The Changing Epidemiology of Coccidioidomycosis in Los Angeles (LA) County,California, 1973–2011

Coccidioidomycosis, also known as Valley Fever, is often thought of as an endemic disease of central California exclusive of Los Angeles County. The fungus that causes Valley Fever, Coccidioides spp., grows in previously undisturbed soil of semi-arid and arid environments of certain areas of the Americas. LA County has a few large areas with such environments, particularly the Antelope Valley which has been having substantial land development. Coccidioidomycosis that is both clinically- and laboratory-confirmed is a mandated reportable disease in LA County. Population surveillance data for 1973–2011 reveals an annual rate increase from 0.87 to 3.2 cases per 100,000 population (n = 61 to 306 annual cases). In 2004, case frequency started substantially increasing with notable epidemiologic changes such as a rising 2.1 to 5.7 male-to-female case ratio stabilizing to 1.4–2.2. Additionally, new building construction in Antelope Valley greatly rose in 2003 and displayed a strong correlation (R = 0.92, Pearson p<0.0001) with overall LA County incidence rates for 1996–2007. Of the 24 LA County health districts, 19 had a 100%-1500% increase in cases when comparing 2000–2003 to 2008–2011. Case residents of endemic areas had stronger odds of local exposures, but cases from areas not known to be endemic had greater mortality (14% versus 9%) with notably more deaths during 2008–2011. Compared to the 57 other California counties during 2001–2011, LA County had the third highest average annual number of cases and Antelope Valley had a higher incidence rate than all but six counties. With the large number of reported coccidioidomycosis cases, multi-agency and community partnering is recommended to develop effective education and prevention strategies to protect residents and travelers.     

Improving the Modeling of Disease Data from the Government Surveillance System: A Case Study on Malaria in the Brazilian Amazon

The study of the effect of large-scale drivers (e.g., climate) of human diseases typically relies on aggregate disease data collected by the government surveillance network. The usual approach to analyze these data, however, often ignores a) changes in the total number of individuals examined, b) the bias towards symptomatic individuals in routine government surveillance, and; c) the influence that observations can have on disease dynamics. Here, we highlight the consequences of ignoring the problems listed above and develop a novel modeling framework to circumvent them, which is illustrated using simulations and real malaria data. Our simulations reveal that trends in the number of disease cases do not necessarily imply similar trends in infection prevalence or incidence, due to the strong influence of concurrent changes in sampling effort. We also show that ignoring decreases in the pool of infected individuals due to the treatment of part of these individuals can hamper reliable inference on infection incidence. We propose a model that avoids these problems, being a compromise between phenomenological statistical models and mechanistic disease dynamics models; in particular, a cross-validation exercise reveals that it has better out-of-sample predictive performance than both of these alternative models. Our case study in the Brazilian Amazon reveals that infection prevalence was high in 2004–2008 (prevalence of 4% with 95% CI of 3–5%), with outbreaks (prevalence up to 18%) occurring during the dry season of the year. After this period, infection prevalence decreased substantially (0.9% with 95% CI of 0.8–1.1%), which is due to a large reduction in infection incidence (i.e., incidence in 2008–2010 was approximately one fifth of the incidence in 2004–2008).We believe that our approach to modeling government surveillance disease data will be useful to advance current understanding of large-scale drivers of several diseases.     

Age-Related Mortality Trends in Italy from 1901 to 2008

We stratified the Italian population according to age and gender in order to evaluate mortality trends over more than one century. Data covering the 1901–2008 period were used to study the yearly variations in mortality. Fluctuations in age-adjusted mortality curves were analyzed by Join Point Regression Models, identifying Join Points and Annual Percent Changes. A consistent decline in all-cause mortality occurred across the whole period, the most striking variations being observed in the 0–49 years population. In 1901, other and undefined diseases were the main causes of death, followed by infectious, digestive, and respiratory diseases in the 0–49 years population and by respiratory, cardiovascular, and cerebrovascular diseases in the ≥50 years population groups. In 2008 the main causes of death were accidents (males) and tumors (females) in the 0–49 age class, tumors in the 50–69 age class (both genders), and tumors (males) and cardiovascular diseases (females) in the elderly. The results highlight the interplay between age and gender in affecting mortality trends and reflect the dramatic progress in nutritional, lifestyle, socioeconomic, medical, and hygienic conditions.     

Mortality and major disease risk among migrants of the 1991–2001 Balkan wars to Sweden: A register-based cohort study

BackgroundIn recent decades, millions of refugees and migrants have fled wars and sought asylum in Europe. The aim of this study was to quantify the risk of mortality and major diseases among migrants during the 1991–2001 Balkan wars to Sweden in comparison to other European migrants to Sweden during the same period.Methods and findingsWe conducted a register-based cohort study of 104,770 migrants to Sweden from the former Yugoslavia during the Balkan wars and 147,430 migrants to Sweden from 24 other European countries during the same period (1991–2001). Inpatient and specialized outpatient diagnoses of cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and psychiatric disorders were obtained from the Swedish National Patient Register and the Swedish Cancer Register, and mortality data from the Swedish Cause of Death Register. Adjusting for individual-level data on sociodemographic characteristics and emigration country smoking prevalence, we used Cox regressions to contrast risks of health outcomes for migrants of the Balkan wars and other European migrants. During an average of 12.26 years of follow-up, being a migrant of the Balkan wars was associated with an elevated risk of being diagnosed with CVD (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.34–1.43, p < 0.001) and dying from CVD (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.29–1.62, p < 0.001), as well as being diagnosed with cancer (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.08–1.24, p < 0.001) and dying from cancer (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.15–1.41, p < 0.001), compared to other European migrants. Being a migrant of the Balkan wars was also associated with a greater overall risk of being diagnosed with a psychiatric disorder (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.14–1.23, p < 0.001), particularly post-traumatic stress disorder (HR 9.33, 95% CI 7.96–10.94, p < 0.001), while being associated with a reduced risk of suicide (HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.48–0.96, p = 0.030) and suicide attempt (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.51–0.65, p < 0.001). Later time period of migration and not having any first-degree relatives in Sweden at the time of immigration were associated with greater increases in risk of CVD and psychiatric disorders. Limitations of the study included lack of individual-level information on health status and behaviors of migrants at the time of immigration.ConclusionsOur findings indicate that migrants of the Balkan wars faced considerably elevated risks of major diseases and mortality in their first decade in Sweden compared to other European migrants. War migrants without family members in Sweden or with more recent immigration may be particularly vulnerable to adverse health outcomes. Results underscore that persons displaced by war are a vulnerable group in need of long-term health surveillance for psychiatric disorders and somatic disease.

Edda Bjork Thordardottir and co-workers study health outcomes among migrants from the former Yugoslavia to Sweden.     

The Genetics of Bene Israel from India Reveals Both Substantial Jewish and Indian Ancestry

The Bene Israel Jewish community from West India is a unique population whose history before the 18^th century remains largely unknown. Bene Israel members consider themselves as descendants of Jews, yet the identity of Jewish ancestors and their arrival time to India are unknown, with speculations on arrival time varying between the 8th century BCE and the 6th century CE. Here, we characterize the genetic history of Bene Israel by collecting and genotyping 18 Bene Israel individuals. Combining with 486 individuals from 41 other Jewish, Indian and Pakistani populations, and additional individuals from worldwide populations, we conducted comprehensive genome-wide analyses based on F_ST, principal component analysis, ADMIXTURE, identity-by-descent sharing, admixture linkage disequilibrium decay, haplotype sharing and allele sharing autocorrelation decay, as well as contrasted patterns between the X chromosome and the autosomes. The genetics of Bene Israel individuals resemble local Indian populations, while at the same time constituting a clearly separated and unique population in India. They are unique among Indian and Pakistani populations we analyzed in sharing considerable genetic ancestry with other Jewish populations. Putting together the results from all analyses point to Bene Israel being an admixed population with both Jewish and Indian ancestry, with the genetic contribution of each of these ancestral populations being substantial. The admixture took place in the last millennium, about 19–33 generations ago. It involved Middle-Eastern Jews and was sex-biased, with more male Jewish and local female contribution. It was followed by a population bottleneck and high endogamy, which can lead to increased prevalence of recessive diseases in this population. This study provides an example of how genetic analysis advances our knowledge of human history in cases where other disciplines lack the relevant data to do so.     

Shifting white pox aetiologies affecting Acropora palmata in the Florida Keys, 1994–2014

We propose ‘the moving target hypothesis’ to describe the aetiology of a contemporary coral disease that differs from that of its historical disease state. Hitting the target with coral disease aetiology is a complex pursuit that requires understanding of host and environment, and may lack a single pathogen solution. White pox disease (WPX) affects the Caribbean coral Acropora palmata. Acroporid serratiosis is a form of WPX for which the bacterial pathogen (Serratia marcescens) has been established. We used long-term (1994–2014) photographic monitoring to evaluate historical and contemporary epizootiology and aetiology of WPX affecting A. palmata at eight reefs in the Florida Keys. Ranges of WPX prevalence over time (0–71.4%) were comparable for the duration of the 20-year study. Whole colony mortality and disease severity were high in historical (1994–2004), and low in contemporary (2008–2014), outbreaks of WPX. Acroporid serratiosis was diagnosed for some historical (1999, 2003) and contemporary (2012, 2013) outbreaks, but this form of WPX was not confirmed for all WPX cases. Our results serve as a context for considering aetiology as a moving target for WPX and other coral diseases for which pathogens are established and/or candidate pathogens are identified. Coral aetiology investigations completed to date suggest that changes in pathogen, host and/or environment alter the disease state and complicate diagnosis.     

Co-circulation and misdiagnosis led to underestimation of the 2015–2017 Zika epidemic in the Americas

During the 2015–2017 Zika epidemic, dengue and chikungunya–two other viral diseases with the same vector as Zika–were also in circulation. Clinical presentation of these diseases can vary from person to person in terms of symptoms and severity, making it difficult to differentially diagnose them. Under these circumstances, it is possible that numerous cases of Zika could have been misdiagnosed as dengue or chikungunya, or vice versa. Given the importance of surveillance data for informing epidemiological analyses, our aim was to quantify the potential extent of misdiagnosis during this epidemic. Using basic principles of probability and empirical estimates of diagnostic sensitivity and specificity, we generated revised estimates of reported cases of Zika that accounted for the accuracy of diagnoses made on the basis of clinical presentation with or without laboratory confirmation. Applying this method to weekly reported case data from 43 countries throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, we estimated that 944,700 (95% CrI: 884,900–996,400) Zika cases occurred when assuming all confirmed cases were diagnosed using molecular methods versus 608,400 (95% CrI: 442,000–821,800) Zika cases that occurred when assuming all confirmed cases were diagnosed using serological methods. Our results imply that misdiagnosis was more common in countries with proportionally higher reported cases of dengue and chikungunya, such as Brazil. Given that Zika, dengue, and chikungunya appear likely to co-circulate in the Americas and elsewhere for years to come, our methodology has the potential to enhance the interpretation of passive surveillance data for these diseases going forward. Likewise, our methodology could also be used to help resolve transmission dynamics of other co-circulating diseases with similarities in symptomatology and potential for misdiagnosis.     

High Nationwide Incidence of Multiple Sclerosis in Sweden

Over recent years increased MS incidence, primarily in women, has been reported. We recently reported an unexpectedly high MS prevalence of 189/100,000 in Sweden. In the present study we estimated the nationwide age- and gender-specific MS incidence and the sex ratio in Sweden between 2001 and 2008. MS patients were identified by linking two nationwide health data registers, and the Swedish population register. The earliest registered date of MS diagnosis was determined. By logistic regression, the probability of the date of MS diagnosis being within the incidence period, depending on age and time was estimated for a subset of patients and applied to other patients. By Poisson regression, the hazard functions for the incidence of MS diagnosis were estimated. The expected number of MS patients was 7,361.4. The incidence in the average population of 9,054,658 was 10.2 per 100,000 person-years, and 6.2 and 14.0 per 100,000 person-years for men and women, respectively. The crude female to male ratio was 2.26. No increase of incidence or change of sex ratio was observed from 2001 to 2008. In conclusion, the average MS incidence in Sweden from 2001 to 2008 was 10.2 per 100.000, which was considerably higher than previous regional Swedish estimates of 4.3–6.4. No increase of female to male ratio of MS during the study period was observed. We provide supplementary data that can be used as tools for examining excess MS risk in different study materials.     

Exacerbation of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis in mice deficient for DCIR,an inhibitory C-type lectin receptor

Dendritic cell immunoreceptor (DCIR) is a C-type lectin receptor containing a carbohydrate recognition domain in its extracellular portion and an immunoreceptor tyrosine–based inhibitory motif, which transduces negative signals into cells, in its cytoplasmic portion. Previously, we showed that Dcir^–/– mice spontaneously develop autoimmune diseases such as enthesitis and sialadenitis due to excess expansion of dendritic cells (DCs), suggesting that DCIR is critically important for the homeostasis of the immune system. In this report, we analyzed the role of DCIR in the development of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), an autoimmune disease model for multiple sclerosis. We found that EAE was exacerbated in Dcir^–/– mice associated with severe demyelination of the spinal cords. The number of infiltrated CD11c⁺ DCs and CD4⁺ T cells into spinal cords was increased in Dcir^–/– mice. Recall proliferative response of lymph node cells was higher in Dcir^–/– mice compared with wild-type mice. These observations suggest that DCIR is an important negative regulator of the immune system, and Dcir^–/– mice should be useful for analyzing the roles of DCIR in an array of autoimmune diseases.     

Comprehensive Mapping of Common Immunodominant Epitopes in the Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus E2 Protein Recognized by Avian Antibody Responses

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) is a mosquito-borne virus that can cause both human and equine encephalitis with high case fatality rates. EEEV can also be widespread among birds, including pheasants, ostriches, emu, turkeys, whooping cranes and chickens. The E2 protein of EEEV and other Alphaviruses is an important immunogenic protein that elicits antibodies of diagnostic value. While many therapeutic and diagnostic applications of E2 protein-specific antibodies have been reported, the specific epitopes on E2 protein recognized by the antibody responses of different susceptible hosts, including avian species, remain poorly defined. In the present study, the avian E2-reactive polyclonal antibody (PAb) response was mapped to linear peptide epitopes using PAbs elicited in chickens and ducks following immunization with recombinant EEEV E2 protein and a series of 42 partially overlapping peptides covering the entire EEEV E2 protein. We identified 12 and 13 peptides recognized by the chicken and duck PAb response, respectively. Six of these linear peptides were commonly recognized by PAbs elicited in both avian species. Among them five epitopes recognized by both avian, the epitopes located at amino acids 211–226 and 331–352 were conserved among the EEEV antigenic complex, but not other associated alphaviruses, whereas the epitopes at amino acids 11–26, 30–45 and 151–166 were specific to EEEV subtype I. The five common peptide epitopes were not recognized by avian PAbs against Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) and Duck Plague Virus (DPV). The identification and characterization of EEEV E2 antibody epitopes may be aid the development of diagnostic tools and facilitate the design of epitope-based vaccines for EEEV. These results also offer information with which to study the structure of EEEV E2 protein.     

Use of NHANES Data to Link Chemical Exposures to Chronic Diseases: A Cautionary Tale

Background

The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) is one example of cross-sectional datasets that have been used to draw causal inferences regarding environmental chemical exposures and adverse health outcomes. Our objectives were to analyze four NHANES datasets using consistent a priori selected methods to address the following questions: Is there a consistent association between urinary bisphenol A (BPA) measures and diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD), and/or heart attack across surveys? Is NHANES an appropriate dataset for investigating associations between chemicals with short physiologic half-lives such as BPA and chronic diseases with multi-factorial etiologies? Data on urinary BPA and health outcomes from 2003–2004, 2005–2006, 2007–2008, and 2009–2010 were available.

Methodology and Findings

Regression models were adjusted for creatinine, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, income, smoking, heavy drinking, BMI, waist circumference, calorie intake, family history of heart attack, hypertension, sedentary time, and total cholesterol. Urinary BPA was not significantly associated with adverse health outcomes for any of the NHANES surveys, with ORs (95% CIs) ranging from 0.996 (0.951–1.04) to 1.03 (0.978–1.09) for CHD, 0.987 (0.941–1.04) to 1.04 (0.996–1.09) for heart attack, and 0.957 (0.899–1.02) to 1.01 (0.980–1.05) for diabetes.

Conclusions

Using scientifically and clinically supportable exclusion criteria and outcome definitions, we consistently found no associations between urinary BPA and heart disease or diabetes. These results do not support associations and causal inferences reported in previous studies that used different criteria and definitions. We are not drawing conclusions regarding whether BPA is a risk factor for these diseases. We are stating the opposite–that using cross-sectional datasets like NHANES to draw such conclusions about short-lived environmental chemicals and chronic complex diseases is inappropriate. We need to expend resources on appropriately designed epidemiologic studies and toxicological explorations to understand whether these types of chemicals play a causal role in chronic diseases.     

Chagas Disease Vector Control in a Hyperendemic Setting: The First 11 Years of Intervention in Cochabamba,Bolivia

Background

Chagas disease has historically been hyperendemic in the Bolivian Department of Cochabamba. In the early 2000s, an extensive vector control program was implemented; 1.34 million dwelling inspections were conducted to ascertain infestation (2000–2001/2003–2011), with blanket insecticide spraying in 2003–2005 and subsequent survey-spraying cycles targeting residual infestation foci. Here, we assess the effects of this program on dwelling infestation rates (DIRs).

Methodology/Principal Findings

Program records were used to calculate annual, municipality-level aggregate DIRs (39 municipalities); very high values in 2000–2001 (median: 0.77–0.69) dropped to ∼0.03 from 2004 on. A linear mixed model (with municipality as a random factor) suggested that infestation odds decreased, on average, by ∼28% (95% confidence interval [CI₉₅] 6–44%) with each 10-fold increase in control effort. A second, better-fitting mixed model including year as an ordinal predictor disclosed large DIR reductions in 2001–2003 (odds ratio [OR] 0.11, CI₉₅ 0.06–0.19) and 2003–2004 (OR 0.22, CI₉₅ 0.14–0.34). Except for a moderate decrease in 2005–2006, no significant changes were detected afterwards. In both models, municipality-level DIRs correlated positively with previous-year DIRs and with the extent of municipal territory originally covered by montane dry forests.

Conclusions/Significance

Insecticide-spraying campaigns had very strong, long-lasting effects on DIRs in Cochabamba. However, post-intervention surveys consistently detected infestation in ∼3% of dwellings, underscoring the need for continuous surveillance; higher DIRs were recorded in the capital city and, more generally, in municipalities dominated by montane dry forest – an eco-region where wild Triatoma infestans are widespread. Traditional strategies combining insecticide spraying and longitudinal surveillance are thus confirmed as very effective means for area-wide Chagas disease vector control; they will be particularly beneficial in highly-endemic settings, but should also be implemented or maintained in other parts of Latin America where domestic infestation by triatomines is still commonplace.     

Against All Odds: Genocidal Trauma Is Associated with Longer Life-Expectancy of the Survivors

Does surviving genocidal experiences, like the Holocaust, lead to shorter life-expectancy? Such an effect is conceivable given that most survivors not only suffered psychosocial trauma but also malnutrition, restriction in hygienic and sanitary facilities, and lack of preventive medical and health services, with potentially damaging effects for later health and life-expectancy. We explored whether genocidal survivors have a higher risk to die younger than comparisons without such background. This is the first population-based retrospective cohort study of the Holocaust, based on the entire population of immigrants from Poland to Israel (N = 55,220), 4–20 years old when the World War II started (1939), immigrating to Israel either between 1945 and 1950 (Holocaust group) or before 1939 (comparison group; not exposed to the Holocaust). Hazard of death – a long-term outcome of surviving genocidal trauma – was derived from the population-wide official data base of the National Insurance Institute of Israel. Cox regression yielded a significant hazard ratio (HR = 0.935, CI (95%) = 0.910–0.960), suggesting that the risk of death was reduced by 6.5 months for Holocaust survivors compared to non-Holocaust comparisons. The lower hazard was most substantial in males who were aged 10–15 (HR = 0.900, CI (95%) = 0.842–0.962, i.e., reduced by 10 months) or 16–20 years at the onset of the Holocaust (HR = 0.820, CI (95%) = 0.782–0.859, i.e., reduced by18 months). We found that against all odds genocidal survivors were likely to live longer. We suggest two explanations: Differential mortality during the Holocaust and “Posttraumatic Growth” associated with protective factors in Holocaust survivors or in their environment after World War II.     

I Publish in I Edit? - Do Editorial Board Members of Urologic Journals Preferentially Publish Their Own Scientific Work?

Scientists who are members of an editorial board have been accused of preferentially publishing their scientific work in the journal where they serve as editor. Reputation and academic standing do depend on an uninterrupted flow of published scientific work and the question does arise as to whether publication mainly occurs in the self-edited journal. This investigation was designed to determine whether editorial board members of five urological journals were more likely to publish their research reports in their own rather than in other journals. A retrospective analysis was conducted for all original reports published from 2001–2010 by 65 editorial board members nominated to the boards of five impact leading urologic journals in 2006. Publications before editorial board membership, 2001–2005, and publications within the period of time as an editorial board member, 2006–2010, were identified. The impact factors of the journals were also recorded over the time period 2001–2010 to see whether a change in impact factor correlated with publication locality. In the five journals as a whole, scientific work was not preferentially published in the journal in which the scientists served as editor. However, significant heterogeneity among the journals was evident. One journal showed a significant increase in the amount of published papers in the ‘own’ journal after assumption of editorship, three journals showed no change and one journal showed a highly significant decrease in publishing in the ‘own’ journal after assumption of editorship.     

Efficacy of Neonatal HBV Vaccination on Liver Cancer and Other Liver Diseases over 30-Year Follow-up of the Qidong Hepatitis B Intervention Study: A Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial

Background

Neonatal hepatitis B vaccination has been implemented worldwide to prevent hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections. Its long-term protective efficacy on primary liver cancer (PLC) and other liver diseases has not been fully examined.

Methods and Findings

The Qidong Hepatitis B Intervention Study, a population-based, cluster randomized, controlled trial between 1985 and 1990 in Qidong, China, included 39,292 newborns who were randomly assigned to the vaccination group in which 38,366 participants completed the HBV vaccination series and 34,441 newborns who were randomly assigned to the control group in which the participants received neither a vaccine nor a placebo. However, 23,368 (67.8%) participants in the control group received catch-up vaccination at age 10–14 years. By December 2013, a total of 3,895 (10.2%) in the vaccination group and 3,898 (11.3%) in the control group were lost to follow-up. Information on PLC incidence and liver disease mortality were collected through linkage of all remaining cohort members to a well-established population-based tumor registry until December 31, 2013. Two cross-sectional surveys on HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) seroprevalence were conducted in 1996–2000 and 2008–2012. The participation rates of the two surveys were 57.5% (21,770) and 50.7% (17,204) in the vaccination group and 36.3% (12,184) and 58.6% (17,395) in the control group, respectively. Using intention-to-treat analysis, we found that the incidence rate of PLC and the mortality rates of severe end-stage liver diseases and infant fulminant hepatitis were significantly lower in the vaccination group than the control group with efficacies of 84% (95% CI 23%–97%), 70% (95% CI 15%–89%), and 69% (95% CI 34%–85%), respectively. The estimated efficacy of catch-up vaccination on HBsAg seroprevalence in early adulthood was 21% (95% CI 10%–30%), substantially weaker than that of the neonatal vaccination (72%, 95% CI 68%–75%). Receiving a booster at age 10–14 years decreased HBsAg seroprevalence if participants were born to HBsAg-positive mothers (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.68, 95% CI 0.47–0.97). Limitations to consider in interpreting the study results include the small number of individuals with PLC, participants lost to follow-up, and the large proportion of participants who did not provide serum samples at follow-up.

Conclusions

Neonatal HBV vaccination was found to significantly decrease HBsAg seroprevalence in childhood through young adulthood and subsequently reduce the risk of PLC and other liver diseases in young adults in rural China. The findings underscore the importance of neonatal HBV vaccination. Our results also suggest that an adolescence booster should be considered in individuals born to HBsAg-positive mothers and who have completed the HBV neonatal vaccination series. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Body Mass Index and Mortality among Korean Elderly in Rural Communities: Kangwha Cohort Study

BackgroundThe relationship between body mass index (BMI) and mortality may differ by ethnicity, but its exact nature remains unclear among Koreans. The study aim was to prospectively examine the association between BMI and mortality in Korean.Methods6166 residents (2636 men; 3530 women) of rural communities (Kangwha County, Republic of Korea) aged 55 and above were followed up for deaths from 1985–2008. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards model.ResultsDuring the 23.8 years of follow-up (an average of 12.5 years in men and 15.7 years in women), 2174 men and 2372 women died. Men with BMI of 21.0–27.4 and women with BMI of 20.0–27.4 had a minimal risk for all-cause mortality. A lower BMI as well as a higher BMI increased the hazard ratio of death. For example, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios associated with BMI below 16, and with BMI of 27.5 and above, were 2.4 (95% CI = 1.6–3.5) and 1.5 (95% CI = 1.1–1.9) respectively, in men, compared to those with BMI of 23.0–24.9. This reverse J-curve association was maintained among never smokers, and among people with no known chronic diseases. Higher BMI increased vascular mortality, while lower BMI increased deaths from vascular diseases, cancers, and, especially, respiratory diseases. Except for cancers, these associations were generally weaker in women than in men.ConclusionsA reverse J-curve association between BMI and all-cause mortality may exist. BMI of 21–27.4 (rather than the range suggested by WHO of 18.5–23 for Asians) may be considered a normal range with acceptable risk in Koreans aged 55 and above, and may be used as cut points for interventions. More concern should be given to people with BMI above and below a BMI range with acceptable risk. Further studies are needed to determine ethnicity-specific associations.     

Barcoding heat shock proteins to human diseases: looking beyond the heat shock response

There are numerous human diseases that are associated with protein misfolding and the formation of toxic protein aggregates. Activating the heat shock response (HSR) – and thus generally restoring the disturbed protein homeostasis associated with such diseases – has often been suggested as a therapeutic strategy. However, most data on activating the HSR or its downstream targets in mouse models of diseases associated with aggregate formation have been rather disappointing. The human chaperonome consists of many more heat shock proteins (HSPs) that are not regulated by the HSR, however, and researchers are now focusing on these as potential therapeutic targets. In this Review, we summarize the existing literature on a set of aggregation diseases and propose that each of them can be characterized or ‘barcoded’ by a different set of HSPs that can rescue specific types of aggregation. Some of these ‘non-canonical’ HSPs have demonstrated effectiveness in vivo, in mouse models of protein-aggregation disease. Interestingly, several of these HSPs also cause diseases when mutated – so-called chaperonopathies – which are also discussed in this Review.KEY WORDS: Chaperonopathies, Heat shock protein, Protein-aggregation diseases     

Estimation of Agricultural Water Consumption from Meteorological and Yield Data: A Case Study of Hebei,North China

Over-exploitation of groundwater resources for irrigated grain production in Hebei province threatens national grain food security. The objective of this study was to quantify agricultural water consumption (AWC) and irrigation water consumption in this region. A methodology to estimate AWC was developed based on Penman-Monteith method using meteorological station data (1984–2008) and existing actual ET (2002–2008) data which estimated from MODIS satellite data through a remote sensing ET model. The validation of the model using the experimental plots (50 m²) data observed from the Luancheng Agro-ecosystem Experimental Station, Chinese Academy of Sciences, showed the average deviation of the model was −3.7% for non-rainfed plots. The total AWC and irrigation water (mainly groundwater) consumption for Hebei province from 1984–2008 were then estimated as 864 km³ and 139 km³, respectively. In addition, we found the AWC has significantly increased during the past 25 years except for a few counties located in mountainous regions. Estimations of net groundwater consumption for grain food production within the plain area of Hebei province in the past 25 years accounted for 113 km³ which could cause average groundwater decrease of 7.4 m over the plain. The integration of meteorological and satellite data allows us to extend estimation of actual ET beyond the record available from satellite data, and the approach could be applicable in other regions globally where similar data are available.