Patent and Exclusivity Status of Essential Medicines for Non-Communicable Disease

Objective

The threat of non-communicable diseases (“NCDs”) is increasingly becoming a global health crisis and are pervasive in high, middle, and low-income populations resulting in an estimated 36 million deaths per year. There is a need to assess intellectual property rights (“IPRs”) that may impede generic production and availability and affordability to essential NCD medicines.

Methods

Using the data sources listed below, the study design systematically eliminated NCD drugs that had no patent/exclusivity provisions on API, dosage, or administration route. The first step identified essential medicines that treat certain high disease burden NCDs. A second step examined the patent and exclusivity status of active ingredient, dosage and listed route of administration using exclusion criteria outlined in this study.

Materials

We examined the patent and exclusivity status of medicines listed in the World Health Organization’s (“WHO”) Model List of Essential Drugs (Medicines) (“MLEM”) and other WHO sources for drugs treating certain NCDs. i.e., cardiovascular and respiratory disease, cancers, and diabetes. We utilized the USA Food and Drug Administration Orange Book and the USA Patent and Trademark Office databases as references given the predominant number of medicines registered in the USA.

Results

Of the 359 MLEM medicines identified, 22% (79/359) address targeted NCDs. Of these 79, only eight required in-depth patent or exclusivity assessment. Upon further review, no NCD MLEM medicines had study patent or exclusivity protection for reviewed criteria.

Conclusions

We find that ensuring availability and affordability of potential generic formulations of NCD MLEM medicines appears to be more complex than the presence of IPRs with API, dosage, or administration patent or exclusivity protection. Hence, more sophisticated analysis of NCD barriers to generic availability and affordability should be conducted in order to ensure equitable access to global populations for these essential medicines.     

Access to Diagnostic Tests and Essential Medicines for Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes Care: Cost,Availability and Affordability in the West Region of Cameroon

Objective

To assess the availability and affordability of medicines and routine tests for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes in the West region of Cameroon, a low-income setting.

Methods

A survey was conducted on the availability and cost of twelve routine tests and twenty medicines for CVD and diabetes in eight health districts (four urban and four rural) covering over 60% of the population of the region (1.8 million). We analyzed the percentage of tests and medicines available, the median price against the international reference price (median price ratio) for the medicines, and affordability in terms of the number of days’ wages it would cost the lowest-paid unskilled government worker for initial investigation tests and procurement for one month of treatment.

Results

The availability of tests varied between 10% for the ECG to 100% for the fasting blood sugar. The average cost for the initial investigation using the minimum tests cost 29.76 days’ wages. The availability of medicines varied from 36.4% to 59.1% in urban and from 9.1% to 50% in rural settings. Only metformin and benzathine-benzylpenicilline had a median price ratio of ≤1.5, with statins being largely unaffordable (at least 30.51 days’ wages). One month of combination treatment for coronary heart disease costs at least 40.87 days’ wages.

Conclusion

The investigation and management of patients with medium-to-high cardiovascular risk remains largely unavailable and unaffordable in this setting. An effective non-communicable disease program should lay emphasis on primary prevention, and improve affordable access to essential medicines in public outlets.     

Medical Care and Payment for Diabetes in China: Enormous Threat and Great Opportunity

Background

The Diabetes Impact Study followed up a large national population-based screening study to estimate the use of and expenditures for medical care caused by diabetes in China and to ascertain the use and cost of essential basic medicines and care.

Methods

In 2009–10, the study team interviewed 1482 adults with diabetes and 1553 adults with glucose tolerance in the normal range from population-based random samples at 12 sites in China. The response rate was 67%.

Findings

After adjusting for age, sex, and urban/rural location, people with diabetes received 1.93 times more days of inpatient treatment, 2.40 times more outpatient visits, and 3.35 times more medications than people with normal glucose tolerance (all p<0.05). Adjusted expenditures for medical care were 3.38 times higher among people with diabetes than among people with normal glucose tolerance (p<0.01, unadjusted 3.97). Persons who were diagnosed with ≥10 years prior to the survey paid 3.75 times as much for medical care as those with ≤5 years of diagnosed diabetes. Among persons with diabetes, 45.2% took medication to control blood sugar, 21.1% took an antihypertensive medicine, 22.4% took daily aspirin, and 1.8% took a statin. Over the three months before the interview, 46.1% of persons with diabetes recalled seeing a doctor, 48.9% recalled a blood pressure measurement, and 54.5% recalled a blood sugar test. Over the year preceding the interview, 32.1% recalled a retinal screening and 17.9% recalled a foot examination.

Conclusions

In China, health care use and costs were dramatically higher for people with diabetes than for people with normal glucose tolerance and, in relative terms, much higher than in industrialized countries. Low-cost generic medicines that would reduce diabetes expenditures were not fully used.     

Evaluation of the burden of unsuspected pulmonary tuberculosis and co-morbidity with non-communicable diseases in sputum producing adult inpatients

Background

A high burden of tuberculosis (TB) occurs in sub-Saharan African countries and many cases of active TB and drug-resistant TB remain undiagnosed. Tertiary care hospitals provide an opportunity to study TB co-morbidity with non-communicable and other communicable diseases (NCDs/CDs). We evaluated the burden of undiagnosed pulmonary TB and multi-drug resistant TB in adult inpatients, regardless of their primary admission diagnosis, in a tertiary referral centre.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In this prospective study, newly admitted adult inpatients able to produce sputum at the University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia, were screened for pulmonary TB using fluorescent smear microscopy and automated liquid culture. The burden of pulmonary TB, unsuspected TB, TB co-morbidity with NCDs and CDs was determined. Sputum was analysed from 900 inpatients (70.6% HIV infected) 277 (30.8%) non-TB suspects, 286 (31.8%) TB suspects and 337 (37.4%) were already receiving TB treatment. 202/900 (22.4%) of patients had culture confirmed TB. TB co-morbidity was detected in 20/275 (7.3%) NCD patients, significantly associated with diabetes (P = 0.006, OR 6.571, 95%CI: 1.706–25.3). 27/202 (13.4%) TB cases were unsuspected. There were 18 confirmed cases of MDR-TB, 5 of which were unsuspected.

Conclusions/Significance

A large burden of unsuspected pulmonary TB co-morbidity exists in inpatients with NCDs and other CDs. Pro-active sputum screening of all inpatients in tertiary referral centres in high TB endemic countries is recommended. The scale of the problem of undiagnosed MDR-TB in inpatients requires further study.     

Routine Paediatric Sickle Cell Disease (SCD) Outpatient Care in a Rural Kenyan Hospital: Utilization and Costs

Background

More than 70% of children with sickle cell disease (SCD) are born in sub-Saharan Africa where the prevalence at birth of this disease reaches 2% or higher in some selected areas. There is a dearth of knowledge on comprehensive care received by children with SCD in sub-Saharan Africa and its associated cost. Such knowledge is important for setting prevention and treatment priorities at national and international levels. This study focuses on routine care for children with SCD in an outpatient clinic of the Kilifi District Hospital, located in a rural area on the coast of Kenya.

Objective

To estimate the per-patient costs for routine SCD outpatient care at a rural Kenyan hospital.

Methods

We collected routine administrative and primary cost data from the SCD outpatient clinic and supporting departments at Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya. Costs were estimated by evaluating inputs - equipment, medication, supplies, building use, utility, and personnel - to reflect the cost of offering this service within an existing healthcare facility. Annual economic costs were similarly calculated based on input costs, prorated lifetime of equipment and appropriate discount rate. Sensitivity analyses evaluated these costs under different pay scales and different discount rate.

Results

We estimated that the annual economic cost per patient attending the SCD clinic was USD 138 in 2010 with a range of USD 94 to USD 229.

Conclusion

This study supplies the first published estimate of the cost of routine outpatient care for children born with SCD in sub-Saharan Africa. Our study provides policy makers with an indication of the potential future costs of maintaining specialist outpatient clinics for children living with SCD in similar contexts.     

Distribution and Determinants of Non Communicable Diseases among Elderly Uyghur Ethnic Group in Xinjiang,China

Background

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are showing an increasing trend globally as well as in China. Elderly population are more prone to these NCDs. Situation in China is worse owing to the higher proportion of geriatric population. Burden of NCDs and the role of their socio-demographic and behavioral predictors among these elderly and more so among the ethnic minority groups among them, need to be investigated specifically, owing to their distinct genetic background, lifestyles and behavior.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted among 1329 randomly selected persons of Uyghur ethnicity, aged 60 years or more in Xinjiang, the largest administrative division in China to measure the burden of NCDs, understand the distribution of socio-demographic, behavioral and life event-related potential correlates of them and to estimate the association of the NCDs with these correlates.

Results

Among these participants 54.2% were female, 86.8% were married and more than half had only attended elementary school or less. 41.46% was suffering from at least one NCD. 20.22% had one NCD, 12.11% had two and 8.58% had three or more. 27.3% had hypertension, 4.06% had diabetes, 6.02% had hyperlipidemia, 7.37% had angina, 14.52% had cardiovascular diseases, 11.59% had any kind of cancers and 9.78% had chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases. Rural residents (OR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.17–1.80, AOR = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.53–2.61) and current smokers had higher odds of having more NCDs (AOR = 1.53, 95% CI: 1.00–2.34). Additionally not being satisfied with current life, not being able to take care of self in daily life, currently not being involved in farm work, less intake of fresh vegetables, fruits and garlic, too less or too much salt intake, not having hobbies were found to be positively associated with having more NCDs.

Conclusion

Implementation of effective intervention strategies to promote healthy life styles among the Uyghur elderly population of China seems urgent.     

A Risk Assessment Model for Type 2 Diabetes in Chinese

Aims

To develop a risk assessment model for persons at risk from type 2 diabetes in Chinese.

Materials and Methods

The model was generated from the cross-sectional data of 16246 persons aged from 20 years old and over. C4.5 algorithm and multivariate logistic regression were used for variable selection. Relative risk value combined with expert decision constructed a comprehensive risk assessment for evaluating the individual risk category. The validity of the model was tested by cross validation and a survey performed six years later with some participants.

Results

Nine variables were selected as risk variables. A mathematical model was established to calculate the average probability of diabetes in each cluster''s group divided by sex and age. A series of criteria combined with relative RR value (2.2) and level of risk variables stratified individuals into four risk groups (non, low, medium and high risk). The overall accuracy reached 90.99% evaluated by cross-validation inside the model population. The incidence of diabetes for each risk group increased from 1.5 (non-risk group) to 28.2(high-risk group) per one thousand persons per year with six years follow-up.

Discussion

The model could determine the individual risk for type 2 diabetes by four risk degrees. This model could be used as a technique tool not only to support screening persons at different risk, but also to evaluate the result of the intervention.     

Comparison of Modic Changes in the Lumbar and Cervical Spine,in 3167 Patients with and without Spinal Pain

Background Context

There are few comparisons of Modic changes (MCs) in the lumbar and cervical spine.

Purpose

Compare the prevalence of MCs in the lumbar and cervical spine, and determine how MC prevalence depends on spinal pain, age, disc degeneration, spinal level, and the presence or absence of kyphosis.

Study Design

Retrospective clinical survey.

Materials and Methods

Magnetic resonance images (MRIs) were compared from five patient groups: 1. 1223 patients with low-back pain/radiculopathy only; 2. 1023 patients with neck pain/radiculopathy only; 3. 497 patients with concurrent low-back and neck symptoms; 4. 304 asymptomatic subjects with lumbar MRIs; and 5. 120 asymptomatic subjects with cervical MRIs.

Results

The prevalence of MCs was higher in those with spinal pain than in those without, both in the lumbar spine (21.0% vs 10.5%) and cervical spine (8.8% vs 3.3%). Type II MCs were most common and Type III were least common in all groups. The prevalence of lumbar MCs in people with back pain was little affected by the presence of concurrent neck pain, and the same was true for the prevalence of cervical MCs in people with neck pain with or without concurrent back pain. When symptomatic patients were reclassified into two groups (back pain, neck pain), the prevalence of lumbar MCs in people with back pain was greater than that of cervical MCs in people with neck pain. The prevalence of lumbar and cervical MCs increased with age, disc degeneration, (descending) spinal level, and increased kyphosis.

Conclusions

There is a significantly higher prevalence of MCs in patients with back and neck pain. The reported association with increased kyphosis (flat back) is novel.     

Selection of Essential Medicines for Diabetes in Low and Middle Income Countries: A Survey of 32 National Essential Medicines Lists

Aim

Diabetes is a growing burden especially in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Inadequate access to diabetes care is of particular concern and selection of appropriate diabetes medicines on national essential medicines lists (NEMLs) is a first step in achieving adequate access. This selection was studied among LMICs and influences of various factors associated with selection decisions were assessed.

Methods

Countries were studied if they employed NEMLs for reimbursement or procurement purposes. Presence and number of essential diabetes medicines from different classes, both insulins and oral blood glucose lowering medicines, were surveyed and calculated. Data were also analyzed by country income level, geographic region, year of last update of the NEML and purpose of NEML employment. The effect of prevalence and burden of disease on the number of essential diabetes medicines was also studied. Non parametric tests and univariate linear regression analysis were used.

Results

Nearly all countries (n = 32) had chosen fast (97%) and intermediate acting insulin (93%), glibenclamide and metformin (100% both) as essential medicines. The median number of essential diabetes medicines was 6, equally divided between insulins and oral medicines. 20% of the countries had selected insulin analogues as essential medicines. Among all the studied factors, an increase in burden of diabetes and wealth of countries were associated with selection of higher numbers of essential diabetes medicines (p = 0.02 in both cases).

Conclusions

Nearly all the studied LMICs had included the minimum required medicines for diabetes management in their NEMLs. Selection can still be improved (e.g. exclusion of insulin analogues and replacement of glibenclamide by gliclazide). Nevertheless, the known suboptimal and inconsistent availability of essential diabetes medicines in LMICs cannot be explained by inadequate selection of essential medicines. Countries should therefore be encouraged to give precedence to implementation of NEMLs to make essential diabetes medicines more accessible.     

Lower Extremity Amputations in Persons with and without Diabetes in Italy: 2001–2010

Objective

To analyze hospitalization for lower extremity amputations (LEAs) and amputee rates in persons with and without diabetes in Italy.

Research Design and Methods

All patients with LEAs in the period 2001–2010 were identified analyzing the National Hospital Discharge Record database. For each year, amputee and hospitalization rates for LEAs were calculated either for persons with diabetes or without. Time trend for major and minor amputations were analysed.

Results

From 2001 to 2010 a mean annual number of 11,639 individuals underwent a lower extremity amputation: 58.6% had diabetes accounting for 60.7% of total hospitalizations. In 2010, the crude amputee rate for LEAs was 20.4 per 100,000 inhabitants: 247.2 for 100.000 persons with diabetes, and 8.6 for those without diabetes. Having diabetes was associated to an increased risk of amputation (Poisson estimated RR 10.9, 95%CI 9.4–12.8). Over the whole period, a progressive reduction of amputee rates was observed for major amputations either among persons with diabetes (−30.7%) or without diabetes (−12.5%), while the rates of minor amputations increased progressively (+22.4%) among people without diabetes and were nearly stable in people with diabetes (−4.6%). A greater number of minor amputations were performed among persons with than without diabetes: in 2010, the minor-to-major ratio among persons with diabetes (2.5) was more than twice than in those without diabetes (1.0).

Conclusions

The nationwide analyses confirm a progressive reduction of hospitalization and amputee rates for major LEAs, suggesting an earlier and more diffuse approach aimed at limb salvage.     

The Epidemiology of Chronic Kidney Disease in Northern Tanzania: A Population-Based Survey

Background

In sub-Saharan Africa, kidney failure has a high morbidity and mortality. Despite this, population-based estimates of prevalence, potential etiologies, and awareness are not available.

Methods

Between January and June 2014, we conducted a household survey of randomly-selected adults in Northern Tanzania. To estimate prevalence we screened for CKD, which was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73m2 and/or persistent albuminuria. We also screened for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and lifestyle practices including alcohol, tobacco, and traditional medicine use. Awareness was defined as a self-reported disease history and subsequently testing positive. We used population-based age- and gender-weights in estimating prevalence, and we used generalized linear models to explore potential risk factors associated with CKD, including living in an urban environment.

Results

We enrolled 481 adults from 346 households with a median age of 45 years. The community-based prevalence of CKD was 7.0% (95% CI 3.8-12.3), and awareness was low at 10.5% (4.7-22.0). The urban prevalence of CKD was 15.2% (9.6-23.3) while the rural prevalence was 2.0% (0.5-6.9). Half of the cases of CKD (49.1%) were not associated with any of the measured risk factors of hypertension, diabetes, or HIV. Living in an urban environment had the strongest crude (5.40; 95% CI 2.05-14.2) and adjusted prevalence risk ratio (4.80; 1.70-13.6) for CKD, and the majority (79%) of this increased risk was not explained by demographics, traditional medicine use, socioeconomic status, or co-morbid non-communicable diseases (NCDs).

Conclusions

We observed a high burden of CKD in Northern Tanzania that was associated with low awareness. Although demographic, lifestyle practices including traditional medicine use, socioeconomic factors, and NCDs accounted for some of the excess CKD risk observed with urban residence, much of the increased urban prevalence remained unexplained and will further study as demographic shifts reshape sub-Saharan Africa.     

The Prevalence and Determinants of Chronic Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors amongst Adults in the Dikgale Health Demographic and Surveillance System (HDSS) Site,Limpopo Province of South Africa

Background

The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence and determinants of chronic non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors in a rural community in the Limpopo Province of South Africa.

Methods

This survey was conducted using the WHO "STEPwise approach to the surveillance of non-communicable diseases" (STEPS) methodology. Participants were residents of the Dikgale HDSS site and standardised international protocols were used to measure behavioural risk factors (smoking, alcohol consumption, fruit and vegetable intake and, physical activity) and physical characteristics (weight, height, waist and hip circumferences and blood pressure–BP). Fasting blood glucose, triglyceride, cholesterol and HDL-C were determined in 732 participants. Data were analysed using STATA 12 for Windows.

Results

The prevalence of current smokers amongst the participants was 13.7%, of which 81.3% were daily smokers. Alcohol was consumed by 16.3% of the participants. The majority of participants (88.6%) had low daily intake of fruit and vegetables and low physical activity (66.5%). The prevalence of hypertension amongst the participants was 38.2%. Overweight, obesity and high waist circumference were prevalent in females. The cardio-metabolic risk profile was not significantly different between men and women. People who were older than 40 years, overweight or obese and those who consumed alcohol were more likely to be hypertensive. Smoking was associated significantly with older age, males, never married and divorced people. Alcohol consumption was associated with older age, males, low educational status and low income.

Conclusion

High levels of risk factors for NCDs among adults in the Dikgale HDSS suggest an urgent need for health interventions to control these risk factors at the population level in order to reduce the prevalence of NCDs.     

Task Shifting for Non-Communicable Disease Management in Low and Middle Income Countries – A Systematic Review

Background

One potential solution to limited healthcare access in low and middle income countries (LMIC) is task-shifting- the training of non-physician healthcare workers (NPHWs) to perform tasks traditionally undertaken by physicians. The aim of this paper is to conduct a systematic review of studies involving task-shifting for the management of non-communicable disease (NCD) in LMIC.

Methods

A search strategy with the following terms “task-shifting”, “non-physician healthcare workers”, “community healthcare worker”, “hypertension”, “diabetes”, “cardiovascular disease”, “mental health”, “depression”, “chronic obstructive pulmonary disease”, “respiratory disease”, “cancer” was conducted using Medline via Pubmed and the Cochrane library. Two reviewers independently reviewed the databases and extracted the data.

Findings

Our search generated 7176 articles of which 22 were included in the review. Seven studies were randomised controlled trials and 15 were observational studies. Tasks performed by NPHWs included screening for NCDs and providing primary health care. The majority of studies showed improved health outcomes when compared with usual healthcare, including reductions in blood pressure, increased uptake of medications and lower depression scores. Factors such as training of NPHWs, provision of algorithms and protocols for screening, treatment and drug titration were the main enablers of the task-shifting intervention. The main barriers identified were restrictions on prescribing medications and availability of medicines. Only two studies described cost-effective analyses, both of which demonstrated that task-shifting was cost-effective.

Conclusions

Task-shifting from physicians to NPHWs, if accompanied by health system re-structuring is a potentially effective and affordable strategy for improving access to healthcare for NCDs. Since the majority of study designs reviewed were of inadequate quality, future research methods should include robust evaluations of such strategies.     

Cross-Sectional Association between Length of Incarceration and Selected Risk Factors for Non-Communicable Chronic Diseases in Two Male Prisons of Mexico City

Background

Mexico City prisons are characterized by overcrowded facilities and poor living conditions for housed prisoners. Chronic disease profile is characterized by low prevalence of self reported hypertension (2.5%) and diabetes (1.8%) compared to general population; 9.5% of male inmates were obese. There is limited evidence regarding on the exposure to prison environment over prisoner’s health status; particularly, on cardiovascular disease risk factors. The objective of this study is to assess the relationship between length of incarceration and selected risk factors for non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs).

Methods and Findings

We performed a cross-sectional analysis using data from two large male prisons in Mexico City (n = 14,086). Using quantile regression models we assessed the relationship between length of incarceration and selected risk factors for NCDs; stratified analysis by age at admission to prison was performed. We found a significant negative trend in BMI and WC across incarceration length quintiles. BP had a significant positive trend with a percentage change increase around 5% mmHg. The greatest increase in systolic blood pressure was observed in the older age at admission group.

Conclusions

This analysis provides insight into the relationship between length of incarceration and four selected risk factors for NCDs; screening for high blood pressure should be guarantee in order to identify at risk individuals and linked to the prison’s health facility. It is important to assess prison environment features to approach potential risk for developing NCDs in this context.     

The burden of common infectious disease syndromes at the clinic and household level from population-based surveillance in rural and urban Kenya

Background

Characterizing infectious disease burden in Africa is important for prioritizing and targeting limited resources for curative and preventive services and monitoring the impact of interventions.

Methods

From June 1, 2006 to May 31, 2008, we estimated rates of acute lower respiratory tract illness (ALRI), diarrhea and acute febrile illness (AFI) among >50,000 persons participating in population-based surveillance in impoverished, rural western Kenya (Asembo) and an informal settlement in Nairobi, Kenya (Kibera). Field workers visited households every two weeks, collecting recent illness information and performing limited exams. Participants could access free high-quality care in a designated referral clinic in each site. Incidence and longitudinal prevalence were calculated and compared using Poisson regression.

Results

Incidence rates resulting in clinic visitation were the following: ALRI — 0.36 and 0.51 episodes per year for children <5 years and 0.067 and 0.026 for persons ≥5 years in Asembo and Kibera, respectively; diarrhea — 0.40 and 0.71 episodes per year for children <5 years and 0.09 and 0.062 for persons ≥5 years in Asembo and Kibera, respectively; AFI — 0.17 and 0.09 episodes per year for children <5 years and 0.03 and 0.015 for persons ≥5 years in Asembo and Kibera, respectively. Annually, based on household visits, children <5 years in Asembo and Kibera had 60 and 27 cough days, 10 and 8 diarrhea days, and 37 and 11 fever days, respectively. Household-based rates were higher than clinic rates for diarrhea and AFI, this difference being several-fold greater in the rural than urban site.

Conclusions

Individuals in poor Kenyan communities still suffer from a high burden of infectious diseases, which likely hampers their development. Urban slum and rural disease incidence and clinic utilization are sufficiently disparate in Africa to warrant data from both settings for estimating burden and focusing interventions.     

Impact of Mental Health Visits on Healthcare Cost in Patients with Diabetes and Comorbid Mental Health Disorders

Purpose

To assess the impact of mental health visits (MHV) on the cost of care for Veterans with diabetes and comorbid mental health conditions.

Methods

A national cohort of 120,852 Veterans with diabetes and at least one mental health diagnosis (i.e., substance abuse, depression or psychoses) in 2002 was followed through 2006. Outcomes were pharmacy, inpatient and outpatient costs in 2012 dollars.

Results

Least-square covariate adjusted estimates from the joint model of total VA costs of the number of MHV using December 31, 2012 value dollars indicate that relative to those with fewer MHV, those with 3+ MHV had the lowest mean inpatient cost ($21,406), but the highest mean outpatient and pharmacy cost ($9,727 and $2,015, respectively). If all Veterans who received zero MHV actually received 3+ MHV, we estimate through simulated scenarios that between $32,272,329 and $181,460,247 in inpatient costs would be saved. However, these savings would be offset by additional expenditures of between $1,166,017,547 and $1,166,224,787 in outpatient costs and between $151,604,683 and $161,439,632 in pharmacy costs.

Conclusions

Among Veterans with diabetes and comorbid mental disorders having three or more mental health visits is associated with marginally decreased inpatient cost, but these potential savings seem to be offset by increased outpatient and pharmacy costs.     

Cycling Promotion and Non-Communicable Disease Prevention: Health Impact Assessment and Economic Evaluation of Cycling to Work or School in Florence

Objective

To estimate the effects of cycling promotion on major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and costs from the public healthcare payer’s perspective.

Design

Health impact assessment and economic evaluation using a dynamic model over a ten-year period and according to two cycling promotion scenarios.

Setting

Cycling to work or school in Florence, Italy.

Population

All individuals aged 15 and older commuting to work or school in Florence.

Main outcome measures

The primary outcome measures were changes in NCD incidence and healthcare direct costs for the Tuscany Regional Health Service (SST) due to increased cycling. The secondary outcome was change in road traffic accidents.

Results

Increasing cycling modal share in Florence from 7.5% to about 17% (Scenario 1) or 27% (Scenario 2) could decrease the incidence of type 2 diabetes by 1.2% or 2.5%, and the incidence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke by 0.6% or 1.2%. Within 10 years, the number of cases that can be prevented is 280 or 549 for type 2 diabetes, 51 or 100 for AMI, and 51 or 99 for stroke in Scenario 1 or Scenario 2, respectively. Average annual discounted savings for the SST are estimated to amount to €400,804 or €771,201 in Scenario 1 or Scenario 2, respectively. In Florence, due to the high use of vulnerable motorized vehicles (such as scooters, mopeds, and motorcycles), road traffic accidents are expected to decline in both our scenarios. Sensitivity analyses showed that health benefits and savings for the SST are substantial, the most sensitive parameters being the relative risk estimates of NCDs and active commuting.

Conclusions

Effective policies and programs to promote a modal shift towards cycling among students and workers in Florence will contribute to reducing the NCD burden and helping long-term economic sustainability of the SST.     

Deaths Ascribed to Non-Communicable Diseases among Rural Kenyan Adults Are Proportionately Increasing: Evidence from a Health and Demographic Surveillance System, 2003–2010

Background

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) result in more deaths globally than other causes. Monitoring systems require strengthening to attribute the NCD burden and deaths in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Data from health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS) can contribute towards this goal.

Methods and Findings

Between 2003 and 2010, 15,228 deaths in adults aged 15 years (y) and older were identified retrospectively using the HDSS census and verbal autopsy in rural western Kenya, attributed into broad categories using InterVA-4 computer algorithms; 37% were ascribed to NCDs, 60% to communicable diseases (CDs), 3% to injuries, and <1% maternal causes. Median age at death for NCDs was 66y and 71y for females and males, respectively, with 43% (39% male, 48% female) of NCD deaths occurring prematurely among adults aged below 65y. NCD deaths were mainly attributed to cancers (35%) and cardio-vascular diseases (CVDs; 29%). The proportionate mortality from NCDs rose from 35% in 2003 to 45% in 2010 (χ² linear trend 93.4; p<0.001). While overall annual mortality rates (MRs) for NCDs fell, cancer-specific MRs rose from 200 to 262 per 100,000 population, mainly due to increasing deaths in adults aged 65y and older, and to respiratory neoplasms in all age groups. The substantial fall in CD MRs resulted in similar MRs for CDs and NCDs among all adult females by 2010. NCD MRs for adults aged 15y to <65y fell from 409 to 183 per 100,000 among females and from 517 to 283 per 100,000 population among males. NCD MRs were higher among males than females aged both below, and at or above, 65y.

Conclusions

NCDs constitute a significant proportion of deaths in rural western Kenya. Evidence of the increasing contribution of NCDs to overall mortality supports international recommendations to introduce or enhance prevention, screening, diagnosis and treatment programmes in LMICs.