The future of South East Asian rainforests in a changing landscape and climate

With a focus on the Danum Valley area of Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, this special issue has as its theme the future of tropical rainforests in a changing landscape and climate. The global environmental context to the issue is briefly given before the contents and rationale of the issue are summarized. Most of the papers are based on research carried out as part of the Royal Society South East Asia Rainforest Research Programme. The issue is divided into five sections: (i) the historical land-use and land management context; (ii) implications of land-use change for atmospheric chemistry and climate change; (iii) impacts of logging, forest fragmentation (particularly within an oil palm plantation landscape) and forest restoration on ecosystems and their functioning; (iv) the response and resilience of rainforest systems to climatic and land-use change; and (v) the scientific messages and policy implications arising from the research findings presented in the issue.     

Biomineralization in bryozoans: present,past and future

Many animal phyla have the physiological ability to produce biomineralized skeletons with functional roles that have been shaped by natural selection for more than 500 million years. Among these are bryozoans, a moderately diverse phylum of aquatic invertebrates with a rich fossil record and importance today as bioconstructors in some shallow‐water marine habitats. Biomineralizational patterns and, especially, processes are poorly understood in bryozoans but are conventionally believed to be similar to those of the related lophotrochozoan phyla Brachiopoda and Mollusca. However, bryozoan skeletons are more intricate than those of these two phyla. Calcareous skeletons have been acquired independently in two bryozoan clades – Stenolaemata in the Ordovician and Cheilostomata in the Jurassic – providing an evolutionary replicate. This review aims to highlight the importance of biomineralization in bryozoans and focuses on their skeletal ultrastructures, mineralogy and chemistry, the roles of organic components, the evolutionary history of bimineralization in bryozoans with respect to changes in seawater chemistry, and the impact of contemporary global changes, especially ocean acidification, on bryozoan skeletons. Bryozoan skeletons are constructed from three different wall types (exterior, interior and compound) differing in the presence/absence and location of organic cuticular layers. Skeletal ultrastructures can be classified into wall‐parallel (i.e. laminated) and wall‐perpendicular (i.e. prismatic) fabrics, the latter apparently found in only one of the two biomineralizing clades (Cheilostomata), which is also the only clade to biomineralize aragonite. A plethora of ultrastructural fabrics can be recognized and most occur in combination with other fabrics to constitute a fabric suite. The proportion of aragonitic and bimineralic bryozoans, as well as the Mg content of bryozoan skeletons, show a latitudinal increase into the warmer waters of the tropics. Responses of bryozoan mineralogy and skeletal thickness to oscillations between calcite and aragonite seas through geological time are equivocal. Field and laboratory studies of living bryozoans have shown that predicted future changes in pH (ocean acidification) combined with global warming are likely to have detrimental effects on calcification, growth rate and production of polymorphic zooids for defence and reproduction, although some species exhibit reasonable levels of resilience. Some key questions about bryozoan biomineralization that need to be addressed are identified.     

The future of the Amazon: new perspectives from climate, ecosystem and social sciences

The potential loss or large-scale degradation of the tropical rainforests has become one of the iconic images of the impacts of twenty-first century environmental change and may be one of our century's most profound legacies. In the Amazon region, the direct threat of deforestation and degradation is now strongly intertwined with an indirect challenge we are just beginning to understand: the possibility of substantial regional drought driven by global climate change. The Amazon region hosts more than half of the world's remaining tropical forests, and some parts have among the greatest concentrations of biodiversity found anywhere on Earth. Overall, the region is estimated to host about a quarter of all global biodiversity. It acts as one of the major 'flywheels' of global climate, transpiring water and generating clouds, affecting atmospheric circulation across continents and hemispheres, and storing substantial reserves of biomass and soil carbon. Hence, the ongoing degradation of Amazonia is a threat to local climate stability and a contributor to the global atmospheric climate change crisis. Conversely, the stabilization of Amazonian deforestation and degradation would be an opportunity for local adaptation to climate change, as well as a potential global contributor towards mitigation of climate change. However, addressing deforestation in the Amazon raises substantial challenges in policy, governance, sustainability and economic science. This paper introduces a theme issue dedicated to a multidisciplinary analysis of these challenges.     

Extent and ecological consequences of hunting in Central African rainforests in the twenty-first century

Humans have hunted wildlife in Central Africa for millennia. Today, however, many species are being rapidly extirpated and sanctuaries for wildlife are dwindling. Almost all Central Africa''s forests are now accessible to hunters. Drastic declines of large mammals have been caused in the past 20 years by the commercial trade for meat or ivory. We review a growing body of empirical data which shows that trophic webs are significantly disrupted in the region, with knock-on effects for other ecological functions, including seed dispersal and forest regeneration. Plausible scenarios for land-use change indicate that increasing extraction pressure on Central African forests is likely to usher in new worker populations and to intensify the hunting impacts and trophic cascade disruption already in progress, unless serious efforts are made for hunting regulation. The profound ecological changes initiated by hunting will not mitigate and may even exacerbate the predicted effects of climate change for the region. We hypothesize that, in the near future, the trophic changes brought about by hunting will have a larger and more rapid impact on Central African rainforest structure and function than the direct impacts of climate change on the vegetation. Immediate hunting regulation is vital for the survival of the Central African rainforest ecosystem.     

Altitudinal patterns of moth diversity in tropical and subtropical Australian rainforests

Altitudinal gradients are an excellent study tool to help understand the mechanisms shaping community assembly. We established a series of altitudinal gradients along the east coast of Australia to describe how the distribution of a hyper‐diverse herbivore group (night‐flying Lepidoptera) changes across an environmental gradient in subtropical and tropical rainforests. Two transects were in subtropical rainforest in the same bioregion, one in south‐east Queensland (28.7°S) and one in north east New South Wales (29.7°S). Two were in tropical rainforest, one in mid‐east Queensland (21.1°S) and one in the Wet Tropics of northern Queensland (17.5°S). Replicate plots were established in altitudinal bands separated by 200 m. Canopy and understorey moths were sampled at the beginning and end of the wet season using automatic Pennsylvania light traps. We sorted a total of 93 400 individuals, belonging to 3035 species. The two subtropical transects in the same region showed similar patterns of turnover across altitude, with the most distinctive assemblage occurring at the highest altitude. Moth assemblages in the tropical transects tended to show distinct ‘lowland’ and ‘upland’ communities. For species that were common across several of the transects, many were found at lower altitudes in the subtropics and higher altitudes in the tropics, suggesting they are sensitive to environmental conditions, and track their physiological envelopes across latitudes. These results suggest ubiquitous altitudinal stratification in tropical and subtropical Australian rainforests. The marked response of species to latitude and altitude demonstrates they are sensitive to climatic variables and can be used as indicators to understand future community responses to climate change.     

Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future

Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local- and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400–500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records.     

Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests

African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions.     

Climate change, human land use and future fires in the Amazon

There is increasing consensus that the global climate will continue to warm over the next century. The biodiversity-rich Amazon forest is a region of growing concern because many global climate model (GCM) scenarios of climate change forecast reduced precipitation and, in some cases, coupled vegetation models predict dieback of the forest. To date, fires have generally been spatially co-located with road networks and associated human land use because almost all fires in this region are anthropogenic in origin. Climate change, if severe enough, could alter this situation, potentially changing the fire regime to one of increased fire frequency and severity for vast portions of the Amazon forest. High moisture contents and dense canopies have historically made Amazonian forests extremely resistant to fire spread. Climate will affect the fire situation in the Amazon directly, through changes in temperature and precipitation, and indirectly, through climate-forced changes in vegetation composition and structure. The frequency of drought will be a prime determinant of both how often forest fires occur and how extensive they become. Fire risk management needs to take into account landscape configuration, land cover types and forest disturbance history as well as climate and weather. Maintaining large blocks of unsettled forest is critical for managing landscape level fire in the Amazon. The Amazon has resisted previous climate changes and should adapt to future climates as well if landscapes can be managed to maintain natural fire regimes in the majority of forest remnants.     

The past,present, and future of coral heat stress studies

The global loss and degradation of coral reefs, as a result of intensified frequency and severity of bleaching events, is a major concern. Evidence of heat stress affecting corals through loss of symbionts and consequent coral bleaching was first reported in the 1930s. However, it was not until the 1998 major global bleaching event that the urgency for heat stress studies became internationally recognized. Current efforts focus not only on examining the consequences of heat stress on corals but also on finding strategies to potentially improve thermal tolerance and aid coral reefs survival in future climate scenarios. Although initial studies were limited in comparison with modern technological tools, they provided the foundation for many of today's research methods and hypotheses. Technological advancements are providing new research prospects at a rapid pace. Understanding how coral heat stress studies have evolved is important for the critical assessment of their progress. This review summarizes the development of the field to date and assesses avenues for future research.     

Climate change reduces resilience to fire in subalpine rainforests

Climate change is affecting the distribution of species and the functioning of ecosystems. For species that are slow growing and poorly dispersed, climate change can force a lag between the distributions of species and the geographic distributions of their climatic envelopes, exposing species to the risk of extinction. Climate also governs the resilience of species and ecosystems to disturbance, such as wildfire. Here we use species distribution modelling and palaeoecology to assess and test the impact of vegetation–climate disequilibrium on the resilience of an endangered fire‐sensitive rainforest community to fires. First, we modelled the probability of occurrence of Athrotaxis spp. and Nothofagus gunnii rainforest in Tasmania (hereon “montane rainforest”) as a function of climate. We then analysed three pollen and charcoal records spanning the last 7,500 cal year BP from within both high (n = 1) and low (n = 2) probability of occurrence areas. Our study indicates that climatic change between 3,000 and 4,000 cal year bp induced a disequilibrium between montane rainforests and climate that drove a loss of resilience of these communities. Current and future climate change are likely to shift the geographic distribution of the climatic envelopes of this plant community further, suggesting that current high‐resilience locations will face a reduction in resilience. Coupled with the forecast of increasing fire activity in southern temperate regions, this heralds a significant threat to this and other slow growing, poorly dispersed and fire sensitive forest systems that are common in the southern mid to high latitudes.     

Emergent freeze and fire disturbance dynamics in temperate rainforests

The coastal temperate rainforests of South and North America are part of the most biomass dense forest biome on the planet. They are also subject to rapid climatic shifts and, subsequently, new disturbance processes – snow loss‐driven mortality and the emergence of fire in historically non‐fire‐exposed areas. Here, we compare and contrast Southern and Northern Hemisphere coastal temperate rainforests of the Americas, two of the largest examples of the biome, via synthesis of current literature, future climate expectations and new downscaling of a global fire model. In terms of snow loss, a rapid decline in winter snow is leading to mass mortality of certain conifer species in the Northern Hemisphere rainforests. High‐elevation Southern Hemisphere forests, which are beginning to see similar declines in snow, may be vulnerable in the future, especially bogs and high‐water content soils. Southern Hemisphere forests are seeing the invasion of fire as an ecological force at mid‐to‐high latitudes, a shift not yet observed in the north but which may become more prominent with ongoing climate change. We suggest that research should focus on the flammability of seral vegetation and bogs under future climate scenarios in both regions. By comparing these two drivers of change across similar gradients in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, this work points to the potential for emerging change in unexpected places in both regions. There is a clear benefit to conceptualising the coastal temperate rainforests of the Americas as two examples of the biome which can inform the other, as change is proceeding in similar directions but at different rates in each region.     

Using climatic suitability thresholds to identify past,present and future population viability

Often climatic niche models predict that any change in climatic conditions will impact species abundance or distribution. However, the accuracy of models that just incorporate climatic information to predict future species habitat use is widely debated. Alternatively, environmental conditions may simply need to be above some minimum threshold of climatic suitability, at which point, other factors drive population size. Using the example of nesting sites of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) in the Mediterranean (n = 105), we developed climatic niche models to examine whether a climatic suitability threshold could be identified as a climatic indicator in order for large populations of a widespread species to exist. We then assessed the climatic suitability of sites above and below this threshold in the past (∼1900) and future (∼2100). Most large sites that are currently above the climatic threshold were above the threshold in the past and future, particularly when future nesting seasonality shifted to start 1–2 months earlier. Our analyses highlight the importance of future phenological shifts for maintaining suitability. Our results provide a positive outlook for sea turtle conservation, suggesting that climatic conditions may remain suitable in the future at sites that currently support large nesting populations. Our study also provides an alternative way of interpreting the outputs of climatic niche models, by generating a threshold as an index of a minimum climatic suitability required to sustain large populations. This type of approach offers the possibility to benefit from information provided by climate-driven models, while reducing their inherent uncertainties.     

Examples of phenological change, past and present, in UK farming

This paper examines a large number of agricultural and other phenological records kept by a farmer in Sussex, UK from 1980 to 2000. Twenty five of the 29 events were earlier in 1990‐2000 than in 1980‐1989. The average advancement of all 29 events was 5.5 days at a time when January‐March mean temperature increased by 1.4°C. In comparing the events with monthly mean temperatures, 18 of the events were significantly negatively related to temperatures of the three calendar months preceding the mean event date. Response rates to temperature varied between 4 and 12 days earlier for each °C warmer. A comparison with historical farming records reveals that many of the current farming events appear as responsive to temperature now as they were 200 years ago.     

Evolutionary context for understanding and manipulating plant responses to past, present and future atmospheric [CO2

Variation in atmospheric [CO(2)] is a prominent feature of the environmental history over which vascular plants have evolved. Periods of falling and low [CO(2)] in the palaeo-record appear to have created selective pressure for important adaptations in modern plants. Today, rising [CO(2)] is a key component of anthropogenic global environmental change that will impact plants and the ecosystem goods and services they deliver. Currently, there is limited evidence that natural plant populations have evolved in response to contemporary increases in [CO(2)] in ways that increase plant productivity or fitness, and no evidence for incidental breeding of crop varieties to achieve greater yield enhancement from rising [CO(2)]. Evolutionary responses to elevated [CO(2)] have been studied by applying selection in controlled environments, quantitative genetics and trait-based approaches. Findings to date suggest that adaptive changes in plant traits in response to future [CO(2)] will not be consistently observed across species or environments and will not be large in magnitude compared with physiological and ecological responses to future [CO(2)]. This lack of evidence for strong evolutionary effects of elevated [CO(2)] is surprising, given the large effects of elevated [CO(2)] on plant phenotypes. New studies under more stressful, complex environmental conditions associated with climate change may revise this view. Efforts are underway to engineer plants to: (i) overcome the limitations to photosynthesis from today's [CO(2)] and (ii) benefit maximally from future, greater [CO(2)]. Targets range in scale from manipulating the function of a single enzyme (e.g. Rubisco) to adding metabolic pathways from bacteria as well as engineering the structural and functional components necessary for C(4) photosynthesis into C(3) leaves. Successfully improving plant performance will depend on combining the knowledge of the evolutionary context, cellular basis and physiological integration of plant responses to varying [CO(2)].     

Evolution and Conservation of Central African Biodiversity: Priorities for Future Research and Education in the Congo Basin and Gulf of Guinea

The tropical forests of the Congo Basin and Gulf of Guinea harbor some of the greatest terrestrial and aquatic biological diversity in the world. However, our knowledge of the rich biological diversity of this region and the evolutionary processes that have shaped it remains limited, as is our understanding of the capacity for species to adapt or otherwise respond to current and projected environmental change. In this regard, research efforts are needed to increase current scientific knowledge of this region's biodiversity, identify the drivers of past diversification, evaluate the potential for species to adapt to environmental change and identify key populations for future conservation. Moreover, when evolutionary research is combined with ongoing environmental monitoring efforts, it can also provide an important set of tools for assessing and mitigating the impacts of development activities. Building on a set of recommendations developed at an international workshop held in Gabon in 2011, we highlight major areas for future evolutionary research that could be directly tied to conservation priorities for the region. These research priorities are centered around five disciplinary themes: (1) documenting and discovering biodiversity; (2) identifying drivers of evolutionary diversification; (3) monitoring environmental change; (4) understanding community and ecosystem level processes; (5) investigating the ecology and epidemiology of disease from an evolutionary perspective (evolutionary epidemiology). Furthermore, we also provide an overview of the needs and priorities for biodiversity education and training in Central Africa.     

State and evolution of the African rainforests between 1990 and 2010

This paper presents a map of Africa''s rainforests for 2005. Derived from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer data at a spatial resolution of 250 m and with an overall accuracy of 84%, this map provides new levels of spatial and thematic detail. The map is accompanied by measurements of deforestation between 1990, 2000 and 2010 for West Africa, Central Africa and Madagascar derived from a systematic sample of Landsat images—imagery from equivalent platforms is used to fill gaps in the Landsat record. Net deforestation is estimated at 0.28% yr⁻¹ for the period 1990–2000 and 0.14% yr⁻¹ for the period 2000–2010. West Africa and Madagascar exhibit a much higher deforestation rate than the Congo Basin, for example, three times higher for West Africa and nine times higher for Madagascar. Analysis of variance over the Congo Basin is then used to show that expanding agriculture and increasing fuelwood demands are key drivers of deforestation in the region, whereas well-controlled timber exploitation programmes have little or no direct influence on forest-cover reduction at present. Rural and urban population concentrations and fluxes are also identified as strong underlying causes of deforestation in this study.     

The contribution of mass drug administration to global health: past,present and future

Mass drug administration (MDA) is a means of delivering safe and inexpensive essential medicines based on the principles of preventive chemotherapy, where populations or sub-populations are offered treatment without individual diagnosis. High-coverage MDA in endemic areas aims to prevent and alleviate symptoms and morbidity on the one hand and can reduce transmission on the other, together improving global health. MDA is the recommended strategy of the World Health Organisation to control or eliminate several neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). More than 700 million people now receive these essential NTD medicines annually. The combined cost of integrated NTD MDA has been calculated to be in the order of $0.50 per person per year. Activities have recently been expanded due, in part, to the proposed attempt to eliminate certain NTDs in the coming two decades. More than 1.9 billion people need to receive MDA annually across several years if these targets are to be met. Such extensive coverage will require additional avenues of financial support, expanded monitoring and evaluation focusing on impact and drug efficacy, as well as new diagnostic tools and social science strategies to encourage adherence. MDA is a means to help reduce the burden of disease, and hence poverty, among the poorest sector of populations. It has already made significant improvements to global health and productivity and has the potential for further successes, particularly where incorporated into sanitation and education programmes. However logistical, financial and biological challenges remain.     

Freshwater crayfish invasions in South Africa: past,present and potential future

Freshwater crayfish invasions have been studied around the world, but less so in Africa, a continent devoid of native freshwater crayfish. The present study reviews historical and current information on alien freshwater crayfish species introduced into South Africa and aims to indicate which areas are at risk from invasion. As is the case elsewhere, South Africans have shown a keen interest in both farming and keeping freshwater crayfish as pets, which has resulted in Cherax cainii, Cherax destructor, Cherax quadricarinatus and Procambarus clarkii being introduced to the country. There is evidence of successful establishment in the wild for C. quadricarinatus and P. clarkii in different parts of the country. Species distribution models suggest that the eastern part of the country and parts of the Eastern and Western Cape are at higher risk of invasion. At present, illegal translocations represent the most likely pathway of crayfish spread in South Africa. A continued risk of invasion by freshwater crayfish species in South Africa is highlighted, which reinforces the need for more research, as well as for strong mitigation measures, such as stronger policing of existing regulations, management or eradication where feasible and public education.     

Chitosomes: past, present and future

José Ruiz-Herrera's discovery that chitin microfibrils could be made by a fungal extract paved the way for elucidating the intracellular location of chitin synthetase. In collaboration with Charles Bracker, chitosomes were identified as the major reservoir of chitin synthetase in fungi. Unique in size, buoyant density, and membrane thickness, chitosomes were found in a wide range of fungi. Their reversible dissociation into 16S subunits is another unique property of chitosomes. These 16S subunits are the smallest molecular entities known to retain chitin synthetase activity. Further dissociation leads to complete loss of activity. From studies with secretory mutants, yeast researchers concluded that chitosomes were components of the endocytosis pathway. However, key structural and enzymatic characteristics argue in favor of the chitosome being poised for exocytotic delivery rather than endocytotic recycling. The chitosome represents the main vehicle for delivering chitin synthetase to the cell surface. An immediate challenge is to elucidate chitosome ontogeny and the role of proteins encoded by the reported chitin synthetase genes in the structure or function of chitosomes. The ultimate challenge would be to understand how the chitosome integrates with the cell surface to construct the organized microfibrillar skeleton of the fungal cell wall.