Long-term pattern of population dynamics in the field vole from central Europe: cyclic pattern with amplitude dampening

The subject of population cycles is regarded as controversial due to a number of unsettled questions such as whether or not cyclic patterns are governed by the same processes at high and low latitudes in Europe. Recent evidence suggests that the dynamics at high and low latitudes share the common temporal pattern of vole dynamics referred to as collapsing population cycles. Despite concurrent interest, the key contention around the causal mechanisms that drive population cycles remains a hot topic in ecology. The aims of this study are to supplement information on the seasonal population dynamics of the field vole Microtus agrestis in the Czech Republic by analysing 25 years of time series data. By applying robust estimation procedures, we estimated several parameters to describe population dynamics, such as population variability, amplitude dampening, cycle period, order of the dynamics and the structure of density dependence. The parameters indicate that field vole dynamics in central Europe are highly variable, cyclic dynamics of order two, with peaks in abundance occurring regularly at intervals of 4–5 years. In addition to exhibiting population cycles, the field vole populations show a pattern of dampened amplitude as observed elsewhere in Europe, including northern latitudes. By analysing temporal trends in seasonal abundances, population growth rates and environmental temperatures, we did not obtain evidence to support the hypothesis that amplitude dampening results from the negative effect of increasingly mild winters on winter population growth rates.     

Evidence for selection at cytokine loci in a natural population of field voles (Microtus agrestis)

Individuals in natural populations are frequently exposed to a wide range of pathogens. Given the diverse profile of gene products involved in responses to different types of pathogen, this potentially results in complex pathogen-specific selection pressures acting on a broad spectrum of immune system genes in wild animals. Thus far, studies into the evolution of immune genes in natural populations have focused almost exclusively on the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC). However, the MHC represents only a fraction of the immune system and there is a need to broaden research in wild species to include other immune genes. Here, we examine the evidence for natural selection in a range of non-MHC genes in a natural population of field voles (Microtus agrestis). We concentrate primarily on genes encoding cytokines, signalling molecules critical in eliciting and mediating immune responses and identify signatures of natural selection acting on several of these genes. In particular, genetic diversity within Interleukin 1 beta and Interleukin 2 appears to have been maintained through balancing selection. Taken together with previous findings that polymorphism within these genes is associated with variation in resistance to multiple pathogens, this suggests that pathogen-mediated selection may be an important force driving genetic diversity at cytokine loci in voles and other natural populations. These results also suggest that, along with the MHC, preservation of genetic variation within cytokine genes should be a priority for the conservation genetics of threatened wildlife populations.     

Population growth and habitat distribution in cyclic small rodents: to expand or to change?

Habitat selection determined by intraspecific interactions (social behaviour), being either free or despotic, should result in the largest densities in the most favourable habitat at least in late increase and decline phases of cyclic populations. Habitat distribution determined by interspecific effects such as herbivore-plant or predator-prey interactions may result in higher densities in inferior habitats at late peaks and/or declines due to overgrazing of preferred habitats, or invasion of such habitats by specialist predators. An examination of the distributions of the rodent species Clethrionomys glareolus and Microtus agrestis during a population cycle on forest clearcuts at Grimsö, south-central Sweden, demonstrated clear changes towards less preferred habitats during the decline phase, particularly in M. agrestis. Intraspecific competition could be excluded as a cause since the numbers of both species declined simultaneously. There was no sign of overgrazing, while weasels, Mustela nivalis, invaded the preferred M. agrestis habitat during peak–decline. Predation thus appears more important for the local occurrence at early decline, rather than territoriality or other social behaviour. It is concluded that distributions in various habitats do not always reveal any primary habitat selection but, rather, habitat-dependent survival.     

Tawny owl prey remains indicate differences in the dynamics of coastal and inland vole populations in southern Finland

Some studies suggest that mild winters decrease overwinter survival of small mammals or coincide with decreased cyclicity in vole numbers, whereas other studies suggest non-significant or positive relationships between mild winter conditions and vole population dynamics. We expect for the number of voles to be higher in the rich and low-lying habitats of the coastal areas than in the less fertile areas inland. We assume that this geographical difference in vole abundances is diminished by mild winters especially in low-lying habitats. We examine these relationships by generalized linear mixed models using prey remains of breeding tawny owls Strix aluco as a proxy for the abundance of voles. The higher number of small voles in the coastal area than in the inland area suggest that vole populations were denser in the coastal area. Vole populations of both areas were affected by winter weather conditions particularly in March, but these relationships differed between areas. The mild ends of winter with frequent fluctuations of the ambient temperature around the freezing point (“frost seesaw”) constrained significantly the coastal vole populations, while deep snow cover, in general after hard winters, was followed by significantly lowered number of voles only in the inland populations. Our results suggest that coastal vole populations are more vulnerable to mild winters than inland ones. We also show that tawny owl prey remains can be used in a meaningful way to study vole population dynamics.     

Population dynamics in a cyclic environment: consequences of cyclic food abundance on tawny owl reproduction and survival

1. Understanding which factors regulate population dynamics may help us to understand how a population would respond to environmental change, and why some populations are declining.
2. In southern Finland, vole abundance shows a three-phased cycle of low, increase and decrease phases, but these have been fading out in recent years. During five such cycles (1981–1995), all tawny owls Strix aluco were censused in a 250-km² study area, and their reproduction and survival were monitored.
3. Males and females showed similar dynamics, but experienced breeders recruited more offspring and had higher survival than first breeders. Offspring recruitment, but not survival of breeding individuals varied in accordance with vole abundance.
4. The population's numerical response to prey abundance was primarily due to first-breeding individuals entering the population in the increase phase when immigration was the highest. First-breeding birds were younger, but experienced breeders were older in more favourable vole years.
5. A stage-specific matrix population model integrating survival and fecundity showed that, despite obvious variation in fecundity between vole cycle phases, this variation had limited importance for overall tawny owl population dynamics, but that the survival of experienced breeders during the low phase is most important for population growth.
6. Model and data agreed that the vole cycle drives the dynamics of this avian predator by limiting the recruitment of new breeders during the low phase. Population dynamics hence differ not only from the classic example of the species in a more temperate region in the UK where the number of territories is stable across years, but also from the dynamics of other avian vole predators in Fennoscandia where the recurring crash in vole abundance drastically lowers adult survival thereby creating vacancies.     

Climate and landscape drivers of tree decline in a Mediterranean ecoregion

Climate change and anthropogenic land use are increasingly affecting the resilience of natural ecosystems. In Mediterranean ecoregions, forests and woodlands have shown progressive declines in health. This study focuses on the decline of an endemic woodland tree species, Eucalyptus wandoo (wandoo), occurring in the biodiversity hotspot of southwest Western Australia. We determined the change in health of wandoo stands between 2002 and 2008 across its geographic and climatic range, and associated this change in health with non‐biotic variables focusing on: (1) fragment metrics; (2) topography; (3) soil characteristics; and (4) climate. Only fragment metrics and climate variables were found to be significantly related to the observed change in health. Stands that were small with high perimeter/area ratios were found to be most sensitive to health declines. Recent increases in autumn temperatures and decreases in annual rainfall were negatively affecting health of wandoo most prominently in the low rainfall zone of its climatic range. Together, these results suggest the onset of range contraction for this ecologically important species, which is likely to be exacerbated by projected future changes in climate. Our results emphasize the importance of establishing monitoring programs to identify changes in health and decline trends early to inform management strategies, particularly in the sensitive Mediterranean ecoregions.     

Home range size and overlap in female root voles: effects of season and density

In small mammals living in highly seasonal environments, observationalstudies show that female home range size and exclusiveness aresmaller in the nonbreeding winter season than in the breedingsummer season. This has led to the notion that nonbreeding femalesare more social and decrease territorial behavior during winter.However, because territoriality decreases with increasing populationdensity, and density normally increases during the breedingseason, the effects of density and season on social structureare usually confounded. To find out which of the 2 factors explainsspace use, we experimentally established 3 high-density and3 low-density root vole (Microtus oeconomus) populations inlate spring and monitored the populations into the nonbreedingwinter season. Population sizes were controlled throughout thebreeding period to minimize seasonal variation in density. Homerange sizes were larger in founder females than in field-bornfemales but did not change with season or density. Area exclusivelyused by individual females was lower in winter than summer,and founder females decreased exclusiveness as density increased.We argue that this seasonal pattern of space use might be causedby variation in benefits of group living, whereas founder femalesalso responded to density-dependent competition by reducingarea exclusively used.     

Demographic effects of extreme winter weather in the barn owl

Extreme weather events can lead to immediate catastrophic mortality. Due to their rare occurrence, however, the long-term impacts of such events for ecological processes are unclear. We examined the effect of extreme winters on barn owl (Tyto alba) survival and reproduction in Switzerland over a 68-year period (∼20 generations). This long-term data set allowed us to compare events that occurred only once in several decades to more frequent events. Winter harshness explained 17 and 49% of the variance in juvenile and adult survival, respectively, and the two harshest winters were associated with major population crashes caused by simultaneous low juvenile and adult survival. These two winters increased the correlation between juvenile and adult survival from 0.63 to 0.69. Overall, survival decreased non-linearly with increasing winter harshness in adults, and linearly in juveniles. In contrast, brood size was not related to the harshness of the preceding winter. Our results thus reveal complex interactions between climate and demography. The relationship between weather and survival observed during regular years is likely to underestimate the importance of climate variation for population dynamics.     

Patterns of phenological changes in migratory birds

The phenology of avian migration appears to be changing in response to climate change. Seemingly contradictory differences in the timing of these annual cycles have been reported in published studies. We show that differences between studies in the choice of songbird species, as well as in the measurements of migration phenology, can explain most of the reported differences. Furthermore, while earlier spring arrival is evident across these studies, trends in timing of departure show large variation between species and according to individual timing of migration (early-arriving vs. late-departing individuals). Much of the variation in departure between species could be explained by each species’ migratory status. We present a detailed analysis of migrants recorded at a Danish migration site, and reveal that although shifts in migration timing can be demonstrated for almost all species, these shifts are either most pronounced in the early arriving/late departing individuals or the changes are similar. Thus most individuals do not seem to change their breeding-area residence time (BART). As BART is likely to reflect ecologically important factors, e.g. number of clutches, we expect that only small effects have been exerted on the breeding ecology of the studied species in the time period investigated. Electronic supplementary material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at and is accessible for authorized users.     

Effects of temperature on performance and phenotypic selection on plant traits in alpine Ranunculus acris

Discovering temperature effects on the performance of tundra plants is important in the light of expected climate change. In this 4-year study on alpine Ranunculus acris, I test the hypothesis that temperature influences flowering phenology, reproductive success, growth, population dynamics, and phenotypic selection on quantitative traits, by experimental warming using open-top chambers (OTCs). Warming significantly advanced flowering phenology in only one season. Seed number and weight were significantly increased by warming during the first three seasons, but not in the fourth. Plants inside OTCs produced bigger leaves than control plants in the fourth season, but leaf number was unaffected by the OTC treatment. Despite increased seed number and weight, the density of flowering plants decreased inside OTCs compared to control plots, possibly because of a higher graminoid cover inside OTCs. Phenotypic-selection regression showed a significant selection differential and gradient in the direction of larger leaf sizes in control plants, whereas no selection on leaf size was detected on warmed plants. The direction and strength of selection on flowering time, flower number, and leaf number did not differ between control and warmed plants. The results suggest that increased reproductive output of R. acris may not be sufficient to maintain current population density under a denser vegetation cover. Received: 1 December 1998 / Accepted: 14 April 1999     

环境演变及三峡工程对洞庭湖区东方田鼠种群影响的评估

根据历史资料,分析了洞庭湖洲滩演变与东方田鼠种群变动之间的关系。再根据三峡工程建成后下泄流量调度方案,分析了三峡工程对洞庭湖湖水位及洲滩环境的影响,进而评估三峡工程对东方田鼠种群波动的影响。结果表明,洲滩出露面积的不断增大和冬、春季洲滩连续出露天数的增加,使东方田鼠的栖息地扩大,并使其种群增长期延长,从而使其种群膨胀,三峡工程建成后初期,10－11月洲滩出露天数和出露面积将比建坝前同期有较大增长,建坝后中长期,洲滩出露天数和出露面积逐渐增大,东方田鼠种群亦将随之继续增长。因此,汛期洲滩被淹后将有更多的东方田鼠迁入到垸内,对农田的危害将进一步加重。     

Changes in bird populations on sample lowland English farms in relation to loss of hedgerows and other non-crop habitats

Farmland bird population trends were examined on a sample of lowland English farms to assess the relative importance of habitat loss and habitat degradation. Data were extracted from 11 farms surveyed by territory mapping between 1966 and 1986 as part of the British Trust for Ornithology's Common Birds Census. The population size of 38 bird species was quantified for each farm in each year. The extents of five non-crop habitats were measured at 4-yearly intervals on each farm. The farms were selected because some had undergone extensive removal of non-crop habitats while others had undergone little or none. Although declines were commonest on farms where the severest habitat loss had taken place, we found no evidence that habitat loss was the main factor causing population declines: all 11 farms had significant numbers of declining species, even where habitat loss was minimal. Furthermore, general linear modelling found no significant effects of habitat loss on population trends and principal-components analysis found limited effects of habitat extent on community composition. These results suggest that habitat loss is of secondary importance in causing farmland bird population declines. We suggest that other processes, such as habitat degradation, may have caused a baseline population decline in at least 10 farmland bird species and that declines may have been exacerbated by localised habitat loss. Received: 4 February 1998 / Accepted: 1 April 1998     

Unfavorable successional pathways and the conservation value of logged tropical forest

Conservation agencies are increasingly advocating that the survival of many tropical forest species may depend on disturbed forests and are directing scarce conservation resources to managing logged forests. This requires critical evaluation. In this 10-year study, we quantify tree community dynamics in three selectively logged areas harvested at different intensities and compare their recovery to two unlogged areas in Kibale National Park, Uganda. Over the 10 years, 527 of the original 4840 tagged trees (10cm DBH) died; while the mortality rate was highest in the heavily logged area, it was only significantly greater than one of the unlogged sites. The density of new trees varied significantly among areas being highest in the lightly logged area, but the density of new recruits in the heavily logged area did not differ from the unlogged areas. Overall, the more heavily logged areas had higher growth rates than the unlogged or lightly logged areas. However, there was no difference among areas in the magnitude of the change in basal area; and in both 1990 (20+ years post-harvest) and 2000 the basal area in the heavily logged area was significantly less than the unlogged areas. In general, findings from the heavily logged area suggest that the expectation that in logged areas a number of processes of forest regeneration will be accelerated relative to unlogged forest was not met. Thus, 30+ years after logging evidence suggests that forest recovery will be slower than expected. We also present evidence to suggest that the climate in the region is changing, which may account for changes in the population dynamics of certain species in the unlogged forests.     

Growth and decline of a penguin colony and the influence on nesting density and reproductive success

Colonial breeding is characteristic of seabirds but nesting at high density has both advantages and disadvantages and may reduce survival and fecundity. African penguins (Spheniscus demersus) initiated breeding at Robben Island, South Africa in 1983. The breeding population on the island increased in the late 1990s and early 2000s before decreasing rapidly until 2010. Before the number breeding peaked, local nest density in the areas where the colony was initiated plateaued, suggesting that preferred nests sites were mostly occupied, and the area used by breeding birds expanded. However, it did not contract again as the population decreased, so that nesting density varied substantially. Breeding success was related positively to the prey available to the breeding birds and negatively to local nest density, particularly during the chick-rearing period, suggesting a density-dependence operating through social interactions in the colony, possibly exacerbated by poor prey availability when the breeding population was large. Although nest density at Robben Island was not high, nesting burrows, which probably reduce the incidence of aggressive encounters in the colony, are scarce and our results suggest that habitat alteration has modified the strength of density-dependent relationships for African penguins. Gaining a better understanding of how density dependence affects fecundity and population growth rates in colonial breeders is important for informing conservation management of the African penguin and other threatened taxa.     

Multiscale modelling of the drivers of rainforest boundary dynamics in Kakadu National Park, northern Australia

Understanding the relative importance of factors driving savanna–forest dynamics is vital as changes in the extent of tropical forests can have major impacts on global climate and carbon balance, biodiversity, and human well-being. Comparison of aerial photographs for 50 rainforest patches in Kakadu National Park had previously revealed a landscape wide expansion of rainforest boundaries between 1964 and 2004. Here, we used generalized linear and mixed effects models to assess the role of fire, buffalo impact, and patch characteristics in determining the rate of boundary change. The analysis was conducted at both the patch scale, and within-patch (plot) scale, to capture the different processes operating. At the patch scale, the rate of change was best explained by rainforest type and historical buffalo impact. Fire activity, patch size, and fragmentation were not important predictors of the rate of change. At the plot scale, distance from rainforest edge was the most important predictor of the probability of change, while the fragmentation and aspect of the boundary were unimportant. Rainforest expansion has occurred through a process of margin extension rather than eruption of new patches. The rainforest expansion is consistent with having been driven primarily by shifts in global change phenomena, such as increased rainfall and atmospheric CO₂, rather than changes in disturbance regime. It appears that the current fire regimes are not sufficiently destructive to limit the overall expansion of the rainforest patches. Rainforest type and historical buffalo impact have mediated the rate of change at the patch scale.     

洞庭湖区东方田鼠种群动态及其危害预警

洞庭湖区东方田鼠以湖滩沼泽为最适栖息地．秋末洞庭湖水位回落,湖滩出露,东方田鼠从农田迁回到湖滩生活、繁殖,种群数量呈逐月上升趋势．春末夏初,洞庭湖水位上涨,湖滩被淹,东方田鼠被迫越过大堤迁入垸内农田．其种群动态由“水位影响东方田鼠的栖息地变换”主导．每年迁入农田的数量首先取决于东方田鼠在湖滩生活繁殖时期的长短,亦即枯水期的天数;其次3月降雨量对东方田鼠在湖滩上的繁殖有较大的影响．东方田鼠迁入垸内后,种群数量呈逐月下降趋势．在分析影响洞庭湖区东方田鼠种群数量动态的主要因子的基础上,提出了东方田鼠种群迁入垸内农田的迁入量预警模型．经过几年的实际预测,吻合情况良好．     

铅锌矿渣酸性淋溶下重金属释放特征及其对植物幼苗生长的影响

探讨了贵州省赫章铅锌矿区铅锌矿渣及尾矿酸性淋溶下重金属的释放特征及淋溶水对植物幼苗生长的影响。结果表明,随着淋溶时间的延长,淋溶水中Cu、Zn、Pb、Cd含量均呈下降趋势,其浓度范围分别为0.038～2.509、0.0001～0.850、0.040～0.605和0.004～0.021mg.L-1,淋溶水以Cd、Pb污染为主。前期(1～5d)淋溶水对幼苗的根长、芽长有显著的抑制作用,后期(20～25d)抑制作用明显下降;物种耐性由强到弱的大小顺序为白菜油菜黑麦草。     

农田周围生态保留带中普通田鼠的种群生态学：种群数量动态及结构

于2003年5月~2004年11月,采用标志重捕法对栖息在生态保留带的普通田鼠种群结构和数量动态进行了跟踪研究。结果表明,两年中种群密度夏季最大分别达到410个体/hm2和641个体/hm2,春季最少分别达到166个体/hm2和153个体/hm2,种群数量从7月份开始增长,8月份种群密度减少并于11月份开始重新增长。种群中雌性个体数量比较多,雌性在种群中的居留时间较长,同时存活率比雄性高,这导致种群数量的季节变化。种群周转率比较高,在两个捕鼠期间种群中的80%个体被更新,这表明普通田鼠在生态保留带中的活动非常频繁,不断与周围的其他种群进行交流,提高了种群对环境的适应能力。种群中雌雄个体的巢区之间没有年间变化,活动巢区比较小,巢区长度2003年平均为11 m,最长为37.5 m,2004年平均为13 m,最长为52 m。Pearson相关指数表明种群数量和生态保留带年龄、覆盖率和高度之间没有相关性。     

Synergistic effects of climate and land-use change on representation of African bats in priority conservation areas

Bats are considered important bioindicators and deliver key ecosystem services to humans. However, it is not clear how the individual and combined effects of climate change and land-use change will affect their conservation in the future. We used a spatial conservation prioritization framework to determine future shifts in the priority areas for the conservation of 169 bat species under projected climate and land-use change scenarios across Africa. Specifically, we modelled species distribution models under four different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon. We used land-use change scenarios within the spatial conservation prioritization framework to assess habitat quality in areas where bats may shift their distributions. Overall, bats’ representation within already existing protected areas in Africa was low (∼5% of their suitable habitat in protected areas which cover ∼7% of Africa). Accounting for future land-use change resulted in the largest shift in spatial priority areas for conservation actions, and species representation within priority areas for conservation actions decreased by ∼9%. A large proportion of spatial conservation priorities will shift from forested areas with little disturbance under present conditions to agricultural areas in the future. Planning land use to reduce impacts on bats in priority areas outside protected areas where bats will be shifting their ranges in the future is crucial to enhance their conservation and maintain the important ecosystem services they provide to humans.     

The climatic drivers of long-term population changes in rainforest montane birds

Climate-driven biodiversity erosion is escalating at an alarming rate. The pressure imposed by climate change is exceptionally high in tropical ecosystems, where species adapted to narrow environmental ranges exhibit strong physiological constraints. Despite the observed detrimental effect of climate change on ecosystems at a global scale, our understanding of the extent to which multiple climatic drivers affect population dynamics is limited. Here, we disentangle the impact of different climatic stressors on 47 rainforest birds inhabiting the mountains of the Australian Wet Tropics using hierarchical population models. We estimate the effect of spatiotemporal changes in temperature, precipitation, heatwaves, droughts and cyclones on the population dynamics of rainforest birds between 2000 and 2016. We find a strong effect of warming and changes in rainfall patterns across the elevational-segregated bird communities, with lowland populations benefiting from increasing temperature and precipitation, while upland species show an inverse strong negative response to the same drivers. Additionally, we find a negative effect of heatwaves on lowland populations, a pattern associated with the observed distribution of these extreme events across elevations. In contrast, cyclones and droughts have a marginal effect on spatiotemporal changes in rainforest bird communities, suggesting a species-specific response unrelated to the elevational gradient. This study demonstrated the importance of unravelling the drivers of climate change impacts on population changes, providing significant insight into the mechanisms accelerating climate-induced biodiversity degradation.