Habitat availability and gene flow influence diverging local population trajectories under scenarios of climate change: a place‐based approach

Ecological niche theory holds that species distributions are shaped by a large and complex suite of interacting factors. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to describe species’ niches and predict the effects of future environmental change, including climate change. Currently, SDMs often fail to capture the complexity of species’ niches, resulting in predictions that are generally limited to climate‐occupancy interactions. Here, we explore the potential impact of climate change on the American pika using a replicated place‐based approach that incorporates climate, gene flow, habitat configuration, and microhabitat complexity into SDMs. Using contemporary presence–absence data from occupancy surveys, genetic data to infer connectivity between habitat patches, and 21 environmental niche variables, we built separate SDMs for pika populations inhabiting eight US National Park Service units representing the habitat and climatic breadth of the species across the western United States. We then predicted occurrence probability under current (1981–2010) and three future time periods (out to 2100). Occurrence probabilities and the relative importance of predictor variables varied widely among study areas, revealing important local‐scale differences in the realized niche of the American pika. This variation resulted in diverse and – in some cases – highly divergent future potential occupancy patterns for pikas, ranging from complete extirpation in some study areas to stable occupancy patterns in others. Habitat composition and connectivity, which are rarely incorporated in SDM projections, were influential in predicting pika occupancy in all study areas and frequently outranked climate variables. Our findings illustrate the importance of a place‐based approach to species distribution modeling that includes fine‐scale factors when assessing current and future climate impacts on species’ distributions, especially when predictions are intended to manage and conserve species of concern within individual protected areas.     

Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas

Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient‐protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species’ climate‐driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping‐stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change.     

Predicting the spread of an invasive plant: combining experiments and ecological niche model

Rapid evolutionary adjustments to novel environments may contribute to the successful spread of invasive species, and can lead to niche shifts making range dynamics unpredictable. These effects might be intensified by artificial selection in the course of breeding efforts, since many successful plant invaders were deliberately introduced and cultivated as ornamentals. We hypothesized that the invasion success of Buddleja davidii, the ornamental butterfly bush, is facilitated by local adaptation to minimum temperatures and thus, exhibits unpredictable range dynamics. To assess the potential effects of adaptive evolution and artificial selection on the spread of B. davidii, we combined a common garden experiment investigating local adaptation to frost, with ecological niche modelling of the species’ native and invasive ranges. We expected that populations naturalized in sub‐continental climate are less susceptible to frost than populations from oceanic climate, and that the invasive range does not match predictions based on climatic data from the native range. Indeed, we revealed significant variation among invasive B. davidii populations in frost resistance. However, frost hardiness was not related to geographic location or climatic variables of the populations’ home site, suggesting that invasive B. davidii populations are not locally adapted to minimum temperatures. This is in line with results of our ecological niche model that did not detect a niche shift between the species’ native range in China, and its invasive range in Europe and North America. Furthermore, our niche model showed that the potential invasive range of B. davidii is still not completely occupied. Together with the frost resistance data obtained in our experiment, the results indicate that climatic conditions are currently not limiting the further spread of the species in Europe and North America.     

Cumulative effects of climate and landscape change drive spatial distribution of Rocky Mountain wolverine (Gulo gulo L.)

Contemporary landscapes are subject to a multitude of human‐derived stressors. Effects of such stressors are increasingly realized by population declines and large‐scale extirpation of taxa worldwide. Most notably, cumulative effects of climate and landscape change can limit species’ local adaptation and dispersal capabilities, thereby reducing realized niche space and range extent. Resolving the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on species persistence is a pressing challenge in ecology, especially for declining species. For example, wolverines (Gulo gulo L.) persist on only 40% of their historic North American range. While climate change has been shown to be a mechanism of range retractions, anthropogenic landscape disturbance has been recently implicated. We hypothesized these two interact to effect declines. We surveyed wolverine occurrence using camera trapping and genetic tagging at 104 sites at the wolverine range edge, spanning a 15,000 km² gradient of climate, topographic, anthropogenic, and biotic variables. We used occupancy and generalized linear models to disentangle the factors explaining wolverine distribution. Persistent spring snow pack—expected to decrease with climate change—was a significant predictor, but so was anthropogenic landscape change. Canid mesocarnivores, which we hypothesize are competitors supported by anthropogenic landscape change, had comparatively weaker effect. Wolverine population declines and range shifts likely result from climate change and landscape change operating in tandem. We contend that similar results are likely for many species and that research that simultaneously examines climate change, landscape change, and the biotic landscape is warranted. Ecology research and species conservation plans that address these interactions are more likely to meet their objectives.     

Identifying climatic niche shifts using coarse‐grained occurrence data: a test with non‐native freshwater fish

Aim We tested whether coarse‐grained occurrence data can be used to detect climatic niche shifts between native and non‐native ranges for a set of widely introduced freshwater fishes. Location World‐wide. Methods We used a global database of freshwater fish occurrences at the river basin scale to identify native and non‐native ranges for 18 of the most widely introduced fish species. We also examined climatic conditions within each river basin using fine‐grained climate data. We combined this information to test whether climatic niche shifts have occurred between native and non‐native ranges. We defined climatic niche shifts as instances where the ranges of a climatic variable within native and non‐native basins exhibit zero overlap. Results We detected at least one climatic niche shift for each of the 18 studied species. However, we did not detect common patterns in the thermal preference or biogeographic origin of the non‐native fish, hence suggesting a species‐specific response. Main conclusions Coarse‐grained occurrence data can be used to detect climatic niche shifts. They also enable the identification of the species experiencing niche shifts, although the mechanisms responsible for these shifts (e.g. local adaptation, dispersal limitation or physiological constraints) have yet to be determined. Furthermore, the coarse‐grained approach, which highlights regions where climatic niche shifts have occurred, can be used to select specific river basins for more detailed, fine‐grained studies.     

Species’ thermal preferences affect forest bird communities along landscape and local scale habitat gradients

The spatial distributions of species, and the resulting composition of local communities, are shaped by a complex interplay between species’ climatic and habitat preferences. We investigated this interaction by analyzing how the climatic niches of bird species within given communities (measured as a community thermal index, CTI) are related to vegetation structure. Using 3129 bird communities from the French Breeding Bird Survey and an information theoretic multimodel inference framework, we assessed patterns of CTI variation along landscape scale gradients of forest cover and configuration. We then tested whether the CTI varies along local scale gradients of forest structure and composition using a detailed data set of 659 communities from six forests located in northwestern France. At landscape scale, CTI values decreased with increasing forest cover, indicating that bird communities were increasingly dominated by cold‐dwelling species. This tendency was strongest at low latitudes and in landscapes dominated by unfragmented forest. At local scale, CTI values were higher in mature deciduous stands than in conifer or early stage deciduous stands, and they decreased consistently with distance from the edge of forest. These trends underpin the assertion that species’ habitat use along forest gradients is linked with their climatic niche, although it remains unclear to what extent it is a direct consequence of microclimatic variation among habitats, or a reflection of macroscale correlations between species’ thermal preferences and their habitat choice. Moreover, our results highlight the need to address issues of scale in determining how habitat and climate interact to drive the spatial distribution of species. This will be a crucial step towards accurate predictions of changes in the composition and dynamics of bird communities under global warming.     

Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change

Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth’s surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, “analog-based” velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961–2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and upper bounds on migration rates, can inform conservation of species and locally-adapted populations, respectively, and in combination with backward velocity, a function of distance to a source of colonizers adapted to a site’s future climate, can facilitate conservation of diversity at multiple scales in the face of climate change.     

Tests of species‐specific models reveal the importance of drought in postglacial range shifts of a Mediterranean‐climate tree: insights from integrative distributional,demographic and coalescent modelling and ABC model selection

Past climate change has caused shifts in species distributions and undoubtedly impacted patterns of genetic variation, but the biological processes mediating responses to climate change, and their genetic signatures, are often poorly understood. We test six species‐specific biologically informed hypotheses about such processes in canyon live oak (Quercus chrysolepis) from the California Floristic Province. These hypotheses encompass the potential roles of climatic niche, niche multidimensionality, physiological trade‐offs in functional traits, and local‐scale factors (microsites and local adaptation within ecoregions) in structuring genetic variation. Specifically, we use ecological niche models (ENMs) to construct temporally dynamic landscapes where the processes invoked by each hypothesis are reflected by differences in local habitat suitabilities. These landscapes are used to simulate expected patterns of genetic variation under each model and evaluate the fit of empirical data from 13 microsatellite loci genotyped in 226 individuals from across the species range. Using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we obtain very strong support for two statistically indistinguishable models: a trade‐off model in which growth rate and drought tolerance drive habitat suitability and genetic structure, and a model based on the climatic niche estimated from a generic ENM, in which the variables found to make the most important contribution to the ENM have strong conceptual links to drought stress. The two most probable models for explaining the patterns of genetic variation thus share a common component, highlighting the potential importance of seasonal drought in driving historical range shifts in a temperate tree from a Mediterranean climate where summer drought is common.     

Phylogenetic properties of Tertiary relict flora in the east Asian continental islands: imprint of climatic niche conservatism and in situ diversification

Understanding biodiversity patterns on islands has long been a central aim in ecology and conservation biology. Island‐specific biogeographical processes play substantial roles in the formation of endemic biota. Here, we examined how climate niche conservatism and geohistorical factors are interactively associated with in situ diversification of Tertiary relict flora in the east Asian continental islands. We generated two novel datasets for species distribution and phylogeny that included all of the known vascular plant species in Japan (5575). Then we tested phylogenetic signal of climatic tolerance, in terms of absolute minimum temperature and water balance, and explored environmental predictors of phylogenetic structure (evolutionary derivedness and clustering) of species assemblages. Although phylogenetic signal of climatic tolerance was significant across the phylogeny of most species, the strength of climatic niche conservatism differed among ferns, gymnosperms, angiosperm trees, and angiosperm herbs. For angiosperm trees, cold temperatures acted as environmental filters that generated phylogenetic derivedness/clustering of species assemblages. For fern and angiosperm herb species, however, phylogenetic properties were not associated with climatic harshness. These contrasting patterns among groups reflected climate niche evolution in vascular plants with different growth forms and traits; for example, diversification of angiosperm trees (but not fern and herb) occurred in response to historical climatic cooling. More importantly, geographical constraints contributed to evolutionary radiation that resulted from isolation by distance from the continent or by elevation. Quaternary climate change was also associated with clade‐specific radiation in refugial habitats. The degree to which geographical, geological, and palaeoclimatic variables explain the phylogenetic structure underscores the importance of isolation‐ and habitat‐stability‐related geohistorical processes in driving in situ diversification despite climatic niche conservatism. We propose that the highly endemic flora of the east Asian islands resulted from the interplay of idiosyncratic regional factors, and ecological and evolutionary processes, such as climate niche assembly and adaptive/nonadaptive radiation.     

Quantification of climatic niches in birds: adding the temporal dimension

Quantification of the climatic niche from geographic occurrences is an increasingly important tool for studying species’ relationships to their environment, for example to predict responses to climate change. However, as the geographic distributions of birds are seasonally dynamic, they pose a challenge to carrying out comparable and appropriate quantification of climatic niches. In this review, we first assess how relevant seasonal dynamics are across birds as a whole by compiling a database of migratory behaviour for 10 443 bird species. Second, we examine how studies have quantified climatic niches of birds. Finally, using Australia as a case study, we investigate how well existing distribution datasets represent temporal dynamics by comparing seasonal patterns of species richness obtained from point‐occurrence data with those from range maps and assess the consequences for niche quantification. We provide a consistent classification of migratory behaviour across all birds, and find that a huge variety exists between and within species that should be considered when quantifying climatic niches. Despite this, our review of the literature revealed that seasonal dynamics have often not been accounted for. For future studies, we provide a framework for selecting appropriate occurrence data depending on migratory behaviour and data availability. Our comparison of seasonal species richness patterns obtained from extent‐of‐occurrence range maps and point‐occurrence data suggests that range maps are less able to detect temporal dynamics of bird distributions than point‐occurrence data. We conclude that seasonally explicit range maps combined with climatic data for the corresponding time period can be used to adequately quantify climatic niches for resident birds, but are not adequate to quantify the climatic niches of migratory and nomadic species. Therefore, consistent quantification of climatic niches across all birds requires temporally explicit occurrence points. As such, increasing the availability of occurrence data and methods correcting biases should be a priority.     

Range margin populations show high climate adaptation lags in European trees

How populations of long‐living species respond to climate change depends on phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation processes. Marginal populations are expected to have lags in adaptation (i.e. differences between the climatic optimum that maximizes population fitness and the local climate) because they receive pre‐adapted alleles from core populations preventing them from reaching a local optimum in their climatically marginal habitat. Yet, whether adaptation lags in marginal populations are a common feature across phylogenetically and ecologically different species and how lags can change with climate change remain unexplored. To test for range‐wide patterns of phenotypic variation and adaptation lags of populations to climate, we (a) built model ensembles of tree height accounting for the climate of population origin and the climate of the site for 706 populations monitored in 97 common garden experiments covering the range of six European forest tree species; (b) estimated populations' adaptation lags as the differences between the climatic optimum that maximizes tree height and the climate of the origin of each population; (c) identified adaptation lag patterns for populations coming from the warm/dry and cold/wet margins and from the distribution core of each species range. We found that (a) phenotypic variation is driven by either temperature or precipitation; (b) adaptation lags are consistently higher in climatic margin populations (cold/warm, dry/wet) than in core populations; (c) predictions for future warmer climates suggest adaptation lags would decrease in cold margin populations, slightly increasing tree height, while adaptation lags would increase in core and warm margin populations, sharply decreasing tree height. Our results suggest that warm margin populations are the most vulnerable to climate change, but understanding how these populations can cope with future climates depend on whether other fitness‐related traits could show similar adaptation lag patterns.     

Rates of projected climate change dramatically exceed past rates of climatic niche evolution among vertebrate species

A key question in predicting responses to anthropogenic climate change is: how quickly can species adapt to different climatic conditions? Here, we take a phylogenetic approach to this question. We use 17 time‐calibrated phylogenies representing the major tetrapod clades (amphibians, birds, crocodilians, mammals, squamates, turtles) and climatic data from distributions of > 500 extant species. We estimate rates of change based on differences in climatic variables between sister species and estimated times of their splitting. We compare these rates to predicted rates of climate change from 2000 to 2100. Our results are striking: matching projected changes for 2100 would require rates of niche evolution that are > 10 000 times faster than rates typically observed among species, for most variables and clades. Despite many caveats, our results suggest that adaptation to projected changes in the next 100 years would require rates that are largely unprecedented based on observed rates among vertebrate species.     

Genetically informed ecological niche models improve climate change predictions

We examined the hypothesis that ecological niche models (ENMs) more accurately predict species distributions when they incorporate information on population genetic structure, and concomitantly, local adaptation. Local adaptation is common in species that span a range of environmental gradients (e.g., soils and climate). Moreover, common garden studies have demonstrated a covariance between neutral markers and functional traits associated with a species’ ability to adapt to environmental change. We therefore predicted that genetically distinct populations would respond differently to climate change, resulting in predicted distributions with little overlap. To test whether genetic information improves our ability to predict a species’ niche space, we created genetically informed ecological niche models (gENMs) using Populus fremontii (Salicaceae), a widespread tree species in which prior common garden experiments demonstrate strong evidence for local adaptation. Four major findings emerged: (i) gENMs predicted population occurrences with up to 12‐fold greater accuracy than models without genetic information; (ii) tests of niche similarity revealed that three ecotypes, identified on the basis of neutral genetic markers and locally adapted populations, are associated with differences in climate; (iii) our forecasts indicate that ongoing climate change will likely shift these ecotypes further apart in geographic space, resulting in greater niche divergence; (iv) ecotypes that currently exhibit the largest geographic distribution and niche breadth appear to be buffered the most from climate change. As diverse agents of selection shape genetic variability and structure within species, we argue that gENMs will lead to more accurate predictions of species distributions under climate change.     

Ecological traits influence the phylogenetic structure of bird species co‐occurrences worldwide

The extent to which species’ ecological and phylogenetic relatedness shape their co‐occurrence patterns at large spatial scales remains poorly understood. By quantifying phylogenetic assemblage structure within geographic ranges of >8000 bird species, we show that global co‐occurrence patterns are linked – after accounting for regional effects – to key ecological traits reflecting diet, mobility, body size and climatic preference. We found that co‐occurrences of carnivorous, migratory and cold‐climate species are phylogenetically clustered, whereas nectarivores, herbivores, frugivores and invertebrate eaters tend to be more phylogenetically overdispersed. Preference for open or forested habitats appeared to be independent from the level of phylogenetic clustering. Our results advocate for an extension of the tropical niche conservatism hypothesis to incorporate ecological and life‐history traits beyond the climatic niche. They further offer a novel species‐oriented perspective on how biogeographic and evolutionary legacies interact with ecological traits to shape global patterns of species coexistence in birds.     

Latitudinal gradients in butterfly population variability are influenced by landscape heterogeneity

The variability of populations over time is positively associated with their risk of local extinction. Previous work has shown that populations at the high‐latitude boundary of species’ ranges show higher inter‐annual variability, consistent with increased sensitivity and exposure to adverse climatic conditions. However, patterns of population variability at both high‐ and low‐latitude species range boundaries have not yet been concurrently examined. Here, we assess the inter‐annual population variability of 28 butterfly species between 1994 and 2009 at 351 and 18 sites in the United Kingdom and Catalonia, Spain, respectively. Local population variability is examined with respect to the position of the species’ bioclimatic envelopes (i.e. whether the population falls within areas of the ‘core’ climatic suitability or is a climatically ‘marginal’ population), and in relation to local landscape heterogeneity, which may influence these range location – population dynamic relationships. We found that butterfly species consistently show latitudinal gradients in population variability, with increased variability in the more northerly UK. This pattern is even more marked for southerly distributed species with ‘marginal’ climatic suitability in the UK but ‘core’ climatic suitability in Catalonia. In addition, local landscape heterogeneity did influence these range location – population dynamic relationships. Habitat heterogeneity was associated with dampened population dynamics, especially for populations in the UK. Our results suggest that promoting habitat heterogeneity may promote the persistence of populations at high‐latitude range boundaries, which may potentially aid northwards expansion under climate warming. We did not find evidence that population variability increases towards southern range boundaries. Sample sizes for this region were low, but there was tentative evidence, in line with previous ecological theory, that local landscape heterogeneity may promote persistence in these retracting low‐latitude range boundary populations.     

Predicting small‐mammal responses to climatic warming: autecology,geographic range,and the Holocene fossil record

Forecasting how species will respond to climatic change requires knowledge of past community dynamics. Here we use time‐series data from the small‐mammal fossil records of two caves in the Great Basin of the American West to evaluate how contrasting and variable local paleoclimates have shaped small‐mammal abundance dynamics over the last ～7500 years of climatic change. We then predict how species and communities will respond to future scenarios of increased warming and aridity coupled with continued spread of an invasive annual grass (Bromus tectorum). We find that most community‐level responses to climatic change occur in the mammalian abundance structure at both sites; the dominance of the community by individuals from species with a southern geographic affinity increases with climatic warming. This suggests that responses occurred in situ rather than by the immigration of new taxa over this time interval. Despite predictability at the community‐scale, species‐level relationships between abundance and climate are variable and are not necessarily explained by a species' geographic affinity. Species present at both sites, however, exhibit remarkably similar responses to climate at each site, indicating that species autecology (specifically dietary functional group) is important in determining response to climatic warming. Regression‐tree analyses show remarkable concordance between the two cave faunas and highlight the importance of a granivorous dietary strategy in this desert ecosystem. Under projections of increased temperature and decreased precipitation over the next 50 years, our results indicate that granivores should thrive as communities become more dominated by individuals with a southern geographic affinity. Granivores, however, are negatively impacted by the invasion of cheatgrass. The last century of anthropogenic impacts has thus placed granivores at a greater risk of extinction than predicted under climate‐only scenarios.     

The evolution of climate tolerance in conifer‐feeding aphids in relation to their host's climatic niche

Climate adaptation has major consequences in the evolution and ecology of all living organisms. Though phytophagous insects are an important component of Earth's biodiversity, there are few studies investigating the evolution of their climatic preferences. This lack of research is probably because their evolutionary ecology is thought to be primarily driven by their interactions with their host plants. Here, we use a robust phylogenetic framework and species‐level distribution data for the conifer‐feeding aphid genus Cinara to investigate the role of climatic adaptation in the diversity and distribution patterns of these host‐specialized insects. Insect climate niches were reconstructed at a macroevolutionary scale, highlighting that climate niche tolerance is evolutionarily labile, with closely related species exhibiting strong climatic disparities. This result may suggest repeated climate niche differentiation during the evolutionary diversification of Cinara. Alternatively, it may merely reflect the use of host plants that occur in disparate climatic zones, and thus, in reality the aphid species' fundamental climate niches may actually be similar but broad. Comparisons of the aphids' current climate niches with those of their hosts show that most Cinara species occupy the full range of the climatic tolerance exhibited by their set of host plants, corroborating the hypothesis that the observed disparity in Cinara species' climate niches can simply mirror that of their hosts. However, 29% of the studied species only occupy a subset of their hosts' climatic zone, suggesting that some aphid species do indeed have their own climatic limitations. Our results suggest that in host‐specialized phytophagous insects, host associations cannot always adequately describe insect niches and abiotic factors must be taken into account.     

Evolution of climatic niche specialization: a phylogenetic analysis in amphibians

The evolution of climatic niche specialization has important implications for many topics in ecology, evolution and conservation. The climatic niche reflects the set of temperature and precipitation conditions where a species can occur. Thus, specialization to a limited set of climatic conditions can be important for understanding patterns of biogeography, species richness, community structure, allopatric speciation, spread of invasive species and responses to climate change. Nevertheless, the factors that determine climatic niche width (level of specialization) remain poorly explored. Here, we test whether species that occur in more extreme climates are more highly specialized for those conditions, and whether there are trade-offs between niche widths on different climatic niche axes (e.g. do species that tolerate a broad range of temperatures tolerate only a limited range of precipitation regimes?). We test these hypotheses in amphibians, using phylogenetic comparative methods and global-scale datasets, including 2712 species with both climatic and phylogenetic data. Our results do not support either hypothesis. Rather than finding narrower niches in more extreme environments, niches tend to be narrower on one end of a climatic gradient but wider on the other. We also find that temperature and precipitation niche breadths are positively related, rather than showing trade-offs. Finally, our results suggest that most amphibian species occur in relatively warm and dry environments and have relatively narrow climatic niche widths on both of these axes. Thus, they may be especially imperilled by anthropogenic climate change.     

Acido‐ and neutrophilic temperate forest plants display distinct shifts in ecological pH niche across north‐western Europe

Ecological niches of organisms vary across geographical space, but niche shift patterns between regions and the underlying mechanisms remain largely unexplored. We studied shifts in the pH niche of 42 temperate forest plant species across a latitudinal gradient from northern France to boreo‐nemoral Sweden. We asked 1) whether species restrict their niches with increasing latitude as they reach their northern range margin (environmental constraints); 2) whether species expand their niches with increasing latitude as regional plant species richness decreases (competitive release); and 3) whether species shift their niche position toward more acidic sites with increasing latitude as the relative proportion of acidic soils increases (local adaptation). Based on 1458 vegetation plots and corresponding soil pH values, we modelled species response curves using Huisman–Olff–Fresco models. Four niche measures (width, position, left and right border) were compared among regions by randomization tests. We found that with increasing latitude, neutrophilic species tended to retreat from acidic sites, indicating that these species retreat to more favorable sites when approaching their range margin. Alternatively, these species might benefit from enhanced nitrogen deposition on formerly nutrient‐poor, acidic sites in southern regions or lag behind in post‐glacial recolonization of potential habitats in northern regions. Most acidophilic species extended their niche toward more base‐rich sites with increasing latitude, indicating competitive release from neutrophilic species. Alternatively, acidophilic species might benefit from optimal climatic conditions in the north where some have their core distribution area. Shifts in the niche position suggested that local adaptation is of minor importance. We conclude that shifts in the pH niche of temperate forest plants are the rule, but the directions of the niche shifts and possible explanations vary. Our study demonstrates that differentiating between acidophilic and neutrophilic species is crucial to identify general patterns and underlying mechanisms.