A new method for handling missing species in diversification analysis applicable to randomly or nonrandomly sampled phylogenies

Chronograms from molecular dating are increasingly being used to infer rates of diversification and their change over time. A major limitation in such analyses is incomplete species sampling that moreover is usually nonrandom. While the widely used γ statistic with the Monte Carlo constant-rates test or the birth-death likelihood analysis with the δ AICrc test statistic are appropriate for comparing the fit of different diversification models in phylogenies with random species sampling, no objective automated method has been developed for fitting diversification models to nonrandomly sampled phylogenies. Here, we introduce a novel approach, CorSiM, which involves simulating missing splits under a constant rate birth-death model and allows the user to specify whether species sampling in the phylogeny being analyzed is random or nonrandom. The completed trees can be used in subsequent model-fitting analyses. This is fundamentally different from previous diversification rate estimation methods, which were based on null distributions derived from the incomplete trees. CorSiM is automated in an R package and can easily be applied to large data sets. We illustrate the approach in two Araceae clades, one with a random species sampling of 52% and one with a nonrandom sampling of 55%. In the latter clade, the CorSiM approach detects and quantifies an increase in diversification rate, whereas classic approaches prefer a constant rate model; in the former clade, results do not differ among methods (as indeed expected since the classic approaches are valid only for randomly sampled phylogenies). The CorSiM method greatly reduces the type I error in diversification analysis, but type II error remains a methodological problem.     

Rapid cladogenesis in marine fishes revisited

Lineages that underwent rapid cladogenesis are attractive systems for the study of mechanisms underlying taxonomic, ecological, morphological, and behavioral diversification. Recently developed statistical methods provide insights into historical patterns of diversity and allow distinguishing bursts of cladogenesis from stochastic background rates in the presence of confounding factors such as extinction and incomplete taxon sampling. Here, we compare the dynamics of speciation in several marine fish lineages some of which were previously proposed to have undergone significant changes of cladogenesis through time. We tested for evidence of episodes of rapid cladogenesis using the constant rate and Monte Carlo constant rate tests that are robust to incomplete taxon sampling. These tests employ the statistic gamma to measure the relative position of internal node in a chronogram. For the first time, we conducted a comparative analysis to address the behavior of the statistic under different chronogram-constructing methods (Langley-Fitch, nonparametric rate smoothing, and penalized likelihood). Although estimates of gamma sometimes differ widely among methods, acceptance or rejection of the constant rate model within a particular clade appears to be robust to the choice of method. Bursts of cladogenesis were detected in 14 of 34 studied datasets. Some of these were previously proposed to represent marine fish "radiations," whereas others are identified anew. Our results indicate that the wider application of tree shape methods that are able to detect significantly elevated rates of speciation is useful to more precisely define clades that underwent episodes of rapid cladogenesis in marine fish clades. Contrasting the patterns of phylogenetic diversification in marine fish lineages may facilitate the identification of common evolutionary trajectories versus idiosyncrasies, and ultimately help towards a better understanding of the factors and processes underlying speciation in the marine realm.     

Into and out of the tropics: global diversification patterns in a hyperdiverse clade of ectomycorrhizal fungi

Ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi, symbiotic mutualists of many dominant tree and shrub species, exhibit a biogeographic pattern counter to the established latitudinal diversity gradient of most macroflora and fauna. However, an evolutionary basis for this pattern has not been explicitly tested in a diverse lineage. In this study, we reconstructed a mega‐phylogeny of a cosmopolitan and hyperdiverse genus of ECM fungi, Russula, sampling from annotated collections and utilizing publically available sequences deposited in GenBank. Metadata from molecular operational taxonomic unit cluster sets were examined to infer the distribution and plant association of the genus. This allowed us to test for differences in patterns of diversification between tropical and extratropical taxa, as well as how their associations with different plant lineages may be a driver of diversification. Results show that Russula is most species‐rich at temperate latitudes and ancestral state reconstruction shows that the genus initially diversified in temperate areas. Migration into and out of the tropics characterizes the early evolution of the genus, and these transitions have been frequent since this time. We propose the ‘generalized diversification rate’ hypothesis to explain the reversed latitudinal diversity gradient pattern in Russula as we detect a higher net diversification rate in extratropical lineages. Patterns of diversification with plant associates support host switching and host expansion as driving diversification, with a higher diversification rate in lineages associated with Pinaceae and frequent transitions to association with angiosperms.     

Mating preferences, sexual selection and patterns of cladogenesis in ray-finned fishes

Evolutionary theory predicts that sexual selection may increase taxonomic diversity when emergent mating preferences result in reproductive isolation and therefore speciation. This theory has been invoked to explain patterns of diversity in ray-finned fishes (most notably in the cichlids), but the theory has not been tested comparatively in fish. Additionally, several other unrelated factors have been identified as promoters of cladogenesis, so it is unclear how important sexual selection might be in diversification. Using sister-clade analysis, I tested the relationship between the presence of sexually selected traits and taxonomic diversification in actinopterygiian fishes, a large clade that shows substantial diversity in mating preferences and related sexually selected traits. In all identified sister-families that differed with regard to the proportion of species manifesting sexually selected traits, sexual selection was correlated with increased diversification, and this association was significant across all sister clades (P=0.02). This suggests that sexual selection, when present, is a substantial driver of diversification in the ray-finned fishes, and lends further empirical support to the theoretical link between mating preferences and accelerated cladogenesis.     

Testing for ecological limitation of diversification: a case study using parasitic plants

Abstract Imbalances in phylogenetic diversity could be the result of variable diversification rates, differing limits on diversity, or a combination of the two. We propose an approach to distinguish between rates and limits as the primary cause of phylogenetic imbalance, using parasitic plants as a model. With sister-taxon comparisons, we show that parasitic plant lineages are typically much less diverse than their autotrophic sisters. We then use age estimates for taxa used in the sister-taxon comparisons to test for correlations between clade age and clade diversity. We find that parasitic plant diversity is not significantly correlated with the age of the lineage, whereas there is a strong positive correlation between the age and diversity of nonparasitic sister lineages. The Ericaceae sister pair Monotropoideae (parasitic) and Arbutoideae (autotrophic) is sufficiently well sampled at the species level to allow more parametric comparisons of diversification patterns. Model fitting for this group supports ecological limitation in Monotropoideae and unconstrained diversification in Arbutoideae. Thus, differences in diversity between parasitic plants and their autotrophic sisters might be caused by a combination of ecological limitation and exponential diversification. A combination of sister-taxon comparisons of diversity and age, coupled with model fitting of well-sampled phylogenies of focal taxa, provides a powerful test of likely causes of asymmetry in the diversity of lineages.     

Dealing with incomplete taxon sampling and diversification of a large clade of mushroom-forming fungi

The absence of an adequate fossil record can hinder understanding the process of diversification that underlies the evolutionary history of a given group. In such cases, investigators have used ultrametric trees derived from molecular data from extant taxa to gain insights into processes of speciation and extinction over time. Inadequate taxon sampling, however, impairs such inferences. In this study, we use simulations to investigate the effect of incomplete taxon sampling on the accumulation of lineages through time for a clade of mushroom-forming fungi, the Hebelomateae. To achieve complete taxon sampling, we use a new Bayesian approach that incorporates substitute lineages to estimate diversification rates. Unlike many studies of animals and plants, we find no evidence of a slowdown in speciation. This indicates the Hebelomateae has not undergone an adaptive radiation. Rather, these fungi have evolved under a relatively constant rate of diversification since their most recent common ancestor, which we date back to the Eocene. The estimated net diversification rate (0.08-0.19 spp./lineage/Ma) is comparable with that of many plants and animals. We suggest that continuous diversification in the Hebelomateae has been facilitated by climatic and vegetation changes throughout the Cenozoic. We also caution against modeling multiple genes as a single partition when performing phylogenetic dating analyses.     

Early evolutionary history of the flowering plant family Annonaceae: steady diversification and boreotropical geodispersal

Aim Rain forest‐restricted plant families show disjunct distributions between the three major tropical regions: South America, Africa and Asia. Explaining these disjunctions has become an important challenge in biogeography. The pantropical plant family Annonaceae is used to test hypotheses that might explain diversification and distribution patterns in tropical biota: the museum hypothesis (low extinction leading to steady accumulation of species); and dispersal between Africa and Asia via Indian rafting versus boreotropical geodispersal. Location Tropics and boreotropics. Methods Molecular age estimates were calculated using a Bayesian approach based on 83% generic sampling representing all major lineages within the family, seven chloroplast markers and two fossil calibrations. An analysis of diversification was carried out, which included lineage‐through‐time (LTT) plots and the calculation of diversification rates for genera and major clades. Ancestral areas were reconstructed using a maximum likelihood approach that implements the dispersal–extinction–cladogenesis model. Results The LTT plots indicated a constant overall rate of diversification with low extinction rates for the family during the first 80 Ma of its existence. The highest diversification rates were inferred for several young genera such as Desmopsis, Uvariopsis and Unonopsis. A boreotropical migration route was supported over Indian rafting as the best fitting hypothesis to explain present‐day distribution patterns within the family. Main conclusions Early diversification within Annonaceae fits the hypothesis of a museum model of tropical diversification, with an overall steady increase in lineages possibly due to low extinction rates. The present‐day distribution of species within the two largest clades of Annonaceae is the result of two contrasting biogeographic histories. The ‘long‐branch clade’ has been diversifying since the beginning of the Cenozoic and underwent numerous geodispersals via the boreotropics and several more recent long‐distance dispersal events. In contrast, the ‘short‐branch clade’ dispersed once into Asia via the boreotropics during the Early Miocene and further dispersal was limited.     

Host conservatism,geography, and elevation in the evolution of a Neotropical moth radiation

The origins of evolutionary radiations are often traced to the colonization of novel adaptive zones, including unoccupied habitats or unutilized resources. For herbivorous insects, the predominant mechanism of diversification is typically assumed to be a shift onto a novel lineage of host plants. However, other drivers of diversification are important in shaping evolutionary history, especially for groups residing in regions with complex geological histories. We evaluated the contributions of shifts in host plant clade, bioregion, and elevation to diversification in Eois (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), a hyper‐diverse genus of moths found throughout the Neotropics. Relationships among 107 taxa were reconstructed using one mitochondrial and two nuclear genes. In addition, we used a genotyping‐by‐sequencing approach to generate 4641 SNPs for 137 taxa. Both datasets yielded similar phylogenetic histories, with relationships structured by host plant clade, bioregion, and elevation. While diversification of basal lineages often coincided with host clade shifts, more recent speciation events were more typically associated with shifts across bioregions or elevational gradients. Overall, patterns of diversification in Eois are consistent with the perspective that shifts across multiple adaptive zones synergistically drive diversification in hyper‐diverse lineages.     

Diversification in the Mexican horned lizard Phrynosoma orbiculare across a dynamic landscape

The widespread montane Mexican horned lizard Phrynosoma orbiculare (Squamata: Phrynosomatidae) represents an ideal species to investigate the relative impacts of Neogene vicariance and Quaternary climate change on lineage diversification across the Mexican highlands. We used mitochondrial DNA to examine the maternal history of P. orbiculare and estimate the timing and tempo of lineage diversification. Based on our results, we inferred 11 geographically structured, well supported mitochondrial lineages within this species, suggesting P. orbiculare represents a species complex. Six divergences between lineages likely occurred during the Late Miocene and Pliocene, and four splits probably happened during the Pleistocene. Diversification rate appeared relatively constant through time. Spatial and temporal divergences between lineages of P. orbiculare and co-distributed taxa suggest that a distinct period of uplifting of the Transvolcanic Belt around 7.5-3 million years ago broadly impacted diversification in taxa associated with this mountain range. To the north, several river drainages acting as filter barriers differentially subdivided co-distributed highland taxa through time. Diversification patterns observed in P. orbiculare provide additional insight into the mechanisms that impacted differentiation of highland taxa across the complex Mexican highlands.     

Lineages,splits and divergence challenge whether the terms anagenesis and cladogenesis are necessary

Using the framework of evolutionary lineages to separate the process of evolution and classification of species, we observe that ‘anagenesis’ and ‘cladogenesis’ are unnecessary terms. The terms have changed significantly in meaning over time, and current usage is inconsistent and vague across many different disciplines. The most popular definition of cladogenesis is the splitting of evolutionary lineages (cessation of gene flow), whereas anagenesis is evolutionary change between splits. Cladogenesis (and lineage‐splitting) is also regularly made synonymous with speciation. This definition is misleading as lineage‐splitting is prolific during evolution and because palaeontological studies provide no direct estimate of gene flow. The terms also fail to incorporate speciation without being arbitrary or relative, and the focus upon lineage‐splitting ignores the importance of divergence, hybridization, extinction and informative value (i.e. what is helpful to describe as a taxon) for species classification. We conclude and demonstrate that evolution and species diversity can be considered with greater clarity using simpler, more transparent terms than anagenesis and cladogenesis. Describing evolution and taxonomic classification can be straightforward, and there is no need to ‘make words mean so many different things’.     

Numerical experiments with model monophyletic and paraphyletic taxa

The problem of how accurately paraphyletic taxa versus monophyletic (i.e., holophyletic) groups (clades) capture underlying species patterns of diversity and extinction is explored with Monte Carlo simulations. Phylogenies are modeled as stochastic trees. Paraphyletic taxa are defined in an arbitrary manner by randomly choosing progenitors and clustering all descendants not belonging to other taxa. These taxa are then examined to determine which are clades, and the remaining paraphyletic groups are dissected to discover monophyletic subgroups. Comparisons of diversity patterns and extinction rates between modeled taxa and lineages indicate that paraphyletic groups can adequately capture lineage information under a variety of conditions of diversification and mass extinction. This suggests that these groups constitute more than mere "taxonomic noise" in this context. But, strictly monophyletic groups perform somewhat better, especially with regard to mass extinctions. However, when low levels of paleontologic sampling are simulated, the veracity of clades deteriorates, especially with respect to diversity, and modeled paraphyletic taxa often capture more information about underlying lineages. Thus, for studies of diversity and taxic evolution in the fossil record, traditional paleontologic genera and families need not be rejected in favor of cladistically-defined taxa.     

Systematics and evolution of the Pan‐Alcidae (Aves,Charadriiformes)

Puffins, auks and their allies in the wing‐propelled diving seabird clade Pan‐Alcidae (Charadriiformes) have been proposed to be key pelagic indicators of faunal shifts in Northern Hemisphere oceans. However, most previous phylogenetic analyses of the clade have focused only on the 23 extant alcid species. Here we undertake a combined phylogenetic analysis of all previously published molecular sequence data (～ 12 kb) and morphological data (n = 353 characters) with dense species level sampling that also includes 28 extinct taxa. We present a new estimate of the patterns of diversification in the clade based on divergence time estimates that include a previously vetted set of twelve fossil calibrations. The resultant time trees are also used in the evaluation of previously hypothesized paleoclimatic drivers of pan‐alcid evolution. Our divergence dating results estimate the split of Alcidae from its sister taxon Stercorariidae during the late Eocene (～ 35 Ma), an evolutionary hypothesis for clade origination that agrees with the fossil record and that does not require the inference of extensive ghost lineages. The extant dovekie Alle alle is identified as the sole extant member of a clade including four extinct Miocene species. Furthermore, whereas an Uria + Alle clade has been previously recovered from molecular analyses, the extinct diversity of closely related Miocepphus species yields morphological support for this clade. Our results suggest that extant alcid diversity is a function of Miocene diversification and differential extinction at the Pliocene–Pleistocene boundary. The relative timing of the Middle Miocene climatic optimum and the Pliocene–Pleistocene climatic transition and major diversification and extinction events in Pan‐Alcidae, respectively, are consistent with a potential link between major paleoclimatic events and pan‐alcid cladogenesis.     

Age and historical biogeography of the pantropically distributed Spathelioideae (Rutaceae,Sapindales)

Aim The family Rutaceae (rue family) is the largest within the eudicot order Sapindales and is distributed mainly in the tropical and subtropical regions of both the New World and the Old World, with a few genera in temperate zones. The main objective of this study is to present molecular dating and biogeographical analyses of the subfamily Spathelioideae, the earliest branching clade (which includes eight extant genera), to interpret the temporal and spatial origins of this group, ascertaining possible vicariant patterns and dispersal routes and inferring diversification rates through time. Location Pantropics. Methods A dataset comprising a complete taxon sampling at generic level (83.3% at species level) of Spathelioideae was used for a Bayesian molecular dating analysis (beast ). Four fossil calibration points and an age constraint for Sapindales were applied. An ancestral area reconstruction analysis utilizing the dispersal–extinction–cladogenesis model and diversification rate analyses was conducted. Results Dating analyses indicate that Rutaceae and Spathelioideae are probably of Late Cretaceous origin, after which Spathelioideae split into a Neotropical and a Palaeotropical lineage. The Palaeotropical taxa have their origin inferred in Africa, with postulated dispersal events to the Mediterranean, the Canary Islands, Madagascar and Southeast Asia. The lineages within Spathelioideae evolved at a relatively constant diversification rate. However, abrupt changes in diversification rates are inferred from the beginning of the Miocene and during the Pliocene/Pleistocene. Main conclusions The geographical origin of Spathelioideae probably lies in Africa. The existence of a Neotropical lineage may be the result of a dispersal event at a time in the Late Cretaceous when South America and Africa were still quite close to each other (assuming that our age estimates are close to the actual ages), or by Gondwanan vicariance (assuming that our age estimates provide minimal ages only). Separation of land masses caused by sea level changes during the Pliocene and Pleistocene may have been triggers for speciation in the Caribbean genus Spathelia.     

Coral reefs as drivers of cladogenesis: expanding coral reefs, cryptic extinction events, and the development of biodiversity hotspots

Diversification rates within four conspicuous coral reef fish families (Labridae, Chaetodontidae, Pomacentridae and Apogonidae) were estimated using Bayesian inference. Lineage through time plots revealed a possible late Eocene/early Oligocene cryptic extinction event coinciding with the collapse of the ancestral Tethyan/Arabian hotspot. Rates of diversification analysis revealed elevated cladogenesis in all families in the Oligocene/Miocene. Throughout the Miocene, lineages with a high percentage of coral reef-associated taxa display significantly higher net diversification rates than expected. The development of a complex mosaic of reef habitats in the Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA) during the Oligocene/Miocene appears to have been a significant driver of cladogenesis. Patterns of diversification suggest that coral reefs acted as a refuge from high extinction, as reef taxa are able to sustain diversification at high extinction rates. The IAA appears to support both cladogenesis and survival in associated lineages, laying the foundation for the recent IAA marine biodiversity hotspot.     

A preliminary classification of evolutionary radiations

Rapid increases in taxonomic diversity are generally described as adaptive or evolutionary radiations. Such radiations differ widely in the rate and extent of morphologic innovation, taxonomic diversification and phylogenetic breadth, suggesting that several patterns, and likely processes, are involved. At least four distinct patterns of evolutionary radiation can be identified: novelty events, which generate new morphological complexity (altering the body plan of the group under consideration) but not necessarily with the associated production of many lower taxa; broad diversification events involving many independent lineages that undergo diversification, generate many new species and are driven by new ecological opportunities; economic radiations of a limited group of ecologically (but not necessarily phylogenetically) related clades exploiting a limited new ecologic opportunity; and adaptive radiations that may occur at any taxonomic level, but involve a rapid increase in diversity within a single clade, including “true”; adaptive radiations. Many events produce simple diversity increases with no corresponding increase in genetic/developmental/morphological/behavioral sophistication, but the most evolutionarily interesting events add new levels of complexity.     

Exceptional among-lineage variation in diversification rates during the radiation of Australia's most diverse vertebrate clade

The disparity in species richness among groups of organisms is one of the most pervasive features of life on earth. A number of studies have addressed this pattern across higher taxa (e.g. 'beetles'), but we know much less about the generality and causal basis of the variation in diversity within evolutionary radiations at lower taxonomic scales. Here, we address the causes of variation in species richness among major lineages of Australia's most diverse vertebrate radiation, a clade of at least 232 species of scincid lizards. We use new mitochondrial and nuclear intron DNA sequences to test the extent of diversification rate variation in this group. We present an improved likelihood-based method for estimating per-lineage diversification rates from combined phylogenetic and taxonomic (species richness) data, and use the method in a hypothesis-testing framework to localize diversification rate shifts on phylogenetic trees. We soundly reject homogeneity of diversification rates among members of this radiation, and find evidence for a dramatic rate increase in the common ancestor of the genera Ctenotus and Lerista. Our results suggest that the evolution of traits associated with climate tolerance may have had a role in shaping patterns of diversity in this group.     

Tightly congruent bursts of lineage and phenotypic diversification identified in a continental ant radiation

Adaptive diversification is thought to be shaped by ecological opportunity. A prediction of this ecological process of diversification is that it should result in congruent bursts of lineage and phenotypic diversification, but few studies have found this expected association. Here, we study the relationship between rates of lineage diversification and body size evolution in the turtle ants, a diverse Neotropical clade. Using a near complete, time‐calibrated phylogeny we investigated lineage diversification dynamics and body size disparity through model fitting analyses and estimation of per‐lineage rates of cladogenesis and phenotypic evolution. We identify an exceptionally high degree of congruence between the high rates of lineage and body size diversification in a young clade undergoing renewed diversification in the ecologically distinct Chacoan biogeographical region of South America. It is likely that the region presented turtle ants with novel ecological opportunity, which facilitated a nested burst of diversification and phenotypic evolution within the group. Our results provide a compelling quantitative example of tight congruence between rates of lineage and phenotypic diversification, meeting the key predicted pattern of adaptive diversification shaped by ecological opportunity.     

Large-scale patterns of diversification in the widespread legume genus Senna and the evolutionary role of extrafloral nectaries

Unraveling the diversification history of old, species-rich and widespread clades is difficult because of extinction, undersampling, and taxonomic uncertainty. In the context of these challenges, we investigated the timing and mode of lineage diversification in Senna (Leguminosae) to gain insights into the evolutionary role of extrafloral nectaries (EFNs). EFNs secrete nectar, attracting ants and forming ecologically important ant-plant mutualisms. In Senna, EFNs characterize one large clade (EFN clade), including 80% of its 350 species. Taxonomic accounts make Senna the largest caesalpinioid genus, but quantitative comparisons to other taxa require inferences about rates. Molecular dating analyses suggest that Senna originated in the early Eocene, and its major lineages appeared during early/mid Eocene to early Oligocene. EFNs evolved in the late Eocene, after the main radiation of ants. The EFN clade diversified faster, becoming significantly more species-rich than non-EFN clades. The shift in diversification rates associated with EFN evolution supports the hypothesis that EFNs represent a (relatively old) key innovation in Senna. EFNs may have promoted the colonization of new habitats appearing with the early uplift of the Andes. This would explain the distinctive geographic concentration of the EFN clade in South America.     

Diversification across biomes in a continental lizard radiation

Ecological opportunity is a powerful driver of evolutionary diversification, and predicts rapid lineage and phenotypic diversification following colonization of competitor‐free habitats. Alternatively, topographic or environmental heterogeneity could be key to generating and sustaining diversity. We explore these hypotheses in a widespread lineage of Australian lizards: the Gehyra variegata group. This clade occurs across two biomes: the Australian monsoonal tropics (AMT), where it overlaps a separate, larger bodied clade of Gehyra and is largely restricted to rocks; and in the larger Australian arid zone (AAZ) where it has no congeners and occupies trees and rocks. New phylogenomic data and coalescent analyses of AAZ taxa resolve lineages and their relationships and reveal high diversity in the western AAZ (Pilbara region). The AMT and AAZ radiations represent separate radiations with no difference in speciation rates. Most taxa occur on rocks, with small geographic ranges relative to widespread generalist taxa across the vast central AAZ. Rock‐dwelling and generalist taxa differ morphologically, but only the lineage‐poor central AAZ taxa have accelerated evolution. This accords with increasing evidence that lineage and morphological diversity are poorly correlated, and suggests environmental heterogeneity and refugial dynamics have been more important than ecological release in elevating lineage diversity.     

A Simple Method for Estimating Informative Node Age Priors for the Fossil Calibration of Molecular Divergence Time Analyses

Molecular divergence time analyses often rely on the age of fossil lineages to calibrate node age estimates. Most divergence time analyses are now performed in a Bayesian framework, where fossil calibrations are incorporated as parametric prior probabilities on node ages. It is widely accepted that an ideal parameterization of such node age prior probabilities should be based on a comprehensive analysis of the fossil record of the clade of interest, but there is currently no generally applicable approach for calculating such informative priors. We provide here a simple and easily implemented method that employs fossil data to estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade, which can be used to fit an informative parametric prior probability distribution on a node age. Specifically, our method uses the extant diversity and the stratigraphic distribution of fossil lineages confidently assigned to a clade to fit a branching model of lineage diversification. Conditioning this on a simple model of fossil preservation, we estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade. The likelihood surface of missing history can then be translated into a parametric prior probability distribution on the age of the clade of interest. We show that the method performs well with simulated fossil distribution data, but that the likelihood surface of missing history can at times be too complex for the distribution-fitting algorithm employed by our software tool. An empirical example of the application of our method is performed to estimate echinoid node ages. A simulation-based sensitivity analysis using the echinoid data set shows that node age prior distributions estimated under poor preservation rates are significantly less informative than those estimated under high preservation rates.