Predicting Mortality of Incident Dialysis Patients in Taiwan - A Longitudinal Population-Based Study

Background

Comorbid conditions are highly prevalent among patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and index score is a predictor of mortality in dialysis patients. The aim of this study is to perform a population-based cohort study to investigate the survival rate by age and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) in incident dialysis patients.

Methods

Using the catastrophic illness registration of the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database for all patients from 1 January 1998 to 31 December 2008, individuals newly diagnosed with ESRD and receiving dialysis for more than 90 days were eligible for our study. Individuals younger than 18 years or renal transplantation patients either before or after dialysis were excluded. We calculated the CCI, age-weighted CCI by Deyo-Charlson method according to ICD-9 code and categorized CCI into six groups as index scores <3, 4–6, 7–9, 10–12, 13–15, >15. Cox regression models were used to analyze the association between age, CCI and survival, and the risk markers of survival.

Results

There were 79,645 incident dialysis patients, whose mean age (± SD) was 60.96 (±13.92) years; 51.43% of patients were women and 51.2% were diabetic. In cox proportional hazard models and stratifying by age, older patients had significantly higher mortality than younger patients. The mortality risk was higher in persons with higher CCI as compared with low CCI. Mortality increased steadily with higher age or comorbidity both for unadjusted and for adjusted models. For all age groups, mortality rates increased in different CCI groups with the highest rates occurring in the oldest age groups.

Conclusions

Age and CCI are both strong predictors of survival in Taiwan. The older age or higher comorbidity index in incident dialysis patient is associated with lower long-term survival rates. These population-based estimates may assist clinicians who make decisions when patients need long-term dialysis.     

Predicting Survival from Telomere Length versus Conventional Predictors: A Multinational Population-Based Cohort Study

Telomere length has generated substantial interest as a potential predictor of aging-related diseases and mortality. Some studies have reported significant associations, but few have tested its ability to discriminate between decedents and survivors compared with a broad range of well-established predictors that include both biomarkers and commonly collected self-reported data. Our aim here was to quantify the prognostic value of leukocyte telomere length relative to age, sex, and 19 other variables for predicting five-year mortality among older persons in three countries. We used data from nationally representative surveys in Costa Rica (N = 923, aged 61+), Taiwan (N = 976, aged 54+), and the U.S. (N = 2672, aged 60+). Our study used a prospective cohort design with all-cause mortality during five years post-exam as the outcome. We fit Cox hazards models separately by country, and assessed the discriminatory ability of each predictor. Age was, by far, the single best predictor of all-cause mortality, whereas leukocyte telomere length was only somewhat better than random chance in terms of discriminating between decedents and survivors. After adjustment for age and sex, telomere length ranked between 15th and 17th (out of 20), and its incremental contribution was small; nine self-reported variables (e.g., mobility, global self-assessed health status, limitations with activities of daily living, smoking status), a cognitive assessment, and three biological markers (C-reactive protein, serum creatinine, and glycosylated hemoglobin) were more powerful predictors of mortality in all three countries. Results were similar for cause-specific models (i.e., mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all other causes combined). Leukocyte telomere length had a statistically discernible, but weak, association with mortality, but it did not predict survival as well as age or many other self-reported variables. Although telomere length may eventually help scientists understand aging, more powerful and more easily obtained tools are available for predicting survival.     

Lean Body Mass Predicts Long-Term Survival in Chinese Patients on Peritoneal Dialysis

Background

Reduced lean body mass (LBM) is one of the main indicators in malnutrition inflammation syndrome among patients on dialysis. However, the influence of LBM on peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients’ outcomes and the factors related to increasing LBM are seldom reported.

Methods

We enrolled 103 incident PD patients between 2002 and 2003, and followed them until December 2011. Clinical characteristics, PD-associated parameters, residual renal function, and serum chemistry profiles of each patient were collected at 1 month and 1 year after initiating PD. LBM was estimated using creatinine index corrected with body weight. Multiple linear regression analysis, Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, and Cox regression proportional hazard analysis were used to define independent variables and compare survival between groups.

Results

Using the median LBM value (70% for men and 64% for women), patients were divided into group 1 (n = 52; low LBM) and group 2 (n = 51; high LBM). Group 1 patients had higher rates of peritonitis (1.6 vs. 1.1/100 patient months; p<0.05) and hospitalization (14.6 vs. 9.7/100 patient months; p<0.05). Group 1 patients also had shorter overall survival and technique survival (p<0.01). Each percentage point increase in LBM reduced the hazard ratio for mortality by 8% after adjustment for diabetes, age, sex, and body mass index (BMI). Changes in residual renal function and protein catabolic rate were independently associated with changes in LBM in the first year of PD.

Conclusions

LBM serves as a good parameter in addition to BMI to predict the survival of patients on PD. Preserving residual renal function and increasing protein intake can increase LBM.     

Elderly Peritoneal Dialysis Compared with Elderly Hemodialysis Patients and Younger Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: Competing Risk Analysis of a Korean Prospective Cohort Study

The outcomes of peritoneal dialysis (PD) in elderly patients have not been thoroughly investigated. We aimed to investigate the clinical outcomes and risk factors associated with PD in elderly patients. We conducted a prospective observational nationwide adult end-stage renal disease (ESRD) cohort study in Korea from August 2008 to March 2013. Among incident patients (n = 830), patient and technical survival rate, quality of life, and Beck’s Depression Inventory (BDI) scores of elderly PD patients (≥65 years, n = 95) were compared with those of PD patients aged ≤49 years (n = 205) and 50~64 years (n = 192); and elderly hemodialysis (HD) patients (n = 315). The patient death and technical failure were analyzed by cumulative incidence function. Competing risk regressions were used to assess the risk factors for survival. The patient survival rate of elderly PD patients was inferior to that of younger PD patients (P<0.001). However, the technical survival rate was similar (P = 0.097). Compared with elderly HD patients, the patient survival rate did not differ according to dialysis modality (P = 0.987). Elderly PD patients showed significant improvement in the BDI scores, as compared with the PD patients aged ≤49 years (P = 0.003). Low albumin, diabetes and low residual renal function were significant risk factors for the PD patient survival; and peritonitis was a significant risk factor for technical survival. Furthermore, low albumin and hospitalization were significant risk factors of patient survival among the elderly. The overall outcomes were similar between elderly PD and HD patients. PD showed the benefit in BDI and quality of life in the elderly. Additionally, the technical survival rate of elderly PD patients was similar to that of younger PD patients. Taken together, PD may be a comparable modality for elderly ESRD patients.     

The Impact of Hospice Care on Survival and Healthcare Costs for Patients with Lung Cancer: A National Longitudinal Population-Based Study in Taiwan

Background

The healthcare costs of cancer care are highest in the last month of life. The effect of hospice care on end-of-life (EOL) healthcare costs is not clearly understood.

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of hospice care on survival and healthcare costs for lung cancer patients in their final month of life.

Methods

We adopted Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Claims Database to analyze data for 3399 adult lung cancer patients who died in 1997–2011. A logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the predictors of high healthcare cost, defined as costs falling above the 90th percentile. Patients who received hospice cares were assigned to a hospice (H) group and those who did not were assigned to a non-hospice (non-H) group.

Results

The patients in the H group had a longer mean (median) survival time than those in the non-H group did (1.40 ± 1.61 y (0.86) vs. 1.10 ± 1.47 (0.61), p<0.001). The non-H group had a lower mean healthcare cost than the H group (US $1,821 ± 2,441 vs. US $1,839 ± 1,638, p<0.001). And, there were a total of 340 patients (10%) with the healthcare costs exceeding the 90th percentile (US $4,721) as the cutoff value of high cost. The non-H group had a higher risk of high cost than the H group because many more cases in the non-H group had lower costs. Moreover, the risk of high health care costs were predicted for patients who did not receive hospice care (odds ratio [OR]: 3.68, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.44–5.79), received chemotherapy (OR: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.18–1.96) and intubation (OR: 2.63, 95% CI: 1.64–4.16), and those who had more emergency department visits (OR: 1.78, 95% CI: 1.24–2.52), longer hospital admission in days (OR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.07–1.09), and received radiotherapy (OR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.00–1.78). Lower risks of high health care costs were observed in patients with low socioeconomic status (OR: 0.58, 95% CI: 0.40–0.83), or previous employment (OR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.47–0.92). After propensity-score matching, the patients of the non-H group had a higher mean cost and a higher risk of high cost. Similar results were obtained from logistic regression analysis in propensity score-matched patients.

Conclusions

The survival of the hospice group was longer than non-H group, and patients in the non-H group were 3.74 times more likely to have high healthcare costs at EOL. The positive predictors for high health care costs were patients who did not receive hospice care, who received chemotherapy and intubation, who had more emergency department visits and longer hospital admission, and who received radiotherapy. Negative predictors were patients who had a low socioeconomic status or previous employment. The issue of how to reduce the high health care costs for patients with lung cancer in the last month of life is a challenge for policy makers and health care providers.     

Effect of Age on Survival Outcome in Operated and Non-Operated Patients with Colon Cancer: A Population-Based Study

Objective

To know the effect of age on survival outcome in operated and non-operated patients with colon cancer.

Methods

From the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, we identified 123,356 patients with colon cancer who were diagnosed between 1996 and 2005, grouped them as older or younger than 40 years and analyzed their 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) data, along with some risk factors, using Kaplan–Meier methods and multivariable Cox regression models.

Results

The younger group had significantly higher pathological grades (P<0.001), more mucinous and signet-ring histology (P<0.001), advanced AJCC stage (P<0.001), and were more likely to undergo surgery (P<0.001). For surgically treated patients, age did not significantly affect 5-year CSS (younger: 66.7%; older: 67.3%; P = 0.86). Further analysis showed that age was an independent prognostic factor in stage I–IV disease (stage I: P = 0.001; P<0.001 for stages II–IV, in both uni- and multivariate analyses), but not for patients with unknown disease stage (P = 0.52). For non-surgically treated patients, age significantly affected 5-year CSS (younger: 16.2%; older: 12.9%; P<0.001) in univariate analysis; and was an independent prognostic factor (P<0.001) in multivariate analysis.

Conclusion

The CSS rate for younger CC patients was at least as high as for older patients, although they presented with higher proportions of unfavorable factors and more advanced disease.     

Survival on Home Dialysis in New Zealand

Background

New Zealand (NZ) has a high prevalence of both peritoneal dialysis (PD) and home haemodialysis (HD) relative to other countries, and probably less selection bias. We aimed to determine if home dialysis associates with better survival than facility HD by simultaneous comparisons of the three modalities.

Methods

We analysed survival by time-varying dialysis modality in New Zealanders over a 15-year period to 31-Dec-2011, adjusting for patient co-morbidity by Cox proportional hazards multivariate regression.

Results

We modelled 6,419 patients with 3,254 deaths over 20,042 patient-years of follow-up. Patients treated with PD and facility HD are similar; those on home HD are younger and healthier. Compared to facility HD, home dialysis (as a unified category) associates with an overall 13% lower mortality risk. Home HD associates with a 52% lower mortality risk. PD associates with a 20% lower mortality risk in the early period (<3 years) that is offset by a 33% greater mortality risk in the late period (>3 years), with no overall net effect. There was effect modification and less observable benefit associated with PD in those with diabetes mellitus, co-morbidity, and in NZ Maori and Pacific People. There was no effect modification by age or by era.

Conclusion

Our study supports the culture of home dialysis in NZ, and suggests that the extent and duration of survival benefit associated with early PD may be greater than appreciated. We are planning further analyses to exclude residual confounding from unmeasured co-morbidity and other sociodemographic factors using database linkage to NZ government datasets. Finally, our results suggest further research into the practice of PD in NZ Maori and Pacific People, as well as definitive study to determine the best timing for switching from PD in the late phase.     

Sarcoidosis in Patients with Psoriasis: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Purpose

Psoriasis is a chronic inflammatory disease characterized by a systemic immunological response which is mainly driven by activated T helper (Th) 1 and Th17 lymphocytes. Like psoriasis, sarcoidosis is a chronic inflammatory disorder with Th1/Th17-driven inflammation. Therefore, we investigated the risk of sarcoidosis in patients with psoriasis compared to the background population in a nationwide cohort.

Methods

The study included the entire Danish population aged ≥10 years followed from 1^st January 1997 until diagnosis of sarcoidosis, death or 31^st December 2011. Patients with a history of psoriasis and/or sarcoidosis at baseline were excluded. Information on comorbidity and concomitant medication was identified by individual-level linkage of administrative registers. Incidence rates of sarcoidosis were calculated and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated by multivariable Cox regression models adjusted for age, gender, comorbidity, medications and socioeconomic status.

Results

A total of 6,043,518 subjects were eligible for analysis. In the study period 70,125 patients with new-onset psoriasis, including 11,834 patients with severe psoriasis, were identified. The overall incidence rates of sarcoidosis were 1.18, 2.22, and 4.06 per 10,000 person-years for the reference population (9,717 cases), mild psoriasis (78 cases) and severe psoriasis (22 cases), respectively. Compared to the reference population, the age- and gender-adjusted HRs for sarcoidosis were increased in patients with psoriasis with HR 1.49 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18–1.87) and HR 2.51 (CI 1.64–3.85) for those with mild and severe disease, respectively.

Conclusion

In this nationwide cohort, psoriasis was associated with a disease severity-dependent increased risk of sarcoidosis.     

Sexuality and Affection among Elderly German Men and Women in Long-Term Relationships: Results of a Prospective Population-Based Study

Satisfaction with sexual activity i.e. sexual satisfaction and the importance of sexuality and affection were analysed using data from the German “Interdisciplinary Longitudinal Study of Adult Development” (ILSE). At three measurement points, 1993–1995, 1997–1998, and 2004–2006 i.e. subjects'' ages of 63, 67, and 74 years, participants'' reports about their affection and sexual activity were collected. The sample of completed records used for this study consisted of 194 urban non-institutionalised participants, 68% male, all living with partners. Median levels of sexual satisfaction were reported, fluctuating between the measurement points of ages 63 to 74. Between baseline, first and second follow-up no differences were found in levels of sexual satisfaction, though at measurement points age 63 and 67 women were more satisfied than men. When measured at age 74, affection was given a higher priority than sexual activity. Although men and women reported similar priorities, sexual activity and affection were more important for men than for women. Satisfaction within the relationship can be predicted by the importance of affection, but not by that of sexual activity. Our results confirm the thesis of the ‘second language of sexuality’: for humans in their later years affection seems to be more important than for younger individuals.     

Survival Advantage of Peritoneal Dialysis Relative to Hemodialysis in the Early Period of Incident Dialysis Patients: A Nationwide Prospective Propensity-Matched Study in Korea

Background

The impact of dialysis modality on survival is still somewhat controversial. Given possible differences in patients’ characteristics and the cause and rate of death in different countries, the issue needs to be evaluated in Korean cohorts.

Methods

A nationwide prospective observational cohort study ({"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00931970","term_id":"NCT00931970"}}NCT00931970) was performed to compare survival between peritoneal dialysis (PD) and hemodialysis (HD). A total of 1,060 end-stage renal disease patients in Korea who began dialysis between September 1, 2008 and June 30, 2011 were followed through December 31, 2011.

Results

The patients (PD, 30.6%; HD, 69.4%) were followed up for 16.3±7.9 months. PD patients were significantly younger, less likely to be diabetic, with lower body mass index, and larger urinary volume than HD patients. Infection was the most common cause of death. Multivariate Cox regression with the entire cohort revealed that PD tended to be associated with a lower risk of death compared to HD [hazard ratio (HR) 0.63, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.36–1.08]. In propensity score matched pairs (n = 278 in each modality), cumulative survival probabilities for PD and HD patients were 96.9% and 94.1% at 12 months (P = 0.152) and 94.3% and 87.6% at 24 months (P = 0.022), respectively. Patients on PD had a 51% lower risk of death compared to those on HD (HR 0.49, 95% CI 0.25–0.97).

Conclusions

PD exhibits superior survival to HD in the early period of dialysis, even after adjusting for differences in the patients’ characteristics between the two modalities. Notably, the most common cause of death was infection in this Korean cohort.     

Incidence and Predictors of Multimorbidity in the Elderly: A Population-Based Longitudinal Study

Background

We aimed to calculate 3-year incidence of multimorbidity, defined as the development of two or more chronic diseases in a population of older people free from multimorbidity at baseline. Secondly, we aimed to identify predictors of incident multimorbidity amongst life-style related indicators, medical conditions and biomarkers.

Methods

Data were gathered from 418 participants in the first follow up of the Kungsholmen Project (Stockholm, Sweden, 1991–1993, 78+ years old) who were not affected by multimorbidity (149 had none disease and 269 one disease), including a social interview, a neuropsychological battery and a medical examination.

Results

After 3 years, 33.6% of participants who were without disease and 66.4% of those with one disease at baseline, developed multimorbidity: the incidence rate was 12.6 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 9.2–16.7) and 32.9 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 28.1–38.3), respectively. After adjustments, worse cognitive function (OR, 95% CI, for 1 point lower Mini-Mental State Examination: 1.22, 1.00–1.48) was associated with increased risk of multimorbidity among subjects with no disease at baseline. Higher age was the only predictor of multimorbidity in persons with one disease at baseline.

Conclusions

Multimorbidity has a high incidence at old age. Mental health-related symptoms are likely predictors of multimorbidity, suggesting a strong impact of mental disorders on the health of older people.     

Thiazolidinediones and Risk of Long-Term Dialysis in Diabetic Patients with Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Thiazolidinediones (TZDs) reduce urinary albumin excretion and proteinuria in diabetic nephropathy. The effect of TZDs on hard renal outcome in diabetic patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unknown. We investigate the association of TZDs and risk of long-term dialysis or death in diabetic patients with advanced CKD. The nationwide population-based cohort study was conducted using Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database. From January 2000 to June 2009, 12350 diabetic patients with advanced CKD (serum creatinine levels greater than 6 mg/dL but not yet receiving renal replacement therapy) were selected for the study. We used multivariable Cox regression models and a propensity score-based matching technique to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for development of long-term dialysis and the composite outcome of long-term dialysis or death for TZD users (n=1224) as compared to nonusers (n=11126). During a median follow-up of 6 months, 8270 (67.0%) patients required long-term dialysis and 2593 (21.0%) patients died before starting long-term dialysis. Using propensity score matched analysis, we found TZD users were associated with a lower risk for long-term dialysis (HR, 0.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74-0.86) and the composite outcome of long-term dialysis or death (HR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.80-0.91). The results were consistent across most patient subgroups. Use of TZDs among diabetic patients with advanced CKD was associated with lower risk for progression to end-stage renal disease necessitating long-term dialysis or death. Further randomized controlled studies are required to validate this association.     

Breast Cancer Survival in Germany: A Population-Based High Resolution Study from Saarland

Population-based survival studies of breast cancer patients are commonly restricted to age- and stage-specific analyses. This study from Germany aimed at extending available population-based survival data on further prognostic cancer characteristics such as tumor grade, hormone receptor status and human epidermal growth factor receptor type 2 (HER2/neu) expression. Data from the population-based Saarland Cancer Registry including female patients diagnosed with invasive breast cancer between 2000 and 2009 were included. Period analysis methodology and regression modelling were used to obtain estimates of 5-year relative survival and tumor related excess risks in 2005-2009. Overall age standardized 5-year relative survival was 83%. In addition to age and stage, tumor grade and hormone receptor status were independent predictors of 5-year relative survival. Detailed analyses by age, stage, morphology, tumor grade, hormone receptor status and HER2/neu expression consistently revealed lower survival of patients with high grade, hormone receptor negative or HER2/neu positive cancers and patients aged 70 years or older. This high resolution study extends available population-based survival data of breast cancer patients. Particular efforts should be made to overcome the persisting large survival deficits, which were observed for elderly patients in all clinical subgroups.     

Excess Long-Term Mortality following Non-Variceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background

It is unclear whether an upper gastrointestinal bleed is an isolated gastrointestinal event or an indicator of a deterioration in a patient''s overall health status. Therefore, we investigated the excess causes of death in individuals after a non-variceal bleed compared with deaths in a matched sample of the general population.

Methods and Findings

Linked longitudinal data from the English Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES) data, General Practice Research Database (GPRD), and Office of National Statistics death register were used to define a cohort of non-variceal bleeds between 1997 and 2010. Controls were matched at the start of the study by age, sex, practice, and year. The excess risk of each cause of death in the 5 years subsequent to a bleed was then calculated whilst adjusting for competing risks using cumulative incidence functions.16,355 patients with a non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleed were matched to 81,523 controls. The total 5-year risk of death due to gastrointestinal causes (malignant or non-malignant) ranged from 3.6% (≤50 years, 95% CI 3.0%–4.3%) to 15.2% (≥80 years, 14.2%–16.3%), representing an excess over controls of between 3.6% (3.0%–4.2%) and 13.4% (12.4%–14.5%), respectively. In contrast the total 5-year risk of death due to non-gastrointestinal causes ranged from 4.1% (≤50 years, 3.4%–4.8%) to 46.6% (≥80 years, 45.2%–48.1%), representing an excess over controls of between 3.8% (3.1%–4.5%) and 19.0% (17.5%–20.6%), respectively. The main limitation of this study was potential misclassification of the exposure and outcome; however, we sought to minimise this by using information derived across multiple linked datasets.

Conclusions

Deaths from all causes were increased following an upper gastrointestinal bleed compared to matched controls, and over half the excess risk of death was due to seemingly unrelated co-morbidity. A non-variceal bleed may therefore warrant a careful assessment of co-morbid illness seemingly unrelated to the bleed. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Increased Healthcare Service Utilizations for Patients with Dementia: A Population-Based Study

Background

The majority of previous studies investigating the health care utilization of people with dementia were conducted in Western societies. There is little information on the economic burden on the healthcare system attributable to dementia in Asian countries. This study thus investigated differences in utilization of healthcare services between subjects with and those without a diagnosis of dementia using Taiwan’s National Health Insurance population-based database.

Methods

This study comprised 5,666 subjects with a dementia diagnosis and 5,666 age- and gender-matched comparison subjects without a dementia diagnosis. We individually followed each subject for a 1-year period starting from their index date to evaluate their healthcare resource utilization. Healthcare resource utilization included the number of outpatient visits and inpatient days, and the mean costs of outpatient and inpatient treatments. In addition, we divided healthcare resource utilization into psychiatric and non-psychiatric services.

Results

As for utilization of psychiatric services, subjects with a dementia diagnosis had significantly more outpatient visits (2.2 vs. 0.3, p<0.001) and significantly higher outpatient costs (US$124 vs. US$16, p<0.001) than comparison subjects. For non-psychiatric services, subjects with a dementia diagnosis also had significantly more outpatient visits (34.4 vs. 31.6, p<0.001) and significantly higher outpatient costs (US$1754 vs. US$1322, p<0.001) than comparison subjects. For all healthcare services, subjects with a dementia diagnosis had significantly more outpatient visits (36.7 vs. 32.0, p<0.001) and significantly higher outpatient costs (US$1878 vs. US$1338, p<0.001) than comparison subjects. Furthermore, the total cost was about 2-fold greater for subjects with a dementia diagnosis than for comparison subjects (US$3997 vs. US$2409, p<0.001).

Conclusions

We concluded that subjects who had received a clinical dementia diagnosis had significantly higher utilization of all healthcare services than comparison subjects.     

The Risk of Asthma in Patients with Ankylosing Spondylitis: A Population-Based Cohort Study

BackgroundThe relationship between asthma and ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is controversial. We examined the risk of asthma among AS patients in a nationwide population.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from the National Health Insurance (NHI) system of Taiwan. The cohort included 5,974 patients newly diagnosed with AS from 2000 to 2010. The date of diagnosis was defined as the index date. A 4-fold of general population without AS was randomly selected frequency matched by age, gender and the index year. The occurrence and hazard ratio (HR) of asthma were estimated by the end of 2011.ResultsThe overall incidence of asthma was 1.74 folds greater in the AS cohort than in the non-AS cohort (8.26 versus 4.74 per 1000 person-years) with a multivariable Cox method measured adjusted HR of 1.54 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.34–1.76). The adjusted HR of asthma associated with AS was higher in women (1.59; 95% CI, 1.33–1.90), those aged 50–64 years (1.66; 95% CI, 1.31–2.09), or those without comorbidities (1.82; 95% CI, 1.54–2.13).ConclusionPatients with AS are at a higher risk of developing asthma than the general population, regardless of gender and age. The pathophysiology needs further investigation.     

The Impact of Dialysis-Requiring Acute Kidney Injury on Long-Term Prognosis of Patients Requiring Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation: Nationwide Population-Based Study

Background

Prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) is increasingly common worldwide, consuming enormous healthcare resources. Factors that modify PMV outcome are still obscure.

Methods

We selected patients without preceding mechanical ventilation within the one past year and who developed PMV during index admission in Taiwan''s National Health Insurance (NHI) system during 1998–2007 for comparison of mortality and resource use. They were divided into three groups: (1) patients with end-stage renal diseases (ESRD) before the index admission for PMV onset; (2) patients with dialysis-requiring acute kidney injury (AKI-dialysis) during the hospitalization course; and (3) patients without AKI or with non dialysis-requiring AKI during the hospitalization course (non-AKI). We used a random-effects logistic regression model to identify factors associated with mortality.

Results

Compared with the other two groups, patients with AKI-dialysis had significantly longer mechanical ventilation, more frequent use of vasopressors, longer intensive care unit/hospital stay and higher inpatient expenditures during the index admission. Relative to non-AKI patients, patients with AKI-dialysis had an elevated mortality hazard; the adjusted relative risk ratios were 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI]:1.46–1.56), 1.27 (95% CI: 1.23–1.32), and 1.10 (95% CI: 1.08–1.12) for mortality rates at discharge, 3 months, and 4 years after PMV, respectively. Patients with AKI-dialysis also consumed significantly higher total in-patient expenditure than the other two patient groups (p<0.001).

Conclusions

Among patients that need PMV care during an admission, the presence of de novo AKI requiring dialysis significantly increased short and long term mortality, and demand for health care resources.     

Early Complications Following Oesophagectomy for Cancer in Relation to Long-Term Healthcare Utilisation: A Prospective Population-Based Cohort Study

Background

Little is known about how early postoperative complications after oesophagectomy for cancer influence healthcare utilisation in the long-term. We hypothesised that these complications also increase healthcare utilisation long after the recovery period.

Methods

This was a prospective, nationwide Swedish population-based cohort study of patients who underwent curatively intended oesophagectomy for cancer in 2001-2005 and survived at least 1 year postoperatively (n = 390). Total days of in-hospitalisation, number of hospitalisations and number of visits to the outpatient clinic within 5 years of surgery were analysed using quasi-Poisson models with adjustment for patient, tumour and treatment characteristics and are expressed as incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

There was an increased in-hospitalisation period 1-5 years after surgery in patients with more than 1 complication (IRR 1.5, 95% CI 1.0-2.4). The IRR for the number of hospitalisations by number of complications was 1.1 (95% CI 0.7-1.6), and 1.2 (95% CI 0.9-1.6) for number of outpatient visits in patients with more than 1 complication. The IRR for in-hospitalisation period 1-5 years following oesophagectomy was 1.8 (95% CI 1.0-3.0) for patients with anastomotic insufficiency and 1.5 (95% CI 0.9-2.5) for patients with cardiovascular or cerebrovascular complications. We found no association with number of hospitalisations (IRR 1.2, 95% CI 0.7-2.0) or number of outpatient visits (IRR 1.3, 95% CI 0.9-1.7) after anastomotic insufficiency, or after cardiovascular or cerebrovascular complications (IRR 1.2, 95% CI 0.7-1.9) and (IRR 1.1, 95% CI 0.8-1.5) respectively.

Conclusion

This study showed an increased total in-hospitalisation period 1-5 years after oesophagectomy for cancer in patients with postoperative complications, particularly following anastomotic insufficiency.     

Life Expectancy and Treatment Patterns in Elderly Patients With Low-Risk Papillary Thyroid Cancer: A Population-Based Analysis

ObjectiveGuidelines endorse active surveillance for low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), but this is not commonly utilized. Those with limited life expectancy due to age and comorbidity may be best suited for active surveillance given their higher likelihood of other-cause mortality compared to disease-specific mortality.MethodsSurveillance, epidemiology, and end results-Medicare was queried for patients >65 years with T1, N0, M0 PTC who received surgery. We evaluated the overall survival, disease-specific survival (DSS), and survival based on tumor size and extent of surgery (hemi- vs total thyroidectomy). We created a competing risk model to identify the cumulative incidence of other-cause mortality to define patient groups with life expectancies of less than 10 and 15 years.ResultsA total of 3280 patients were included. The 20-year overall survival and DSS were 38.2% and 98.5%, respectively. DSS was comparable between patients based on tumor size and surgery. The cancer cohort had better survival compared to matched controls (P < .001). Life expectancy was less than 15 years for any patient aged >80 years regardless of Charlson comorbidity score (CCS ≥ 0) and any patient aged >70 years with CCS ≥ 1. Life expectancy was less than 10 years for any patient a >80 years with CCS ≥ 1 and aged >70 years with CCS ≥ 3.ConclusionOlder patients with comorbidities have limited life expectancies but excellent DSS from low-risk PTC. Incorporating life expectancy into management decisions and guidelines would likely promote selection of less aggressive management for populations that are most suited for this approach.