Climate‐driven fluctuations in surface‐water availability and the buffering role of artificial pumping in an African savanna: Potential implication for herbivore dynamics

Abstract In arid and semiarid environments surface‐water strongly constrains the distribution and abundance of large herbivores during the dry season. Surprisingly, we know very little about its variability in natural ecosystems. Here we used long‐term data on the dry‐season occurrence of water at individual waterholes to model the surface‐water availability across Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe, under contrasted climatic and management scenarios. Without artificial pumping only 19.6% of the park occurred within 5 km of water under average climatic conditions. However surface‐water availability was strongly influenced by annual rainfall, and over 20 years the variability of the surface area of the park occurring within 5 km of water was slightly larger than the variability of rainfall. This contrasts with the usual buffered response of vegetation production to rainfall fluctuations, and suggests that the variability in dry‐season foraging range determined by surface‐water availability could be the main mechanism regulating the population dynamics of large herbivores in this environment. Artificial pumping increased surface‐water availability and reduced its variability over time. Because changes in surface‐water availability could cause the greatest changes in forage availability for large herbivores, we urge ecologists to investigate and report on the variability of surface‐water in natural ecosystems, particularly where rapid climate changes are expected.     

Elephant survival,rainfall and the confounding effects of water provision and fences

Elephant are increasing across some areas of Africa leading to concerns that they may reduce woodlands through their feeding. Droughts may help limit elephant numbers, but they are generally both episodic and local. To explore more general impacts of rainfall, we examine how its annual variation influences elephant survival across ten sites. These sites span an almost coast-to-coast transect of southern Africa that holds the majority of the ~500,000 remaining savanna elephants. Elephants born in high rainfall years survive better than elephants born in low rainfall years. The relationship is generally weak, except at the two fenced sites, where rainfall greatly influenced juvenile survival. In these two sites, there are also extensive networks of artificial water. Rainfall likely affects elephant survival through its influence on food. The provision of artificial water opens new areas for elephants in the dry season, while fencing restricts their movements in the wet season. We conclude that the combination of these factors makes elephant survival more susceptible to reductions in rainfall. As a result, elephants living in enclosed reserves may be the first populations to feel the impacts of global warming which will decrease average rainfall and increase the frequency of droughts. A way to prevent these elephants from damaging the vegetation within these enclosed parks is for managers to reduce artificial water sources or, whenever practical, to remove fences.     

The numbers and distribution of elephant Loxodonta africana in the Rwenzori National Park and Chambura Game Reserve, Uganda

A series of aerial counts of elephant made between 1968 and 1972 in the Rwenzori National Park and Chambura Game Reserve, Uganda, is described. A summary is included of all previous aerial counts made in the region. Numbers present in the park since 1963 averaged 1752 during the dry seasons, some 3/5 of the wet season mean of 2896. Corresponding figures for the reserve are 325 and 501. The distribution was very significantly aggregated for each count and remained so when the totals for all counts were lumped. The distribution tended to be more aggregated in dry than in wet seasons. The overall density in the park was 1.43 elephant km-² with wet and dry season means of 1.74 and 1.05 respectively. Corresponding figures for the reserve are 2.06, 2.42 and 1.57 km-². The mean group size in the park was 6.3 elephant but there were significant variations over the whole range of observations although not between wet and dry season means. The elephant in the reserve were highly aggregated with a mean group size of 28.8. It is concluded that there was a significant rise in the wet season population of the park between 1963 and 1968 but that subsequently, numbers remained fairly stable. Numbers in the dry season and in the reserve at all seasons have not varied significantly since 1963. It is suggested that the wet season rise has been due to a reduction in the area of grazing land available outside the park at this time of year. It is concluded that vegetational differences are responsible for the un even distribution of elephant with human disturbance having an effect in some areas. It is believed that in the region censused, there are at least three distinct populations of elephant of which only that in the reserve is showing signs of stress.     

The role of wetlands in wildlife migration in the Tarangire ecosystem,Tanzania

Twenty-two years of rainfall data from six sites, 5 years of animal migration data and 2 years of water quality at 13 sites were explored to quantify the role of water in the Tarangire ecosystem. Inter-annual fluctuations in rainfall were large and not predictable solely from the Southern Oscillation Index. Seasonal fluctuations of rainfall were pronounced, with marked wet and dry seasons. In the dry season, the only drinking water available for wildlife was the Tarangire River and a number of small, scattered wetland-fringed water holes. Their salinity was often high (>8 ppt) and was higher in dry years than in wet years, as well as at the start of the wet season. Water quantity and quality may control the annual migration of wildebeest, zebra, elephants and buffaloes. These animals aggregate in the dry season in areas with the least salty water. The timing of seasonal variations in rainfall is largely predictable and controls annual migration. All wildebeest and most zebras migrated out of Tarangire National Park and into the wider Tarangire ecosystem at the start of the wet season, and they returned into the park in the dry season. Some elephants and buffaloes also migrated in out of the park and a larger resident population remained, whose size may vary inter-annually depending on surface water quantity and quality. The extent of the migration zone may also vary inter-annually.This revised version wa published online in March 2005 with corrections to the issue cover date.     

Variability of fish diets between dry and flood periods in an arid zone floodplain river

The fish assemblages of an arid zone floodplain river, Cooper Creek, Queensland, Australia, were sampled during two dry periods in isolated waterholes and on the inundated floodplain during the early and late phase of a major flood event. Diets were described for nine native species and compared within and between dry and flood periods. In the dry season, when fishes were restricted to waterholes, diets were characteristically simple with narrow diet breadths. Movement onto the floodplain during flooding clearly increased feeding opportunities, with greater diet breadths evident in all species. Despite obvious potential for terrestrial inputs, diets tended to be dominated by aquatic resources in both the waterholes and on the floodplain. Stomach fullness, however, varied little between dry season waterhole and floodplain samples. Fishes appeared to feed on potentially lower value resources such as detritus and calanoid copepods during the dry season, when waterholes were isolated and food resources were limited. They were then able to capitalize on the 'boom' of aquatic production and more diverse food resources associated with episodic flood events.     

西南干旱对哀牢山常绿阔叶林凋落物及叶面积指数的影响

为探讨2010年初西南干旱对这一地区原生植被林冠和凋落物量的影响,以及这一地区凋落物量和气候条件之间的关系,对比研究了哀牢山亚热带常绿阔叶林2010年和一般年份的凋落物特征以及各层的叶面积指数,并分析了凋落物量和气候因子之间的关系.2010年凋落物总量和往年相比无显著差异,但是叶凋落总量、旱季凋落物总量、旱季叶凋落量为历年来最高,其中旱季叶凋落物量比一般年份平均高35.2％ (0.81 t/hm2).而2010年附生苔蘚年凋落量为历年来最低.2010年最旱月的乔木层和灌木层叶面积指数和2005同期相比无显著差异,但是草本层叶面积指数却极显著低于2005年同期.因此,2010年初西南干旱尽管使哀牢山常绿阔叶林旱季落叶增加,但还没有到显著影响冠层叶面积指数的程度.而草本层和附生苔藓的生长则受到了干旱事件的显著影响.此外,哀牢山常绿阔叶林年总凋落量和年降水量显著正相关,而和年均温却不相关,表明该亚热带森林凋落物量主要由降水而非温度决定.     

Landscape-scale sexual segregation in the dry season distribution and resource utilization of elephants in Kruger National Park, South Africa

This study compared the dry season distribution of elephant bull groups and mixed herds and the resources driving these distributions within Kruger National Park, South Africa. It is important to understand what resources drive the distribution of elephants as this may be of relevance to understanding and managing their impact. It is also important to distinguish between resource use by bull groups and mixed herds because their impact on the habitat may differ. Our results indicated that sexual segregation, both in space and in resource selection, did occur in Kruger Park. Bulls roamed more widely in the park, and although their distribution and resource use overlapped with mixed herds, they also occurred in areas that mixed herds apparently did not, or could not, utilize in the dry season. This gave rise to areas used exclusively by bulls but no areas used exclusively by mixed herds. Lower collective feeding requirements as a result of smaller group size, wider habitat tolerance, and increased mobility as a result of bigger body size, as well as conflict avoidance with musth bulls in areas with mixed herds, might have been some of the reasons for bull groups roaming more widely and for the establishment of separate bull areas. Rivers were an important resource driving both the distribution of the mixed herds and bull groups, but with the mixed herds occurring closer to these resource hot spots than the bull groups. Tree cover proved important for mixed herds, probably because of the importance of shade and the higher nutritional requirements of the smaller-sized cows and calves. Artificial waterholes might have opened up previously unutilized areas for bulls in the dry season, especially on the grassy basaltic plains in the north of the park. However, the distribution of the mixed herds suggested that they did not occur in higher densities in areas surrounding waterholes.     

Spatial dynamics of lions and their prey along an environmental gradient

Establishing the ecological determinants of the spatial dynamics of large African savanna mammals is necessary for understanding the cumulative impacts on the suitability and resilience of their natural habitats, of progressive habitat fragmentation and temporal shifts in climate, fire regimes and elephant browsing. Systematic directional gradients and small‐scale spatial dependence were evident in rainfall, herbivore biomass and lion density in the Masai Mara National Reserve during September 1990 to July 1992. Lion density, the biomass of resident and all herbivore species were autocorrelated within 4.3, 4.1 and 3.3 km, respectively, and peaked in areas of relatively low rainfall but higher microtopographic and vegetation heterogeneity and complexity and more diverse drainage systems. Rainfall influenced herbivore biomass and hence lion density non‐linearly and that influence was apparently modified by forage mineral nutrients, structural habitat complexity, degree of drainage and distance to waterpoints. Lion density was related to the biomass of resident herbivores, even after controlling for rainfall and spatial trends. Persistence of the recent decline in Mara woodlands and increasing human population along the reserve–ranch boundary would likely reduce the reserve's lion population because most lions spent the daytime within the vegetation mosaic fringing drainage lines, away from humans and domestic livestock.     

Environmental factors affecting the distribution of African elephants in the Kasigau wildlife corridor,SE Kenya

The African elephant, Loxodonta africana, is under threat from habitat loss, poaching and human–elephant conflict. To mitigate for impact of habitat loss and reduce conflict, connectivity between elephant habitats can be improved through the protection of corridor areas. This study looks at elephant distribution and movement patterns within the Kasigau Wildlife Corridor (KWC) within the Tsavo Conservation Area in South‐east Kenya. Elephant presence data were obtained from observations by rangers during routine patrols across KWC, and were analysed in MaxEnt. The environmental factors predicting elephant distribution and density were tested, as well as the relationship between elephant maximum entropy and the presence and abundance of other wildlife. Seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation, plus presence of waterholes were found to play significant roles in elephant distribution across KWC. Higher elephant densities were not found to correlate with lower densities of other wildlife species; indeed, during the dry seasons, elephant presence was associated with greater wild herbivore densities. Besides illustrating the importance of the KWC for elephant conservation in the Tsavo ecosystem, both as a key corridor and habitat, this study also hopes to highlight the untapped utility of routine ranger patrol data, and encourage the use of such presence‐only data for deducing important knowledge for conservation of biodiversity.     

Plant compositional change over time increases with rainfall in Serengeti grasslands

Previous work from the Plains of Serengeti National Park (SNP) suggested that plant species composition (i.e. the composite measure of species' identities and abundances) is unchanged on the temporal scale of decades ( Belsky 1985 ), raising the possibility that African grazing ecosystems may be resistant to climate change. In this study, grassland plant composition was measured three times between 2000 and 2007 at eight permanent sites spanning the SNP environmental gradient. Confirming previous work, plots in the Serengeti Plains were relatively stable with respect to plant composition through time. In contrast, sites in all other regions of the ecosystem showed greater change in plant species composition during the study. Three factors, annual rainfall, dry season rainfall, and fire frequency, were linearly correlated (all r>0.73) with the amount of composition change at the sites. A path model, which accounted for the strong correlation between annual and dry season rainfall and for the known effect of annual rainfall on fire frequency, was used to elucidate which factors were associated with composition change and which were spuriously correlated. The path model demonstrated that change in plant composition was positively related to annual rainfall, but not dry season rainfall or fire frequency. However, dry season rainfall was positively associated with changes in plant species identity, one component of compositional change, across sites over time. Because climate models predict both increased wet season and decreased dry season rainfall in East Africa, these findings raise uncertainty about how these grasslands will respond to future changes. This study and others ( Belsky 1985 ) suggests that plant assemblages adapted to low rainfall in Serengeti may exhibit compositionally stability, while the same may not be true in regions of higher average rainfall and larger species pools.     

Climate and spatio-temporal variation in the population dynamics of a long distance migrant, the white stork

1. A central question in ecology is to separate the relative contribution of density dependence and stochastic influences to annual fluctuations in population size. Here we estimate the deterministic and stochastic components of the dynamics of different European populations of white stork Ciconia ciconia. We then examined whether annual changes in population size was related to the climate during the breeding period (the 'tap hypothesis' sensu Saether, Sutherland & Engen (2004, Advances in Ecological Research, 35, 185 209) or during the nonbreeding period, especially in the winter areas in Africa (the 'tube hypothesis'). 2. A general characteristic of the population dynamics of this long-distance migrant is small environmental stochasticity and strong density regulation around the carrying capacity with short return times to equilibrium. 3. Annual changes in the size of the eastern European populations were correlated by rainfall in the wintering areas in Africa as well as local weather in the breeding areas just before arrival and in the later part of the breeding season and regional climate variation (North Atlantic Oscillation). This indicates that weather influences the population fluctuations of white storks through losses of sexually mature individuals as well as through an effect on the number of individuals that manages to establish themselves in the breeding population. Thus, both the tap and tube hypothesis explains climate influences on white stork population dynamics. 4. The spatial scale of environmental noise after accounting for the local dynamics was 67 km, suggesting that the strong density dependence reduces the synchronizing effects of climate variation on the population dynamics of white stork. 5. Several climate variables reduced the synchrony of the residual variation in population size after accounting for density dependence and demographic stochasticity, indicating that these climate variables had a synchronizing effect on the population fluctuations. In contrast, other climatic variables acted as desynchronizing agents. 6. Our results illustrate that evaluating the effects of common environmental variables on the spatio-temporal variation in population dynamics require estimates and modelling of their influence on the local dynamics.     

Interaction between seasonal density-dependence structures and length of the seasons explain the geographical structure of the dynamics of voles in Hokkaido: an example of seasonal forcing

The grey-sided vole (Clethrionomys rufocanus) is distributed over the entire island of Hokkaido, Japan, across which it exhibits multi-annual density cycles in only parts of the island (the north-eastern part); in the remaining part of the island, only seasonal density changes occur. Using annual sampling of 189 grey-sided vole populations, we deduced the geographical structure in their second-order density dependence. Building upon our earlier suggestion, we deduce the seasonal density-dependent structure for these populations. Strong direct and delayed density dependence is found to occur during winter, whereas no density dependence is seen during the summer period. The direct density dependence during winter may be seen as a result of food being limited during that season: the delayed density dependence during the winter is consistent with vole-specialized predators (e.g. the least weasel) responding to vole densities so as to have a negative effect on the net growth rate of voles in the following year. We conclude that the observed geographical structure of the population dynamics may be properly seen as a result of the length of the summer in interaction with the differential seasonal density-dependent structure. Altogether, this indicates that the geographical pattern in multi-annual density dynamics in the grey-sided vole may be a result of seasonal forcing.     

The ranging behaviour of a large sexually dimorphic herbivore in response to seasonal and annual environmental variation

The allometric relationships of body size play a principle role in determining how large herbivores respond to the marked spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the savanna biome. Using location data collected over an 8‐year period from five distinct study sites, we investigated the influence of environmental variation (using phenological and rainfall data) on the ranging behaviour of the African elephant (Loxodonta africana), a species that exhibits pronounced sexual dimorphism. Both sexes expanded their annual ranges during years of high rainfall and contracted their ranges during periods of resource scarcity, concurring with the hypothesis that abiotic factors dictate the distribution of large generalist herbivores at the landscape scale. However, female elephant did not exhibit the same consistent response to rainfall at the seasonal scale. Furthermore, male elephant demonstrated a reduction in their daily displacement distances during the dry winter season, and altered their movement rates on the basis of seasonal rainfall. These results suggest that male elephant are able to consistently adapt their movement behaviour according to forage quality and abundance. Smaller‐bodied female elephant on the other hand, are unlikely to exhibit the same flexibility in their ranging behaviour because of their higher relative nutritional demands, lower tolerance to fibrous forage and the social and energetic constraints of group living with juveniles. Our study highlights the major role that body size and sociality plays in the decision making of sexually dimorphic herbivores. These differences can have important implications for effective conservation and management, particularly with regard to demographic (e.g. survival) and ecological (e.g. habitat use) factors.     

Elephant spatial use in wet and dry savannas of southern Africa

The influence of elephants on woody vegetation cover varies from place to place. In part this may be due to the way elephants utilize space across landscapes and within their home ranges in response to the availability and distribution of food. We used location data from 18 cows at six study sites across an east to west rainfall gradient in southern Africa to test whether wet- and dry-season home-range sizes, evenness of space use within seasonal home ranges and range overlap between seasons and between years, differed between wet and dry savannas. We then tested whether the quantity, distribution and seasonal stability in vegetation productivity, a coarse measure of food for elephants, explained differences. Elephants in wet savannas had smaller wet- and dry-season home ranges and also returned to a higher proportion of previously visited grid cells between seasons and between years than elephants living in dry savannas. Wet-season home-range sizes were explained by seasonal vegetation productivity while dry-season home-range sizes were explained by heterogeneity in the distribution of vegetation productivity. The influence of the latter on dry-season home ranges differed among structural vegetation classes. Range overlap between seasons and between years was related to inter-seasonal and inter-annual stability in vegetation productivity, respectively. Evenness of elephant spatial use within home ranges did not differ between savanna types, but it was explained by seasonal vegetation productivity and heterogeneity in the distribution of vegetation productivity during the wet season. Differences in elephant spatial use patterns between wet and dry savannas according to vegetation structure and season may need to be included in the development of site-specific objectives and management approaches for African elephants.     

Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: Predation,density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high‐arctic warming

Climate change is most rapid in the Arctic, posing both benefits and challenges for migratory herbivores. However, population‐dynamic responses to climate change are generally difficult to predict, due to concurrent changes in other trophic levels. Migratory species are also exposed to contrasting climate trends and density regimes over the annual cycle. Thus, determining how climate change impacts their population dynamics requires an understanding of how weather directly or indirectly (through trophic interactions and carryover effects) affects reproduction and survival across migratory stages, while accounting for density dependence. Here, we analyse the overall implications of climate change for a local non‐hunted population of high‐arctic Svalbard barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis, using 28 years of individual‐based data. By identifying the main drivers of reproductive stages (egg production, hatching and fledging) and age‐specific survival rates, we quantify their impact on population growth. Recent climate change in Svalbard enhanced egg production and hatching success through positive effects of advanced spring onset (snow melt) and warmer summers (i.e. earlier vegetation green‐up) respectively. Contrastingly, there was a strong temporal decline in fledging probability due to increased local abundance of the Arctic fox, the main predator. While weather during the non‐breeding season influenced geese through a positive effect of temperature (UK wintering grounds) on adult survival and a positive carryover effect of rainfall (spring stopover site in Norway) on egg production, these covariates showed no temporal trends. However, density‐dependent effects occurred throughout the annual cycle, and the steadily increasing total flyway population size caused negative trends in overwinter survival and carryover effects on egg production. The combination of density‐dependent processes and direct and indirect climate change effects across life history stages appeared to stabilize local population size. Our study emphasizes the need for holistic approaches when studying population‐dynamic responses to global change in migratory species.     

Population demography of frillneck lizards (Chlamydosaurus kingii,Gray 1825) in the wet‐dry tropics of Australia

We explore the effects of biotic and abiotic factors on the population demography of frillneck lizards (Chlamydosaurus kingii) in the Australian wet‐dry tropics. Annual growth rates of males were significantly higher across all body sizes compared to females, resulting in a significant larger maximum body size in males. Both male and female lizards were highly philopatric and 81% of the among‐year recapture distances were less than 200 m. Juvenile and adult frillnecks were subjected to low but highly variable annual survival rates. Both proportion of juveniles and relative proportion of reproductive females showed extensive among‐year variations. No relationship was, however, observed between proportion of gravid females and that of juveniles captured during the subsequent year. High rainfall in January was negatively correlated with recruitment most likely caused by increased egg/embryo mortality due to flooding of nest sites. We therefore suggest that the lack of association between female reproduction and juvenile recruitment was due to the effects of stochastic variation in January rainfall. Lizard numbers increased during the first five years of the study followed by a decline during the subsequent four years. Our analyses show that annual variation in survival constituted the main determinant in driving the annual change in frillneck numbers. Surprisingly, no relationship was observed between fillneck population dynamics and annual variation in juvenile recruitment. We suggest that the 7‐years over which these analyses were conducted were insufficient to detect any significant effects of recruitment on lizard numbers, demonstrating the need for long‐term studies to accurately document vertebrate population demographic processes in areas experiencing stochastic variations rainfall such as the Australian wet‐dry tropics.     

The drinking habits of the Lilian's lovebird and incidents of poisoning at waterholes

Use of poison to kill wildlife is a threat to biodiversity. Lilian's lovebirds Agapornis lilianae are among the fatalities at poisoned waterholes in Liwonde National Park, Malawi. Their population in Liwonde National Park (LNP) represents about 20% of the global population. We investigated the drinking habits of Lilian's lovebird, availability of natural waterholes and occurrence of poisoning incidents in LNP. Results showed Lilian's lovebirds congregate at waterholes in the dry season with flocks ranging from 1 to 100 individuals. Significantly larger flocks were seen in the dry than the wet season. Poisoning incidents/year ranged from 1 to 8 and were highest in the dry season. Lilian's lovebirds were killed at a mean of four poisoning incidents each year between 2000 and 2012. Number of lovebirds found dead at a poisoned pool ranged from 5 to 50 individuals. Currently about 32% of the Lilian's lovebird population is threatened by poisoning. Other species were also noted. There is a need for increased efforts in preventing this lethal activity in LNP.     

Elephants and water provision: what are the management links?

In a recent paper we demonstrated that elephant bull groups and mixed herds exhibited spatial and resource segregation across the Kruger National Park. It was found, inter alia , that both bull groups and mixed herds occurred more frequently closer to rivers than expected if they were randomly distributed, but that only bull groups occurred more frequently closer to the artificial waterholes. Although Chamaillé-Jammes et al. (2007 ) accepted these results, they disagreed with our interpretation regarding the potential effect that closure of artificial waterholes might have. Here we address some of the specific concerns expressed and provide a broader context regarding water provision and elephant management. Although water provision can influence elephant density and distribution, we argue that the effectiveness of surface-water manipulation as a management tool will depend on (1) natural surface-water availability, (2) forage quality, (3) elephant densities, (4) position of a population on its growth trajectory, and (5) management objectives. Even though elephants are water-dependent, the effectiveness of water provision as a management tool will therefore be area- and population-specific and will depend on management objectives.     

The effect of drought on the large mammal populations of Zambezi riverine woodlands

Large mammals were counted in Zambezi alluvial woodlands and on the adjacent ecotone in the north of Mana Pools National Park, Zimbabwe, from April 1981 until October 1989. Densities of all large herbivores on the alluvium in the daytime increased during the dry season. Year-to-year variation was studied by comparing end-of-dry-season densities. Flooding of the Zambezi River, controlled by Kariba Dam 100 km upstream, ceased in 1981 and the densities of all species on the alluvium declined in 1982. Rainfall was low in 1982 and very low in 1983 and 1984. The density of buffalo in the study area declined, owing to high mortality and a change in habitat utilization (buffalo herds spent more time in the south of the park). Densities of other species were high during the drought, but the densities of waterbuck, kudu, eland, bushbuck and warthog declined in 1985. Zebra density declined on the ecotone, but not on the alluvium. The densities of eland and kudu increased in 1986 and 1988, respectively, but the densities of the other species were still low in 1989. Impala density on the alluvium in October was related to rainfall during the preceding wet season and was high in drought years. Elephant density declined after a management cull. Rhinoceros density decreased by > 90% during the 1985/6 wet season, as a result of poaching and captures. The long-term decline in the densities of grazers was probably due primarily to the cessation of flooding by the Zambezi River, rather than to low local rainfall in some years. During the drought, the large grazers (e.g. buffalo) died before the smaller grazers (e.g. warthog). Waterbuck density declined less than the density of other grazers, because waterbuck could cross to vegetated sandbanks in the Zambezi River.     

The effects of rainfall on different components of seasonal fecundity in a tropical forest passerine

Seasonal fecundity is a composite metric that is determined by component parameters such as clutch size, nest survival and re‐nesting probability. Many of these component parameters are known to vary with environmental conditions, in particular rainfall prior to or during the breeding season. In some species, seasonal fecundity is positively related to rainfall, but little is known about which component parameters of seasonal fecundity respond most strongly to rainfall. We used intensive nest monitoring of a multi‐brooded tropical forest passerine, the Montserrat Oriole Icterus oberi, to examine the effects of rainfall during the pre‐breeding season on component parameters of annual fecundity. We monitored all nests of a total of 42 pairs over 5 years in which rainfall varied substantially. We then related clutch size, nest survival, onset and length of the breeding season, re‐nesting probability and re‐nesting interval to pre‐breeding season rainfall using generalized linear mixed models that accounted for random variation across sites and individual pairs, and incorporated other variables known to affect the response. Higher pre‐breeding season rainfall led to an increase in clutch size and a decrease in re‐nesting interval, but nest survival, re‐nesting probability and length of the breeding season were not affected by variation in rainfall. The onset of the breeding season was delayed in very dry years. We conclude that higher rainfall is likely to increase food availability and thus body condition of female Montserrat Orioles, leading to an increase in fecundity due to larger clutch sizes.