Temporal variability in soil microbial communities across land-use types

Although numerous studies have investigated changes in soil microbial communities across space, questions about the temporal variability in these communities and how this variability compares across soils have received far less attention. We collected soils on a monthly basis (May to November) from replicated plots representing three land-use types (conventional and reduced-input row crop agricultural plots and early successional grasslands) maintained at a research site in Michigan, USA. Using barcoded pyrosequencing of the 16S rRNA gene, we found that the agricultural and early successional land uses harbored unique soil bacterial communities that exhibited distinct temporal patterns. α-Diversity, the numbers of taxa or lineages, was significantly influenced by the sampling month with the temporal variability in α-diversity exceeding the variability between land-use types. In contrast, differences in community composition across land-use types were reasonably constant across the 7-month period, suggesting that the time of sampling is less important when assessing β-diversity patterns. Communities in the agricultural soils were most variable over time and the changes were significantly correlated with soil moisture and temperature. Temporal shifts in bacterial community composition within the successional grassland plots were less predictable and are likely a product of complex interactions between the soil environment and the more diverse plant community. Temporal variability needs to be carefully assessed when comparing microbial diversity across soil types and the temporal patterns in microbial community structure can not necessarily be generalized across land uses, even if those soils are exposed to the same climatic conditions.     

Temporal dynamics of microbial communities in microcosms in response to pollutants

Elucidating the mechanisms underlying microbial succession is a major goal of microbial ecology research. Given the increasing human pressure on the environment and natural resources, responses to the repeated introduction of organic and inorganic pollutants are of particular interest. To investigate the temporal dynamics of microbial communities in response to pollutants, we analysed the microbial community structure in batch microcosms that were inoculated with soil bacteria following exposure to individual or combined pollutants (phenanthrene, n‐octadecane, phenanthrene + n‐octadecane and phenanthrene + n‐octadecane + CdCl₂). Subculturing was performed at 10‐day intervals, followed by high‐throughput sequencing of 16S rRNA genes. The dynamics of microbial communities in response to different pollutants alone and in combination displayed similar patterns during enrichment. Specifically, the repression and induction of microbial taxa were dominant, and the fluctuation was not significant. The rate of appearance for new taxa and the temporal turnover within microbial communities were higher than the rates reported in other studies of microbial communities in air, water and soil samples. In addition, conditionally rare taxa that were specific to the treatments exhibited higher betweenness centrality values in the co‐occurrence network, indicating a strong influence on other interactions in the community. These results suggest that the repeated introduction of pollutants could accelerate microbial succession in microcosms, resulting in the rapid re‐equilibration of microbial communities.     

The Temporal Scaling of Bacterioplankton Composition: High Turnover and Predictability during Shrimp Cultivation

The spatial distribution of microbial communities has recently been reliably documented in the form of a distance–similarity decay relationship. In contrast, temporal scaling, the pattern defined by the microbial similarity–time relationships (STRs), has received far less attention. As a result, it is unclear whether the spatial and temporal variations of microbial communities share a similar power law. In this study, we applied the 454 pyrosequencing technique to investigate temporal scaling in patterns of bacterioplankton community dynamics during the process of shrimp culture. Our results showed that the similarities decreased significantly (P?=?0.002) with time during the period over which the bacterioplankton community was monitored, with a scaling exponent of w?=?0.400. However, the diversities did not change dramatically. The community dynamics followed a gradual process of succession relative to the parent communities, with greater similarities between samples from consecutive sampling points. In particular, the variations of the bacterial communities from different ponds shared similar successional trajectories, suggesting that bacterial temporal dynamics are predictable to a certain extent. Changes in bacterial community structure were significantly correlated with the combination of Chl a, TN, PO₄ ^3-, and the C/N ratio. In this study, we identified predictable patterns in the temporal dynamics of bacterioplankton community structure, demonstrating that the STR of the bacterial community mirrors the spatial distance–similarity decay model.     

Bacterial Succession on the Leaf Surface: A Novel System for Studying Successional Dynamics

Succession is a widely studied process in plant and animal systems, but succession in microbial communities has received relatively little attention despite the ubiquity of microorganisms in natural habitats. One important microbial habitat is the phyllosphere, or leaf surface, which harbors large, diverse populations of bacteria and offers unique opportunities for the study of succession and temporal community assembly patterns. To explore bacterial community successional patterns, we sampled phyllosphere communities on cottonwood (Populus deltoides) trees multiple times across the growing season, from leaf emergence to leaf fall. Bacterial community composition was highly variable throughout the growing season; leaves sampled as little as a week apart were found to harbor significantly different communities, and the temporal variability on a given tree exceeded the variability in community composition between individual trees sampled on a given day. The bacterial communities clearly clustered into early-, mid-, and late-season clusters, with early- and late-season communities being more similar to each other than to the mid-season communities, and these patterns appeared consistent from year to year. Although we observed clear and predictable changes in bacterial community composition during the course of the growing season, changes in phyllosphere bacterial diversity were less predictable. We examined the species–time relationship, a measure of species turnover rate, and found that the relationship was fundamentally similar to that observed in plant and invertebrate communities, just on a shorter time scale. The temporal dynamics we observed suggest that although phyllosphere bacterial communities have high levels of phylogenetic diversity and rapid turnover rates, these communities follow predictable successional patterns from season to season.     

Temporal variability in the diversity and composition of stream bacterioplankton communities

Bacterioplankton in freshwater streams play a critical role in stream nutrient cycling. Despite their ecological importance, the temporal variability in the structure of stream bacterioplankton communities remains understudied. We investigated the composition and temporal variability of stream bacterial communities and the influence of physicochemical parameters on these communities. We used barcoded pyrosequencing to survey bacterial communities in 107 streamwater samples collected from four locations in the Colorado Rocky Mountains from September 2008 to November 2009. The four sampled locations harboured distinct communities yet, at each sampling location, there was pronounced temporal variability in both community composition and alpha diversity levels. These temporal shifts in bacterioplankton community structure were not seasonal; rather, their diversity and composition appeared to be driven by intermittent changes in various streamwater biogeochemical conditions. Bacterial communities varied independently of time, as indicated by the observation that communities in samples collected close together in time were no more similar than those collected months apart. The temporal turnover in community composition was higher than observed in most previously studied microbial, plant or animal communities, highlighting the importance of stochastic processes and disturbance events in structuring these communities over time. Detailed temporal sampling is important if the objective is to monitor microbial community dynamics in pulsed ecosystems like streams.     

Temporal variation overshadows the response of leaf litter microbial communities to simulated global change

Bacteria and fungi drive the decomposition of dead plant biomass (litter), an important step in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Here we investigate the sensitivity of litter microbial communities to simulated global change (drought and nitrogen addition) in a California annual grassland. Using 16S and 28S rDNA amplicon pyrosequencing, we quantify the response of the bacterial and fungal communities to the treatments and compare these results to background, temporal (seasonal and interannual) variability of the communities. We found that the drought and nitrogen treatments both had significant effects on microbial community composition, explaining 2–6% of total compositional variation. However, microbial composition was even more strongly influenced by seasonal and annual variation (explaining 14–39%). The response of microbial composition to drought varied by season, while the effect of the nitrogen addition treatment was constant through time. These compositional responses were similar in magnitude to those seen in microbial enzyme activities and the surrounding plant community, but did not correspond to a consistent effect on leaf litter decomposition rate. Overall, these patterns indicate that, in this ecosystem, temporal variability in the composition of leaf litter microorganisms largely surpasses that expected in a short-term global change experiment. Thus, as for plant communities, future microbial communities will likely be determined by the interplay between rapid, local background variability and slower, global changes.     

The generation and maintenance of diversity in microbial communities

Microorganisms play a central role in the regulation of ecosystem processes, and they comprise the vast majority of species on Earth. With recent developments in molecular methods, it has become tractable to quantify the extent of microbial diversity in natural environments. Here we examine this revolution in our understanding of microbial diversity, and we explore the factors that contribute to the seemingly astounding numbers of microbial taxa found within individual environmental samples. We conducted a meta-analysis of bacterial richness estimates from a variety of ecosystems. Nearly all environments contained hundreds to thousands of bacterial taxa, and richness levels increased with the number of individuals in a sample, a pattern consistent with those reported for nonmicrobial taxa. A cursory comparison might suggest that bacterial richness far exceeds the richness levels typically observed for plant and animal taxa. However, the apparent diversity of bacterial communities is influenced by phylogenetic breadth and allometric scaling issues. When these features are taken into consideration, the levels of microbial diversity may appear less astounding. Although the fields of ecology and biogeography have traditionally ignored microorganisms, there are no longer valid excuses for neglecting microorganisms in surveys of biodiversity. Many of the concepts developed to explain plant and animal diversity patterns can also be applied to microorganisms once we reconcile the scale of our analyses to the scale of the organisms being observed. Furthermore, knowledge from microbial systems may provide insight into the mechanisms that generate and maintain species richness in nonmicrobial systems.     

Temporal and Spatial Distribution of the Microbial Community of Winogradsky Columns

Winogradsky columns are model microbial ecosystems prepared by adding pond sediment to a clear cylinder with additional supplements and incubated with light. Environmental gradients develop within the column creating diverse niches that allow enrichment of specific bacteria. The enrichment culture can be used to study soil and sediment microbial community structure and function. In this study we used a 16S rRNA gene survey to characterize the microbial community dynamics during Winogradsky column development to determine the rate and extent of change from the source sediment community. Over a period of 60 days, the microbial community changed from the founding pond sediment population: Cyanobacteria, Chloroflexi, Nitrospirae, and Planctomycetes increased in relative abundance over time, while most Proteobacteria decreased in relative abundance. A unique, light-dependent surface biofilm community formed by 60 days that was less diverse and dominated by a few highly abundant bacteria. 67–72% of the surface community was comprised of highly enriched taxa that were rare in the source pond sediment, including the Cyanobacteria Anabaena, a member of the Gemmatimonadetes phylum, and a member of the Chloroflexi class Anaerolinea. This indicates that rare taxa can become abundant under appropriate environmental conditions and supports the hypothesis that rare taxa serve as a microbial seed bank. We also present preliminary findings that suggest that bacteriophages may be active in the Winogradsky community. The dynamics of certain taxa, most notably the Cyanobacteria, showed a bloom-and-decline pattern, consistent with bacteriophage predation as predicted in the kill-the-winner hypothesis. Time-lapse photography also supported the possibility of bacteriophage activity, revealing a pattern of colony clearance similar to formation of viral plaques. The Winogradsky column, a technique developed early in the history of microbial ecology to enrich soil microbes, may therefore be a useful model system to investigate both microbial and viral ecology.     

Strong but opposing β-diversity–stability relationships in coral reef fish communities

The ‘diversity–stability hypothesis’, in which higher species diversity within biological communities buffers the risk of ecological collapse, is now generally accepted. However, empirical evidence for a relationship between β-diversity (spatial turnover in community structure) and temporal stability in community structure remains equivocal, despite important implications for theoretical ecology and conservation biology. Here, we report strong β-diversity–stability relationships across a broad sample of fish taxa on Australia''s Great Barrier Reef. These relationships were robust to random sampling error and spatial and environmental factors, such as latitude, reef size and isolation. While β-diversity was positively associated with temporal stability at the community level, the relationship was negative for some taxa, for example surgeonfishes (Acanthuridae), one of the most abundant reef fish families. This demonstrates that the β-diversity–stability relationship should not be indiscriminately assumed for all taxa, but that a species’ risk of extirpation in response to disturbance is likely to be taxon specific and trait based. By combining predictions of spatial and temporal turnover across the study area with observations in marine-protected areas, we conclude that protection alone does not necessarily confer temporal stability and that taxon-specific considerations will improve the outcome of conservation efforts.     

Temporal variability is a personalized feature of the human microbiome

Background

It is now apparent that the complex microbial communities found on and in the human body vary across individuals. What has largely been missing from previous studies is an understanding of how these communities vary over time within individuals. To the extent to which it has been considered, it is often assumed that temporal variability is negligible for healthy adults. Here we address this gap in understanding by profiling the forehead, gut (fecal), palm, and tongue microbial communities in 85 adults, weekly over 3 months.

Results

We found that skin (forehead and palm) varied most in the number of taxa present, whereas gut and tongue communities varied more in the relative abundances of taxa. Within each body habitat, there was a wide range of temporal variability across the study population, with some individuals harboring more variable communities than others. The best predictor of these differences in variability across individuals was microbial diversity; individuals with more diverse gut or tongue communities were more stable in composition than individuals with less diverse communities.

Conclusions

Longitudinal sampling of a relatively large number of individuals allowed us to observe high levels of temporal variability in both diversity and community structure in all body habitats studied. These findings suggest that temporal dynamics may need to be considered when attempting to link changes in microbiome structure to changes in health status. Furthermore, our findings show that, not only is the composition of an individual’s microbiome highly personalized, but their degree of temporal variability is also a personalized feature.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13059-014-0531-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Temporal scaling of bacterial taxa is influenced by both stochastic and deterministic ecological factors

Microorganisms operate at a range of spatial and temporal scales acting as key drivers of ecosystem properties. Therefore, many key questions in microbial ecology require the consideration of both spatial and temporal scales. Spatial scaling, in particular the species-area relationship (SAR), has a long history in ecology and has recently been addressed in microbial ecology. However, the temporal analogue of the SAR, the species-time relationship, has received far less attention even in the science of general ecology. Here we focus upon the role of temporal scaling in microbial ecological patterns by coupling molecular characterization of bacterial communities in discrete island (bioreactor) systems with a macroecological approach. Our findings showed that the temporal scaling exponent (slope), and therefore taxa turnover of the bacterial taxa-time relationship decreased as selective pressure (industrial wastewater concentration) increased. Also, as the concentration of industrial wastewater increased across the bioreactors, we observed a gradual switch from stochastic community assembly to more deterministic (niche)-based considerations. The identification of broad-scale statistical patterns is particularly relevant to microbial ecology, as it is frequently difficult to identify individual species or their functions. In this study, we identify wide-reaching statistical patterns of diversity and show that they are shaped by the prevalent underlying ecological factors.     

Phylogenetic restriction of plant invasion in drought‐stressed environments: Implications for insect‐pollinated plant communities in water‐limited ecosystems

BackgroundPlant–pollinator community diversity has been found to decrease under conditions of drought stress; however, research into the temporal dimensions of this phenomenon remains limited. In this study, we investigated the effect of seasonal drought on the temporal niche dynamics of entomophilous flowering plants in a water‐limited ecosystem. We hypothesized that closely related native and exotic plants would tend to share similar life history and that peak flowering events would therefore coincide with phylogenetic clustering in plant communities based on expected phenological responses of plant functional types to limitations in soil moisture availability.LocationGaliano Island, British Columbia, Canada.MethodsCombining methods from pollinator research and phylogenetic community ecology, we tested the influence of environmental filtering over plant community phenology across gradients of landscape disturbance and soil moisture. Floral resource availability and community structure were quantified by counts of flowering shoots. We constructed a robust phylogeny to analyze spatial and temporal variation in phylogenetic patterns across the landscape, testing the significance of the observed patterns against a randomly generated community phylogeny. Phylogenetic metrics were then regressed against factors of disturbance and soil moisture availability.ResultsCritical seasonal fluctuations in floral resources coincided with significant phylogenetic clustering in plant communities, with decreasing plant diversity observed under conditions of increasing drought stress. Exotic plant species in the Asteraceae became increasingly pervasive across the landscape, occupying a late season temporal niche in drought‐stressed environments.Main conclusionResults suggest that environmental filtering is the dominant assembly process structuring the temporal niche of plant communities in this water‐limited ecosystem. Based on these results, and trends seen elsewhere, the overall diversity of plant–pollinator communities may be expected to decline with the increasing drought stress predicted under future climate scenarios.     

Short-term observations of marine bacterial and viral communities: patterns,connections and resilience

Observation of short-term temporal variation in bacterial and viral communities is important for understanding patterns of aquatic microbial diversity. We collected surface seawater once daily for 38 consecutive days with seven more samples interspersed over 40 more days at one location ∼2 km from Santa Catalina Island, California. Bacterial communities were analyzed by automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis (ARISA) and viral communities were analyzed by terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (TRFLP) of the conserved T4-like myoviral gene encoding the major capsid protein (g23). Common bacterial and viral taxa were consistently dominant, and relatively few displayed dramatic increases/decreases or ‘boom/bust'' patterns that might be expected from dynamic predator-prey interactions. Association network analysis showed most significant covariations (associations) occurred among bacterial taxa or among viral taxa and there were several modular (highly-interconnected) associations (P⩽0.005). Associations observed between bacteria and viruses (P⩽0.005) occurred with a median time lag of 2 days. Regression of all pairwise Bray-Curtis similarities between samples indicated a rate of bacterial community change that slows from 2.1%–0.18% per day over a week to 2 months; the rate stays around 0.4% per day for viruses. Our interpretation is that, over the scale of days, individual bacterial and viral OTUs can be dynamic and patterned; resulting in statistical associations regarded as potential ecological interactions. However, over the scale of weeks, average bacterial community variation is slower, suggesting that there is strong community-level ecological resilience, that is, a tendency to converge towards a ‘mean'' microbial community set by longer-term controlling factors.     

Resolving functional diversity in relation to microbial community structure in soil: exploiting genomics and stable isotope probing

The microbial ecology of soil still presents a challenge to microbiologists attempting to establish the ways in which bacteria and fungi actively metabolise substrates, link into food webs and recycle plant and animal remains and provide essential nutrients for plants. Extraction and in situ analysis of rRNA has enabled identification of active taxa, and detection of mRNA has provided an insight into the expression of key functional genes in soil. Recent advances in genomic analysis and stable isotope probing are the first steps in resolving the linkage between structure and function in microbial communities.     

Are you what you eat? A highly transient and prey‐influenced gut microbiome in the grey house spider Badumna longinqua

Stable core microbial communities have been described in numerous animal species and are commonly associated with fitness benefits for their hosts. Recent research, however, highlights examples of species whose microbiota are transient and environmentally derived. Here, we test the effect of diet on gut microbial community assembly in the spider Badumna longinqua. Using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing combined with quantitative PCR, we analyzed diversity and abundance of the spider's gut microbes, and simultaneously characterized its prey communities using nuclear rRNA markers. We found a clear correlation between community similarity of the spider's insect prey and gut microbial DNA, suggesting that microbiome assembly is primarily diet‐driven. This assumption is supported by a feeding experiment, in which two types of prey—crickets and fruit flies—both substantially altered microbial diversity and community similarity between spiders, but did so in different ways. After cricket consumption, numerous cricket‐derived microbes appeared in the spider's gut, resulting in a rapid homogenization of microbial communities among spiders. In contrast, few prey‐associated bacteria were detected after consumption of fruit flies; instead, the microbial community was remodelled by environmentally sourced microbes, or abundance shifts of rare taxa in the spider's gut. The reshaping of the microbiota by both prey taxa mimicked a stable core microbiome in the spiders for several weeks post feeding. Our results suggest that the spider's gut microbiome undergoes pronounced temporal fluctuations, that its assembly is dictated by the consumed prey, and that different prey taxa may remodel the microbiota in drastically different ways.     

Disturbance Frequency and Community Stability in Native Tallgrass Prairie

Ecological communities are spatially and temporally variable in response to a variety of biotic and abiotic forces. It is not always clear, however, if spatial and temporal variability leads to instability in communities. Instability may result from strong biotic interactions or from stochastic processes acting on small populations. I used 10-15 yr of annual data from the Konza Prairie Long-Term Ecological Research site to examine whether plant, breeding bird, grasshopper, and small mammal communities in tallgrass prairie exhibit stability or directional change in response to different experimentally induced fire frequencies. Based on ordination and ANOVA, plant and grasshopper communities on annually burned sites differed significantly from plant and grasshopper communities on less frequently burned sites. Breeding birds and small mammals differed among sites as well, but these differences were not clearly related to disturbance frequency. A modified time series analysis indicated that plant communities were undergoing directional change (unstable) on all watersheds, regardless of fire frequency. Contrary to expectations, directional change was greatest on the annually burned sites and lowest on the infrequently burned sites. Unlike the plant communities, breeding bird, grasshopper, and small mammal communities were temporally stable, despite high-compositional variability from 1 yr to the next. Stability among the consumer communities within these dynamic plant communities occurs because three-dimensional vegetation structure does not change over time, despite changes in plant species composition. Evidence suggests that instability in the plant community results from strong biotic interactions among temporally persistent core species and stochastic dynamics among infrequent satellite species. Overall, community stability cannot be assessed if the pattern of temporal dynamics is unknown. Long-term empirical studies of different taxa under different disturbance regimes are needed to determine over what time frames and spatial scales communities may be stable. Such studies are essential for the development of generalities regarding the relationship between disturbance frequency and community stability in terrestrial and aquatic systems.     

Maternal effects and the outcome of interspecific competition

1. Maternal environmental effects create lagged population responses to past environments. Although they are ubiquitous and vary in expression across taxa, it remains unclear if and how their presence alters competitive interactions in ecological communities.
2. Here, we use a discrete‐time competition model to simulate how maternal effects alter competitive dynamics in fluctuating and constant environments. Further, we explore how omitting maternal effects alter estimates of known model parameters from observational time series data.
3. Our simulations demonstrate that (i) maternal effects change competitive outcomes, regardless of whether competitors otherwise interact neutrally or exhibit non‐neutral competitive differences, (ii) the consequences of maternal effects for competitive outcomes are mediated by the temporal structure of environmental variation, (iii) even in constant conditions, competitive outcomes are influenced by species'' maternal effects strategies, and (iv) in observational time series data, omitting maternal effects reduces variation explained by models and biases parameter estimates, including competition coefficients.
4. Our findings demonstrate that the ecological consequences of maternal effects hinge on the competitive environment. Evolutionary biologists have long recognized that maternal effects can be an important but often overlooked strategy buffering populations from environmental change. We suggest that maternal effects are similarly critical to ecology and call for research into maternal effects as drivers of dynamics in populations and communities.

     

Spatial and temporal variations in salt marsh microorganisms of the Wadden Sea

Salt marshes exist at the interface of the marine and the terrestrial system. Shore height differences and associated variations in inundation frequency result in altered abiotic conditions, plant communities, and resource input into the belowground system. These factors result in three unique zones, the upper salt marsh (USM), the lower salt marsh (LSM), and the pioneer zone (PZ). Marine detritus, such as micro‐ and macroalgae, is typically flushed into the PZ daily, with storm surges moving both salt marsh detritus and marine detritus into higher salt marsh zones. Microbial assemblages are essential for the decomposition of organic matter and have been shown to sensitively respond to changes in abiotic conditions such as oxygen supply and salinity. However, temporal and spatial dynamics of microbial communities of Wadden Sea salt marshes received little attention. We investigated the dynamics of soil microbial communities across horizontal (USM, LSM, and PZ), vertical (0–5 and 5–10‐cm sediment depth), and temporal (spring, summer, and autumn) scales in the Wadden Sea salt marsh of the European North Atlantic coast using phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis. Our results show strong spatial dynamics both among salt marsh zones and between sediment depths, but temporal dynamics to be only minor. Despite varying in space and time, PLFA markers indicated that bacteria generally were the dominant microbial group across salt marsh zones and seasons, however, their dominance was most pronounced in the USM, whereas fungal biomass peaked in the LSM and algal biomass in the PZ. Only algal markers and the stress marker monounsaturated to saturated fatty acid ratio responded to seasonality. Overall, therefore, the results indicate remarkable temporal stability of salt marsh microbial communities despite strong variability in abiotic factors.     

Division-Specific Differences in Bacterial Community Assembly of Two Alkaline Hot Spring Ecosystems from Yellowstone National Park

A fundamental issue in ecology is whether communities are random assemblages or, alternatively, whether there are rules that determine which combinations of taxa can co-occur. For microbial systems, in particular, the question of whether taxonomic groups exhibit differences in community organization remains unresolved but is critical for our understanding of community structure and function. Here, we used presence–absence matrices derived from bar-coded pyrosequencing data to evaluate the assembly patterns of eight bacterial divisions distributed along two Yellowstone National Park hot spring outflow channels. Four divisions (Cyanobacteria, Chloroflexi, Acidobacteria, and Cytophaga–Flavobacterium–Bacteroides) exhibited less co-occurrence than expected by chance, with phototrophic taxa showing the strongest evidence for nonrandom community structure. We propose that both differences in environmental tolerance and competitive interactions within divisions contribute to these nonrandom assembly patterns. The higher degree of nonrandom structure observed for phototrophic taxa compared with the other divisions may be due in part to greater overlap in resource usage, as has been previously proposed for plant communities.     

Stochastic multiplicative population growth predicts and interprets Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling

Taylor''s law (TL) asserts that the variance of the density (individuals per area or volume) of a set of comparable populations is a power-law function of the mean density of those populations. Despite the empirical confirmation of TL in hundreds of species, there is little consensus about why TL is so widely observed and how its estimated parameters should be interpreted. Here, we report that the Lewontin–Cohen (henceforth LC) model of stochastic population dynamics, which has been widely discussed and applied, leads to a spatial TL in the limit of large time and provides an explicit, exact interpretation of its parameters. The exponent of TL exceeds 2 if and only if the LC model is supercritical (growing on average), equals 2 if and only if the LC model is deterministic, and is less than 2 if and only if the LC model is subcritical (declining on average). TL and the LC model describe the spatial variability and the temporal dynamics of populations of trees on long-term plots censused over 75 years at the Black Rock Forest, Cornwall, NY, USA.