Climate change affects winter chill for temperate fruit and nut trees

Background

Temperate fruit and nut trees require adequate winter chill to produce economically viable yields. Global warming has the potential to reduce available winter chill and greatly impact crop yields.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We estimated winter chill for two past (1975 and 2000) and 18 future scenarios (mid and end 21st century; 3 Global Climate Models [GCMs]; 3 greenhouse gas emissions [GHG] scenarios). For 4,293 weather stations around the world and GCM projections, Safe Winter Chill (SWC), the amount of winter chill that is exceeded in 90% of all years, was estimated for all scenarios using the “Dynamic Model” and interpolated globally. We found that SWC ranged between 0 and about 170 Chill Portions (CP) for all climate scenarios, but that the global distribution varied across scenarios. Warm regions are likely to experience severe reductions in available winter chill, potentially threatening production there. In contrast, SWC in most temperate growing regions is likely to remain relatively unchanged, and cold regions may even see an increase in SWC. Climate change impacts on SWC differed quantitatively among GCMs and GHG scenarios, with the highest GHG leading to losses up to 40 CP in warm regions, compared to 20 CP for the lowest GHG.

Conclusions/Significance

The extent of projected changes in winter chill in many major growing regions of fruits and nuts indicates that growers of these commodities will likely experience problems in the future. Mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can help reduce the impacts, however, adaption to changes will have to occur. To better prepare for likely impacts of climate change, efforts should be undertaken to breed tree cultivars for lower chilling requirements, to develop tools to cope with insufficient winter chill, and to better understand the temperature responses of tree crops.     

A global climate niche for giant trees

Rainforests are among the most charismatic as well as the most endangered ecosystems of the world. However, although the effects of climate change on tropical forests resilience is a focus of intense research, the conditions for their equally impressive temperate counterparts remain poorly understood, and it remains unclear whether tropical and temperate rainforests have fundamental similarities or not. Here we use new global data from high precision laser altimetry equipment on satellites to reveal for the first time that across climate zones ‘giant forests’ are a distinct and universal phenomenon, reflected in a separate mode of canopy height (~40 m) worldwide. Occurrence of these giant forests (cutoff height > 25 m) is negatively correlated with variability in rainfall and temperature. We also demonstrate that their distribution is sharply limited to situations with a mean annual precipitation above a threshold of 1,500 mm that is surprisingly universal across tropical and temperate climates. The total area with such precipitation levels is projected to increase by ~4 million km² globally. Our results thus imply that strategic management could in principle facilitate the expansion of giant forests, securing critically endangered biodiversity as well as carbon storage in selected regions.     

A general strategy for the isolation of mesophyll protoplasts from deciduous fruit and nut tree species

An enzyme mixture of general applicability, containing 1.0% Onozuka R-10, 1.0% Hemicellulase, and 0.1% Pectolyase Y-23 provided the basis for the isolation of large numbers of viable mesophyll protoplasts from woody species within the families Betulaceae, Juglandaceae, Rosaceae and Rutaceae. This is the first report of protoplast isolation from leaves of hazelnut, walnut, sweet cherry, sour cherry and the common pear.     

RAPD技术在果树上的应用(综述)

本文综述RAPD技术的基本原理、特点及在果树品种鉴定、系谱分析、遗传作图、基因定位、育种等方面的应用,并对RAPD技术存在的问题进行讨论.     

三只羊岩溶峰丛洼地果-药复合栽培模式研究

岩溶峰丛洼地的耕地可分为3种类型:洼底平地、带状阶梯地和高坡石穴地。传统的玉米+黄豆种植模式在三种类型耕地上的产值均很低,需要调整品种结构,改革种植模式。该文报道了基于三种耕地特点的四种果-药复合种植试验,即沙田柚+绞股蓝、大果枇杷+射干+扶芳藤、无核黄皮+射干+扶芳藤、四月桃+金银花。初步结果显示,四种模式均可大幅度提高耕地的产值,可作为岩溶峰丛洼地地区生态农业可持续发展的重要模式。     

Biotechnology of temperate fruit trees and grapevines

Challenges concerning fruit trees and grapevines as long lived woody perennial crops require adapted biotechnological approaches, if solutions are to be found within a reasonable time frame. These challenges are represented by the need for correct identification of genetic resources, with the foreseen use either in conservation or in breeding programmes. Molecular markers provide most accurate information and will be the major solution for questions about plant breeders rights. Providing healthy planting material and rapid detection of newly introduced pathogens by reliable methods involving serological and molecular biological tools will be a future challenge of increases importance, given the fact that plant material travels freely in the entire European Union. But also new breeding goals and transgenic solutions are part of the biotechnological benefits, e.g. resistance against biotic and abiotic stress factors, modified growth habits, modified nutritional properties and altered processing and storage qualities. The successful characterization of transgenic grapevines and stone fruit trees carrying genes of viral origin in different vectors constructed under ecological consideration, will be presented. Beyond technical feasibility, efficiency of resistance, environmental safety and Intellectual Property Rights, also public acceptance needs consideration and has been addressed in a specific project. The molecular determination of internal quality parameters of food can also be addressed by the use of biotechnological tools. Patient independent detection tools for apple allergens have been developed and should allow to compare fruits from different production systems, sites, and genotypes for their content of health threatening compounds.     

A global goodness-of-fit statistic for Cox regression models

In this paper, a global goodness-of-fit test statistic for a Cox regression model, which has an approximate chi-squared distribution when the model has been correctly specified, is proposed. Our goodness-of-fit statistic is global and has power to detect if interactions or higher order powers of covariates in the model are needed. The proposed statistic is similar to the Hosmer and Lemeshow (1980, Communications in Statistics A10, 1043-1069) goodness-of-fit statistic for binary data as well as Schoenfeld's (1980, Biometrika 67, 145-153) statistic for the Cox model. The methods are illustrated using data from a Mayo Clinic trial in primary billiary cirrhosis of the liver (Fleming and Harrington, 1991, Counting Processes and Survival Analysis), in which the outcome is the time until liver transplantation or death. The are 17 possible covariates. Two Cox proportional hazards models are fit to the data, and the proposed goodness-of-fit statistic is applied to the fitted models.     

Uniform standards for genome databases in forest and fruit trees

TreeGenes and tree fruit Genome Database Resources serve the international forestry and fruit tree genomics research communities, respectively. These databases hold similar sequence data and provide resources for the submission and recovery of this information in order to enable comparative genomics research. Large-scale genotype and phenotype projects have recently spawned the development of independent tools and interfaces within these repositories to deliver information to both geneticists and breeders. The increase in next generation sequencing projects has increased the amount of data as well as the scale of analysis that can be performed. These two repositories are now working towards a similar goal of archiving the diverse, independent data sets generated from genotype/phenotype experiments. This is achieved through focused development on data input standards (templates), pipelines for the storage and automated curation, and consistent annotation efforts through the application of widely accepted ontologies to improve the extraction and exchange of the data for comparative analysis. Efforts towards standardization are not limited to genotype/phenotype experiments but are also being applied to other data types to improve gene prediction and annotation for de novo sequencing projects. The resources developed towards these goals represent the first large-scale coordinated effort in plant databases to add informatics value to diverse genotype/phenotype experiments.     

Chilling and heat requirements for flowering in temperate fruit trees

Climate change has affected the rates of chilling and heat accumulation, which are vital for flowering and production, in temperate fruit trees, but few studies have been conducted in the cold-winter climates of East Asia. To evaluate tree responses to variation in chill and heat accumulation rates, partial least squares regression was used to correlate first flowering dates of chestnut (Castanea mollissima Blume) and jujube (Zizyphus jujube Mill.) in Beijing, China, with daily chill and heat accumulation between 1963 and 2008. The Dynamic Model and the Growing Degree Hour Model were used to convert daily records of minimum and maximum temperature into horticulturally meaningful metrics. Regression analyses identified the chilling and forcing periods for chestnut and jujube. The forcing periods started when half the chilling requirements were fulfilled. Over the past 50 years, heat accumulation during tree dormancy increased significantly, while chill accumulation remained relatively stable for both species. Heat accumulation was the main driver of bloom timing, with effects of variation in chill accumulation negligible in Beijing’s cold-winter climate. It does not seem likely that reductions in chill will have a major effect on the studied species in Beijing in the near future. Such problems are much more likely for trees grown in locations that are substantially warmer than their native habitats, such as temperate species in the subtropics and tropics.     

三只羊岩溶峰丛洼地果-药复合栽培模式研究

岩溶峰丛洼地的耕地可分为3种类型：洼底平地、带状阶梯地和高坡石穴地。传统的玉米＋黄豆种植模式在三种类型耕地上的产值均很低,需要调整品种结构,改革种植模式。该文报道了基于三种耕地特点的四种果一药复合种植试验,即沙田柚＋绞股蓝、大果枇杷＋射干＋扶芳藤、无核黄皮＋射干＋扶芳藤、四月桃＋金银花。初步结果显示,四种模式均可大幅度提高耕地的产值,可作为岩溶峰丛洼地地区生态农业可持续发展的重要模式。     

Effects of adult chill treatments on mate attracting potential for irradiated Mexican fruit fly males

Mexican fruit flies, Anastrepha ludens (Loew), that are reared, sterilized and released for maintenance of a fly free zone in south Texas and for population eradication in California are routinely chilled for 1 to 2 h to facilitate handling and dispersal. While a number of behavioral, physical and physiological characteristics are routinely monitored as part of a quality control program, the effect of the chilling process on the ability of these males to attract wild females has not been evaluated. Tests were performed to compare the mate attracting effectiveness of mass reared, sterilized, chilled males with sterile males that had not been chilled and with recently colonized males. Tests were performed with two recently colonized strains of females in a large cage and males of the three types in plastic cups set on top of the cage. Controls consisted of empty cups. Results showed no significant differences among the three types of males. In tests with the most recently collected (least laboratory adapted) wild strain of females, the chilled males attracted the most females. Fly age and time of day were both significantly related to total attractiveness of males. Number of females responding to males per day increased over the five-day test period. The time period when female response was greatest was variable among the tests.     

Phages in the global fruit and vegetable industry

From recent articles, we have learned that phages can constitute a promising alternative in the food industry to eliminate bacterial pathogens from seedlings in greenhouse and field environments, as well as from fresh‐cut food products. The fruit and vegetable industry requires quite a different approach than the meat or dairy industry. Several factors can inhibit efficacy of phage treatment such as plant watering or washing ready‐to‐eat products (water may dilute therapeutic doses), UV irradiation or extensive spreading of phytopathogens by wind, insects or even humans. Spontaneously occurring anomalous weather conditions in different parts of the world also may have an enormous impact on phage persistence in cultivations and on yields. Despite that, some phage preparations are commercially available and, without doubt, are much safer than chemical treatments. Along with increasing worldwide fruit and vegetable consumption, plant diseases and human foodborne illnesses are becoming a serious economic problem, resulting in a focus on optimization of phage treatment.     

Distributions of cherries for two models of trees

Null models for generating binary phylogenetic trees are useful for testing evolutionary hypotheses and reconstructing phylogenies. We consider two such null models - the Yule and uniform models - and in particular the induced distribution they generate on the number C(n) of cherries in the tree, where a cherry is a pair of leaves each of which is adjacent to a common ancestor. By realizing the process of cherry formation in these two models by extended Polya urn models we show that C(n) is asymptotically normal. We also give exact formulas for the mean and standard deviation of the C(n) in these two models. This allows simple statistical tests for the Yule and uniform null hypotheses.     

Local and global stability for population models

In general, local stability does not imply global stability. We show that this is true even if one only considers population models.We show that a population model is globally stable if and only if it has no cycle of period 2. We also derive easy to test sufficient conditions for global stability. We demonstrate that these sufficient conditions are useful by showing that for a number of population models from the literature, local and global stability coincide.We suggest that the models from the literature are in some sense simple, and that this simplicity causes local and global stability to coincide.     

RAPD技术在果树种质资源研究中的应用（综述）

PAPD技术具有快速、方便、灵敏度高、检测容易的优点,在颗树种质资源及育种中应用潜力颇大。本文综述为RAPD技术在颗树种质资源中的应用状况。     

Development of molecular tests for the detection of ILAR and latent viruses in fruit trees

The detection throughout the year of latent and ILAR viruses in fruit tress by classical serological tests appear to be unreliable. We have developed RT-PCR tests for a reliable detection of latent and ILAR viruses in fruit trees. These assays were then simplified to allow the direct use of crude plant extracts instead of total RNA preparations, and the analyses of pooled samples. In this way, such RT-PCR protocols are suitable for a routine diagnosis of latent and ILAR viruses in fruit tree certification.     

果树对水分胁迫反应研究进展(综述)

综述近十多年果树对水分胁迫反应的研究进展。对果树在水分胁迫下叶片、根系的形态和显微结构的变化以及气孔反应、光合作用、水势变化、碳水化合物代谢、矿质营养、活性氧代谢、多胺代谢、内源激素、脯氨酸和甜菜碱等生理生化指标的反应作了全面的阐述。