for ABC. As a consequence, the 'probabilities' generated by ABC are not true probabilities and are statistically non-interpretable. Accordingly, ABC should not be used for hypothesis testing, but simulation approaches are valuable when used in conjunction with NCPA or other methods that do not rely on highly parameterized models.     

Multiple causation of phylogeographical pattern as revealed by nested clade analysis of the bamboo viper (Trimeresurus stejnegeri) within Taiwan

In order to assess the utility of nested clade analysis, both standard phylogenetic algorithms and nested clade analysis were performed on a geographically widespread survey of mitochondrial DNA haplotypes of the bamboo viper, Trimeresurus stejnegeri, within Taiwan. Gross tree topologies were congruent for all analyses and indicated the presence of two geographically overlapping clades within Taiwan. The smaller lineage was restricted to the north and east coasts, whereas the larger lineage occupied all but the northern range of the species within Taiwan including the Pacific offshore populations of Green and Orchid Islands. The phylogeographical pattern supports the existence of at least one colonization event from the continent since the initial isolation of Taiwan from the mainland in the Pliocene. However, determining the exact number of colonization events was not possible due to the simultaneous vicariant forces of hypothesized continental landbridge connections and the occurrence of dramatic in situ orogenesis throughout the Pleistocene. Nested clade analysis provided multiple temporal and spatial population historical inferences that are not possible with standard analyses and therefore should become widely applied to future phylogeographical studies.     

The automation and evaluation of nested clade phylogeographic analysis

Nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA) is a popular method for reconstructing the demographic history of spatially distributed populations from genetic data. Although some parts of the analysis are automated, there is no unique and widely followed algorithm for doing this in its entirety, beginning with the data, and ending with the inferences drawn from the data. This article describes a method that automates NCPA, thereby providing a framework for replicating analyses in an objective way. To do so, a number of decisions need to be made so that the automated implementation is representative of previous analyses. We review how the NCPA procedure has evolved since its inception and conclude that there is scope for some variability in the manual application of NCPA. We apply the automated software to three published datasets previously analyzed manually and replicate many details of the manual analyses, suggesting that the current algorithm is representative of how a typical user will perform NCPA. We simulate a large number of replicate datasets for geographically distributed, but entirely random-mating, populations. These are then analyzed using the automated NCPA algorithm. Results indicate that NCPA tends to give a high frequency of false positives. In our simulations we observe that 14% of the clades give a conclusive inference that a demographic event has occurred, and that 75% of the datasets have at least one clade that gives such an inference. This is mainly due to the generation of multiple statistics per clade, of which only one is required to be significant to apply the inference key. We survey the inferences that have been made in recent publications and show that the most commonly inferred processes (restricted gene flow with isolation by distance and contiguous range expansion) are those that are commonly inferred in our simulations. However, published datasets typically yield a richer set of inferences with NCPA than obtained in our random-mating simulations, and further testing of NCPA with models of structured populations is necessary to examine its accuracy.     

The coup de grace for the nested clade phylogeographic analysis?

Nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA) has become a popular method for reconstructing the history of populations across species ranges. Ever since its invention in 1995, criticisms have been formulated, but the method, which has been regularly updated, continues to attract investigators. Molecular Ecology has published a large fraction of the literature on the topic--both pro and con. A recent study by Panchal and Beaumont (2007) finally allows a precise evaluation of the method by developing software that automates the somewhat complicated NCPA procedure. Using simulations of random-mating populations, Panchal and Beaumont find a high frequency of false-positives with their automated NCPA procedure (over 75%). These findings, which echo and amplify earlier warnings, appear serious enough to suggest to researchers to await further evaluation of the method. Although no other all-encompassing method such as the NCAP currently exists to evaluate phylogeographic data sets, researchers have many alternative methods to test ever more refined hypotheses.     

Population structure between environmentally transmitted vibrios and bobtail squids using nested clade analysis

Squids from the genus Euprymna (Cephalopoda: Sepiolidae) and their symbiotic bacteria Vibrio fischeri form a mutualism in which vibrios inhabit a complex light organ within the squid host. A host-mediated daily expulsion event seeds surrounding seawater with symbiotically capable V. fischeri that environmentally colonize newly hatched axenic Euprymna juveniles. Competition experiments using native and non-native Vibrio have shown that this expulsion/re-colonization phenomenon has led to cospeciation in this system in the Pacific Ocean; however, the genetic architecture of these symbiotic populations has not been determined. Using genetic diversity and nested clade analyses we have examined the variation and history of three allopatric Euprymna squid species (E. scolopes of Hawaii, E. hyllebergi of Thailand, and E. tasmanica from Australia) and their respective Vibrio symbionts. Euprymna populations appear to be very genetically distinct from each other, exhibiting little or no migration over large geographical distances. In contrast, Vibrio symbiont populations contain more diverse haplotypes, suggesting both host presence and unidentified factors facilitating long-distance migration structure in Pacific Vibrio populations. Findings from this study highlight the importance of how interactions between symbiotic organisms can unexpectedly shape population structure in phylogeographical studies.     

Using nested clade analysis to assess the history of colonization and the persistence of populations of an Iberian Lizard

The distribution of the lizard Lacerta schreiberi is likely to have been severely affected by the climatic cycles that have influenced the Iberian Peninsula. Information about the species ecology and Iberian physiogeography was used to generate specific hypotheses about episodes of colonization and subsequent population persistence. These hypotheses generated predictions about the distribution of genetic variation, which were tested using nested clade analysis (NCA) supplemented by analysis of molecular variance (amova). Two predictions were confirmed by NCA; that is those that specified multiple and allopatric refugia. However, the remaining three predictions were not corroborated by the analyses. Firstly, a simple analysis of the distribution of genetic variability failed to detect an expected difference in the pattern of colonization between the inland mountain system and the coastal region. Moreover, while NCA did detect the expected genetic pattern in southern coastal populations, it was explained in terms of long-distance migration, which seems implausible because of the extent of unsuitable habitat. A more likely cause of the pattern is population fragmentation and a reduction in population size caused during the Holocene. Finally, NCA also failed to detect a northwestern population expansion, which is supported by other evidence. We conclude that NCA has a limited ability to detect range expansion led by individuals with more ancestral (interior) haplotypes.     

Gene flow, dispersal, and nested clade analysis among populations of the stonefly Peltoperla tarteri in the southern Appalachians

We examined the genetic structure and phylogeography of populations of the stonefly Peltoperla tarteri in the Southern Appalachians to determine the extent and likely mechanism for dispersal of this stream insect. A 454-base-pair (bp) portion of the mitochondrial control region was sequenced from a minimum of 20 individuals from eight populations. Pairwise FST and exact tests showed high levels of differentiation among almost all populations except those on the same stream. amova analysis detected significant genetic differentiation between streams within drainages (phi(SD) = 0.14, P < 0.001), and there was a slight positive correlation between aquatic distance and genetic distance (r = 0.295, P = 0.03). According to nested clade analysis, the present day pattern of genetic variation in P. tarteri is the result of a historical range expansion coupled with restricted gene flow with isolation by distance. Together, these analyses suggest that adult dispersal is limited and that movement by larvae is the primary dispersal mechanism for P. tarteri.     

Glacial history of the alpine herb Rumex Nivalis (Polygonaceae): a comparison of common phylogeographic methods with nested clade analysis

The glacial history of the alpine herb Rumex nivalis was investigated using amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) and restriction fragment length polymorphisms with polymerase chain reaction (PCR-RFLPs) of cpDNA. Both traditional statistical methods widely applied in phylogeographic research and nested clade analysis were used. The AFLPs indicated little geographic structure probably due to the wind-pollinated reproductive system of the dioecious R. nivalis. Because cpDNA haplotypes exhibited distinct distributional patterns, correlation between AFLPs and PCR-RFLPs was low. The results of common statistical methods and of nested clade analysis were largely congruent. Both supported in situ survival of one group of common haplotypes in the Central Alps. For another group of common haplotypes, classical phylogeographic analyses gave strong evidence for survival in peripheral refugia at the northern alpine border, whereas this conclusion was not as clearly supported in the nested clade analysis. Nested clade analysis provided several detailed insights on past and ongoing populational demographic processes. Thus, it is a valuable tool in the phylogeographical analysis of haplotype data, but it should preferably be combined with other statistical analyses. In situations with low genetic variation in cpDNA, classical phylogeographic analytical tools on nuclear DNA will still be the methods of choice.     

The phylogeographical clade trade: tracing the impact of human-mediated dispersal on the colonization of northern Europe by the oak gallwasp Andricus kollari

Human dispersal of organisms is an important process modifying natural patterns of biodiversity. Such dispersal generates new patterns of genetic diversity that overlie natural phylogeographical signatures, allowing discrimination between alternative dispersal mechanisms. Here we use allele frequency and DNA sequence data to distinguish between alternative scenarios (unassisted range expansion and long range introduction) for the colonization of northern Europe by an oak-feeding gallwasp, Andricus kollari. Native to Mediterranean latitudes from Portugal to Iran, this species became established in northern Europe following human introduction of a host plant, the Turkey oak Quercus cerris. Colonization of northern Europe is possible through three alternative routes: (i) unassisted range expansion from natural populations in the Iberian Peninsula; (ii) unassisted range expansion from natural populations in Italy and Hungary; or (iii) descent from populations imported to the UK as trade goods from the eastern Mediterranean in the 1830s. We show that while populations in France were colonized from sources in Italy and Hungary, populations in the UK and neighbouring parts of coastal northern Europe encompass allozyme and sequence variation absent from the known native range. Further, these populations show demographic signatures expected for large stable populations, rather than signatures of rapid population growth from small numbers of founders. The extent and spatial distribution of genetic diversity in the UK suggests that these A. kollari populations are derived from introductions of large numbers of individuals from each of two genetically divergent centres of diversity in the eastern Mediterranean. The strong spatial patterning in genetic diversity observed between different regions of northern Europe, and between sites in the UK, is compatible with leptokurtic models of population establishment.     

Phylogeography of the Vosges mountains populations of Gonioctena pallida (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae): a nested clade analysis of mitochondrial DNA haplotypes

The pattern of genetic variation in the leaf beetle Gonioctena pallida was investigated inside the Vosges mountains using a highly variable 363 bp DNA fragment of the mitochondrial control region. Sequencing of 242 individuals, sampled in a geographical area of 100 x 40 km, identified 61 haplotypes whose genealogy was inferred. The resulting haplotype network exhibits four star-like phylogenies, two of which may be indicative of a population having recently expanded in size from a small number of founders. Nested clade analysis suggested multiple past expansion events, but also isolation by distance and possibly past fragmentation events, as the causes of the detected geographical associations of haplotypes. These results indicate the existence of effective barriers to gene flow inside the investigated area. Because the oldest demographic events inferred in the nested clade analysis were identified as expansion events, we hypothesize that a small population of founders have expanded not only in size, but also in geographical range from the south towards the north and east of the Vosges.     

On the phylogenetic position of insects in the Pancrustacea clade

The current views on the phylogeny of arthropods are at odds with the traditional system, which recognizes four independent arthropod classes: Chelicerata, Crustacea, Myriapoda, and Insecta. There is compelling evidence that insects comprise a monophyletic lineage with Crustacea within a larger clade named Pancrustacea, or Tetraconata. However, which crustacean group is the closest living relative of insects is still an open question. In recent phylogenetic trees constructed on the basis of large gene sequence data insects are placed together with primitive crustaceans, the Branchiopoda. This topology is often suspected to be a result of the long branch attraction artifact. We analyzed concatenated data on 77 ribosomal proteins, elongation factor 1A (EF1A), initiation factor 5A (eIF5A), and several other nuclear and mitochondrial proteins. Analyses of nuclear genes confirm the monophyly of Hexapoda, the clade uniting entognath and ectognath insects. The hypothesis of the monophyly of Hexapoda and Branchiopoda is supported in the majority of analyses. The Maxillopoda, another clade of Entomostraca, occupies a sister position to the Hexapoda + Branchiopoda group. Higher crustaceans, the Malacostraca, in most analyses appear a more basal lineage within the Pancrustacea. We report molecular synapomorphies in low homoplastic regions, which support the clade Hexapoda + Branchiopoda + Maxillopoda and the monophyletic Malacostraca including Phyllocarida. Thus, the common origin of Hexapoda and Branchiopoda and their position within Entomostraca are suggested to represent bona fide phylogenetic relationships rather than computational artifacts.     

Linear habitats and the nested clade analysis: an empirical evaluation of geographic versus river distances using an Ozark crayfish (Decapoda: Cambaridae)

Abstract .The nested clade analysis can be extremely useful in testing for an association between genetic variation and geography and in explaining these observed patterns in terms of historical or contemporary population processes. The strength of this method lies in its ability to test a variety of processes simultaneously under a rigorous statistical framework. Indeed, many recent studies have used the nested analysis in a wide range of terrestrial and aquatic taxa. However, it has been suggested that riverine, riparian, or coastal species may be better examined using river (or coastal) distances rather than the standard geographic (great circle) distances among populations. It is thought that the standard geographic distances may not adequately describe the actual distances involved between populations of species inhabiting these one-dimensional (riverine) habitats. Therefore, we analyzed population data from an Ozark crayfish, Orconectes luteus , to examine the effects on the results of a nested clade analysis using river distances. In most cases, the haplotypes detected in this crayfish were unique to a particular drainage or a group of neighboring drainages, indicating very little movement of individuals among drainages. Five major population groups were detected, corresponding to many of the major river drainages sampled in this study. The two types of distance analyses obtain similar results for higher-level (older) clades, but differ in many of the inferences made for lower-level (younger) clades. However, we suggest that the comparison of both types of analyses for riverine species may enhance the process of elucidating historical and contemporary population processes, especially in cases where the transfer of individuals among different drainages are involved.     

A phylogeographical analysis of the bemisia tabaci species complex based on mitochondrial DNA markers

Mitochondrial 16S ( approximately 550 bp) and cytochrome oxidase I (COI) ( approximately 700 bp) sequences were utilized as markers to reconstruct a phylogeography for representative populations or biotypes of Bemisia tabaci. 16S sequences exhibited less divergence than COI sequences. Of the 429 characters examined for COI sequences, 185 sites were invariant, 244 were variable and 108 were informative. COI sequence identities yielded distances ranging from less than 1% to greater than 17%. Whitefly 16S sequences of 456 characters were analysed which consisted of 298 invariant sites, 158 variable sites and 53 informative sites. Phylogenetic analyses conducted by maximum parsimony, maximum-likelihood and neighbour-joining methods yielded almost identical phylogenetic reconstructions of trees that separated whiteflies based on geographical origin. The 16S and COI sequence data indicate that the B-biotype originated in the Old World (Europe, Asia and Africa) and is most closely related to B-like variants from Israel and Yemen, with the next closest relative being a biotype from Sudan. These data confirm the biochemical, genetic and behavioural polymorphisms described previously for B. tabaci. The consideration of all global variants of B. tabaci as a highly cryptic group of sibling species is argued.     

On the validity of Bergmann's rule

Aim We reviewed the occurrence of Bergmann's rule in birds (ninety‐four species) and mammals (149 species), using only studies where statistical significance of the results was tested. We also tested whether studies using different characters as surrogates of body size have a different tendency to conform to Bergmann's rule, whether body size and nest type (in birds) have an influence on the tendency to conform to the rule, and whether sedentary birds conform to the rule more than migratory birds. Location Worldwide. Methods We reviewed published data on geographic and temporal variation in body size, using only studies where the statistical significance of the results was tested. We asked how many species conform to the rule out of all species studied in each order and family. Results Over 72% of the birds and 65% of the mammal species follow Bergmann's rule. An overall tendency to follow the rule occurs also within orders and families. Studies using body mass in mammals show the greatest tendency to adhere to Bergmann's rule (linear measurements and dental measurements show a weaker tendency); while in birds, studies using body mass and other surrogates (linear measurements and egg size) show a similar tendency. Birds of different body mass categories exhibit a similar tendency to follow Bergmann's rule, while in mammals the lower body size categories (4–50 and 50–500 g) show a significantly lower tendency to conform to the rule. Sedentary birds tend to conform to Bergmann's rule more than migratory species. Nest type does not affect the tendency to conform to Bergmann's rule. Main conclusions Bergmann's rule is a valid ecological generalization for birds and mammals.