Consequences of the genetic threshold model for observing partial migration under climate change scenarios

Migration is a widespread phenomenon across the animal kingdom as a response to seasonality in environmental conditions. Partially migratory populations are populations that consist of both migratory and residential individuals. Such populations are very common, yet their stability has long been debated. The inheritance of migratory activity is currently best described by the threshold model of quantitative genetics. The inclusion of such a genetic threshold model for migratory behavior leads to a stable zone in time and space of partially migratory populations under a wide range of demographic parameter values, when assuming stable environmental conditions and unlimited genetic diversity. Migratory species are expected to be particularly sensitive to global warming, as arrival at the breeding grounds might be increasingly mistimed as a result of the uncoupling of long‐used cues and actual environmental conditions, with decreasing reproduction as a consequence. Here, we investigate the consequences for migratory behavior and the stability of partially migratory populations under five climate change scenarios and the assumption of a genetic threshold value for migratory behavior in an individual‐based model. The results show a spatially and temporally stable zone of partially migratory populations after different lengths of time in all scenarios. In the scenarios in which the species expands its range from a particular set of starting populations, the genetic diversity and location at initialization determine the species’ colonization speed across the zone of partial migration and therefore across the entire landscape. Abruptly changing environmental conditions after model initialization never caused a qualitative change in phenotype distributions, or complete extinction. This suggests that climate change‐induced shifts in species’ ranges as well as changes in survival probabilities and reproductive success can be met with flexibility in migratory behavior at the species level, which will reduce the risk of extinction.     

Evolutionary genetics of partial migration – the threshold model of migration revis(it)ed

Partial migration is a common and widespread phenomenon in animal populations. Even though the ecological causes for the evolution and maintenance of partial migration have been widely discussed, the consequences of the genetics underlying differences in migration patterns have been little acknowledged. Here, I revise current ideas on the genetics of partial migration and identify open questions, focussing on migration in birds. The threshold model of migration describing the inheritance and phenotypic expression of migratory behaviour is strongly supported by experimental results. As a consequence of migration being a threshold trait, high levels of genetic variation can be preserved, even under strong directional selection. This is partly due to strong environmental canalization. This cryptic genetic variation may explain rapid de novo evolution of migratory behaviour in resident populations and the high prevalence of partial migration in animal populations. To date the threshold model of migration has been tested only under laboratory conditions. For obtaining a more realistic representation of migratory behaviour in the wild, the simple threshold model needs to be extended by considering that the threshold of migration or the liability may be modified by environmental effects. This environmental threshold model is valid for both facultative and obligate migration movements, and identifies genetic accommodation as an important process underlying evolutionary change in migration status. Future research should aim at identifying the major environmental variables modifying migration propensity and at determining reaction norms of the threshold and liability across variation in these variables.     

Predicting conditions for migration: effects of density dependence and habitat quality

Migration is widespread among animals, but the factors that influence the decision to migrate are poorly understood. Within a single species, populations may be completely migratory, completely sedentary or partially migratory. We use a population model to derive conditions for migration and demonstrate how migratory survival, habitat quality and density dependence on both the breeding and non-breeding grounds influence conditions for migration and the proportion of migrants within a population. Density dependence during the season in which migratory and sedentary individuals use separate sites is necessary for partial migration. High levels of density dependence at the non-shared sites widen the range of survival values within which we predict partial migration, whereas increasing the strength of density dependence at the shared sites narrows the range of survival values within which we predict partial migration. Our results have important implications for predicting how contemporary populations with variable migration strategies may respond to changes in the quality or quantity of habitat.     

What triggers facultative winter migration of Great Bustard (Otis tarda) in Central Europe?

The Great Bustard is on the brink of extinction in Central Europe. Its population is known to suffer high mortality during hard winters, particularly when severe weather conditions cause migration. Long-term winter food management in two populations in Germany did not prevent migration events. To identify migration-triggering factors we tested the potential influence of snow, temperature, phase of winter and development of a tradition of migration. Comparing migratory behaviour with long-term local weather records, we found that snow cover is a much stronger trigger for migration than frost and low temperatures. We conclude that snow heavily affects the Great Bustard’s energy balance mediated not only by limited food access but also by the particular properties of its plumage. This could explain migration events despite food availability and is consistent with our results concerning a tendency for females to undertake facultative winter migration more than males. Available data are currently insufficient to confirm or reject the idea that Great Bustard populations develop a tradition of migratory behaviour following a previous winter migration, and we found no evidence for a decrease in the disposition of the Great Bustard to migrate during the course of winter.     

Annual Pronghorn Survival of a Partially Migratory Population

The importance of conserving migratory populations is recognized across a variety of ungulate taxa, yet the demographic benefits of migration remain uncertain for ungulate populations that exhibit partial migration. We hypothesized that migratory pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) would experience greater survival compared to residents by moving longer distances to avoid severe winter weather and access higher quality forage. We used a Bayesian time-to-event approach to analyze the fates of 175 radio-collared adult female pronghorn monitored over 8 biological years (2004–2011) in the Northern Sagebrush Steppe ecosystem. Annual survivorship of migratory pronghorn was 7% higher on average compared to residents but not statistically different. Migratory pronghorn had higher survivorship in summer and winter compared to residents, and few mortalities were observed during the short autumn and spring migration periods. Mortality risk for both movement tactics intensified under more severe winter weather; winter weather severity alone best explained annual pronghorn mortality risk. The top model predicted survival rates to decline on average by 56% over the range of observed winter climatic conditions. To minimize human impacts to pronghorn during extreme climatic events, we recommend working with transportation departments and land managers to enhance pronghorn crossings of roads and railroads, and landholders to modify fences to wildlife-friendly standards. © 2020 The Authors. Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals, LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

Population and evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured seasonally varying environments

Increasingly imperative objectives in ecology are to understand and forecast population dynamic and evolutionary responses to seasonal environmental variation and change. Such population and evolutionary dynamics result from immediate and lagged responses of all key life‐history traits, and resulting demographic rates that affect population growth rate, to seasonal environmental conditions and population density. However, existing population dynamic and eco‐evolutionary theory and models have not yet fully encompassed within‐individual and among‐individual variation, covariation, structure and heterogeneity, and ongoing evolution, in a critical life‐history trait that allows individuals to respond to seasonal environmental conditions: seasonal migration. Meanwhile, empirical studies aided by new animal‐tracking technologies are increasingly demonstrating substantial within‐population variation in the occurrence and form of migration versus year‐round residence, generating diverse forms of ‘partial migration’ spanning diverse species, habitats and spatial scales. Such partially migratory systems form a continuum between the extreme scenarios of full migration and full year‐round residence, and are commonplace in nature. Here, we first review basic scenarios of partial migration and associated models designed to identify conditions that facilitate the maintenance of migratory polymorphism. We highlight that such models have been fundamental to the development of partial migration theory, but are spatially and demographically simplistic compared to the rich bodies of population dynamic theory and models that consider spatially structured populations with dispersal but no migration, or consider populations experiencing strong seasonality and full obligate migration. Second, to provide an overarching conceptual framework for spatio‐temporal population dynamics, we define a ‘partially migratory meta‐population’ system as a spatially structured set of locations that can be occupied by different sets of resident and migrant individuals in different seasons, and where locations that can support reproduction can also be linked by dispersal. We outline key forms of within‐individual and among‐individual variation and structure in migration that could arise within such systems and interact with variation in individual survival, reproduction and dispersal to create complex population dynamics and evolutionary responses across locations, seasons, years and generations. Third, we review approaches by which population dynamic and eco‐evolutionary models could be developed to test hypotheses regarding the dynamics and persistence of partially migratory meta‐populations given diverse forms of seasonal environmental variation and change, and to forecast system‐specific dynamics. To demonstrate one such approach, we use an evolutionary individual‐based model to illustrate that multiple forms of partial migration can readily co‐exist in a simple spatially structured landscape. Finally, we summarise recent empirical studies that demonstrate key components of demographic structure in partial migration, and demonstrate diverse associations with reproduction and survival. We thereby identify key theoretical and empirical knowledge gaps that remain, and consider multiple complementary approaches by which these gaps can be filled in order to elucidate population dynamic and eco‐evolutionary responses to spatio‐temporal seasonal environmental variation and change.     

The effect of climate change on partial migration – the blue tit paradox

Climate change has proven to affect various aspects of the migration of birds. In response to milder winters making the habitat more profitable and increasing the survival of residents, the migratory fraction of partially migratory populations has been predicted to decline. We studied the blue tit Parus caeruleus , a common partial migrant in southern Sweden. The numbers migrating at Falsterbo, a migratory passage site in SW Sweden, has increased during the last decades, in parallel with increasing winter and annual temperatures. Migration data from Falsterbo were compared with yearly indices of the size of the breeding population as estimated by the Swedish National Bird Monitoring Programme. Over the study period 1975–2004, also the breeding population has increased in size. The proportion of blue tits migrating each year did not change over the study period, or possibly even increased slightly, which is in contrast to how climate change has been predicted to influence populations containing both migratory and resident individuals. The most important factors determining the intensity of blue tit migration in a given year was the size of an important winter food source, the beech mast crop (more migrants at lower crops) and the size of the breeding population (more migrants at higher densities).     

The evolution of avian migration

The study of avian migration has reached sophisticated levels in many areas, including ecology, behaviour, and physiology. Traditional discussions of the evolution of migration, however, have been compromised for several reasons. Previous ideas concerning the ancestral home of migrant species, southern or northern, and whether a partially migratory stage always precedes a fully migratory stage, were not expressed as testable hypotheses. Plotting migratory behaviour on phylogenetic trees has become commonplace and allows tests of traditional hypotheses. Some of these studies are reviewed, lending some support for almost all of the previous ideas. Although phylogenetic mapping helps to frame questions about the evolution of migration in a testable framework, there are two serious issues. First, experimental and observational studies reveal that the expression of migratory behaviour can change rapidly within a lineage, which can violate assumptions of character mapping. In addition, a species distribution model is used to show that current conditions for obligate migratory populations of the chipping sparrow were much restricted at the Last Glacial Maximum, and that the species might have been considered a partial migrant at that time. The expression of migratory behaviour in an extant species might be an artefact of the current inter‐glacial period. Only if the rate of gains and losses of migratory behaviour can be incorporated into a phylogenetic mapping exercise will the actual evolutionary pattern of migration be revealed. For example, reconstruction of the ancestral area and the evolutionary history of migratory categories in a clade of New World warblers depended on the assumptions of character state transitions. A second concern is that the trait ‘migratory’ is too broad for evolutionary analysis and that, if possible, the expression of hyperphagia, Zugunruhe, and navigation could be mapped individually. Loss or suppression of any of these components can lead to sedentary populations, revealing how migratory behaviour can appear and disappear rapidly. A report of low levels of Zugunruhe in a sedentary bird, Saxicola torquata, is reconstructed as derived in a clade of otherwise migratory populations, suggesting that the loss of migration was a result of suppression (but not elimination) of Zugunruhe. When researchers mention the independent origin of migration in a clade, they are most likely referring to the gain or loss of the expression of the ancestral migratory programme, not the de novo evolution of migration per se. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 104 , 237–250.     

鸟类迁徙:在全球变暖趋势下的演化、调控与发展(英文)

最近几十年的研究证实 ,鸟类迁徙在很大程度上受到遗传因素的直接控制。有证据表明 ,存在某种先天的迁徙动因并涉及以下几方面的遗传调控 :(1)迁徙过程的起始、持续以及结束 ;(2 )迁徙活动量 ,即决定鸟类飞行距离的遗传参数 ;(3)迁徙方向 ;(4)生理参数 ,特别是迁徙期间的脂肪贮存 ,以及对于那些部分个体迁徙的鸟种而言 ,决定个体迁徙与否的生理参数。双因素选择实验表明 ,部分迁徙群经由几个世代的选择即可转变成完全的迁徙群或非迁徙群。新迁徙方向以及由此导致的新越冬区的改变 ,也能在野生鸟类中迅速实现。至少在以往研究得最为透彻的鸟种 (黑顶林莺Sylviaatricapilla)中 ,“迁徙”或“非迁徙”是先天性的 ,与特异性迁徙活动量相关 (尤如一时间程序 ) ,前者 (迁徙的 )已证实是由一种阈机制所控制的。一项新的鸟类迁徙理论假设 ,即使好些完全迁徙的类群 ,较低水平的迁徙活动量选择也会导致阈的异位 ,低于这一阈值就会出现非迁徙个体。因此 ,通过选择作用 ,一个迁徙型种群可以通过部分迁徙型转变为非迁徙型。这种中间阶段在现存鸟类中十分普遍。它始见于生物演化早期 ,就鸟类而言 ,可能在原始鸟类就已具备。模型运算表明 ,在施以强定向选择情况下 ,迁徙鸟类经过约 4 0年可转变为留鸟 ,反之亦然。这就解     

The genetics of bird migration: stimulus, timing, and direction

The extent to which genetic factors are directly involved in the control of bird migration and the mode of inheritance involved has been studied systematically over the past 15 years in the Blackcap Sylvia atricapilla by cross-breeding and selective breeding. Results have also been obtained from a few experimental and field studies on Robins Eritfiacus rubecula, Blackbirds Turdus merula and Song Sparrows Melospiza melodia. Cross-breeding of migrants with nonmigrants has resulted in the partial transmission of migratory activity into the F, generation indicating that the urge to migrate is inherited and is based on a multilocus system with a threshold for expression. Migratoriness and sedentariness in obligate partial migrants is probably inherited in a similar way, suggesting that the decision to migrate also has a strong genetic basis. Both traits can be selected to phenotypic uniformity within 3–6 generations indicating an extremely high evolutionary potential. Orientation behaviour can also be transmitted to the offspring of a nonmigratory population by cross-breeding. Cross-breeding individuals with different migratory directions produced offspring with phenotypically intermediate directional preferences, suggesting that the migratory direction is also a predominantly heritable character. In the current development of novel migratory habits in those Central European Blackcaps that now winter in the British Isles, the inheritance of the novel migratory direction may be crucial. Genetic variation in migratory events seems to be sufficient to allow for many microevolutionary processes.     

Adoption of alternative migratory tactics: a view from the ultimate mechanism and threshold trait changes in a salmonid fish

Partial migration, in which a portion of the population migrates while the rest of the population remains as residents, is a common form of migration. Alternative migratory tactics (AMTs) of partial migration are often determined by polygenic threshold traits. However, the ultimate mechanisms that drive inter‐population variations in threshold traits are not well understood. We present a simple schematic model to explain how the threshold trait changes with fitness consequences under opposing natural and artificial selection forces. We conducted a field test to evaluate the effects of migration difficulty (as a natural selective force) and selective captive breeding (as an artificial selective force) on threshold traits of a partially migratory fish. Male masu salmon Oncorhynchus masou in the Shari River system have AMTs divided into three population categories of hatchery, wild/above the waterfall, and wild/below the waterfall (control). The wild/above the waterfall salmon live in a high‐migration‐cost situation, and the threshold trait changed in a direction that promoted residency. In hatchery salmon, which are produced by migrant‐selective captive breeding, the threshold trait changed in a direction that promoted migration. In contrast, Dolly Varden charr Salvelinus malma displayed only resident tactics, and the threshold trait did not differ between the populations above and below the waterfall, indicating that environment did not explain the variation in the threshold trait. Our results support the model and suggest that opposing natural and artificial selection forces drive variations in the threshold traits and migratory patterns in the studied species. Our conceptual framework for the ultimate mechanism may help to better understand adoption of AMTs and production of diverse intraspecific traits in migratory animals.     

Variation in migratory behavior influences regional genetic diversity and structure among American Kestrel populations (Falco sparverius) in North America

Birds employ numerous strategies to cope with seasonal fluctuations in high-quality habitat availability. Long distance migration is a common tactic; however, partial migration is especially common among broadly distributed species. Under partial migration systems, a portion of a species migrates, whereas the remainder inhabits breeding grounds year round. In this study, we identified effects of migratory behavior variation on genetic structure and diversity of American Kestrels (Falco sparverius), a widespread partial migrant in North America. American Kestrels generally migrate; however, a resident group inhabits the southeastern United States year round. The southeastern group is designated as a separate subspecies (F. s. paulus) from the migratory group (F. s. sparverius). Using mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites from 183 and 211 individuals, respectively, we illustrate that genetic structure is stronger among nonmigratory populations, with differentiation measures ranging from 0.060 to 0.189 depending on genetic marker and analysis approach. In contrast, measures from western North American populations ranged from 0 to 0.032. These findings suggest that seasonal migratory behavior is also associated with natal and breeding dispersal tendencies. We likewise detected significantly lower genetic diversity within nonmigratory populations, reflecting the greater influence of genetic drift in small populations. We identified the signal of population expansion among nonmigratory populations, consistent with the recent establishment of higher latitude breeding locations following Pleistocene glacial retreat. Differentiation of F. s. paulus and F. s. sparverius reflected subtle differences in allele frequencies. Because migratory behavior can evolve quickly, our analyses suggest recent origins of migratory American Kestrel populations in North America.     

The ecology and evolution of partial migration

Partial migration, where populations of animals are composed of a mixture of resident and migratory individuals, is a widespread phenomenon in nature. It has been reported to occur in all major vertebrate groups, and can have significant ecological consequences. Here we give an overview of the ecology and evolution of partial migration in animals. We firstly review the different types of partial migration, and assess the ecological drivers responsible for driving individual differences in migratory tendency within populations. A variety of factors can be important in promoting the evolution of partial migration, including competition for resources or breeding opportunities, predation risk and intraspecific niche diversity. Often various factors act synergistically to create complex patterns of movement polymorphism within populations. The question of how partial migration is maintained over evolutionary timescales is also addressed. Whilst many theoretical considerations of partial migration utilise an evolutionary stable state (ESS) paradigm, empirical evidence for this is lacking. Rather the evidence suggests that partial migration is mostly condition dependent, and the optimum outcome for an individual is dependent upon its phenotype. What determines whether an individual follows a migratory or resident strategy is discussed in light of new theory and empirical data which supports the idea that environmentally responsive genetic thresholds are important across a range of species, from birds to fish, in proximately shaping migratory tendency. Finally we espouse our vision of how partial migration research will develop in the future, and suggest a number of exciting directions that studies into migratory dimorphism may take in the coming years.     

Leadership, social learning, and the maintenance (or collapse) of migratory populations

Long-distance animal migrations are complex, population-level phenomena that emerge in seasonal landscapes as a result of the interplay between environmental influences (e.g., resources, predators) and social interactions among conspecifics. When landscapes change with respect to phenology or connectivity, the dynamics of migratory species can abruptly shift, in many cases leading to a cessation of migration and dramatic decreases in population size. We develop a difference equation modeling framework to explore how the social transfer of knowledge from informed “leader” individuals enhances the performance of seasonally migratory versus resident populations. The model permits a wide range of population-level behaviors including alternative stable states, partial migration equilibria, and complex dynamics, but we focus our efforts on investigations of migration collapse mediated by a lack of informed leaders that can arise from changes in landscape structure, survivorship, reproduction, and/or social learning. Migration collapse is a hysteretic phenomenon in this model and results either in extinction of the population or purely resident behavior. The hysteretic nature of migration failure, which hinges on cultural transmission of knowledge, highlights a potentially critical role for behavior and social learning in aspects of spatial ecology and conservation biology.     

Diffuse, short and slow migration among Blue Tits

The knowledge of migration systems in long-distance regular migrants is in many cases extensive. Our understanding of the migratory characteristics of partial migrants, on the other hand, is far more rudimentary. We investigated migratory characteristics of partially migratory Blue Tits Cyanistes caeruleus using ringing recoveries of Swedish birds, to answer questions about geographic migration patterns, age-specific migrations, migration speeds and synchrony of movements. Median migration distance of Swedish Blue Tits was 82 km, with a main autumn direction in the sector between S and W (large directional scatter). Northerly and southerly populations did not differ in migration directions or distances, suggesting chain migration to be the general pattern. A larger proportion of adult Blue Tits remained near the breeding grounds during winter than was the case for juveniles. Some of the migrating birds (17%) seemed not to return in spring but stayed to breed closer to the winter area. Swedish Blue Tits show an exceptionally slow migration speed (median 13 km/day), among the slowest speeds recorded for any migrant bird. The Blue Tit represents an extreme case of diffuse, short and slow bird migration.     

Loss of migration and urbanization in birds: a case study of the blackbird (Turdus merula)

Many organisms have invaded urban habitats, although the underlying factors initially promoting urbanization remain poorly understood. Partial migration may facilitate urbanization because such populations benefit from surplus food in urban environments during winter, and hence enjoy reduced fitness costs of migratory deaths. We tested this hypothesis in the European blackbird Turdus merula, which has been urbanized since the 19th century, by compiling information on timing of urbanization, migratory status, and population density for 99 cities across the continent. Timing of urbanization was spatially auto-correlated at scales up to 600 km. Analyses of timing of urbanization revealed that urbanization occurred earlier in partially migratory and resident populations than in migratory populations of blackbirds. Independently, this effect was most pronounced in the range of the distribution that currently has the highest population density, suggesting that urbanization facilitated population growth. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that timing of urbanization is facilitated by partial migration, resulting in subsequent residency and population growth.     

Genetic control of migratory behaviour in birds

Although it has long been suspected that biannual migration in birds has a direct genetic basis, only in the last decade have details of the inheritance of behavioural traits such as migratory activity and directional preferences been demonstrated. A model has now been developed to estimate how inexperienced first-time migrants manage to reach their unknown winter quarters on the basis of inherited spatio-temporal programs. Furthermore, in obligate partial migrants the decision to migrate or not has been shown to have a strong genetic base. Migratoriness and sedentariness in partial migrants have been shown to have a high potential for rapid evolution. A recent set of results has suggested that novel migratory habits can evolve in less than 25 years. A possible consequence is that environmental changes, including 'greenhouse' effects, might considerably alter avian migration systems by acting on genetic variation for migratory tendencies.     

Seasonal migration promoting assortative mating in Littorina brevicula on a boulder shore in Japan

Littorina brevicula Philippi is one of the most common snails found in the upper intertidal zone of Japan. In Amakusa, some of the population of L. brevicula migrate to the lower zone in the winter, while the rest stay in the upper zone. Thus, during the winter, which is its reproductive season, the population of L. brevicula divides into two sub-populations. This leads to a hypothesis that the migration pattern in winter is genetically controlled and this behavioural dimorphism is maintained by reproductive isolation between the two sub-populations. In order to test this hypothesis, the following three points were investigated: (1) whether the same snails migrate in a similar way every winter, (2) whether there is a significant tidal level preference in snails, and (3) whether reproductive isolation occurs between the two sub-populations. The results showed (1) the migration behaviour of each snail was consistent over two successive winters, i.e. the same group of snails migrated downward every winter and the same group of snails stayed in the upper zone every winter, (2) transplanted snails moved toward the original zones where they were caught, suggesting that the snails actively selected their tidal zone in winter, and (3) most of the snails copulated within each sub-population. Therefore, reproductive isolation between the two sub-populations was considered to be established to some extent by the dimorphic migration behaviour. In conclusion, the migratory behaviour of L. brevicula is determined separately for each individual and might be genetically controlled, and the behavioural dimorphism may be maintained by partial reproductive isolation between the two sub-populations.     

Hybrid songbirds employ intermediate routes in a migratory divide

Migratory divides are contact zones between populations that use different routes to navigate around unsuitable areas on seasonal migration. Hybrids in divides have been predicted to employ intermediate and potentially inferior routes. We provide the first direct test of this hypothesis, using light‐level geolocators to track birds breeding in a hybrid zone between Swainson's thrushes in western Canada. Compared to parental forms, hybrids exhibited increased variability in their migratory routes, with some using intermediate routes that crossed arid and mountainous regions, and some using the same routes as one parental group on fall migration and the other on spring migration. Hybrids also tended to use geographically intermediate wintering sites. Analysis of genetic variation across the hybrid zone suggests moderately strong selection against hybrids. These results indicate that seasonal migratory behaviour might be a source of selection against hybrids, supporting a possible role for migration in speciation.     

Migratory connectivity in a declining bird species: using feather isotopes to inform demographic modelling

Aim Conservation programmes for endangered migratory species or populations require locating and evaluating breeding, stopover and wintering areas. We used multiple stable isotopes in two endangered European populations of wrynecks, Jynx torquilla L., to locate wintering regions and assess the degree of migratory connectivity between breeding and wintering populations. Location Switzerland and Germany. Methods We analysed stable nitrogen (δ¹⁵N), carbon (δ¹³C) and hydrogen (δD) isotopes from wing feathers from two populations of wrynecks to infer their wintering origins and to assess the strength of migratory connectivity. We tested whether variation in feather isotopic values within the Swiss population was affected by bird age and collection year and then considered differences in isotopic values between the two breeding populations. We used isotopic values of summer‐ and winter‐grown feathers to estimate seasonal distributions. Finally, we calculated a species‐specific δD discrimination factor between feathers and mean annual δD values to assign winter‐grown feathers to origin. Results Bird age and collection year caused substantial isotopic variation in winter‐grown feathers, which may be because of annually variable weather conditions, movements of birds among wintering sites and/or reflect asynchronous moulting or selection pressure. The large isotopic variance in winter‐grown feathers nevertheless suggested low migratory connectivity for each breeding population, with partially overlapping wintering regions for the two populations. Main conclusions Isotopic variance in winter‐grown feathers of two breeding populations of wrynecks and their geographical assignment point to defined, albeit overlapping, wintering areas, suggesting both leapfrog migration and low migratory connectivity. On this basis, integrative demographic models can be built looking at seasonal survival patterns with links to local environmental conditions on both breeding and wintering grounds, which may elucidate causes of declines in migratory bird species.