Thermokarst rates intensify due to climate change and forest fragmentation in an Alaskan boreal forest lowland

Lowland boreal forest ecosystems in Alaska are dominated by wetlands comprised of a complex mosaic of fens, collapse‐scar bogs, low shrub/scrub, and forests growing on elevated ice‐rich permafrost soils. Thermokarst has affected the lowlands of the Tanana Flats in central Alaska for centuries, as thawing permafrost collapses forests that transition to wetlands. Located within the discontinuous permafrost zone, this region has significantly warmed over the past half‐century, and much of these carbon‐rich permafrost soils are now within ~0.5 °C of thawing. Increased permafrost thaw in lowland boreal forests in response to warming may have consequences for the climate system. This study evaluates the trajectories and potential drivers of 60 years of forest change in a landscape subjected to permafrost thaw in unburned dominant forest types (paper birch and black spruce) associated with location on elevated permafrost plateau and across multiple time periods (1949, 1978, 1986, 1998, and 2009) using historical and contemporary aerial and satellite images for change detection. We developed (i) a deterministic statistical model to evaluate the potential climatic controls on forest change using gradient boosting and regression tree analysis, and (ii) a 30 × 30 m land cover map of the Tanana Flats to estimate the potential landscape‐level losses of forest area due to thermokarst from 1949 to 2009. Over the 60‐year period, we observed a nonlinear loss of birch forests and a relatively continuous gain of spruce forest associated with thermokarst and forest succession, while gradient boosting/regression tree models identify precipitation and forest fragmentation as the primary factors controlling birch and spruce forest change, respectively. Between 1950 and 2009, landscape‐level analysis estimates a transition of ~15 km² or ~7% of birch forests to wetlands, where the greatest change followed warm periods. This work highlights that the vulnerability and resilience of lowland ice‐rich permafrost ecosystems to climate changes depend on forest type.     

Effects of experimental warming of air,soil and permafrost on carbon balance in Alaskan tundra

The carbon (C) storage capacity of northern latitude ecosystems may diminish as warming air temperatures increase permafrost thaw and stimulate decomposition of previously frozen soil organic C. However, warming may also enhance plant growth so that photosynthetic carbon dioxide (CO₂) uptake may, in part, offset respiratory losses. To determine the effects of air and soil warming on CO₂ exchange in tundra, we established an ecosystem warming experiment – the Carbon in Permafrost Experimental Heating Research (CiPEHR) project – in the northern foothills of the Alaska Range in Interior Alaska. We used snow fences coupled with spring snow removal to increase deep soil temperatures and thaw depth (winter warming) and open‐top chambers to increase growing season air temperatures (summer warming). Winter warming increased soil temperature (integrated 5–40 cm depth) by 1.5 °C, which resulted in a 10% increase in growing season thaw depth. Surprisingly, the additional 2 kg of thawed soil C m^?2 in the winter warming plots did not result in significant changes in cumulative growing season respiration, which may have been inhibited by soil saturation at the base of the active layer. In contrast to the limited effects on growing‐season C dynamics, winter warming caused drastic changes in winter respiration and altered the annual C balance of this ecosystem by doubling the net loss of CO₂ to the atmosphere. While most changes to the abiotic environment at CiPEHR were driven by winter warming, summer warming effects on plant and soil processes resulted in 20% increases in both gross primary productivity and growing season ecosystem respiration and significantly altered the age and sources of CO₂ respired from this ecosystem. These results demonstrate the vulnerability of organic C stored in near surface permafrost to increasing temperatures and the strong potential for warming tundra to serve as a positive feedback to global climate change.     

秦岭山地植被净初级生产力及对气候变化的响应

基于1999~2009年的NDVI数据和气象数据,利用CASA模型对秦岭山地植被净初级生产力（Net primary productivity,NPP）进行模拟估算,并分析了秦岭NPP的时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明：1999~2009年11年间秦岭山地的平均年NPP为542.24 gC·m^-2·a^-1;研究期内秦岭NPP呈显著增长趋势（P<0.01）,2008年最高（718.77 gC·m^-2·a^-1）,2001年最低（471.78 gC·m^-2·a^-1）;四季对全年NPP的贡献率大小依次为夏季（49.90%）>春季（26.16%）>秋季（18.87%）>冬季（5.07%）;月NPP与温度和降水都显著相关,但与温度的相关性更高,月水平上温度对NPP的影响比降水大;生长季期间NPP与温度和降水的相关性在空间分布上都以正相关为主。     

Circumpolar arctic tundra biomass and productivity dynamics in response to projected climate change and herbivory

Satellite remote sensing data have indicated a general ‘greening’ trend in the arctic tundra biome. However, the observed changes based on remote sensing are the result of multiple environmental drivers, and the effects of individual controls such as warming, herbivory, and other disturbances on changes in vegetation biomass, community structure, and ecosystem function remain unclear. We apply ArcVeg, an arctic tundra vegetation dynamics model, to estimate potential changes in vegetation biomass and net primary production (NPP) at the plant community and functional type levels. ArcVeg is driven by soil nitrogen output from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, existing densities of Rangifer populations, and projected summer temperature changes by the NCAR CCSM4.0 general circulation model across the Arctic. We quantified the changes in aboveground biomass and NPP resulting from (i) observed herbivory only; (ii) projected climate change only; and (iii) coupled effects of projected climate change and herbivory. We evaluated model outputs of the absolute and relative differences in biomass and NPP by country, bioclimate subzone, and floristic province. Estimated potential biomass increases resulting from temperature increase only are approximately 5% greater than the biomass modeled due to coupled warming and herbivory. Such potential increases are greater in areas currently occupied by large or dense Rangifer herds such as the Nenets‐occupied regions in Russia (27% greater vegetation increase without herbivores). In addition, herbivory modulates shifts in plant community structure caused by warming. Plant functional types such as shrubs and mosses were affected to a greater degree than other functional types by either warming or herbivory or coupled effects of the two.     

The response of Arctic vegetation and soils following an unusually severe tundra fire

Fire causes dramatic short-term changes in vegetation and ecosystem function, and may promote rapid vegetation change by creating recruitment opportunities. Climate warming likely will increase the frequency of wildfire in the Arctic, where it is not common now. In 2007, the unusually severe Anaktuvuk River fire burned 1039 km² of tundra on Alaska''s North Slope. Four years later, we harvested plant biomass and soils across a gradient of burn severity, to assess recovery. In burned areas, above-ground net primary productivity of vascular plants equalled that in unburned areas, though total live biomass was less. Graminoid biomass had recovered to unburned levels, but shrubs had not. Virtually all vascular plant biomass had resprouted from surviving underground parts; no non-native species were seen. However, bryophytes were mostly disturbance-adapted species, and non-vascular biomass had recovered less than vascular plant biomass. Soil nitrogen availability did not differ between burned and unburned sites. Graminoids showed allocation changes consistent with nitrogen stress. These patterns are similar to those seen following other, smaller tundra fires. Soil nitrogen limitation and the persistence of resprouters will likely lead to recovery of mixed shrub–sedge tussock tundra, unless permafrost thaws, as climate warms, more extensively than has yet occurred.     

气候变化情景下中国自然植被净初级生产力分布

基于国际上较通用的Lund-Potsdam-Jena(LPJ)模型,根据中国自然环境特点对其运行机制进行调整,并重新进行了参数化,以B2情景气候数据作为主要的输入数据,以1961-1990年为基准时段,模拟了中国1991-2080自然植被净初级生产力(NPP)对气候变化的响应.结果表明:1961-1990年,中国自然植被的NPP总量为3.06 Pg C·a-1;1961-2080年,NPP总量呈波动下降趋势,且下降速度逐渐加快.在降水相对变化不大的条件下,平均温度的增加对我国植被生产力可能会产生一定的负面影响.NPP的空间分布从东南沿海向西北内陆呈逐渐递减趋势,在气候变化过程中,该格局基本没有太大变化.在东部NPP值相对较高地区,NPP值以减少为主,东北地区、华北东部和黄土高原地区的减少趋势尤为明显;在西部NPP值相对较低地区,NPP以增加趋势为主,青藏高原地区和塔里木盆地的表现尤为突出.随着气候变化的深入,东西部地区这种变化趋势的对比将越发明显.     

1996-2015年滇西北香格里拉植被净初级生产力变化

地处青藏高原东南缘的滇西北香格里拉,其植被NPP的时空格局变化,对于深入了解青藏高原区域植被对气候变化的响应具有重要的科学意义。基于地面气象数据和MODIS-NDVI等遥感数据,运用改进的CASA模型,估算了1996—2015年香格里拉区域不同植被类型NPP,分析探讨了区域植被NPP的演变特征及其对气候变化的响应规律。研究显示:1)1995—2015年间,香格里拉区域6—8月平均气温总体呈上升趋势,增速为0.037℃/a; 6—8月总降水量为373.1 mm,呈微弱下降趋势;20年间辐射量基本维持波动稳定状态;2)1996—2015年,香格里拉区域6—8月最大月植被NPP平均值为176.9 gC/m~2,不同植被类型的变化范围为128.9—286.9 gC/m~2;空间格局上,表现为"从西北、东南及金沙江沿岸向中部递减"的特征;3)香格里拉区域植被NPP显著地受到气温变化的调控(P<0.05),20年间随着气温的持续升高,区域NPP总体呈增加趋势;4)区域植被NPP未表现出受降水变化的显著影响(P>0.05),水分条件对区域植被NPP未形成限制性的影响作用。区域内植被NPP...     

近51年来祁连山植被净初级生产力对气候变化的响应

本研究以分辨率为0.1°×0.1°的植被、土壤和气象数据为驱动,利用大气-植被相互作用模型(AVIM2)模拟了祁连山地区1958~2008年植被净初级生产力(NPP),并对近51年来祁连山地区植被NPP对气候变化的响应进行了分析。结果表明:近51年来祁连山植被(常绿针叶林、落叶针叶林、草地、灌木、农田)在气温升高和降水量增加的影响下,NPP总量呈增加趋势,且增加速率依次为:农田>常绿针叶林>落叶针叶林>草地>灌木。植被NPP的变化与气温和降水量的变化均呈正相关关系,且温度变化对植被NPP的影响大于降水,即温度变化是影响祁连山地区植被NPP变化的主导因素。从区域平均来看,气温年平均上升速率为0.043℃·a-1,降水量的平均增加速率为1.355mm·a-1,在气温和降水量的共同作用下,1958~2008年祁连山地区植被NPP总量呈增加趋势,平均增加速率为0.718g·m-2·a-1。     

辽东栎林净初级生产力对气候变化情景响应的模拟与分析

An ecosystem process model, BIOME-BGC, was used to explore the sensitivity of net primary productivity (NPP) of an oak (Quercus liaotungensis Koidz) forest ecosystem in Beijing area to global climate changes caused by increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Firstly we tested the model, and validated the modeled outputs using observational data; the outputs of BIOME-BGC model were consistent with observed soil water content and annual NPP. Secondly the potential impacts of climate change on the oak forest ecosystem were predicted with BIOME-BGC model. We found that the simulated NPP was much more sensitive to a 20% precipitation increase or a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ from 355 to 710 祄ol/mol than to a 2 ℃ temperature increase. Our results also indicated that the effects of elevated CO₂ and climate change on the response of NPP were not interactive.     

辽东栎林净初级生产力对气候变化情景响应的模拟与分析

利用生态系统模型BIOME-BGC模拟北京东灵山地区辽东栎(Suercus liaotungensis Koidz)林生态系统净初级生产力(net primary productivity,NPP)对全球气候变化潜在响应。首先,BIOME-BGC模型模拟的土壤含水量和NPP与该地区实际测量结果、其他模型模拟研究进行比较分析,结果显示BIOME-BGC能较好的模拟辽东栎林生态系统净生产力。然后,利用BIOME-BGC模拟辽东栎林生态系统NPP对不同气候变化的响应。结果表明:(1)NPP对温度变化不敏感,而对降水和CO_2变化极为敏感;(2)温度、降水和CO_2对NPP的影响并没有显示出交互作用。     

Changes in Biomass, Aboveground Net Primary Production, and Peat Accumulation following Permafrost Thaw in the Boreal Peatlands of Manitoba, Canada

Permafrost thaw resulting from climate warming may dramatically change the succession and carbon dynamics of northern ecosystems. To examine the joint effects of regional temperature and local species changes on peat accumulation following thaw, we studied peat accumulation across a regional gradient of mean annual temperature (MAT). We measured aboveground net primary production (AGNPP) and decomposition over 2 years for major functional groups and used these data to calculate a simple index of net annual aboveground peat accumulation. In addition, we collected cores from six adjacent frozen and thawed bog sites to document peat accumulation changes following thaw over the past 200 years. Aboveground biomass and decomposition were more strongly controlled by local succession than regional climate. AGNPP for some species differed between collapse scars and associated permafrost plateaus and was influenced by regional MAT. A few species, such as Picea mariana trees on frozen bogs and Sphagnum mosses in thawed bogs, sequestered a disproportionate amount of peat; in addition, changes in their abundance following thaw changed peat accumulation. ²¹⁰Pb-dated cores indicated that peat accumulation doubles following thaw and that the accumulation rate is affected by historical changes in species during succession. Peat accumulation in boreal peatlands following thaw was controlled by a complex mix of local vegetation changes, regional climate, and history. These results suggest that northern ecosystems may show responses more complex than large releases of carbon during transient warming. Received 8 August 2000; accepted 12 January 2001.     

秦巴山地NPP及对气候变化响应的多维地带性与暖温带-亚热带界线

秦巴山地位于我国的南北过渡带,对我国生态地理格局产生重要影响。为了探索秦巴山地植被净第一性生产力(NPP,Net Primary Productivity)的时空格局及其气候响应的多样性和复杂性,为我国暖温带-亚热带界线的具体分布提供新的佐证,基于2000—2015年的MOD17A3的地表植被NPP数据和秦巴山地93个气象站点数据,从经度、纬度、海拔、坡向多个维度研究了秦巴山地地表植被NPP的分布及与气候因子的关系。结果表明:从2000—2015年,(1)秦巴山地中低山地区,自北向南随纬度降低,地表植被多年平均NPP呈现增加的趋势,体现了纬度地带性;年均NPP与温度的关系由负相关变为正相关,转折点出现在汉江;与降水的相关性减弱。(2)自西向东多年平均NPP值先增加后减少,秦岭一线地表植被年均NPP与温度由正相关变为负相关,与降水主要呈正相关,相关性先增加后减少。(3)随高度的增加,秦巴山地多年NPP值及增长率均呈现先增加后减少的趋势。(4)秦岭和大巴山多年平均NPP均呈现增加趋势,但是秦岭增长较大巴山更明显;2000m以下,秦岭南坡增长率明显高于北坡,大巴山北坡增长率明显高于南坡;2000—3000m,秦岭南北坡差异较小,但是大巴山差异明显;中山地区(1000—2500m),秦岭年均NPP与气温呈负相关,而大巴山则呈现正相关或弱相关;秦岭地区年均NPP与降水的相关性整体强于大巴山地区。这就意味着全球变暖、气温升高对秦岭植被尤其是中低山地区的植被产生不利影响,但是对大巴山则有利,而前者植被生长主要与降水增加有关。这也说明了基于汉江为界的秦岭和大巴山无论是地表植被NPP的均值还是其南北坡差异以及对气候因子的响应呈现了明显的差异,而汉江作为中山地区植被NPP与气温相关性由正相关性到负相关的转折点,与降水的关系由弱相关到正相关的转折点,更合适作为南北分界线。     

Primary Productivity and Water Balance of Grassland Vegetation on Three Soils in a Continuous CO2 Gradient: Initial Results from the Lysimeter CO2 Gradient Experiment

Field studies of atmospheric CO₂ effects on ecosystems usually include few levels of CO₂ and a single soil type, making it difficult to ascertain the shape of responses to increasing CO₂ or to generalize across soil types. The Lysimeter CO₂ Gradient (LYCOG) chambers were constructed to maintain a linear gradient of atmospheric CO₂ (~250 to 500 μl l⁻¹) on grassland vegetation established on intact soil monoliths from three soil series. The chambers maintained a linear daytime CO₂ gradient from 263 μl l⁻¹ at the subambient end of the gradient to 502 μl l⁻¹ at the superambient end, as well as a linear nighttime CO₂ gradient. Temperature variation within the chambers affected aboveground biomass and evapotranspiration, but the effects of temperature were small compared to the expected effects of CO₂. Aboveground biomass on Austin soils was 40% less than on Bastrop and Houston soils. Biomass differences between soils resulted from variation in biomass of Sorghastrum nutans, Bouteloua curtipendula, Schizachyrium scoparium (C₄ grasses), and Solidago canadensis (C₃ forb), suggesting the CO₂ sensitivity of these species may differ among soils. Evapotranspiration did not differ among the soils, but the CO₂ sensitivity of leaf-level photosynthesis and water use efficiency in S. canadensis was greater on Houston and Bastrop than on Austin soils, whereas the CO₂ sensitivity of soil CO₂ efflux was greater on Bastrop soils than on Austin or Houston soils. The effects of soil type on CO₂ sensitivity may be smaller for some processes that are tightly coupled to microclimate. LYCOG is useful for discerning the effects of soil type on the CO₂ sensitivity of ecosystem function in grasslands. Author Contributions: PF conceived study, analyzed data, and wrote the paper. AK, AP analyzed data. DH, VJ, RJ, HJ, and WP conceived study, and conducted research.     

The sensitivity of soil respiration to soil temperature,moisture, and carbon supply at the global scale

Soil respiration (Rs) is a major pathway by which fixed carbon in the biosphere is returned to the atmosphere, yet there are limits to our ability to predict respiration rates using environmental drivers at the global scale. While temperature, moisture, carbon supply, and other site characteristics are known to regulate soil respiration rates at plot scales within certain biomes, quantitative frameworks for evaluating the relative importance of these factors across different biomes and at the global scale require tests of the relationships between field estimates and global climatic data. This study evaluates the factors driving Rs at the global scale by linking global datasets of soil moisture, soil temperature, primary productivity, and soil carbon estimates with observations of annual Rs from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB). We find that calibrating models with parabolic soil moisture functions can improve predictive power over similar models with asymptotic functions of mean annual precipitation. Soil temperature is comparable with previously reported air temperature observations used in predicting Rs and is the dominant driver of Rs in global models; however, within certain biomes soil moisture and soil carbon emerge as dominant predictors of Rs. We identify regions where typical temperature‐driven responses are further mediated by soil moisture, precipitation, and carbon supply and regions in which environmental controls on high Rs values are difficult to ascertain due to limited field data. Because soil moisture integrates temperature and precipitation dynamics, it can more directly constrain the heterotrophic component of Rs, but global‐scale models tend to smooth its spatial heterogeneity by aggregating factors that increase moisture variability within and across biomes. We compare statistical and mechanistic models that provide independent estimates of global Rs ranging from 83 to 108 Pg yr^?1, but also highlight regions of uncertainty where more observations are required or environmental controls are hard to constrain.     

Plant phenological responses to a long‐term experimental extension of growing season and soil warming in the tussock tundra of Alaska

Climate warming is strongly altering the timing of season initiation and season length in the Arctic. Phenological activities are among the most sensitive plant responses to climate change and have important effects at all levels within the ecosystem. We tested the effects of two experimental treatments, extended growing season via snow removal and extended growing season combined with soil warming, on plant phenology in tussock tundra in Alaska from 1995 through 2003. We specifically monitored the responses of eight species, representing four growth forms: (i) graminoids (Carex bigellowii and Eriophorum vaginatum); (ii) evergreen shrubs (Ledum palustre, Cassiope tetragona, and Vaccinium vitis‐idaea); (iii) deciduous shrubs (Betula nana and Salix pulchra); and (iv) forbs (Polygonum bistorta). Our study answered three questions: (i) Do experimental treatments affect the timing of leaf bud break, flowering, and leaf senescence? (ii) Are responses to treatments species‐specific and growth form‐specific? and (iii) Which environmental factors best predict timing of phenophases? Treatment significantly affected the timing of all three phenophases, although the two experimental treatments did not differ from each other. While phenological events began earlier in the experimental plots relative to the controls, duration of phenophases did not increase. The evergreen shrub, Cassiope tetragona, did not respond to either experimental treatment. While the other species did respond to experimental treatments, the total active period for these species did not increase relative to the control. Air temperature was consistently the best predictor of phenology. Our results imply that some evergreen shrubs (i.e., C. tetragona) will not capitalize on earlier favorable growing conditions, putting them at a competitive disadvantage relative to phenotypically plastic deciduous shrubs. Our findings also suggest that an early onset of the growing season as a result of decreased snow cover will not necessarily result in greater tundra productivity.     

1981～2000年中国陆地生态系统碳通量的年际变化

应用一个生物地球化学模型(CEVSA)估算了中国陆地净初级生产力 (NPP)、土壤异养呼吸(HR)和净生态系统生产力 (NEP) 在1981～1998年期间对气候和大气CO2浓度变化的动态响应.结果显示,全国NPP总量波动于2.89～3.37 Gt C/a之间,平均值为3.09 Gt C/a,年平均增长趋势约为0.32%.HR总量变化范围为2.89～3.21 Gt C/a,平均值为3.02 Gt C/a, 年均增长0.40%.NEP总量变动于 -0.32和0.25 Gt C/a之间,在统计上没有明显的年际变化趋势.在研究时段内,年平均NEP约为0.07 Gt C/a,表明中国陆地生态系统在气候与大气CO2浓度变化的条件下吸收了碳,为碳汇,总的吸收量为1.22 Gt C,约占全球碳吸收总量的10%,与同期内美国由大气CO2和气候变化所产生的碳吸收量大致相当.尽管由于较高的年际变率,NEP在统计上没有明显的变化趋势,但NPP的增长率低于HR的增长率,说明在研究时段内,中国陆地生态系统的吸碳能力由于气候变化降低了.全国大多数地区年平均NEP接近零,明显的NEP正值区(即碳汇)出现在东北平原、西藏东南部和黄淮平原等地区,而大小兴安岭、黄土高原和云贵高原等地区NEP为负值(即碳源).研究认为,1981～1998年期间中国气候温暖、干旱,因此估算的NEP可能低于其他时段.如果气候进入一个比较湿润的时期,碳吸收量可显著增加,但若当前干旱和暖化趋势以此为继,中国的NEP可能会变成一个负值.     

Productivity and water relations of burnt and long-unburnt semi-arid shrubland in Western Australia

This study provides a comparison between vegetation of relatively recent and long-unburnt shrubland in terms of structural and functional groups, annual net primary productivity and water relations. Adjacent areas of vegetation long-unburnt or burnt 5 years previously were compared within a remnant block of Acacia–Allocasuarina–Melaleuca arid shrubland at Kalannie, south west Western Australia. Species were classified according to growth and life form, fire response, phenology and rooting morphology and densities, mean plant above-ground dry weights and shoot:root dry mass ratios of each assessed. Species compositions, seedling densities and absence of recruitment in the long-unburnt area suggested marked dependence on fire in maintenance of biodiversity. Comparisons of above-ground standing dry biomass and annual net primary productivity of total (above-ground plus below-ground) dry matter showed the 4.09 kg m^–2 biomass of long-unburnt vegetation to be increasing at 0.52 kg m^–2 year^–1 versus 0.45 and 0.18 kg m^–2 year^–1 for vegetation of the burnt area. Water relations of soils indicated consistently wetter profiles in burnt than long-unburnt areas and no deep drainage during the year of study. Lower water stress of key species in burnt than long-unburnt areas were indicated by less negative pre-dawn water potentials and higher stomatal conductance during the year of study and more negative carbon-isotope composition (¹³C) in wood laid down over the past 5 years. Budgets for water use were estimated for both sites and compared with annual net primary productivities. Data suggested much greater transpiration loss per unit dry matter gain by the rapidly growing plants at the burnt site (437 ml H₂O g^–1 DM) than by the plants of the long-unburnt community (92 ml H₂O g^–1 DM). Results are discussed in relation to composition and functioning of other Western Australian ecosystems. It is clear that time since fire affects productivity and water-use of vegetation of semi-arid shrublands and is therefore an important consideration for management and protection of remnant vegetation.     

1981—2000年中国陆地生态系统碳通量的年际变化

应用一个生物地球化学模型(CEVSA)估算了中国陆地净初级生产力(NPP)、土壤异养呼吸(HR)和净生态系统生产力(NEP)在1981—1998年期间对气候和大气CO2浓度变化的动态响应。结果显示,全国NPP总量波动于2．89—3．37Gt／a之间,平均值为3．09Gt C／a,年平均增长趋势约为0．32％。HR总量变化范围为2．89—3．21Gt C／a,平均值为3．02Gt C／a,年均增长0．40％。NEP总量变动于-0．32和0．25Gt C／a之间,在统计上没有明显的年际变化趋势。在研究时段内,年平均NEP约为0．07Gt C／a,表明中国陆地生态系统在气候与大气CO2浓度变化的条件下吸收了碳,为碳汇,总的吸收量为1．22Gt C,约占全球碳吸收总量的10％,与同期内美国由大气CO2和气候变化所产生的碳吸收量大致相当。尽管由于较高的年际变率,NEP在统计上没有明显的变化趋势,但NPP的增长率低于HR的增长率,说明在研究时段内,中国陆地生态系统的吸碳能力由于气候变化降低了。全国大多数地区年平均NEP接近零,明显的NEP正值区(即碳汇)出现在东北平原、西藏东南部和黄淮平原等地区,而大小兴安岭、黄土高原和云贵高原等地区NEP为负值(即碳源)。研究认为,1981～1998年期间中国气候温暖、干旱,因此估算的NEP可能低于其他时段。如果气候进入一个比较湿润的时期,碳吸收量可显著增加,但若当前干旱和暖化趋势以此为继,中国的NEP可能会变成一个负值。