msABC: a modification of Hudson's ms to facilitate multi-locus ABC analysis

With the availability of whole-genome sequence data biologists are able to test hypotheses regarding the demography of populations. Furthermore, the advancement of the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methodology allows the demographic inference to be performed in a simple framework using summary statistics. We present here msABC, a coalescent-based software that facilitates the simulation of multi-locus data, suitable for an ABC analysis. msABC is based on Hudson's ms algorithm, which is used extensively for simulating neutral demographic histories of populations. The flexibility of the original algorithm has been extended so that sample size may vary among loci, missing data can be incorporated in simulations and calculations, and a multitude of summary statistics for single or multiple populations is generated. The source code of msABC is available at http://bio.lmu.de/~pavlidis/msabc or upon request from the authors.     

ESS++: a C++ objected-oriented algorithm for Bayesian stochastic search model exploration

SUMMARY: ESS++ is a C++ implementation of a fully Bayesian variable selection approach for single and multiple response linear regression. ESS++ works well both when the number of observations is larger than the number of predictors and in the 'large p, small n' case. In the current version, ESS++ can handle several hundred observations, thousands of predictors and a few responses simultaneously. The core engine of ESS++ for the selection of relevant predictors is based on Evolutionary Monte Carlo. Our implementation is open source, allowing community-based alterations and improvements. AVAILABILITY: C++ source code and documentation including compilation instructions are available under GNU licence at http://bgx.org.uk/software/ESS.html.     

BNFinder: exact and efficient method for learning Bayesian networks

MOTIVATION: Bayesian methods are widely used in many different areas of research. Recently, it has become a very popular tool for biological network reconstruction, due to its ability to handle noisy data. Even though there are many software packages allowing for Bayesian network reconstruction, only few of them are freely available to researchers. Moreover, they usually require at least basic programming abilities, which restricts their potential user base. Our goal was to provide software which would be freely available, efficient and usable to non-programmers. RESULTS: We present a BNFinder software, which allows for Bayesian network reconstruction from experimental data. It supports dynamic Bayesian networks and, if the variables are partially ordered, also static Bayesian networks. The main advantage of BNFinder is the use exact algorithm, which is at the same time very efficient (polynomial with respect to the number of observations).     

BioBayes: a software package for Bayesian inference in systems biology

MOTIVATION: There are several levels of uncertainty involved in the mathematical modelling of biochemical systems. There often may be a degree of uncertainty about the values of kinetic parameters, about the general structure of the model and about the behaviour of biochemical species which cannot be observed directly. The methods of Bayesian inference provide a consistent framework for modelling and predicting in these uncertain conditions. We present a software package for applying the Bayesian inferential methodology to problems in systems biology. RESULTS: Described herein is a software package, BioBayes, which provides a framework for Bayesian parameter estimation and evidential model ranking over models of biochemical systems defined using ordinary differential equations. The package is extensible allowing additional modules to be included by developers. There are no other such packages available which provide this functionality.     

bgc: Software for Bayesian estimation of genomic clines

Introgression in admixed populations can be used to identify candidate loci that might underlie adaptation or reproductive isolation. The Bayesian genomic cline model provides a framework for quantifying variable introgression in admixed populations and identifying regions of the genome with extreme introgression that are potentially associated with variation in fitness. Here we describe the bgc software, which uses Markov chain Monte Carlo to estimate the joint posterior probability distribution of the parameters in the Bayesian genomic cline model and designate outlier loci. This software can be used with next‐generation sequence data, accounts for uncertainty in genotypic state, and can incorporate information from linked loci on a genetic map. Output from the analysis is written to an HDF5 file for efficient storage and manipulation. This software is written in C++ . The source code, software manual, compilation instructions and example data sets are available under the GNU Public License at http://sites.google.com/site/bgcsoftware/ .     

MRBAYES: Bayesian inference of phylogenetic trees

SUMMARY: The program MRBAYES performs Bayesian inference of phylogeny using a variant of Markov chain Monte Carlo. AVAILABILITY: MRBAYES, including the source code, documentation, sample data files, and an executable, is available at http://brahms.biology.rochester.edu/software.html.     

SPREAD: spatial phylogenetic reconstruction of evolutionary dynamics

SUMMARY: SPREAD is a user-friendly, cross-platform application to analyze and visualize Bayesian phylogeographic reconstructions incorporating spatial-temporal diffusion. The software maps phylogenies annotated with both discrete and continuous spatial information and can export high-dimensional posterior summaries to keyhole markup language (KML) for animation of the spatial diffusion through time in virtual globe software. In addition, SPREAD implements Bayes factor calculation to evaluate the support for hypotheses of historical diffusion among pairs of discrete locations based on Bayesian stochastic search variable selection estimates. SPREAD takes advantage of multicore architectures to process large joint posterior distributions of phylogenies and their spatial diffusion and produces visualizations as compelling and interpretable statistical summaries for the different spatial projections. AVAILABILITY: SPREAD is licensed under the GNU Lesser GPL and its source code is freely available as a GitHub repository: https://github.com/phylogeography/SPREAD CONTACT: filip.bielejec@rega.kuleuven.be.     

Bayesian multiple quantitative trait loci mapping for complex traits using markers of the entire genome

A Bayesian methodology has been developed for multiple quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping of complex binary traits that follow liability threshold models. Unlike most QTL mapping methods where only one or a few markers are used at a time, the proposed method utilizes all markers across the genome simultaneously. The outperformance of our Bayesian method over the traditional single-marker analysis and interval mapping has been illustrated via simulations and real data analysis to identify candidate loci associated with colorectal cancer.     

Bayesian Inference on Proportional Elections

Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.     

The Quetzal Coalescence template library: A C++ programmers resource for integrating distributional,demographic and coalescent models

Genetic samples can be used to understand and predict the behaviour of species living in a fragmented and temporally changing environment. In this regard, models of coalescence conditioned to an environment through an explicit modelling of population growth and migration have been developed in recent years, and simulators implementing these models have been developed, enabling biologists to estimate parameters of interest with Approximate Bayesian Computation techniques. However, model choice remains limited, and developing new coalescence simulators is extremely time consuming because code re‐use is limited. We present Quetzal, a C++ library composed of re‐usable components, which is sufficiently general to efficiently implement a wide range of spatially explicit coalescence‐based environmental models of population genetics and to embed the simulation in an Approximate Bayesian Computation framework. Quetzal is not a simulation program, but a toolbox for programming simulators aimed at the community of scientific coders and research software engineers in molecular ecology and phylogeography. This new code resource is open‐source and available at https://becheler.github.io/pages/quetzal.html along with other documentation resources.     

Uncertainty and ignored information in the analysis of bat ultrasound: Bayesian approximation to the rescue

Bat ultrasound analysis has been around for several decades and it is one of the most important tools in studies of bat ecology. Discrimination between species is based on intra-specific features of echolocation calls. Identification of species and genera in audio files can be attempted either manually or through software which performs a fully automated discrimination between species. However, significant overlap in various features (e.g. frequencies of calls) exists between species and even genera. Species ID is therefore often not an absolute conclusion, but rather an opinion or best guess, as opposed to DNA tests or measurements on external characters of captured bats. To make things even worse, the probability of actually observing a bat of a given species in space and time is ignored when performing bat ultrasound analysis. This study introduces Bayesian approximation through a new method we have named Alternative Bayesian Bat Analysis (ABBA). We show, through a simple proof-of-concept example, the importance of adding information about the local composition of the bat community, hence making informed decisions regarding which species is most likely present in audio files. The superior performance of ABBA is also shown through an example using R code. Here, we use simulated data for three Pipistrellus spp., a genus with significant overlap in frequencies, but the code can easily be adapted to other bat species and genera worldwide. ABBA outperformed the non-Bayesian approach for all three species. The rare species in the simulated data set was super-inflated when using the non-Bayesian method. Further the results show, contrarily to common belief, that the frequency dominated by a given species in a data set, depends on the composition of the bat fauna and not just means and SDs reported in the literature. ABBA allows researchers to include all observations in statistical modeling, rather than excluding observations, an approach which can affect the reliability of studies. This study also, to a great extent, explains the poor performance of software attempting automated bat ID. Implementing Bayesian algorithms, and thereby allowing users to interact with the software, should significantly improve their performance.     

Projecting the future burden of cancer: Bayesian age–period–cohort analysis with integrated nested Laplace approximations

The projection of age‐stratified cancer incidence and mortality rates is of great interest due to demographic changes, but also therapeutical and diagnostic developments. Bayesian age–period–cohort (APC) models are well suited for the analysis of such data, but are not yet used in routine practice of epidemiologists. Reasons may include that Bayesian APC models have been criticized to produce too wide prediction intervals. Furthermore, the fitting of Bayesian APC models is usually done using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which introduces complex convergence concerns and may be subject to additional technical problems. In this paper we address both concerns, developing efficient MCMC‐free software for routine use in epidemiological applications. We apply Bayesian APC models to annual lung cancer data for females in five different countries, previously analyzed in the literature. To assess the predictive quality, we omit the observations from the last 10 years and compare the projections with the actual observed data based on the absolute error and the continuous ranked probability score. Further, we assess calibration of the one‐step‐ahead predictive distributions. In our application, the probabilistic forecasts obtained by the Bayesian APC model are well calibrated and not too wide. A comparison to projections obtained by a generalized Lee–Carter model is also given. The methodology is implemented in the user‐friendly R‐package BAPC using integrated nested Laplace approximations.     

Empirical Bayes Methods Enable Advanced Population-Level Analyses of Single-Molecule FRET Experiments

Many single-molecule experiments aim to characterize biomolecular processes in terms of kinetic models that specify the rates of transition between conformational states of the biomolecule. Estimation of these rates often requires analysis of a population of molecules, in which the conformational trajectory of each molecule is represented by a noisy, time-dependent signal trajectory. Although hidden Markov models (HMMs) may be used to infer the conformational trajectories of individual molecules, estimating a consensus kinetic model from the population of inferred conformational trajectories remains a statistically difficult task, as inferred parameters vary widely within a population. Here, we demonstrate how a recently developed empirical Bayesian method for HMMs can be extended to enable a more automated and statistically principled approach to two widely occurring tasks in the analysis of single-molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer (smFRET) experiments: 1), the characterization of changes in rates across a series of experiments performed under variable conditions; and 2), the detection of degenerate states that exhibit the same FRET efficiency but differ in their rates of transition. We apply this newly developed methodology to two studies of the bacterial ribosome, each exemplary of one of these two analysis tasks. We conclude with a discussion of model-selection techniques for determination of the appropriate number of conformational states. The code used to perform this analysis and a basic graphical user interface front end are available as open source software.     

Bayesian Partitioning for Modeling and Mapping Spatial Case–Control Data

Summary Methods for modeling and mapping spatial variation in disease risk continue to motivate much research. In particular, spatial analyses provide a useful tool for exploring geographical heterogeneity in health outcomes, and consequently can yield clues as to disease etiology, direct public health management, and generate research hypotheses. This article presents a Bayesian partitioning approach for the analysis of individual level geo‐referenced health data. The model makes few assumptions about the underlying form of the risk surface, is data adaptive, and allows for the inclusion of known determinants of disease. The methodology is used to model spatial variation in neonatal mortality in Porto Alegre, Brazil.     

Empirical Bayes Methods Enable Advanced Population-Level Analyses of Single-Molecule FRET Experiments

Many single-molecule experiments aim to characterize biomolecular processes in terms of kinetic models that specify the rates of transition between conformational states of the biomolecule. Estimation of these rates often requires analysis of a population of molecules, in which the conformational trajectory of each molecule is represented by a noisy, time-dependent signal trajectory. Although hidden Markov models (HMMs) may be used to infer the conformational trajectories of individual molecules, estimating a consensus kinetic model from the population of inferred conformational trajectories remains a statistically difficult task, as inferred parameters vary widely within a population. Here, we demonstrate how a recently developed empirical Bayesian method for HMMs can be extended to enable a more automated and statistically principled approach to two widely occurring tasks in the analysis of single-molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer (smFRET) experiments: 1), the characterization of changes in rates across a series of experiments performed under variable conditions; and 2), the detection of degenerate states that exhibit the same FRET efficiency but differ in their rates of transition. We apply this newly developed methodology to two studies of the bacterial ribosome, each exemplary of one of these two analysis tasks. We conclude with a discussion of model-selection techniques for determination of the appropriate number of conformational states. The code used to perform this analysis and a basic graphical user interface front end are available as open source software.     

Bayesian partitioning for estimating disease risk

This paper presents a Bayesian nonlinear approach for the analysis of spatial count data. It extends the Bayesian partition methodology of Holmes, Denison, and Mallick (1999, Bayesian partitioning for classification and regression, Technical Report, Imperial College, London) to handle data that involve counts. A demonstration involving incidence rates of leukemia in New York state is used to highlight the methodology. The model allows us to make probability statements on the incidence rates around point sources without making any parametric assumptions about the nature of the influence between the sources and the surrounding location.     

MASQOT-GUI: spot quality assessment for the two-channel microarray platform

MASQOT-GUI provides an open-source, platform-independent software pipeline for two-channel microarray spot quality control. This includes gridding, segmentation, quantification, quality assessment and data visualization. It hosts a set of independent applications, with interactions between the tools as well as import and export support for external software. The implementation of automated multivariate quality control assessment, which is a unique feature of MASQOT-GUI, is based on the previously documented and evaluated MASQOT methodology. Further abilities of the application are outlined and illustrated. AVAILABILITY: MASQOT-GUI is Java-based and licensed under the GNU LGPL. Source code and installation files are available for download at http://masqot-gui.sourceforge.net/     

Multitrait Bayesian shrinkage and variable selection models with the BGLR-R package

The BGLR-R package implements various types of single-trait shrinkage/variable selection Bayesian regressions. The package was first released in 2014, since then it has become a software very often used in genomic studies. We recently develop functionality for multitrait models. The implementation allows users to include an arbitrary number of random-effects terms. For each set of predictors, users can choose diffuse, Gaussian, and Gaussian–spike–slab multivariate priors. Unlike other software packages for multitrait genomic regressions, BGLR offers many specifications for (co)variance parameters (unstructured, diagonal, factor analytic, and recursive). Samples from the posterior distribution of the models implemented in the multitrait function are generated using a Gibbs sampler, which is implemented by combining code written in the R and C programming languages. In this article, we provide an overview of the models and methods implemented BGLR’s multitrait function, present examples that illustrate the use of the package, and benchmark the performance of the software.     

Bayesian Modeling of Joint Regressions for the Mean and Covariance Matrix

An important problem in agronomy is the study of longitudinal data on the growth curve of the weight of cattle through time, possibly taking into account the effect of other explanatory variables such as treatments and time. In this paper, a Bayesian approach for analysing longitudinal data is proposed. It takes into account regression structures on the mean and the variance‐covariance matrix of normal observations. The approach is based on the modeling strategy suggested by Pourahmadi (1999, Biometrika 86, 667–690). After revising this methodology, we present the Bayesian approach used to fit the models, based on a generalization of the Metropolis‐Hastings algorithm of Cepeda and Gamerman (2000, Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, 14 , 207–221). The approach is used to the study of growth and development of a group of deaf children. The paper is concluded with a few proposed extensions. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)