Melioidosis–a disease of socioeconomic disadvantage

BackgroundThere is growing recognition of the contribution of the social determinants of health to the burden of many infectious diseases. However, the relationship between socioeconomic status and the incidence and outcome of melioidosis is incompletely defined.MethodsAll residents of Far North Queensland, tropical Australia with culture-proven melioidosis between January 1998 and December 2020 were eligible for the study. Their demographics, comorbidities and socioeconomic status were correlated with their clinical course. Socioeconomic status was determined using the Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) Index of Relative Socio-economic Disadvantage score, a measure of socioeconomic disadvantage developed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Socioeconomic disadvantage was defined as residence in a region with a SEIFA score in the lowest decile in Australia.Results321 eligible individuals were diagnosed with melioidosis during the study period, 174 (54.2%) identified as Indigenous Australians; 223/321 (69.5%) were bacteraemic, 85/321 (26.5%) required Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission and 37/321 (11.5%) died. 156/321 (48.6%) were socioeconomically disadvantaged, compared with 56603/269002 (21.0%) of the local general population (p<0.001). Socioeconomically disadvantaged patients were younger, more likely to be female, Indigenous, diabetic or have renal disease. They were also more likely to die prior to hospital discharge (26/156 (16.7%) versus 11/165 (6.7%), p = 0.002) and to die at a younger age (median (IQR) age: 50 (38–68) versus 65 (59–81) years, p = 0.02). In multivariate analysis that included age, Indigenous status, the presence of bacteraemia, ICU admission and the year of hospitalisation, only socioeconomic disadvantage (odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval (CI)): 2.49 (1.16–5.35), p = 0.02) and ICU admission (OR (95% CI): 4.79 (2.33–9.86), p<0.001) were independently associated with death.ConclusionMelioidosis is disease of socioeconomic disadvantage. A more holistic approach to the delivery of healthcare which addresses the social determinants of health is necessary to reduce the burden of this life-threatening disease.     

Hospital Utilisation in Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Infants under 12 Months of Age in Western Australia,Prospective Population Based Data Linkage Study

BackgroundIndigenous infants (infants aged under 12 months) have the highest hospital admission and emergency department presentation risks in Australia. However, there have been no recent reports comparing hospital utilisation between Indigenous and non-Indigenous infants.MethodsOur primary objective was to use a large prospective population-based linked dataset to assess the risk of all-cause hospital admission and emergency department presentation in Indigenous compared to non-Indigenous infants in Western Australia (WA). Secondary objectives were to assess the effect of socio-economic status (Index of Relative Socio-Economic Disadvantage [IRSD]) on hospital utilisation and to understand the causes of hospital utilisation.FindingsThere were 3,382 (5.4%) Indigenous and 59,583 (94.6%) non-Indigenous live births in WA from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2011. Indigenous infants had a greater risk of hospital admission (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.90, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.77–2.04, p = <0.001) and emergency department presentation (aOR 2.15, 95% CI 1.98–2.33, p = <0.001) compared to non-Indigenous infants. Fifty nine percent (59.0%) of admissions in Indigenous children were classified as preventable compared to 31.2% of admissions in non-Indigenous infants (aOR 2.12, 95% CI 1.88–2.39). The risk of hospital admission in the most disadvantaged (IRSD 1) infants in the total cohort (35.7%) was similar to the risk in the least disadvantaged (IRSD 5) infants (30.6%) (aOR 1.04, 95% CI 0.96–1.13, p = 0.356).InterpretationWA Indigenous infants have much higher hospital utilisation than non Indigenous infants. WA health services should prioritise Indigenous infants regardless of their socio economic status or where they live.     

Trends in the Prevalence of Depression in Hospitalized Patients with Type 2 Diabetes in Spain: Analysis of Hospital Discharge Data from 2001 to 2011

BackgroundThis study aims to describe trends in the prevalence of depression among hospitalized patients with type 2 diabetes in Spain, 2001–2011.MethodsWe selected patients with a discharge diagnosis of type 2 diabetes using national hospital discharge data. Discharges were grouped by depression status. Prevalence of depression globally and according to primary diagnoses based on the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) were analyzed. We calculated length of stay (LOHS) and in-hospital mortality (IHM). Multivariate analysis was adjusted by age, year and comorbidity.ResultsFrom 2001 to 2011, 4,723,338 discharges with type 2 diabetes were identified (4.93% with depression). Prevalence of depression in diabetic patients increased from 3.54% in 2001 to 5.80% in 2011 (p<0.05). The prevalence of depression was significantly higher in women than in men in each year studied and increased from 5.22% in 2001 to 9.24% in 2011 (p<0.01). The highest prevalence was observed in the youngest age group (35–59 years). The median LOHS decreased significantly over this period. Men with diabetes and depression had higher IHM than women in all the years studied (p<0.05). Older age and greater comorbidity were significantly associated with a higher risk of dying, among diabetic patients with concomitant depression.ConclusionsPrevalence of depression increased significantly among hospitalized diabetic patients from 2001 to 2011 even if the health profile and LOHS have improved over this period. Programs targeted at preventing depression among persons with diabetes should be reinforced in Spain.     

Effectiveness of a multifaceted prevention programme for melioidosis in diabetics (PREMEL): A stepped-wedge cluster-randomised controlled trial

BackgroundMelioidosis, an often-fatal infectious disease caused by the environmental Gram-negative bacillus Burkholderia pseudomallei, is endemic in tropical countries. Diabetes mellitus and environmental exposure are important risk factors for melioidosis acquisition. We aim to evaluate the effectiveness of a multifaceted prevention programme for melioidosis in diabetics in northeast Thailand.Methodology/Principal findingsFrom April 2014 to December 2018, we conducted a stepped-wedge cluster-randomized controlled behaviour change trial in 116 primary care units (PCUs) in Ubon Ratchathani province, northeast Thailand. The intervention was a behavioural support group session to help diabetic patients adopt recommended behaviours, including wearing rubber boots and drinking boiled water. We randomly allocated the PCUs to receive the intervention starting in March 2016, 2017 and 2018. All diabetic patients were contacted by phone yearly, and the final follow-up was December 2018. Two primary outcomes were hospital admissions involving infectious diseases and culture-confirmed melioidosis. Of 9,056 diabetics enrolled, 6,544 (72%) received a behavioural support group session. During 38,457 person-years of follow-up, we observed 2,195 (24%) patients having 3,335 hospital admissions involved infectious diseases, 80 (0.8%) melioidosis, and 485 (5%) deaths. In the intention-to-treat analysis, implementation of the intervention was not associated with primary outcomes. In the per-protocol analysis, patients who received a behavioural support group session had lower incidence rates of hospital admissions involving infectious diseases (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.89; 95%CI 0.80–0.99, p = 0.03) and of all-cause mortality (IRR 0.54; 95%CI 0.43–0.68, p<0.001). However, the incidence rate of culture-confirmed melioidosis was not significantly lower (IRR 0.96, 95%CI 0.46–1.99, p = 0.66).Conclusions/SignificanceClear benefits of this multifaceted prevention programme for melioidosis were not observed. More compelling invitations for the intervention, modification of or addition to the behaviour change techniques used, and more frequent intervention may be needed.Trial registrationThis trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT02089152","term_id":"NCT02089152"}}NCT02089152.     

Intravenous Therapy Duration and Outcomes in Melioidosis: A New Treatment Paradigm

BackgroundInternational melioidosis treatment guidelines recommend a minimum 10 to 14 days’ intravenous antibiotic therapy (intensive phase), followed by 3 to 6 months’ oral therapy (eradication phase). This approach is associated with rates of relapse, defined as recurrence following the eradication phase, that can exceed 5%. Rates of recrudescence, defined as recurrence during the eradication phase, have not previously been reported. In response to low eradication phase completion rates in Australia, a local guideline has evolved over the last ten years recommending a longer minimum intensive phase duration for many cases of melioidosis.

Methodology/ Principal Findings

This retrospective cohort study reviews antibiotic duration for the first episode of care for all patients diagnosed with melioidosis and surviving the intensive phase during a recent three year period in the tropical north of Australia’s Northern Territory; we also review adherence to the current local guideline and treatment outcomes. Of 215 first episodes of melioidosis surviving the intensive phase, the median (interquartile range) intensive phase duration was 26 (14-34) days. One hundred and eight (50.2%) patients completed eradication therapy; 58 (27.0%) patients took no eradication therapy. At 28 months’ follow-up, one (0.5%) relapse and eleven (5.1%) recrudescences had occurred. On exact logistic regression analysis, the only independent risk factors for recrudescence were self-discharge during the intensive phase (odds ratio 6.2 [95% confidence interval 1.2-30.0]) and septic shock (odds ratio 5.3 [95% confidence interval 1.1-25.7]).

Conclusions/ Significance

Relapsed melioidosis is rare in patients who receive a minimum intensive phase duration specified by our guideline and extended according to clinical progress. Recrudescence rates may improve with reductions in rates of self-discharge. Given the low relapse rate despite a high rate of eradication therapy non-adherence, the duration and necessity of eradication therapy for different patients after guideline-concordant intensive therapy should be evaluated further.     

High risk of early sub-therapeutic penicillin concentrations after intramuscular benzathine penicillin G injections in Ethiopian children and adults with rheumatic heart disease

IntroductionIntramuscular benzathine penicillin G (BPG) injections are a cornerstone of secondary prophylaxis to prevent acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD). Uncertainties regarding inter-ethnic and preparation variability, and target exposure profiles of BPG injection are key knowledge gaps for RHD control.MethodsTo evaluate BPG pharmacokinetics (PK) in patients receiving 4-weekly doses in Ethiopia, we conducted a prospective cohort study of ARF/RHD patients attending cardiology outpatient clinics. Serum samples were collected weekly for one month after injection and assayed with a liquid chromatography-mass spectroscopy assay. Concentration-time datasets for BPG were analyzed by nonlinear mixed effects modelling using NONMEM.ResultsA total of 190 penicillin concentration samples from 74 patients were included in the final PK model. The median age, weight, BMI was 21 years, 47 kg and 18 kg/m², respectively. When compared with estimates derived from Indigenous Australian patients, the estimate for median (95% confidence interval) volume of distribution (V/F) was lower (54.8 [43.9–66.3] l.70kg^-1) whilst the absorption half-life (t_1/2-abs2) was longer (12.0 [8.75–17.7] days). The median (IQR) percentage of time where the concentrations remained above 20 ng/mL and 10 ng/mL within the 28-day treatment cycle was 42.5% (27.5–60) and 73% (58.5–99), respectively.ConclusionsThe majority of Ethiopian patients receiving BPG as secondary prophylaxis to prevent RHD do not attain target concentrations for more than two weeks during each 4-weekly injection cycle, highlighting the limitations of current BPG strategies. Between-population variation, together with PK differences between different preparations may be important considerations for ARF/RHD control programs.     

The Synergistic Effect of Functional Status and Comorbidity Burden on Mortality: A 16-Year Survival Analysis

Objectives

The relationship between disability and comorbidity on mortality is widely perceived as additive in clinical models of frailty.

Design

National data were retrospectively extracted from medical records of community hospital.

Data Sources

There were of 12,804 acutely-disabled patients admitted for inpatient rehabilitation in Singapore rehabilitation community hospitals from 1996 through 2005 were followed up for death till 31 December 2011.

Outcome Measure

Cox proportional-hazards regression to assess the interaction of comorbidity and disability at discharge on all-cause mortality.

Results

During a median follow-up of 10.9 years, there were 8,565 deaths (66.9%). The mean age was 73.0 (standard deviation: 11.5) years. Independent risk factors of mortality were higher comorbidity (p<0.001), severity of disability at discharge (p<0.001), being widowed (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.38, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.25–1.53), low socioeconomic status (aHR:1.40, 95%CI:1.29–1.53), discharge to nursing home (aHR:1.14, 95%CI:1.05–1.22) and re-admission into acute care (aHR:1.54, 95%CI:1.45–1.65). In the main effects model, those with high comorbidity had an aHR = 2.41 (95%CI:2.13–2.72) whereas those with total disability had an aHR = 2.28 (95%CI:2.12–2.46). In the interaction model, synergistic interaction existed between comorbidity and disability (p<0.001) where those with high comorbidity and total disability had much higher aHR = 6.57 (95%CI:5.15–8.37).

Conclusions

Patients with greater comorbidity and disability at discharge, discharge to nursing home or re-admission into acute care, lower socioeconomic status and being widowed had higher mortality risk. Our results identified predictive variables of mortality that map well onto the frailty cascade model. Increasing comorbidity and disability interacted synergistically to increase mortality risk.     

Community-based prevalence of rheumatic heart disease in rural Ethiopia: Five-year follow-up

BackgroundAs little is known about the prevalence and clinical progression of subclinical (latent) rheumatic heart disease (RHD) in sub-Saharan Africa, we report the results of a 5 year follow-up of a community based, echocardiographic study of the disease, originally carried out in a rural area around Jimma, Ethiopia.MethodsIndividuals with evidence of RHD detected during the baseline study as well as controls and their family members were screened with a short questionnaire together with transthoracic echocardiography.ResultsOf 56 individuals with RHD (37 definite and 19 borderline) in the original study, 36 (26 definite and 10 borderline) were successfully located 57.3 (range 44.9–70.7) months later. At follow-up two thirds of the definite cases still had definite disease; while a third had regressed. Approximately equal numbers of the borderline cases had progressed and regressed. Features of RHD had appeared in 5 of the 60 controls. There was an increased risk of RHD in the family relatives of borderline and definite cases (3.8 and 4.0 times respectively), notably among siblings. Compliance with penicillin prophylaxis was very poor.ConclusionsWe show the persistence of echocardiographically demonstrable RHD in a rural sub-Saharan population. Both progression and regression of the disease were found; however, the majority of the individuals who had definite features of RHD had evidence of continuing RHD lesions five years later. There was an increased risk of RHD in the family relatives of borderline and definite cases, notably among siblings. The findings highlight the problems faced in addressing the problem of RHD in the rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa. They add to the evidence that community-based interventions for RHD will be required, together with appropriate ways of identifying active disease, achieving adequate penicillin prophylaxis and developing vaccines for primary prevention.     

Development,Validation and Deployment of a Real Time 30 Day Hospital Readmission Risk Assessment Tool in the Maine Healthcare Information Exchange

ObjectivesIdentifying patients at risk of a 30-day readmission can help providers design interventions, and provide targeted care to improve clinical effectiveness. This study developed a risk model to predict a 30-day inpatient hospital readmission for patients in Maine, across all payers, all diseases and all demographic groups.MethodsOur objective was to develop a model to determine the risk for inpatient hospital readmission within 30 days post discharge. All patients within the Maine Health Information Exchange (HIE) system were included. The model was retrospectively developed on inpatient encounters between January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2012 from 24 randomly chosen hospitals, and then prospectively validated on inpatient encounters from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2013 using all HIE patients.ResultsA risk assessment tool partitioned the entire HIE population into subgroups that corresponded to probability of hospital readmission as determined by a corresponding positive predictive value (PPV). An overall model c-statistic of 0.72 was achieved. The total 30-day readmission rates in low (score of 0–30), intermediate (score of 30–70) and high (score of 70–100) risk groupings were 8.67%, 24.10% and 74.10%, respectively. A time to event analysis revealed the higher risk groups readmitted to a hospital earlier than the lower risk groups. Six high-risk patient subgroup patterns were revealed through unsupervised clustering. Our model was successfully integrated into the statewide HIE to identify patient readmission risk upon admission and daily during hospitalization or for 30 days subsequently, providing daily risk score updates.ConclusionsThe risk model was validated as an effective tool for predicting 30-day readmissions for patients across all payer, disease and demographic groups within the Maine HIE. Exposing the key clinical, demographic and utilization profiles driving each patient’s risk of readmission score may be useful to providers in developing individualized post discharge care plans.     

Fatal opioid overdoses during and shortly after hospital admissions in England: A case-crossover study

BackgroundHospital patients who use illicit opioids such as heroin may use drugs during an admission or leave the hospital in order to use drugs. There have been reports of patients found dead from drug poisoning on the hospital premises or shortly after leaving the hospital. This study examines whether hospital admission and discharge are associated with increased risk of opioid-related death.Methods and findingsWe conducted a case-crossover study of opioid-related deaths in England. Our study included 13,609 deaths between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2019 among individuals aged 18 to 64. For each death, we sampled 5 control days from the period 730 to 28 days before death. We used data from the national Hospital Episode Statistics database to determine the time proximity of deaths and control days to hospital admissions. We estimated the association between hospital admission and opioid-related death using conditional logistic regression, with a reference category of time neither admitted to the hospital nor within 14 days of discharge. A total of 236/13,609 deaths (1.7%) occurred following drug use while admitted to the hospital. The risk during hospital admissions was similar or lower than periods neither admitted to the hospital nor recently discharged, with odds ratios 1.03 (95% CI 0.87 to 1.21; p = 0.75) for the first 14 days of an admission and 0.41 (95% CI 0.30 to 0.56; p < 0.001) for days 15 onwards. 1,088/13,609 deaths (8.0%) occurred in the 14 days after discharge. The risk of opioid-related death increased in this period, with odds ratios of 4.39 (95% CI 3.75 to 5.14; p < 0.001) on days 1 to 2 after discharge and 2.09 (95% CI 1.92 to 2.28; p < 0.001) on days 3 to 14. 11,629/13,609 deaths (85.5%) did not occur close to a hospital admission, and the remaining 656/13,609 deaths (4.8%) occurred in hospital following admission due to drug poisoning. Risk was greater for patients discharged from psychiatric admissions, those who left the hospital against medical advice, and those leaving the hospital after admissions of 7 days or more. The main limitation of the method is that it does not control for time-varying health or drug use within individuals; therefore, hospital admissions coinciding with high-risk periods may in part explain the results.ConclusionsDischarge from the hospital is associated with an acute increase in the risk of opioid-related death, and 1 in 14 opioid-related deaths in England happens in the 2 weeks after the hospital discharge. This supports interventions that prevent early discharge and improve linkage with community drug treatment and harm reduction services.

In a case-crossover study, Dan Lewer and coauthors investigate factors associated with fatal opioid overdoses during and shortly after hospital admissions in England.     

Geographical distribution of Burkholderia pseudomallei in soil in Myanmar

BackgroundBurkholderia pseudomallei is a Gram-negative bacterium found in soil and water in many tropical countries. It causes melioidosis, a potentially fatal infection first described in 1911 in Myanmar. Melioidosis is a common cause of sepsis and death in South and South-east Asia, but it is rarely diagnosed in Myanmar. We conducted a nationwide soil study to identify areas where B. pseudomallei is present.Methodology/Principal findingsWe collected soil samples from 387 locations in all 15 states and regions of Myanmar between September 2017 and June 2019. At each site, three samples were taken at each of three different depths (30, 60 and 90 cm) and were cultured for B. pseudomallei separately, along with a pooled sample from each site (i.e. 10 cultures per site). We used a negative binomial regression model to assess associations between isolation of B. pseudomallei and environmental factors (season, soil depth, soil type, land use and climate zones). B. pseudomallei was isolated in 7 of 15 states and regions. Of the 387 sites, 31 (8%) had one or more positive samples and of the 3,870 samples cultured, 103 (2.7%) tested positive for B. pseudomallei. B. pseudomallei was isolated more frequently during the monsoon season [RR-2.28 (95% CI: 0.70–7.38)] and less in the hot dry season [RR-0.70 (95% CI: 0.19–2.56)] compared to the cool dry season, and in the tropical monsoon climate zone [RR-2.26; 95% CI (0.21–6.21)] compared to the tropical dry winter climate zone. However, these associations were not statistically significant. B. pseudomallei was detected at all three depths and from various soil types (clay, silt and sand). Isolation was higher in agricultural land (2.2%), pasture land (8.5%) and disused land (5.8%) than in residential land (0.4%), but these differences were also not significant.Conclusion/SignificanceThis study confirms a widespread distribution of B. pseudomallei in Myanmar. Clinical studies should follow to obtain a better picture of the burden of melioidosis in Myanmar.     

Evaluation of antigen-detecting and antibody-detecting diagnostic test combinations for diagnosing melioidosis

BackgroundMelioidosis, an infectious disease caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei, is endemic in many tropical developing countries and has a high mortality. Here we evaluated combinations of a lateral flow immunoassay (LFI) detecting B. pseudomallei capsular polysaccharide (CPS) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) detecting antibodies against hemolysin co-regulated protein (Hcp1) or O-polysaccharide (OPS) for diagnosing melioidosis.Methodology/Principal findingsWe conducted a cohort-based case-control study. Both cases and controls were derived from a prospective observational study of patients presenting with community-acquired infections and sepsis in northeast Thailand (Ubon-sepsis). Cases included 192 patients with a clinical specimen culture positive for B. pseudomallei. Controls included 502 patients who were blood culture positive for Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli or Klebsiella pneumoniae or were polymerase chain reaction assay positive for malaria or dengue. Serum samples collected within 24 hours of admission were stored and tested using a CPS-LFI, Hcp1-ELISA and OPS-ELISA. When assessing diagnostic tests in combination, results were considered positive if either test was positive. We selected ELISA cut-offs corresponding to a specificity of 95%. Using a positive cut-off OD of 2.912 for Hcp1-ELISA, the combination of the CPS-LFI and Hcp1-ELISA had a sensitivity of 67.7% (130/192 case patients) and a specificity of 95.0% (477/502 control patients). The sensitivity of the combination (67.7%) was higher than that of the CPS-LFI alone (31.3%, p<0.001) and that of Hcp1-ELISA alone (53.6%, p<0.001). A similar phenomenon was also observed for the combination of CPS-LFI and OPS-ELISA. In case patients, positivity of the CPS-LFI was associated with a short duration of symptoms, high modified Sequential (sepsis-related) Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, bacteraemia and mortality outcome, while positivity of Hcp1-ELISA was associated with a longer duration of symptoms, low modified SOFA score, non-bacteraemia and survival outcome.Conclusions/SignificanceA combination of antigen-antibody diagnostic tests increased the sensitivity of melioidosis diagnosis over individual tests while preserving high specificity. Point-of-care tests for melioidosis based on the use of combination assays should be further developed and evaluated.     

Valor pronóstico del diagnóstico principal en ancianos ingresados en una unidad geriátrica de agudos al alta y al año

ObjectiveTo analyse the relationship between the primary diagnosis on admission to an Acute Geriatric Unit (AGU) and the risk of hospital mortality and one year after dischargeMaterial and methodsA longitudinal study was conducted on patients admitted to the Central Hospital AGU Red Cross in Madrid in 2009. The admission diagnosis was grouped by Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs). The date of death was collected from the medical charts and the National Death Index Ministry of Health report. The main outcome of study was the association between diagnoses on admission and functional impairment at discharge (measured as a loss of 10 or more points between the Barthel Index at discharge and that on admission), mortality during hospitalization, at 3 months and one year after discharge. The multivariate analysis was adjusted for age, sex, comorbidity, functional and cognitive status, and serum albumin.ResultsThe study included1147 patients, with a mean age of 86.7 years (SD ± 6.7), and 66% were women. During admission, 10.1% of patients died and 36.6% had functional impairment at discharge. After discharge, 25.5% died at 3 months, and 42.2% at one year. The distribution of the primary diagnoses at admission (between parentheses hospital mortality and at year) were heart failure, 21.4% (8.1% and 37.4%), pneumonia,13.3% (12.3% and 46.4%), and aspiration pneumonia, 4.7% (27.5%, y 71%), respiratory diseases,13.3% (6.6% and 38.2%), urinary infection,10.2% (5.1% and 42.7%), and stroke (excluding AIT), 9.9% (13.3% and 46.9%). In the multivariate analysis, only admissions due to aspiration pneumonia were independently associated with increased risk of hospital mortality (odds ratio, 2.23; 95% CI = 1.13 to 44.42), and stroke with increased risk of functional impairment at discharge (odds ratio, 6.01; 95% CI = 3.42-10.57). No diagnosis was independently associated with increased risk of death at 3 months and at yearConclusionsAdmission from aspiration pneumonia carries an increased risk of death in elderly patients hospitalised for acute medical conditions. After discharge, the risk of death must be attributed to factors other than the admission diagnosis     

Anti-chikungunya virus seroprevalence in Indigenous groups in the São Francisco Valley,Brazil

BackgroundChikungunya fever (CHIKF) is a serious public health problem with a high rate of infection and chronic disabling manifestations that has affected more than 2 million people worldwide since 2005. In spite of this, epidemiological data on vulnerable groups such as Indigenous people are scarce, making it difficult to implement public policies in order to prevent this disease and assist these populations.ObjectiveTo describe the serological and epidemiological profile of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in two Indigenous populations in Northeast Brazil, as well as in an urbanized control community, and to explore associations between CHIKV and anthropometric variables in these populations.Methodology/Principal findingsThis is a cross-sectional ancillary study of the Project of Atherosclerosis among Indigenous Populations (PAI) that included people 30 to 70 years old, recruited from two Indigenous tribes (the less urbanized Fulni-ô and the more urbanized Truká people) and an urbanized non-Indigenous control group from the same area. Subjects underwent clinical evaluation and were tested for anti-CHIKV IgG by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Serological profile was described according to ethnicity, sex, and age. The study population included 433 individuals distributed as follows: 109 (25·2%) Truká, 272 (62·8%) Fulni-ô, and 52 (12%) from the non-Indigenous urbanized control group. Overall prevalence of CHIKV IgG in the study sample was 49.9% (216; 95% CI: 45·1–54·7). When the sample was stratified, positive CHIKV IgG was distributed as follows: no individuals in the Truká group, 78·3% (213/272; 95% CI: 72·9–83·1) in the Fulni-ô group, and 5.8% (3/52; 95% CI: 1.21–16) in the control group.Conclusions/SignificancePositive tests for CHIKV showed a very high prevalence in a traditional Indigenous population, in contrast to the absence of anti-CHIKV serology in the Truká people, who are more urbanized with respect to physical landscape, socio-cultural, and historical aspects, as well as a low prevalence in the non-Indigenous control group, although all groups are located in the same area.     

Cervical Abnormalities Are More Common among Indigenous than Other Australian Women: A Retrospective Record-Linkage Study, 2000–2011

Indigenous Australian women have much higher incidence of cervical cancer compared to non-Indigenous women. Despite an organised cervical screening program introduced 25 years ago, a paucity of Indigenous-identified data in Pap Smear Registers remains. Prevalence of cervical abnormalities detected among the screened Indigenous population has not previously been reported. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of population-based linked health records for 1,334,795 female Queensland residents aged 20–69 years who had one or more Pap smears during 2000–2011; from linked hospital records 23,483 were identified as Indigenous. Prevalence was calculated separately for Indigenous and non-Indigenous women, for cytology-detected low-grade (cLGA) and high-grade abnormalities (cHGA), and histologically confirmed high-grade abnormalities (hHGA). Odds ratios (OR) were estimated from logistic regression analysis. In 2010–2011 the prevalence of hHGA among Indigenous women (16.6 per 1000 women screened, 95% confidence interval [CI] 14.6–18.9) was twice that of non-Indigenous women (7.5 per 1000 women screened, CI 7.3–7.7). Adjusted for age, area-level disadvantage and place of residence, Indigenous women had higher prevalence of cLGA (OR 1.4, CI 1.3–1.4), cHGA (OR 2.2, CI 2.1–2.3) and hHGA (OR 2.0, CI 1.9–2.1). Our findings show that Indigenous women recorded on the Pap Smear Register have much higher prevalence for cLGA, cHGA and hHGA compared to non-Indigenous women. The renewed cervical screening program, to be implemented in 2017, offers opportunities to reduce the burden of abnormalities and invasive cancer among Indigenous women and address long-standing data deficiencies.     

Derivation and validation of an index to predict early death or unplanned readmission after discharge from hospital to the community

Background

Readmissions to hospital are common, costly and often preventable. An easy-to-use index to quantify the risk of readmission or death after discharge from hospital would help clinicians identify patients who might benefit from more intensive post-discharge care. We sought to derive and validate an index to predict the risk of death or unplanned readmission within 30 days after discharge from hospital to the community.

Methods

In a prospective cohort study, 48 patient-level and admission-level variables were collected for 4812 medical and surgical patients who were discharged to the community from 11 hospitals in Ontario. We used a split-sample design to derive and validate an index to predict the risk of death or nonelective readmission within 30 days after discharge. This index was externally validated using administrative data in a random selection of 1 000 000 Ontarians discharged from hospital between 2004 and 2008.

Results

Of the 4812 participating patients, 385 (8.0%) died or were readmitted on an unplanned basis within 30 days after discharge. Variables independently associated with this outcome (from which we derived the nmemonic “LACE”) included length of stay (“L”); acuity of the admission (“A”); comorbidity of the patient (measured with the Charlson comorbidity index score) (“C”); and emergency department use (measured as the number of visits in the six months before admission) (“E”). Scores using the LACE index ranged from 0 (2.0% expected risk of death or urgent readmission within 30 days) to 19 (43.7% expected risk). The LACE index was discriminative (C statistic 0.684) and very accurate (Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic 14.1, p = 0.59) at predicting outcome risk.

Interpretation

The LACE index can be used to quantify risk of death or unplanned readmission within 30 days after discharge from hospital. This index can be used with both primary and administrative data. Further research is required to determine whether such quantification changes patient care or outcomes.Readmission to hospital and death are adverse patient outcomes that are serious, common and costly.^1,2 Several studies suggest that focused care after discharge can improve post-discharge outcomes.^3–7 Being able to accurately predict the risk of poor outcomes after hospital discharge would allow health care workers to focus post-discharge interventions on patients who are at highest risk of poor post-discharge outcomes. Further, policy-makers have expressed interest in either penalizing hospitals with relatively high rates of readmission or rewarding hospitals with relatively low expected rates.⁸ To implement this approach, a validated method of standardizing readmission rates is needed.⁹Two validated models for predicting risk of readmission after hospital discharge have been published.^10,11 However, these models are impractical to clinicians. Both require area-level information (e.g., neighbourhood socio-economic status and community-specific rates of admission) that is not readily available. Getting this information requires access to detailed tables, thereby making the model impractical. Second, both models are so complex that risk estimates cannot be attained from them without the aid of special software. Although these models have been used by health-system planners in the United Kingdom, we are unaware of any clinicians who use them when preparing patients for hospital discharge.Our primary objective was to derive and validate a clinically useful index to quantify the risk of early death or unplanned readmission among patients discharged from hospital to the community.