Utility of T-Cell Interferon-γ Release Assays for Diagnosing Tuberculous Serositis: A Prospective Study in Beijing,China

Background

Diagnosis of tuberculous serositis remains a challenge. The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic efficiency of T-SPOT.TB on serous effusion mononuclear cells (SEMC) for diagnosing tuberculous serositis in a high TB burden area.

Methods

The present prospective study enrolled patients with suspected tuberculous serositis in a tertiary referral hospital in Beijing, China, to investigate the diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, predictive value (PV), and likelihood ratio(LR) of these tests. Clinical assessment, T-SPOT.TB on SEMC, and T-SPOT.TB on PBMC were performed. Test results were compared with the final confirmed diagnosis.

Results

Of the 187 participants, 74 (39.6%) were microbiologically or clinically diagnosed as tuberculous serositis and 93(49.7%) were ruled out. The remaining 20 (10.7%) patients were clinically indeterminate and excluded from the final analysis. Compared to that on PBMC, T-SPOT.TB on SEMC showed higher sensitivity (91.9%vs73.0%, P = 0.002), specificity (87.1%vs.73.1%, P = 0.017), PPV (85.0%vs.68.4%, P = 0.013), NPV (93.1%vs.77.3%, P = 0.003), LR+ (7.12vs.2.72) and LR- (0.09vs.0.37), respectively. The frequencies of spot forming cells (SFCs) for T-SPOT.TB on SEMC were 636 per million SEMC (IQR, 143–3443) in patients with tuberculous serositis, which were 4.6-fold (IQR, 1.3–14.3) higher than those of PBMC. By ROC curve analysis, a cut-off value of 56 SFCs per million SEMC for T-SPOT.TB on SEMC showed a sensitivity of 90.5% and specificity of 89.2% for the diagnosis of tuberculous serositis.

Conclusions

T-SPOT.TB on SEMC could be an accurate diagnostic method for tuberculous serositis in TB endemic settings. And 56 SFCs per million SEMC might be the optimal cut-off value to diagnose tuberculous serositis.     

Validity of Physician Billing Claims to Identify Deceased Organ Donors in Large Healthcare Databases

Objective

We evaluated the validity of physician billing claims to identify deceased organ donors in large provincial healthcare databases.

Methods

We conducted a population-based retrospective validation study of all deceased donors in Ontario, Canada from 2006 to 2011 (n = 988). We included all registered deaths during the same period (n = 458,074). Our main outcome measures included sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of various algorithms consisting of physician billing claims to identify deceased organ donors and organ-specific donors compared to a reference standard of medical chart abstraction.

Results

The best performing algorithm consisted of any one of 10 different physician billing claims. This algorithm had a sensitivity of 75.4% (95% CI: 72.6% to 78.0%) and a positive predictive value of 77.4% (95% CI: 74.7% to 80.0%) for the identification of deceased organ donors. As expected, specificity and negative predictive value were near 100%. The number of organ donors identified by the algorithm each year was similar to the expected value, and this included the pre-validation period (1991 to 2005). Algorithms to identify organ–specific donors performed poorly (e.g. sensitivity ranged from 0% for small intestine to 67% for heart; positive predictive values ranged from 0% for small intestine to 37% for heart).

Interpretation

Primary data abstraction to identify deceased organ donors should be used whenever possible, particularly for the detection of organ-specific donations. The limitations of physician billing claims should be considered whenever they are used.     

A Clinical Prediction Rule for Histological Chorioamnionitis in Preterm Newborns

Background

Histological chorioamnionitis (HC) is an intrauterine inflammatory process highly associated with preterm birth and adverse neonatal outcome. HC is often clinically silent and diagnosed postnatally by placental histology. Earlier identification could facilitate treatment individualisation to improve outcome in preterm newborns.

Aim

Develop a clinical prediction rule at birth for HC and HC with fetal involvement (HCF) in preterm newborns.

Methods

Clinical data and placental pathology were obtained from singleton preterm newborns (gestational age ≤32.0 weeks) born at Erasmus UMC Rotterdam from 2001 to 2003 (derivation cohort; n = 216) or Máxima MC Veldhoven from 2009 to 2010 (validation cohort; n = 206). HC and HCF prediction rules were developed with preference for high sensitivity using clinical variables available at birth.

Results

HC and HCF were present in 39% and 24% in the derivation cohort and in 44% and 22% in the validation cohort, respectively. HC was predicted with 87% accuracy, yielding an area under ROC curve of 0.95 (95%CI = 0.92–0.98), a positive predictive value of 80% (95%CI = 74–84%), and a negative predictive value of 93% (95%CI = 88–96%). Corresponding figures for HCF were: accuracy 83%, area under ROC curve 0.92 (95%CI = 0.88–0.96), positive predictive value 59% (95%CI = 52–62%), and negative predictive value 97% (95%CI = 93–99%). External validation expectedly resulted in some loss of test performance, preferentially affecting positive predictive rather than negative predictive values.

Conclusion

Using a clinical prediction rule composed of clinical variables available at birth, HC and HCF could be predicted with good test characteristics in preterm newborns. Further studies should evaluate the clinical value of these rules to guide early treatment individualisation.     

Relevance of Baseline Viral Genetic Heterogeneity and Host Factors for Treatment Outcome Prediction in Hepatitis C Virus 1b-Infected Patients

Background

Only about 50% of patients chronically infected with HCV genotype 1 (HCV-1) respond to treatment with pegylated interferon-alfa and ribavirin (dual therapy), and protease inhibitors have to be administered together with these drugs increasing costs and side-effects. We aimed to develop a predictive model of treatment response based on a combination of baseline clinical and viral parameters.

Methodology

Seventy-four patients chronically infected with HCV-1b and treated with dual therapy were studied (53 retrospectively −training group−, and 21 prospectively −validation group−). Host and viral-related factors (viral load, and genetic variability in the E1–E2, core and Interferon Sensitivity Determining Region) were assessed. Multivariate discriminant analysis and decision tree analysis were used to develop predictive models on the training group, which were then validated in the validation group.

Principal Findings

A multivariate discriminant predictive model was generated including the following variables in decreasing order of significance: the number of viral variants in the E1–E2 region, an amino acid substitution pattern in the viral core region, the IL28B polymorphism, serum GGT and ALT levels, and viral load. Using this model treatment outcome was accurately predicted in the training group (AUROC = 0.9444; 96.3% specificity, 94.7% PPV, 75% sensitivity, 81% NPV), and the accuracy remained high in the validation group (AUROC = 0.8148, 88.9% specificity, 90.0% PPV, 75.0% sensitivity, 72.7% NPV). A second model was obtained by a decision tree analysis and showed a similarly high accuracy in the training group but a worse reproducibility in the validation group (AUROC = 0.9072 vs. 0.7361, respectively).

Conclusions and Significance

The baseline predictive models obtained including both host and viral variables had a high positive predictive value in our population of Spanish HCV-1b treatment naïve patients. Accurately identifying those patients that would respond to the dual therapy could help reducing implementation costs and additional side effects of new treatment regimens.     

Prediction of Long-Term Mortality by Preoperative Health-Related Quality-of-Life in Elderly Onco-Surgical Patients

Objective

Aim of this study was to evaluate the association between preoperative health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and mortality in a cohort of elderly patients (>65 years) with gastrointestinal, gynecological and genitourinary carcinomas.

Design

Prospective cohort pilot study.

Setting

Tertiary university hospital in Germany.

Patients

Between June 2008 and July 2010 and after ethical committee approval and written informed consent, 126 patients scheduled for onco-surgery were included. Prior to surgery as well as 3 and 12 months postoperatively all participants completed the EORTC-QLQ-C30 questionnaire (measuring self-reported health-related quality of life). Additionally, demographic and clinical data including the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) were collected. Surgery and anesthesia were conducted according to the standard operating procedures. Primary endpoint was the cumulative mortality rate over 12 months after one year. Changes in Quality of life were considered as secondary outcome.

Results

Mortality after one year was 28%. In univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis baseline HRQoL self-reported cognitive function (OR per point: 0.98; CI 95% 0.96–0.99; p = 0.024) and higher symptom burden for appetite loss (per point: OR 1.02; CI 95% 1.00–1.03; p = 0.014) were predictive for long-term mortality. Additionally the MMSE as an objective measure of cognitive impairment (per point: OR 0.69; CI 95% 0.51–0.96; p = 0.026) as well as severity of surgery (OR 0.31; CI 95% 0.11–0.93; p = 0.036) were predictive for long-term mortality. Global health status 12 months after surgery was comparable to the baseline levels in survivors despite moderate impairments in other domains.

Conclusion

This study showed that objective and self-reported cognitive functioning together with appetite loss were prognostic for mortality in elderly cancer patients. In addition, impaired cognitive dysfunction and severity of surgery were predictive for one-year mortality whereas in this selected population scheduled for surgery age, gender, cancer site and metastases were not.     

The Diagnostic Value of the FIB-4 Index for Staging Hepatitis B-Related Fibrosis: A Meta-Analysis

Background

Liver fibrosis stage is an important factor in determining prognosis and need for treatment in patients infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV). Liver biopsies are typically used to assess liver fibrosis; however, noninvasive alternatives such as the FIB-4 index have also been developed.

Aims

To quantify the accuracy of the FIB-4 index in the diagnosis of HBV related fibrosis and cirrhosis.

Methods

A meta-analysis of studies comparing the diagnostic accuracy of the FIB-4 index vs. liver biopsy in HBV-infected patients was performed using studies retrieved from the following databases: PubMed, Ovid, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, the Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure and the Chinese Biology Medicine disc. A hierarchical summary receiver operating curves model and bivariate model were used to produce summary receiver operating characteristic curves and pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity. The heterogeneity was explored with meta-regression analysis. Publication bias was detected using Egger’s test and the trim and fill method.

Results

12 studies (N = 1,908) and 10 studies (N = 2,105) were included in the meta-analysis for significant fibrosis and cirrhosis, respectively. For significant fibrosis, the area under the hierarchical summary receiver operating curve (AUHSROC) was 0.78 (95% CI = 0.74–0.81). The recommended cutoff value was between 1.45 and 1.62, and the AUHSROC, summary sensitivity and specificity were 0.78 (95% CI = 0.74–0.81), 0.65 (95% CI = 0.56–0.73) and 0.77 (95% CI = 0.7–0.83), respectively. For cirrhosis, the AUHSROC was 0.89 (95% CI = 0.85–0.91). The recommended cutoff value was between 2.9 and 3.6, and the AUHSROC, summary sensitivity and specificity were 0.96 (95% CI = 0.92–1.00), 0.42 (95% CI = 0.36–0.48) and 0.96 (95% CI = 0.95–0.97), respectively. No publication bias was detected.

Conclusions

The FIB-4 index is valuable for detecting significant fibrosis and cirrhosis in HBV-infected patients, but has suboptimal accuracy in excluding fibrosis and cirrhosis.     

Customized Reference Ranges for Laboratory Values Decrease False Positive Alerts in Intensive Care Unit Patients

Background

Traditional electronic medical record (EMR) interfaces mark laboratory tests as abnormal based on standard reference ranges derived from healthy, middle-aged adults. This yields many false positive alerts with subsequent alert-fatigue when applied to complex populations like hospitalized, critically ill patients. Novel EMR interfaces using adjusted reference ranges customized for specific patient populations may ameliorate this problem.

Objective

To compare accuracy of abnormal laboratory value indicators in a novel vs traditional EMR interface.

Methods

Laboratory data from intensive care unit (ICU) patients consecutively admitted during a two-day period were recorded. For each patient, available laboratory results and the problem list were sent to two mutually blinded critical care experts, who marked the values about which they would like to be alerted. All disagreements were resolved by an independent super-reviewer. Based on this gold standard, we calculated and compared the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) of customized vs traditional abnormal value indicators.

Results

Thirty seven patients with a total of 1341 laboratory results were included. Experts’ agreement was fair (kappa = 0.39). Compared to the traditional EMR, custom abnormal laboratory value indicators had similar sensitivity (77% vs 85%, P = 0.22) and NPV (97.1% vs 98.6%, P = 0.06) but higher specificity (79% vs 61%, P<0.001) and PPV (28% vs 11%, P<0.001).

Conclusions

Reference ranges for laboratory values customized for an ICU population decrease false positive alerts. Disagreement among clinicians about which laboratory values should be indicated as abnormal limits the development of customized reference ranges.     

The Sensitivity and Specificity of Using a Computer Aided Diagnosis Program for Automatically Scoring Chest X-Rays of Presumptive TB Patients Compared with Xpert MTB/RIF in Lusaka Zambia

Objective

To determine the sensitivity and specificity of a Computer Aided Diagnosis (CAD) program for scoring chest x-rays (CXRs) of presumptive tuberculosis (TB) patients compared to Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert).

Method

Consecutive presumptive TB patients with a cough of any duration were offered digital CXR, and opt out HIV testing. CXRs were electronically scored as normal (CAD score ≤60) or abnormal (CAD score>60) using a CAD program. All patients regardless of CAD score were requested to submit a spot sputum sample for testing with Xpert and a spot and morning sample for testing with LED Fluorescence Microscopy-(FM).

Results

Of 350 patients with evaluable data, 291 (83.1%) had an abnormal CXR score by CAD. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of CXR compared to Xpert were 100% (95%CI 96.2–100), 23.2% (95%CI 18.2–28.9), 33.0% (95%CI 27.6–38.7) and 100% (95% 93.9–100), respectively. The area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) for CAD was 0.71 (95%CI 0.66–0.77). CXR abnormality correlated with smear grade (r = 0.30, p<0.0001) and with Xpert C_T(r = 0.37, p<0.0001).

Conclusions

To our knowledge this is the first time that a CAD program for TB has been successfully tested in a real world setting. The study shows that the CAD program had high sensitivity but low specificity and PPV. The use of CAD with digital CXR has the potential to increase the use and availability of chest radiography in screening for TB where trained human resources are scarce.     

A Predictive Model Combining Fecal Calgranulin B and Fecal Occult Blood Tests Can Improve the Diagnosis of Colorectal Cancer

Aim

Current fecal screening tools for colorectal cancer (CRC), such as fecal occult blood tests (FOBT), are limited by their low sensitivity. Calgranulin B (CALB) was previously reported as a candidate fecal marker for CRC. This study investigated whether a combination of the FOBT and fecal CALB has increased sensitivity and specificity for a diagnosis of CRC.

Materials and Methods

Patients with CRC (n = 175), and healthy individuals (controls; n = 151) were enrolled into the development (81 cases and 51 controls) and validation (94 cases and 100 controls) sets. Stool samples were collected before bowel preparation. CALB levels were determined by western blotting. FOBT and fecal CALB results were used to develop a predictive model based on logistic regression analysis. The benefit of adding CALB to a model with only FOBT was evaluated as an increased area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), partial AUC, and reclassification improvement (RI) in cases and controls, and net reclassification improvement (NRI).

Results

Mean CALB level was significantly higher in CRC patients than in controls (P<0.001). CALB was not associated with tumor stage or cancer site, but positivity on the FOBT was significantly higher in advanced than in earlier tumor stages. At a specificity of 90%, the cross-validated AUC and sensitivity were 89.81% and 82.72%, respectively, in the development set, and 92.74% and 79.79%, respectively, in the validation set. The incremental benefit of adding CALB to the model, as shown by the increase in AUC, had a p-value of 0.0499. RI in cases and controls and NRI all revealed that adding CALB significantly improved the prediction model.

Conclusion

A predictive model using a combination of FOBT and CALB may have greater sensitivity and specificity and AUC for predicting CRC than models using a single marker.     

Screening for Vulnerability in Older Cancer Patients: The ONCODAGE Prospective Multicenter Cohort Study

Background

Geriatric Assessment is an appropriate method for identifying older cancer patients at risk of life-threatening events during therapy. Yet, it is underused in practice, mainly because it is time- and resource-consuming. This study aims to identify the best screening tool to identify older cancer patients requiring geriatric assessment by comparing the performance of two short assessment tools the G8 and the Vulnerable Elders Survey (VES-13).

Patients and Methods

The diagnostic accuracy of the G8 and the (VES-13) were evaluated in a prospective cohort study of 1674 cancer patients accrued before treatment in 23 health care facilities. 1435 were eligible and evaluable. Outcome measures were multidimensional geriatric assessment (MGA), sensitivity (primary), specificity, negative and positive predictive values and likelihood ratios of the G8 and VES-13, and predictive factors of 1-year survival rate.

Results

Patient median age was 78.2 years (70-98) with a majority of females (69.8%), various types of cancer including 53.9% breast, and 75.8% Performance Status 0-1. Impaired MGA, G8, and VES-13 were 80.2%, 68.4%, and 60.2%, respectively. Mean time to complete G8 or VES-13 was about five minutes. Reproducibility of the two questionnaires was good. G8 appeared more sensitive (76.5% versus 68.7%, P =  0.0046) whereas VES-13 was more specific (74.3% versus 64.4%, P<0.0001). Abnormal G8 score (HR = 2.72), advanced stage (HR = 3.30), male sex (HR = 2.69) and poor Performance Status (HR = 3.28) were independent prognostic factors of 1-year survival.

Conclusion

With good sensitivity and independent prognostic value on 1-year survival, the G8 questionnaire is currently one of the best screening tools available to identify older cancer patients requiring geriatric assessment, and we believe it should be implemented broadly in daily practice. Continuous research efforts should be pursued to refine the selection process of older cancer patients before potentially life-threatening therapy.     

Modeling Disease Severity in Multiple Sclerosis Using Electronic Health Records

Objective

To optimally leverage the scalability and unique features of the electronic health records (EHR) for research that would ultimately improve patient care, we need to accurately identify patients and extract clinically meaningful measures. Using multiple sclerosis (MS) as a proof of principle, we showcased how to leverage routinely collected EHR data to identify patients with a complex neurological disorder and derive an important surrogate measure of disease severity heretofore only available in research settings.

Methods

In a cross-sectional observational study, 5,495 MS patients were identified from the EHR systems of two major referral hospitals using an algorithm that includes codified and narrative information extracted using natural language processing. In the subset of patients who receive neurological care at a MS Center where disease measures have been collected, we used routinely collected EHR data to extract two aggregate indicators of MS severity of clinical relevance multiple sclerosis severity score (MSSS) and brain parenchymal fraction (BPF, a measure of whole brain volume).

Results

The EHR algorithm that identifies MS patients has an area under the curve of 0.958, 83% sensitivity, 92% positive predictive value, and 89% negative predictive value when a 95% specificity threshold is used. The correlation between EHR-derived and true MSSS has a mean R² = 0.38±0.05, and that between EHR-derived and true BPF has a mean R² = 0.22±0.08. To illustrate its clinical relevance, derived MSSS captures the expected difference in disease severity between relapsing-remitting and progressive MS patients after adjusting for sex, age of symptom onset and disease duration (p = 1.56×10⁻¹²).

Conclusion

Incorporation of sophisticated codified and narrative EHR data accurately identifies MS patients and provides estimation of a well-accepted indicator of MS severity that is widely used in research settings but not part of the routine medical records. Similar approaches could be applied to other complex neurological disorders.     

Epicardial Adipose Tissue Thickness Correlates with the Presence and Severity of Angiographic Coronary Artery Disease in Stable Patients with Chest Pain

Objective

Epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) is suggested to correlate with metabolic risk factors and to promote plaque development in the coronary arteries. We sought to determine whether EAT thickness was associated or not with the presence and extent of angiographic coronary artery disease (CAD).

Methods

We measured epicardial fat thickness by computed tomography and assessed the presence and extent of CAD by coronary angiography in participants from the prospective EVASCAN study. The association of EAT thickness with cardiovascular risk factors, coronary artery calcification scoring and angiographic CAD was assessed using multivariate regression analysis.

Results

Of 970 patients (age 60.9 years, 71% male), 75% (n = 731) had CAD. Patients with angiographic CAD had thicker EAT on the left ventricle lateral wall when compared with patients without CAD (2.74±2.4 mm vs. 2.08±2.1 mm; p = 0.0001). The adjusted odds ratio (OR) for a patient with a LVLW EAT value ≥2.8 mm to have CAD was OR = 1.46 [1.03–2.08], p = 0.0326 after adjusting for risk factors. EAT also correlated with the number of diseased vessels (p = 0.0001 for trend). By receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, an EAT value ≥2.8 mm best predicted the presence of>50% diameter coronary artery stenosis, with a sensitivity and specificity of 46.1% and 66.5% respectively (AUC:0.58). Coronary artery calcium scoring had an AUC of 0.76.

Conclusion

Although left ventricle lateral wall EAT thickness correlated with the presence and extent of angiographic CAD, it has a low performance for the diagnosis of CAD.     

Phonatory Dysfunction as a Preclinical Symptom of Huntington Disease

Purpose

Although dysphonia has been shown to be a common sign of Huntington disease (HD), the extent of phonatory dysfunction in gene positive premanifest HD individuals remains unknown. The aim of the current study was to explore the possible occurrence of phonatory abnormalities in prodromal HD.

Method

Sustained vowel phonations were acquired from 28 premanifest HD individuals and 28 healthy controls of comparable age. Data were analysed acoustically for measures of several phonatory dimensions including airflow insufficiency, aperiodicity, irregular vibration of vocal folds, signal perturbations, increased noise, vocal tremor and articulation deficiency. A predictive model was built to find the best combination of acoustic features and estimate sensitivity/specificity for differentiation between premanifest HD subjects and controls. The extent of voice deficits according to a specific phonatory dimension was determined using statistical decision making theory. The results were correlated to global motor function, cognitive score, disease burden score and estimated years to disease onset.

Results

Measures of aperiodicity and increased noise were able to significantly differentiate between premanifest HD individuals and controls (p<0.01). The combination of these aspects of dysphonia led to a sensitivity of 91.5% and specificity of 79.2% to correctly distinguish speakers with premanifest HD from healthy individuals. Some form of disrupted phonatory function was revealed in 68% of our premanifest HD subjects, where 18% had one affected phonatory dimension and 50% showed impairment of two or more dimensions. A relationship between pitch control and cognitive score was also observed (r = −0.50, p = 0.007).

Conclusions

Phonatory abnormalities are detectable even the in premotor stages of HD. Speech investigation may have the potential to provide functional biomarkers of HD and could be included in future clinical trials and therapeutic interventions.     

Meta-Analysis: Narrow Band Imaging for Diagnosis of Gastric Intestinal Metaplasia

Background

Distinguishing early gastric cancer is challenging with current imaging techniques. Narrow band imaging (NBI) is effective for characterizing gastric lesions.

Objectives

The aim of this meta-analysis was to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of NBI in the gastric intestinal metaplasia (GIM).

Methods

We performed data analysis using Meta-DiSc (version 1.4) and STATA (version 11.0) software. To assess study quality and potential for bias, we used the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) tool.

Results

Six studies involving 347 patients were included. On a per-patient basis, the sensitivity of NBI for diagnosis of GIM was 0.65 (95% CI  =  0.56–0.74), and the specificity was 0.93 (95% CI  =  0.88–0.97). The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve was 0.8731. However, on a per-lesion basis, the sensitivity and specificity of NBI were 0.69 (95% CI  =  0.63–0.74) and 0.91 (95% CI  =  0.87–0.94), respectively. The SROC was 0.9009. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of magnification endoscopy (NBI-ME) were 0.76 (95% CI  =  0.61–0.87) and 0.89 (95% CI  =  0.80–0.94), respectively, on per-patient analysis. On a per-lesion basis, the pooled sensitivity and specificity of NBI-ME were 0.84 (95% CI  =  0.76–0.89) and 0.93 (95% CI  =  0.89–0.96), respectively. Heterogeneity was observed with an I² for diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) of 0.01% and 85.8%, respectively. There was no statistical significance for the evaluation of publication bias.

Conclusions

Our meta-analysis shows that NBI is a useful tool for differential diagnosis of GIM with relatively low sensitivity and high specificity.     

Impact of Age on the Cancer-Specific Survival of Patients with Localized Renal Cell Carcinoma: Martingale Residual and Competing Risks Analysis

Background

Age at diagnosis has been shown to be an independent prognostic factor of localized renal cell carcinoma (RCC) in several studies. We used contemporary statistical methods to reevaluate the effect of age on the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of localized RCC.

Methods and Findings

1,147 patients with localized RCC who underwent radical nephrectomy between 1993 and 2009 were identified in our four institutions. The association between age and CSS was estimated, and the potential threshold was identified by a univariate Cox model and by martingale residual analysis. Competing risks regression was used to identify the independent impact of age on CSS. The median age was 52 years (range, 19–84 years). The median follow-up was 61 months (range, 6–144 months) for survivors. A steep increasing smoothed martingale residual plot indicated an adverse prognostic effect of age on CSS. The age cut-off of 45 years was most predictive of CSS on univariate Cox analysis and martingale residual analysis (p = 0.005). Age ≤45 years was independently associated with a higher CSS rate in the multivariate Cox regression model (HR = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.05–2.40, p = 0.027) as well as in competing risks regression (HR = 3.60, 95% CI = 1.93–6.71, p = 0.001).

Conclusions

Increasing age was associated with a higher incidence of cancer-specific mortality of localized RCC. Age dichotomized at 45 years would maximize the predictive value of age on CSS, and independently predict the CSS of patients with localized RCC.     

Residual Disease and HPV Persistence after Cryotherapy for Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia Grade 2/3 in HIV-Positive Women in Kenya

Objective

To assess residual cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2/3 disease and clearance of high-risk (hr) human papillomavirus (HPV) infections at 6 months after cryotherapy among HIV-positive women.

Design

Follow-up study.

Methods

79 HIV-positive women received cryotherapy for CIN2/3 in Nairobi, Kenya, and underwent conventional cytology 6 months later. Biopsies were performed on high grade cytological lesions and hrHPV was assessed before (cervical cells and biopsy) and after cryotherapy (cells).

Results

At 6 months after cryotherapy CIN2/3 had been eliminated in 61 women (77.2%; 95% Confidence Interval, (CI): 66.4–85.9). 18 women (22.8%) had residual CIN2/3, and all these women had hrHPV at baseline. CD4 count and duration of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) were not associated with residual CIN2/3. CIN3 instead of CIN2 was the only significant risk factor for residual disease (odds ratio, OR vs CIN2 = 4.3; 95% CI: 1.2–15.0) among hrHPV-positive women after adjustment for age and HPV16 infection. Persistence of hrHPV types previously detected in biopsies was found in 77.5% of women and was associated with residual CIN2/3 (OR = 8.1, 95% CI: 0.9–70). The sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value of hrHPV test in detecting residual CIN2/3 were 0.94, 0.36, and 0.96 respectively.

Conclusions

Nearly one quarter of HIV-positive women had residual CIN2/3 disease at 6 months after cryotherapy, and the majority had persistent hrHPV. CD4 count and cART use were not associated with residual disease or hrHPV persistence. The value of hrHPV testing in the detection of residual CIN2/3 was hampered by a low specificity.     

Testing the Prognostic Accuracy of the Updated Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model

Background

We previously derived and validated a risk model to estimate mortality probability in children with septic shock (PERSEVERE; PEdiatRic SEpsis biomarkEr Risk modEl). PERSEVERE uses five biomarkers and age to estimate mortality probability. After the initial derivation and validation of PERSEVERE, we combined the derivation and validation cohorts (n = 355) and updated PERSEVERE. An important step in the development of updated risk models is to test their accuracy using an independent test cohort.

Objective

To test the prognostic accuracy of the updated version PERSEVERE in an independent test cohort.

Methods

Study subjects were recruited from multiple pediatric intensive care units in the United States. Biomarkers were measured in 182 pediatric subjects with septic shock using serum samples obtained during the first 24 hours of presentation. The accuracy of PERSEVERE 28-day mortality risk estimate was tested using diagnostic test statistics, and the net reclassification improvement (NRI) was used to test whether PERSEVERE adds information to a physiology-based scoring system.

Results

Mortality in the test cohort was 13.2%. Using a risk cut-off of 2.5%, the sensitivity of PERSEVERE for mortality was 83% (95% CI 62–95), specificity was 75% (68–82), positive predictive value was 34% (22–47), and negative predictive value was 97% (91–99). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.81 (0.70–0.92). The false positive subjects had a greater degree of organ failure burden and longer intensive care unit length of stay, compared to the true negative subjects. When adding PERSEVERE to a physiology-based scoring system, the net reclassification improvement was 0.91 (0.47–1.35; p<0.001).

Conclusions

The updated version of PERSEVERE estimates mortality probability reliably in a heterogeneous test cohort of children with septic shock and provides information over and above a physiology-based scoring system.     

Low Interleukin - 8 Level Predicts the Occurrence of the Postpericardiotomy Syndrome

Aims

The objective of this study was to investigate inflammatory markers of the postpericardiotomy syndrome (PPS) and to determine individuals prone to develop the PPS.

Methods and Results

The study included 75 patients with a stable coronary disease that had underwent coronary artery bypass surgery. Serum samples were collected prior to the surgery and on the 5th day after the operation, to measure the concentration of IL-8, IL-6, IL-1β, IL-10, TNF, IL-12p70. All included patients were screened for the PPS before discharge from the hospital and 6 months after the surgery. The 49 patients developed the PPS (65.4%), among them 42 (56%) patients had pleural effusion, and 23 (31%) had pericardial effusion. The cytokine analysis has shown an inverse correlation between IL-8 concentration before the surgery, and the occurrence of the PPS (p = 0.026). There were also positive correlations between the magnitude of increase of IL-8 and IL-1β concentrations on the 5th day after the surgery and the occurrence of the PPS (p = 0.006 and p = 0.049 respectively). Multivariate analysis revealed IL-8 concentration before surgery as an independent risk factor of the PPS development (HR = 0.976; 95%CI: 0.956–0.996, p = 0.02). Cut-off point was established to assess the predictive value of IL-8 concentration (21.1 pg/ml). The test parameters were: sensitivity: 62.5%, specificity: 75%, positive predictive value: 83% and negative predictive value: 50%. Clinical evaluation showed the relationship between the hemoglobin concentration before the surgery and the PPS occurrence (p = 0.01).

Conclusion

The IL-8 and IL-1β may participate in the postpericardiotomy syndrome pathogenesis, and the IL-8 concentration measurement may select patients with the risk of the PPS development.     

Prevalence of Hypertension in Indian Tribes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

Introduction

In India there is an increasing trend in hypertension prevalence among the general population. Studies have shown that tribal populations in India are also experiencing this burden.

Objective

The aim was to estimate the pooled prevalence of primary hypertension among adult tribal populations of India.

Methods

A systematic search was conducted in MEDLINE, IndMed, Web of Science, Google Scholar and major journals for studies published between 1981 and 2011. Two authors independently reviewed the studies, did quality assessment and extracted data in pre-coded spread-sheets. Pooled estimates of prevalence of hypertension were calculated using DerSimonian-Laird random effects model. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses and meta-regression were performed.

Results

Twenty studies or 53 subpopulations with 64 674 subjects were included in final review. The pooled estimate of hypertension prevalence was 16.1% (95% CI: 13.5, 19.2). There was significant heterogeneity among the studies (I² = 99% and Q = 4624.0, df  = 53, p<0.001). Subgroup analyses showed that year of study, acculturation status, special features, and BP measurement techniques significantly influenced prevalence, but after meta-regression analyses, ‘decade of study’ remained the only covariate that significantly and independently influenced prevalence (R² = 0.57, Q = 119.2, df  = 49, p value <0.001).

Conclusion

An increasing trend was found in the prevalence of hypertension in adult tribal populations across three decades. Although acculturation was probably the underlying agent that caused this increase, other unmeasured factors that need further research were also important. Concerned policy makers should focus on the changing health needs of tribal communities.     

Evaluation of the Diagnostic Performance of Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy in Brain Tumors: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Object

The aim of this study was to determine the suitability of magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) for screening brain tumors, based on a systematic review and meta-analysis of published data on the diagnostic performance of MRS.

Methods

The PubMed and PHMC databases were systematically searched for relevant studies up to December 2013. The sensitivities and specificities of MRS in individual studies were calculated and the pooled diagnostic accuracies, with 95% confidence intervals (CI), were assessed under a fixed-effects model.

Results

Twenty-four studies were included, comprising a total of 1013 participants. Overall, no heterogeneity of diagnostic effects was observed between studies. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of MRS were 80.05% (95% CI = 75.97%–83.59%) and 78.46% (95% CI: 73.40%–82.78%), respectively. The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.78. Stratified meta analysis showed higher sensitivity and specificity in child than adult. CSI had higher sensitivity and SV had higher specificity. Higher sensitivity and specificity were obtained in short TE value.

Conclusion

Although the qualities of the studies included in the meta-analysis were moderate, current evidence suggests that MRS may be a valuable adjunct to magnetic resonance imaging for diagnosing brain tumors, but requires selection of suitable technique and TE value.