Pushed to the limit: consequences of climate change for the Araucariaceae: a relictual rain forest family

Background and Aims

Under predicted climate change scenarios, increased temperatures are likely to predispose trees to leaf and other tissue damage, resulting in plant death and contraction of already narrow distribution ranges in many relictual species. The effects of predicted upward temperatures may be further exacerbated by changes in rainfall patterns and damage caused by frosts on trees that have been insufficiently cold-hardened. The Araucariaceae is a relictual family and the seven species found in Australia have limited natural distributions characterized by low frost intensity and frequency, and warm summer temperatures. The temperature limits for these species were determined in order to help understand how such species will fare in a changing climate.

Methods

Experiments were conducted using samples from representative trees of the Araucariaceae species occurring in Australia, Agathis (A. atropurpurea, A. microstachya and A. robusta), Arauacaria (A. bidwilli, A. cunninghamii and A. heterophylla) and Wollemia nobilis. Samples were collected from plants grown in a common garden environment. Lower and higher temperature limits were determined by subjecting detached winter-hardened leaves to temperatures from 0 to –17 °C and summer-exposed leaves to 25 to 63 °C, then measuring the efficiency of photosystem II (F_v/F_m) and visually rating leaf damage. The exotherm, a sharp rise in temperature indicating the point of ice nucleation within the cells of the leaf, was measured on detached leaves of winter-hardened and summer temperature-exposed leaves.

Key Results

Lower temperature limits (indicated by FT₅₀, the temperature at which PSII efficiency is 50 %, and LT₅₀ the temperature at which 50 % visual leaf damage occurred) were approx. –5·5 to –7·5 °C for A. atropurpurea, A. microstachya and A. heterophylla, approx. –7 to –9 °C for A. robusta, A. bidwillii and A. cunninghamii, and –10·5 to –11 °C for W. nobilis. High temperature damage began at 47·5 °C for W. nobilis, and occurred in the range 48·5–52 °C for A. bidwillii and A. cunninghamii, and in the range 50·5–53·5 °C for A. robusta, A. microstachya and A. heterophylla. Winter-hardened leaves had ice nucleation temperatures of –5·5 °C or lower, with W. nobilis the lowest at –6·8 °C. All species had significantly higher ice nucleation temperatures in summer, with A. atropurpurea and A. heterophylla forming ice in the leaf at temperatures >3 °C higher in summer than in winter. Wollemia nobilis had lower FT₅₀ and LT₅₀ values than its ice nucleation temperature, indicating that the species has a degree of ice tolerance.

Conclusions

While lower temperature limits in the Australian Araucariaceae are generally unlikely to affect their survival in wild populations during normal winters, unseasonal frosts may have devastating effects on tree survival. Extreme high temperatures are not common in the areas of natural occurrence, but upward temperature shifts, in combination with localized radiant heating, may increase the heat experienced within a canopy by at least 10 °C and impact on tree survival, and may contribute to range contraction. Heat stress may explain why many landscape plantings of W. nobilis have failed in hotter areas of Australia.     

Recruitment bottlenecks in the rare Australian conifer Wollemia nobilis

Seedling survival plays a critical role in maintaining a supply of potential recruits. We examined seedling recruitment, survival and growth in Wollemia nobilis, a rare, long-lived Australian conifer. Wollemia nobilis seedlings and juveniles were monitored for 16 years (1996–2011). While W. nobilis can recruit from seed and, unlike most conifers, persist through resprouting, seed-based recruitment was the primary focus of this study. Sixty-five per cent of new seedlings died within their first year and only 7 % persisted for the 16-year monitoring period. However, 44 % of established juvenile plants (of unknown age at the beginning of the study) persisted throughout the 16-year monitoring period. Growth of seedlings and juveniles was very slow; growth estimates for most individuals had 95 % confidence intervals that included zero. The recruitment strategy of W. nobilis may be to maintain a slow-growing juvenile bank—a strategy typical of other shade-tolerant rainforest trees, including other Araucariaceae. Seedling recruitment in W. nobilis may act together with resprouting to maintain the population.     

An anatomical assessment of branch abscission and branch-base hydraulic architecture in the endangered Wollemia nobilis

Background and Aims: The branch-base xylem structure of the endangered Wollemia nobiliswas anatomically investigated. Wollemia nobilis is probablythe only extant tree species that produces only first-orderbranches and where all branches are cleanly abscised. An investigationwas carried out to see if these unusual features might influencebranch-base xylem structure and water supply to the foliage. Methods: The xylem was sectioned at various distances along the branchbases of 6-year-old saplings. Huber values and relative theoreticalhydraulic conductivities were calculated for various regionsof the branch base. Key Results: The most proximal branch base featured a pronounced xylem constriction.The constriction had only 14–31 % (average 21 %)of the cross-sectional area and 20–42 % (average28 %) of the theoretical hydraulic conductivity of themore distal branch xylem. Wollemia nobilis had extremely lowHuber values for a conifer. Conclusions: The branch-base xylem constriction would appear to facilitatebranch abscission, while the associated Huber values show thatW. nobilis supplies a relatively large leaf area through a relativelysmall diameter ‘pipe’. It is tempting to suggestthat the pronounced decline of W. nobilis in the Tertiary isrelated to its unusual branch-base structure but physiologicalstudies of whole plant conductance are still needed.     

Temperature thresholds for germination in 20 short‐range endemic plant species from a Greenstone Belt in southern Western Australia

• The study of climate‐driven effects on seed traits such as germination has gained momentum over the past decade as the impact of global warming becomes more apparent on the health and survival of plant diversity.
• Seed response to warming was evaluated in a suite of short‐range endemic species from the biodiverse Greenstone Belt of southern Western Australia. The temperature dimensions for germination in 20 woody perennials were identified using small unreplicated samples over 6 weeks on a temperature gradient plate (constant and fluctuating temperatures between 5 and 40 °C). These data were subsequently modelled against current and forecast (2070) mean monthly minimum and maximum temperatures to illustrate seasonal changes to germination timing and final percentage germination.
• All but one species attained full germination in at least one cell on the gradient plate. Modelling of the data suggested only minimal changes to percentage germination despite a forecast rise in diurnal temperatures over the next 50 years. Nine species were predicted to experience declines of between <1% and 7%, whilst 11 species were predicted to increase their germination by <1% to 3%. Overall, the speed of germination is predicted to increase but the timing of germination for most species shifts seasonally (both advances and delays) as a result of changing diurnal temperatures.
• The capacity of this suite of species to cope with warmer temperatures during a critical early life stage shows a degree of adaptation to heterogeneous environments. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial to managing and conserving plant diversity.

     

Complete Chloroplast Genome of the Wollemi Pine (Wollemia nobilis): Structure and Evolution

The Wollemi pine (Wollemia nobilis) is a rare Southern conifer with striking morphological similarity to fossil pines. A small population of W. nobilis was discovered in 1994 in a remote canyon system in the Wollemi National Park (near Sydney, Australia). This population contains fewer than 100 individuals and is critically endangered. Previous genetic studies of the Wollemi pine have investigated its evolutionary relationship with other pines in the family Araucariaceae, and have suggested that the Wollemi pine genome contains little or no variation. However, these studies were performed prior to the widespread use of genome sequencing, and their conclusions were based on a limited fraction of the Wollemi pine genome. In this study, we address this problem by determining the entire sequence of the W. nobilis chloroplast genome. A detailed analysis of the structure of the genome is presented, and the evolution of the genome is inferred by comparison with the chloroplast sequences of other members of the Araucariaceae and the related family Podocarpaceae. Pairwise alignments of whole genome sequences, and the presence of unique pseudogenes, gene duplications and insertions in W. nobilis and Araucariaceae, indicate that the W. nobilis chloroplast genome is most similar to that of its sister taxon Agathis. However, the W. nobilis genome contains an unusually high number of repetitive sequences, and these could be used in future studies to investigate and conserve any remnant genetic diversity in the Wollemi pine.     

Conservation technologies for safeguarding and restoring threatened flora: case studies from Eastern Australia

This paper highlights recent advances and improved scientific understanding of conservation technologies through selected case studies on threatened plant species indigenous to Eastern Australia. This includes investigations into seed desiccation, storage responses and cryopreservation in rainforest species, particularly the socio-economically important Australian native Citrus spp., Davidsonia spp. (Davidson’s plum) and Syzygium spp. This work also (1) increases our understanding of ecological correlates of seed desiccation sensitivity for predictive use and (2) improves restoration practice through better understanding of seed storage and germination requirements. The use of in vitro conservation technologies in support of conservation actions for endangered species is outlined in case studies on Wollemia nobilis (Wollemi pine), epiphytic and terrestrial orchid species, and an endangered fern species.     

Biflavonoids from the Wollemi Pine,Wollemia nobilis (Araucariaceae)

Biflavonoids from the leaves of Wollemia nobilis (Wollemi Pine) have been investigated and compared with data on other members of the family Araucariaceae. Based on ¹H and ¹³C NMR as well as High Resolution Mass Spectrometry (HRMS) the structures of seven isolated biflavonoids were fully determined. Although all of them were previously characterised especially at Agathis and in lesser degree at Araucaria genera this is the first report on their occurrence at Wollemi Pine, one of the world's oldest and rarest plants.     

Increasing temperatures can improve seedling establishment in arid-adapted savanna trees

Plant species are shifting their ranges in response to global climate change, thus intensifying the need to predict such changes accurately. As the environmental requirements controlling plant distribution act differently at each developmental stage, there is a need to acquire a demographic-specific understanding of the factors which determine these distributions. Here we investigated the germination niche of two common savanna species Acacia nigrescens and Colophospermum mopane, with the aims to disentangle the direct and indirect effects of temperature on seed germination and establishment and to explore the impact of higher temperatures on the establishment success of savanna trees. Under laboratory conditions, we used thermal gradient plates to determine the thermal germination niche of both species, and a water stress experiment was conducted on C. mopane to account for water–temperature interactions. Using these data we parameterised a soil-moisture model to determine germination and establishment success under field conditions at current and future temperatures (+4 °C). Based on this model, higher future temperatures will not limit germination directly, but they will reduce the number of germination events by reducing the time window of suitable available soil water. Conversely, warmer conditions will accelerate the rate of radicle extension and increase the frequency of seedling establishment events. An additional advantage of higher temperatures is that fewer seeds will germinate, resulting in slower seed bank depletion when successful seedling establishment events do occur.     

Fire and summer temperatures interact to shape seed dormancy thresholds

Background and AimsIn Mediterranean ecosystems, the heat shock of wildfire disrupts physical seed dormancy in many plant species. This triggers germination in the post-fire environment where seedling establishment is optimal due to decreased competition and increased resource availability. However, to maintain the soil seed bank until a fire occurs, the minimum heat capable of breaking seed dormancy (i.e. the lower heat threshold) must be above the maximum temperatures typically observed in the soil during the summer. We therefore hypothesized that summer temperatures have shaped heat requirements for physical dormancy release. Specifically, we predicted that seeds from populations growing under warmer summers will have higher values of the lower heat threshold.MethodsTo evaluate this prediction, we collected seeds from two Cistus species in 31 populations (20 Cistus albidus and 11 Cistus salviifolius) along a climate gradient of summer temperatures on the eastern coast of Spain. For each population, seeds were treated to 10 min heat shocks, from 30 to 120 °C in 5 °C increments (19 treatments), to simulate increasing heat doses from summer to fire-related temperatures. Seeds were then germinated in the lab.Key ResultsFor all populations, maximum germination was observed when applying temperatures associated with fire. Lower heat thresholds varied among populations, with a positive relationship between summer temperatures at seed population origin and the heat dose required to break dormancy.ConclusionsOur results suggest that fire drives maximum dormancy release for successful post-fire germination, while summer temperatures determine lower heat thresholds for ensuring inter-fire seed bank persistence. Significant among-population variation of thresholds also suggests that post-fire seeder species have some potential to modify their dormancy release requirements in response to changing climate.     

Incorporating Cold-Air Pooling into Downscaled Climate Models Increases Potential Refugia for Snow-Dependent Species within the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion,CA

We present a unique water-balance approach for modeling snowpack under historic, current and future climates throughout the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion. Our methodology uses a finer scale (270 m) than previous regional studies and incorporates cold-air pooling, an atmospheric process that sustains cooler temperatures in topographic depressions thereby mitigating snowmelt. Our results are intended to support management and conservation of snow-dependent species, which requires characterization of suitable habitat under current and future climates. We use the wolverine (Gulo gulo) as an example species and investigate potential habitat based on the depth and extent of spring snowpack within four National Park units with proposed wolverine reintroduction programs. Our estimates of change in spring snowpack conditions under current and future climates are consistent with recent studies that generally predict declining snowpack. However, model development at a finer scale and incorporation of cold-air pooling increased the persistence of April 1^st snowpack. More specifically, incorporation of cold-air pooling into future climate projections increased April 1^st snowpack by 6.5% when spatially averaged over the study region and the trajectory of declining April 1^st snowpack reverses at mid-elevations where snow pack losses are mitigated by topographic shading and cold-air pooling. Under future climates with sustained or increased precipitation, our results indicate a high likelihood for the persistence of late spring snowpack at elevations above approximately 2,800 m and identify potential climate refugia sites for snow-dependent species at mid-elevations, where significant topographic shading and cold-air pooling potential exist.     

Conditional cold avoidance drives between-population variation in germination behaviour in Calluna vulgaris

Background and Aims

Across their range, widely distributed species are exposed to a variety of climatic and other environmental conditions, and accordingly may display variation in life history strategies. For seed germination in cold climates, two contrasting responses to variation in winter temperature have been documented: first, an increased ability to germinate at low temperatures (cold tolerance) as winter temperatures decrease, and secondly a reduced ability to germinate at low temperatures (cold avoidance) that concentrates germination towards the warmer parts of the season.

Methods

Germination responses were tested for Calluna vulgaris, the dominant species of European heathlands, from ten populations collected along broad-scale bioclimatic gradients (latitude, altitude) in Norway, covering a substantial fraction of the species'' climatic range. Incubation treatments varied from 10 to 25 °C, and germination performance across populations was analysed in relation to temperature conditions at the seed collection locations.

Key Results

Seeds from all populations germinated rapidly and to high final percentages under the warmer incubation temperatures. Under low incubation temperatures, cold-climate populations had significantly lower germination rates and percentages than warm-climate populations. While germination rates and percentages also increased with seed mass, seed mass did not vary along the climatic gradients, and therefore did not explain the variation in germination responses.

Conclusions

Variation in germination responses among Calluna populations was consistent with increased temperature requirements for germination towards colder climates, indicating a cold-avoidance germination strategy conditional on the temperature at the seeds'' origin. Along a gradient of increasing temperatures this suggests a shift in selection pressures on germination from climatic adversity (i.e. low temperatures and potential frost risk in early or late season) to competitive performance and better exploitation of the entire growing season.     

First Evidence for Wollemi Pine-type Pollen (Dilwynites: Araucariaceae) in South America

We report the first fossil pollen from South America of the lineage that includes the recently discovered, extremely rare Australian Wollemi Pine, Wollemia nobilis (Araucariaceae). The grains are from the late Paleocene to early middle Eocene Ligorio Márquez Formation of Santa Cruz, Patagonia, Argentina, and are assigned to Dilwynites, the fossil pollen type that closely resembles the pollen of modern Wollemia and some species of its Australasian sister genus, Agathis. Dilwynites was formerly known only from Australia, New Zealand, and East Antarctica. The Patagonian Dilwynites occurs with several taxa of Podocarpaceae and a diverse range of cryptogams and angiosperms, but not Nothofagus. The fossils greatly extend the known geographic range of Dilwynites and provide important new evidence for the Antarctic region as an early Paleogene portal for biotic interchange between Australasia and South America.     

Germination response to various temperature regimes of four Mediterranean seeder shrubs across a range of altitudes

In dry-summer seasonal climates, the beginning of the rainy season can prompt germination under different temperatures, depending on altitude. Understanding germination responses to temperature with altitude is important in fire-prone environments for species regenerating after fire from seeds (seeders), particularly under changing climate. Here we investigated the role of temperature in four Mediterranean seeder shrubs from Central Spain. Seeds from 17 sites (285–1,253 m altitude), of two hard-seeded nanophanerophytes (Cistus ladanifer and C. salviifolius) and two soft-seeded chamaephytes (Lavandula pedunculata and Thymus mastichina) were investigated. Intact and heat shock treated seeds were set to germinate under four temperature regimes, including a treatment simulating future warming. GLM with binomial or gamma functions were used to test treatment effects using altitude as a covariate. Altitude was a significant covariate only in L. pedunculata. Temperature did not affect final germination in either Cistus, but it significantly affected T. mastichina, and interacted with altitude in L. pedunculata, whereby the higher the altitude the less it germinated with decreasing temperature. Germination speed (T₅₀) was lower at colder temperatures in all but C. salviifolius that was insensitive to our treatments. Heat shock significantly increased final germination in both Cistus and T. mastichina, but did not interact with temperature or altitude. We conclude that germination response to temperature, including varying sensitivity with altitude, differed among these species; thus, changes in the timing of the onset of the rainy season will diversely affect populations at various altitudes. We discuss our results in a context of changing climate and fire.     

Effects of a warmer climate on seed germination in the subarctic

Background and Aims

In a future warmer subarctic climate, the soil temperatures experienced by dispersed seeds are likely to increase during summer but may decrease during winter due to expected changes in snow depth, duration and quality. Because little is known about the dormancy-breaking and germination requirements of subarctic species, how warming may influence the timing and level of germination in these species was examined.

Methods

Under controlled conditions, how colder winter and warmer summer soil temperatures influenced germination was tested in 23 subarctic species. The cold stratification and warm incubation temperatures were derived from real soil temperature measurements in subarctic tundra and the temperatures were gradually changed over time to simulate different months of the year.

Key Results

Moderate summer warming (+2·5 °C) substantially accelerated germination in all but four species but did not affect germination percentages. Optimum germination temperatures (20/10°C) further decreased germination time and increased germination percentages in three species. Colder winter soil temperatures delayed the germination in ten species and decreased the germination percentage in four species, whereas the opposite was found in Silene acaulis. In most species, the combined effect of a reduced snow cover and summer warming resulted in earlier germination and thus a longer first growing season, which improves the chance of seedling survival. In particular the recruitment of (dwarf) shrubs (Vaccinium myrtillus, V. vitis-idaea, Betula nana), trees (Alnus incana, Betula pubescens) and grasses (Calamagrostis lapponica, C. purpurea) is likely to benefit from a warmer subarctic climate.

Conclusions

Seedling establishment is expected to improve in a future warmer subarctic climate, mainly by considerably earlier germination. The magnitudes of the responses are species-specific, which should be taken into account when modelling population growth and migration of subarctic species.Key words: Climate change, cold stratification, dwarf shrubs, germination percentage, incubation temperature, mean germination time, seedling establishment, seeds, Silene, subarctic species, Vaccinium, warming     

Dormancy inDioscorea: Differences of temperature responses in seed germination among six Japanese species

Effects on seed germination of temperatures ranging from −2 C to +29 C were tested inDioscorea nipponica, D. tokoro, D. japonica, D. tenuipes, D. septemloba andD. quinqueloba which orginate in the temperate zone; they are distributed from northern cold areas to southern warm areas approximately in this order in Japan. After water imbibition of these seeds, chilling induced full germination, and high temperatures over 23 C induced a secondary dormancy, but sensitivities to the chilling and to the high temperatures differed with species. Cold-climate species germinated rapidly at higher temperatures after a short-term chilling or even without chilling, whereas warm-climate species required chilling of a rather long period for germination; thus, among 6 species tested, favourable temperatures for germination and climatic temperatures of distribution area were conversely correlated. Seeds ofD. tokoro andD. japonica collected from several populations grown in different climates were also tested for germination at 11 to 29 C; seeds from warm climates germinated rather slowly compared to seeds from cold climates. These inte- and intra-specific adaptation manners in the temperature members of the genusDioscorea are entirely different from those of many other plant genera reported by some workers.     

Predicting germination in semi-arid wildland seedbeds II. Field validation of wet thermal-time models

Accurate prediction of germination for species used for semi-arid land revegetation would support selection of plant materials for specific climatic conditions and sites. Wet thermal-time models predict germination time by summing progress toward germination subpopulation percentages as a function of temperature across intermittent wet periods or within singular wet periods. Wet periods may be defined by any reasonable seedbed water potential above which seeds are expected to imbibe sufficiently to germinate. These models may be especially applicable to the Artemisia steppe of the western U.S.A. where water availability limits germination in summer and early fall while cool temperatures limit germination in late fall, winter, and spring when soil water is available. To test accuracy of wet thermal-time models we placed seedbags with seeds of five species commonly used in wildland revegetation, as well as two collections of the invasive annual grass, Bromus tectorum L. into Artemisia tridentata Nutt. ssp. wyomingensis Beetle and Young zone seedbeds for 19 field incubation periods over four seasons. Hourly surface (1–3 cm) soil temperatures and soil water potentials were measured near the seedbags. These data were input into thermal-time models which predicted time to germination for each seedbag retrieval date. Binomial data representing agreement (1) or lack of agreement (0) of predicted and actual germination for each retrieval date were analyzed using logistic regression. Thermal summation method, season, water potential threshold, and species most affected accuracy of predictions (P < 0.0002). A model which defined a wet period as ≥−1.5 MPa soil water potential and summed progress toward germination across intermittent wet periods was most accurate in predicting actual germination by a retrieval date. Across all species, this model correctly predicted that germination would occur in seedbags 75–95% of the time over the latewinter to mid-spring seasons, but only 50–71% of the time for the fall-early winter season when time of soil water availability was least. Although the wet thermal-time model overestimated time to germination for some species and seasons, its accuracy should be high enough to evaluate germination potential by mid-spring for different species, sites, and climatic conditions.     

Dormancy and germination of sixRhinanthus species in relation to climate

The genusRhinanthus (Orobanchaceae) consists of annual hemiparasites that occur in a wide range of climates. Patterns of dormancy and germination were studied for six species sampled in areas ranging from the Pyrenees to Northern Scandinavia, and from sea level up to about 2500 m altitude in the Alpine region. Dormancy was broken by a 2 to 6 months period of cold stratification. Optimal temperature and length of the stratification period appeared to vary between and within species. Two patterns of dormancy and germination were distinguished. Seeds of the first group, including the widely distributedR. minor andR. angustifolius, further referred to as the LW group, require a relatively long period of cold stratification. Moreover, their germination is accelerated if they are subjected to a widening range of higher temperatures in the last weeks of the stratification period. In the other species (R. alectorolophus, R. glacialis, R. mediterraneus and perhapsR. antiquus) the release of dormancy is completed in a rather short period. Higher temperatures in the last weeks of the stratification period hardly affect the germination process of this SN-group, with short dormancy and no accelerated germination at higher temperatures. In both groups, temperatures above the low values during stratification reduce germination percentages and induce secondary dormancy in non-germinated seeds. The effects strongly vary with timing and temperature. The patterns have a genetic basis and seem to be species-specific. They do not vary with climate conditions, since samplesR. minor, whether collected in sub-arctic or sub-alpine areas or at sea level, generally react according to the LW pattern, and samples ofR. alectorolophus from areas at sea level up to montane regions according to the SN one. The ecological significance of the various stratification requirements and effects of higher temperatures on germination is discussed in relation to the local climate of the species and the evolutionary history of the genus.     

Forest cover reduces thermally suitable habitats and affects responses to a warmer climate predicted in a high-elevation lizard

Warmer climates have affected animal distribution ranges, but how they may interact with vegetation patterns to affect habitat use, an important consideration for future wildlife management, has received little attention. Here, we use a biophysical model to investigate the potential thermal impact of vegetation pattern on the habitat quality of a high-elevation grassland lizard, Takydromus hsuehshanensis, and to predict the thermal suitability of vegetation for this species in a future warmer climate (assuming 3 °C air temperature increase). We assess the thermal quality of vegetation types in our study area (Taroko National Park in areas >1,800 m) using three ecologically relevant estimates of reptiles: body temperature (T _b), maximum active time, and maximum digestive time. The results show that increasing forest canopy gradually cools the microclimates, hence decreasing these estimates. In the current landscape, sunny mountain-top grasslands are predicted to serve as high quality thermal habitat, whereas the dense forests that are dominant as a result of forest protection are too cold to provide suitable habitat. In simulated warmer climates, the thermal quality of dense forests increases slightly but remains inferior to that of grasslands. We note that the impact of warmer climates on this reptile will be greatly affected by future vegetation patterns, and we suggest that the current trend of upslope forest movement found in many other mountain systems could cause disadvantages to some heliothermic lizard species.     

Combined effects of temperature and interspecific competition on the mortality of the invasive garden ant,Lasius neglectus: A laboratory study

The invasive garden ant, Lasius neglectus, is a dominant species due to its capacity to form large supercolonies. This species was assumed to possess a wide thermal niche since it is able to adapt to cold climates, which is a factor that boosted its rapid expansion from south to many central-northern European Countries. However, the effect of variations in environmental temperatures on its competitive ability against other species has still not been investigated. In this paper, we analyzed the change in survival ability of Lasius neglectus during encounters with two Mediterranean dominant ants (Crematogaster scutellaris and Tapinoma nigerrimum) at four different temperatures (15, 20, 25 and 30 °C). Firstly, control tests were performed to provide the baseline survival ability of the three species at different temperatures. Secondly, competition tests were carried out at the same temperatures. Lasius neglectus survival was negatively affected by high temperature (30 °C) in control tests, and this impairment was much more pronounced in competition tests. On the contrary, the two opponent species were only marginally affected by temperatures in control tests. Crematogaster scutellaris was a better competitor than L. neglectus, particularly at high temperatures. Tapinoma nigerrimum was a weaker competitor and was always outcompeted by L. neglectus, particularly at low temperatures. This result could suggest that L. neglectus is at a disadvantage during interspecific encounters when temperatures are high and that the predicted future increase in environmental temperatures may potentially enhance this handicap.     

The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions

Climate envelope models (CEMs) have been used to predict the distribution of species under current, past, and future climatic conditions by inferring a species' environmental requirements from localities where it is currently known to occur. CEMs can be evaluated for their ability to predict current species distributions but it is unclear whether models that are successful in predicting current distributions are equally successful in predicting distributions under different climates (i.e. different regions or time periods). We evaluated the ability of CEMs to predict species distributions under different climates by comparing their predictions with those obtained with a mechanistic model (MM). In an MM the distribution of a species is modeled based on knowledge of a species' physiology. The potential distributions of 100 plant species were modeled with an MM for current conditions, a past climate reconstruction (21 000 years before present) and a future climate projection (double preindustrial CO₂ conditions). Point localities extracted from the currently suitable area according to the MM were used to predict current, future, and past distributions with four CEMs covering a broad range of statistical approaches: Bioclim (percentile distributions), Domain (distance metric), GAM (general additive modeling), and Maxent (maximum entropy). Domain performed very poorly, strongly underestimating range sizes for past or future conditions. Maxent and GAM performed as well under current climates as under past and future climates. Bioclim slightly underestimated range sizes but the predicted ranges overlapped more with the ranges predicted with the MM than those predicted with GAM did. Ranges predicted with Maxent overlapped most with those produced with the MMs, but compared with the ranges predicted with GAM they were more variable and sometimes much too large. Our results suggest that some CEMs can indeed be used to predict species distributions under climate change, but individual modeling approaches should be validated for this purpose, and model choice could be made dependent on the purpose of a particular study.