Retrospective Estimate of the Individual History of Life in Population Studies on Mammals

Analysis of the recording structures in mammals, such as dentine, cementum, or bone tissue, makes it possible to estimate the parameters of individual history of life: age at the moment of death, seasons of death and birth, growth rate, age of sexual maturation, etc. Using the reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) as an example, it has been shown what specific life features essential for population studies may be estimated when only mandibles with teeth are available.     

Changes in Jewish mortality and survival, 1963–1987

Abstract

From information on mortality of Jews obtained from individual death certificates and population data from surveys of the Jewish population undertaken in 1963 and 1987, age‐specific death rates and life expectancy of the Jewish population of Rhode Island are compared with those of the total white population for 1963 and 1987 to assess changing differentials. The Jewish mortality experience continues to differ from that of the larger population even while both groups have experienced noticeable improvements. For males, the age standardized rates have widened in favor of Jews as have the life expectancies at birth and the percentage surviving to old age. By contrast, for females, the standardized death rate has widened considerably in favor of whites, while life expectancy has improved almost identically for both groups and therefore remained about equal, as it was in 1963. Reasons for these patterns are explored through attention to differences between Jews and the general white population in death rates at particular stages of the life cycle. Jews tend to be more advantaged at all but the most advanced ages, age groups in which proportionally more of the Jewish population and Jewish deaths are concentrated.     

海岱地区大汶口文化时期人口死亡年龄的统计分布特征

人口死亡年龄是揭示一个族群健康状况和社会经济条件的重要指标。本文根据海岱地区大汶口文化时期九个墓地人骨遗存的发掘报告,运用定量统计的方法检验了人口死亡年龄分布特征。发现该区大汶口文化时期人口的死亡年龄分布近似服从正态分布。最后探讨了造成人口低死亡年龄的可能原因,并给出了这一概率分布的数学意义以及在史前人口学中的应用前景。     

The ethics of life expectancy

Some ethical dilemmas in health care, such as over the use of age as a criterion of patient selection, appeal to the notion of life expectancy. However, some features of this concept have not been discussed. Here I look in turn at two aspects: one positive — our expectation of further life — and the other negative — the loss of potential life brought about by death. The most common method of determining this loss, by counting only the period of time between death and some particular age, implies that those who die at ages not far from that one are regarded as losing very little potential life, while those who die at greater ages are regarded as losing none at all. This approach has methodological advantages but ethical disadvantages, in that it fails to correspond to our strong belief that anyone who dies is losing some period of life that he or she would otherwise have had. The normative role of life expectancy expressed in the 'fair innings' attitude arises from a particular historical situation: not the increase of life expectancy in modern societies, but a related narrowing in the distribution of projected life spans. Since life expectancy is really a representation of existing patterns of mortality, which in turn are determined by many influences, including the present allocation of health resources, it should not be taken as a prediction, and still less as a statement of entitlement.     

Mathematical hazard models of mortality: an alternative to model life tables

A five-parameter competing hazard model of the age pattern of mortality is described, and methods of fitting it to survivorship, death rate, and age structure data are developed and presented. The methods are then applied to published life table and census data to construct life tables for a Late Woodland population, a Christian period Nubian population, and the Yanomama. The advantage of this approach over the use of model life tables is that the hazard model facilitates life-table construction without imposing a particular age pattern of mortality on the data. This development makes it possible to use anthropological data to extend the study of human variation in mortality patterns to small populations.     

Adequate conscious life and age-related need: F.M. Kamm's approach to patient selection

Kamm's approach to patient selection qualifies the notion that fairness makes need for scarce, transplantable organs inversely proportional to age. She defines need as how much adequate conscious life a person will have had before death. Length of adequate conscious life correlates highly with age. If so, then younger persons are usually needier than older ones. Since Kamm allows for past periods of non-adequate conscious life, I argue that this correlation may be neither as close, nor as easy to apply, as she wants it to be. Fairness should require assessment of experiential content in determining how long one's life has been adequately conscious. I argue that such assessments involve some of the goods of experience and quality of life judgements that Kamm thinks a reliance on adequate conscious life will avoid.     

T cell subset patterns that predict resistance to spontaneous lymphoma,mammary adenocarcinoma,and fibrosarcoma in mice

Aging leads to changes in the proportion of several T cell subsets in peripheral blood, but it is not yet known whether these changes have prognostic significance for late-life diseases. To examine this question, levels of T cell subsets were measured at 8 and 18 mo of age in the peripheral blood of mice of a genetically heterogeneous stock, and the mice were then subsequently evaluated for life span and for cause of death. The results indicate that mice whose T cell subset patterns look like those of old mice tend to die at earlier ages, regardless of the specific cause of death. At 18 mo, 39% of the variance within the set of seven measured subsets could be combined statistically into a single number, whose correlation with individual subsets suggested that it could be interpreted as an index of immunological aging. T cell subset pattern, as represented by this index, was a predictor of life span in mice dying of lymphoma, fibrosarcoma, mammary adenocarcinoma, or of all other causes considered together. Even as early as 8 mo of age, T cell subset patterns are significant predictors of all three forms of cancer, although at this age the association is stronger in mated female mice than in virgin mice. These results support two controversial hypotheses, which are not mutually exclusive: 1) early immune senescence might predispose to early death from cancer and 2) differences in aging rate, as monitored by tests of immune status, might accelerate or decelerate a wide range of late life neoplastic diseases.     

Age‐dependent investment in death‐feigning behaviour in the sweetpotato weevil Cylas formicarius

Because life‐history theory predicts that risky behaviours such as mating should increase as life expectancy decreases, predatory avoidance is expected to decrease with age. However, this prediction has not been examined. In the present study, the effect of age on death‐feigning behaviour, a form of predatory avoidance behaviour in the sweetpotato weevil Cylas formicarius (Summers) (Coleoptera: Brentidae), is investigated by performing a longitudinal study. Because the effects of mating history and age usually cannot be distinguished, mating history is controlled. The results show that only female weevils decrease the investment in death‐feigning behaviour with age, whereas male weevils do not show any age‐related change. In addition, death‐feigning behaviour of mated females is longer than that of virgin females, possibly because additional mating partners would be not needed by mated females.     

不同人为干扰条件下毒药树种群数量特征的比较

云南是毒药树(Sladenia celastrifolia)的分布中心,日益严重的人为干扰不可避免地影响毒药树种群的数量特征。基于毒药树年龄与胸径之间的关系,初步分析了受人为干扰程度不同的两个种群的年龄结构、静态生命表和存活曲线,并对这两个种群进行了比较。严重受干扰的种群的幼苗库相对不足,Ⅰ龄级个体数比例为12.7%,Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ龄级个体数所占比例为80.3%,种群衰退趋势明显;未受干扰的种群幼苗库相对充足,年龄结构呈现稳定种群的特征。这两个种群的生命表也存在差异,其中最明显的就是严重受干扰的种群的Ⅰ龄级和Ⅱ龄级的死亡率为负,这是幼苗库不足的一个直接反映。两个种群的存活曲线都表现出低龄级个体死亡率高的特征,但未受干扰的种群各龄级个体的死亡率的变化幅度较小。毒药树种群的各项特征与鹅掌楸(Liriodendron chinense)及其它几种濒危植物的相关特征相似。虽然毒药树还未被列为受威胁的物种,但它已具备IUCN所定义的受威胁物种的特点,因此,对它的保护已十分必要,除了在野外建立相应的毒药树保护点之外,在植物园中培植人工种群也是必须的。     

Relationship of income and childlessness

ABSTRACT

We investigated the impact of diabetes on US life expectancy by sex and race/ethnicity using a prospective cohort study design. Cohorts were drawn from 1997 to 2009 waves of the National Health Interview Survey and linked to death records through December 31, 2011. We combined data on the prevalence of diabetes among decedents with estimates of the hazard ratios of individuals diagnosed with diabetes to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs) by age, sex, and race/ethnicity at ages 30 and above. These estimates were then applied to deaths in the official US life table for 2010 to estimate effects of diabetes on life expectancy.

Diabetes was responsible for a reduction of 0.83 years of life expectancy for men at age 30 and 0.89 years for 30-year-old women. The impact was greatest among Black women at 1.05 years. Estimates based on traditional demographic and actuarial methods using the frequency with which a disease appears as an underlying cause of death on death certificates produced a reduction in life expectancy at age 30 of only 0.33 years.

We conclude that diabetes is substantially reducing US longevity and that its effect is seriously underestimated when using data on underlying causes of death.     

“区域模型生命表”在古人口学研究中的应用

作为普通生命表的归纳总结,"模型生命表"反映了人口发展的普遍现象和内在规律。本文将"区域模型生命表"引入古人口学研究,以大甸子墓地为例对婴幼儿组和高龄组死亡人数进行了调整。根据校正后数据所编制的简略生命表,该遗址人口平均预期寿命下降为24.12岁,年龄别死亡率曲线呈更加合理的"U"型。鉴于古人口学中样本容量和代表性往往较差,引入"区域模型生命表"对偏差数据校正后再进行人口研究将使所得结论更加合理可靠。     

Evolution of senescence: Natural increase of populations displaying gompertz- or power-law death rates and constant or age-dependent maternity rates

Several hypothetical populations which differ in degrees of senescence are compared with respect to their rates of natural increase. The rate of natural increase is employed as a measure of selective advantage. The populations are characterized by their maternity and death rates, expressed as functions of age. Maternity rates are described by constant or quasi-human, age-dependent functions. Death rates are described by constant, Gompertzian (exponential) or power functions. Longevity functions, representing the probability of survival to a specific age, are obtained by integrating the death rate functions. The degree of senescence of a population is measured by the rapidity of ascent of its death-rate function or by the rectangularity of its longevity function. The increase in death rate late in life which constitutes senescence is compensated by a decrease in death rate early in life. The balance between the two changes in rate is, by assumption, such that the mean value of the longevity function is independent of the degree of senescence. This assumption makes it possible to separate the effects produced by the evolution of senescence from those caused by changes in longevity.The rate of natural increase is obtained by numerical solution of an integral characteristic equation. The results show that senescence is advantageous in all populations except those in which the maternity function is constant and the size is declining at a rapid rate. When the parameters entering into the longevity functions have values such that the functions approximate human longevity data, the improvement in the rate of natural increase resulting from senescence closely approaches limiting values obtained with the use of a precisely rectangular longevity function. Other results support the observation that reproduction at an early age confers greater selective advantage than equivalent reproduction later in life.     

Decline of tuberculosis mortality in an urban Mexican‐origin population, 1935–1984

Abstract

Through a series of life table analyses, this paper describes the natural history of tuberculosis mortality in a Mexican‐origin community over five decades (1935–84) during which the disease underwent a transition from a major underlying cause of death to a disease conditioned mentioned more often on death certificates as contributing to death than causing death. The decline in death rates from 1940 to 1950 was especially remarkable. Successive birth cohorts of Mexican Americans, separated by as little as five years of age, experienced distinctly lower risk of death from tuberculosis as they entered young adulthood. There was a rapid convergence in age‐specific patterns of tuberculosis death rates in Mexican Americans toward those of non‐Hispanic whites, so that by 1960 tuberculosis was primarily a cause of death in old age rather than young adulthood. The impact of changing environment, both through improvements of conditions within neighborhoods and through residential mobility, on birth cohorts at risk of tuberculosis needs to be examined in further research.     

The contribution of longevity to population death rates

The magnitude of a population's per capita death rate depends on the maximum age at death and the intensity or schedule of mortality of its members. Knowing the maximum possible lifespan that an animal can achieve when raised under defined conditions makes it possible to calculate the component of per capita death rate due to longevity alone. This component is most important to slow-growing populations of animals with relatively short lifespans. Life-table experiments with two rotifer species and a cladoceran indicate that the short lifespans of these animals account for moderate proportions (up to 37.2%) of their population death rates. Decomposing per capita death rates into two components, one due to maximum length of life and another due to differential mortality of animals of different ages, may therefore be a useful way to examine how deleterious processes, such as predation and starvation, limit growth of zooplankton populations.     

Has the transition to agriculture reshaped the demographic structure of prehistoric populations? New evidence from the Levant

This paper presents the demographic changes that followed the transition from a hunting-gathering way of life (Natufian) to an agricultural, food-producing economy (Neolithic) in the southern Levant. The study is based on 217 Natufian (10,500-8,300 BC) skeletons and 262 Neolithic (8,300-5,500 BC) skeletons. Age and sex identification were carried out, and life tables were constructed. A five-parameter competing hazard model developed by Siler ([1979] Ecology 60:750-757) was used to smooth life-table data. No indication of increased mortality with the advent of agriculture was noted. On the contrary, both life expectancy at birth (24.6 vs. 25.5 years) and adults' mean age at death (31.2 vs. 32.1 years) increased slightly from the Natufian to the Neolithic period (assuming stationary populations). Yet the transition to agriculture affected males and females differently: mean age at death in the Natufian was higher for adult females compared to adult males, while in the Neolithic, it was the reverse. One interpretation given to the distribution of female ages at death is that with the onset of the Neolithic period, maternal mortality increased as a result of a concomitant increase in fertility. If the adoption of agriculture in the Levant increased the rate of population growth at the beginning of the Neolithic, expectation of life may have increased dramatically.     

Development of human brain

The human has the most complex brain of the primates group. Their development is prolonged beyond birth and it is not completed structurally nor neurochemically until age of 20 years. Decades later, degenerative phenomena begin to be evident, that little by little will drive us to death. At the end of the life, 113 grams aproximate of cerebral mass are lost. The endowment of furrows and convolutions are fixed before birth, while the cerebral surface ends up having values next to the adult at 2 years. However the cerebral weight reaches its maximum at the 20 year-old decade. A first phase of neuronal death appears during the prenatal life, which is continued by another postnatal phase, and it ends with the definitive number of neurons. However, along life, the number of neurons decreases little by little at the time of the neuroglial cells increase. Much about brain knowledge at the moment is difficult to apply to the cranial endocasts, although approaches from the MNR are hopeful.     

Models for estimating empirical Gompertz mortality: With an application to evolution of the Gompertzian slope

Using data from the human mortality database (HMD), and five different modeling approaches, we estimate Gompertz mortality parameters for 7,704 life tables. To gauge model fit, we predict life expectancy at age 40 from these parameters, and compare predicted to empirical values. Across a diversity of human populations, and both sexes, the overall best way to estimate Gompertz parameters is weighted least squares, although Poisson regression performs better in 996 cases for males and 1,027 cases for females, out of 3,852 populations per sex. We recommend against using unweighted least squares unless death counts (to use as weights or to allow Poisson estimation) are unavailable. We also recommend fitting to logged death rates. Over time in human populations, the Gompertz slope parameter has increased, indicating a more severe increase in mortality rates as age goes up. However, it is well-known that the two parameters of the Gompertz model are very tightly (and negatively) correlated. When the slope goes up, the level goes down, and, overall, mortality rates are decreasing over time. An analysis of Gompertz parameters for all of the HMD countries shows a distinct pattern for males in the formerly socialist economies of Europe.     

武夷山米槠种群结构及谱分析

在武夷山自然保护区对米槠种群数量动态进行了系统研究,编制了静态生命表,分析了存活曲线和死亡曲线,同时应用谱分析方法分析种群数量的动态变化。结果表明,武夷山自然保护区米槠种群基本属于进展型或稳定型,幼龄级个体多,中老龄级个体少。不同海拔的种群密度存在差异,其中C种群密度最大;静态生命表显示,种群在Ⅰ、Ⅱ径级时死亡率较高,随着年龄增加,死亡率逐渐降低,但到了Ⅳ、Ⅴ径级,由于生理衰老死亡率又上升;种群期望寿命在Ⅰ、Ⅱ径级较高,随着年龄增加,期望寿命逐渐下降;不同海拔的米槠种群的存活曲线均接近于Deevey Ⅲ 型。米槠种群自然更新过程存在明显的周期。     

The effect of age on motor neurone death following axotomy in the mouse.

The ability of mouse motor neurones to survive axotomy during the first month of life was studied. The motor neurones that lie in the dorsolateral columns of spinal segments C7 and C8 and supply the flexor muscles of the forepaw were axotomized by cutting and removing part of the median and ulnar nerves above the elbow. The number and position of cell bodies with axons in these nerves were confirmed by retrograde labelling of the cut axons with horseradish peroxidase. The ability of these neurones to survive axotomy varies with the age of the animal at the time of axotomy. When the axons are sectioned within the first four postnatal days, 80-90% of the cell bodies will die, more than half of this death occurring in less than one week after axotomy. If the animals are one week old at the time the nerves are cut, a significantly smaller number (50%) die (P = 0.013), and the time-course of death is different, with eight to ten days elapsing before half the death has occurred. 40% of the neurones will die if sectioned at two weeks of age, and it is not until four weeks of age that more than 90% of the cells can survive axotomy. We conclude, therefore, that the kinetics of motor neurone death, as well as the final extent of neuronal loss, are affected by the age at which the animal is axotomized.     

Calculation of longevity and life expectancy in captive elephants

The concepts of longevity (longest lived) and life expectancy (typical age at death) are common demographic parameters that provide insight into a population. Defined as the longest lived individual, longevity is easily calculated but is not representative, as only one individual will live to this extreme. Longevity records for North American Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) and African elephants (Loxodonta africana) have not yet been set, as the oldest individuals (77 and 53 years, respectively) are still alive. One Asian elephant lived to 86 years in the Taipei Zoo. This is comparable to the maximum (though not typical) longevity estimated in wild populations. Calculation of life expectancy, however, must use statistics that are appropriate for the data available, the distribution of the data, and the species' biology. Using a simple arithmetic mean to describe the non‐normally distributed age at death for elephant populations underestimates life expectancy. Use of life‐table analysis to estimate median survivorship or survival analysis to estimate average survivorship are more appropriate for the species' biology and the data available, and provide more accurate estimates. Using a life‐table, the median life expectancy for female Asian elephants (Lx=0.50) is 35.9 years in North America and 41.9 years in Europe. Survival analysis estimates of average life expectancy for Asian elephants are 47.6 years in Europe and 44.8 years in North America. Survival analysis estimates for African elephants are less robust due to less data. Currently the African elephant average life expectancy estimate in North America is 33.0 years, but this is likely to increase with more data, as it has over the past 10 years. Zoo Biol 23:365–373, 2004. © 2004 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.