Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Events on the Distribution of Wintering Raptors

Abstract We report the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the distribution and abundance of 3 raptor species at continental, regional, and landscape scales. We correlated values from the southern oscillation index (SOI), an index of ENSO phase and strength, with Christmas Bird Count data over a 30-year period. We investigated the relationship between the SOI and winter raptor distributions at 3 spatial scales: continental (central United States), regional (TX, USA), and landscape (3 roadside transects within TX). At the continental scale, ENSO events resulted in regional shifts for American kestrel (Falco sparverius), northern harrier (Circus cyaneus), and red-tailed hawk (Buteo jamaicensis) winter abundances. As expected, these shifts were northward during El Niño (warm) winters, and southward for red-tailed hawks and northern harriers during La Niña (cold) winters. Within Texas, northern harrier distributions shifted towards arid west Texas during wet El Niño winters but were restricted to mesic coastal Texas during dry La Niña winters. Red-tailed hawk abundance increased in eastern Texas during La Niña winters responding to cooler than normal temperatures throughout the northern Midwest. Data from local roadside transects over a 3-year period encompassing 2 El Niño winters and one La Niña winter supported the abundance patterns revealed by continental and regional data, and added evidence that fluctuations in winter abundances result from demographic pulses as well as spatial shifts for wintering populations. This study underscores the need for long-term monitoring at both local and regional spatial scales in order to detect changes in continental populations. Short-term or local studies would have erroneously assumed local population declines or increases associated with ENSO events, rather than facultative movements or demographic pulses supported by this study.     

A SUMMARY OF THE BIRDS OF WESTMINSTER O.F.S. AND SURROUNDINGS (1953-1955)

Results are presented from point-counts at six sites in the Kalahari in Botswana. Counts were repeated three times: during a dry season following good rains (1991), during the next wet season when rains were far below average, and the following dry season (1992) when the area became drought-stricken. Compared to the wet season, bird numbers decreased during the drought by 37–81% and species by 8–52%; compared to the previous dry season, birds decreased by 5–71% and species by 2–47%. Bird diversity (relative to numbers) tended to increase during the wet season but was little affected by drought, except in the northern Kalahari, where a greater proportion of birds moved out in response to drought. This gave the northern Kalahari the most distinct bird community during a wet cycle, but it became again typically Kalahari during the drought. Thus, the typical Kalahari bird communities expanded their range during drought into the moister periphery. Changes in numbers, most probably resulting from (local) movements were found in many species. Most confirmed earlier reports on their nomadic nature but some, like Red-crested Lophotis ruficrista and Northern Black Afrotis afraoides Korhaan, Chestnut-vented Tit-Babbler Parisoma subcaeruleum, Ant-eating Chat Myrmecocichla formicivora, Tinkling Cisticola Cisticola rufilatus, Black-chested Prinia Prinia flavicans, Marico Flycatcher Bradornis mariquensis and Brown-crowned Tchagra Tchagra australis have not been or are not widely recognised as mobile species.     

Witnessing extinction: Population genetics of the last European Rollers (Coracias garrulus) in Austria and a first phylogeographic analysis of the species across its distribution range

Due to broad‐scale habitat loss, European Rollers (Coracias garrulus) have been decreasing in numbers rapidly during the 20th century in parts of their European distribution range. In Austria, as of 2017, only a completely isolated relict population of two breeding pairs and a few non‐breeders remained in Styria compared to about 270 pairs in the 1950s. In 2018, no breeders have been recorded. Since 2002, all nestlings and adult birds in Austria have been ringed. Given the small census size, combined with lack of immigration from other populations, genetic depletion seems likely. In the present study, mitochondrial control region sequence and microsatellite data based on blood samples of nestlings from recent years were collected and compared with museum samples from historical times (when Rollers were more common and widespread in Austria) and with birds across the distribution range to arrive at a first preliminary phylogeographic dataset for the species. The mitochondrial DNA showed a decrease in variation over time in Austria, eventually reaching monomorphism, while genetic diversity of 10 microsatellite loci was higher than expected and a change in genetic structuring through time was observed. These results indicate drift effects in this relict European Roller population caused by the fast population breakdown and small population size. Our phylogeographic analysis indicates a division into a European and an Asian group, roughly (but not exactly) in accordance with the two subspecies C. garrulus garrulus (Europe) and Coracias garrulus semenowi (Asia). The lack of substructuring in the European group along with the results from nuclear DNA markers show the Austrian Rollers to be part of a formerly continuous population and opens the way to restocking the present relict population with birds from Eastern Europe (“genetic rescue”).     

THE MIGRATION PATTERNS OF THE PURPLE SANDPIPER CALIDRIS MARITIMA

Summers, R. W. 1994. The migration patterns of the Purple Sandpiper Calidris maritima. Ostrich 65: 167–173.

The Purple Sandpiper breeds largely in the Arctic, and winters (boreal season) on the rocky shores of the north Atlantic, further north than any other sandpiper. As the populations from Canada, Greenland, Iceland, Svalbard, Norway and Russia differ in wing and bill lengths it is possible to match measurements taken from breeding birds with samples of birds caught in winter. Ringing recoveries, especially from colour marked birds, have also helped to determine migration routes and wintering areas. Four populations move to the nearest ice-free coast. Two populations move south of the nearest ice-free coast, being replaced by larger birds from a more northerly population (“chain migration”). Only the north Canadian population is believed to migrate a long distance, “leap-frogging” other winter populations. These patterns are discussed in relation to theories for the migration patterns of waders.     

MIGRATION PHENOLOGY OF WADERS (CHARADRII) ON THE TAIMYR PENINSULA,NORTHERN RUSSIA

Syroechkovski, E.E. Jr. & Lappo, E.G. 1994. Migration phenology of waders (Charadrii) on the Taimyr Peninsula, northern Russia. Ostrich 65:181–190.

Palearctic waders from six flyways breed on the Taimyr Peninsula. They can be observed in winter from Europe to South Africa and Australia. The interval between pre- and postbreeding movements of waders in Taimyr is short. Breeding waders, which spend from 50–70 days on the tundra have a arrival tight schedule, dependent mostly on weather conditions. Most species arrive during the first half of June, with the more northern areas occupied several days later than southern areas. However, Turnstone, Dunlin and Curlew Sandpiper arrive in the optimal art of their breeding ground first, and subsequently occupy sup-optimal areas to the north and the south. In autumn waders migrate in small groups across the tundra. The schedule depends greatly on the breeding success of the year. Large numbers of Ruff and Bartailed Godwit concentrate in high arctic areas, 300–500 km north of their breeding grounds, before commencing southwards migration. Autumn concentrations of waders in intertidal areas are rare.     

Population structure of Purple Sandpipers (Calidris maritima) as revealed by mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites

The Purple Sandpiper (Calidris maritima) is a medium‐sized shorebird that breeds in the Arctic and winters along northern Atlantic coastlines. Migration routes and affiliations between breeding grounds and wintering grounds are incompletely understood. Some populations appear to be declining, and future management policies for this species will benefit from understanding their migration patterns. This study used two mitochondrial DNA markers and 10 microsatellite loci to analyze current population structure and historical demographic trends. Samples were obtained from breeding locations in Nunavut (Canada), Iceland, and Svalbard (Norway) and from wintering locations along the coast of Maine (USA), Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland (Canada), and Scotland (UK). Mitochondrial haplotypes displayed low genetic diversity, and a shallow phylogeny indicating recent divergence. With the exception of the two Canadian breeding populations from Nunavut, there was significant genetic differentiation among samples from all breeding locations; however, none of the breeding populations was a monophyletic group. We also found differentiation between both Iceland and Svalbard breeding populations and North American wintering populations. This pattern of divergence is consistent with a previously proposed migratory pathway between Canadian breeding locations and wintering grounds in the United Kingdom, but argues against migration between breeding grounds in Iceland and Svalbard and wintering grounds in North America. Breeding birds from Svalbard also showed a genetic signature intermediate between Canadian breeders and Icelandic breeders. Our results extend current knowledge of Purple Sandpiper population genetic structure and present new information regarding migration routes to wintering grounds in North America.     

Do migratory pathways affect the regional abundance of wintering birds? A test in northern Spain

Aim The abundance distribution of organisms at regional scales is commonly interpreted as the result of spatial variation in habitat suitability. However, the possibility that geography itself may affect patterns of distribution has received less attention. For example, the abundance of wintering bird populations might be influenced by the cost of reaching areas located far away from the main migratory pathways. We studied the abundance distribution of three common migratory passerines (meadow pipits, Anthus pratensis; common chaffinches, Fringilla coelebs; and European robins, Erithacus rubecula) wintering in farmlands located in the 600‐km long Cantabrian coastal sector of northern Spain, roughly perpendicular to the west Pyrenean migratory pathway that drives European migrant birds into the Iberian Peninsula. Location The study area occupies a belt located between the Atlantic coast and the Cantabrian Mountains in northern Spain. Methods We counted wintering and breeding birds and measured the structure of vegetation and environmental variables (altitude, rainfall, temperature) in 68 farmlands distributed at different distances from the west Pyrenean migratory flyway. We also studied the distribution of birds ringed in central and northern Europe and recovered in the study area between October and February. Analyses were based on single univariate statistics (chi‐square tests), ordination by principal components analysis and multiple regression. Results Controlling for the effects of climate, vegetation structure and local abundance of breeding conspecifics, the winter abundance of all three species decreased with the distance from their main migratory route in the western Pyrenees. Such patterns fitted well to the observed distribution of ringing recoveries. Main conclusions Our results support a link between the movements of birds along the Pyrenean migratory pathway and their winter abundance in northern Spain. According to this view, the sectors located near the migratory pathway seem to be more easily occupied by migrants, supporting the idea that proximity to passage areas may explain the fine‐grain regional patterning of species abundance in wintering grounds.     

Short‐ and long‐term effects of tracking devices on the European Roller Coracias garrulus

Tracking devices have contributed enormously to our knowledge of avian migration, although their effects on birds are controversial. Here, we study the short‐ and long‐term effects of deploying geolocators on European Rollers Coracias garrulus and assess the optimal weight of tracking devices to use. In nests in which both parents had geolocators, brood mass was lighter than in nests where only one or neither parent had a geolocator. The year‐to‐year recapture rate for Rollers tagged with geolocators was lower than that for control birds and the recapture rate in different populations was negatively related to the device‐to‐bird weight ratio, decreasing greatly when the weight ratio exceeded 2.5%.     

Does winter region affect spring arrival time and body mass of king eiders in northern Alaska?

Events during the non-breeding season may affect the body condition of migratory birds and influence performance during the following breeding season. Migratory birds nesting in the Arctic often rely on endogenous nutrients for reproductive efforts, and are thus potentially subject to such carry-over effects. We tested whether king eider (Somateria spectabilis) arrival time and body mass upon arrival at breeding grounds in northern Alaska were affected by their choice of a winter region in the Bering Sea. We captured birds shortly after arrival on breeding grounds in early June 2002–2006 at two sites in northern Alaska and determined the region in which individuals wintered using satellite telemetry or stable isotope ratios of head feathers. We used generalized linear models to assess whether winter region explained variation in arrival body mass among individuals by accounting for sex, site, annual variation, and the date a bird was captured. We found no support for our hypothesis that either arrival time or arrival body mass of king eiders differed among winter regions. We conclude that wintering in different regions in the Bering Sea is unlikely to have reproductive consequences for king eiders in our study areas.     

RELATIVE ABUNDANCE OF CRANES (GRUIDAE) IN THE CAPE PROVINCE

Siegfried, W. R. 1985. Relative abundance of cranes (Gruidae) in the Cape Province. Ostrich 56:101-103.

The results of monthly roadside counts of Crowned Cranes Balearica regulorum, Wattled Cranes Grus carunculatas and Blue Cranes Anthropoides paradisea show that Blue and Crowned cranes occurred most abundantly and densely in the eastern part of the Cape Province in 1965–1966. The Blue Crane's average relative abundance was approximately four times that of the Crowned Crane whose population occupied tend to breed in summer, the Blue Crane slightly earlier than the Crowned Crane. The population of the Wattled Crane was a small relict, occurrin in East Griqualand. Based on a rough estimate, there were about 1000–1500 Crowned Cranes and about 7000–10000 Blue Cranes in the Cape Province in the mid-1960s.     

Range-wide migration corridors and non-breeding areas of a northward expanding Afro-Palaearctic migrant,the European Bee-eater Merops apiaster

Across their ranges, different populations of migratory species often use separate routes to migrate between breeding and non-breeding grounds. Recent changes in climate and land-use have led to breeding range expansions in many species but it is unclear whether these populations also establish new migratory routes, non-breeding sites and migration phenology. Thus, we compared the migration patterns of European Bee-eaters Merops apiaster from two established western (n = 5) and eastern (n = 6) breeding populations in Europe, with those from a newly founded northern population (n = 19). We aimed to relate the breeding populations to the two known non-breeding clusters in Africa, and to test for similarities of migration routes and timing between the old and new populations. Western Bee-eaters used the western flyway to destinations in West Africa; the eastern birds uniformly headed south to southern African non-breeding sites, confirming a complete separation in time and space between these long-established populations. The recently founded northern population, however, also used a western corridor, but crossed the Mediterranean further east than the western population and overwintered mainly in a new non-breeding area in southern Congo/northern Angola. The migration routes and the new non-breeding range overlapped only slightly with the western, but not with the eastern, population. In contrast, migration phenology appeared to differ between the western and both the northern and the eastern populations, with tracked birds from the western population migrating 2–4 weeks earlier. The northern population thus shares some spatial traits with western Bee-eaters, but similar phenology only with eastern population. This divergence highlights the adjustments in the timing of migration to local environmental conditions in newly founded populations, and a parallel establishment of new breeding and non-breeding sites.     

Harbor seal population decline in the Aleutian Archipelago

Populations of Steller sea lions, northern fur seals, and northern sea otters declined substantially during recent decades in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands region, yet the population status of harbor seals has not been assessed adequately. We determined that counts obtained during skiff‐based surveys conducted in 1977–1982 represent the earliest estimate of harbor seal abundance throughout the Aleutian Islands. By comparing counts from 106 islands surveyed in 1977–1982 (8,601 seals) with counts from the same islands during a 1999 aerial survey (2,859 seals), we observed a 67% decline over the ～20‐yr period. Regionally, the largest decline of 86% was in the western Aleutians (n= 7 islands), followed by 66% in the central Aleutians (n= 64 islands), and 45% in the eastern Aleutians (n= 35 islands). Harbor seal counts decreased at the majority of islands in each region, the number of islands with >100 seals decreased ～70%, and the number of islands with no seals counted increased ～80%, indicating that harbor seal abundance throughout the Aleutian Islands was substantially lower in the late 1990s than in the 1970s and 1980s.     

Local and cross‐seasonal associations of climate and land use with abundance of monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus

Quantifying how climate and land use factors drive population dynamics at regional scales is complex because it depends on the extent of spatial and temporal synchrony among local populations, and the integration of population processes throughout a species’ annual cycle. We modeled weekly, site‐specific summer abundance (1994–2013) of monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus at sites across Illinois, USA to assess relative associations of monarch abundance with climate and land use variables during the winter, spring, and summer stages of their annual cycle. We developed negative binomial regression models to estimate monarch abundance during recruitment in Illinois as a function of local climate, site‐specific crop cover, and county‐level herbicide (glyphosate) application. We also incorporated cross‐seasonal covariates, including annual abundance of wintering monarchs in Mexico and climate conditions during spring migration and breeding in Texas, USA. We provide the first empirical evidence of a negative association between county‐level glyphosate application and local abundance of adult monarchs, particularly in areas of concentrated agriculture. However, this association was only evident during the initial years of the adoption of herbicide‐resistant crops (1994–2003). We also found that wetter and, to a lesser degree, cooler springs in Texas were associated with higher summer abundances in Illinois, as were relatively cool local summer temperatures in Illinois. Site‐specific abundance of monarchs averaged approximately one fewer per site from 2004–2013 than during the previous decade, suggesting a recent decline in local abundance of monarch butterflies on their summer breeding grounds in Illinois. Our results demonstrate that seasonal climate and land use are associated with trends in adult monarch abundance, and our approach highlights the value of considering fine‐resolution temporal fluctuations in population‐level responses to environmental conditions when inferring the dynamics of migratory species.     

Increased hunting effort buffers against vole scarcity in an urban Kestrel Falco tinnunculus population

Capsule In years with low vole abundance birds visited hunting grounds more frequently and for longer.

Aims To describe diet composition, hunting behaviour, habitat choice and reproductive success of urban Kestrels during changing vole abundance.

Methods For five years, we studied the hunting effort of Kestrels in a medium-sized city during the breeding season. Pitfall traps were used for determining vole abundance. Kestrel diet composition was determined from pellet analyses. The number of eggs and offspring was recorded during at least two consecutive visits for each nest and each breeding stage.

Results In contrast to larger European cities, the Common Vole Microtus arvalis was a key part of the Kestrels' diet and did not fluctuate significantly according to vole availability. Reproductive success was quite high and stable throughout years with different vole abundance. In years of low vole abundance, the arrival frequency at hunting grounds and time spent there increased. During years with a low vole population, Kestrels had less hunting success and the rate of successful visits decreased. Therefore, Kestrels probably had to change hunting grounds more frequently. During low vole years Kestrels used less demanding techniques, e.g. perching, despite the lower success of these hunting techniques, to avoid extremely high energetic costs.

Conclusions An increase in hunting helps to maintain a proper diet and consequently reproductive success. Vole abundance did not change dramatically during the study period, as reported by studies from western and northern Europe. The proportion of ruderal habitats on the city periphery is higher than in more monotonous farmland habitats. Ruderal habitats can be important when Kestrels look for mammals other than voles, especially during vole scarcity.     

THE INFLUENCE OF HABITAT ON THE DISTRIBUTION AND ABUNDANCE OF PEREGRINE AND LANNER FALCONS IN SOUTH AFRICA

Jenkins, A.R. 1994. The influence of habitat on the distribution and abundance of Peregrine and Lanner Falcons in South Africa. Ostrich 65: 281–290.

The distribution and abundance of Peregrine and Lanner Falcons in South Africa was compared using recorded sightings from various sources, including the Southern African Bird Atlas Project. Falcon distributions were compared with the distribution of cliffs and vegetation, to quantify differences in the habitat preferences of the two species in the breeding and the non-breeding seasons. Lanner Falcons outnumbered Peregrine Falcons in most areas by at least 10:1. Peregrine Falcons were more habitat specific than Lanner Falcons, in terms of topographic and biotic requirements. Peregrine Falcons were largely restricted to high cliff areas throughout the year and there probably were no large-scale seasonal movements within the population. The bulk of the resident Peregrine Falcon population was found in the fynbos biome, in the southwestern Cape. Outside of this area, Peregrine Falcons were concentrated in woodlands. Lanner Falcons were less dependent on high cliffs, although cliff availability was important in defining the ranges of both species. Lanner Falcons were most common in the sour grasslands in the east of the country in the breeding season, with apparent movements in the non-breeding season into the fynbos, the Nama Karoo and the southern Kalahari. Overall, Peregrine Falcons favoured relatively closed habitats and Lanner Falcons favoured relatively open habitats. The differences in the two species' habitat preferences are proximate factors influencing distribution and abundance.     

Effects of grassland management on overwintering bird communities

Birds that depend on grassland and successional-scrub vegetation communities are experiencing a greater decline than any other avian assemblage in North America. Habitat loss and degradation on breeding and wintering grounds are among the leading causes of these declines. We used public and private lands in northern Virginia, USA, to explore benefits of grassland management and associated field structure on supporting overwintering bird species from 2013 to 2016. Specifically, we used non-metric multidimensional scaling and multispecies occupancy models to compare species richness and habitat associations of grassland-obligate and successional-scrub species during winter in fields comprised of native warm-season grasses (WSG) or non-native cool-season grasses (CSG) that were managed at different times of the year. Results demonstrated positive correlations of grassland-obligate species with decreased vegetation structure and a higher percentage of grass cover, whereas successional-scrub species positively correlated with increased vegetation structure and height and increased percentages of woody stems, forb cover, and bare ground. Fields of WSG supported higher estimated total and target species richness compared to fields of CSG. Estimated species richness was also influenced by management timing, with fields managed during the previous winter or left unmanaged exhibiting higher estimated richness than fields managed in summer or fall. Warm-season grass fields managed in the previous winter or left unmanaged had higher estimated species richness than any other treatment group. This study identifies important winter habitat associations (e.g., vegetation height and field openness) with species abundance and richness and can be used to make inferences about optimal management practices for overwintering avian species in eastern grasslands of North America. © 2019 The Authors. Journal of Wildlife Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

MIGRANT SHOREBIRDS IN THE SEYCHELLES

The aim of this paper was to assess the status of migrant shorebirds in the Seychelles. Most observations were concentrated on two areas: a 6 ha mudflat at Victoria, Mahé, and open areas of Bird Island. A systematic list of all shorebirds that have been recorded in the Seychelles is given, including data on abundance and their incidence on other islands of the Malagasy region. Most of the Seychelles migrants probably originate from the north and east, i.e., the central and eastern Palaearctic, and arrive after a sea-crossing of over 1600 km. Highest numbers of species and of individuals occurred in the Seychelles during the northern winter, but about one third of the species recorded were also present, in reduced numbers, in the summer. Few birds in breeding plumage were seen; probably most birds, especially those which summered, were immature. Numbers of both summering and wintering birds varied from year to year, these variations probably being related to breeding success at higher latitudes.     

Breeding ground temperature rises,more than habitat change,are associated with spatially variable population trends in two species of migratory bird

Habitat loss and climate change are key drivers of global biodiversity declines but their relative importance has rarely been examined. We attempted to attribute spatially divergent population trends of two Afro-Palaearctic migrant warbler species, Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus and Common Chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita, to changes in breeding grounds climate or habitat. We used bird counts from over 4000 sites across the UK between 1994 and 2017, monitored as part of the BTO/JNCC/RSPB Breeding Bird Survey. We modelled Willow Warbler and Common Chiffchaff population size and growth in relation to habitat, climate and weather. We then used the abundance model coefficients and observed environmental changes to determine the extent to which spatially varying population trends in England and Scotland were consistent with attribution to climate and habitat changes. Both species' population size and growth correlated with habitat, climate and weather on their breeding grounds. Changes in habitat, in particular woodland expansion, could be linked to small population increases for both species in England and Scotland. Both species' populations correlated more strongly with climate than weather, and both had an optimum breeding season temperature: 11°C for Willow Warbler and around 13.5°C for Common Chiffchaff (with marginally different predictions from population size and growth models). Breeding ground temperature increases, therefore, had the potential to have caused some of the observed Willow Warbler declines in England (where the mean breeding season temperature was 12.7°C) and increases in Scotland (mean breeding season temperature was 10.2°C), and some of the differential rates of increase for Common Chiffchaff. However, much of the variation in species' population abundance and trends were not well predicted by our models and could be due to other factors, such as species interactions, habitat and climate change in their wintering grounds and on migration. This study provides evidence that the effect of climate change on a species may vary spatially and may switch from being beneficial to being detrimental if a temperature threshold is exceeded.     

Climatic connectivity between Africa and Europe may serve as a basis for phenotypic adjustment of migration schedules of trans-Saharan migratory birds

Most European migratory birds wintering in sub‐Saharan Africa have anticipated arrival to the breeding areas over the past decades. This phenological change may be ultimately caused by warming of the Northern Hemisphere via evolutionary changes or phenotypic plasticity in migration behavior. First arrival dates are negatively predicted by temperatures upon arrival to the breeding grounds. This seems puzzling, because migrants should be unable to predict weather conditions at long range. Migrants can enjoy diverse fitness benefits from early arriving. However, if weather conditions at destination cannot be predicted, early arrival can also entail severe costs. If meteorological conditions in Europe during breeding covary with those in sub‐Saharan Africa during late winter, long‐distance migrants may have a clue to predict meteorological conditions in their breeding areas while they are still in Africa and adjust their migration schedule consequently, an idea that has never been tested. We analyzed the correlation between March–April temperature anomalies (T_an) in Europe and February T_an in the Sahel and sub‐Sahel, where long‐distance migrants winter or stop‐over. T_an in Africa negatively predicted T_an in Europe, the association being particularly strong (unsigned effect size, z_r>0.35) for eastern Sahel and northern and eastern Europe, where the risks of early arrival may be larger. However, the strength of the correlations between T_an in the two continents has declined during the last 25 years; thus, possibly, partly compromising adaptive mechanisms of adjustment of migration. The existence of such climatic connectivity leads to several predictions, including that positive T_an in Africa should delay arrival. Consistent with this prediction, we found that first arrival dates of seven long‐distance migratory species positively covaried with February T_an in Africa. Thus, while wintering, migrants might be able to predict meteorological conditions at the beginning of the breeding season, and phenotypically adjust migration schedules to optimally tune arrival date.     

Interspecific competition between introduced house finch populations and two associated passerine species

Summary House Finches (Carpodacus mexicanus), natives of western North America, have expanded their range in the eastern United States since their 1940 release in New York City. Range and the relation of House Finch population growth to the population dynamics of House Sparrows (Passer domesticus) and Purple Finches (Carpodacus purpureus) were examined, using data from the Breeding Bird Survey and the Christmas Bird Count. The House Finch population grew exponentially throughout its eastern range. Significant negative relationships in population density, relative to spatial and temporal control populations, were found between House Finches and House Sparrows in summer and winter, and between House Finches and Purple Finches in summer. Purple Finch and House Sparrow populations outside of the House Finch range appeared to have no effect on each other throughout the study. Neither changes in 74 weather variables, nor changes in forest, field or developed habitat explained the observed trends in population density. The results indicate that House Finches compete with these two species, but winter migration complicates the picture.