Prevalence and Burden of Gait Disorders in Elderly Men and Women Aged 60–97 Years: A Population-Based Study

Background

Although gait disorders are common in the elderly, the prevalence and overall burden of these disorders in the general community is not well defined.

Methods

In a cross-sectional investigation of the population-based Bruneck Study cohort, 488 community-residing elderly aged 60–97 years underwent a thorough neurological assessment including a standardized gait evaluation. Gait disorders were classified according to an accepted scheme and their associations to falls, neuropsychological measures, and quality of life were explored.

Results

Overall, 32.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 28.2%–36.4%) of participants presented with impaired gait. Prevalence increased with age (p<0.001), but 38.3% (95%CI 30.1%–47.3%) of the subjects aged 80 years or older still had a normally preserved gait. A total of 24.0% (95%CI 20.4%–28.0%) manifested neurological gait disorders, 17.4% (14.3%–21.0%) non-neurological gait problems, and 9.2% (6.9%–12.1%) a combination of both. While there was no association of neurological gait disorders with gender, non-neurological gait disorders were more frequent in women (p = 0.012). Within the group of neurological gait disorders 69.2% (95%CI 60.3%–76.9%) had a single distinct entity and 30.8% (23.1%–39.7%) had multiple neurological causes for gait impairment. Gait disorders had a significant negative impact on quantitative gait measures, but only neurological gait disorders were associated with recurrent falls (odds ratio 3.3; 95%CI 1.4–7.5; p = 0.005 for single and 7.1; 2.7–18.7; p<0.001 for multiple neurological gait disorders). Finally, we detected a significant association of gait disorders, in particular neurological gait disorders, with depressed mood, cognitive dysfunction, and compromised quality of life.

Conclusions

Gait disorders are common in the general elderly population and are associated with reduced mobility. Neurological gait disorders in particular are associated with recurrent falls, lower cognitive function, depressed mood, and diminished quality of life.     

Global Role and Burden of Influenza in Pediatric Respiratory Hospitalizations, 1982–2012: A Systematic Analysis

BackgroundThe global burden of pediatric severe respiratory illness is substantial, and influenza viruses contribute to this burden. Systematic surveillance and testing for influenza among hospitalized children has expanded globally over the past decade. However, only a fraction of the data has been used to estimate influenza burden. In this analysis, we use surveillance data to provide an estimate of influenza-associated hospitalizations among children worldwide.ConclusionsInfluenza is an important contributor to respiratory hospitalizations among young children worldwide. Increasing influenza vaccination coverage among young children and pregnant women could reduce this burden and protect infants <6 mo.     

Burden of Chagas disease in Brazil, 1990–2016: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Chagas disease continues to be an important cause of morbidity, mortality and disability in several Latin American countries, including Brazil. Using findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 (GBD, 2016), we present years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years due to Chagas disease in Brazil, by sex, age group, and Brazilian states, from 1990 to 2016. Results are reported in absolute numbers and age-standardized rates (per 100,000 population) with 95% uncertainty intervals. In 2016, 141,640 disability-adjusted life years (95% uncertainty intervals: 129,065–155,941) due to Chagas disease were estimated in Brazil, with a relative reduction of 36.7% compared with 1990 (223,879 disability-adjusted life years (95% uncertainty intervals: 209,372–238,591)). Age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rates declined at the national level (?69.7%) and in all Brazilian states between 1990 and 2016, but with different regional patterns. The decrease in the disability-adjusted life year rates was driven primarily by a consistent reduction in the years of life lost rates, the main component of total disability-adjusted life years for Chagas disease. The highest fatal and non-fatal burden due to Chagas disease was observed among males, the elderly, and in those Brazilian states encompassing important endemic areas for vector transmission in the past. Despite the consistent reduction in its burden during the period, Chagas disease is still an important and neglected cause of health lost due to premature mortality and disability in Brazil. Efforts should be made to maintain the political interest and sustainability of surveillance and control actions for Chagas disease, prevent the risk of re-emergence of vector transmission in endemic areas, and provide health care to chronically infected individuals, including early diagnosis and treatment interventions.     

Cardiovascular Disease Rates,Outcomes, and Quality of Care in Ontario Métis: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background

The burden of cardiovascular disease in the Métis, Canada’s fastest growing Aboriginal group, is not well studied. We determined rates of five cardiovascular diseases and associated outcomes in Ontario Métis, compared to the general Ontario population.

Methods

Métis persons were identified using the Métis Nation of Ontario Citizenship Registry. Métis citizens aged 20–105 were linked to Ontario health databases for the period of April 2006 to March 2011. Age- and sex-standardized prevalence and incidence of acute coronary syndromes (ACS), congestive heart failure (CHF), cerebrovascular disease (stroke), atrial fibrillation, and hypertension were compared between the Métis and the general population. Secondary outcome measures included one-year hospitalizations and mortality following the incident cardiovascular diagnosis, as well as quality-of-care measures.

Results

There were 12,550 eligible Métis persons and 10,144,002 in the general population. The adjusted prevalence of each disease was higher (p<0.05) among the Métis compared to the general population: ACS 5.3% vs. 3.0%; CHF 5.1% vs. 3.9%; stroke 1.4% vs. 1.1%; atrial fibrillation 2.1% vs. 1.4%; hypertension 34.9% vs. 29.8%. Incident ACS, stroke, and atrial fibrillation were also higher (p<0.05) among the Métis: ACS 2.4% vs. 1.5%; stroke 0.8% vs. 0.6%; atrial fibrillation 0.6% vs. 0.3%. One-year all-cause and cardiovascular-related mortality were not significantly different. Hospitalizations were higher for Métis persons with CHF (OR 1.93; 95% CI 1.34–2.78) and hypertension (OR 2.27; 95% CI 1.88–2.74). Métis with CHF made more emergency department (ED) visits in the year after diagnosis compared to non-Métis with CHF, while Métis aged ≥65 with ACS were more likely to be on beta-blockers following diagnosis.

Conclusions

The burden of cardiovascular disease was markedly higher in the Métis compared to the general population: prevalence rates for five cardiovascular conditions were 25% to 77% higher. Métis persons with CHF had more frequent hospitalizations and ED visits following their diagnosis.     

The Burden of Acute Disease in Mahajanga,Madagascar – A 21 Month Study

Background

Efforts to develop effective and regionally-appropriate emergency care systems in sub-Saharan Africa are hindered by a lack of data on both the burden of disease in the region and on the state of existing care delivery mechanisms. This study describes the burden of acute disease presenting to an emergency unit in Mahajanga, Madagascar.

Methods and Findings

Handwritten patient registries on all emergency department patients presenting between 1 January 2011 and 30 September 2012 were reviewed and data entered into a database. Data included age, sex, diagnosis, and disposition. We classified diagnoses into Clinical Classifications Software (CCS) multi-level categories. The population was 53.5% male, with a median age of 31 years. The five most common presenting conditions were 1) Superficial injury; contusion, 2) Open wounds of head; neck; and trunk, 3) Open wounds of extremities, 4) Intracranial injury, and 5) Unspecified injury and poisoning. Trauma accounted for 48%, Infectious Disease for 15%, Mental Health 6.1%, Noncommunicable 29%, and Neoplasms 1.2%. The acuity seen was high, with an admission rate of 43%. Trauma was the most common reason for admission, representing 19% of admitted patients.

Conclusions

This study describes the burden of acute disease at a large referral center in northern Madagascar. The Centre Hôpitalier Universitaire de Mahajanga sees a high volume of acutely ill and injured patients. Similar to other reports from the region, trauma is the most common pathology observed, though infectious disease was responsible for the majority of adult mortality. Typhoid fever other intestinal infections were the most lethal CCS-coded pathologies. By utilizing a widely understood classification system, we are able to highlight contrasts between Mahajanga’s acute and overall disease burden as well as make comparisons between this region and the rest of the globe. We hope this study will serve to guide the development of context-appropriate emergency medicine systems in the region.     

Study on the Trend and Disease Burden of Injury Deaths in Chinese Population, 2004–2010

Injuries are a growing public health concern in China, accounting for more than 30% of all Person Years of Life Lost (PYLL) due to premature mortality. This study analyzes the trend and disease burden of injury deaths in Chinese population from 2004 to 2010, using data from the National Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs) system, as injury deaths are classified based on the International Classification of Disease-10^th Revision (ICD-10). We observed that injury death accounted for nearly 10% of all deaths in China throughout the period 2004–2010, and the injury mortality rates were higher in males than those in females, and higher in rural areas than in urban areas. Traffic crashes (33.79–38.47% of all injury deaths) and suicides (16.20–22.01%) were the two leading causes of injury deaths. Alarmingly, suicide surpassed traffic crashes as the leading cause of injury mortality in rural females, yet adults aged 65 and older suffered the greatest number of fatal falls (20,701 deaths, 2004–2010). The burden of injury among men (72.11%) was about three times more than that of women''s (28.89%). This study provides indispensible evidence that China Authority needs to improve the surveillance and deterrence of three major types of injuries: Traffic-related injury deaths should be targeted for injury prevention activities in all population, people aged 65+ should be encouraged to take individual fall precautions, and prevention of suicidal behavior in rural females should be another key priority for the government of China.     

Epidemiological Trends of Dengue Disease in Mexico (2000–2011): A Systematic Literature Search and Analysis

This systematic literature review describes the epidemiology of dengue disease in Mexico (2000–2011). The annual number of uncomplicated dengue cases reported increased from 1,714 in 2000 to 15,424 in 2011 (incidence rates of 1.72 and 14.12 per 100,000 population, respectively). Peaks were observed in 2002, 2007, and 2009. Coastal states were most affected by dengue disease. The age distribution pattern showed an increasing number of cases during childhood, a peak at 10–20 years, and a gradual decline during adulthood. All four dengue virus serotypes were detected. Although national surveillance is in place, there are knowledge gaps relating to asymptomatic cases, primary/secondary infections, and seroprevalence rates of infection in all age strata. Under-reporting of the clinical spectrum of the disease is also problematic. Dengue disease remains a serious public health problem in Mexico.     

Disparities and Trends in Birth Outcomes,Perinatal and Infant Mortality in Aboriginal vs. Non-Aboriginal Populations: A Population-Based Study in Quebec,Canada 1996–2010

Background

Aboriginal populations are at substantially higher risks of adverse birth outcomes, perinatal and infant mortality than their non-Aboriginal counterparts even in developed countries including Australia, U.S. and Canada. There is a lack of data on recent trends in Canada.

Methods

We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study (n = 254,410) using the linked vital events registry databases for singleton births in Quebec 1996–2010. Aboriginal (First Nations, Inuit) births were identified by mother tongue, place of residence and Indian Registration System membership. Outcomes included preterm birth, small-for-gestational-age, large-for-gestational-age, low birth weight, high birth weight, stillbirth, neonatal death, postneonatal death, perinatal death and infant death.

Results

Perinatal and infant mortality rates were 1.47 and 1.80 times higher in First Nations (10.1 and 7.3 per 1000, respectively), and 2.37 and 4.46 times higher in Inuit (16.3 and 18.1 per 1000, respectively) relative to non-Aboriginal (6.9 and 4.1 per 1000, respectively) births (all p<0.001). Compared to non-Aboriginal births, preterm birth rates were persistently (1.7–1.8 times) higher in Inuit, large-for-gestational-age birth rates were persistently (2.7–3.0 times) higher in First Nations births over the study period. Between 1996–2000 and 2006–2010, as compared to non-Aboriginal infants, the relative risk disparities increased for infant mortality (from 4.10 to 5.19 times) in Inuit, and for postneonatal mortality in Inuit (from 6.97 to 12.33 times) or First Nations (from 3.76 to 4.25 times) infants. Adjusting for maternal characteristics (age, marital status, parity, education and rural vs. urban residence) attenuated the risk differences, but significantly elevated risks remained in both Inuit and First Nations births for the risks of perinatal mortality (1.70 and 1.28 times, respectively), infant mortality (3.66 and 1.47 times, respectively) and postneonatal mortality (6.01 and 2.28 times, respectively) in Inuit and First Nations infants (all p<0.001).

Conclusions

Aboriginal vs. non-Aboriginal disparities in adverse birth outcomes, perinatal and infant mortality are persistent or worsening over the recent decade in Quebec, strongly suggesting the needs for interventions to improve perinatal and infant health in Aboriginal populations, and for monitoring the trends in other regions in Canada.     

Fetal Growth and Risk of Stillbirth: A Population-Based Case–Control Study

Background

Stillbirth is strongly related to impaired fetal growth. However, the relationship between fetal growth and stillbirth is difficult to determine because of uncertainty in the timing of death and confounding characteristics affecting normal fetal growth.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a population-based case–control study of all stillbirths and a representative sample of live births in 59 hospitals in five geographic areas in the US. Fetal growth abnormalities were categorized as small for gestational age (SGA) (<10th percentile) or large for gestational age (LGA) (>90th percentile) at death (stillbirth) or delivery (live birth) using population, ultrasound, and individualized norms. Gestational age at death was determined using an algorithm that considered the time-of-death interval, postmortem examination, and reliability of the gestational age estimate. Data were weighted to account for the sampling design and differential participation rates in various subgroups. Among 527 singleton stillbirths and 1,821 singleton live births studied, stillbirth was associated with SGA based on population, ultrasound, and individualized norms (odds ratio [OR] [95% CI]: 3.0 [2.2 to 4.0]; 4.7 [3.7 to 5.9]; 4.6 [3.6 to 5.9], respectively). LGA was also associated with increased risk of stillbirth using ultrasound and individualized norms (OR [95% CI]: 3.5 [2.4 to 5.0]; 2.3 [1.7 to 3.1], respectively), but not population norms (OR [95% CI]: 0.6 [0.4 to 1.0]). The associations were stronger with more severe SGA and LGA (<5th and >95th percentile). Analyses adjusted for stillbirth risk factors, subset analyses excluding potential confounders, and analyses in preterm and term pregnancies showed similar patterns of association. In this study 70% of cases and 63% of controls agreed to participate. Analysis weights accounted for differences between consenting and non-consenting women. Some of the characteristics used for individualized fetal growth estimates were missing and were replaced with reference values. However, a sensitivity analysis using individualized norms based on the subset of stillbirths and live births with non-missing variables showed similar findings.

Conclusions

Stillbirth is associated with both growth restriction and excessive fetal growth. These findings suggest that, contrary to current practices and recommendations, stillbirth prevention strategies should focus on both severe SGA and severe LGA pregnancies. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Diabetes Mellitus and the Risk of Alzheimer’s Disease: A Nationwide Population-Based Study

Objectives

Possible association between diabetes mellitus (DM) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) has been controversial. This study used a nationwide population-based dataset to investigate the relationship between DM and subsequent AD incidence.

Methods

Data were collected from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database, which released a cohort dataset of 1,000,000 randomly sampled people and confirmed it to be representative of the Taiwanese population. We identified 71,433 patients newly diagnosed with diabetes (age 58.74±14.02 years) since January 1997. Using propensity score, we matched them with 71,311 non-diabetic subjects by time of enrollment, age, gender, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and previous stroke history. All the patients were followed up to December 31, 2007. The endpoint of the study was occurrence of AD.

Results

Over a maximum 11 years of follow-up, diabetic patients experienced a higher incidence of AD than non-diabetic subjects (0.48% vs. 0.37%, p<0.001). After Cox proportional hazard regression model analysis, DM (hazard ratio [HR], 1.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.50–2.07, p<0.001), age (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.10–1.12, p<0.001), female gender (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.06–1.46, p = 0.008), hypertension (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.07–1.59, p = 0.01), previous stroke history (HR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.28–2.50, p<0.001), and urbanization status (metropolis, HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.07–1.63, p = 0.009) were independently associated with the increased risk of AD. Neither monotherapy nor combination therapy with oral antidiabetic medications were associated with the risk of AD after adjusting for underlying risk factors and the duration of DM since diagnosis. However, combination therapy with insulin was found to be associated with greater risk of AD (HR, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.04–4.52, p = 0.039).

Conclusion

Newly diagnosed DM was associated with increased risk of AD. Use of hypoglycemic agents did not ameliorate the risk.     

Population-Based Hospitalization Burden of Influenza A Virus Subtypes and Antigenic Drift Variants in Children in Hong Kong (2004–2011)

Objectives

We aim to document and analyze influenza hospitalization burden in light of antigenic changes in circulating influenza viruses in Hong Kong.

Methods

The pediatric age-specific rates of influenza A hospitalization in Hong Kong for 2004–2011 which encompassed the emergence of H1N1pdm09 were extrapolated from admissions to 2 hospitals that together catered for 72.5% of all pediatric admissions on Hong Kong Island. Influenza A was detected by immunofluorescence, culture and/or PCR on nasopharyngeal aspirates.

Results

Influenza A caused high rates of hospitalization in children with year to year fluctuations. The highest hospitalization burden was seen with H1N1pdm09 in 2009. Additional factors affecting hospitalization were the proportion of viral circulation among different subtypes, and antigenic drifts. Taking these into effect, an H3N2 dominated year was not always associated with more hospitalizations than a ‘seasonal’ H1N1 year. Hospitalization burden was higher in seasons when drifted viruses of H1N1 or H3N2 dominated. No hospitalization was documented in infants <6 months of age during years when an undrifted virus circulated (2006 for H1N1 and 2008 for H3N2) but significant hospitalization was observed with a drifted or shifted virus (2004, 2005, 2007 and 2010 for H3N2, and 2009 for H1N1pdm09).

Conclusions

We documented a consistently high pediatric hospitalization burden of influenza A. Knowledge of antigenic changes and their proportion of circulation aids in the interpretation of impact of the subtypes. Year-to-year variation in hospitalization rates in young infants appeared to correlate with antigenic variation, lending support to the role of protection from maternal antibodies.     

Epidemiological Trends of Dengue Disease in Thailand (2000–2011): A Systematic Literature Review

A literature survey and analysis was conducted to describe the epidemiology of dengue disease in Thailand reported between 2000 and 2011. The literature search identified 610 relevant sources, 40 of which fulfilled the inclusion criteria defined in the review protocol. Peaks in the number of cases occurred during the review period in 2001, 2002, 2008 and 2010. A shift in age group predominance towards older ages continued through the review period. Disease incidence and deaths remained highest in children aged ≤15 years and case fatality rates were highest in young children. Heterogeneous geographical patterns were observed with higher incidence rates reported in the Southern region and serotype distribution varied in time and place. Gaps identified in epidemiological knowledge regarding dengue disease in Thailand provide several avenues for future research, in particular studies of seroprevalence.

Protocol registration

PROSPERO CRD42012002170     

Circulation of Coxsackievirus A10 and A6 in Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease in China, 2009–2011

Coxsackieviruses A10 (CV-A10) and A6 (CV-A6) have been associated with increasingly occurred sporadic hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) cases and outbreak events globally. However, our understanding of epidemiological and genetic characteristics of these new agents remains far from complete. This study was to explore the circulation of CV-A10 and CV-A6 in HFMD and their genetic characteristics in China. A hospital based surveillance was performed in three heavily inflicted regions with HFMD from March 2009 to August 2011. Feces samples were collected from children with clinical diagnosis of HFMD. The detection and genotyping of enteroviruses was performed by real-time PCR and sequencing of 5′UTR/VP1 regions. Phylogenetic analysis and selection pressure were performed based on the VP1 sequences. Logistic regression model was used to identify the effect of predominant enterovirus serotypes in causing severe HFMD. The results showed 92.0% of 1748 feces samples were detected positive for enterovirus, with the most frequently presented serotypes as EV-71 (944, 54.0%) and CV-A16 (451, 25.8%). CV-A10 and CV-A6 were detected as a sole pathogen in 82 (4.7%) and 44 (2.5%) cases, respectively. Infection with CV-A10 and EV-71 were independently associated with high risk of severe HFMD (OR = 2.66, 95% CI: 1.40–5.06; OR = 4.81, 95% CI: 3.07–7.53), when adjusted for age and sex. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that distinct geographic and temporal origins correlated with the gene clusters based on VP1 sequences. An overall ω value of the VP1 was 0.046 for CV-A10 and 0.047 for CV-A6, and no positively selected site was detected in VP1 of both CV-A10 and CV-A6, indicating that purifying selection shaped the evolution of CV-A10 and CV-A6. Our study demonstrates variety of enterovirus genotypes as viral pathogens in causing HFMD in China. CV-A10 and CV-A6 were co-circulating together with EV-71 and CV-A16 in recent years. CV-A10 infection might also be independently associated with severe HFMD.     

Trends and inequities in colorectal cancer screening participation in Ontario,Canada, 2005–2011

Background: Participation in screening tests for colorectal cancer (CRC) is generally low in Ontario, Canada. In addition, inequities in participation exist including lower participation among low-income individuals, males and individuals living in rural areas. In April 2008, Colon Cancer Check (CCC) program, the province-wide CRC screening program, was launched in Ontario. This study describes the trends and inequities in CRC screening participation three years before and three years after the CCC, and assesses the effect of the program on CRC screening participation, overall and among certain population groups. Methods: We used administrative data to identify cohorts of individuals eligible for CRC screening in fiscal years 2005–2011. We calculated the age-standardized percent of Fecal Occult Blood Test (FOBT) participation, large bowel endoscopy participation, and being ‘up-to-date’ with CRC screening tests. Results: From 2005 to 2011, FOBT participation increased from 7.6% to 14.8%, large bowel endoscopy participation from 3.4% to 5.7%, and ‘up-to-date’ with CRC screening from 27.2% to 41.3%. Before the launch of the CCC program, the quarterly increase in FOBT participation was 0.07% (p = 0.19), increased immediately after the launch (1.8%, p < 0.01), followed by a decline (?0.08%, p = 0.08), returning to its pre-program increase rate. We noted a significant decrease in FOBT participation every summer (?0.44%, p < 0.01). The CCC program had minimal effect on large bowel endoscopy participation. Before the launch of the CCC program, the quarterly increase in ‘up-to-date’ with CRC screening was 0.9% (p < 0.01), increased immediately after the launch (2.5%, p = 0.05), followed by a modest decline thereafter (?0.59%, p < 0.02). From 2005 to 2011, recent residents living in low-income neighborhoods were consistently and significantly less likely to have a FOBT and be ‘up-to-date’ with CRC screening than long-term residents living in high-income neighborhoods (2.9–4.5%; 14.7–17.3% respectively). Pre-CCC inequities in CRC participation persisted after the launch of the program. Conclusion: CRC testing was increasing in Ontario from 2005. An immediate increase in CRC testing, FOBT in particular, occurred after the launch of the CCC program, followed by a return to its pre-CCC increase rate thereafter. Future efforts are needed to improve screening participation and address inequities.     

Analysing Recent Socioeconomic Trends in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England, 2000–2007: A Population Modelling Study

Background

Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in England fell by approximately 6% every year between 2000 and 2007. However, rates fell differentially between social groups with inequalities actually widening. We sought to describe the extent to which this reduction in CHD mortality was attributable to changes in either levels of risk factors or treatment uptake, both across and within socioeconomic groups.

Methods and Findings

A widely used and replicated epidemiological model was used to synthesise estimates stratified by age, gender, and area deprivation quintiles for the English population aged 25 and older between 2000 and 2007. Mortality rates fell, with approximately 38,000 fewer CHD deaths in 2007. The model explained about 86% (95% uncertainty interval: 65%–107%) of this mortality fall. Decreases in major cardiovascular risk factors contributed approximately 34% (21%–47%) to the overall decline in CHD mortality: ranging from about 44% (31%–61%) in the most deprived to 29% (16%–42%) in the most affluent quintile. The biggest contribution came from a substantial fall in systolic blood pressure in the population not on hypertension medication (29%; 18%–40%); more so in deprived (37%) than in affluent (25%) areas. Other risk factor contributions were relatively modest across all social groups: total cholesterol (6%), smoking (3%), and physical activity (2%). Furthermore, these benefits were partly negated by mortality increases attributable to rises in body mass index and diabetes (−9%; −17% to −3%), particularly in more deprived quintiles. Treatments accounted for approximately 52% (40%–70%) of the mortality decline, equitably distributed across all social groups. Lipid reduction (14%), chronic angina treatment (13%), and secondary prevention (11%) made the largest medical contributions.

Conclusions

The model suggests that approximately half the recent CHD mortality fall in England was attributable to improved treatment uptake. This benefit occurred evenly across all social groups. However, opposing trends in major risk factors meant that their net contribution amounted to just over a third of the CHD deaths averted; these also varied substantially by socioeconomic group. Powerful and equitable evidence-based population-wide policy interventions exist; these should now be urgently implemented to effectively tackle persistent inequalities. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Influenza Illness and Hospitalizations Averted by Influenza Vaccination in the United States, 2005–2011

Context

The goal of influenza vaccination programs is to reduce influenza-associated disease outcomes. Therefore, estimating the reduced burden of influenza as a result of vaccination over time and by age group would allow for a clear understanding of the value of influenza vaccines in the US, and of areas where improvements could lead to greatest benefits.

Objective

To estimate the direct effect of influenza vaccination in the US in terms of averted number of cases, medically-attended cases, and hospitalizations over six recent influenza seasons.

Design

Using existing surveillance data, we present a method for assessing the impact of influenza vaccination where impact is defined as either the number of averted outcomes or as the prevented disease fraction (the number of cases estimated to have been averted relative to the number of cases that would have occurred in the absence of vaccination).

Results

We estimated that during our 6-year study period, the number of influenza illnesses averted by vaccination ranged from a low of approximately 1.1 million (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.6–1.7 million) during the 2006–2007 season to a high of 5 million (CI 2.9–8.6 million) during the 2010–2011 season while the number of averted hospitalizations ranged from a low of 7,700 (CI 3,700–14,100) in 2009–2010 to a high of 40,400 (CI 20,800–73,000) in 2010–2011. Prevented fractions varied across age groups and over time. The highest prevented fraction in the study period was observed in 2010–2011, reflecting the post-pandemic expansion of vaccination coverage.

Conclusions

Influenza vaccination programs in the US produce a substantial health benefit in terms of averted cases, clinic visits and hospitalizations. Our results underscore the potential for additional disease prevention through increased vaccination coverage, particularly among nonelderly adults, and increased vaccine effectiveness, particularly among the elderly.     

The Secular Trends in the Incidence Rate and Outcomes of Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest in Taiwan—A Nationwide Population-Based Study

Objective

This study investigated the trends in incidence and mortality of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), as well as factors associated with OHCA outcomes in Taiwan.

Methods

Our study included OHCA patients requiring cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) upon arrival at the hospital. We used national time-series data on annual OHCA incidence rates and mortality rates from 2000 to 2012, and individual demographic and clinical data for all OHCA patients requiring mechanical ventilation (MV) care from March of 2010 to September of 2011. Analytic techniques included the time-series regression and the logistic regression.

Results

There were 117,787 OHCAs in total. The overall incidence rate during the 13 years was 51.1 per 100,000 persons, and the secular trend indicates a sharp increase in the early 2000s and a decrease afterwards. The trend in mortality was also curvilinear, revealing a substantial increase in the early 2000s, a subsequent steep decline and finally a modest increase. Both the 30-day and 180-day mortality rates had a long-term decreasing trend over the period (p<0.01). For both incidence and mortality rates, a significant second-order autoregressive effect emerged. Among OHCA patients with MV, 1-day, 30-day and 180-day mortality rates were 31.3%, 75.8%, and 86.0%, respectively. In this cohort, older age, the female gender, and a Charlson comorbidity index score ≥ 2 were associated with higher 180-day mortality; patients delivered to regional hospitals and those residing in non-metropolitan areas had higher death risk.

Conclusions

Overall, both the 30-day and the 180-day mortality rates after OHCA had a long-term decreasing trend, while the 1-day mortality had no long-term decline. Among OHCA patients requiring MV, those delivered to regional hospitals and those residing in non-metropolitan areas tended to have higher mortality, suggesting a need for effort to further standardize and improve in-hospital care across hospitals and to advance pre-hospital care in non-metropolitan areas.     

Prevalence of Consensual Male–Male Sex and Sexual Violence,and Associations with HIV in South Africa: A Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study

Background

In sub-Saharan Africa the population prevalence of men who have sex with men (MSM) is unknown, as is the population prevalence of male-on-male sexual violence, and whether male-on-male sexual violence may relate to HIV risk. This paper describes lifetime prevalence of consensual male–male sexual behavior and male-on-male sexual violence (victimization and perpetration) in two South African provinces, socio-demographic factors associated with these experiences, and associations with HIV serostatus.

Methods and Findings

In a cross-sectional study conducted in 2008, men aged 18–49 y from randomly selected households in the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces provided anonymous survey data and dried blood spots for HIV serostatus assessment. Interviews were completed in 1,737 of 2,298 (75.6%) of enumerated and eligible households. From these households, 1,705 men (97.1%) provided data on lifetime history of same-sex experiences, and 1,220 (70.2%) also provided dried blood spots for HIV testing. 5.4% (n = 92) of participants reported a lifetime history of any consensual sexual activity with another man; 9.6% (n = 164) reported any sexual victimization by a man, and 3.0% (n = 51) reported perpetrating sexual violence against another man. 85.0% (n = 79) of men with a history of consensual sex with men reported having a current female partner, and 27.7% (n = 26) reported having a current male partner. Of the latter, 80.6% (n = 21/26) also reported having a female partner. Men reporting a history of consensual male–male sexual behavior are more likely to have been a victim of male-on-male sexual violence (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 7.24; 95% CI 4.26–12.3), and to have perpetrated sexual violence against another man (aOR = 3.10; 95% CI 1.22–7.90). Men reporting consensual oral/anal sex with a man were more likely to be HIV+ than men with no such history (aOR = 3.11; 95% CI 1.24–7.80). Men who had raped a man were more likely to be HIV+ than non-perpetrators (aOR = 3.58; 95% CI 1.17–10.9).

Conclusions

In this sample, one in 20 men (5.4%) reported lifetime consensual sexual contact with a man, while about one in ten (9.6%) reported experience of male-on-male sexual violence victimization. Men who reported having had sex with men were more likely to be HIV+, as were men who reported perpetrating sexual violence towards other men. Whilst there was no direct measure of male–female concurrency (having overlapping sexual relationships with men and women), the data suggest that this may have been common. These findings suggest that HIV prevention messages regarding male–male sex in South Africa should be mainstreamed with prevention messages for the general population, and sexual health interventions and HIV prevention interventions for South African men should explicitly address male-on-male sexual violence. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary