Uncovering epidemiological dynamics in heterogeneous host populations using phylogenetic methods

Host population structure has a major influence on epidemiological dynamics. However, in particular for sexually transmitted diseases, quantitative data on population contact structure are hard to obtain. Here, we introduce a new method that quantifies host population structure based on phylogenetic trees, which are obtained from pathogen genetic sequence data. Our method is based on a maximum-likelihood framework and uses a multi-type branching process, under which each host is assigned to a type (subpopulation). In a simulation study, we show that our method produces accurate parameter estimates for phylogenetic trees in which each tip is assigned to a type, as well for phylogenetic trees in which the type of the tip is unknown. We apply the method to a Latvian HIV-1 dataset, quantifying the impact of the intravenous drug user epidemic on the heterosexual epidemic (known tip states), and identifying superspreader dynamics within the men-having-sex-with-men epidemic (unknown tip states).     

The epidemiological characteristics of HIV infection in Turkmenistan

In the presence of the low spread of HIV infection a sharp increase in sexually transmitted diseases is noted. Nevertheless, taking into account a rise in STD, the reality of the potential risk of the spread of HIV is emphasized. Thus, in 1996 morbidity is syphilis was found to grow 7.2 times in comparison with 1992, amounting to 37.5 cases per 100,000 of the population; morbidity in gonorrhea amounted to 32.4 cases per 100,000 of the population with the proportion coming to medical institutions not exceeding 30%. A high proportion of hepatitis B virus carriers was also established (from 15% to 30% of healthy persons), while morbidity in virus hepatitides rose twofold for the period of 1994-1995. During recent years the service for the prophylaxis of AIDS was noted to considerably decrease measures on mass screening. At the same time the article attracts attention to the necessity of increasing the work on the dissemination of information and education on HIV/AIDS drug among addicts, prostitutes and homosexuals. The Draft National Program of the Prophylaxis of HIV infection and STD for 1998-2002 has been worked out. Great importance of methodological and financial assistance rendered since 1994 by international organizations, including WHO, UNFPA, etc., have been emphasized.     

Global dynamics of an epidemiological model with age of infection and disease relapse

In this paper, an epidemiological model with age of infection and disease relapse is investigated. The basic reproduction number for the model is identified, and it is shown to be a sharp threshold to completely determine the global dynamics of the model. By analysing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of a disease-free steady state and an endemic steady state of the model is established. By means of suitable Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle's invariance principle, it is verified that if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, the disease-free steady state is globally asymptotically stable, and hence the disease dies out; if the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, the endemic steady state is globally asymptotically stable and the disease becomes endemic.     

Linking immunological and epidemiological dynamics of HIV: the case of super-infection

In this paper, a two-strain model that links immunological and epidemiological dynamics across scales is formulated. On the within-host scale, the two strains eliminate each other with the strain with the larger immunological reproduction persisting. However, on the population scale superinfection is possible, with the strain with larger immunological reproduction number super-infecting the strain with the smaller immunological reproduction number. The two models are linked through the age-since-infection structure of the epidemiological variables. In addition, the between-host transmission and the disease-induced death rate depend on the within-host viral load. The immunological reproduction numbers, the epidemiological reproduction numbers and invasion reproduction numbers are computed. Besides the disease-free equilibrium, there are two population-level strain one and strain two isolated equilibria, as well as a population-level coexistence equilibrium when both invasion reproduction numbers are greater than one. The single-strain population-level equilibria are locally asymptotically stable suggesting that in the absence of superinfection oscillations do not occur, a result contrasting previous studies of HIV age-since-infection structured models. Simulations suggest that the epidemiological reproduction number and HIV population prevalence are monotone functions of the within-host parameters with reciprocal trends. In particular, HIV medications that decrease within-host viral load also increase overall population prevalence. The effect of the immunological parameters on the population reproduction number and prevalence is more pronounced when the initial viral load is lower.     

Malignant tumours in patients with HIV infection.

One of the most important though somewhat neglected aspects of research in HIV infection concerns the development, clinicopathological characteristics, and treatment of malignant tumours in infected patients. With the improved survival of patients with AIDS owing to the better prevention and treatment of infectious complications there may well be an increase in AIDS related malignancies. This paper reviews the epidemiology, pathology, and treatment of malignant tumours in patients with HIV.     

The organization of an epidemiological surveillance of HIV infection in Krasnodar Territory

For the first time a case of AIDS was detected in the Krasnodar Territory of the USSR, and the presence of HIV infection in homosexuals, foreign students, and promiscuous persons was established. To study the spread of HIV infection, 5 diagnostic laboratories were created and 5 routes for the transportation of sera were organized. This permitted the screening of the population in 1988 with the complete coverage of groups to be placed under surveillance.     

Impact of gene-modified T cells on HIV infection dynamics

Previous clinical trials in HIV-infected patients involving infusion of T cells protected by an antiviral gene have failed to show any therapeutic benefit. The value of such a treatment approach is thus still highly controversial. In this study, the anticipated effects of gene-modified cells on virus and T-cell kinetics are analysed by mathematical modeling. Because technically only a small fraction of all T cells in a patient can be manipulated ex vivo, therapeutic success will depend on the accumulation of gene-modified cells after infusion into the patient by in vivo selection. Our simulations predict that a significant therapeutic benefit is conferred only by antiviral genes that inhibit HIV replication before virus integration (class I genes). Genes that inhibit viral protein expression (class II, used in previous clinical trials), require a much higher inhibitory activity than class I genes to promote the regeneration of T cells and reduce the viral load. Inhibition of virus assembly and release alone (class III) confers no selective advantage to the T cell and is therefore ineffective unless combined with class I (or, possibly, class II) genes. Also crucial in determining the clinical outcome are the regenerative capacity of the gene-modified cells and the level of HIV replication in the patient. These results can be important for guiding future strategies in the field of gene therapy for HIV infection.     

Modeling adaptive regulatory T-cell dynamics during early HIV infection

Regulatory T-cells (Tregs) are a subset of CD4(+) T-cells that have been found to suppress the immune response. During HIV viral infection, Treg activity has been observed to have both beneficial and deleterious effects on patient recovery; however, the extent to which this is regulated is poorly understood. We hypothesize that this dichotomy in behavior is attributed to Treg dynamics changing over the course of infection through the proliferation of an 'adaptive' Treg population which targets HIV-specific immune responses. To investigate the role Tregs play in HIV infection, a delay differatial equation model was constructed to examine (1) the possible existence of two distinct Treg populations, normal (nTregs) and adaptive (aTregs), and (2) their respective effects in limiting viral load. Sensitivity analysis was performed to test parameter regimes that show the proportionality of viral load with adaptive regulatory populations and also gave insight into the importance of downregulation of CD4(+) cells by normal Tregs on viral loads. Through the inclusion of Treg populations in the model, a diverse array of viral dynamics was found. Specifically, oscillatory and steady state behaviors were both witnessed and it was seen that the model provided a more accurate depiction of the effector cell population as compared with previous models. Through further studies of adaptive and normal Tregs, improved treatments for HIV can be constructed for patients and the viral mechanisms of infection can be further elucidated.     

The principles of pre-epidemic diagnosis in the epidemiological surveillance system for HIV infection

The problem of the general introduction of the principles of the pre-epidemic diagnostics of HIV infection was discussed. These principles should be based on the observation of "model" infections (viral hepatitides B, C, D), multipurpose serological monitoring and sociological methods aimed at obtaining the necessary information. The suggestion that the age and sexual structure of HIV-infected patients would be determined by the route of HIV transmission, prevailing on a given territory, including into infection process adolescents and young women and men was made.     

Modelling the natural history of HIV infection in individuals and its epidemiological implications

The variation of viraemia in the natural course of HIV infection is expected to have major influence on the probability of transmission and, consequently, on the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS. In this paper we propose a model which takes into account the time evolution of HIV viraemia (measured as HIV-RNA copies per ml of blood) in an infected individual and its impact on the threshold for the establishment of an endemic level, and mainly on the relative contribution of each of the clinical phases of the infection to the total transmission of HIV per infected individual. We consider that an infected individual passes through three phases of viraemia. The first phase, which lasts for 6–7 weeks, is characterized by very high viraemia. In the second phase, which lasts about 10 years, the viraemia is much lower, increasing again in the last phase, which lasts up to two years, and ends in full-blown AIDS. We show that the relative contribution of each phase to the total transmission of HIV is very sensitive to the model we assume for the dependence of the transmissibility of HIV on the viral load. For instance, if we assume that transmissibility is proportional to the decimal logarithm of viraemia, then the second phase predominates always. Due to the epidemiological importance of this fact, it is clear that further improvement on virological research to better understand the dependence of HIV transmissibility on the viral concentration in biological fluids is necessary.     

The challenges of modelling antibody repertoire dynamics in HIV infection

Antibody affinity maturation by somatic hypermutation of B-cell immunoglobulin variable region genes has been studied for decades in various model systems using well-defined antigens. While much is known about the molecular details of the process, our understanding of the selective forces that generate affinity maturation are less well developed, particularly in the case of a co-evolving pathogen such as HIV. Despite this gap in understanding, high-throughput antibody sequence data are increasingly being collected to investigate the evolutionary trajectories of antibody lineages in HIV-infected individuals. Here, we review what is known in controlled experimental systems about the mechanisms underlying antibody selection and compare this to the observed temporal patterns of antibody evolution in HIV infection. We describe how our current understanding of antibody selection mechanisms leaves questions about antibody dynamics in HIV infection unanswered. Without a mechanistic understanding of antibody selection in the context of a co-evolving viral population, modelling and analysis of antibody sequences in HIV-infected individuals will be limited in their interpretation and predictive ability.     

Variable effect of co-infection on the HIV infectivity: Within-host dynamics and epidemiological significance

Background

Recent studies have implicated viral characteristics in accounting for the variation in the HIV set-point viral load (spVL) observed among individuals. These studies have suggested that the spVL might be a heritable factor. The spVL, however, is not in an absolute equilibrium state; it is frequently perturbed by immune activations generated by co-infections, resulting in a significant amplification of the HIV viral load (VL). Here, we postulated that if the HIV replication capacity were an important determinant of the spVL, it would also determine the effect of co-infection on the VL. Then, we hypothesized that viral factors contribute to the variation of the effect of co-infection and introduce variation among individuals.

Methods

We developed a within-host deterministic differential equation model to describe the dynamics of HIV and malaria infections, and evaluated the effect of variations in the viral replicative capacity on the VL burden generated by co-infection. These variations were then evaluated at population level by implementing a between-host model in which the relationship between VL and the probability of HIV transmission per sexual contact was used as the within-host and between-host interface.

Results

Our within-host results indicated that the combination of parameters generating low spVL were unable to produce a substantial increase in the VL in response to co-infection. Conversely, larger spVL were associated with substantially larger increments in the VL. In accordance, the between-host model indicated that co-infection had a negligible impact in populations where the virus had low replicative capacity, reflected in low spVL. Similarly, the impact of co-infection increased as the spVL of the population increased.

Conclusion

Our results indicated that variations in the viral replicative capacity would influence the effect of co-infection on the VL. Therefore, viral factors could play an important role driving several virus-related processes such as the increment of the VL induced by co-infections. These results raise the possibility that biological differences could alter the effect of co-infection and underscore the importance of identifying these factors for the implementation of control interventions focused on co-infection.     

Individual predisposition, household clustering and risk factors for human infection with Ascaris lumbricoides: new epidemiological insights

Background

Much of our current understanding of the epidemiology of Ascaris lumbricoides infections in humans has been acquired by analyzing worm count data. These data are collected by treating infected individuals with anthelmintics so that worms are expelled intact from the gastrointestinal tract. Analysis of such data established that individuals are predisposed to infection with few or many worms and members of the same household tend to harbor similar numbers of worms. These effects, known respectively as individual predisposition and household clustering, are considered characteristic of the epidemiology of ascariasis. The mechanisms behind these phenomena, however, remain unclear. In particular, the impact of heterogeneous individual exposures to infectious stages has not been thoroughly explored.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Bayesian methods were used to fit a three-level hierarchical statistical model to A. lumbricoides worm counts derived from a three-round chemo-expulsion study carried out in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The effects of individual predisposition, household clustering and household covariates of the numbers of worms per host (worm burden) were considered simultaneously. Individual predisposition was found to be of limited epidemiological significance once household clustering had been accounted for. The degree of intra-household variability among worm burdens was found to be reduced by approximately 58% when household covariates were included in the model. Covariates relating to decreased affluence and quality of housing construction were associated with a statistically significant increase in worm burden.

Conclusions/Significance

Heterogeneities in the exposure of individuals to infectious eggs have an important role in the epidemiology of A. lumbricoides infection. The household covariates identified as being associated with worm burden provide valuable insights into the source of these heterogeneities although above all emphasize and reiterate that infection with A. lumbricoides is inextricably associated with acute poverty.     

Manifestations of immune deficiency in children with perinatal HIV infection in the treatment dynamics

Clinical and immunological parameters in the children with perinatal HIV infection were investigated in the dynamics of the long-term prospective observation. It was revealed, that all the HIV infected children had clinical signs of immunodeficiency and laboratory signs of combined damage of the immune system. The complex of therapeutic measures, including antiretroviral therapy, prevention of opportunistic and acute respiratory infections, rational immunotherapy to stimulate production of endogenous interferon and normalization of the balance of cytokines significantly reduced the frequency of the clinical manifestations of the infectious syndrome and improved the patients resistance to infections.     

Radiologic pulmonary manifestations in patients with HIV virus infection]

Altogether 155 patients with a newly detected positive reaction to HIV (a human immunodeficiency virus) were investigated in the Republic of Burundi. Chest x-ray was done in 80 of them. Pulmonary tuberculosis was diagnosed in 2 of them, pneumonia (chronic, interstitial and bronchial)--in 15. Enhancement and deformity of lung marking were detected in 45 patients (coincidence with clinical signs of acute bronchitis was found but in 5 of them). A conclusion has been made of interstitial pneumonias being typical of HIV-infected patients and of frequent enhancement of lung marking in the preclinical stage of AIDS.