Use of time‐lapse photography and digital image analysis to estimate breeding success of a cliff‐nesting seabird

Development of new methods for obtaining basic demographic data from difficult‐to‐access breeding colonies and easily disturbed species is an important challenge in studies of seabirds. We describe a method that can generate data concerning annual breeding success of cliff‐nesting seabirds or other colonial birds with open nests. Our method requires only a single visit to a colony every second or third year, and is based on the use of automated time‐lapse photography. To test our method, we used time‐lapse photos to examine the breeding success of Thick‐billed Murres (Uria lomvia) in two breeding colonies in Greenland during the years 2011, 2012, and 2014. Based on the analysis of time‐lapse photos, we found that hatching success during the 3 yr of our study ranged from 60% to 81%, fledging success from 89% to 95%, and breeding success from 53% to 74% (Table 1). Use of digital image analysis made it possible to differentiate between breeding and non‐breeding birds and determine if and when breeding attempts failed or succeeded. The key to making our method a realistic long‐term monitoring technique is the use of an automated, formal image analysis to process the thousands of photos from the time‐lapse cameras and, more specifically, to reduce a large number of photos to a manageable number. Using our method, we needed 12–22 h per study plot, depending on the number of breeding sites per plot (range = 47–127) and whether it was the first or the second time the plot was analyzed, to obtain our estimates of hatching, fledging, and breeding success. This included time for data preparation, image analyses, visual inspections, and summarizing data in a spreadsheet. We found that our estimates of breeding success were comparable to those obtained by direct observation in the field. An important aspect of using time‐lapse technology is to foresee potential reasons why time‐lapse cameras might stop taking pictures, for example, equipment failure (camera, timer, or battery) or interference by visitors (e.g., vandalism or theft). As such, thorough testing of time‐lapse systems and selecting camera locations less likely to be disturbed are most important. We believe that use of time‐lapse photography in combination with digital image analysis to estimate breeding success can be useful for determining the breeding success of other cliff‐nesting seabirds and, more generally, other birds that breed in colonies, especially those located in remote areas and where direct observation may disturb birds.     

Maternal risk of breeding failure remained low throughout the demographic transitions in fertility and age at first reproduction in Finland

Radical declines in fertility and postponement of first reproduction during the recent human demographic transitions have posed a challenge to interpreting human behaviour in evolutionary terms. This challenge has stemmed from insufficient evolutionary insight into individual reproductive decision-making and the rarity of datasets recording individual long-term reproductive success throughout the transitions. We use such data from about 2,000 Finnish mothers (first births: 1880s to 1970s) to show that changes in the maternal risk of breeding failure (no offspring raised to adulthood) underlay shifts in both fertility and first reproduction. With steady improvements in offspring survival, the expected fertility required to satisfy a low risk of breeding failure became lower and observed maternal fertility subsequently declined through an earlier age at last reproduction. Postponement of the age at first reproduction began when this risk approximated zero-even for mothers starting reproduction late. Interestingly, despite vastly differing fertility rates at different stages of the transitions, the number of offspring successfully raised to breeding per mother remained relatively constant over the period. Our results stress the importance of assessing the long-term success of reproductive strategies by including measures of offspring quality and suggest that avoidance of breeding failure may explain several key features of recent life-history shifts in industrialized societies.     

Tropical winter habitat limits reproductive success on the temperate breeding grounds in a migratory bird

Identifying the factors that control population dynamics in migratory animals has been constrained by our inability to track individuals throughout the annual cycle. Using stable carbon isotopes, we show that the reproductive success of a long-distance migratory bird is influenced by the quality of habitat located thousands of kilometres away on tropical wintering grounds. For male American redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla), winter habitat quality influenced arrival date on the breeding grounds, which in turn affected key variables associated with reproduction, including the number of young fledged. Based on a winter-habitat model, females occupying high-quality winter habitat were predicted to produce more than two additional young and to fledge offspring up to a month earlier compared with females wintering in poor-quality habitat. Differences of this magnitude are highly important considering redstarts are single brooded, lay clutches of only three to five eggs and spend only two-and-a-half months on the breeding grounds. Results from this study indicate the importance of understanding how periods of the annual cycle interact for migratory animals. Continued loss of tropical wintering habitat could have negative effects on migratory populations in the following breeding season, minimizing density-dependent effects on the breeding grounds and leading to further population declines. If conservation efforts are to be successful, strategies must incorporate measures to protect all the habitats used during the entire annual cycle of migratory animals.     

Population dynamics in a long-lived seabird: I. Impact of breeding activity on survival and breeding probability in unbanded king penguins

Understanding the trade-off between current reproductive effort, future survival and future breeding attempts is crucial for demographic analyses and life history studies. We investigated this trade-off in a population of king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) marked individually with transponders using multistate capture-recapture models. This colonial seabird species has a low annual proportion of non-breeders (13%), despite a breeding cycle which lasts over 1 year. To draw inferences about the consequences of non-breeding, we tested for an effect of reproductive activity on survival and on the probability of subsequent breeding. We found that birds non-breeding in year t show the same survival rate as breeders (two-states analysis: breeding and non-breeding). However, breeders had a lower probability of breeding again the following year. This negative phenotypic correlation suggests the existence of reproductive costs affecting future breeding probability, but it might also be strengthened by late arrival for courtship in year t. A three-state analysis including breeding success revealed that failed breeders in year t have a lower probability to reproduce successfully in year t + 1 than non-breeders in year t, providing some evidence for the existence of reproductive costs. Moreover, successful breeders showed higher survival probability. This positive phenotypic correlation between current reproduction and subsequent survival supports the hypothesis of an heterogeneity in individual quality. Males breeding in year t had a lower probability to breed again in year t + 1 than females, suggesting higher reproductive costs for this sex. Such additional costs might be due to higher male parental investment in the final phase of chick-rearing, which also delays the arrival of males in year t + 1, and decreases their breeding probability. Our study is the first to explore the breeding biology and the demography of penguins without the disturbance of flipper-bands.     

Individual fitness and the effects of a changing climate on the cessation and length of the breeding period using a 34‐year study of a temperate songbird

Studies of the phenological responses of animals to climate change typically emphasize the initiation of breeding although climatic effects on the cessation and length of the breeding period may be as or more influential of fitness. We quantified links between climate, the cessation and length of the breeding period, and individual survival and reproduction using a 34‐year study of a resident song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) population subject to dramatic variation in climate. We show that the cessation and length of the breeding period varied strongly across years, and predicted female annual fecundity but not survival. Breeding period length was more influential of fecundity than initiation or cessation of breeding alone. Warmer annual temperature and drier winters and summers predicted an earlier cessation of breeding. Population density, the date breeding was initiated, a female's history of breeding success, and the number of breeding attempts initiated previously also predicted the cessation of breeding annually, indicating that climatic, population, and individual factors may interact to affect breeding phenology. Linking climate projections to our model results suggests that females will both initiate and cease breeding earlier in the future; this will have opposite effects on individual reproductive rate because breeding earlier is expected to increase fecundity, whereas ceasing breeding earlier should reduce it. Identifying factors affecting the cessation and length of the breeding period in multiparous species may be essential to predicting individual fitness and population demography. Given a rich history of studies on the initiation of breeding in free‐living species, re‐visiting those data to estimate climatic effects on the cessation and length of breeding should improve our ability to predict the impacts of climate change on multiparous species.     

Senescence and carryover effects of reproductive performance influence migration,condition, and breeding propensity in a small shorebird

Breeding propensity, the probability that an animal will attempt to breed each year, is perhaps the least understood demographic process influencing annual fecundity. Breeding propensity is ecologically complex, as associations among a variety of intrinsic and extrinsic factors may interact to affect an animal's breeding decisions. Individuals that opt not to breed can be more difficult to detect than breeders, which can (1) lead to difficulty in estimation of breeding propensity, and (2) bias other demographic parameters. We studied the effects of sex, age, and population reproductive success on the survival and breeding propensity of a migratory shorebird, the piping plover (Charadrius melodus ), nesting on the Missouri River. We used a robust design Barker model to estimate true survival and breeding propensity and found survival decreased as birds aged and did so more quickly for males than females. Monthly survival during the breeding season was lower than during migration or the nonbreeding season. Males were less likely to skip breeding (range: 1–17%) than females (range: 3–26%; β_sex = ?0.21, 95% CI: ?0.38 to ?0.21), and both sexes were less likely to return to the breeding grounds following a year of high reproductive success. Birds that returned in a year following relatively high population‐wide reproductive output were in poorer condition than following a year with lower reproductive output. Younger adult birds and females were more likely to migrate from the breeding area earlier than older birds and males; however, all birds stayed on the breeding grounds longer when nest survival was low, presumably because of renesting attempts. Piping plovers used a variety of environmental and demographic cues to inform their reproduction, employing strategies that could maximize fitness on average. Our results support the “disposable soma” theory of aging and follow with predictions from life history theory, exhibiting the intimate connections among the core ecological concepts of senescence, carryover effects, and life history.     

Multiple paternity in an aggregate breeding amphibian: the effect of reproductive skew on estimates of male reproductive success

Aggregate, or explosive, breeding is widespread among vertebrates and likely increases the probability of multiple paternity. We assessed paternity in seven field-collected clutches of the explosively breeding spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) using 10 microsatellite loci to determine the frequency of multiple paternity and the number of males contributing to a female's clutch. Using the Minimum Method of allele counts, multiple paternity was evident in 70% of these egg masses. Simple allele counts underestimate the number of contributing males because this method cannot distinguish multiple fathers with common or similar alleles. Therefore, we used computer simulations to estimate from the offspring genotypes the most likely number of contributing fathers given the distributions of allele frequencies in this population. We determined that two to eight males may contribute to A. maculatum clutches; therefore, multiple paternity is a common strategy in this aggregate breeding species. In aggregate mating systems competition for mates can be intense, thus differential reproductive success (reproductive skew) among males contributing to a female's clutch could be a probable outcome. We use our data to evaluate the potential effect of reproductive skew on estimates of the number of contributing males. We simulated varying scenarios of differential male reproductive success, ranging from equal contribution to high reproductive skew among contributing sires in multiply sired clutches. Our data suggest that even intermediate levels of reproductive skew decrease confidence substantially in estimates of the number of contributing sires when parental genotypes are unknown.     

Female reproductive competition in Eulemur rufifrons: eviction and reproductive restraint in a plurally breeding Malagasy primate

In mammals with female philopatry, co-resident females inevitably compete with each other for resources or reproductive opportunities, thereby reducing the kin-selected benefits of altruism towards relatives. These counteracting forces of cooperation and competition among kin should be particularly pronounced in plurally breeding species with limited alternative breeding opportunities outside the natal group. However, little is still known about the costs of reproductive competition on females' fitness and the victims' potential counter-strategies. Here we summarize long-term behavioural, demographic and genetic data collected on a plurally breeding primate from Madagascar to illuminate mechanisms and effects of female reproductive competition, focusing on forcible eviction and potential reproductive restraint. The main results of our study indicate that females in groups of redfronted lemurs (Eulemur rufifrons) above a critical size suffer from competition from their close relatives: females in larger groups face an increased probability of not giving birth as well as a higher probability of being evicted, especially during the annual mating and birth seasons. Eviction is not predicted by the number of adult females, the number of close female relatives, female age or inter-annual variation in rainfall but only by total group size. Thus, eviction in this species is clearly linked with reproductive competition, it cannot be forestalled by reproductive restraint or having many relatives in the group, and it occurs in the absence of a clear dominance hierarchy. Our study therefore also underscores the notion that potential inclusive fitness benefits from living with relatives may have been generally over-rated and should not be taken for granted.     

Great tits growing old: selective disappearance and the partitioning of senescence to stages within the breeding cycle

Deterioration of reproductive traits with age is observed in an increasing number of species. Although such deterioration is often attributed to reproductive senescence, a within-individual decline in reproductive success with age, few studies on wild animals have focused on direct fitness measures while accounting for selective disappearance and terminal effects, and to our knowledge none have determined how senescence effects arise from underlying reproductive traits. We show for female great tits that such an approach helps understanding of the onset, impact and architecture of senescence. Cross-sectional analysis of 49 years of breeding data shows annual recruit production to decline from 3.5 years of age, this decline affecting 9 per cent of females each year. Longitudinal analyses, however, show that selective disappearance of poor-quality breeders partly masks senescence, which in fact starts at 2.8 years and affects 21 per cent of females each year. There is no evidence for abrupt terminal effects. Analyses of underlying traits show no deterioration in clutch size, but significant declines in brood size and fledgling number. Furthermore, these traits contribute −9, 12 and 39 per cent to the senescent decline in recruit production, respectively. Besides providing detailed knowledge of the patterns and architecture of senescence in a natural population, these results illustrate the importance of modelling individual variation, and facilitate study of the underlying mechanisms of senescence.     

Determining productivity of Maui Parrotbills,an endangered Hawaiian honeycreeper

ABSTRACT Maui Parrotbills (Pseudonestor xanthophrys), critically endangered Hawaiian honeycreepers endemic to the island of Maui, are restricted to a single population of ～500 individuals located in remote, mountainous terrain. From January to June 2006–2011, we located nests and fledglings in the Hanawi Natural Area Reserve (NAR) in east Maui, Hawaii, to document nest success and annual reproductive success. Nest success is a commonly used measure of productivity and is a central component of many demographic studies. Annual reproductive success is less frequently documented because greater effort is required to monitor the reproductive success of breeding pairs through time. However, for species whose nests are difficult to locate or access, such as Maui Parrotbills, the presence or absence of fledged young may provide a more accurate measure of breeding success than monitoring nests. During our study, we located and determined the outcome of 30 nests to document nest success, and monitored 106 territories for the presence or absence of fledglings to calculate annual reproductive success. Nest success probability was 19% (N= 30) and seasonal nest success was 46%. During our monitoring efforts, 49 of 106 breeding pairs produced a single fledged young. Because parrotbills typically have single egg clutches and only re‐nest after nests fail, the presence or absence of a fledgling is an indication of a pair's overall reproductive success for a breeding season. Based on the number of fledglings per pair, our estimate of annual reproductive success was 46%, confirming our initial productivity estimate from nests. Thus, our results indicate that the two methods, determining annual reproductive success by monitoring fledglings and calculating nest success, provide similar estimates of annual productivity for Maui Parrotbills. Based on our estimates, the parrotbill population appears to be demographically stable. However, our productivity estimate was based only on the population at Hanawi, an area representing just 3% of the total range of parrotbills. Thus, our results may not accurately reflect the status of parrotbills over their entire range.     

Age‐related variation in reproductive traits in the wandering albatross: evidence for terminal improvement following senescence

The processes driving age‐related variation in demographic rates are central to understanding population and evolutionary ecology. An increasing number of studies in wild vertebrates find evidence for improvements in reproductive performance traits in early adulthood, followed by senescent declines in later life. However, life history theory predicts that reproductive investment should increase with age as future survival prospects diminish, and that raised reproductive investment may have associated survival costs. These non‐mutually exclusive processes both predict an increase in breeding performance at the terminal breeding attempt. Here, we use a 30‐year study of wandering albatrosses (Diomedea exulans) to disentangle the processes underpinning age‐related variation in reproduction. Whilst highlighting the importance of breeding experience, we reveal senescent declines in performance are followed by a striking increase in breeding success and a key parental investment trait at the final breeding attempt.     

Experimental dissociation of individual quality, food and timing of breeding effects on double-brooding in a migratory songbird

Annual reproductive success in many species is influenced by the number of breeding attempts within a season. Although previous studies have shown isolated effects of female quality, food, and timing of breeding on the probability of female birds producing second broods, to our knowledge, none have tested the relative importance of multiple factors and their interactions using simultaneous manipulations within populations of free-living birds. In this study, we show that individual quality and timing of breeding interact to affect the probability of double-brooding in female mountain bluebirds (Sialia currucoides). High-quality females (those that naturally initiated clutches early in the season) were more likely to double-brood, regardless of whether their hatching date was advanced or delayed, whereas later breeding, lower quality females were much less likely to double-brood when their first attempt was delayed. This indicates that annual fecundity of poorer quality (or younger) female bluebirds may be more sensitive to seasonal variation in environmental conditions. In addition, birds that were provided with supplemental food throughout first breeding attempts were more likely to double-brood in one of the study years, suggesting that female bluebirds may be energetically limited in their capacity to initiate a second brood. Females that had their first brood delayed also had a shorter inter-brood interval and were moulting fewer feathers during second broods compared to controls, while females in better condition showed more advanced moult in second breeding attempts. Taken together, our results demonstrate the combined effects of age- or individual quality-mediated energetic trade-offs between current and future reproduction, and between investments in offspring and self-maintenance, on annual fecundity of female birds.     

The endocrine basis of the reproductive cycle in the king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus)

What is the breeding frequency of the king penguin? More than 30 years of study and five major investigations, did not answer this question owing to the length (14 months) and the spreading (four months of laying) of reproductive events.
Following intensively during three consecutive years nearly 1000 tagged birds in a small colony, we obtained the individual history of a large part of the population. To these demographic and phenological studies, we have associated an endocrinological study validating blood samples and experiments in another colony.
The success or failure of a breeding cycle determines the timing of the subsequent breeding attempt. At Crozet Islands, the king penguin can rear one chick every two years at best: a successful breeding is followed by unsuccessful late breeding (or by non-breeding). So a large part of the population displays an annual periodicity of breeding attempts but with low individual breeding success.
The restarting of the reproductive cycle appears basically to be annual, the pituitary responding to the photoperiod. Steroid patterns present classical variations of level according to the reproductive stage. Prolactin (PRL) and luteinizing hormone (LH) are antagonists but, in this species, PRL remains high without external stimulation. To relay after failure in the field. we have experimentally to break down endogenous PRL. So, we have demonstrated that PRL has a key role in the reproductive cycle.
Paradoxically, the king penguin is an irregular breeder, quasi-biennial, although physiologically an annual breeder. In winter, there is not enough food at sea to rear the chick and during four months, the chick fasts. So a successful breeding cycle, which can be shortened to only nine months in captivity, is extended to more than a year for ecological reasons.     

Reproductive senescence in a cooperatively breeding mammal

1. Senescence (or 'ageing') is a widespread and important process in wild animal populations, but variation in ageing patterns within and between species is poorly understood.
2. In cooperatively breeding species, the costs of reproduction are shared between breeders and one or more helpers. The effects of ageing in breeders may therefore be moderated by the presence of helpers, but there have been very few studies of senescence patterns in natural populations of cooperative breeders.
3. Here, we use 13 years of data from a long-term study population of wild meerkats ( Suricata suricatta ) to investigate age-related changes in several traits known to be key components of reproductive success in females of this species.
4. Four of the six traits studied exhibited significant declines with age, indicating senescence. Litter size, the number of litters produced per year and the number of pups that survived to emergence from the natal burrow per year all increased with female age up to a peak at c. 4 years, and declined steeply thereafter; the mean pup weight at emergence in a given litter declined steadily from age zero.
5. These results provide the first evidence of reproductive senescence in a wild population of a cooperatively breeding vertebrate. Breeding success declined with age despite the sharing of reproductive costs in this species, but further study is needed to investigate whether helping affects other aspects of senescence, including survival.     

Plasticity of moult and breeding schedules in migratory European Stonechats Saxicola rubicola

Timing is crucial in seasonal environments. Passerine birds typically use a combination of physiological mechanisms and environmental cues to ensure that breeding, moult and migration occur without major temporal overlap and under the most favourable conditions. However, late in the breeding season some individuals initiate additional clutches , whereas others initiate moult. Such alternative strategies are thought to reflect trade‐offs between reproductive benefits and timely investment in maintenance and survival. The degree of seasonal plasticity differs between species, depending on the mechanisms that govern their annual routine. Migrants are generally under pressure to complete breeding and moult before the autumn departure and often show little plasticity. We studied seasonal plasticity of breeding and moult schedules in the European Stonechat Saxicola rubicola. This species, an obligate short‐distance migrant in Central Europe, sometimes initiates late clutches after typically at least two earlier breeding attempts. Based on life‐history theory and on observations in captivity, which revealed photoperiodic regulation of breeding and moult, we predicted relatively little seasonal plasticity in Stonechats. We further predicted that reproductive gains of late breeders should be offset by reduced survival. These predictions were tested on long‐term field data, using Underhill–Zucchini models to estimate moult. Late breeding occurred in c. 40% of pairs and increased their reproductive success by a third. Both sexes modified moult timing but in different ways. Late breeding females postponed moult approximately until chick independence without compensating for delay by faster moult. Males started moult on time and overlapped it with breeding, associated with markedly slowed plumage change. Sex differences in moult score increased with lay date, but due to their respective modifications, both sexes delayed moult completion. Nonetheless, we could not detect any evidence for survival costs of late breeding. Breeding and moult of European Stonechats appear relatively flexible, despite migratory schedules and photoperiodic programs for seasonal timing. Individuals can modify seasonal behaviour in late summer, presumably depending on their condition, and may profit considerably from extended breeding.     

Effects of re‐breeding rates on population size estimation of biennial breeders: results from a model based on albatrosses

Estimating total breeding populations (I) for species that exhibit biennial breeding is generally done from counts of individuals that breed in each year (N), but can be complicated by the fact that the proportion of individuals breeding varies from year to year. Partly, this reflects the proportion of individuals that re‐breed in successive years (re‐breeding rate, p), which is largely, although not exclusively, governed by reproductive failure. Here we show that variation in counts of breeding individuals not only reflects changes in total breeding population but can be sensitive to and powerfully driven by variation in p. A simulation of annual field counts of a bird exhibiting biennial breeding was constructed to explore the effect of re‐breeding attempts on estimations of the total breeding population. The model was used to simulate the consequences of adult mortality and different annual patterns of nesting failures on total breeding population estimates, and to explore the consequences of variation in p on N, when total breeding population remains constant. N is shown to be very sensitive to variations in p, so that even short‐term fluctuations in p can cause changes in N that oscillate for many years ahead. We compare our modelled results with real data for Grey‐headed Albatrosses Thalassarche chrysostoma and demonstrate that, when I is held constant in the model, actual counts may be simulated by variations in p only. Normally, I is unknown and is extrapolated from N on the assumption that N mirrors changes in the size of the total population. Consequently, applying average values of p can result in misleading estimates of total breeding population. We recommend that annual counts of breeding individuals are supplemented with annual estimates of p. Field protocols that aim to estimate annual breeding population size from counts of breeding individuals should be complemented by independent measures of rates of re‐breeding and nest failure.     

Life‐history tradeoffs revealed by seasonal declines in reproductive traits of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds

Seasonal declines in breeding performance are widespread in wild animals, resulting from temporal changes in environmental conditions or from individual variation. Seasonal declines might drive selection for early breeding, with implications for other stages of the annual cycle. Alternatively, selection on the phenology of nonbreeding stages could constrain timing of the breeding season and lead to seasonal changes in reproductive performance. We studied 25 taxa of migratory shorebirds (including five subspecies) at 16 arctic sites in Russia, Alaska, and Canada. We investigated seasonal changes in four reproductive traits, and developed a novel Bayesian risk‐partitioning model of daily nest survival to examine seasonal trends in two causes of nest failure. We found strong seasonal declines in reproductive traits for a subset of species. The probability of laying a full four‐egg clutch declined by 8–78% in 12 of 25 taxa tested, daily nest survival rates declined by 1–12% in eight of 22 taxa, incubation duration declined by 2.0–2.5% in two of seven taxa, and mean egg volume declined by 5% in one of 15 taxa. Temporal changes were not fully explained by individual variation. Across all species, the proportion of failed nests that were depredated declined over the season from 0.98 to 0.60, while the proportion abandoned increased from 0.01 to 0.35 and drove the seasonal declines in nest survival. An increase in abandonment of late nests is consistent with a life‐history tradeoff whereby either adult mortality increased or adults deserted the breeding attempt to maximize adult survival. In turn, seasonal declines in clutch size and incubation duration might be adaptive to hasten hatching of later nests. In other species of shorebirds, we found no seasonal patterns in breeding performance, suggesting that some species are not subject to selective pressure for early breeding.     

Changes in age and sex ratios amongst samples of hunter-shot wings from common duck species in Denmark 1982–2010

There are almost no long-term demographic monitoring programmes of commoner waterbird species, yet such data are fundamental to our understanding of drivers of population change. In the present study, we present annual age and sex ratios in samples of shot duck wings forwarded on a voluntary basis by hunters throughout Denmark from 1982 to 2010 for eight common quarry species. Wigeon, Shoveler, Pintail and Goldeneye showed statistically significant declines in the proportions of young birds in the samples, but only Wigeon showed a statistically significant decline in the proportion of females in the adult sample over this period. Amongst Wigeon, the proportions of first winter birds and females were lower amongst the sample shot over decoys compared with those shot without decoys, suggesting these two shooting methods differentially select for young birds and females. However, the slopes of declines in these proportions shot with and without decoys over time did not differ. We found no correlations between North Atlantic Oscillation index values and the proportions of young for any of the species or between May and June temperatures on the breeding areas of Wigeon and the proportions of young in samples derived the following winter. With the exception of Wigeon, little is known about how well the shot duck wing samples reflect the true ratios in the populations, and unravelling the error and bias associated with these samples remains a high future research priority. If long-term declines in age and sex ratio in the wing surveys reflect true trends in the Wigeon population as a whole, we have strong grounds for concern for this population, and effort should be invested in increased demographic surveillance to better understand the causes of these changes. We need improved methods to derive unbiased measures of annual breeding of our common duck species if we are to be better able to understand the population dynamics of these stocks and be effective in their management. In the meantime, the Danish wing survey represents a unique time series of reproductive success for many common migratory duck species and must be maintained and further exploited.     

Delayed timing of breeding as a cost of reproduction

Timing of breeding is a trait with considerable individual variation, often closely linked to fitness because of seasonal declines in reproduction. The drivers of this variation have received much attention, but how reproductive costs may influence the timing of subsequent breeding has been largely unexplored. We examined a population of northern wheatears Oenanthe oenanthe to compare three groups of individuals that differed in their timing of breeding termination and reproductive effort to investigate how these factors may carry over to influence reproductive timing and reproductive output in the following season. Compared to females that bred successfully, females that put in less effort and terminated breeding early due to nest failure tended to arrive and breed earlier in year 2 (mean advancement = 2.2 and 3.3 d respectively). Females that spent potentially more effort and terminated breeding later due to production of a replacement clutch after nest failure, arrived later than other females in year 2. Reproductive output (number of fledglings) in year 2 differed between the three groups as a result of group‐level differences in the timing of breeding in combination with the general seasonal decline in reproductive output. Our study shows that the main cost of reproduction was apparent in the timing of arrival and breeding in this migratory species. Hence, reproductive costs can arise through altered timing of breeding since future reproductive success (including adult survival) is often dependent on the timing of breeding in seasonal systems.     

Invertebrate prey availability limits reproductive success but not breeding population size in suburban House Sparrows Passer domesticus

Factors affecting avian demography and abundance in urban landscapes are poorly understood and this hinders attempts to manage urban bird communities. Several recent studies indicate that lack of invertebrate prey in urban landscapes may constrain avian productivity and fitness relative to that in other habitats. House Sparrow Passer domesticus populations have undergone large declines in many European urban centres and inadequate reproductive success linked to invertebrate availability has been postulated as a potential cause of these declines. We conducted a replicated supplementary feeding experiment to test whether the availability of invertebrate prey limits the breeding success and adult abundance (colony size) of House Sparrows in suburban London, where House Sparrow populations declined by 60% during the decade preceding our study. Daily mealworm provision over two successive breeding seasons, sufficient to provide 82% of chick energy requirements of House Sparrow pairs nesting within 50 m of feeders, had a large positive impact on the abundance of recently fledged birds (+62%), but only a small positive impact, limited mainly to small colonies, on the overall abundance of territorial males. Colony growth was only weakly related to fledgling abundance in the previous year and did not appear to be constrained by nest‐site availability. Conservation interventions that enhance invertebrate availability for suburban House Sparrows may increase reproductive success but are unlikely, on their own, to lead to population growth or recovery.