Identifying and Targeting Mortality Disparities: A Framework for Sub-Saharan Africa Using Adult Mortality Data from South Africa

Background

Health inequities in developing countries are difficult to eradicate because of limited resources. The neglect of adult mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a particular concern. Advances in data availability, software and analytic methods have created opportunities to address this challenge and tailor interventions to small areas. This study demonstrates how a generic framework can be applied to guide policy interventions to reduce adult mortality in high risk areas. The framework, therefore, incorporates the spatial clustering of adult mortality, estimates the impact of a range of determinants and quantifies the impact of their removal to ensure optimal returns on scarce resources.

Methods

Data from a national cross-sectional survey in 2007 were used to illustrate the use of the generic framework for SSA and elsewhere. Adult mortality proportions were analyzed at four administrative levels and spatial analyses were used to identify areas with significant excess mortality. An ecological approach was then used to assess the relationship between mortality “hotspots” and various determinants. Population attributable fractions were calculated to quantify the reduction in mortality as a result of targeted removal of high-impact determinants.

Results

Overall adult mortality rate was 145 per 10,000. Spatial disaggregation identified a highly non-random pattern and 67 significant high risk local municipalities were identified. The most prominent determinants of adult mortality included HIV antenatal sero-prevalence, low SES and lack of formal marital union status. The removal of the most attributable factors, based on local area prevalence, suggest that overall adult mortality could be potentially reduced by ∼90 deaths per 10,000.

Conclusions

The innovative use of secondary data and advanced epidemiological techniques can be combined in a generic framework to identify and map mortality to the lowest administration level. The identification of high risk mortality determinants allows health authorities to tailor interventions at local level. This approach can be replicated elsewhere.     

Care Seeking Behaviour for Children with Suspected Pneumonia in Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with High Pneumonia Mortality

Pneumonia is the leading cause of childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Because effective antibiotic treatment exists, timely recognition of pneumonia and subsequent care seeking for treatment can prevent deaths. For six high pneumonia mortality countries in SSA we examined if children with suspected pneumonia were taken for care, and if so, from which type of care providers, using national survey data of 76530 children. We also assessed factors independently associated with care seeking from health providers, also known as ‘appropriate’ providers. We report important differences in care seeking patterns across these countries. In Tanzania 85% of children with suspected pneumonia were taken for care, whereas this was only 30% in Ethiopia. Most of the children living in these six countries were taken to a primary health care facility; 86, 68 and 59% in Ethiopia, Tanzania and Burkina Faso respectively. In Uganda, hospital care was sought for 60% of children. 16–18% of children were taken to a private pharmacy in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Tanzania and Nigeria. In Tanzania, children from the richest households were 9.5 times (CI 2.3–39.3) more likely to be brought for care than children from the poorest households, after controlling for the child’s age, sex, caregiver’s education and urban-rural residence. The influence of the age of a child, when controlling for sex, urban-rural residence, education and wealth, shows that the youngest children (<2 years) were more likely to be brought to a care provider in Nigeria, Ethiopia and DRC. Urban-rural residence was not significantly associated with care seeking, after controlling for the age and sex of the child, caregivers education and wealth. The study suggests that it is crucial to understand country-specific care seeking patterns for children with suspected pneumonia and related determinants using available data prior to planning programmatic responses.     

Assessing and Responding to Palliative Care Needs in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa: Results from a Model Intervention and Situation Analysis in Malawi

Introduction

Palliative care is rarely accessible in rural sub-Saharan Africa. Partners In Health and the Malawi government established the Neno Palliative Care Program (NPCP) to provide palliative care in rural Neno district. We conducted a situation analysis to evaluate early NPCP outcomes and better understand palliative care needs, knowledge, and preferences.

Methods

Employing rapid evaluation methodology, we collected data from 3 sources: 1) chart review of all adult patients from the NPCP’s first 9 months; 2) structured interviews with patients and caregivers; 3) semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders.

Results

The NPCP enrolled 63 patients in its first 9 months. Frequent diagnoses were cancer (n = 50, 79%) and HIV/AIDS (n = 37 of 61, 61%). Nearly all (n = 31, 84%) patients with HIV/AIDS were on antiretroviral therapy. Providers registered 112 patient encounters, including 22 (20%) home visits. Most (n = 43, 68%) patients had documented pain at baseline, of whom 23 (53%) were treated with morphine. A majority (n = 35, 56%) had ≥1 follow-up encounter. Mean African Palliative Outcome Scale pain score decreased non-significantly between baseline and follow-up (3.0 vs. 2.7, p = 0.5) for patients with baseline pain and complete pain assessment documentation. Providers referred 48 (76%) patients for psychosocial services, including community health worker support, socioeconomic assistance, or both. We interviewed 36 patients referred to the NPCP after the chart review period. Most had cancer (n = 19, 53%) or HIV/AIDS (n = 10, 28%). Patients frequently reported needing income (n = 24, 67%) or food (n = 22, 61%). Stakeholders cited a need to make integrated palliative care widely available.

Conclusions

We identified a high prevalence of pain and psychosocial needs among patients with serious chronic illnesses in rural Malawi. Early NPCP results suggest that comprehensive palliative care can be provided in rural Africa by integrating disease-modifying treatment and palliative care, linking hospital, clinic, and home-based services, and providing psychosocial support that includes socioeconomic assistance.     

Out-of-Pocket Expenditure on Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Rural Malawi

In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) the disease burden of chronic non-communicable diseases (CNCDs) is rising considerably. Given weaknesses in existing financial arrangements across SSA, expenditure on CNCDs is often borne directly by patients through out-of-pocket (OOP) payments. This study explored patterns and determinants of OOP expenditure on CNCDs in Malawi. We used data from the first round of a longitudinal household health survey conducted in 2012 on a sample of 1199 households in three rural districts in Malawi. We used a two-part model to analyze determinants of OOP expenditure on CNCDs. 475 respondents reported at least one CNCD. More than 60% of the 298 individuals who reported seeking care incurred OOP expenditure. The amount of OOP expenditure on CNCDs comprised 22% of their monthly per capita household expenditure. The poorer the household, the higher proportion of their monthly per capita household expenditure was spent on CNCDs. Higher severity of disease was significantly associated with an increased likelihood of incurring OOP expenditure. Use of formal care was negatively associated with the possibility of incurring OOP expenditure. The following factors were positively associated with the amount of OOP expenditure: being female, Alomwe and household head, longer duration of disease, CNCDs targeted through active screening programs, higher socio-economic status, household head being literate, using formal care, and fewer household members living with a CNCD within a household. Our study showed that, in spite of a context where care for CNCDs should in principle be available free of charge at point of use, OOP payments impose a considerable financial burden on rural households, especially among the poorest. This suggests the existence of important gaps in financial protection in the current coverage policy.     

Streptococcus pneumoniae Serotypes and Mortality in Adults and Adolescents in South Africa: Analysis of National Surveillance Data, 2003 - 2008

BackgroundAn association between pneumococcal serotypes and mortality has been suggested. We aimed to investigate this among individuals aged ≥15 years with invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in South Africa.MethodsIPD cases were identified through national laboratory-based surveillance at 25 sites, pre-pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction, from 2003–2008. We assessed the association between the 20 commonest serotypes and in-hospital mortality using logistic regression with serotype 4 (the third commonest serotype with intermediate case-fatality ratio (CFR)) as referent.ResultsAmong 3953 IPD cases, CFR was 55% (641/1166) for meningitis and 23% (576/2484) for bacteremia (p<0.001). Serotype 19F had the highest CFR (48%, 100/207), followed by serotype 23F (39%, 99/252) and serotype 1 (38%, 246/651). On multivariable analysis, factors independently associated with mortality included serotype 1 (OR 1.9, 95%CI 1.1–3.5) and 19F (OR 2.9, 95%CI 1.4–6.1) vs. serotype 4; increasing age (25–44 years, OR 1.8, 95%CI 1.0–3.0; 45–64 years, OR 3.6, 95%CI 2.0–6.4; ≥65 years, OR 5.2, 95%CI 1.9–14.1; vs. 15–24 years); meningitis (OR 4.1, 95%CI 3.0–5.6) vs. bacteremic pneumonia; and HIV infection (OR1.7, 95%CI 1.0–2.8). On stratified multivariate analysis, serotype 19F was associated with increased mortality amongst bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia cases, while no serotype was associated with increased mortality in meningitis cases.ConclusionMortality was increased in HIV-infected individuals, which may be reduced by increased antiretroviral therapy availability. Serotypes associated with increased mortality are included in the 10-and-13-valent PCV and may become less common in adults due to indirect effects following routine infant immunization.     

A Prospective Study of Mortality from Cryptococcal Meningitis following Treatment Induction with 1200mg Oral Fluconazole in Blantyre,Malawi

Objective

We have previously reported high ten-week mortality from cryptococcal meningitis in Malawian adults following treatment-induction with 800mg oral fluconazole (57% [33/58]). National guidelines in Malawi and other African countries now advocate an increased induction dose of 1200mg. We assessed whether this has improved outcomes.

Design

This was a prospective observational study of HIV-infected adults with cryptococcal meningitis confirmed by diagnostic lumbar puncture. Treatment was with fluconazole 1200mg/day for two weeks then 400mg/day for 8 weeks. Mortality within the first 10 weeks was the study end-point, and current results were compared with data from our prior patient cohort who started on fluconazole 800mg/day.

Results

47 participants received fluconazole monotherapy. Despite a treatment-induction dose of 1200mg, ten-week mortality remained 55% (26/47). This was no better than our previous study (Hazard Ratio [HR] of death on 1200mg vs. 800mg fluconazole: 1.29 (95% CI: 0.77–2.16, p = 0.332)). There was some evidence for improved survival in patients who had repeat lumbar punctures during early therapy to lower intracranial pressure (HR: 0.27 [95% CI: 0.07–1.03, p = 0.055]).

Conclusion

There remains an urgent need to identify more effective, affordable and deliverable regimens for cryptococcal meningitis.     

Prevalence and Correlates of Bacterial Vaginosis in Different Sub-Populations of Women in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Clinical development of vaginally applied products aimed at reducing the transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections, has highlighted the need for a better characterisation of the vaginal environment. We set out to characterise the vaginal environment in women in different settings in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

A longitudinal study was conducted in Kenya, Rwanda and South-Africa. Women were recruited into pre-defined study groups including adult, non-pregnant, HIV-negative women; pregnant women; adolescent girls; HIV-negative women engaging in vaginal practices; female sex workers; and HIV-positive women. Consenting women were interviewed and underwent a pelvic exam. Samples of vaginal fluid and a blood sample were taken and tested for bacterial vaginosis (BV), HIV and other reproductive tract infections (RTIs). This paper presents the cross-sectional analyses of BV Nugent scores and RTI prevalence and correlates at the screening and the enrolment visit.

Results

At the screening visit 38% of women had BV defined as a Nugent score of 7–10, and 64% had more than one RTI (N. gonorrhoea, C. trachomatis, T. vaginalis, syphilis) and/or Candida. At screening the likelihood of BV was lower in women using progestin-only contraception and higher in women with more than one RTI. At enrolment, BV scores were significantly associated with the presence of prostate specific antigen (PSA) in the vaginal fluid and with being a self-acknowledged sex worker. Further, sex workers were more likely to have incident BV by Nugent score at enrolment.

Conclusions

Our study confirmed some of the correlates of BV that have been previously reported but the most salient finding was the association between BV and the presence of PSA in the vaginal fluid which is suggestive of recent unprotected sexual intercourse.     

Recognising and Treatment Seeking for Acute Bacterial Meningitis in Adults and Children in Resource-Poor Settings: A Qualitative Study

Objective

High mortality burden from Acute Bacterial Meningitis (ABM) in resource-poor settings has been frequently blamed on delays in treatment seeking. We explored treatment-seeking pathways from household to primary health care and referral for ABM in Malawi.

Design

A cross-sectional qualitative study using narrative in-depth interviews, semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions.

Participants

Adults and children with proven and probable acute bacterial meningitis and/or their carers; adults from urban and peri-urban communities; and primary health care workers (HCW).

Setting

Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital (QECH), urban and peri-urban private and government primary health centres and communities in Blantyre District, Malawi.

Results

Whilst communities associated meningitis with a stiff neck, in practice responses focused on ability to recognise severe illness. Misdiagnosis of meningitis as malaria was common. Subsequent action by families depended on the extent to which normal social life was disrupted by the illness and depended on the age and social position of the sufferer. Seizures and convulsions were considered severe symptoms but were often thought to be malaria. Presumptive malaria treatment at home often delayed formal treatment seeking. Further delays in treatment seeking were caused by economic barriers and perceptions of inefficient or inadequate primary health services.

Conclusions

Given the difficulties in diagnosis of meningitis where malaria is common, any intervention for ABM at primary level must focus on recognising severe illness, and encouraging action at the household, community and primary health levels. Overcoming barriers to recognition and social constraints at community level require broad community-based strategies and may provide a route to addressing poor clinical outcomes.     

Monitoring of Antiretroviral Therapy and Mortality in HIV Programmes in Malawi,South Africa and Zambia: Mathematical Modelling Study

Objectives

Mortality in patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) is higher in Malawi and Zambia than in South Africa. We examined whether different monitoring of ART (viral load [VL] in South Africa and CD4 count in Malawi and Zambia) could explain this mortality difference.

Design:

Mathematical modelling study based on data from ART programmes.

Methods

We used a stochastic simulation model to study the effect of VL monitoring on mortality over 5 years. In baseline scenario A all parameters were identical between strategies except for more timely and complete detection of treatment failure with VL monitoring. Additional scenarios introduced delays in switching to second-line ART (scenario B) or higher virologic failure rates (due to worse adherence) when monitoring was based on CD4 counts only (scenario C). Results are presented as relative risks (RR) with 95% prediction intervals and percent of observed mortality difference explained.

Results

RRs comparing VL with CD4 cell count monitoring were 0.94 (0.74–1.03) in scenario A, 0.94 (0.77–1.02) with delayed switching (scenario B) and 0.80 (0.44–1.07) when assuming a 3-times higher rate of failure (scenario C). The observed mortality at 3 years was 10.9% in Malawi and Zambia and 8.6% in South Africa (absolute difference 2.3%). The percentage of the mortality difference explained by VL monitoring ranged from 4% (scenario A) to 32% (scenarios B and C combined, assuming a 3-times higher failure rate). Eleven percent was explained by non-HIV related mortality.

Conclusions

VL monitoring reduces mortality moderately when assuming improved adherence and decreased failure rates.     

Rejection in Bargaining Situations: An Event-Related Potential Study in Adolescents and Adults

The neural correlates of rejection in bargaining situations when proposing a fair or unfair offer are not yet well understood. We measured neural responses to rejection and acceptance of monetary offers with event-related potentials (ERPs) in mid-adolescents (14–17 years) and early adults (19–24 years). Participants played multiple rounds of the Ultimatum Game as proposers, dividing coins between themselves and a second player (responder) by making a choice between an unfair distribution (7 coins for proposer and 3 for responder; 7/3) and one of two alternatives: a fair distribution (5/5) or a hyperfair distribution (3/7). Participants mostly made fair offers (5/5) when the alternative was unfair (7/3), but made mostly unfair offers (7/3) when the alternative was hyperfair (3/7). When participants’ fair offers (5/5; alternative was 7/3) were rejected this was associated with a larger Medial Frontal Negativity (MFN) compared to acceptance of fair offers and rejection of unfair offers (7/3; alternative was 3/7). Also, the MFN was smaller after acceptance of unfair offers (7/3) compared to rejection. These neural responses did not differ between adults and mid-adolescents, suggesting that the MFN reacts as a neural alarm system to social prediction errors which is already prevalent during adolescence.     

Application of GM crops in Sub-Saharan Africa: lessons learned from Green Revolution

While the Green Revolution has been successful in some regions like South and East Asia, it could hardly address any achievement in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This paper tries to draw a picture on lessons learned from the failures of this revolution that should be taken into account before implementing the so-called Gene Revolution in the SSA region. After scrutinizing the failures and the pros and cons of GM crops in the region, the paper introduces some potentials for improving the malnutrition situation in SSA through launching a successful GM technology. However, it remains doubtful whether this technology can improve the situation of small-scale farmers as long as they receive no financial support from their national governments. Therefore, before any intervention, the socio-economic and environmental impacts of GM technology need to be carefully addressed in the framework of a series of risk assessment studies. Besides, some sort of multi-stakeholder dialog (from small-scale farmers to consumers) involving public–private sector and non-governmental organizations should be heated up at both national and regional levels with regard to the myths and truths of this technology.     

Determinants of Serum PCBs in Adolescents and Adults: Regression Tree Analysis and Linear Regression Analysis

Regression tree analysis, a non-parametric method, was undertaken to identify predictors of the serum concentration of polychlorinated biphenyls (sum of marker PCB ¹ ABBREVIATIONS: BMI: body-mass index, CV: cross validation, ln: natural logarithm, ns: not significant, PCAHs: polychlorinated aromatic hydrocarbons, PCBs: polychlorinated biphenyls, R² _a: adjusted coefficient of determination, VIF: variance inflation factor. View all notes 138, 153, and 180) in humans. This method was applied on biomonitoring data of the Flemish Environment and Health study (2002–2006) and included 1679 adolescents and 1583 adults. Potential predictor variables were collected via a self-administered questionnaire, assessing information on lifestyle, food intake, use of tobacco and alcohol, residence history, health, education, hobbies, and occupation. Relevant predictors of human PCB exposure were identified with regression tree analysis using ln-transformed sum of PCBs, separately in adolescents and adults. The obtained results were compared with those from a standard linear regression approach. The results of the non-parametric analysis confirm the selection of the covariates in the multiple regression models. In both analyses, blood fat, gender, age, body-mass index (BMI) or change in bodyweight, former breast-feeding, and a number of nutritional factors were identified as statistically significant predictors in the serum PCB concentration, either in adolescents, in adults or in both. Regression trees can be used as an explorative analysis in combination with multiple linear regression models, where relationships between the determinants and the biomarkers can be quantified.     

Clinico-Pathological Discrepancies in the Diagnosis of Causes of Maternal Death in Sub-Saharan Africa: Retrospective Analysis

Background

Maternal mortality is a major public-health problem in developing countries. Extreme differences in maternal mortality rates between developed and developing countries indicate that most of these deaths are preventable. Most information on the causes of maternal death in these areas is based on clinical records and verbal autopsies. Clinical diagnostic errors may play a significant role in this problem and might also have major implications for the evaluation of current estimations of causes of maternal death.

Methods and Findings

A retrospective analysis of clinico-pathologic correlation was carried out, using necropsy as the gold standard for diagnosis. All maternal autopsies (n = 139) during the period from October 2002 to December 2004 at the Maputo Central Hospital, Mozambique were included and major diagnostic discrepancies were analyzed (i.e., those involving the cause of death). Major diagnostic errors were detected in 56 (40.3%) maternal deaths. A high rate of false negative diagnoses was observed for infectious diseases, which showed sensitivities under 50%: HIV/AIDS-related conditions (33.3%), pyogenic bronchopneumonia (35.3%), pyogenic meningitis (40.0%), and puerperal septicemia (50.0%). Eclampsia, was the main source of false positive diagnoses, showing a low predictive positive value (42.9%).

Conclusions

Clinico-pathological discrepancies may have a significant impact on maternal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa and question the validity of reports based on clinical data or verbal autopsies. Increasing clinical awareness of the impact of obstetric and nonobstetric infections with their inclusion in the differential diagnosis, together with a thorough evaluation of cases clinically thought to be eclampsia, could have a significant impact on the reduction of maternal mortality.     

Mortality Trends from 2003 to 2009 among Adolescents and Young Adults in Rural Western Kenya Using a Health and Demographic Surveillance System

Background

Targeted global efforts to improve survival of young adults need information on mortality trends; contributions from health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) are required.

Methods and Findings

This study aimed to explore changing trends in deaths among adolescents (15–19 years) and young adults (20–24 years), using census and verbal autopsy data in rural western Kenya using a HDSS. Mid-year population estimates were used to generate all-cause mortality rates per 100,000 population by age and gender, by communicable (CD) and non-communicable disease (NCD) causes. Linear trends from 2003 to 2009 were examined. In 2003, all-cause mortality rates of adolescents and young adults were 403 and 1,613 per 100,000 population, respectively, among females; and 217 and 716 per 100,000, respectively, among males. CD mortality rates among females and males 15–24 years were 500 and 191 per 100,000 (relative risk [RR] 2.6; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.7–4.0; p<0.001). NCD mortality rates in same aged females and males were similar (141 and 128 per 100,000, respectively; p = 0.76). By 2009, young adult female all-cause mortality rates fell 53% (χ² for linear trend 30.4; p<0.001) and 61.5% among adolescent females (χ² for linear trend 11.9; p<0.001). No significant CD mortality reductions occurred among males or for NCD mortality in either gender. By 2009, all-cause, CD, and NCD mortality rates were not significantly different between males and females, and among males, injuries equalled HIV as the top cause of death.

Conclusions

This study found significant reductions in adolescent and young adult female mortality rates, evidencing the effects of targeted public health programmes, however, all-cause and CD mortality rates among females remain alarmingly high. These data underscore the need to strengthen programmes and target strategies to reach both males and females, and to promote NCD as well as CD initiatives to reduce the mortality burden amongst both gender.     

An Occurrence of Diarrheal Cases Associated with Group C Rotavirus in Adults

Six of the 23 college students who joined a group trip in February of 1991 developed acute nonbacterial gastroenteritis with severe diarrhea. The causal agent was identified as group C rotaviruses by electron microscopy (EM), immune-EM (IEM) and the molecular examinations including polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (PAGE) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) on virus particles detected in the extract of watery fecal specimens of the patients. The patients positive for virus isolation showed significant increase in IEM antibody to the isolated virus in their paired sera. These findings suggest that the group C rotavirus is an important etiological agent of diarrhea and may also cause serious food-borne diarrheal disease in adults.