Performance of WSSV-infected and WSSV-negative Penaeus monodon postlarvae in culture ponds.

In a survey of 27 Penaeus monodon culture ponds stocked with postlarvae (approximately PL10) at medium density (approximately 40 shrimp m(-2)), single-step nested white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) PCR was used to measure the WSSV infection rates in the shrimp populations within 1 mo after stocking. Seven ponds were initially WSSV-free, and the shrimp in 5 of these were harvested successfully. In the ponds (n = 6) where detection rates were higher than 50%, mass mortality occurred during the growth period, and none of these ponds was harvested successfully. In a subsequent study, P. monodon brooders were classified into 3 groups according to their WSSV infection status before and after spawning: brooders that were WSSV-positive before spawning were assigned to group A; spawners that became WSSV-positive only after spawning were assigned to group B; and group C consisted of brooders that were still WSSV-negative after spawning. WSSV screening showed that 75, 44 and 14%, respectively, of group A, B and C brooders produced nauplii that were WSSV-positive. Most (57%; 16/28) of the brooders in group A produced nauplii in which the WSSV prevalence was high (>50%).When a pond was stocked with high-prevalence nauplii from 1 of these group A brooders, an outbreak of white spot syndrome occurred within 3 wk and only approximately 20% of the initial population survived through to harvest (after 174 d). By contrast, 2 other ponds stocked with low-prevalence and WSSV-negative nauplii (derived respectively from 2 brooders in group B), both had much higher survival rates (70 to 80%) and yielded much larger (approximately 3x by weight) total harvests. We conclude that testing the nauplii is an effective and practical screening strategy for commercially cultured P. monodon.     

Fatal,virus-associated peripheral neuropathy and retinopathy in farmed Penaeus monodon in eastern Australia. I. Pathology

Lesions are described in farmed Penaeus monodon affected with a previously unreported, fatal disease, 'peripheral neuropathy and retinopathy' (PNR). Outbreaks, associated with minor to heavy mortalities, occurred in 22 of 25 ponds on a farm in eastern Australia during the mid to late 1998/99 growout period. Moribund prawns, 5 to 26 g mean body weight, gathered at pond edges and were typically reddish in colour, lethargic, with mild to moderate epibiotic fouling and 1 or more partially amputated appendages. Histologically, there was mild to severe, focal to diffuse degeneration and necrosis of axons and their sheaths, together with associated glial cell apoptosis, in peripheral nerve fibres. Of the 3 appendage types examined systematically, these pathognomonic lesions were most common and severe in proximal antennal nerves and less common and severe in distal antennal nerves, antennular nerves and pereiopod nerves. Mild to severe, acute to chronic retinitis, associated with degeneration and necrosis of retinular cells and their axons, was also present in most clinically affected prawns. Transmission electron microscopy revealed moderate to large numbers of intracytoplasmic rod-shaped, helical nucleocapsids and enveloped virions, morphologically consistent with a yellow head-like virus, in putative glial cells in the antennal nerve, in the fasciculated zone of the eye and in putative sensory nerve cells of antennules. Immunohistochemical examination revealed lesions, but not histologically normal tissues, in peripheral nerves, eyes, lymphoid organ and vas deferens that consistently stained positively for a yellow head-related virus. The findings strongly suggest that a yellow head-related virus such as the Australian gill-associated virus (GAV) is causally associated with PNR. It is likely that PNR was not recognised during earlier investigations of mid-crop mortalities of farmed P. monodon in eastern Australia because appropriate peripheral nerves and eyes were not routinely examined histologically.     

Results from black tiger shrimp penaeus monodon culture ponds stocked with postlarvae PCR-positive or -negative for white-spot syndrome virus (WSSV).

Commercial, intensive, earthen shrimp ponds (188) in southern Thailand were stocked with postlarvae (PL) of Penaeus monodon that had tested positive or negative for white-spot syndrome virus (WSSV) infection by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay. All the PL were grossly healthy. At 2 wk intervals after stocking, shrimp from each pond were examined for gross WSSV lesions and tested for WSSV by PCR. Shrimp from all the ponds stocked with WSSV-PCR-positive PL (Group 0, n = 43) eventually showed gross signs of white-spot disease (WSD) at an average of 40 d after stocking. Of the remaining ponds stocked with WSSV-PCR-negative PL (n = 145), some remained WSSV-PCR-negative throughout the study (Group 5, n = 52), while others (93) became WSSV-PCR-positive after stocking, during the first month (Group 1, n = 23), second month (Group 2, n = 40), third month (Group 3, n = 24), or fourth month (Group 4, n = 6). Crop failure was defined as a pond drain or forced harvest before 14 wk or 98 d of cultivation. For Group 0 the proportion of ponds failing was 0.953, while it was only 0.019 for Group 5. Thus, the relative risk of failure for Group 0 was approximately 50 times that of Group 5. The relative risk of failure for Group 0 was also 3 times that for ponds stocked with WSSV-PCR-negative PL. Obviously, not all WSSV outbreaks resulted in crop failure. Of the 93 ponds stocked with PCR-negative PL that later yielded WSSV-PCR-positive shrimp, 53% reached successful harvest. The study showed that PCR screening of PL and rejection of WSSV-positive batches before stocking could greatly improve the chances of a successful harvest.     

Survival and Reproduction of Myxobolus cerebralis-Resistant Rainbow Trout Introduced to the Colorado River and Increased Resistance of Age-0 Progeny

Myxobolus cerebralis caused severe declines in rainbow trout populations across Colorado following its introduction in the 1980s. One promising approach for the recovery of Colorado’s rainbow trout populations has been the production of rainbow trout that are genetically resistant to the parasite. We introduced one of these resistant crosses, known as the GR×CRR (cross between the German Rainbow [GR] and Colorado River Rainbow [CRR] trout strains), to the upper Colorado River. The abundance, survival, and growth of the stocked GR×CRR population was examined to determine if GR×CRRs had contributed offspring to the age-0 population, and determine whether these offspring displayed increased resistance and survival characteristics compared to their wild CRR counterparts. Apparent survival of the introduced GR×CRR over the entire study period was estimated to be 0.007 (±0.001). Despite low survival of the GR×CRRs, age-0 progeny of the GR×CRR were encountered in years 2008 through 2011. Genetic assignments revealed a shift in the genetic composition of the rainbow trout fry population over time, with CRR fish comprising the entirety of the fry population in 2007, and GR-cross fish comprising nearly 80% of the fry population in 2011. A decrease in average infection severity (myxospores fish⁻¹) was observed concurrent with the shift in the genetic composition of the rainbow trout fry population, decreasing from an average of 47,708 (±8,950) myxospores fish⁻¹ in 2009 to 2,672 (±4,379) myxospores fish⁻¹ in 2011. Results from this experiment suggest that the GR×CRR can survive and reproduce in rivers with a high prevalence of M. cerebralis. In addition, reduced myxospore burdens in age-0 fish indicated that stocking this cross may ultimately lead to an overall reduction in infection prevalence and severity in the salmonid populations of the upper Colorado River.     

Stand‐replacing fires reduce susceptibility of lodgepole pine to mountain pine beetle outbreaks in Colorado

Aim As climate change is increasing the frequency, severity and extent of wildfire and bark beetle outbreaks, it is important to understand how these disturbances interact to affect ecological patterns and processes, including susceptibility to subsequent disturbances. Stand‐replacing fires and outbreaks of mountain pine beetle (MPB), Dendroctonus ponderosae, are both important disturbances in the lodgepole pine, Pinus contorta, forests of the Rocky Mountains. In the current study we investigated how time since the last stand‐replacing fire affects the susceptibility of the stand to MPB outbreaks in these forests. We hypothesized that at a stand‐scale, young post‐fire stands (< c. 100–150 years old) are less susceptible to past and current MPB outbreaks than are older stands. Location Colorado, USA. Methods We used dendroecological methods to reconstruct stand‐origin dates and the history of outbreaks in 23 lodgepole pine stands. Results The relatively narrow range of establishment dates among the oldest trees in most sampled stands suggested that these stands originated after stand‐replacing or partially stand‐replacing fires over the past three centuries. Stands were affected by MPB outbreaks in the 1940s/1950s, 1980s and 2000s/2010s. Susceptibility to outbreaks generally increased with stand age (i.e. time since the last stand‐replacing fire). However, this reduced susceptibility of younger post‐fire stands was most pronounced for the 1940s/1950s outbreak, less so for the 1980s outbreak, and did not hold true for the 2000s/2010s outbreak. Main conclusions Younger stands may not have been less susceptible to the most recent outbreak because: (1) after stands reach a threshold age of > 100–150 years, stand age does not affect susceptibility to outbreaks, or (2) the high intensity of the most recent outbreak reduces the importance of pre‐disturbance conditions for susceptibility to disturbance. If the warm and dry conditions that contribute to MPB outbreaks concurrently increase the frequency and/or extent of severe fires, they may thereby mitigate the otherwise increased landscape‐scale susceptibility to outbreaks. Potential increases in severe fires driven by warm and dry climatic trends may lead to a negative feedback by making lodgepole pine stands less susceptible to future MPB outbreaks.     

Aspects of the epizootiology of pancreas disease in farmed Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in Ireland.

A computerised database containing information on over 17.8 million salmon contained within 49 separate marine populations was used to study the epidemiology of pancreas disease (PD) in Ireland. Of the 43 recorded PD outbreaks, 57% occurred in the 3 mo period August to October inclusive (17 to 32 wk post-transfer). Analysis of variance of mortality rates during PD outbreaks occurring on 6 marine sites over a 5 yr period showed that mortality rates vary significantly between sites (p < 0.001) but not between years over this time period. The mortality rate during PD outbreaks ranged from 0.1 to 63%. Mortality rates were significantly higher when PD outbreaks occurred earlier in the year (y = -1.28x + 59, SE of b 0.33). The mean length of a PD outbreak was 112 d (SE = 7.7, n = 37). There was no correlation between PD mortality rate and smolt input weight, initial stocking density and transfer mortality.     

Prevalence and effect of spawner-isolated mortality virus on the hatchery phases of Penaeus monodon and P. merguiensis in Australia

Spawner-isolated mortality virus (SMV) has been associated with mortalities in broodstock of Penaeus monodon and with mid-crop mortality syndrome on grow-out farms. Epidemiological evidence suggested an association between the SMV status of broodstock and subsequent survival of their progeny, and this paper describes investigations into that association. The faeces of 909 broodstock in 9 different groups were tested by a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for SMV and positive results were confirmed by an internal dot-blot. Seventy-seven spawners (8.5%) were positive for SMV with prevalence ranging from 0 to 24% among groups. The prevalence in spawners of P. monodon was higher (24%) than in P. merguiensis (4%). Three longitudinal studies were undertaken to compare the survival of progeny from broodstock that were positive to SMV with those that were not. Survival in hatchery tanks of progeny from SMV-positive spawners was lower than those from SMV-negative spawners with reductions of 23% (p = 0.01), 7.3% (p = 0.214) and 18.9% (p = 0.129) in the 3 studies. The conclusions were less consistent when examined during each of the later stages of growth in hatchery pools, nursery and grow-out ponds, with progeny from SMV-postive spawners sometimes having better survival rates. However, survival was better overall in progeny from SMV-negative spawners. Simple linear regression showed survival was negatively related to the proportion of postlarvae from SMV-positive spawners, with a decrease in survival of 5.6% for each 10% increase in the proportion of postlarvae coming from SMV-positive spawners (p = 0.006). Data from 38 ponds showed 6.71% of losses were due to SMV. If these losses were consistent across the entire industry, the annual loss due to SMV would have been approximately AUD 3 million in 1999/2000.     

Epizootiology of an epizootic hemorrhagic disease outbreak in West Virginia

An outbreak of epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus, serotype 2 (EHDV-2) was responsible for localized white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) mortality in Hardy and Hampshire counties, West Virginia (USA), in the summer and fall of 1993. Using available historical data on regional herd immunity, data opportunistically collected during the epizootic, and postepizootic sampling of hunter-harvested deer, we grossly estimate certain epidemiologic parameters and compare findings to a hypothesis about hemorrhagic disease outbreaks in the Appalachian Mountains. During the epizootic, 57.9 km(2) were actively searched and 228 dead deer were found. Epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus, serotype 2 was isolated from seven of nine deer sampled in Hardy and Hampshire counties. Preepizootic exposure of deer to EHD viruses was unknown, but available data suggest that it was negligible. The geographic distribution of the outbreak was defined by plotting the locations of dead deer found during the outbreak, as well as the locations of deer harvested by hunters after the outbreak that had antibodies to EHDV-2 on a map sectioned into 16.65 km(2) rectangular sections. Sections that included one or more dead deer or hunter-harvested deer with antibodies to EHDV-2 were included in the defined outbreak area. Postoutbreak sampling revealed monospecific EHDV-2 antibodies in 12% of deer harvested by hunters within the defined outbreak area. Based on the available data and accepting certain assumptions, gross calculations suggest that this outbreak appears to have been isolated and probably killed a high percentage of the deer that were infected. This is consistent with the hypothesis that sporadic hemorrhagic disease outbreaks in the Appalachian Mountains are usually localized and severe.     

Detection of gill-associated virus (GAV) by in situ hybridization during acute and chronic infections of Penaeus monodon and P. esculentus

Chronic and acute gill-associated virus (GAV) infections were examined by in situ hybridization (ISH) using a DNA probe targeting a 779 nucleotide region of the ORF1b-gene. Chronic GAV infections were observed in healthy Penaeus monodon collected from farms and healthy P. esculentus surviving experimental infection. During chronic-phase infections in both species, GAV was detected only in partitioned foci of cells with hypertrophied nuclei (spheroids) within the lymphoid organ. Acute-phase infections were observed in moribund P. monodon and P. esculentus infected experimentally with a high dose of GAV, and in moribund P. monodon collected from farms during outbreaks of disease. During acute experimental infections in P. monodon, ISH detected GAV throughout the lymphoid organ, in gills and in connective tissues throughout the cephalothorax. In moribund P. monodon collected from natural outbreaks of disease, GAV was also detected in the gills and in connective tissues of the cephalothorax, but the distribution of virus within the lymphoid organ varied. In acutely infected P. esculentus, GAV was detected in connective tissues, but was restricted to the inner stromal matrix cells and endothelial cells of intact lymphoid organ tubules. The tissue distribution of GAV identified by ISH suggests that shrimp are able to control and maintain chronic asymptomatic infection by a process involving lymphoid organ spheroids. Acute phase infections and the development of disease appear to be dose-related and involve the systemic distribution of virus in connective tissues throughout the cephalothorax.     

The effect of biomanipulation of the zooplankton on the growth, feeding and survival of pikeperch (Stizostedion lucioperca) in nursing ponds

The following treatments were evaluated for use in rearing pikeperch larvae (Stizostedion lucioperca L.) in nursing ponds: treatment with Dipterex (Bayer); concurrent stocking with common carp (Cyprinus carpio L.); short flooding periods and prefeeding fish larvae. Treatment with Dipterex (active ingredient trichloorfon, i.e. 00-dimethyl-2,2,2, trichlorohydroxyethyl phosphonate) gave zooplankton populations dominated by rotatoria and nauplii at the onset of exogenous feeding and dominated by copepods later on. Cladocerans dominated the plankton in untreated ponds but were never prominent in treated ones. Stomach analysis revealed a fast changing feeding preference in pikeperch from nauplii and copepodites towards cladocerans and chironomids. The excellent food conditions for first feeding pikeperch larvae in Dipterex treated ponds resulted in a significant higher number of harvested fingerlings. In spite of the more favourable food conditions in untreated ponds during the second half of the culture period, a significant growth difference was not found. Concurrent carp stocking did not affect significantly the survival and growth of the pikeperch, although it decreased the accessability of chironomids for pikeperch. Short flooding periods and prefeeding pikeperch larvae failed as useful management strategies for pikeperch nursing. Pikeperch fingerlings cultured in ponds are larger than those found in natural populations at the same time, giving them a high chance to become piscivorous and to increase the year class strength when stocked in natural waters.     

Woodpecker nest survival,density, and a pine beetle outbreak

Mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks in western North American coniferous forests are increasing in size and severity. An understanding of wildlife population responses to pine beetle outbreaks is needed to inform habitat conservation strategies. We monitored 355 nests of 5 woodpecker species during 2 sampling periods, before (2003–2006) and after (2009–2014) the peak of a pine beetle outbreak in dry mixed conifer forest of Montana, USA. Three of 5 woodpecker species represented the beetle-foraging group: American three-toed (Picoides dorsalis), hairy (Dryobates villosus), and downy (D. pubescens) woodpeckers. The other 2 species studied were northern flicker (Colaptes auratus), a foraging and habitat generalist, and red-naped sapsucker (Sphyrapicus nuchalis), a sap forager and bark-gleaning insectivore. We analyzed daily survival rate of nests in relation to pine beetle outbreak (445,000 ha) severity and timing, along with covariates unrelated to the outbreak (temp, nest height, and nest tree diameter). Our results provided stronger evidence for relationships between woodpecker nest survival and the non-outbreak variables than those associated with outbreaks. Our results indicated limited support for nest survival relationships with beetle severity (annual and cumulative pine tree mortality at 0.81-ha and 314-ha scales). Nevertheless, we observed a significant increase in densities of hatched nests for beetle-foraging woodpeckers following the outbreak. Our results suggest that woodpeckers, particularly beetle foragers, respond numerically to pine beetle outbreaks through increased nesting densities more so than functionally via nest survival. © 2019 The Authors. Journal of Wildlife Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

Predicting outbreaks of a climate-driven coral disease in the Great Barrier Reef

Links between anomalously high sea temperatures and outbreaks of coral diseases known as White Syndromes (WS) represent a threat to Indo-Pacific reefs that is expected to escalate in a changing climate. Further advances in understanding disease aetiologies, determining the relative importance of potential risk factors for outbreaks and in trialing management actions are hampered by not knowing where or when outbreaks will occur. Here, we develop a tool to target research and monitoring of WS outbreaks in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The tool is based on an empirical regression model and takes the form of user-friendly interactive ~1.5-km resolution maps. The maps denote locations where long-term monitoring suggests that coral cover exceeds 26% and summer temperature stress (measured by a temperature metric termed the mean positive summer anomaly) is equal to or exceeds that experienced at sites in 2002 where the only severe WS outbreaks documented on the GBR to date were observed. No WS outbreaks were subsequently documented at 45 routinely surveyed sites from 2003 to 2008, and model hindcasts for this period indicate that outbreak likelihood was never high. In 2009, the model indicated that outbreak likelihood was high at north-central GBR sites. The results of the regression model and targeted surveys in 2009 revealed that the threshold host density for an outbreak decreases as thermal stress increases, suggesting that bleaching could be a more important precursor to WS outbreaks than previously anticipated, given that bleaching was severe at outbreak sites in 2002 but not at any of the surveyed sites in 2009. The iterative approach used here has led to an improved understanding of disease causation, will facilitate management responses and can be applied to other coral diseases and/or other regions.     

Climate factors associated with historic spruce beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) outbreaks in Utah and Colorado

This study investigated relationships between climate and historic spruce beetle, Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), outbreaks in northern and southeastern Utah and western Colorado between 1905 and 1996. A chronology of outbreak years was constructed from historic records, research papers, newspapers, and other sources of information. Historic climate data for the region included annual and mean monthly temperature and precipitation, in addition to Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) values estimated from tree rings. Classification and regression tree analysis (CART) was used to identify those climate factors most important for predicting historic spruce beetle outbreaks. The factors identified by the best CART model included mean December temperature, mean September temperature 1 yr before outbreak years, the mean estimated PDSI value of the 5-yr period before outbreak years, and mean October precipitation. The resulting model correctly classified nonoutbreak and outbreak years 67 and 70% of the time, respectively.     

Cascading life-history interactions: alternative density-dependent pathways drive recruitment dynamics in a freshwater fish

Although density-dependent mechanisms in early life-history are important regulators of recruitment in many taxa, consequences of such mechanisms on other life-history stages are poorly understood. To examine interacting and cascading effects of mechanisms acting on different life-history stages, we stocked experimental ponds with fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) at two different densities. We quantified growth and survival of the stocked fish, the eggs they produced, and the resulting offspring during their first season of life. Per-capita production and survival of eggs were inversely related to density of stocked fish; significant egg cannibalism by stocked minnows resulted in initial young-of-the-year (YOY) densities that were inversely related to adult densities. Subsequent growth and survival of YOY were then inversely related to these initial YOY densities, and survival of YOY was selective for larger fish. Because of these compensatory processes in the egg and YOY stages, treatments did not differ in YOY abundance and mean size at the end of the growing season. Because of differences in the intensity of size-selective mortality, however, variation in end-of season sizes of YOY was strongly (and inversely) related to densities of stocked fish. When mortality was severe in the egg stage (high densities of stocked fish), final YOY size distributions were more variable than when the dominant mortality was size-selective in the YOY stage (low stocked fish densities). These differences in size variation could have subsequent recruitment consequences, as overwinter survival is typically selective for YOY fish larger than a critical threshold size. Density-dependent effects on a given life stage are not independent, but will be influenced by earlier stages; alternative recruitment pathways can result when processes at earlier stages differ in magnitude or selectivity. Appreciation of these cascading effects should enhance our overall understanding of the dynamics of stage-structured populations.     

High variation in repetitive DNA fragment length for white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) isolates in Thailand

White spot syndrome virus (WSSV) presently causes the most serious losses to shrimp farmers worldwide. Earlier reports of high DNA sequence homology among isolates from widely separated geographical regions suggested that a single virus was the cause. However, we have found surprisingly high variation in the number of 54 bp DNA repeats in ORF94 (GenBank AF369029) from 55 shrimp ponds (65 shrimp samples) experiencing WSSV outbreaks in Thailand in 2000 and 2002. These were detected by PCR amplification using primers ORF94-F and ORF94-R flanking the repeat region. Altogether, 12 different repeat groups were found (from 6 to 20 repeats) with 8 repeats being most frequent (about 32%). Extracts prepared from individual shrimp in the same outbreak pond belonged to the same repeat group while those collected at the same time from separate WSSV outbreak ponds, or from the same ponds at different times, usually belonged to different repeat groups. This suggested that different outbreaks were caused by different WSSV isolates. In contrast to the highly variable numbers of repeats, sequence variation within the repeat region was confined to either T or G at Position 36. These variations may be useful for epidemiological studies on the local and global movement of WSSV, since there is high variation in the number of repeats (good for local studies) but little sequence change (good for global studies).     

Analysis of the growth performance,stress, profile of fatty acids and amino acids and cortisol in Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), cultured at high stocking density using in-pond raceway system

In-pond raceway system technology (IPRS) was introduced in Pakistan in 2019 as solution for sustainable aquaculture approach by effectively increasing production, reducing pollution and facilitating feed and pond management. Fingerlings of GIFT Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) (n = 16,500 in each raceway, initial weight = 32.00 ± 1.26 g) were stocked in June 2019 in two IPRS raceways (area of each raceway = 220 m³) for 171 days until harvested on November 30, 2019. Fingerlings stocked in traditional earthen ponds (area of each pond = 6167 m³) were studied as control (n = 3000 in each pond, initial weight = 32.00 ± 1.26 g). Average harvested biomass from raceways was 57.33 kg/m³ with an average daily weight gain per fish of 4.47 g per day. On the other hand, average harvested biomass from control ponds was 0.38 kg/m³ with an average daily weight gain per fish of 4.60 g per day. Average feed conversion ratio (FCR) in both raceways and control ponds was recorded as 1.25 and 1.24, respectively. Overall survival rate in both raceways and control ponds was above 99%. No sign of any disease was noted at any stage in both study groups. Crude protein and fats contents did not reduce in any raceway despite of high stocking density and sharp seasonal changes. Profile of essential and non-essential amino acids were found to be upto nutritional requirements of adult human. High levels of n-3 and n-6 fatty acids in fish collected from raceways as compared to those in traditional earthen pond show that muscle quality was not compromised due to high stocking density in small area. Return on investment excluding capital cost was 47.05 which implies that IPRS technology can be economically feasible with further modifications.     

Assessing the impact of preventive mass vaccination campaigns on yellow fever outbreaks in Africa: A population-level self-controlled case series study

BackgroundThe Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy was launched in 2017 in response to the resurgence of yellow fever in Africa and the Americas. The strategy relies on several vaccination activities, including preventive mass vaccination campaigns (PMVCs). However, to what extent PMVCs are associated with a decreased risk of outbreak has not yet been quantified.Methods and findingsWe used the self-controlled case series (SCCS) method to assess the association between the occurrence of yellow fever outbreaks and the implementation of PMVCs at the province level in the African endemic region. As all time-invariant confounders are implicitly controlled for in the SCCS method, this method is an alternative to classical cohort or case–control study designs when the risk of residual confounding is high, in particular confounding by indication. The locations and dates of outbreaks were identified from international epidemiological records, and information on PMVCs was provided by coordinators of vaccination activities and international funders. The study sample consisted of provinces that were both affected by an outbreak and targeted for a PMVC between 2005 and 2018. We compared the incidence of outbreaks before and after the implementation of a PMVC. The sensitivity of our estimates to a range of assumptions was explored, and the results of the SCCS method were compared to those obtained through a retrospective cohort study design. We further derived the number of yellow fever outbreaks that have been prevented by PMVCs. The study sample consisted of 33 provinces from 11 African countries. Among these, the first outbreak occurred during the pre-PMVC period in 26 (79%) provinces, and during the post-PMVC period in 7 (21%) provinces. At the province level, the post-PMVC period was associated with an 86% reduction (95% CI 66% to 94%, p < 0.001) in the risk of outbreak as compared to the pre-PMVC period. This negative association between exposure to PMVCs and outbreak was robustly observed across a range of sensitivity analyses, especially when using quantitative estimates of vaccination coverage as an alternative exposure measure, or when varying the observation period. In contrast, the results of the cohort-style analyses were highly sensitive to the choice of covariates included in the model. Based on the SCCS results, we estimated that PMVCs were associated with a 34% (95% CI 22% to 45%) reduction in the number of outbreaks in Africa from 2005 to 2018. A limitation of our study is the fact that it does not account for potential time-varying confounders, such as changing environmental drivers of yellow fever and possibly improved disease surveillance.ConclusionsIn this study, we provide new empirical evidence of the high preventive impact of PMVCs on yellow fever outbreaks. This study illustrates that the SCCS method can be advantageously applied at the population level in order to evaluate a public health intervention.

In this cohort study, Kévin Jean and colleagues correlate lower risk of disease outbreaks with mass vaccination against yellow fever.