Sensitivity of tropical forests to climate change in the humid tropics of north Queensland

An analysis using an artificial neural network model suggests that the tropical forests of north Queensland are highly sensitive to climate change within the range that is likely to occur in the next 50–100 years. The distribution and extent of environments suitable for 15 structural forest types were estimated, using the model, in 10 climate scenarios that include warming up to 1°C and altered precipitation from –10% to +20%. Large changes in the distribution of forest environments are predicted with even minor climate change. Increased precipitation favours some rainforest types, whereas decreased rainfall increases the area suitable for forests dominated by sclerophyllous genera such as Eucalyptus and Allocasuarina. Rainforest environments respond differentially to increased temperature. The area of lowland mesophyll vine forest environments increases with warming, whereas upland complex notophyll vine forest environments respond either positively or negatively to temperature, depending on precipitation. Highland rainforest environments (simple notophyll and simple microphyll vine fern forests and thickets), the habitat for many of the region’s endemic vertebrates, decrease by 50% with only a 1°C warming. Estimates of the stress to present forests resulting from spatial shifts of forest environments (assuming no change in the present forest distributions) indicate that several forest types would be highly stressed by a 1°C warming and most are sensitive to any change in rainfall. Most forests will experience climates in the near future that are more appropriate to some other structural forest type. Thus, the propensity for ecological change in the region is high and, in the long term, significant shifts in the extent and spatial distribution of forests are likely. A detailed spatial analysis of the sensitivity to climate change indicates that the strongest effects of climate change will be experienced at boundaries between forest classes and in ecotonal communities between rainforest and open woodland.     

Forests growing under dry conditions have higher hydrological resilience to drought than do more humid forests

More frequent and intense droughts are projected during the next century, potentially changing the hydrological balances in many forested catchments. Although the impacts of droughts on forest functionality have been vastly studied, little attention has been given to studying the effect of droughts on forest hydrology. Here, we use the Budyko framework and two recently introduced Budyko metrics (deviation and elasticity) to study the changes in the water yields (rainfall minus evapotranspiration) of forested catchments following a climatic drought (2006–2010) in pine forests distributed along a rainfall gradient (P = 280–820 mm yr^?1) in the Eastern Mediterranean (aridity factor = 0.17–0.56). We use a satellite‐based model and meteorological information to calculate the Budyko metrics. The relative water yield ranged from 48% to 8% (from the rainfall) in humid to dry forests and was mainly associated with rainfall amount (increasing with increased rainfall amount) and bedrock type (higher on hard bedrocks). Forest elasticity was larger in forests growing under drier conditions, implying that drier forests have more predictable responses to drought, according to the Budyko framework, compared to forests growing under more humid conditions. In this context, younger forests were shown more elastic than older forests. Dynamic deviation, which is defined as the water yield departure from the Budyko curve, was positive in all forests (i.e., less‐than‐expected water yields according to Budyko's curve), increasing with drought severity, suggesting lower hydrological resistance to drought in forests suffering from larger rainfall reductions. However, the dynamic deviation significantly decreased in forests that experienced relatively cooler conditions during the drought period. Our results suggest that forests growing under permanent dry conditions might develop a range of hydrological and eco‐physiological adjustments to drought leading to higher hydrological resilience. In the context of predicted climate change, such adjustments are key factors in sustaining forested catchments in water‐limited regions.     

Temperature and rainfall interact to control carbon cycling in tropical forests

Tropical forests dominate global terrestrial carbon (C) exchange, and recent droughts in the Amazon Basin have contributed to short‐term declines in terrestrial carbon dioxide uptake and storage. However, the effects of longer‐term climate variability on tropical forest carbon dynamics are still not well understood. We synthesised field data from more than 150 tropical forest sites to explore how climate regulates tropical forest aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and organic matter decomposition, and combined those data with two existing databases to explore climate – C relationships globally. While previous analyses have focused on the effects of either temperature or rainfall on ANPP, our results highlight the importance of interactions between temperature and rainfall on the C cycle. In cool forests (< 20 °C), high rainfall slowed rates of C cycling, but in warm tropical forests (> 20 °C) it consistently enhanced both ANPP and decomposition. At the global scale, our analysis showed an increase in ANPP with rainfall in relatively warm sites, inconsistent with declines in ANPP with rainfall reported previously. Overall, our results alter our understanding of climate – C cycle relationships, with high precipitation accelerating rates of C exchange with the atmosphere in the most productive biome on earth.     

Response of an old‐growth tropical rainforest to transient high temperature and drought

Tropical rainforests have experienced episodes of severe heat and drought in recent decades, and climate models project a warmer and potentially drier tropical climate over this century. However, likely responses of tropical rainforests are poorly understood due to a lack of frequent long‐term measurements of forest structure and dynamics. We analyzed a 12‐year record (1999–2010) of 47 817 annual measurements of canopy height to characterize the response of an old‐growth Neotropical rainforest to the severe heat and drought associated with the 1997–1998 El Niño. Well‐drained soils on slopes and plateaus experienced a threefold increase in the fraction of the landscape in gaps (≤2 m) and a reduction in the fraction in high canopy (>15 m) causing distributions of canopy height to depart from equilibrium for a period of 2–3 years. In contrast, forests on low‐lying alluvial terraces remained in equilibrium and were nearly half as likely to experience upper canopy (>15 m) disturbance over the 12 years of observation. Variation in forest response across topographic positions suggests that tropical rainforests are more sensitive to moisture deficits than high temperature and that topography likely structures landscape‐level variation in the severity of drought impacts.     

Fruiting phenology is linked to rainfall variability in a tropical rain forest

As the influence of climate change on tropical forests becomes apparent, more studies are needed to understand how changes in climatic variables such as rainfall are likely to affect tree phenology. Using a twelve‐year dataset (2005–2016), we studied the impact of seasonal rainfall patterns on the fruiting phenology of 69 tree species in the rain forest of southeastern Madagascar. We found that average annual rainfall in this region has increased by >800 mm (23%) during this period relative to that recorded for the previous 40 years and was highly variable both within and between years. Higher monthly measures of fruiting richness and the intensity of fruiting in our sample community were associated with significantly higher levels of rainfall. We also found that less rainfall during the dry season, but not the wet season, was associated with a significant shift toward later timing of peak richness and peak intensity of fruiting in the subsequent 12 months; however, this pattern was driven primarily by an extreme drought event that occurred during the study period. Longer time scales of phenology data are needed to see whether this pattern is consistent. Madagascar is expected to experience more extremes in rainfall and drought with increasing climate change. Thus, the linkages between variable precipitation and the fruiting phenology of forest trees will have important consequences for understanding plant reproduction and the ability of Madagascar's wildlife to cope with a changing climate.     

CpDNA-based species identification and phylogeography: application to African tropical tree species

Despite the importance of the African tropical rainforests as a hotspot of biodiversity, their history and the processes that have structured their biodiversity are understood poorly. With respect to past demographic processes, new insights can be gained through characterizing the distribution of genetic diversity. However, few studies of this type have been conducted in Central Africa, where the identification of species in the field can be difficult. We examine here the distribution of chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) diversity in Lower Guinea in two tree species that are difficult to distinguish, Erythrophleum ivorense and Erythrophleum suaveolens (Fabaceae). By using a blind-sampling approach and comparing molecular and morphological markers, we first identified retrospectively all sampled individuals and determined the limits of the distribution of each species. We then performed a phylogeographic study using the same genetic data set. The two species displayed essentially parapatric distributions that were correlated well with the rainfall gradient, which indicated different ecological requirements. In addition, a phylogeographic structure was found for E. suaveolens and, for both species, substantially higher levels of diversity and allelic endemism were observed in the south (Gabon) than in the north (Cameroon) of the Lower Guinea region. This finding indicated different histories of population demographics for the two species, which might reflect different responses to Quaternary climate changes. We suggest that a recent period of forest perturbation, which might have been caused by humans, favoured the spread of these two species and that their poor recruitment at present results from natural succession in their forest formations.     

Response of Amazonian forests to mid-Holocene drought: A model-data comparison

There is a major concern for the fate of Amazonia over the coming century in the face of anthropogenic climate change. A key area of uncertainty is the scale of rainforest dieback to be expected under a future, drier climate. In this study, we use the middle Holocene (ca. 6000 years before present) as an approximate analogue for a drier future, given that palaeoclimate data show much of Amazonia was significantly drier than present at this time. Here, we use an ensemble of climate and vegetation models to explore the sensitivity of Amazonian biomes to mid-Holocene climate change. For this, we employ three dynamic vegetation models (JULES, IBIS, and SDGVM) forced by the bias-corrected mid-Holocene climate simulations from seven models that participated in the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 3 (PMIP3). These model outputs are compared with a multi-proxy palaeoecological dataset to gain a better understanding of where in Amazonia we have most confidence in the mid-Holocene vegetation simulations. A robust feature of all simulations and palaeodata is that the central Amazonian rainforest biome is unaffected by mid-Holocene drought. Greater divergence in mid-Holocene simulations exists in ecotonal eastern and southern Amazonia. Vegetation models driven with climate models that simulate a drier mid-Holocene (100–150 mm per year decrease) better capture the observed (palaeodata) tropical forest dieback in these areas. Based on the relationship between simulated rainfall decrease and vegetation change, we find indications that in southern Amazonia the rate of tropical forest dieback was ~125,000 km² per 100 mm rainfall decrease in the mid-Holocene. This provides a baseline sensitivity of tropical forests to drought for this region (without human-driven changes to greenhouse gases, fire, and deforestation). We highlight the need for more palaeoecological and palaeoclimate data across lowland Amazonia to constrain model responses.     

Climate change reduces resilience to fire in subalpine rainforests

Climate change is affecting the distribution of species and the functioning of ecosystems. For species that are slow growing and poorly dispersed, climate change can force a lag between the distributions of species and the geographic distributions of their climatic envelopes, exposing species to the risk of extinction. Climate also governs the resilience of species and ecosystems to disturbance, such as wildfire. Here we use species distribution modelling and palaeoecology to assess and test the impact of vegetation–climate disequilibrium on the resilience of an endangered fire‐sensitive rainforest community to fires. First, we modelled the probability of occurrence of Athrotaxis spp. and Nothofagus gunnii rainforest in Tasmania (hereon “montane rainforest”) as a function of climate. We then analysed three pollen and charcoal records spanning the last 7,500 cal year BP from within both high (n = 1) and low (n = 2) probability of occurrence areas. Our study indicates that climatic change between 3,000 and 4,000 cal year bp induced a disequilibrium between montane rainforests and climate that drove a loss of resilience of these communities. Current and future climate change are likely to shift the geographic distribution of the climatic envelopes of this plant community further, suggesting that current high‐resilience locations will face a reduction in resilience. Coupled with the forecast of increasing fire activity in southern temperate regions, this heralds a significant threat to this and other slow growing, poorly dispersed and fire sensitive forest systems that are common in the southern mid to high latitudes.     

Acclimation of Russian forests to recent changes in climate

Assessments made over the past few decades have suggested that boreal forests may act as a sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, the fate of the newly accumulated carbon in the living forest biomass is not well understood, and the estimates of carbon sinks vary greatly from one assessment to another. Analysis of remote sensing data has indicated that the carbon sinks in the Russian forests are larger than what has been estimated from forest inventories. In this study, we show that over the past four decades, the allometric relationships among various plant parts have changed in the Russian forests. To this end, we employ two approaches: (1) analysis of the database, which contains 3196 sample plots; and (2) application of developed models to forest inventory data. Within the forests as a whole, when assessed at the continental scale, we detect a pronounced increase in the share of green parts (leaves and needles). However, there is a large geographical variation. The shift has been largest within the European Russia, where summer temperatures and precipitation have increased. In the Northern Taiga of Siberia, where the climate has become warmer but drier, the fraction of the green parts has decreased while the fractions of aboveground wood and roots have increased. These changes are consistent with experiments and mathematical models that predict a shift of carbon allocation to transpiring foliage with increasing temperature and lower allocation with increasing soil drought. In light of this, our results are a possible demonstration of the acclimation of trees to ongoing warming and changes in the surface water balance. Independent of the nature of the observed changes in allometric ratios, the increase in the share of green parts may have caused a misinterpretation of the satellite data and a systematic overestimation by remote sensing methods of the carbon sink for living biomass of the Russian forest.     

Interactions between rainfall, deforestation and fires during recent years in the Brazilian Amazonia

Understanding the interplay between climate and land-use dynamics is a fundamental concern for assessing the vulnerability of Amazonia to climate change. In this study, we analyse satellite-derived monthly and annual time series of rainfall, fires and deforestation to explicitly quantify the seasonal patterns and relationships between these three variables, with a particular focus on the Amazonian drought of 2005. Our results demonstrate a marked seasonality with one peak per year for all variables analysed, except deforestation. For the annual cycle, we found correlations above 90% with a time lag between variables. Deforestation and fires reach the highest values three and six months, respectively, after the peak of the rainy season. The cumulative number of hot pixels was linearly related to the size of the area deforested annually from 1998 to 2004 (r2=0.84, p=0.004). During the 2005 drought, the number of hot pixels increased 43% in relation to the expected value for a similar deforested area (approx. 19000km2). We demonstrated that anthropogenic forcing, such as land-use change, is decisive in determining the seasonality and annual patterns of fire occurrence. Moreover, droughts can significantly increase the number of fires in the region even with decreased deforestation rates. We may expect that the ongoing deforestation, currently based on slash and burn procedures, and the use of fires for land management in Amazonia will intensify the impact of droughts associated with natural climate variability or human-induced climate change and, therefore, a large area of forest edge will be under increased risk of fires.     

Niche expansion and temperature sensitivity of tropical African montane forests

Aim Climate and land‐use change will have a dramatic impact on future ecosystems through alterations to species ranges and community composition. When forming conservation strategies, correlative species distribution models are often created to assess risks for individual species. These models are based on the assumption of climatic equilibrium, such that the modern range is representative of the full range of conditions under which species could thrive. However, the palaeo‐ecological record illustrates examples of disequilibrium in species today, and recent studies suggest that many species could occur in much broader climatic settings than previously thought. Montane ecosystems are thought to be at disproportionate risk due to temperature sensitivity and restricted geographical ranges. However, in the Afrotropics the palaeo‐ecological record shows that montane forest taxa expanded into the lowlands numerous times, suggesting a possible tolerance to warm temperatures. Location Africa. Methods We integrate palaeo‐ecological and palaeo‐climatic data in order to compare climate conditions in which species are currently found with those in the past. We use species distribution models to construct potential modern ranges for Afromontane species based on modern distributions and distributions in the palaeo‐ecological record in order to evaluate the equilibrium of species ranges. Results We show that many Afromontane trees have occupied warmer climates in the past, which suggests that the current low‐elevation boundaries are not set by climate. Interestingly, the species with the largest disequilibrium between palaeo‐ and modern distributions are those whose modern distributions show the least temperature sensitivity. Mapping of species potential ranges based on modern and palaeo‐ distributions clearly shows that suitable climate conditions exist today in the lowlands for less temperature‐sensitive species. Main conclusions These results imply that the current range of these forest trees does not necessarily inform risk from climatic change, and that human land use may be the major pressure for many species in the future.     

Above-ground biomass and structure of 260 African tropical forests

We report above-ground biomass (AGB), basal area, stem density and wood mass density estimates from 260 sample plots (mean size: 1.2 ha) in intact closed-canopy tropical forests across 12 African countries. Mean AGB is 395.7 Mg dry mass ha⁻¹ (95% CI: 14.3), substantially higher than Amazonian values, with the Congo Basin and contiguous forest region attaining AGB values (429 Mg ha⁻¹) similar to those of Bornean forests, and significantly greater than East or West African forests. AGB therefore appears generally higher in palaeo- compared with neotropical forests. However, mean stem density is low (426 ± 11 stems ha⁻¹ greater than or equal to 100 mm diameter) compared with both Amazonian and Bornean forests (cf. approx. 600) and is the signature structural feature of African tropical forests. While spatial autocorrelation complicates analyses, AGB shows a positive relationship with rainfall in the driest nine months of the year, and an opposite association with the wettest three months of the year; a negative relationship with temperature; positive relationship with clay-rich soils; and negative relationships with C : N ratio (suggesting a positive soil phosphorus–AGB relationship), and soil fertility computed as the sum of base cations. The results indicate that AGB is mediated by both climate and soils, and suggest that the AGB of African closed-canopy tropical forests may be particularly sensitive to future precipitation and temperature changes.     

Mechanisms of rainforest persistence and recruitment in frequently burnt wet tropical eucalypt forests

The role of fire in governing rainforest–eucalypt forest ecotone dynamics is of theoretical interest and has conservation management implications. Several eucalypt forests in the Wet Tropics of Australia have an endangered status due to extensive conversion to rainforest. Rainforest plants are known to survive occasional low intensity fires in the eucalypt forest ecotone. However, the ability of rainforest plants to survive frequent fires remains untested. The timing of rainforest expansion is also a subject of interest, and is generally considered to be delayed until fire has been absent for several years. We used 14 years of data collected across 13 plots in the Wet Tropics of north‐eastern Australia to test predictions regarding rainforest seedling recruitment and post‐fire regenerative capacity. The 13 plots received different numbers of fires, between zero and five, over the 14‐year study. The recruitment of new rainforest plants in the ecotone was most abundant in the initial year after fire. If this post‐fire pulse of recruitment is left undisturbed, it can facilitate the subsequent germination of additional rainforest species. The removal of grass cover, whether temporarily in the immediate post‐fire environment or once a developing rainforest mid strata shades out grasses, appears crucial to abundant rainforest recruitment. A variety of tropical rainforest species can persist under a frequent fire regime through resprouting. The difference in the mode of resprouting, between ground‐level coppicing rainforest plants and canopy resprouting eucalypt forest trees, is the critical mechanism that causes regular fire to maintain an open structure in eucalypt forests. The inability of rainforest species to maintain their height when fires fully scorch their crowns, temporarily resets the forest's open structure and delays the rainforest's ability to dominate through shading out grasses to transform the ecosystem into a closed forest.     

Response of the endangered tropical dry forests to climate change and the role of Mexican Protected Areas for their conservation

Assuming that co‐distributed species are exposed to similar environmental conditions, ecological niche models (ENMs) of bird and plant species inhabiting tropical dry forests (TDFs) in Mexico were developed to evaluate future projections of their distribution for the years 2050 and 2070. We used ENM‐based predictions and climatic data for two Global Climate Models, considering two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5/RCP8.5). We also evaluated the effects of habitat loss and the importance of the Mexican system of protected areas (PAs) on the projected models for a more detailed prediction of TDFs and to identify hot spots that require conservation actions. We identified four major distributional areas: the main one located along the Pacific Coast (from Sonora to Chiapas, including the Cape and Bajío regions, and the Balsas river basin), and three isolated areas: the Yucatán peninsula, central Veracruz, and southern Tamaulipas. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction (~61%) of the TDFs predicted area occurred, whereas climate‐change models suggested (in comparison with the present distribution model) an increase in area of 3.0–10.0% and 3.0–9.0% for 2050 and 2070, respectively. In future scenarios, TDFs will occupy areas above its current average elevational distribution that are outside of its present geographical range. Our findings show that TDFs may persist in Mexican territory until the middle of the XXI century; however, the challenges about long‐term conservation are partially addressed (only 7% unaffected within the Mexican network of PAs) with the current Mexican PAs network. Based on our ENM approach, we suggest that a combination of models of species inhabiting present TDFs and taking into account change scenarios represent an invaluable tool to create new PAs and ecological corridors, as a response to the increasing levels of habitat destruction and the effects of climate change on this ecosystem.     

Global climate cycles and cyclones: consequences for rainfall patterns and lemur reproduction in southeastern Madagascar

Most studies that examine the influence of climatic change on flora and fauna have focused on northern latitudes; however, there is increasing recognition that tropical regions are also being affected. Despite this, regions such as Madagascar, which are rich in endemic biodiversity but may have low adaptive capacity to climatic change, are poorly represented in studies examining the effects of climate variability on biota. We investigated how El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) influence precipitation patterns in the rainforest region of southeastern Madagascar (1962–2006) and then constructed models to assess the potential contribution of climatic variables on the reproductive parameters of the Milne Edward's sifaka, a threatened lemur species (Propithecus edwardsi), over a 20‐year period. The Southern Oscillation Index of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific was associated with precipitation patterns including wetter wet seasons during warmer phases and drier dry seasons following cooler phases. The best‐supported models of lemur fecundity (female offspring per female that survive to 1 year of age per year) included cyclone presence during gestation and ENSO phase before conception and during the first 6 months of life. Models also suggested that heavy rains during gestation may limit birth rates and that prolonged drought during female lactation may limit first year offspring survival; although these variables were given little importance for predicting overall fecundity relative to ENSO phases and cyclone presence. Our results linking lemur reproduction with climatic variability suggest that climatic changes may be an additional threat to Madagascar's unique and already endangered flora and fauna. The association between precipitation in southeastern Madagascar and SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific suggests that dynamics of wildlife populations even in tropical areas such as Madagascar can be affected by global climate cycles making them potentially vulnerable to global climate change.     

昆虫对降雨和干旱的响应与适应

水分因子在昆虫的生长发育及其整个生活史中起着至关重要的作用。降雨作为改变环境水分的方式之一,其机械冲刷作用对昆虫具有直接的致死效应,并影响昆虫的生长发育、繁殖及其产卵和取食行为等;干旱作为降雨减少导致的极端环境形式,不仅对昆虫生理产生直接影响,而且还会通过影响寄主植物而间接作用于昆虫;同时,干旱还会改变同一寄主植物上昆虫之间的种间关系,导致群落多样性和稳定性的变化以及种群演替的发生。本文综述了气候变化背景下降雨和干旱对昆虫生长发育和繁殖的影响,并介绍了迁飞型昆虫、群居型昆虫、土壤害虫等对降雨和干旱的行为反应;此外,还详细介绍了昆虫对降雨和干旱的适应对策(包括对水分因子的行为适应对策、滞育和迁飞对策等),并建议利用环境水分(尤其是土壤水分)调控措施(如人工降雨和灌溉等)来防治农业害虫。     

Elucidating climatic drivers of photosynthesis by tropical forests

Tropical forests play a pivotal role in regulating the global carbon cycle. However, the response of these forests to changes in absorbed solar energy and water supply under the changing climate is highly uncertain. Three-year (2018–2021) spaceborne high-resolution measurements of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) provide a new opportunity to study the response of gross primary production (GPP) and more broadly tropical forest carbon dynamics to differences in climate. SIF has been shown to be a good proxy for GPP on monthly and regional scales. Combining tropical climate reanalysis records and other contemporary satellite products, we find that on the seasonal timescale, the dependence of GPP on climate variables is highly heterogeneous. Following the principal component analyses and correlation comparisons, two regimes are identified: water limited and energy limited. GPP variations over tropical Africa are more correlated with water-related factors such as vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and soil moisture, while in tropical Southeast Asia, GPP is more correlated with energy-related factors such as photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and surface temperature. Amazonia is itself heterogeneous: with an energy-limited regime in the north and water-limited regime in the south. The correlations of GPP with climate variables are supported by other observation-based products, such as Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO2) SIF and FluxSat GPP. In each tropical continent, the coupling between SIF and VPD increases with the mean VPD. Even on the interannual timescale, the correlation of GPP with VPD is still discernable, but the sensitivity is smaller than the intra-annual correlation. By and large, the dynamic global vegetation models in the TRENDY v8 project do not capture the high GPP seasonal sensitivity to VPD in dry tropics. The complex interactions between carbon and water cycles in the tropics illustrated in this study and the poor representation of this coupling in the current suite of vegetation models suggest that projections of future changes in carbon dynamics based on these models may not be robust.