Large predators limit herbivore densities in northern forest ecosystems

There is a lack of scientific consensus about how top-down and bottom-up forces interact to structure terrestrial ecosystems. This is especially true for systems with large carnivore and herbivore species where the effects of predation versus food limitation on herbivores are controversial. Uncertainty exists whether top-down forces driven by large carnivores are common, and if so, how their influences vary with predator guild composition and primary productivity. Based on data and information in 42 published studies from over a 50-year time span, we analyzed the composition of large predator guilds and prey densities across a productivity gradient in boreal and temperate forests of North America and Eurasia. We found that predation by large mammalian carnivores, especially sympatric gray wolves (Canis lupus) and bears (Ursus spp.), apparently limits densities of large mammalian herbivores. We found that cervid densities, measured in deer equivalents, averaged nearly six times greater in areas without wolves compared to areas with wolves. In areas with wolves, herbivore density increased only slightly with increasing productivity. These predator effects are consistent with the exploitation ecosystems hypothesis and appear to occur across a broad range of net primary productivities. Results are also consistent with theory on trophic cascades, suggesting widespread and top-down forcing by large carnivores on large herbivores in forest biomes across the northern hemisphere. These findings have important conservation implications involving not only the management of large carnivores but also that of large herbivores and plant communities.     

Cross-continental differences in patterns of predation: will naive moose in Scandinavia ever learn?

Predation has been recognized as a major selective force in the evolution of behavioural characteristics of mammals. As a consequence of local predator extinction, prey may lose knowledge about natural predators but usually express behavioural adjustments after return of predators. Human harvest may replace natural predation but prey selection may differ from that of natural predators leading to a change in the behavioural response of prey. We show that hunting success (HS) of re-colonizing wolves (Canis lupus) on moose (Alces alces) in Scandinavia was higher than reported in North America, where moose have been continuously exposed to wolves and grizzly bears. We found no evidence that moose expressed behavioural adjustments that lowered the HS of wolves in territories that had been occupied by wolves for up to 21 years. Moose behaviour towards wolves and humans typically differs in Scandinavia compared to North America. We explain the differences found to be caused by variation in predation pressure by large carnivores and the rate, and mode, of human harvest during the twentieth century.     

Moose movement rates are altered by wolf presence in two ecosystems

Predators directly impact prey populations through lethal encounters, but understanding nonlethal, indirect effects is also critical because foraging animals often face trade‐offs between predator avoidance and energy intake. Quantifying these indirect effects can be difficult even when it is possible to monitor individuals that regularly interact. Our goal was to understand how movement and resource selection of a predator (wolves; Canis lupus) influence the movement behavior of a prey species (moose; Alces alces). We tested whether moose avoided areas with high predicted wolf resource use in two study areas with differing prey compositions, whether avoidance patterns varied seasonally, and whether daily activity budgets of moose and wolves aligned temporally. We deployed GPS collars on both species at two sites in northern Minnesota. We created seasonal resource selection functions (RSF) for wolves and modeled the relationship between moose first‐passage time (FPT), a method that discerns alterations in movement rates, and wolf RSF values. Larger FPT values suggest rest/foraging, whereas shorter FPT values indicate travel/fleeing. We found that the movements of moose and wolves peaked at similar times of day in both study areas. Moose FPTs were 45% lower in areas most selected for by wolves relative to those avoided. The relationship between wolf RSF and moose FPT was nonlinear and varied seasonally. Differences in FPT between low and high RSF values were greatest in winter (?82.1%) and spring (?57.6%) in northeastern Minnesota and similar for all seasons in the Voyageurs National Park ecosystem. In northeastern Minnesota, where moose comprise a larger percentage of wolf diet, the relationship between moose FPT and wolf RSF was more pronounced (ave. across seasons: ?60.1%) than the Voyageurs National Park ecosystem (?30.4%). These findings highlight the role wolves can play in determining moose behavior, whereby moose spend less time in areas with higher predicted likelihood of wolf resource selection.     

Encounter frequencies between GPS-collared wolves (Canis lupus) and moose (Alces alces) in a Scandinavian wolf territory

Over 6,000 GPS fixes from two wolves (Canis lupus) and 30,000 GPS fixes from five moose (Alces alces) in a wolf territory in southern Scandinavia were used to assess the static and dynamic interactions between predator and prey individuals. Our results showed that wolves were closer to some of the moose when inside their home ranges than expected if they had moved independently of each other, and we also found a higher number of close encounters (<500 m) than expected. This suggests that the wolves were actively seeking the individual moose within their territory. Furthermore, the wolves showed a preference for moving on gravel forest roads, which may be used as convenient travel routes when patrolling the territory and seeking areas where the moose are. However, due to the particularly large size of the wolf territory combined with relatively high moose densities, the wolves generally spent a very small proportion of their time inside the home range of each individual moose, and the frequency of encounters between the wolves and any particular moose was very low. We suggest that the high moose:wolf ratio in this large Scandinavian wolf territory compared to that typically occurring in North America, results in a relatively low encounter frequency and a low predation risk for individual moose, as the predation pressure is spread over a high number of prey individuals.     

Assessing the influence of prey–predator ratio,prey age structure and packs size on wolf kill rates

Traditional predation theory assumes that prey density is the primary determinant of kill rate. More recently, the ratio of prey‐to‐predator has been shown to be a better predictor of kill rate. However, the selective behavior of many predators also suggests that age structure of the prey population should be an important predictor of kill rate. We compared wolf–moose predation dynamics in two sites, south‐central Scandinavia (SCA) and Isle Royale, Lake Superior, North America (IR), where prey density was similar, but where prey age structure and prey‐to‐predator ratio differed. Per capita kill rates of wolves preying on moose in SCA are three times greater than on IR. Because SCA and IR have similar prey densities differences in kill rate cannot be explained by prey density. Instead, differences in kill rate are explained by differences in the ratio of prey‐to‐predator, pack size and age structure of the prey populations. Although ratio‐dependent functional responses was an important variable for explaining differences in kill rates between SCA and IR, kill rates tended to be higher when calves comprised a greater portion of wolves’ diet (p =0.05). Our study is the first to suggest how age structure of the prey population can affect kill rate for a mammalian predator. Differences in age structure of the SCA and IR prey populations are, in large part, the result of moose and forests being exploited in SCA, but not in IR. While predator conservation is largely motivated by restoring trophic cascades and other top–down influences, our results show how human enterprises can also alter predation through bottom–up processes.     

Conservation of wildlife populations: factoring in incremental disturbance

Progressive anthropogenic disturbance can alter ecosystem organization potentially causing shifts from one stable state to another. This potential for ecosystem shifts must be considered when establishing targets and objectives for conservation. We ask whether a predator–prey system response to incremental anthropogenic disturbance might shift along a disturbance gradient and, if it does, whether any disturbance thresholds are evident for this system. Development of linear corridors in forested areas increases wolf predation effectiveness, while high density of development provides a safe‐haven for their prey. If wolves limit moose population growth, then wolves and moose should respond inversely to land cover disturbance. Using general linear model analysis, we test how the rate of change in moose (Alces alces) density and wolf (Canis lupus) harvest density are influenced by the rate of change in land cover and proportion of land cover disturbed within a 300,000 km² area in the boreal forest of Alberta, Canada. Using logistic regression, we test how the direction of change in moose density is influenced by measures of land cover change. In response to incremental land cover disturbance, moose declines occurred where <43% of land cover was disturbed; in such landscapes, there were high rates of increase in linear disturbance and wolf density increased. By contrast, moose increases occurred where >43% of land cover was disturbed and wolf density declined. Wolves and moose appeared to respond inversely to incremental disturbance with the balance between moose decline and wolf increase shifting at about 43% of land cover disturbed. Conservation decisions require quantification of disturbance rates and their relationships to predator–prey systems because ecosystem responses to anthropogenic disturbance shift across disturbance gradients.     

Black bear (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Ursus americanus</Emphasis>) and wolf (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Canis</Emphasis> spp.) summer diet composition and ungulate prey selectivity in Ontario,Canada

Understanding predator-prey dynamics is an important component of management strategy development for wildlife populations that are directly affected by predation. Ungulates often serve as a significant source of prey for many large mammal predators, and patterns of predation are known to influence population dynamics. Although black bear and wolf diets have been investigated extensively, prey preference has been less commonly examined, especially in analyses that take into account age class (i.e., juvenile and adult) of the ungulate prey. We examined black bear (Ursus americanus), wolf (Canis lupus), and hybrids (Canis spp.) prey preference in Ontario based on the availability of three ungulate species—elk (Cervus elaphus), moose (Alces alces), and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We analyzed the presence of prey items in black bear and wolf scats collected over 3 years by examining prey hair cuticular scale patterns. We applied correction factors to frequencies of occurrence of prey items found in predator scat and related diet composition to the availability of ungulates, determined by fecal pellet transect surveys. In addition, non-ungulate diet items were identified to obtain full diet composition profiles. We found that black bear diet consisted of more than 87% vegetation, and they were opportunistic, not selecting for any particular ungulate species in either adult or juvenile age class. Wolf diet was comprised mainly of ungulates (~?73.2%), muskrat (Ondatra zibethica; ~?8.5%), and beaver (Castor canadensis; ~?14.6%), and although moose were at least 1.5 times more abundant then each of the other ungulate prey species in the study area, wolves preferred elk, using moose less than expected. Although we found black bear diet to be opportunistic during the summer, wolves in our study heavily utilized both juvenile and adult ungulates, however, among ungulate species, displayed preference for elk. The preference displayed by wolves provides insight that wildlife managers can use to guide further investigation and assist with the development of strategies to ensure continued elk reintroduction success, and moose and white-tailed deer population sustainability.     

Wolves,white‐tailed deer,and beaver: implications of seasonal prey switching for woodland caribou declines

Population increases of primary prey can negatively impact alternate prey populations via demographic and behavioural responses of a shared predator through apparent competition. Seasonal variation in prey selection patterns by predators also can affect secondary and incidental prey by reducing spatial separation. Global warming and landscape changes in Alberta's bitumen sands have resulted in prey enrichment, which is changing the large mammal predator–prey system and causing declines in woodland caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou populations. We assessed seasonal patterns of prey use and spatial selection by wolves Canis lupus in two woodland caribou ranges in northeastern Alberta, Canada, that have undergone prey enrichment following recent white‐tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus invasion. We determined whether risk of predation for caribou (incidental prey) and the proportion of wolf‐caused‐caribou mortalities varied with season. We found that wolves showed seasonal variation in primary prey use, with deer and beaver Castor canadensis being the most common prey items in wolf diet in winter and summer, respectively. These seasonal dietary patterns were reflected in seasonal wolf spatial resource selection and resulted in contrasting spatial relationships between wolves and caribou. During winter, wolf selection for areas used by deer maintained strong spatial separation between wolves and caribou, whereas wolf selection for areas used by beaver in summer increased the overlap with caribou. Changing patterns in wolf resource selection were reflected by caribou mortality patterns, with 76.2% of 42 adult female caribou mortalities occurring in summer. Understanding seasonal patterns of predation following prey enrichment in a multiprey system is essential when assessing the effect of predation on an incidental prey species. Our results support the conclusion that wolves are proximately responsible for woodland caribou population declines throughout much of their range.     

Testing the risk of predation hypothesis: the influence of recolonizing wolves on habitat use by moose

Considered as absent throughout Scandinavia for >100 years, wolves (Canis lupus) have recently naturally recolonized south-central Sweden. This recolonization has provided an opportunity to study behavioral responses of moose (Alces alces) to wolves. We used satellite telemetry locations from collared moose and wolves to determine whether moose habitat use was affected by predation risk based on wolf use distributions. Moose habitat use was influenced by reproductive status and time of day and showed a different selection pattern between winter and summer, but there was weak evidence that moose habitat use depended on predation risk. The seemingly weak response may have several underlying explanations that are not mutually exclusive from the long term absence of non-human predation pressure: intensive harvest by humans during the last century is more important than wolf predation as an influence on moose behavior; moose have not adapted to recolonizing wolves; and responses may include other behavioral adaptations or occur at finer temporal and spatial levels than investigated.     

Ecosystem Scale Declines in Elk Recruitment and Population Growth with Wolf Colonization: A Before-After-Control-Impact Approach

The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk – Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.     

Diet quality in a wild grazer declines under the threat of an ambush predator

Predators influence prey populations not only through predation itself, but also indirectly through prompting changes in prey behaviour. The behavioural adjustments of prey to predation risk may carry nutritional costs, but this has seldom been studied in the wild in large mammals. Here, we studied the effects of an ambush predator, the African lion (Panthera leo), on the diet quality of plains zebras (Equus quagga) in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe. We combined information on movements of both prey and predators, using GPS data, and measurements of faecal crude protein, an index of diet quality in the prey. Zebras which had been in close proximity to lions had a lower quality diet, showing that adjustments in behaviour when lions are within short distance carry nutritional costs. The ultimate fitness cost will depend on the frequency of predator–prey encounters and on whether bottom-up or top-down forces are more important in the prey population. Our finding is the first attempt to our knowledge to assess nutritionally mediated risk effects in a large mammalian prey species under the threat of an ambush predator, and brings support to the hypothesis that the behavioural effects of predation induce important risk effects on prey populations.     

Comparative Patterns of Predation by Cougars and Recolonizing Wolves in Montana's Madison Range

Abstract: Numerous studies have documented how prey may use antipredator strategies to reduce the risk of predation from a single predator. However, when a recolonizing predator enters an already complex predator—prey system, specific antipredator behaviors may conflict and avoidance of one predator may enhance vulnerability to another. We studied the patterns of prey selection by recolonizing wolves (Canis lupus) and cougars (Puma concolor) in response to prey resource selection in the northern Madison Range, Montana, USA. Elk (Cervus elaphus) were the primary prey for wolves, and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) were the primary prey for cougars, but elk made up an increasingly greater proportion of cougar kills annually. Although both predators preyed disproportionately on male elk, wolves were most likely to prey on males in poor physical condition. Although we found that the predators partitioned hunting habitats, structural complexity at wolf kill sites increased over time, whereas complexity of cougar kill sites decreased. We concluded that shifts by prey to structurally complex refugia were attempts by formerly naïve prey to lessen predation risk from wolves; nevertheless, shifting to more structurally complex refugia might have made prey more vulnerable to cougars. After a change in predator exposure, use of refugia may represent a compromise to minimize overall risk. As agencies formulate management strategies relative to wolf recolonization, the potential for interactive predation effects (i.e., facilitation or antagonism) should be considered.     

Mobility of moose—comparing the effects of wolf predation risk,reproductive status,and seasonality

In a predator–prey system, prey species may adapt to the presence of predators with behavioral changes such as increased vigilance, shifting habitats, or changes in their mobility. In North America, moose (Alces alces) have shown behavioral adaptations to presence of predators, but such antipredator behavioral responses have not yet been found in Scandinavian moose in response to the recolonization of wolves (Canis lupus). We studied travel speed and direction of movement of GPS‐collared female moose (n = 26) in relation to spatiotemporal differences in wolf predation risk, reproductive status, and time of year. Travel speed was highest during the calving (May–July) and postcalving (August–October) seasons and was lower for females with calves than females without calves. Similarly, time of year and reproductive status affected the direction of movement, as more concentrated movement was observed for females with calves at heel, during the calving season. We did not find support for that wolf predation risk was an important factor affecting moose travel speed or direction of movement. Likely causal factors for the weak effect of wolf predation risk on mobility of moose include high moose‐to‐wolf ratio and intensive hunter harvest of the moose population during the past century.     

Parasitism-mediated prey selectivity in laboratory conditions and implications for biological control

In agroecosystems, parasitoids and predators may exert top-down regulation and predators for different reasons may avoid or give preference to parasitised prey, i.e., become an intraguild predator. The success of pest suppression with multiple natural enemies depends essentially on predator–prey dynamics and how this is affected by the interplay between predation and parasitism. We conducted a simple laboratory experiment to test whether predators distinguished parasitised prey from non-parasitised prey and to study how parasitism influenced predation. We used a host-parasitoid system, Spodoptera frugiperda and one of its generalist parasitoids, Campoletis flavicincta, and included two predators, the stinkbug Podisus nigrispinus and the earwig Euborellia annulipes. In the experiment, predators were offered a choice between non-parasitised and parasitised larvae. We observed how long it took for the predator to attack a larva, which prey was attacked first, and whether predators opted to consume the other prey after their initial attack. Our results suggest that, in general, female predators are less selective than males and predators are more likely to consume non-parasitised prey with this likelihood being directly proportional to the time taken until the first prey attack. We used statistical models to show that males opted to consume the other prey with a significantly higher probability if they attacked a parasitised larva first, while females did so with the same probability irrespective of which one they attacked first. These results highlight the importance of studies on predator–parasitoid interactions, as well as on coexistence mechanisms in agroecosystems. When parasitism mediates predator choice so that intraguild predation is avoided, natural enemy populations may be larger, thus increasing the probability of more successful biological control.     

Science and Values Influencing Predator Control for Alaska Moose Management

ABSTRACT We encourage informed and transparent decision-making processes concerning the recently expanded programs in Alaska, USA, to reduce predation on moose (Alces alces). The decision whether to implement predator control ultimately concerns what society should value; therefore, policymakers, not objective biologists, play a leadership role. From a management and scientific standpoint, biological support for these predator-control programs requires convincing evidence that 1) predators kill substantial numbers of moose that would otherwise mostly live and be available for harvest, 2) low predation can facilitate reliably higher harvests of moose, 3) given less predation, habitats can sustain more moose and be protected from too many moose, and 4) sustainable populations of Alaska's brown bears (Ursus arctos), black bears (Ursus americanus), and wolves (Canis lupus) will exist in and out of control areas. We reviewed 10 moose mortality studies, 36 case histories, 10 manipulative studies, 15 moose nutrition studies, and 3 recent successful uses of nutrition-based management to harvest excess female moose. Results of these studies support application of long-term, substantial predator control for increasing yield of moose in these simple systems where moose are a primary prey of 3 effective predators. We found no substantive, contradictory results in these systems. However, to identify and administer feasible moose population objectives, recently established moose nutritional indices must be monitored, and regulatory bodies must accept nutrition-based management. In addition, the efficacy of techniques to reduce bear predation requires further study. Predicting precise results of predator control on subsequent harvest of moose will continue to be problematic because of a diversity of changing interactions among biological, environmental, and practical factors. In Alaska, the governor has the prerogative to influence regulations on predator control by appointing members to the Board of Game. At least annually, the Board of Game hears a wide spectrum of public opinions opposing and favoring predator control. We summarized these opinions as well as the societal and cultural values and expectations that are often the primary basis for debates. Advocates on both sides of the debate suggest they hold the higher conservation ethic, and both sides provide biased science. We recommend a more constructive and credible dialogue that focuses openly on values rather than on biased science and fabricated conspiracies. To be credible and to add substance in this divisive political arena, biologists must be well informed and provide complete information in an unbiased and respectful manner without exaggeration.     

Ecologically based definition of seasons clarifies predator–prey interactions

Species interactions within food webs are driven by multiple constraints, including those imposed by seasonal changes in the environment. Ecologically sound definitions of seasons may therefore be a prerequisite for clarifying predator prey interactions. Most studies define biological seasons based on fixed schedules or on temporal changes in a single movement measurement. We used a novel clustering approach based on homogeneous space‐use patterns of GPS‐collared animals to reveal 7 biological seasons for caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou, and 5 for both moose Alces alces and grey wolves Canis lupus interacting in a boreal ecosystem. Subsequent evaluation of niche overlap showed that, as predicted, wolves had a stronger spatio‐temporal connection with moose, its main prey, than with caribou. Movement constraints and limiting resource distributions similarly affected all species in some instances, but also caused temporal changes in the extent of niche overlap between wolves and its two prey. The risk that caribou faced was not only linked to the niche overlap with wolves, but also to the extent of wolf‐moose niche overlap during the same period. Food‐web properties emerged from the analysis, with temporal changes in relative niche overlap reflecting the strength of trophic interactions during the year. Our study demonstrates how the study of trophic interactions can benefit from comprehensive definitions of biological seasons.     

Response of Moose Hunters to Predation following Wolf Return in Sweden

Background

Predation and hunter harvest constitute the main mortality factors affecting the size and dynamics of many exploited populations. The re-colonization by wolves (Canis lupus) of the Scandinavian Peninsula may therefore substantially reduce hunter harvest of moose (Alces alces), the main prey of wolves.

Methodology/Principal findings

We examined possible effects of wolf presence on hunter harvest in areas where we had data before and after wolf establishment (n = 25), and in additional areas that had been continuously exposed to wolf predation during at least ten years (n = 43). There was a general reduction in the total number of moose harvested (n = 31,827) during the ten year study period in all areas irrespective of presence of wolves or not. However, the reduction in hunter harvest was stronger within wolf territories compared to control areas without wolves. The reduction in harvest was larger in small (500-800 km²) compared to large (1,200-1,800 km²) wolf territories. In areas with newly established wolf territories moose management appeared to be adaptive with regard to both managers (hunting quotas) and to hunters (actual harvest). In these areas an instant reduction in moose harvest over-compensated the estimated number of moose killed annually by wolves and the composition of the hunted animals changed towards a lower proportion of adult females.

Conclusions/Significance

We show that the re-colonization of wolves may result in an almost instant functional response by another large predator—humans—that reduced the potential for a direct numerical effect on the density of wolves’ main prey, the moose. Because most of the worlds’ habitat that will be available for future colonization by large predators are likely to be strongly influenced by humans, human behavioural responses may constitute a key trait that govern the impact of large predators on their prey.     

Beyond the encounter: Predicting multi‐predator risk to elk (Cervus canadensis) in summer using predator scats

1. There is growing evidence that prey perceive the risk of predation and alter their behavior in response, resulting in changes in spatial distribution and potential fitness consequences. Previous approaches to mapping predation risk across a landscape quantify predator space use to estimate potential predator‐prey encounters, yet this approach does not account for successful predator attack resulting in prey mortality. An exception is a prey kill site that reflects an encounter resulting in mortality, but obtaining information on kill sites is expensive and requires time to accumulate adequate sample sizes.
2. We illustrate an alternative approach using predator scat locations and their contents to quantify spatial predation risk for elk (Cervus canadensis) from multiple predators in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta, Canada. We surveyed over 1300 km to detect scats of bears (Ursus arctos/U. americanus), cougars (Puma concolor), coyotes (Canis latrans), and wolves (C. lupus). To derive spatial predation risk, we combined predictions of scat‐based resource selection functions (RSFs) weighted by predator abundance with predictions that a predator‐specific scat in a location contained elk. We evaluated the scat‐based predictions of predation risk by correlating them to predictions based on elk kill sites. We also compared scat‐based predation risk on summer ranges of elk following three migratory tactics for consistency with telemetry‐based metrics of predation risk and cause‐specific mortality of elk.
3. We found a strong correlation between the scat‐based approach presented here and predation risk predicted by kill sites and (r = .98, p < .001). Elk migrating east of the Ya Ha Tinda winter range were exposed to the highest predation risk from cougars, resident elk summering on the Ya Ha Tinda winter range were exposed to the highest predation risk from wolves and coyotes, and elk migrating west to summer in Banff National Park were exposed to highest risk of encountering bears, but it was less likely to find elk in bear scats than in other areas. These patterns were consistent with previous estimates of spatial risk based on telemetry of collared predators and recent cause‐specific mortality patterns in elk.
4. A scat‐based approach can provide a cost‐efficient alternative to kill sites of quantifying broad‐scale, spatial patterns in risk of predation for prey particularly in multiple predator species systems.

     

The influence of top-down, bottom-up and abiotic factors on the moose (Alces alces) population of Isle Royale

Long-term, concurrent measurement of population dynamics and associated top-down and bottom-up processes are rare for unmanipulated, terrestrial systems. Here, we analyse populations of moose, their predators (wolves, Canis lupus), their primary winter forage (balsam fir, Abies balsamea) and several climatic variables that were monitored for 40 consecutive years in Isle Royale National Park (544 km2), Lake Superior, USA. We judged the relative importance of top-down, bottom-up and abiotic factors on moose population growth rate by constructing multiple linear regression models, and calculating the proportion of interannual variation in moose population growth rate explained by each factor. Our analysis indicates that more variation in population growth rate is explained by bottom-up than top-down processes, and abiotic factors explain more variation than do bottom-up processes. Surprisingly, winter precipitation did not explain any significant variation in population growth rate. Like that detected for two Norwegian ungulate populations, the relationship between population growth rate and the North Atlantic Oscillation was nonlinear. Although this analysis provides significant insight, much remains unknown: of the models examined, the most parsimonious explain little more than half the variation in moose population growth rate.     

Assessment of Top-Down and Bottom-Up Controls on the Collapse of Alewives (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Alosa pseudoharengus</Emphasis>) in Lake Huron

Food web models are powerful tools to inform management of lake ecosystems, where top-down (predation) and bottom-up (resource) controls likely propagate through multiple trophic levels because of strong predator–prey links. We used the Ecopath with Ecosim modeling approach to assess these controls on the Lake Huron main basin food web and the 2003 collapse of an invasive pelagic prey fish, alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus). We parameterized two Ecopath models to characterize food web changes occurring between two study periods of 1981–1985 and 1998–2002. We also built an Ecosim model and simulated food web time-dynamics under scenarios representing different levels of top-down control by Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and of bottom-up control by quagga mussels (Dreissena rostriformis bugensis) and nutrients. Ecopath results showed an increase in the relative importance of bottom-up controls between the two periods, as production decreased across all trophic levels. The production of non-dreissenid benthos decreased most, which could cause decreases in production of pelagic prey fishes feeding on them. Ecosim simulation results indicated that the alewife collapse was caused by a combination of top-down and bottom-up controls. Results showed that while controls by Chinook salmon were relatively constant before alewife collapse, controls by quagga mussels and nutrients increased jointly to unsustainable levels. Under current conditions of low nutrients and high quagga mussel biomass, simulation results showed that recovery of alewives is unlikely regardless of Chinook salmon biomass in Lake Huron, which implies that the shrinking prey base cannot support the same level of salmonine predators as that prevailed during the 1980s.