Unraveling Seasonality in Population Averages: An Examination of Seasonal Variation in Glucose Levels in Diabetes Patients Using a Large Population-based Data Set

It has been shown that the population average blood glucose level of diabetes patients shows seasonal variation, with higher levels in the winter than summer. However, seasonality in the population averages could be due to a tendency in the individual to seasonal variation, or alternatively due to occasional high winter readings (spiking), with different individuals showing this increase in different winters. A method was developed to rule out spiking as the dominant pattern underlying the seasonal variation in the population averages. Three years of data from three community-serving laboratories in Israel were retrieved. Diabetes patients (N?=?3243) with a blood glucose result every winter and summer over the study period were selected. For each individual, the following were calculated: seasonal average glucose for all winters and summers over the period of study (2006–2009), winter-summer difference for each adjacent winter-summer pair, and average of these five differences, an index of the degree of spikiness in the pattern of the six seasonal levels, and number of times out of five that each winter-summer difference was positive. Seasonal population averages were examined. The distribution of the individual's differences between adjacent seasons (winter minus summer) was examined and compared between subgroups. Seasonal population averages were reexamined in groups divided according to the index of the degree of spikiness in the individual's glucose pattern over the series of seasons. Seasonal population averages showed higher winter than summer levels. The overall median winter-summer difference on the individual level was 8?mg/dL (0.4?mmol/L). In 16.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 15.6–18.2%) of the population, all five winter-summer differences were positive versus 3.6% (95% CI: 3.0–4.2%) where all five winter-summer differences were negative. Seasonal variation in the population averages was not attenuated in the group having the lowest spikiness index; comparison of the distributions of the winter-summer differences in the high-, medium-, and low-spikiness groups showed no significant difference (p?=?.213). Therefore, seasonality in the population average blood glucose in diabetes patients is not just the result of occasional high measurements in different individuals in different winters, but presumably reflects a general periodic tendency in individuals for winter glucose levels to be higher than summer levels. (Author correspondence: anneke@clalit.org.il)     

Seasonal variation in the metabolism-temperature relation of House Sparrows (Passer domesticus) in KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa

Many birds exhibit considerable phenotypic flexibility in metabolism to maintain thermoregulation or to conserve energy. This flexibility usually includes seasonal variation in metabolic rate. Seasonal changes in physiology and behavior of birds are considered to be a part of their adaptive strategy for survival and reproductive success. House Sparrows (Passer domesticus) are small passerines from Europe that have been successfully introduced to many parts of the world, and thus may be expected to exhibit high phenotypic flexibility in metabolic rate. Mass specific Resting Metabolic Rate (RMR) and Basal Metabolic Rate (BMR) were significantly higher in winter compared with summer, although there was no significant difference between body mass in summer and winter. A similar, narrow thermal neutral zone (25–28 °C) was observed in both seasons. Winter elevation of metabolic rate in House Sparrows was presumably related to metabolic or morphological adjustments to meet the extra energy demands of cold winters. Overall, House Sparrows showed seasonal metabolic acclimatization similar to other temperate wintering passerines. The improved cold tolerance was associated with a significant increase in VO₂ in winter relative to summer. In addition, some summer birds died at 5 °C, whereas winter birds did not, further showing seasonal variation in cold tolerance. The increase in BMR of 120% in winter, compared to summer, is by far the highest recorded seasonal change so far in birds.     

Population biology of Proteocephalus macrocephalus (Creplin) in the European eel, Anguilla anguilla (Linnaeus), in two small rivers

Seasonal changes in populations of Proteocephalus macrocephalus (Creplin) were investigated for 17 months in the European eel, Anguilla anguilla (Linnaeus), in two rivers in Devon, SW England, but no clear seasonal patterns in prevalence and abundance were apparent. Population levels of the cestode are low in both localities, and it is suggested that natural population levels of P. macrocephalus may generally be low. However, growth and maturation of the cestode show marked seasonality with both occurring mainly in early summer.     

Seasonal Variation of Newly Notified Pulmonary Tuberculosis Cases from 2004 to 2013 in Wuhan,China

Background

Although there was a report about the seasonal variation in Wuhan city, it only analyzed the prevalence data of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) cases, and just studied the seasonality by subgroup of smear positive and negative from 2006 to 2010 by spectral analysis. In this study, we investigated the seasonality of the total newly notified pulmonary TB cases by subgroups such as time period, sex, age, occupation, district, and sputum smear result from 2004 to 2013 in Wuhan by a popular seasonal adjustment model (TRAMO-SEATS).

Methods

Monthly pulmonary TB cases from 2004 to 2013 in Wuhan were analyzed by the TRAMO-SEATS seasonal adjustment program. Seasonal amplitude was calculated and compared within the subgroups.

Results

From 2004 to 2013, there were 77.76 thousand newly notified pulmonary TB cases in Wuhan, China. There was a dominant peak spring peak (March) with seasonal amplitude of 56.81% and a second summer peak (September) of 43.40%, compared with the trough month (December). The spring seasonal amplitude in 2004–2008 was higher than that of 2009–2013(P<0.05). There were no statistical differences for spring seasonal amplitude within subgroups of gender, age, district, and sputum smear result (P>0.05). However, there were significant differences in spring seasonal amplitude by occupation, with amplitude ranging from 59.37% to 113.22% (P<0.05). The summer seasonal amplitude in 2004–2008 was higher than that of 2009–2013(P<0.05). There were no statistical differences in summer seasonal amplitude within subgroups of gender, district, sputum smear result(P>0.05). There were significant differences in summer seasonal amplitude by age, with amplitude ranging from 36.05% to 100.09% (P<0.05). Also, there were significant differences in summer seasonal amplitude by occupation, with amplitude ranging from 43.40% to 109.88% (P<0.05).

Conclusions

There was an apparent seasonal variation in pulmonary TB cases in Wuhan. We speculated that spring peak in our study was most likely caused by the increased reactivation of the latent TB due to vitamin D deficiency and high PM2.5 concentration, while the summer peak was mainly resulted from the enhanced winter transmission due to indoor crowding in winter, overcrowding of public transportation over the period of the Spring Festival and health care seeking delay in winter.     

Seasonality affects post-thaw plasma membrane intactness and sperm velocities in spermatozoa from Thai AI swamp buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis)

Altogether 218 frozen semen AI doses, prepared between 1980 and 1989 and also between 2003 and 2005 from 18 AI Thai swamp buffalo sires, were examined to determine whether seasonality affects post-thaw viability, as plasma membrane integrity (PMI, using SYBR-14/PI), plasma membrane stability (PMS, using Annexin-V/PI), or motility (Mot, using CASA). A thermoresistance test (38 degrees C for 60 min) was used to further analyze sperm survivability in vitro. All variables were compared over 3 seasons of the year (rainy: July-October; winter: November-February; and summer: March-June), with distinct ambient temperature and humidity. PMI (% of alive spermatozoa) was higher in winter (54.6%, P<0.001) than in the rainy (43.5%) or summer (46.7%) seasons. Outcomes of PMS (Annexin-V/PI assay) confirmed those of PMI, the highest PMS in spermatozoa processed in winter (55.7%, P<0.001). Spermatozoa depicting linear Mot post-thaw ranged from 48.2% to 48.8% across seasons (ns), proportions that decreased during incubation (33.5-37.9%), albeit without seasonal differences. The mean percentages of straight linear velocity (VSL), average path velocity (VAP), or curvilinear velocity (VCL) were higher (P<0.05-0.001) in the rainy season than in winter or summer, while average lateral head displacement (ALH) was higher (P<0.05) in summer, differences maintained after incubation. In conclusion, post-thaw PMS and PMI, assessed by flow cytometry, were significantly better in sperm samples processed during winter than in samples processed during the other seasons of the year, a seasonal difference not picked up by CASA, probably due to the larger number of spermatozoa assessed.     

Morningness-eveningness and seasonality

The study aimed to elucidate previously observed associations between morningness–eveningness and seasonality by analysing their distinct aspects separately: morning affect (MA) and time-of-day preference, different seasonal types and patterns (winter, summer, etc.), the degree of seasonality and perceived negative impact of seasonality. Students from Warsaw (N = 522) completed the Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire and the Composite Scale of Morningness. Winter seasonality was related to lower MA, but unrelated to time-of-day preference. Global seasonality score was negatively associated with MA in winter seasonality, but not in other seasonality patterns, and unrelated to time-of-day preference. These associations remained significant after controlling for sex, age and season of assessment. It is concluded that winter seasonality is related to low MA, but not to time-of-day preference. The above results indicate that MA can be considered as an all year round indicator of proneness to winter seasonality and eventually to seasonal affective disorder. The results also suggest that MA and time-of-day preference should be analysed separately in future research on morningness–eveningness.     

WEIGHT AND CULMEN CHANGES IN

Summers, R.W. &; Kaletja-Summers, B. 1996. Seasonal use of sandflats and saltmarshes by waders at low and high tide at Langebaan Lagoon, South Africa. Ostrich 67:72-79.

Migrant and resident waders were counted on sandflats and saltmarshes at low and high tide during two summers (197576 and 1976–77) and two winters (1975 and 1976) at Langebaan Lagoon. Intertidal sandflats supported higher densities of waders than saltmarshes at low tide in summer (18.7 and 17.2 waders ha' on sandflats compared with 0.4 and 2.9 waders ha' on saltmarshes) and winter (0.9 and 3.1 compared with 0.6 and 1.9 waders ha I for the two years). At high tide, most waders moved onto saltmarshes, attaining densities of 70.4 and 53.6 waders ha' in the two summers, and 5.7 and 15.6 birds ha' in the two winters. Resident waders comprised 0.3 and 0.8% of the wader community in the two summers and 41 and 5% in the two winters. They were also at higher densities in winter than in summer. The composition of wader communities on the different sandflats varied little in summer and Curlew Sandpipers were the most abundant species on all sandflats. Minor variations in species composition included proportionately more Turnstones at the mouth of the lagoon, more Sanderlings and Whimbrels in the mid sections and more Terek Sandpipers, Greenshanks and Curlews in the upper part. Larger percentages of waders were foraging on the sandflats at low tide in both summer (96 and 92% for the two summers) and winter (85 and 94% for the two winters) compared with the saltmarshes (73 and 79% in the two summers and 60 and 81% in the two winters). A larger proportion of small waders were foraging on sandflats at low tide compared with large waders. At high tide on the saltmarshes, the percent of foraging birds was lower in summer (29% for both summers) than in winter (36 and 78% for the two winters), perhaps reflecting seasonal changes in energy requirements.     

Spatial organisation and dynamics of the pine marten Martes martes population in Białowieza Forest (E Poland) compared with other European woodlands

We studied factors affecting density and spacing patterns in the pine marten Martes martes population inhabiting temperate forests of Bia?owieza National Park, eastern Poland. From 1985/1986 to 1995/1996 marten densities ranged from 3.63 to 7.57 individuals 10 km^?2 (mean 5.4) and were positively correlated with abundance of forest rodents in the previous year. The rate of marten population growth was inversely density‐dependent and positively related to rodent density. Annual mortality rate averaged 0.384 and tended to be negatively related to marten densities. Mean annual home range of males (2.58 km², SE=0.24) was larger than that of females (1.41 km², SE=0.20). Seasonal home ranges also differed significantly between males and females. Both sexes held the smallest ranges in December–January. Female ranges increased in April–May, whereas those of males increased in June–September when they were mating. Fidelity of pine martens to their home ranges was very high. The mean shift between arithmetic centres of seasonal ranges was 0.25 km, and the ranges recorded in two consecutive seasons overlapped, on average, by 87–90%. We observed very little home range overlap between neighbouring male (mean 4–6%) or female (mean 6%) marten. Year round the neighbouring individuals of the same sex neither avoided nor attracted each other. Females attracted males only during the spring‐summer mating season. A review of other studies has documented that winter severity and seasonal variation in ecosystem productivity were essential factors shaping the biogeographic variation in pine marten densities between 41^o and 68^oN. The density of marten populations increased in areas with mild winters and lower seasonality. Maximum population densities (indicative of habitat carrying capacity) were correlated with mean winter temperature. In Europe, male home ranges increased with decreasing forest cover in a study area, whereas female ranges varied positively with rodent abundance.     

Seasonal acclimatization to extreme climatic conditions by black-capped chickadees (Poecile atricapilla) in interior Alaska (64 degrees N).

Winters in interior Alaska (64 degrees N) are characterized by short photoperiod (5L : 19D) and chronic subfreezing temperatures. To determine if seasonal acclimatization of black-capped chickadees (Poecile atricapilla) at high latitude differs from that of conspecifics at lower latitudes, standard metabolic rates (SMR), metabolic response to low temperature (-30 degrees C), nocturnal hypothermia, body mass, fat reserves, and conductance were measured over two winters and one summer in three groups of seasonally acclimatized birds. Body mass and conductance did not vary with season, although furcular fat levels were higher in winter. Birds used nocturnal hypothermia when exposed to -30 degrees C in summer or winter. Although SMR did not vary seasonally, winter SMRs differed between the two winters of the study. Nocturnal hypothermia in summer and decreased SMR in response to extreme conditions may either reflect plasticity inherent to all populations of black-capped chickadees or may result from individual variation within this northern population.     

Seasonal variations of physiological characteristics and thermal sensation under identical thermal conditions

Seasonal variations of human thermal characteristics were inspected in thermal comfort and when constantly indoors. Metabolic rate, tympanic temperature, skin temperature, body fat, body weight and thermal sensation were measured under identical thermal conditions in a chamber over the course of one year. Experiments were carried out for each subject in both summer and winter. Six subjects were measured 35 times in summer and 45 times in winter. one subject was measured weekly for 14 months. Measurements for analyses were taken 40-60 min after entrance into the chamber. Results revealed the following. 1) For all subjects, the metabolic rate, tympanic temperature and body fat were lower in summer than in winter; thigh skin temperatures were higher in summer than in winter. The averaged individual ratio of seasonal difference was 11.9% for metabolic rate, 14.9% for body fat, 1.8% for thigh temperature and 0.53% for tympanic temperature. Seasonal differences of about 10% in metabolic rate were maintained in this study. 2) Seasonal variations of the variables were examined for phase relationships against the outdoor temperature. 2-1) Metabolic rate, thermal sensation, body weight and body fat changed in reverse phase, whereas skin temperature was in-phase. 2-2) Skin temperature lagged by about one month in both summer and winter. Body fat also lagged by about one month in summer, but corresponded to the phase in winter. Metabolic rates were also in-phase in winter but led about three months in summer. Thermal sensations lagged by about three months in winter but were in-phase in summer. Body weight was in-phase in summer and winter. 2-3) Summer disorders were observed particularly in seasonal variations of metabolic rates, tympanic temperature, skin temperatures, and thermal sensation, thereby suggesting that the effect of temperature exposure was altered by air-conditioner use.     

A temperature-dependent growth model for the three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus

Specific growth rates of individually reared juvenile three-spined sticklebacks Gasterosteus aculeatus were investigated under laboratory conditions to parameterize a complete temperature-dependent growth model for this species. To test the applicability of experimentally derived optima in growth response rates to natural conditions, the effects of commercial pellets and natural prey on growth rates were investigated. In addition, to test for seasonal effects on growth, laboratory trials were performed in both spring and winter. Growth took place from 5 to 29° C with a temperature for optimum growth reaching a sharp peak at 21° C. Modelled optimal temperature for maximum growth was estimated to be 21.7° C and lower and upper temperatures for growth were estimated to be 3.6 and 30.7° C, respectively. There were no significant differences in growth rates between fish reared on invertebrates or commercial pellets. Seasonal effects on growth were pronounced, with reduced growth rates in the winter despite similar laboratory conditions. On average, 60% higher growth rates were achieved at the optimum temperature in summer compared to the winter. The strong seasonality in the growth patterns of G. aculeatus indicated here reduces the applicability of the model derived in this study to spring and summer conditions.     

An indicator highlights seasonal variation in the response of Lepidoptera communities to warming

The impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems are increasingly evident. While these tend to be clearest with respect to changes in phenology and distribution ranges, there are also important consequences for population sizes and community structure. There is an urgent need to develop ecological indicators that can be used to detect climate-driven changes in ecological communities, and identify how those impacts may vary spatially. Here we describe the development of a new community-based seasonal climate change indicator that uses national population and weather indices. We test this indicator using Lepidopteran and co-located weather data collected across a range of UK Environmental Change Network (ECN) sites. We compare our butterfly indicator with estimates derived from an alternative, previously published metric, the Community Temperature Index (CTI).First, we quantified the effect of temperature on population growth rates of moths and butterflies (Species Temperature Response, STR) by modelling annual variation in national population indices as a function of nationally averaged seasonal variation in temperature, using species and weather data independent of the ECN data. Then, we calculated average STRs for annually summarised species data from each ECN site, weighted by species’ abundance, to produce the Community Temperature Response (CTR). Finally, we tested the extent to which CTR correlated with spatial variation in temperature between sites and the extent to which temporal variation in CTR tracked both annual and seasonal warming trends.Mean site CTR was positively correlated with mean site temperature for moths but not butterflies. However, spatial variation in moth communities was well explained by mean site summer temperature and butterfly communities by winter temperature, respectively accounting for 74% and 63% of variation. Temporal variation in moth and butterfly CTR within sites did not vary with the mean annual temperature but responded to variation in the mean temperature of specific seasons. There were positive correlations between moth seasonal CTRs and seasonal temperatures in winter, spring and summer; and butterfly seasonal CTRs and seasonal temperatures in winter and summer. Butterfly CTR and CTI both correlated spatially and temporally with winter temperature.Our results highlight the need for seasonality to be considered when examining the impact of climate change on communities. Seasonal CTRs may be used to track the impact of changing temperatures on biodiversity and help identify potential mechanisms by which climate change is affecting communities. In the case of Lepidoptera, our results suggest that future warming may reassemble Lepidoptera communities.     

Seasonal changes in density and tissue distribution of Onchocerca cervicalis microfilariae in ponies and related changes in Culicoides variipennis populations in Louisiana

Seasonal changes in density and spatial distribution of Onchocerca cervicalis microfilariae were studied in ventral-midline skin of 15 infected pony mares in southern Louisiana. Triple running mean analysis of data over a 13-mo period indicated that a distinct pattern exists in total microfilariae population density and in microfilariae occurrence in different levels of the dermis. Microfilariae density reaches peak levels in the spring followed by a 58% decrease in the summer, a 19% increase in the fall, and a decrease to the lowest numbers in the winter. Microfilariae were found in all levels of the skin during the spring, summer, and fall but were not found in the superficial layers of the dermis during the winter months. The population density of Culicoides variipennis, a demonstrated vector of O. cervicalis, appeared to have seasonal fluctuations similar to the changes in microfilarial density. Harmonic wave analysis of microfilariae density data in individual ponies showed that all individuals did not follow the population trend.     

Seasonal patterns of predation for gray wolves in the multi-prey system of Yellowstone National Park

1.?For large predators living in seasonal environments, patterns of predation are likely to vary among seasons because of related changes in prey vulnerability. Variation in prey vulnerability underlies the influence of predators on prey populations and the response of predators to seasonal variation in rates of biomass acquisition. Despite its importance, seasonal variation in predation is poorly understood. 2.?We assessed seasonal variation in prey composition and kill rate for wolves Canis lupus living on the Northern Range (NR) of Yellowstone National Park. Our assessment was based on data collected over 14 winters (1995-2009) and five spring-summers between 2004 and 2009. 3.?The species composition of wolf-killed prey and the age and sex composition of wolf-killed elk Cervus elaphus (the primary prey for NR wolves) varied among seasons. 4.?One's understanding of predation depends critically on the metric used to quantify kill rate. For example, kill rate was greatest in summer when quantified as the number of ungulates acquired per wolf per day, and least during summer when kill rate was quantified as the biomass acquired per wolf per day. This finding contradicts previous research that suggests that rates of biomass acquisition for large terrestrial carnivores tend not to vary among seasons. 5.?Kill rates were not well correlated among seasons. For example, knowing that early-winter kill rate is higher than average (compared with other early winters) provides little basis for anticipating whether kill rates a few months later during late winter will be higher or lower than average (compared with other late winters). This observation indicates how observing, for example, higher-than-average kill rates throughout any particular season is an unreliable basis for inferring that the year-round average kill rate would be higher than average. 6.?Our work shows how a large carnivore living in a seasonal environment displays marked seasonal variation in predation because of changes in prey vulnerability. Patterns of wolf predation were influenced by the nutritional condition of adult elk and the availability of smaller prey (i.e. elk calves, deer). We discuss how these patterns affect our overall understanding of predator and prey population dynamics.     

Seasonal variation in metabolic rate of a medium-sized frugivore, the Knysna Turaco (Tauraco corythaix)

Many seasonal thermoregulation studies have been conducted on Holarctic birds that live in predictable, highly seasonal climates with severe winters. However, relatively few studies have been conducted on their southern hemisphere Afrotropical counterparts that encounter less predictable climates with milder winters. These latter birds are expected to conserve energy in winter by downregulating their metabolic rates. Therefore in this study, metabolic rate was measured during summer and winter in Knysna Turaco, Tauraco corythaix (Musophagiformes, Musophagidae) (c. 310 g), a non-passerine, in order to test whether there is energy conservation in winter. No overall significant differences in resting metabolic rates over a range of ambient temperatures were observed between winter and summer. However, whole-organism basal metabolic rates were 18.5% higher (p=0.005) in winter than in summer (210.83±15.97 vs. 186.70±10.52 O₂ h⁻¹). Knysna Turacos had broad thermoneutral zones ranging from 20 to 28 °C in winter and 10 to 30 °C in summer. These results suggest that Knysna Turacos show seasonal thermoregulatory responses that represent cold defense rather than energy conservation, which is contrary to what was expected.     

Seasonal Variation of Overall and Cardiovascular Mortality: A Study in 19 Countries from Different Geographic Locations

Background

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) mortality has been shown to follow a seasonal pattern. Several studies suggested several possible determinants of this pattern, including misclassification of causes of deaths. We aimed at assessing seasonality in overall, CVD, cancer and non-CVD/non-cancer mortality using data from 19 countries from different latitudes.

Methods and Findings

Monthly mortality data were compiled from 19 countries, amounting to over 54 million deaths. We calculated ratios of the observed to the expected numbers of deaths in the absence of a seasonal pattern. Seasonal variation (peak to nadir difference) for overall and cause-specific (CVD, cancer or non-CVD/non-cancer) mortality was analyzed using the cosinor function model. Mortality from overall, CVD and non-CVD/non-cancer showed a consistent seasonal pattern. In both hemispheres, the number of deaths was higher than expected in winter. In countries close to the Equator the seasonal pattern was considerably lower for mortality from any cause. For CVD mortality, the peak to nadir differences ranged from 0.185 to 0.466 in the Northern Hemisphere, from 0.087 to 0.108 near the Equator, and from 0.219 to 0.409 in the Southern Hemisphere. For cancer mortality, the seasonal variation was nonexistent in most countries.

Conclusions

In countries with seasonal variation, mortality from overall, CVD and non-CVD/non-cancer show a seasonal pattern with mortality being higher in winter than in summer. Conversely, cancer mortality shows no substantial seasonality.     

Seasonal environments, episodic density compensation and dynamics of structure of chiropteran frugivore guilds in Paraguayan Atlantic forest

Seasonal environmental variation experienced in the subtropics may contribute substantially to dynamics of community structure. This is particularly true for Neotropical bats because the geographic terminus of most families occurs there. Paraguayan Atlantic forest provides an ideal opportunity to evaluate effects of seasonality on structure of communities; it exhibits notable spatial and seasonal environmental variation and lies near the edge of the geographic distribution of most tropical bat species occurring there. We examined seasonality of bat populations and communities as well as correspondence to seasonal environmental conditions in eastern Paraguay. Most species exhibited lower abundances in the cool than in the warm season. Nonetheless, magnitude of differences was species-specific. Accordingly, highly significant differences between warm and cool seasons existed regarding species composition, evenness and diversity. Moreover, consistent with competition theory, magnitude of positive correlation between morphological distance and abundance and hence degree of structure was greater in the cool than warm season. Across the New World, seasonality assumes various forms (i.e. cold winters, dry and wet seasons) suggesting that better understanding of mechanistic bases of bat community structure in general may come from seasonal perspectives.     

Seasonality in human zoonotic enteric diseases: a systematic review

Background

Although seasonality is a defining characteristic of many infectious diseases, few studies have described and compared seasonal patterns across diseases globally, impeding our understanding of putative mechanisms. Here, we review seasonal patterns across five enteric zoonotic diseases: campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, vero-cytotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC), cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in the context of two primary drivers of seasonality: (i) environmental effects on pathogen occurrence and pathogen-host associations and (ii) population characteristics/behaviour.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We systematically reviewed published literature from 1960–2010, resulting in the review of 86 studies across the five diseases. The Gini coefficient compared temporal variations in incidence across diseases and the monthly seasonality index characterised timing of seasonal peaks. Consistent seasonal patterns across transnational boundaries, albeit with regional variations was observed. The bacterial diseases all had a distinct summer peak, with identical Gini values for campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis (0.22) and a higher index for VTEC (Gini = 0.36). Cryptosporidiosis displayed a bi-modal peak with spring and summer highs and the most marked temporal variation (Gini = 0.39). Giardiasis showed a relatively small summer increase and was the least variable (Gini = 0.18).

Conclusions/Significance

Seasonal variation in enteric zoonotic diseases is ubiquitous, with regional variations highlighting complex environment-pathogen-host interactions. Results suggest that proximal environmental influences and host population dynamics, together with distal, longer-term climatic variability could have important direct and indirect consequences for future enteric disease risk. Additional understanding of the concerted influence of these factors on disease patterns may improve assessment and prediction of enteric disease burden in temperate, developed countries.     

The effects of seasonality on discrete models of population growth

The effects of seasonality on the dynamics of a bivoltine population with discrete, nonoverlapping generations are examined. It is found that large seasonality is inevitably destabilizing but that mild seasonality may have a pronounced stabilizing effect. Seasonality also allows for the coexistence of alternative stable states (equilibria, cycles, chaos). These solutions may be seasonally in-phase, out-of-phase, or asynchronous. In-phase solutions correspond to winter regulation of population density, whereas out-of-phase solutions correspond to summer regulation. Analysis suggests that summer regulation is possible only in mildly seasonal habitats.