Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes

With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate.     

Management Strategy Evaluation Applied to Coral Reef Ecosystems in Support of Ecosystem-Based Management

Ecosystem modelling is increasingly used to explore ecosystem-level effects of changing environmental conditions and management actions. For coral reefs there has been increasing interest in recent decades in the use of ecosystem models for evaluating the effects of fishing and the efficacy of marine protected areas. However, ecosystem models that integrate physical forcings, biogeochemical and ecological dynamics, and human induced perturbations are still underdeveloped. We applied an ecosystem model (Atlantis) to the coral reef ecosystem of Guam using a suite of management scenarios prioritized in consultation with local resource managers to review the effects of each scenario on performance measures related to the ecosystem, the reef-fish fishery (e.g., fish landings) and coral habitat. Comparing tradeoffs across the selected scenarios showed that each scenario performed best for at least one of the selected performance indicators. The integrated ‘full regulation’ scenario outperformed other scenarios with four out of the six performance metrics at the cost of reef-fish landings. This model application quantifies the socio-ecological costs and benefits of alternative management scenarios. When the effects of climate change were taken into account, several scenarios performed equally well, but none prevented a collapse in coral biomass over the next few decades assuming a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions scenario.     

The Micronesia Challenge: Assessing the Relative Contribution of Stressors on Coral Reefs to Facilitate Science-to-Management Feedback

Fishing and pollution are chronic stressors that can prolong recovery of coral reefs and contribute to ecosystem decline. While this premise is generally accepted, management interventions are complicated because the contributions from individual stressors are difficult to distinguish. The present study examined the extent to which fishing pressure and pollution predicted progress towards the Micronesia Challenge, an international conservation strategy initiated by the political leaders of 6 nations to conserve at least 30% of marine resources by 2020. The analyses were rooted in a defined measure of coral-reef-ecosystem condition, comprised of biological metrics that described functional processes on coral reefs. We report that only 42% of the major reef habitats exceeded the ecosystem-condition threshold established by the Micronesia Challenge. Fishing pressure acting alone on outer reefs, or in combination with pollution in some lagoons, best predicted both the decline and variance in ecosystem condition. High variances among ecosystem-condition scores reflected the large gaps between the best and worst reefs, and suggested that the current scores were unlikely to remain stable through time because of low redundancy. Accounting for the presence of marine protected area (MPA) networks in statistical models did little to improve the models’ predictive capabilities, suggesting limited efficacy of MPAs when grouped together across the region. Yet, localized benefits of MPAs existed and are expected to increase over time. Sensitivity analyses suggested that (i) grazing by large herbivores, (ii) high functional diversity of herbivores, and (iii) high predator biomass were most sensitive to fishing pressure, and were required for high ecosystem-condition scores. Linking comprehensive fisheries management policies with these sensitive metrics, and targeting the management of pollution, will strengthen the Micronesia Challenge and preserve ecosystem services that coral reefs provide to societies in the face of climate change.     

A clear human footprint in the coral reefs of the Caribbean

The recent degradation of coral reefs worldwide is increasingly well documented, yet the underlying causes remain debated. In this study, we used a large-scale database on the status of coral reef communities in the Caribbean and analysed it in combination with a comprehensive set of socioeconomic and environmental databases to decouple confounding factors and identify the drivers of change in coral reef communities. Our results indicated that human activities related to agricultural land use, coastal development, overfishing and climate change had created independent and overwhelming responses in fishes, corals and macroalgae. While the effective implementation of marine protected areas (MPAs) increased the biomass of fish populations, coral reef builders and macroalgae followed patterns of change independent of MPAs. However, we also found significant ecological links among all these groups of organisms suggesting that the long-term stability of coral reefs as a whole requires a holistic and regional approach to the control of human-related stressors in addition to the improvement and establishment of new MPAs.     

Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change

Cumulative pressures from global climate and ocean change combined with multiple regional and local‐scale stressors pose fundamental challenges to coral reef managers worldwide. Understanding how cumulative stressors affect coral reef vulnerability is critical for successful reef conservation now and in the future. In this review, we present the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability (risk of net decline) up to a point. Specifically, we propose an operational framework for identifying effective management levers to enhance resilience and support management decisions that reduce reef vulnerability. Building on a system understanding of biological and ecological processes that drive resilience of coral reefs in different environmental and socio‐economic settings, we present an Adaptive Resilience‐Based management (ARBM) framework and suggest a set of guidelines for how and where resilience can be enhanced via management interventions. We argue that press‐type stressors (pollution, sedimentation, overfishing, ocean warming and acidification) are key threats to coral reef resilience by affecting processes underpinning resistance and recovery, while pulse‐type (acute) stressors (e.g. storms, bleaching events, crown‐of‐thorns starfish outbreaks) increase the demand for resilience. We apply the framework to a set of example problems for Caribbean and Indo‐Pacific reefs. A combined strategy of active risk reduction and resilience support is needed, informed by key management objectives, knowledge of reef ecosystem processes and consideration of environmental and social drivers. As climate change and ocean acidification erode the resilience and increase the vulnerability of coral reefs globally, successful adaptive management of coral reefs will become increasingly difficult. Given limited resources, on‐the‐ground solutions are likely to focus increasingly on actions that support resilience at finer spatial scales, and that are tightly linked to ecosystem goods and services.     

Caribbean mesophotic coral ecosystems are unlikely climate change refugia

Deeper coral reefs experience reduced temperatures and light and are often shielded from localized anthropogenic stressors such as pollution and fishing. The deep reef refugia hypothesis posits that light‐dependent stony coral species at deeper depths are buffered from thermal stress and will avoid bleaching‐related mass mortalities caused by increasing sea surface temperatures under climate change. This hypothesis has not been tested because data collection on deeper coral reefs is difficult. Here we show that deeper (mesophotic) reefs, 30–75 m depth, in the Caribbean are not refugia because they have lower bleaching threshold temperatures than shallow reefs. Over two thermal stress events, mesophotic reef bleaching was driven by a bleaching threshold that declines 0.26 °C every +10 m depth. Thus, the main premise of the deep reef refugia hypothesis that cooler environments are protective is incorrect; any increase in temperatures above the local mean warmest conditions can lead to thermal stress and bleaching. Thus, relatively cooler temperatures can no longer be considered a de facto refugium for corals and it is likely that many deeper coral reefs are as vulnerable to climate change as shallow water reefs.     

Caribbean reefs of the Anthropocene: Variance in ecosystem metrics indicates bright spots on coral depauperate reefs

Dramatic coral loss has significantly altered many Caribbean reefs, with potentially important consequences for the ecological functions and ecosystem services provided by reef systems. Many studies examine coral loss and its causes—and often presume a universal decline of ecosystem services with coral loss—rather than evaluating the range of possible outcomes for a diversity of ecosystem functions and services at reefs varying in coral cover. We evaluate 10 key ecosystem metrics, relating to a variety of different reef ecosystem functions and services, on 328 Caribbean reefs varying in coral cover. We focus on the range and variability of these metrics rather than on mean responses. In contrast to a prevailing paradigm, we document high variability for a variety of metrics, and for many the range of outcomes is not related to coral cover. We find numerous “bright spots,” where herbivorous fish biomass, density of large fishes, fishery value, and/or fish species richness are high, despite low coral cover. Although it remains critical to protect and restore corals, understanding variability in ecosystem metrics among low‐coral reefs can facilitate the maintenance of reefs with sustained functions and services as we work to restore degraded systems. This framework can be applied to other ecosystems in the Anthropocene to better understand variance in ecosystem service outcomes and identify where and why bright spots exist.     

Global human footprint on the linkage between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in reef fishes

Difficulties in scaling up theoretical and experimental results have raised controversy over the consequences of biodiversity loss for the functioning of natural ecosystems. Using a global survey of reef fish assemblages, we show that in contrast to previous theoretical and experimental studies, ecosystem functioning (as measured by standing biomass) scales in a non-saturating manner with biodiversity (as measured by species and functional richness) in this ecosystem. Our field study also shows a significant and negative interaction between human population density and biodiversity on ecosystem functioning (i.e., for the same human density there were larger reductions in standing biomass at more diverse reefs). Human effects were found to be related to fishing, coastal development, and land use stressors, and currently affect over 75% of the world's coral reefs. Our results indicate that the consequences of biodiversity loss in coral reefs have been considerably underestimated based on existing knowledge and that reef fish assemblages, particularly the most diverse, are greatly vulnerable to the expansion and intensity of anthropogenic stressors in coastal areas.     

Ecosystem‐based management of coral reefs under climate change

Coral reefs provide food and livelihoods for hundreds of millions of people as well as harbour some of the highest regions of biodiversity in the ocean. However, overexploitation, land‐use change and other local anthropogenic threats to coral reefs have left many degraded. Additionally, coral reefs are faced with the dual emerging threats of ocean warming and acidification due to rising CO₂ emissions, with dire predictions that they will not survive the century. This review evaluates the impacts of climate change on coral reef organisms, communities and ecosystems, focusing on the interactions between climate change factors and local anthropogenic stressors. It then explores the shortcomings of existing management and the move towards ecosystem‐based management and resilience thinking, before highlighting the need for climate change‐ready marine protected areas (MPAs), reduction in local anthropogenic stressors, novel approaches such as human‐assisted evolution and the importance of sustainable socialecological systems. It concludes that designation of climate change‐ready MPAs, integrated with other management strategies involving stakeholders and participation at multiple scales such as marine spatial planning, will be required to maximise coral reef resilience under climate change. However, efforts to reduce carbon emissions are critical if the long‐term efficacy of local management actions is to be maintained and coral reefs are to survive.     

High macroalgal cover and low coral recruitment undermines the potential resilience of the world's southernmost coral reef assemblages

Coral reefs are under increasing pressure from anthropogenic and climate-induced stressors. The ability of reefs to reassemble and regenerate after disturbances (i.e., resilience) is largely dependent on the capacity of herbivores to prevent macroalgal expansion, and the replenishment of coral populations through larval recruitment. Currently there is a paucity of this information for higher latitude, subtropical reefs. To assess the potential resilience of the benthic reef assemblages of Lord Howe Island (31°32'S, 159°04'E), the worlds' southernmost coral reef, we quantified the benthic composition, densities of juvenile corals (as a proxy for coral recruitment), and herbivorous fish communities. Despite some variation among habitats and sites, benthic communities were dominated by live scleractinian corals (mean cover 37.4%) and fleshy macroalgae (20.9%). Live coral cover was higher than in most other subtropical reefs and directly comparable to lower latitude tropical reefs. Juvenile coral densities (0.8 ind.m(-2)), however, were 5-200 times lower than those reported for tropical reefs. Overall, macroalgal cover was negatively related to the cover of live coral and the density of juvenile corals, but displayed no relationship with herbivorous fish biomass. The biomass of herbivorous fishes was relatively low (204 kg.ha(-1)), and in marked contrast to tropical reefs was dominated by macroalgal browsing species (84.1%) with relatively few grazing species. Despite their extremely low biomass, grazing fishes were positively related to both the density of juvenile corals and the cover of bare substrata, suggesting that they may enhance the recruitment of corals through the provision of suitable settlement sites. Although Lord Howe Islands' reefs are currently coral-dominated, the high macroalgal cover, coupled with limited coral recruitment and low coral growth rates suggest these reefs may be extremely susceptible to future disturbances.     

Modelling Coral Reef Futures to Inform Management: Can Reducing Local-Scale Stressors Conserve Reefs under Climate Change?

Climate change has emerged as a principal threat to coral reefs, and is expected to exacerbate coral reef degradation caused by more localised stressors. Management of local stressors is widely advocated to bolster coral reef resilience, but the extent to which management of local stressors might affect future trajectories of reef state remains unclear. This is in part because of limited understanding of the cumulative impact of multiple stressors. Models are ideal tools to aid understanding of future reef state under alternative management and climatic scenarios, but to date few have been sufficiently developed to be useful as decision support tools for local management of coral reefs subject to multiple stressors. We used a simulation model of coral reefs to investigate the extent to which the management of local stressors (namely poor water quality and fishing) might influence future reef state under varying climatic scenarios relating to coral bleaching. We parameterised the model for Bolinao, the Philippines, and explored how simulation modelling can be used to provide decision support for local management. We found that management of water quality, and to a lesser extent fishing, can have a significant impact on future reef state, including coral recovery following bleaching-induced mortality. The stressors we examined interacted antagonistically to affect reef state, highlighting the importance of considering the combined impact of multiple stressors rather than considering them individually. Further, by providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao''s reef system, such as which course of management action will most likely to be effective over what time scales and at which sites, we demonstrated the utility of simulation models for supporting management. Aside from providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao''s reef system, our study offers insights which could inform reef management more broadly, as well as general understanding of reef systems.     

Multiple stressor effects on coral reef ecosystems

Global climate change has profound implications on species distributions and ecosystem functioning. In the coastal zone, ecological responses may be driven by various biogeochemical and physical environmental factors. Synergistic interactions can occur when the combined effects of stressors exceed their individual effects. The Red Sea, characterized by strong gradients in temperature, salinity, and nutrients along the latitudinal axis provides a unique opportunity to study ecological responses over a range of these environmental variables. Using multiple linear regression models integrating in situ, satellite and oceanographic data, we investigated the response of coral reef taxa to local stressors and recent climate variability. Taxa and functional groups responded to a combination of climate (temperature, salinity, air‐sea heat fluxes, irradiance, wind speed), fishing pressure and biogeochemical (chlorophyll a and nutrients ‐ phosphate, nitrate, nitrite) factors. The regression model for each species showed interactive effects of climate, fishing pressure and nutrient variables. The nature of the effects (antagonistic or synergistic) was dependent on the species and stressor pair. Variables consistently associated with the highest number of synergistic interactions included heat flux terms, temperature, and wind speed followed by fishing pressure. Hard corals and coralline algae abundance were sensitive to changing environmental conditions where synergistic interactions decreased their percentage cover. These synergistic interactions suggest that the negative effects of fishing pressure and eutrophication may exacerbate the impact of climate change on corals. A high number of interactions were also recorded for algae, however for this group, synergistic interactions increased algal abundance. This study is unique in applying regression analysis to multiple environmental variables simultaneously to understand stressor interactions in the field. The observed responses have important implications for understanding climate change impacts on marine ecosystems and whether managing local stressors, such as nutrient enrichment and fishing activities, may help mitigate global drivers of change.     

Climate warming, marine protected areas and the ocean-scale integrity of coral reef ecosystems

Coral reefs have emerged as one of the ecosystems most vulnerable to climate variation and change. While the contribution of a warming climate to the loss of live coral cover has been well documented across large spatial and temporal scales, the associated effects on fish have not. Here, we respond to recent and repeated calls to assess the importance of local management in conserving coral reefs in the context of global climate change. Such information is important, as coral reef fish assemblages are the most species dense vertebrate communities on earth, contributing critical ecosystem functions and providing crucial ecosystem services to human societies in tropical countries. Our assessment of the impacts of the 1998 mass bleaching event on coral cover, reef structural complexity, and reef associated fishes spans 7 countries, 66 sites and 26 degrees of latitude in the Indian Ocean. Using Bayesian meta-analysis we show that changes in the size structure, diversity and trophic composition of the reef fish community have followed coral declines. Although the ocean scale integrity of these coral reef ecosystems has been lost, it is positive to see the effects are spatially variable at multiple scales, with impacts and vulnerability affected by geography but not management regime. Existing no-take marine protected areas still support high biomass of fish, however they had no positive affect on the ecosystem response to large-scale disturbance. This suggests a need for future conservation and management efforts to identify and protect regional refugia, which should be integrated into existing management frameworks and combined with policies to improve system-wide resilience to climate variation and change.     

Chronic low-level nutrient enrichment benefits coral thermal performance in a fore reef habitat

Global- and local-scale anthropogenic stressors have been the main drivers of coral reef decline, causing shifts in coral reef community composition and ecosystem functioning. Excess nutrient enrichment can make corals more vulnerable to ocean warming by suppressing calcification and reducing photosynthetic performance. However, in some environments, corals can exhibit higher growth rates and thermal performance in response to nutrient enrichment. In this study, we measured how chronic nutrient enrichment at low concentrations affected coral physiology, including endosymbiont and coral host response variables, and holobiont metabolic responses of Pocillopora spp. colonies in Mo'orea, French Polynesia. We experimentally enriched corals with dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphate for 15 months on an oligotrophic fore reef in Mo'orea. We first characterized symbiont and coral physiological traits due to enrichment and then used thermal performance curves to quantify the relationship between metabolic rates and temperature for experimentally enriched and control coral colonies. We found that endosymbiont densities and total tissue biomass were 54% and 22% higher in nutrient-enriched corals, respectively, relative to controls. Algal endosymbiont nitrogen content cell⁻¹ was 44% lower in enriched corals relative to the control colonies. In addition, thermal performance metrics indicated that the maximal rate of performance for gross photosynthesis was 29% higher and the rate of oxygen evolution at a reference temperature (26.8 °C) for gross photosynthesis was 33% higher in enriched colonies compared to the control colonies. These differences were not attributed to symbiont community composition between corals in different treatments, as C42, a symbiont type in the Cladocopium genus, was the dominant endosymbiont type found in all corals. Together, our results show that in an oligotrophic fore reef environment, nutrient enrichment can cause changes in coral endosymbiont physiology that increase the performance of the coral holobiont.

     

Water contamination reduces the tolerance of coral larvae to thermal stress

Coral reefs are highly susceptible to climate change, with elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) posing one of the main threats to coral survival. Successful recruitment of new colonies is important for the recovery of degraded reefs following mortality events. Coral larvae require relatively uncontaminated substratum on which to metamorphose into sessile polyps, and the increasing pollution of coastal waters therefore constitutes an additional threat to reef resilience. Here we develop and analyse a model of larval metamorphosis success for two common coral species to quantify the interactive effects of water pollution (copper contamination) and SST. We identify thresholds of temperature and pollution that prevent larval metamorphosis, and evaluate synergistic interactions between these stressors. Our analyses show that halving the concentration of Cu can protect corals from the negative effects of a 2-3°C increase in SST. These results demonstrate that effective mitigation of local impacts can reduce negative effects of global stressors.     

Life histories predict coral community disassembly under multiple stressors

Climate change is reshaping biological communities against a background of existing human pressure. Evaluating the impacts of multiple stressors on community dynamics can be particularly challenging in species‐rich ecosystems, such as coral reefs. Here, we investigate whether life‐history strategies and cotolerance to different stressors can predict community responses to fishing and temperature‐driven bleaching using a 20‐year time series of coral assemblages in Kenya. We found that the initial life‐history composition of coral taxa largely determined the impacts of bleaching and coral loss. Prior to the 1998 bleaching event, coral assemblages within no‐take marine reserves were composed of three distinct life histories – competitive, stress‐tolerant and weedy– and exhibited strong declines following bleaching with limited subsequent recovery. In contrast, fished reefs had lower coral cover, fewer genera and were composed of stress‐tolerant and weedy corals that were less affected by bleaching over the long term. Despite these general patterns, we found limited evidence for cotolerance as coral genera and life histories were variable in their sensitivities to fishing and bleaching. Overall, fishing and bleaching have reduced coral diversity and led to altered coral communities of ‘survivor’ species with stress‐tolerant and weedy life histories. Our findings are consistent with expectations that climate change interacting with existing human pressure will result in the loss of coral diversity and critical reef habitat.     

Rehabilitation of coral reefs through removal of macroalgae: state of knowledge and considerations for management and implementation

Coral reef ecosystems are under increasing pressure by multiple stressors that degrade reef condition and function. Although improved management systems have yielded benefits in many regions, broad‐scale declines continue and additional practical and effective solutions for reef conservation and management are urgently needed. Ecological interventions to assist or enhance ecosystem recovery are standard practice in many terrestrial management regimes, and they are now increasingly being implemented in the marine environment. Intervention activities in coral reef systems include the control of coral predators (e.g. crown‐of‐thorns starfish), substrate modification, the creation of artificial habitats and the cultivation, transplantation, and assisted recruitment of corals. On many coastal reefs, corals face competition and overgrowth by fleshy macroalgae whose abundance may be elevated due to acute disturbance events, chronic nutrient enrichment, and reduced herbivory. Active macroalgae removal has been proposed and trialed as a management tool to reduce competition between algae and corals and provide space for coral recruitment, in the hope of restoring the spatial dominance of habitat‐forming corals. However, macroalgae removal has received little formal attention as a method of reef restoration. This review synthesizes available knowledge of the ecological role of macroalgae on coral reefs and the potential benefits and risks associated with their active removal.     

Shifting paradigms in restoration of the world's coral reefs

Many ecosystems around the world are rapidly deteriorating due to both local and global pressures, and perhaps none so precipitously as coral reefs. Management of coral reefs through maintenance (e.g., marine‐protected areas, catchment management to improve water quality), restoration, as well as global and national governmental agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., the 2015 Paris Agreement) is critical for the persistence of coral reefs. Despite these initiatives, the health and abundance of corals reefs are rapidly declining and other solutions will soon be required. We have recently discussed options for using assisted evolution (i.e., selective breeding, assisted gene flow, conditioning or epigenetic programming, and the manipulation of the coral microbiome) as a means to enhance environmental stress tolerance of corals and the success of coral reef restoration efforts. The 2014–2016 global coral bleaching event has sharpened the focus on such interventionist approaches. We highlight the necessity for consideration of alternative (e.g., hybrid) ecosystem states, discuss traits of resilient corals and coral reef ecosystems, and propose a decision tree for incorporating assisted evolution into restoration initiatives to enhance climate resilience of coral reefs.     

The effects of top–down versus bottom–up control on benthic coral reef community structure

While climate change and associated increases in sea surface temperature and ocean acidification, are among the most important global stressors to coral reefs, overfishing and nutrient pollution are among the most significant local threats. Here we examined the independent and interactive effects of reduced grazing pressure and nutrient enrichment using settlement tiles on a coral-dominated reef via long-term manipulative experimentation. We found that unique assemblages developed in each treatment combination confirming that both nutrients and herbivores are important drivers of reef community structure. When herbivores were removed, fleshy algae dominated, while crustose coralline algae (CCA) and coral were more abundant when herbivores were present. The effects of fertilization varied depending on herbivore treatment; without herbivores fleshy algae increased in abundance and with herbivores, CCA increased. Coral recruits only persisted in treatments exposed to grazers. Herbivore removal resulted in rapid changes in community structure while there was a lag in response to fertilization. Lastly, re-exposure of communities to natural herbivore populations caused reversals in benthic community trajectories but the effects of fertilization remained for at least 2 months. These results suggest that increasing herbivore populations on degraded reefs may be an effective strategy for restoring ecosystem structure and function and in reversing coral–algal phase-shifts but that this strategy may be most effective in the absence of other confounding disturbances such as nutrient pollution.     

Associations between climate stress and coral reef diversity in the western Indian Ocean

Climatic–oceanographic stress and coral reef diversity were mapped in the western Indian Ocean (WIO) in order to determine if there were associations between high diversity coral reefs and regions with low‐to‐moderate climate stress. A multivariate stress model developed to estimate environmental exposure to stress, an empirical index of the coral community's susceptibility to stress, and field data on numbers of fish and corals taxa from 197 WIO sites were overlain to evaluate these associations. Exposure to stress was modeled from satellite data based on nine geophysical–biological oceanographic characteristics known to influence coral bleaching (i.e. temperature, light, and current variables). The environmental stress model and the coral community's susceptibility index were moderately correlated (r=?0.51) with southern and eastern parts of the WIO identified as areas with low environmental stress and coral communities with greater dominance of bleaching stress‐sensitive taxa. Numbers of coral and fish taxa were positive and moderately correlated (r=0.47) but high diversity regions for fish were in the north and west while diversity was highest for corals in central regions from Tanzania to northwestern Madagascar. Combining three and four of these variables into composite maps identified a region from southern Kenya to northern Mozambique across to northern–eastern Madagascar and the Mascarene Islands and the Mozambique–South Africa border as areas where low‐moderate environmental exposure overlaps with moderate‐high taxonomic diversity. In these areas management efforts aimed at maintaining high‐diversity and intact ecosystems are considered least likely to be undermined by climate disturbances in the near term. Reducing additional human disturbances, such as fishing and pollution, in these areas is expected to improve the chances for their persistence. These reefs are considered a high priority for increased local, national, and international management efforts aimed at establishing coral reef refugia for climate change impacts.