Western Amazonia as a Hotspot of Mammalian Biodiversity Throughout the Cenozoic

A state-of-the-art review of the Cenozoic fossil record from Western Amazonia is provided, based on literature and new data (regarding Paleogene native ungulates). It allows summarizing the evolution and dynamics of middle Eocene–Holocene mammalian guilds, at the level of species, families, and orders. Major gaps in the Western Amazonian mammal record occur in the pre-Lutetian and early Miocene intervals, and in the Pliocene epoch. Twenty-three orders, 89 families, and 320 species are recognized in the fossil record, widely dominated by eutherians from the middle Eocene onward. Probable Allotheria (Gondwanatheria) occur only in the earliest interval, whereas Metatheria and Eutheria are conspicuous components of any assemblage. Taxonomic diversity was probably fairly constant at the ordinal level (~12–14 orders in each time slice considered) and much more variable in terms of family and species richness: if most intervals are characterized by 40–50 co-occurring species and 19–31 co-occurring families, the early Miocene period illustrates a depauperate fauna (21 species, 17 families), strongly contrasting with the late Miocene climactic guild (82 species, 38 families). Recent mammalian taxonomic diversity from Western Amazonia (12 orders, 37 families, and 286 species) is at odds with all past intervals, as it encompasses only three orders of South American origin (Didelphimorphia, Cingulata, and Pilosa) but four North American immigrant orders (Artiodactyla, Perissodactyla, Carnivora, and Lagomorpha). In terms of taxonomic diversity, recent mammalian guilds are fully dominated by small-sized taxa (Chiroptera, Rodentia, and Primates). This overview also confirms the scarcity of large mammalian flesh-eaters in ancient Neotropical mammalian assemblages. The pattern and the timing of mammalian dispersals from northern landmasses into Western Amazonia are not elucidated yet.     

Cenozoic record of elongate,cylindrical, deep-sea benthic foraminifera in the North Atlantic and equatorial Pacific Oceans

In the late Pliocene–middle Pleistocene a group of 95 species of elongate, cylindrical, deep-sea (lower bathyal–abyssal) benthic foraminifera became extinct. This Extinction Group (Ext. Gp), belonging to three families (all the Stilostomellidae and Pleurostomellidae, some of the Nodosariidae), was a major component (20–70%) of deep-sea foraminiferal assemblages in the middle Cenozoic and subsequently declined in abundance and species richness before finally disappearing almost completely during the mid-Pleistocene Climatic Transition (MPT). So what caused these declines and extinction?In this study 127 Ext. Gp species are identified from eight Cenozoic bathyal and abyssal sequences in the North Atlantic and equatorial Pacific Oceans. Most species are long-ranging with 80% originating in the Eocene or earlier. The greatest abundance and diversity of the Ext. Gp was in the warm oceanic conditions of the middle Eocene–early Oligocene. The group was subjected to significant changes in the composition of the faunal dominants and slightly enhanced species turnover during and soon after the rapid Eocene–Oligocene cooling event. Declines in the relative abundance and flux of the Ext. Gp, together with enhanced species loss, occurred during middle–late Miocene cooling, particularly at abyssal sites. The overall number of Ext. Gp species present began declining earlier at mid abyssal depths (in middle Miocene) than at upper abyssal (in late Pliocene–early Pleistocene) and then lower bathyal depths (in MPT). By far the most significant Ext. Gp declines in abundance and species loss occurred during the more severe glacial stages of the late Pliocene–middle Pleistocene.Clearly, the decline and extinction of this group of deep-sea foraminifera was related to the function of their specialized apertures and the stepwise cooling of global climate and deep water. We infer that the apertural modifications may be related to the method of food collection or processing, and that the extinctions may have resulted from the decline or loss of their specific phytoplankton or prokaryote food source, that was more directly impacted than the foraminifera by the cooling temperatures.     

Genetic structure and ecological niche segregation of Indian gray mongoose (Urva edwardsii) in Iran

Combining genetic data with ecological niche models is an effective approach for exploring climatic and nonclimatic environmental variables affecting spatial patterns of intraspecific genetic variation. Here, we adopted this combined approach to evaluate genetic structure and ecological niche of the Indian gray mongoose (Urva edwardsii) in Iran, as the most western part of the species range. Using mtDNA, we confirmed the presence of two highly differentiated clades. Then, we incorporated ensemble of small models (ESMs) using climatic and nonclimatic variables with genetic data to assess whether genetic differentiation among clades was coupled with their ecological niche. Climate niche divergence was also examined based on a principal component analysis on climatic factors only. The relative habitat suitability values predicted by the ESMs for both clades revealed their niche separation. Between‐clade climate only niche comparison revealed that climate space occupied by clades is similar to some extent, but the niches that they utilize differ between the distribution ranges of clades. We found that in the absence of evidence for recent genetic exchanges, distribution models suggest the species occurs in different niches and that there are apparent areas of disconnection across the species range. The estimated divergence time between the two Iranian clades (4.9 Mya) coincides with the uplifting of the Zagros Mountains during the Early Pliocene. The Zagros mountain‐building event seems to have prevented the distribution of U. edwardsii populations between the western and eastern parts of the mountains as a result of vicariance events. Our findings indicated that the two U. edwardsii genetic clades in Iran can be considered as two conservation units and can be utilized to develop habitat‐specific and climate change‐integrated management strategies.     

Pliocene–Pleistocene ecological niche evolution shapes the phylogeography of a Mediterranean plant group

Estimating species ability to adapt to environmental changes is crucial to understand their past and future response to climate change. The Mediterranean Basin has experienced remarkable climatic changes since the Miocene, which have greatly influenced the evolution of the Mediterranean flora. Here, we examine the evolutionary history and biogeographic patterns of two sedge sister species (Carex, Cyperaceae) restricted to the western Mediterranean Basin, but with Pliocene fossil record in central Europe. In particular, we estimated the evolution of climatic niches through time and its influence in lineage differentiation. We carried out a dated phylogenetic–phylogeographic study based on seven DNA regions (nDNA and ptDNA) and fingerprinting data (AFLPs), and modelled ecological niches and species distributions for the Pliocene, Pleistocene and present. Phylogenetic and divergence time analyses revealed that both species form a monophyletic lineage originated in the late Pliocene–early Pleistocene. We detected clear genetic differentiation between both species with distinct genetic clusters in disjunct areas, indicating the predominant role of geographic barriers limiting gene flow. We found a remarkable shift in the climatic requirements between Pliocene and extant populations, although the niche seems to have been relatively conserved since the Pleistocene split of both species. This study highlights how an integrative approach combining different data sources and analyses, including fossils, allows solid and robust inferences about the evolutionary history of a plant group since the Pliocene.     

Population trends influence species ability to track climate change

Shifts of distributions have been attributed to species tracking their fundamental climate niches through space. However, several studies have now demonstrated that niche tracking is imperfect, that species’ climate niches may vary with population trends, and that geographic distributions may lag behind rapid climate change. These reports of imperfect niche tracking imply shifts in species’ realized climate niches. We argue that quantifying climate niche shifts and analyzing them for a suite of species reveal general patterns of niche shifts and the factors affecting species’ ability to track climate change. We analyzed changes in realized climate niche between 1984 and 2012 for 46 species of North American birds in relation to population trends in an effort to determine whether species differ in the ability to track climate change and whether differences in niche tracking are related to population trends. We found that increasingly abundant species tended to show greater levels of niche expansion (climate space occupied in 2012 but not in 1980) compared to declining species. Declining species had significantly greater niche unfilling (climate space occupied in 1980 but not in 2012) compared to increasing species due to an inability to colonize new sites beyond their range peripheries after climate had changed at sites of occurrence. Increasing species, conversely, were better able to colonize new sites and therefore showed very little niche unfilling. Our results indicate that species with increasing trends are better able to geographically track climate change compared to declining species, which exhibited lags relative to changes in climate. These findings have important implications for understanding past changes in distribution, as well as modeling dynamic species distributions in the face of climate change.     

Phylogenetic patterns in zopherine beetles are related to ecological niche width and dispersal limitation

Niche conservatism has been proposed as the mechanism driving speciation in temperate montane clades through range fragmentation during climatic oscillations. Thus, a negative relationship between speciation rates and niche width is expected. Here, we test this prediction using American zopherine beetles. Our phylogenetic analyses recovered two clades in addition to that of the genus Zopherus: the genera Verodes and Phloeodes, which originated most likely in the Eocene, and diversified during the Miocene and the Pliocene. The assessment of clade niche width in relation to clade diversity supported the proposition of narrow niches leading to a higher probability of range fragmentation during climatic oscillations, thus increasing speciation. Additionally, almost all current populations of Phloeodes and Verodes are located within regions that retained favourable climatic conditions across warm and cold Pleistocene periods, suggesting that dispersal limitation is a strong factor controlling clade distribution. In sum, our results suggest that (i) niche width is a major determinant of the probability of speciation in temperate montane clades, by controlling the probability of potential range fragmentation and (ii) dispersal limitation is also a major determinant of the speciation process, by increasing the fragmentation of realized ranges even when potential distributions are cyclically fused during climatic oscillations. When dispersal limitation is extreme, as in zopherine beetles, populations persist just in those areas that have retained suitable conditions during extremes of past climatic oscillations. Paradoxically, this relict condition confers zopherine beetles great resilience for facing future climate change.     

Phylogenetic signals in the climatic niches of the world's amphibians

The question of whether closely related species share similar ecological requirements has attracted increasing attention, because of its importance for understanding global diversity gradients and the impacts of climate change on species distributions. In fact, the assumption that related species are also ecologically similar has often been made, although the prevalence of such a phylogenetic signal in ecological niches remains heavily debated. Here, we provide a global analysis of phylogenetic niche relatedness for the world's amphibians. In particular, we assess which proportion of the variance in the realised climatic niches is explained on higher taxonomic levels, and whether the climatic niches of species within a given taxonomic group are more similar than between taxonomic groups. We found evidence for phylogenetic signals in realised climatic niches although the strength of the signal varied among amphibian orders and across biogeographical regions. To our knowledge, this is the first study providing a comprehensive analysis of the phylogenetic signal in species climatic niches for an entire clade across the world. Even though our results do not provide a strong test of the niche conservatism hypothesis, they question the alternative hypothesis that niches evolve independently of phylogenetic influences.     

Ecological niches as stable distributional constraints on mammal species, with implications for Pleistocene extinctions and climate change projections for biodiversity

Aim Theoretical work suggests that species’ ecological niches should remain relatively constant over long‐term ecological time periods, but empirical tests are few. We present longitudinal studies of 23 extant mammal species, modelling ecological niches and predicting geographical distributions reciprocally between the Last Glacial Maximum and present to test this evolutionary conservatism. Location This study covered distributional shifts in mammal species across the lower 48 states of the United States. Methods We used a machine‐learning tool for modelling species’ ecological niches, based on known occurrences and electronic maps summarizing ecological dimensions, to assess the ability of ecological niches as modelled in one time period to predict the geographical distribution of the species in another period, and vice versa. Results High intertemporal predictivity between niche models and species’ occurrences indicate that niche conservatism is widespread among the taxa studied, particularly when statistical power is considered as a reason for failure of reciprocal predictions. Niche projections to the present for 8 mammal taxa that became extinct at the end of the Pleistocene generally increased in area, and thus do not support the hypothesis of niche collapse as a major driving force in their extinction. Main conclusions Ecological niches represent long‐term stable constraints on the distributional potential of species; indeed, this study suggests that mammal species have tracked consistent climate profiles throughout the drastic climate change events that marked the end of the Pleistocene glaciations. Many current modelling efforts focusing on anticipating climate change effects on species’ potential geographical distributions will be bolstered by this result — in essence, the first longitudinal demonstration of niche conservatism.     

Conservation of phylogeographic lineages under climate change

Aim We address the unexplored question of whether the lack of information on intra‐specific diversity inherent in species‐level niche modelling might bias evaluation of the conservation requirements of species and phylogeographic lineages under changing climates. We test for directional biases that might arise due to these methodological differences in ways of assessing risks from climate change. Location The African continent. Methods We identified from peer‐reviewed studies that used both nuclear and plastid markers the distribution of deep phylogeographic divisions within nine species of African mammals and their phylogeographic lineages. We fitted ecological niche models to describe currently suitable, occupied climates and to project the shift of suitable climate to two future time slices. We applied gap analysis to reveal potential changes in the protection of phylogeographic diversity owing to climatic shifts. Results We found that, within species, most phylogeographic lineages differ in the climates they experience and have substantial geographic separation. Models that do not distinguish these subspecific units often fail to identify potential risks of climate change to lineages. Modelled potential effects of climate change on the geographic extent of suitable climate vary in both direction and magnitude. Predictions of the persistence of suitable climate in current protected areas for the resident lineages differ on average by factor of 2 between species and lineage models. Main conclusions Our study develops an original synthetic approach by combining niche modelling, projected climate change, phylogeographic information and gap analysis. We clearly identify the potential benefits of using the new approach to evaluate risks to the conservation of intra‐specific genetic diversity that are posed by climate change. Our results suggest that prudent conservation strategies need to incorporate potential differences in climate tolerance among lineages when planning conservation measures for species confronted with environmental change.     

Reconstructing the demise of Tethyan plants: climate‐driven range dynamics of Laurus since the Pliocene

Aim Climate changes are thought to be responsible for the retreat and eventual extinction of subtropical lauroid species that covered much of Europe and North Africa during the Palaeogene and early Neogene; little is known, however, of the spatial and temporal patterns of this demise. Herein we calibrate ecological niche models to assess the climatic requirements of Laurus L. (Lauraceae), an emblematic relic from the Tethyan subtropical flora, subsequently using these models to infer how the range dynamics of Laurus were affected by Plio‐Pleistocene climate changes. We also provide predictions of likely range changes resulting from future climatic scenarios. Location The Mediterranean Basin and Macaronesian islands (Canaries, Madeira, Azores). Methods We used a maximum‐entropy algorithm (Maxent) to model the relationship between climate and Laurus distribution over time. The models were fitted both to the present and to the middle Pliocene, based on fossil records. We employed climatic reconstructions for the mid‐Pliocene (3 Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) and a CO₂‐doubling future scenario to project putative species distribution in each period. We validated the model projections with Laurus fossil and present occurrences. Results Laurus preferentially occupied warm and moist areas with low seasonality, showing a marked stasis of its climatic niche. Models fitted to Pliocene conditions successfully predicted the current species distribution. Large suitable areas existed during the Pliocene, which were strongly reduced during the Pleistocene, but humid refugia within the Mediterranean Basin and Macaronesian islands enabled long‐term persistence. Future climate conditions are likely to re‐open areas suitable for colonization north of the current range. Main conclusions The climatic requirements of Laurus remained virtually unchanged over the last 3 Myr. This marked niche conservatism imposed largely deterministic range dynamics driven by climate conditions. This species's relatively high drought tolerance might account for the survival of Laurus in continental Europe throughout the Quaternary whilst other Lauraceae became extinct. Climatic scenarios for the end of this century would favour an expansion of the species's range towards northern latitudes, while severely limiting southern populations due to increased water stress.     

Shifts in Climate Foster Exceptional Opportunities for Species Radiation: The Case of South African Geraniums

Climate change is often assumed to be a major driver of biodiversity loss. However, it can also set the stage for novel diversification in lineages with the evolutionary ability to colonize new environments. Here we tested if the extraordinary evolutionary success of the genus Pelargonium was related to the ability of its species to capitalize on the climate niche variation produced by the historical changes in southern Africa. We evaluated the relationship between rates of climate niche evolution and diversification rates in the main Pelargonium lineages and disentangled the roles of deep and recent historical events in the modification of species niches. Pelargonium clades exhibiting higher ecological differentiation along summer precipitation (SPP) gradients also experienced higher diversification rates. Faster rates of niche differentiation in spatially structured variables, along with lower levels of niche overlap among closely related species, suggest recent modification in species niches (e.g. dispersal or range shift) and niche lability. We suggest that highly structured SPP gradients established during the aridification process within southern Africa, in concert with niche lability and low niche overlap, contributed to species divergence. These factors are likely to be responsible for the extensive diversification of other lineages in this diversity hot spot.     

Insect occurrence in agricultural land-uses depends on realized niche and geographic range properties

Geographic range size predicts species’ responses to land-use change and intensification, but the reason why is not well established because many correlates of larger geographic ranges, such as realized niche breadth, may mediate species’ responses to environmental change. Agricultural land uses (hereafter ‘agroecosystems’) have warm, dry and more variable microclimates than do cooler and wetter mature forests, so are predicted to filter for species that have warmer, drier and broader fundamental and realized niches. To test these predictions, we estimated species’ realized niches, for temperature and precipitation, and geographic range sizes of 764 insect species by matching GBIF occurrence records to global climate layers, and modelled how species presence/absence in mature forest and nearby agroecosystems depend on species’ realized niches or geographic ranges. The predicted species niche effects consistently matched the expected direction of microclimatic transition from mature forest to agroecosystems. We found a clear signal that species with preference for warmer and drier climates were more likely to be present in agroecosystems. In addition, the probability that species occurred in different land-use types was predicted better by species’ realized niche than their geographic range size. However, niche effects are often context-dependent and varied amongst studies, taxonomic groups and regions used in this analysis: predicting which particular aspects of species’ realized niche cause sensitivity to land-use change, and the underpinning mechanisms, remains a major challenge for future research and multiple components of species’ realized niches may be important to consider. Using realized niches derived from open-source occurrence records can be a simple and widely applicable tool to help identify when biodiversity responds to the microclimate component of land-use change.     

中国兽类名录(2021版)

中国是全球兽类物种多样性最高的国家之一,掌握我国兽类物种多样性和分类地位是兽类学研究的基础前提,也是科学保护野生种群的前提。为厘清中国兽类的物种数量及分类地位等关键分类学信息,中国动物学会兽类学分会组织国内长期致力于兽类各类群分类的科学研究人员,在总结前人研究的基础上,根据最新的形态学和分子遗传学证据,综合现代兽类分类学家意见,经编委会充分讨论,形成了最新的中国兽类名录,包括我国现阶段兽类12目59科254属686种。该中国兽类名录使用基于系统发生关系的分类系统,并对物种有效性进行了充分慎重的确认和讨论。     

Niche width impacts vertebrate diversification

Aim The size of the climatic niche of a species is a major factor determining its distribution and evolution. In particular, it has been proposed that niche width should be associated with the rate of species diversification. Here, we test whether species niche width affects the speciation and extinction rates of three main clades of vertebrates: amphibians, mammals and birds. Location Global. Methods We obtained the time‐calibrated phylogenies, IUCN conservation status, species distribution maps and climatic data for 2340 species of amphibians, 4563 species of mammals and 9823 species of birds. We computed the niche width for each species as the mean annual temperature across the species range. We estimated speciation, extinction and transition rates associated with lineages with either narrow (specialist) or wide (generalist) niches using phylogeny‐based birth–death models. We also tested if current conservation status was correlated with the niche width of species. Results We found higher net diversification rates in specialist species than in generalist species. This result was explained by both higher speciation rates (for the three taxonomic groups) and lower extinction rates (for mammals and birds only) in specialist than in generalist species. In contrast, current specialist species tended to be more threatened than generalist species. Main conclusions Our diversification analysis shows that the width of the climatic niche is strongly associated with diversification rates and may thus be a crucial factor for understanding the emergence of diversity patterns in vertebrates. The striking difference between our diversification results and current conservation status suggests that the current extinction process may be different from extinction rates estimated from the whole history of the group.     

Range and niche shifts in response to past climate change in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos

During climate change, species are often assumed to shift their geographic distributions (geographic ranges) in order to track environmental conditions – niches – to which they are adapted. Recent work, however, suggests that the niches do not always remain conserved during climate change but shift instead, allowing populations to persist in place or expand into new areas. We assessed the extent of range and niche shifts in response to the warming climate after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos, a species occupying the western deserts of North America. We used a phylogeographic approach with mitochondrial DNA sequences to approximate the species range during the LGM by identifying populations that exhibit a genetic signal of population stability versus those that exhibit a signal of a recent (likely post‐LGM) geographic expansion. We then compared the climatic niche that the species occupies today with the niche it occupied during the LGM using two models of simulated LGM climate. The genetic analyses indicated that P. platyrhinos persisted within the southern Mojave and Sonoran deserts throughout the latest glacial period and expanded from these deserts northwards, into the western and eastern Great Basin, after the LGM. The climatic niche comparisons revealed that P. platyrhinos expanded its climatic niche after the LGM towards novel, warmer and drier climates that allowed it to persist within the southern deserts. Simultaneously, the species shifted its climatic niche towards greater temperature and precipitation fluctuations after the LGM. We concluded that climatic changes at the end of the LGM promoted both range and niche shifts in this lizard. The mechanism that allowed the species to shift its niche remains unknown, but phenotypic plasticity likely contributes to the species ability to adjust to climate change.     

Contrasting Effects of Intraspecific Trait Variation on Trait-Based Niches and Performance of Legumes in Plant Mixtures

Niche differentiation, assumed to be a key mechanism of species coexistence, requires that species differ in their functional traits. So far it remains unclear to which extent trait plasticity leads to niche shifts of species at higher plant diversity, thereby increasing or decreasing niche overlap between species. To analyse this question it is convenient to measure niches indirectly via the variation in resource-uptake traits rather than directly via the resources used. We provisionally call these indirectly measured niches trait-based niches. We studied shoot- and leaf-morphological characteristics in seven legume species in monoculture and multi-species mixture in experimental grassland. Legume species varied in the extent of trait variation in response to plant diversity. Trait plasticity led to significant shifts in species niches in multiple dimensions. Single-species niches in several traits associated with height growth and filling of canopy space were expanded, while other niche dimensions were compressed or did not change with plant diversity. Niche separation among legumes decreased in dimensions related to height growth and space filling, but increased in dimensions related to leaf size and morphology. The total extent of occupied niche space was larger in mixture than in the combined monocultures for dimensions related to leaf morphology and smaller for dimensions related to whole-plant architecture. Taller growth, greater space filling and greater plasticity in shoot height were positively, while larger values and greater plasticity in specific leaf area were negatively related with increased performance of species in mixture. Our study shows that trait variation in response to plant diversity shifts species niches along trait axes. Plastically increased niche differentiation is restricted to niche dimensions that are apparently not related to size-dependent differences between species, but functional equivalence (convergence in height growth) rather than complementarity (divergence in traits associated with light acquisition) explains increased performance of legumes in mixture.     

Southward Pleistocene migration of Douglas-fir into Mexico: phylogeography, ecological niche modeling, and conservation of 'rear edge' populations

? Poleward Pleistocene plant migration has been an important process structuring modern temperate and boreal plant communities, but the contribution of equatorward migration remains poorly understood. Paleobotanical evidence suggests Miocene or Pleistocene origin for temperate 'sky island' plant taxa in Mexico. These 'rear edge' populations situated in a biodiversity hotspot may be an important reserve of genetic diversity in changing climates. ? We used mtDNA sequences, cpDNA sequences and chloroplast microsatellites to test hypotheses of Miocene vs Pleistocene colonization of temperate Douglas-fir in Mexico, explore geographic patterns of molecular variation in relation to Pleistocene climate history using ecological niche models, and assess the taxonomic and conservation implications. ? We found strong evidence for Pleistocene divergence of Douglas-fir in Mexico (958 thousand yr before present (ka) with the 90% highest posterior density interval ranging from 1.6 million yr before present (Ma) to 491 ka), consistent with the southward Pleistocene migration hypothesis. Genetic diversity was high and strongly partitioned among populations. Spatial patterns of molecular variation and ecological niche models suggest a complex late Pleistocene history involving periods of isolation and expansion along mountain corridors. ? These results highlight the importance of southward Pleistocene migration in establishing modern high-diversity plant communities and provide critical insights into proposals to conserve the unique biodiversity of Mexican Douglas-fir and associated taxa.     

British mammals in the Tertiary period

British Tertiary mammals are best represented in the Eocene and earliest Oligocene epochs. Additional occurrences are from the Miocene and Late Pliocene. The Eocene is marked by the occurrence of various extinct orders as well as the appearances of some of the earliest and must primitive artiodactyls and perissodactyls. The appearances in the Early Eocene and Early Oligocene represent major dispersal events, reflecting penecontemporaneous palaeogeographic changes. In the intervening timespan Britain was part of an European island, sharing its endemic terrestrial fauna. From the late Middle Eocene to earliest Oligocene, the British record is detailed enough to trace successive changes in the patterns of diversity and faunal turnover, which may relate to changing climate as well as to the dispersal events. It has been shown that changes in patterns of ecological diversity through the Eocene and earliest Oligocene match vegetational changes judged from plant fossils. They suggest a gradual transition from closed forest in the Early Eocene to a more open environment with reedmarsh and wooded patches by the end of the epoch.     

Translating niche features: Modelling differential exposure of Argentine reptiles to global climate change

Global climate change affects the distributions of ectotherms and may be the cause of several conservation problems, such as great displacement of climatic suitable spaces for species and, consequently, important reductions of the extent of liveable places, threatening the existence of many of them. Species exposure (and hence vulnerability) to global climate change is linked to features of their climatic niches (such as the relative position of the inhabited localities of each species in the climatic space), and therefore to characteristics of their geographic ranges (such as the extent of the distributions or altitudinal range inhabited by the species). In order to analyze the pattern of response of Argentine reptiles to global climate change, we ran phylogenetic generalized least squares models using species exposure to global climate change as a response variable, and (i) niche properties (breadth and position of the species in the climate space) and (ii) general features of the distribution of species (maximum latitude, altitudinal range, maximum elevation, distributional range and proximity to the most important dispersal barrier) as predictors. Our results suggest that the best way to explain climate change exposure is by combining breadth and position of climatic niche of the species or combining geographic features that are indicators of both niche characteristics. Our best model shows that in our study area, species with the narrowest distributional ranges that also inhabit the highest elevations are the most exposed to the effects of global climate change. In this sense, reptile species from Yungas, Puna and Andes ecoregions could be especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. We believe that these types of models may represent an interesting tool for determining species and places particularly threatened by the effects of global climate change, which should be strongly considered in conservation planning.     

Influence of late Quaternary climate change on present patterns of genetic variation in valley oak,Quercus lobata Née

Phylogeography and ecological niche models (ENMs) suggest that late Quaternary glacial cycles have played a prominent role in shaping present population genetic structure and diversity, but have not applied quantitative methods to dissect the relative contribution of past and present climate vs. other forces. We integrate multilocus phylogeography, climate‐based ENMs and multivariate statistical approaches to infer the effects of late Quaternary climate change on contemporary genetic variation of valley oak (Quercus lobata Née). ENMs indicated that valley oak maintained a stable distribution with local migration from the last interglacial period (~120 ka) to the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka, LGM) to the present compared with large‐scale range shifts for an eastern North American white oak (Quercus alba L.). Coast Range and Sierra Nevada foothill populations diverged in the late Pleistocene before the LGM [104 ka (28–1622)] and have occupied somewhat distinct climate niches, according to ENMs and coalescent analyses of divergence time. In accordance with neutral expectations for stable populations, nuclear microsatellite diversity positively correlated with niche stability from the LGM to present. Most strikingly, nuclear and chloroplast microsatellite variation significantly correlated with LGM climate, even after controlling for associations with geographic location and present climate using partial redundancy analyses. Variance partitioning showed that LGM climate uniquely explains a similar proportion of genetic variance as present climate (16% vs. 11–18%), and together, past and present climate explains more than geography (19%). Climate can influence local expansion–contraction dynamics, flowering phenology and thus gene flow, and/or impose selective pressures. These results highlight the lingering effect of past climate on genetic variation in species with stable distributions.