The influence of climate and topography in patterns of territory establishment in a range‐expanding bird

The Dartford Warbler Sylvia undata has recently expanded its range northwards and upwards in the UK, consistent with the hypothesis that this cold‐sensitive species has responded to a warming climate. We interrogated distribution data, collected during four national surveys of this species between 1974 and 2006, to assess whether this large‐scale range expansion has been accompanied by finer‐scale changes in topographic characteristics of breeding locations. Within sites occupied in successive surveys, there was some evidence of limited altitudinal expansion between surveys. Within wider landscapes occupied in successive surveys, the preceding winter climate tended to be harsher at newly colonized sites than at sites that had already been occupied in the previous survey, while territories in newly colonized sites also tended to be on steeper slopes, especially if at higher altitude, and (in 1994 only) to be more south‐facing. Territories in sites that had already been occupied in the previous survey tended to be lower altitude, less steep and more north‐facing than territories in newly colonized landscapes. In 2006 only, the winter climate was significantly milder in newly colonized landscapes than in already occupied sites. The combined effects of a changing climate and topography may have influenced the pattern of in‐filling in the existing range, while colonization of distant areas, especially more latterly, may have been facilitated by a combination of increased dispersal pressure from the existing range and warming of climate which made higher altitude habitat in the new areas more suitable for occupancy. Careful consideration needs to be given to the importance of fine‐scale topographical variation in determining species’ responses to climate change in order to underpin robust adaptation strategies.     

The social organization and territoriality of short-tailed shrew (Blarina brevicauda) populations in old-field habitats

The social organization of short-tailed shrew (Blarina brevicauda) populations was studied using field and laboratory experiments and observation of a shrew population inside a large enclosure. Short-tailed shrew populations contain resident and nomadic components. Residents occupy small stationary areas at high prey densities and larger areas that are shifted frequently at low prey densities. Areas occupied by residents overlap minimally in winter, non-breeding populations. In summer breeding populations areas occupied by residents of the same sex do not overlap while those of residents of opposite sexes may overlap. Residents defend the area occupied against conspecifics. Scent markings along boundaries appear to maintain the spatial distribution of residents and deter intrusions by nomadic shrews. During encounters vocalizations function as offensive threats, and attacks and chases follow if the intruding shrew does not retreat. Visual communication appears to be less important than chemical and vocal communication in the defence of the area occupied. These data suggest that Blarina is a solitary territorial species.     

Modelling the winter distribution of a rare and endangered migrant, the Aquatic Warbler Acrocephalus paludicola

The Aquatic Warbler Acrocephalus paludicola is one of the most threatened Western Palearctic passerine species, classified as globally Vulnerable. With its breeding grounds relatively secure, a clear need remains for the monitoring and protection of the migration and wintering grounds of this rare and endangered migrant. Recent research has shown that the Aquatic Warbler migrates through northwest Africa in autumn and spring. The wintering grounds are apparently limited to wetlands of sub-Saharan West Africa, with records from only about 20 localities in Mauritania, Mali, Senegal and Ghana. Given the lack of knowledge of its whereabouts, we decided to use the available data to predict the wintering distribution of the Aquatic Warbler with the help of Geographic Information Systems (GIS). We used a novel approach to model the distribution of rarely recorded species, which is based on a combination of presence-only and presence–absence modelling techniques. Using the program BIOMOD, we thus generated four progressively more conservative predictions of where the Aquatic Warbler overwinters in Africa. Whereas the most permissive model predicts the Aquatic Warbler to be found in a latitudinal band stretching from the Senegal river delta all the way to the Red Sea coast, the most restrictive model suggests a much smaller area concentrated within the regions around the Senegal river delta in northern Senegal and southern Mauritania and around the Niger inundation zone in southern Mali and eastern Burkina Faso. Such model predictions may be useful guidelines to focus further field research on the Aquatic Warbler. Given the excellent model predictions in this study, this novel technique may prove useful to model the distribution of other rare and endangered species, thus providing a means to guide future survey efforts.     

Sighting frequency and relative abundance of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) along the northeast coast of Margarita Island and Los Frailes Archipelago, Venezuela

The study of local cetaceans in Venezuela has a very recent history, and few efforts have been made in the assessment of coastal populations based on field research. The occurrence of whales and dolphins along the northeast coast of Venezuela has been documented through sightings and stranding records. Given the underwater topographical features and the influence of upwelling processes, this area is considered a very productive coastal ecosystem. Our objective was to establish the sighting frequency and relative abundance of bottlenose dolphins in the area. Sighting records were gathered on bottlenose dolphins and other cetacean species occurring along the northeast coast of Margarita Island and Los Frailes Archipelago through direct observation during land-based (6 surveys, 48 hours of observation) and boat-based surveys (24 surveys, 121 hours of observation, 1295 km covered). A sighting frequency was calculated using two methodologies and then compared, considering: 1) a mean effective observation time (4.27 hours), and 2) distance covered with cetacean sightings (1108 kin). A third method is proposed relating a mean effective distance covered with cetacean sightings and expressed as a percentage. The abundance index was calculated using the mean effective observation time. The sighting frequency of Tursiops truncattus in the study area was 3 - 4 sightings per day of 4.27 observation hours, or by 185 kilometers covered. The relative abundance was calculated as 35 dolphins in the study area, so a total population of less than 60 dolphins could inhabit the proposed range. Tursiops truncatus is the dominant species in the northeast coast of Margarita Island and Los Frailes Archipelago with 70% of all the sightings, so this locality could be termed as the distribution range of a possible local population of bottlenose dolphins.     

SEASONAL DISTRIBUTION OF STELLER'S SEA LIONS AT ROOKERIES AND HAUL-OUT SITES IN ALASKA

The Steller's sea lion population has declined by 60%-70% over much of Alaska since the late 1970s. Overlap in species composition and sizes of fishes consumed by sea lions and harvested by commercial fisheries, particularly during winter, has led to examination of potential interaction between commercial fisheries and Steller's sea lions. Abundance and distribution data for Steller's sea lions in Alaska were derived from aerial surveys conducted during the breeding season, mid-June to early July 1992, 1994, and 1996. To study winter distribution of sea lions, we conducted aerial surveys during March 1993, November-December 1994, and March 1999. We counted about one-half as many sea lions during winter surveys compared to the breeding-season surveys. Numbers of sea lions at rookery sites dropped off considerably during winter, whereas numbers at haul-out sites did not. We found little evidence of large-scale, seasonal movement, at least for the western stock of sea lions. Rather, differences between summer and winter distribution were primarily a function of sea lions dispersing to local haul-out sites during the winter. Terrestrial sites, both rookeries and haul-outs, clearly are important to Steller's sea lions during the entire year. Individual sites may be occupied year-round or only during particular times of year.     

BLUE WHALE (BALAENOPTERA MUSCULUS)DISTRIBUTION IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC

The distribution of blue whales, Balaenoptera musculus , in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) was analyzed from 211 sightings of 355 whales recorded during research vessel sighting surveys or by biologists aboard fishing vessels. Over 90% of the sightings were made in just two areas: along Baja California, and in the vicinity of the Costa Rica Dome (a large, stationary eddy centered near 9°N, 89°W), with the rest made along the equator near the Galapagos islands, the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru. All sightings occurred in relatively cool, upwelling-modified waters. Because these areas are the most productive parts of the ETP, and have relatively large standing stocks of euphausiids, it seems possible that blue whales select low latitude habitats which permit foraging. The waters off western Baja California were occupied seasonally, with a peak in sightings coinciding with the spring peak in upwelling and biological production. The Costa Rica Dome area was occupied year round, suggesting either a resident population, or that both northern and southern hemisphere whales visit, with temporal overlap. The modal group size was one for all areas and seasons, but the frequency of groups with two or more whales was significantly higher in sightings made near the Galapagos Islands and the coast of Ecuador and northern Peru.     

委内瑞拉东南加勒比海岸七种海洋鲸类的潜在地理分布

本研究阐述了委内瑞拉沿海最常见的海洋鲸类的潜在地理分布情况。通过GIS分析,鲸类分布与地形和深度是相反的,以此可以获得鲸类潜在的分布图。已报告确认了16个物种(有402个目击报告),其中小布氏鲸(Balaenoptera edeni)、座头鲸(Megaptera novaeangliae)、海豚(Delphinus spp.)、圭亚那侏型豚(Sotalia guianensis)、花斑原海豚(Stenella frontalis)、长吻原海豚(Stenella longirostris)和宽吻海海豚(Tursiops truncatus)是最常见的。小布氏鲸和宽吻海海豚有可能分布于整个海岸,包括江河区域。座头鲸则可能季节性地集中分布在大陆架上的海岛沿岸和浅水区域。海豚(Delphinus spp.)有可能分布于高边坡区或沿海上升流区。花斑原海豚可能分布在东北区的西部,中部沿海以及与委内瑞拉海岸平行的岛屿周围。长吻原海豚则分布于浅海和远海区域。在一些高产的生态系统内新的物种可能正在形成,而这些潜在可能的分布图可以作为在高产生态系统内确立关键栖息地的标准,由此我们可以在委内瑞拉水域为鲸类建立新的保护区。     

Occurrence of dwarf minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata subsp.) around the Antarctic Peninsula

The occurrence of dwarf minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata subsp.) around the Antarctic Peninsula was examined based on 406 sightings of minke whales recorded during the Chilean Antarctic Scientific Expeditions and other opportunistic cetacean surveys. Identification of the species was made only for the whales sighted in the proximity of the vessels when the specific diagnostic characters could be confirmed. Of the 406 sightings, 296 were assigned to Antarctic (519 individuals), nine (11 individuals) to dwarf and 101 to unidentified minke whales (149 individuals). Dwarf minke whales were identified by the reported external diagnostic characters for this species. Seven animals occurred around the South Shetland Island and four in the Gerlache Strait. In addition, another two animals were identified as dwarf minke whales in the Bellinghausen Sea in winter 1993, being these the most southern records for this species. These results confirm the occurrence of dwarf minke whales around the Antarctic Peninsula during the summer seasons, as well as in the Bellinghausen Sea in winter. The geographical range of these sightings was comprised between 61°03′ and 69°25′S and between 55°29′ and 86°53′W. These results also suggest that some dwarf minke whales remain in the Antarctic during the austral winter.     

Distribution and New Sightings of Goeldi’s Monkey (Callimico goeldii) in Amazonian Perú

There is a general consensus on the geographic distributions of many primate species; however, the continuity and validity of species range maps are often inaccurate on a local scale. In the case of rare and cryptic species, census methodology is often insufficiently rigorous or specialized, resulting in probable false negatives. Callimico goeldii is a rare primate, with most of its geographical range purported to lie in Perú. We evaluate the accuracy of its predicted geographic range within Perú with an assessment of mammal surveys over the last 40?yr and the inclusion of new sightings from three sites. We found that of all 340 study sites, only 10.9?% indicate that this species is present, and only 51?% of these sites receive any government protection. The Sierra del Divisor Reserve Zone and the Rodal Tahuamanu Conservation Concession have the highest estimated densities of Callimico goeldii. We suggest using focal follows of sympatric tamarins and vocalization playbacks rather than traditional line transects to improve the likelihood of locating this species. Although the current range maps based on the available data are likely an exaggeration of the species’ true range, the inherent imperfections of standard census methodology when applied to rare and cryptic species can lead to underrepresentative range maps as well. For these reasons, it is clear that the current distribution map for Callimico goeldii is imprecise, and until its distribution is reassessed, its conservation status cannot be confirmed.     

Spatially explicit estimation of occupancy,detection probability and survey effort needed to inform conservation planning

Aim It is increasingly recognized the importance of accounting for imperfect detection in species distribution modelling and conservation planning. However, the integration of detectability into a spatially explicit frame has received little attention. We aim (1) to show how to develop distribution maps of both detection probability and survey effort required to reliably determine a species presence/absence and (2) to increase awareness of the spatial variation of detection error inherent in studies of species occurrence. Location North‐western Spain. Methods  We registered the presence/absence of the endangered Egyptian vulture (Neophron percnopterus) in 213 surveys performed in 40 of 104 territories once known to be occupied. We model simultaneously both detection probability and occurrence, using site occupancy modelling. With the resulting regression equations, we developed distribution maps of both detection probability and required sampling effort throughout the area. Results Of the studied territories, 72.5% were detected as occupied, but after accounting for imperfect detection, the proportion of sites truly occupied was 79%. Detectability decreased in territories with higher topographical irregularity and increased with both the time of day of the survey and the progress of the season. Spatial distribution of detectability showed a mainly north–south gradient following the distribution of slope in the area. The likelihood of occupancy increased with rockier, less forested surface and less topographical irregularity within the territory. A minimum of five surveys, on average, are needed to assess, with 95% probability, the occupancy status of a site, ranging from ≤ 3 to > 24 visits/territory depending on survey‐ and site‐specific features. Main conclusions Accounting for detectability and its sources of variation allows us to elaborate distribution maps of detectability‐based survey effort. These maps are useful tools to reliably assess (e.g. with 95% probability) occupancy status throughout a landscape and provide guidance for species conservation planning.     

A Pragmatic Approach for Determining Otter Distribution from Disparate Occurrence Records

Opportunistic records of animal occurrence may be problematic for inferring species distribution and habitat requirements because of unknown and uncontrolled sources of sampling variance. In this study, we used occurrence records for river otters (Lontra canadensis) derived from sign surveys, road kills, trapper bycatch, and opportunistic sightings (n = 185 records collected 2001–2012) to assess the potential distribution and habitat relationships of otters across central and western New York, USA. To mitigate for obvious observation biases, we standardized observation intensity across regions a priori and restricted inference to readily accessible areas (i.e., ≤700 m from the nearest road). Model selection, and the direction of covariate effects, proved robust to these sampling biases although effect sizes varied −7.1% to +48.0% after bias correction, with the coefficient for the proportion of available shoreline being the most unstable. Ultimately, the top bias-corrected model proved a reliable index for otter probability of occurrence given a strong, positive, and linear relationship with a withheld set of standardized survey records for otters collected in winter 2016–2017 (n = 57; R² = 0.90). This model indicated that approximately 20% of the study area represented high probability of otter occurrence. We demonstrated that reliable inference on wildlife habitat requirements can be obtained from disparate records of animal occurrence provided that data biases are known and effectively mitigated. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Integrating multiple data sources to assess the distribution and abundance of bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus in Scottish waters

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Climatic patterns in the establishment of wintering areas by North American migratory birds

Long‐distance migration in birds is relatively well studied in nature; however, one aspect of this phenomenon that remains poorly understood is the pattern of distribution presented by species during arrival to and establishment of wintering areas. Some studies suggest that the selection of areas in winter is somehow determined by climate, given its influence on both the distribution of bird species and their resources. We analyzed whether different migrant passerine species of North America present climatic preferences during arrival to and departure from their wintering areas. We used ecological niche modeling to generate monthly potential climatic distributions for 13 migratory bird species during the winter season by combining the locations recorded per month with four environmental layers. We calculated monthly coefficients of climate variation and then compared two GLM (generalized linear models), evaluated with the AIC (Akaike information criterion), to describe how these coefficients varied over the course of the season, as a measure of the patterns of establishment in the wintering areas. For 11 species, the sites show nonlinear patterns of variation in climatic preferences, with low coefficients of variation at the beginning and end of the season and higher values found in the intermediate months. The remaining two species analyzed showed a different climatic pattern of selective establishment of wintering areas, probably due to taxonomic discrepancy, which would affect their modeled winter distribution. Patterns of establishment of wintering areas in the species showed a climatic preference at the macroscale, suggesting that individuals of several species actively select wintering areas that meet specific climatic conditions. This probably gives them an advantage over the winter and during the return to breeding areas. As these areas become full of migrants, alternative suboptimal sites are occupied. Nonrandom winter area selection may also have consequences for the conservation of migratory bird species, particularly under a scenario of climate change.     

Ecophysiological constraints shape autumn migratory response to climate change in the North American field sparrow

Our ability to accurately forecast species' geographical responses to climate change requires knowledge of the proximate and ultimate drivers of their distribution. Here, we consider the ecophysiological and demographic determinants of the distribution of a partial migrant, the North American field sparrow, Spizella pusilla. From 1940 to 1963, the field sparrow extended its winter northern range margin 222km polewards. Such expansion was coincident with not only a geographical expansion into suitable breeding habitats, but also a decrease in mean abundance across sites occupied during the winter surveys. Combined, these trends suggest that declining populations along the expansion front either stopped migrating or altered their autumn migration. The poleward expansion was not coincident with climatically induced decreases in peak metabolic energy demand, but it did track increases in ecosystem net primary productivity. After 1963, the species' lower lethal temperature prevented further poleward movement. These findings show how different ecophysiological constraints can interact to change migration and distribution in a demographically declining species.     

Habitat selection of the globally threatened Aquatic Warbler Acrocephalus paludicola at the western margin of its breeding range and implications for management

The globally threatened Aquatic Warbler Acrocephalus paludicola is an umbrella species for fen mires and is at risk of extinction in its westernmost breeding population due to severe habitat loss. We used boosted regression trees to model Aquatic Warbler habitat selection in order to make recommendations for effective management of the last remnant habitats. Habitat data were collected in the years 2004–2006 in all remaining breeding sites in Pomerania (eastern Germany and western Poland) as well as in recently abandoned sites. Models were validated using data from similar Aquatic Warbler habitats in Lithuania. The probability of occurrence of Aquatic Warblers in late May/early June was positively associated with low isolation from other occupied sites, less eutrophic conditions, a high proportion of area mown early in the preceding year, high availability of vegetation 60–70 cm high, high prey abundance and high habitat heterogeneity. Early summer land management is needed in the more productive sites to prevent habitat deterioration by succession to higher and denser vegetation. As this also poses a serious threat to broods, management that creates a mosaic of early and late used patches is recommended to preserve and restore productive Aquatic Warbler sites. In less productive sites, winter mowing can maintain suitable habitat conditions. Aquatic Warbler‐friendly land use supports a variety of other threatened plant and animal species typical of fens and sedge meadows and can meet the economic interests of local land users.     

Cetacean surveys in the Southern Ocean using icebreaker-supported helicopters

Cetaceans in the Southern Ocean are potentially impacted by anthropogenic activities, such as direct hunting or through indirect effects of a reduced sea ice due to climate change. Knowledge on the distribution of cetacean species in this area is important for conservation, but the remoteness of the study area and the presence of sea ice make it difficult to conduct shipboard surveys to obtain this information. In this study, aerial surveys were conducted from ship-based helicopters. In the 2006/07 (ANT XXIII/8) and 2008/09 (ANT XXV/2) polar summers, the icebreaker RV ‘Polarstern’ conducted research cruises in the Weddell Sea, which offered the opportunity to use the helicopters to conduct dedicated cetacean surveys. Combining the results from both cruises, over 26,000 km were covered on survey effort, 13 different cetacean species were identified, and a total of 221 cetacean sightings consisting of a total of 650 animals were made. Using digital photography, it was possible to identify four different beaked whale species and to conduct individual photo-identification of humpback and southern right whales. Helicopter surveys allow the collection of additional information on sightings, (e.g. group size, species), as well as the coverage of areas with high ice coverage. The flexibility and manoeuvrability of helicopters make them a powerful scientific tool to investigate cetaceans in the Southern Ocean, especially in combination with an icebreaker.     

Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate‐driven range shifts?

Shifts in species ranges are a global phenomenon, well known to occur in response to a changing climate. New species arriving in an area may become pest species, modify ecosystem structure, or represent challenges or opportunities for fisheries and recreation. Early detection of range shifts and prompt implementation of any appropriate management strategies is therefore crucial. This study investigates whether ‘first sightings’ of marine species outside their normal ranges could provide an early warning of impending climate‐driven range shifts. We examine the relationships between first sightings and marine regions defined by patterns of local climate velocities (calculated on a 50‐year timescale), while also considering the distribution of observational effort (i.e. number of sampling days recorded with biological observations in global databases). The marine trajectory regions include climate ‘source’ regions (areas lacking connections to warmer areas), ‘corridor’ regions (areas where moving isotherms converge), and ‘sink’ regions (areas where isotherms locally disappear). Additionally, we investigate the latitudinal band in which first sightings were recorded, and species’ thermal affiliations. We found that first sightings are more likely to occur in climate sink and ‘divergent’ regions (areas where many rapid and diverging climate trajectories pass through) indicating a role of temperature in driving changes in marine species distributions. The majority of our fish first sightings appear to be tropical and subtropical species moving towards high latitudes, as would be expected in climate warming. Our results indicate that first sightings are likely related to longer‐term climatic processes, and therefore have potential use to indicate likely climate‐driven range shifts. The development of an approach to detect impending range shifts at an early stage will allow resource managers and researchers to better manage opportunities resulting from range‐shifting species before they potentially colonize.     

Estimating the size of a transient population

Migratory populations often stop over for short periods of time at predictable sites along their migration routes. These staging areas can be heavily used and are potentially critical to the survival of the migrants. This paper presents a method for estimating the number of individuals using such an area and their average residence time. The estimator is based on daily population estimates and records of repeat sightings of identifiable individuals. Its application is illustrated with observations on a population of migrating birds, some of which could be identified from bands that were readable from a distance.     

Integrating field surveys and remote sensing data to study distribution, habitat use and conservation status of the herpetofauna of the Comoro Islands

We studied the non-marine reptile and amphibian species of the volcanic Comoro archipelago in the Western Indian Ocean, a poorly known island herpetofauna comprising numerous microendemic species of potentially high extinction risk and widespread, non-endemic and often invasive taxa. According to our data, the Comoro islands are inhabited by two amphibian species and at least 28 species of reptiles although ongoing genetic studies and unconfirmed historical records suggest an even higher species diversity. 14 of the 28 currently recognized species of terrestrial reptiles (50%) and the two amphibians are endemic to a single island or to the Comoro archipelago. The majority of species are most abundant at low elevation. However, a few endemic species, like the gekkonid lizards Paroedura sanctijohannis and Phelsuma nigristriata, are more common in or even confined to higher altitudes. We created habitat maps from remotely sensed data in combination with detailed species distribution maps produced using comprehensive data from field surveys between 2000 and 2010, literature, and historical locality records based on specimens in zoological collections. Using these data, we assessed the conservation status of the endemic terrestrial reptiles and amphibians according to the IUCN Red List criteria. Our results show that although little area of natural forest remains on the Comoros, many species are abundant in degraded forest or plantations. Competition and predation by invasive species appears to be the most important threat factor for the endemic herpetofauna, together with habitat degradation and destruction, which further favours invasive species. We propose the status Endangered for three species, Vulnerable for one species, Near Threatened for six species, Least Concern for four and Data Deficient for two species. The endemic subspecies Oplurus cuvieri comorensis is proposed for the status Critically Endangered. Based on the results of this study, seven areas of importance for reptile and amphibian conservation on the Comoros are identified. This study shows how remote sensing data can contribute to increasing accuracy and objectiveness of conservation assessments.     

Flight areas of British butterflies: assessing species status and decline

Geographical range size is a key ecological variable, but the consequences of measuring range size in different ways are poorly understood. We use high-resolution population data from British butterflies to demonstrate that conventional distribution maps, widely used by conservation biologists, grossly overestimate the areas occupied by species and grossly underestimate decline. The approximate flight areas occupied by 20 out of 45 colonial British species were estimated to cover a median of only 1.44% of the land surface within occupied regions. Common species were found to be declining faster than conventional distribution maps suggest: common and rare species had no significant difference in their population-level rates of extinction. This, combined with the log-normal form of the range-size frequency distribution, implies that species-level extinction rates may accelerate in the medium to long term. Population-level conservation is a matter of great urgency for all species, not just for the rarest.