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1.
The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between Aedes aegypti egg and adult density indices, dengue fever and climate in Mirassol, state of S?o Paulo, Brazil, between November 2004-November 2005. Weekly collections of adults and eggs were made using, respectively, manual aspirators and oviposition traps that produced four entomological indices (positivity and average of females and eggs). Weekly incidence coefficients were calculated based on dengue cases. Each week, the data obtained from entomological indices were related to each other, dengue, and climate variables. The first index to show an association with dengue transmission was the female average, followed by female positivity and egg average. Egg positivity did not show a relationship with risk for dengue, but was sensitive to identifying the presence of the vector, principally in dry seasons. The relationship between climatic factors, the vector and the disease found in this study can be widely employed in planning and undertaking dengue surveillance and control activities, but it is a tool that has not been considered by the authorities responsible for controlling the disease. In fact, this relationship permits the use of information about climate for early detection of epidemics and for establishing more effective prevention strategies than currently exist.  相似文献   

2.

Background

Emerging information technologies present new opportunities to reduce the burden of malaria, dengue and other infectious diseases. For example, use of a data management system software package can help disease control programs to better manage and analyze their data, and thus enhances their ability to carry out continuous surveillance, monitor interventions and evaluate control program performance.

Methods and Findings

We describe a novel multi-disease data management system platform (hereinafter referred to as the system) with current capacity for dengue and malaria that supports data entry, storage and query. It also allows for production of maps and both standardized and customized reports. The system is comprised exclusively of software components that can be distributed without the user incurring licensing costs. It was designed to maximize the ability of the user to adapt the system to local conditions without involvement of software developers. Key points of system adaptability include 1) customizable functionality content by disease, 2) configurable roles and permissions, 3) customizable user interfaces and display labels and 4) configurable information trees including a geographical entity tree and a term tree. The system includes significant portions of functionality that is entirely or in large part re-used across diseases, which provides an economy of scope as new diseases downstream are added to the system at decreased cost.

Conclusions

We have developed a system with great potential for aiding disease control programs in their task to reduce the burden of dengue and malaria, including the implementation of integrated vector management programs. Next steps include evaluations of operational implementations of the current system with capacity for dengue and malaria, and the inclusion in the system platform of other important vector-borne diseases.  相似文献   

3.
To understand its unprecedented resurgence, we examined the epidemiological, virological, and entomological features of dengue in Guangzhou during 1978-2009. Cases reported to the Guangzhou Centre for Disease Control and Prevention and data from virological and entomological surveillance were analyzed from three periods: 1978-1988, 1989-1999, and 2000-2009. Although cases decreased over time: 6,649 (1978-1988) to 6,479 (1989-1999) to 2,526 (2000-2009), geographical expansion resulted in districts with an average incidence >2.5/100,000, increasing from five (1978-1988, 1989-1999) to seven (2000-2009). Age distribution (mean age: 34.9 years) provided a trend of increasing dengue incidence among adults, and there was a significantly higher incidence among men with a sex ratio of 1.15:1 (P<0.001). Cases occurred from May through November with a peak between August and October, and a long-term trend was characterized by a three to five-year cyclical pattern. The most frequently isolated serotypes were DENV-2 (1978-1988) and DENV-1 (1989-1999 and 2000-2009). Seasonal fluctuations in immature densities of Aedes albopictus (sole transmission vector in Guangzhou) were consistent with the dengue seasonality. After a 30-year apparent absence, DENV-3 had reemerged in 2009. The current epidemiological situation is highly conducive to periodic dengue resurgences. Thus, a high degree of surveillance and strict control measures in source reduction should be maintained.  相似文献   

4.
The use of vector surveillance tools for preventing dengue disease requires fine assessment of risk, in order to improve vector control activities. Nevertheless, the thresholds between vector detection and dengue fever occurrence are currently not well established. In Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais, Brazil), dengue has been endemic for several years. From January 2007 to June 2008, the dengue vector Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti was monitored by ovitrap, the sticky-trap MosquiTRAP™ and larval surveys in an study area in Belo Horizonte. Using a space-time scan for clusters detection implemented in SaTScan software, the vector presence recorded by the different monitoring methods was evaluated. Clusters of vectors and dengue fever were detected. It was verified that ovitrap and MosquiTRAP vector detection methods predicted dengue occurrence better than larval survey, both spatially and temporally. MosquiTRAP and ovitrap presented similar results of space-time intersections to dengue fever clusters. Nevertheless ovitrap clusters presented longer duration periods than MosquiTRAP ones, less acuratelly signalizing the dengue risk areas, since the detection of vector clusters during most of the study period was not necessarily correlated to dengue fever occurrence. It was verified that ovitrap clusters occurred more than 200 days (values ranged from 97.0±35.35 to 283.0±168.4 days) before dengue fever clusters, whereas MosquiTRAP clusters preceded dengue fever clusters by approximately 80 days (values ranged from 65.5±58.7 to 94.0±14. 3 days), the former showing to be more temporally precise. Thus, in the present cluster analysis study MosquiTRAP presented superior results for signaling dengue transmission risks both geographically and temporally. Since early detection is crucial for planning and deploying effective preventions, MosquiTRAP showed to be a reliable tool and this method provides groundwork for the development of even more precise tools.  相似文献   

5.
As the most widespread viral infection transmitted by the Aedes mosquitoes, dengue has been estimated to cause 51 million febrile disease cases globally each year. Although sustained vector control remains key to reducing the burden of dengue, current understanding of the key factors that explain the observed variation in the short- and long-term vector control effectiveness across different transmission settings remains limited. We used a detailed individual-based model to simulate dengue transmission with and without sustained vector control over a 30-year time frame, under different transmission scenarios. Vector control effectiveness was derived for different time windows within the 30-year intervention period. We then used the extreme gradient boosting algorithm to predict the effectiveness of vector control given the simulation parameters, and the resulting machine learning model was interpreted using Shapley Additive Explanations. According to our simulation outputs, dengue transmission would be nearly eliminated during the early stage of sustained and intensive vector control, but over time incidence would gradually bounce back to the pre-intervention level unless the intervention is implemented at a very high level of intensity. The time point at which intervention ceases to be effective is strongly influenced not only by the intensity of vector control, but also by the pre-intervention transmission intensity and the individual-level heterogeneity in biting risk. Moreover, the impact of many transmission model parameters on the intervention effectiveness is shown to be modified by the intensity of vector control, as well as to vary over time. Our study has identified some of the critical drivers for the difference in the time-varying effectiveness of sustained vector control across different dengue endemic settings, and the insights obtained will be useful to inform future model-based studies that seek to predict the impact of dengue vector control in their local contexts.  相似文献   

6.

Background

All four serotypes of dengue virus are endemic in Indonesia, where the population at risk for infection exceeds 200 million people. Despite continuous control efforts that were initiated more than four decades ago, Indonesia still suffers from multi-annual cycles of dengue outbreak and dengue remains as a major public health problem. Dengue vaccines have been viewed as a promising solution for controlling dengue in Indonesia, but thus far its potential acceptability has not been assessed.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted a household survey in the city of Bandung, Indonesia by administering a questionnaire to examine (i) acceptance of a hypothetical pediatric dengue vaccine; (ii) participant''s willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the vaccine, had it not been provided for free; and (iii) whether people think vector control would be unnecessary if the vaccine was available. A proportional odds model and an interval regression model were employed to identify determinants of acceptance and WTP, respectively. We demonstrated that out of 500 heads of household being interviewed, 94.2% would agree to vaccinate their children with the vaccine. Of all participants, 94.6% were willing to pay for the vaccine with a median WTP of US$1.94. In addition, 7.2% stated that vector control would not be necessary had there been a dengue vaccination program.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results suggest that future dengue vaccines can have a very high uptake even when delivered through the private market. This, however, can be influenced by vaccine characteristics and price. In addition, reduction in community vector control efforts may be observed following vaccine introduction but its potential impact in the transmission of dengue and other vector-borne diseases requires further study.  相似文献   

7.
Dengue virus type 3 was isolated for the first time in the country as an indigenous case from a 40 year-old woman presenting signs and symptoms of a classical dengue fever in the municipality of Nova Igua?u, State of Rio de Janeiro. This serotype has been associated with dengue haemorrhagic epidemics and the information could be used to implement appropriate prevention and control measures. Virological surveillance was essential in order to detected this new serotype.  相似文献   

8.
Cambodia has one of the highest dengue infection rates in Southeast Asia. Here we report quantitative entomological results of a large-scale cluster-randomised trial assessing the impact on vector populations of a package of vector control interventions including larvivorous guppy fish in household water containers, mosquito trapping with gravid-ovitraps, solid waste management, breeding-container coverage through community education and engagement for behavioural change, particularly through the participation of school children. These activities resulted in major reductions in Container Index, House Index, Breteau Index, Pupal Index and Adult Index (all p-values 0.002 or lower) in the Intervention Arm compared with the Control Arm in a series of household surveys conducted over a follow-up period of more than one year, although the project was not able to measure the longer-term sustainability of the interventions. Despite comparative reductions in Adult Index between the study arms, the Adult Index was higher in the Intervention Arm in the final household survey than in the first household survey. This package of biophysical and community engagement interventions was highly effective in reducing entomological indices for dengue compared with the control group, but caution is required in extrapolating the reduction in household Adult Index to a reduction in the overall population of adult Aedes mosquitoes, and in interpreting the relationship between a reduction in entomological indices and a reduction in the number of dengue cases. The package of interventions should be trialled in other locations.  相似文献   

9.

Background

Dengue infection is endemic in many regions throughout the world. While insecticide fogging targeting the vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is a major control measure against dengue epidemics, the impact of this method remains controversial. A previous mathematical simulation study indicated that insecticide fogging minimized cases when conducted soon after peak disease prevalence, although the impact was minimal, possibly because seasonality and population immunity were not considered. Periodic outbreak patterns are also highly influenced by seasonal climatic conditions. Thus, these factors are important considerations when assessing the effect of vector control against dengue. We used mathematical simulations to identify the appropriate timing of insecticide fogging, considering seasonal change of vector populations, and to evaluate its impact on reducing dengue cases with various levels of transmission intensity.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We created the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model of dengue virus transmission. Mosquito lifespan was assumed to change seasonally and the optimal timing of insecticide fogging to minimize dengue incidence under various lengths of the wet season was investigated. We also assessed whether insecticide fogging was equally effective at higher and lower endemic levels by running simulations over a 500-year period with various transmission intensities to produce an endemic state. In contrast to the previous study, the optimal application of insecticide fogging was between the onset of the wet season and the prevalence peak. Although it has less impact in areas that have higher endemicity and longer wet seasons, insecticide fogging can prevent a considerable number of dengue cases if applied at the optimal time.

Conclusions/Significance

The optimal timing of insecticide fogging and its impact on reducing dengue cases were greatly influenced by seasonality and the level of transmission intensity. We suggest that these factors should be considered when planning a control strategy against dengue vectors.  相似文献   

10.
Across the Pacific, and including in the Solomon Islands, outbreaks of arboviruses such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika are increasing in frequency, scale and impact. Outbreaks of mosquito-borne disease have the potential to overwhelm the health systems of small island nations. This study mapped the seroprevalence of dengue, Zika, chikungunya and Ross River viruses in 5 study sites in the Solomon Islands. Serum samples from 1,021 participants were analysed by ELISA. Overall, 56% of participants were flavivirus-seropositive for dengue (28%), Zika (1%) or both flaviviruses (27%); and 53% of participants were alphavirus-seropositive for chikungunya (3%), Ross River virus (31%) or both alphaviruses (18%). Seroprevalence for both flaviviruses and alphaviruses varied by village and age of the participant. The most prevalent arboviruses in the Solomon Islands were dengue and Ross River virus. The high seroprevalence of dengue suggests that herd immunity may be a driver of dengue outbreak dynamics in the Solomon Islands. Despite being undetected prior to this survey, serology results suggest that Ross River virus transmission is endemic. There is a real need to increase the diagnostic capacities for each of the arboviruses to support effective case management and to provide timely information to inform vector control efforts and other outbreak mitigation interventions.  相似文献   

11.
Dengue is currently listed as a “neglected tropical disease” (NTD). But is dengue still an NTD or not? Classifying dengue as an NTD may carry advantages, but is it justified? This review considers the criteria for the definition of an NTD, the current diverse lists of NTDs by different stakeholders, and the commonalities and differences of dengue with other NTDs. We also review the current research gaps and research activities and the adequacy of funding for dengue research and development (R&D) (2003–2013). NTD definitions have been developed to a higher precision since the early 2000s, with the following main features: NTDs are characterised as a) poverty related, b) endemic to the tropics and subtropics, c) lacking public health attention, d) having poor research funding and shortcomings in R&D, e) usually associated with high morbidity but low mortality, and f) often having no specific treatment available. Dengue meets most of these criteria, but not all. Although dengue predominantly affects resource-limited countries, it does not necessarily only target the poor and marginalised in those countries. Dengue increasingly attracts public health attention, and in some affected countries it is now a high profile disease. Research funding for dengue has increased exponentially in the past two decades, in particular in the area of dengue vaccine development. However, despite advances in dengue research, dengue epidemics are increasing in frequency and magnitude, and dengue is expanding to new areas. Specific treatment and a highly effective vaccine remain elusive. Major research gaps exist in the area of integrated surveillance and vector control. Hence, although dengue differs from many of the NTDs, it still meets important criteria commonly used for NTDs. The current need for increased R&D spending, shared by dengue and other NTDs, is perhaps the key reason why dengue should continue to be considered an NTD.  相似文献   

12.
Weather factors are widely studied for their effects on indicating dengue incidence trends. However, these studies have been limited due to the complex epidemiology of dengue, which involves dynamic interplay of multiple factors such as herd immunity within a population, distinct serotypes of the virus, environmental factors and intervention programs. In this study, we investigate the impact of weather factors on dengue in Singapore, considering the disease epidemiology and profile of virus serotypes. A Poisson regression combined with Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) was used to evaluate and compare the impact of weekly Absolute Humidity (AH) and other weather factors (mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and wind speed) on dengue incidence from 2001 to 2009. The same analysis was also performed on three sub-periods, defined by predominant circulating serotypes. The performance of DLNM regression models were then evaluated through the Akaike''s Information Criterion. From the correlation and DLNM regression modeling analyses of the studied period, AH was found to be a better predictor for modeling dengue incidence than the other unique weather variables. Whilst mean temperature (MeanT) also showed significant correlation with dengue incidence, the relationship between AH or MeanT and dengue incidence, however, varied in the three sub-periods. Our results showed that AH had a more stable impact on dengue incidence than temperature when virological factors were taken into consideration. AH appeared to be the most consistent factor in modeling dengue incidence in Singapore. Considering the changes in dominant serotypes, the improvements in vector control programs and the inconsistent weather patterns observed in the sub-periods, the impact of weather on dengue is modulated by these other factors. Future studies on the impact of climate change on dengue need to take all the other contributing factors into consideration in order to make meaningful public policy recommendations.  相似文献   

13.
The Northern Territory (NT) of Australia is currently free of the dengue mosquito Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L). However, on 17 February 2004, two Ae. aegypti adults were captured in two routine CO2‐baited encephalitis virus surveillance traps in Tennant Creek, located 990 km south of Darwin in the NT. The detection triggered an immediate survey and control response undertaken by the NT Department of Health and Community Services, followed by a Commonwealth of Australia‐funded Ae. aegypti elimination program. This report details the methods and results of the detection and subsequent elimination activities that were carried out between 2004 and 2006, returning the NT to its dengue vector‐free status. There have been very few successful Ae. aegypti elimination programs in the world. This purposeful mosquito elimination for Australia was officially declared on 5 April 2006.  相似文献   

14.
Transmission of dengue virus is a complex process with interactions between virus, mosquitoes and humans, influenced by multiple factors simultaneously. Studies have examined the impact of climate or socio-ecological factors on dengue, or only analyzed the individual effects of each single factor on dengue transmission. However, little research has addressed the interactive effects by multiple factors on dengue incidence. This study uses the geographical detector method to investigate the interactive effect of climate and socio-ecological factors on dengue incidence from two perspectives: over a long-time series and during outbreak periods; and surmised on the possibility of dengue outbreaks in the future. Results suggest that the temperature plays a dominant role in the long-time series of dengue transmission, while socio-ecological factors have great explanatory power for dengue outbreaks. The interactive effect of any two factors is greater than the impact of single factor on dengue transmission, and the interactions of pairs of climate and socio-ecological factors have more significant impact on dengue. Increasing temperature and surge in travel could cause dengue outbreaks in the future. Based on these results, three recommendations are offered regarding the prevention of dengue outbreaks: mitigating the urban heat island effect, adjusting the time and frequency of vector control intervention, and providing targeted health education to travelers at the border points. This study hopes to provide meaningful clues and a scientific basis for policymakers regarding effective interventions against dengue transmission, even during outbreaks.  相似文献   

15.
In October 2013, a locally-acquired case of dengue virus (DENV) infection was reported in Western Australia (WA) where local dengue transmission has not occurred for over 70 years. Laboratory testing confirmed recent DENV infection and the case demonstrated a clinically compatible illness. The infection was most likely acquired in the Pilbara region in the northwest of WA. Follow up investigations did not detect any other locally-acquired dengue cases or any known dengue vector species in the local region, despite intensive adult and larval mosquito surveillance, both immediately after the case was notified in October 2013 and after the start of the wet season in January 2014. The mechanism of infection with DENV in this case cannot be confirmed. However, it most likely followed a bite from a single infected mosquito vector that was transiently introduced into the Pilbara region but failed to establish a local breeding population. This case highlights the public health importance of maintaining surveillance efforts to ensure that any incursions of dengue vectors into WA are promptly identified and do not become established, particularly given the large numbers of viraemic dengue fever cases imported into WA by travellers returning from dengue-endemic regions.  相似文献   

16.
Dengue is transmitted mainly by the adult female Aedes aegypti mosquito. However, little is known about the impact of adult Aedes abundance on the risk of dengue transmission. Here we analysed nationally representative dengue case and vector surveillance data collected from Singapore, to determine the effect of adult Aedes abundance on the risk of dengue transmission. A case was an area with active dengue transmission as indicated by the presence of dengue cluster. A control was an area where no dengue cluster was reported. Using multivariate logistic regression, we analysed 88 cases and 602 controls and estimated the odds of dengue cluster formation at various adult Aedes abundance levels, estimated by the mean number of adult female Aedes per Gravitrap per week and categorised into Low, Moderate, High and Very High abundance level. We found that the risk of dengue cluster formation was positively associated with adult Ae. aegypti abundance. We observed a three to four-fold increase in the odds of dengue clusters forming in areas with High (AOR: 3.40, 95% CI: 2.09, 5.52) and Very High (AOR: 3.99, 95% CI: 2.46, 6.46) adult Aedes aegypti abundance level compared to those with low Ae. aegypti abundance level. Our study strengthens the evidence for the use of adult Aedes indices for dengue risk assessment and early warning for dengue outbreaks. Entomological indicators of adult Ae. aegypti could be used to anticipate and prioritize areas for dengue control.  相似文献   

17.
Dengue is an important disease that affects humans, and is transmitted by A. aegypti. During 2006, a total of 477 cases of hemorrhagic dengue, and 1 510 of classic dengue were recorded in Sinaloa. Due to this high impact, a study on insect abundance and distribution, as well as their relationship with dengue dispersion, was carried out from April 2008 to March 2009 in Guasave, Sinaloa. The study included a total of six sectors in the city, considering 16 colonies; besides, 96 traps were distributed in these sectors to monitor the vector population density and female number per trap. The adult density index (ADI) and traps positive index (TPI) were calculated, and data were used to obtain the monthly dengue dispersion maps. The highest abundance of female (137 and 139) was found in July and August. In August and September the sectors 2, 4 and 6 showed the highest ADI values 2.44, 3.35 and 2.290, while TPI values were 56.25, 58.82 and 61.54, with the highest epidemiology dengue dispersion. The Pearson correlation (p < 0.05) showed better values with the precipitation (r = 0.80) than mean temperature (r = 0.76) with zero lag months; while the cases of classic dengue and hemorrhagic dengue (CD/HD) is mostly related with the precipitation (r = 0.98), and minimum temperature (r = 0.79), with two lag months. In conclusion, the ADI and TPI index, as well as the maps obtained, allowed us to know the location of epidemiologic dengue risk areas. This information can be used to develop better control measures biological and chemical for the mosquito, in this location.  相似文献   

18.
ABSTRACT: Constant malaria monitoring and surveillance systems have been highlighted as critical for malaria elimination. The absence of robust monitoring and surveillance systems able to respond to outbreaks in a timely manner undeniably contributed to the failure of the last global attempt to eradicate malaria. Today, technological advances could allow for rapid detection of focal outbreaks and improved deployment of diagnostic and treatment supplies to areas needing support. However, optimizing diffusion activities (e.g., distributing vector controls and medicines, as well as deploying behaviour change campaigns) requires networks of diverse scholars to monitor, learn, and evaluate data and multiple organizations to coordinate their intervention activities. Surveillance systems that can gather, store and process information, from communities to national levels, in a centralized, widely accessible system will allow tailoring of surveillance and intervention efforts. Different systems and, thus reactions, will be effective in different endemic, geographical or socio-cultural contexts. Investing in carefully designed monitoring technologies, built for a multiple-acter, dynamic system, will help to improve malaria elimination efforts by improving the coordination, timing, coverage, and deployment of malaria technologies.  相似文献   

19.
BackgroundNo vaccine is currently available for dengue virus (DENV), therefore control programmes usually focus on managing mosquito vector populations. Entomological surveys provide the most common means of characterising vector populations and predicting the risk of local dengue virus transmission. Despite Indonesia being a country strongly affected by DENV, only limited information is available on the local factors affecting DENV transmission and the suitability of available survey methods for assessing risk.Conclusions/significanceOur data suggested that the utility of traditional larvae indices, which continue to be used in many dengue endemic countries, should be re-evaluated locally. The results highlight the need for validation of risk indicators and control strategies across DENV affected areas here and perhaps elsewhere in SE Asia.  相似文献   

20.
Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of exotic arboviruses (dengue, chikungunya and Zika) in Australia. Once established across much of Australia, this mosquito species remains prevalent in central and northern Queensland. In 2011, Ae. aegypti was re-discovered in the town of Gin Gin, Queensland, by health authorities during routine larval surveillance. This town is situated on a major highway that provides a distribution pathway into the highly vulnerable and populous region of the state where the species was once common. Following the detection, larval habitat and adult control activities were conducted as a public health intervention to eliminate the Ae. aegypti population and reduce the risk of exotic disease transmission. Importantly, genetic analysis revealed a homogenous cluster and small effective population vulnerable to an elimination strategy. By 2015, adult surveillance revealed the population had expanded throughout the centre of the town. In response, a collaboration between research agencies and local stakeholders activated a second control program in 2016 that included extensive community engagement, enhanced entomologic surveillance and vector control activities including the targeting of key containers, such as unsealed rainwater tanks. Here we describe a model of the public health intervention which successfully reduced the Ae. aegypti population below detection thresholds, using source reduction, insecticides and novel, intensive genetic surveillance methods. This outcome has important implications for future elimination work in small towns in regions sub-optimal for Ae. aegypti presence and reinforces the longstanding benefits of a partnership model for public health-based interventions for invasive urban mosquito species.  相似文献   

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