Prospecting and dispersal: their eco-evolutionary dynamics and implications for population patterns

Dispersal is not a blind process, and evidence is accumulating that individual dispersal strategies are informed in most, if not all, organisms. The acquisition and use of information are traits that may evolve across space and time as a function of the balance between costs and benefits of informed dispersal. If information is available, individuals can potentially use it in making better decisions, thereby increasing their fitness. However, prospecting for and using information probably entail costs that may constrain the evolution of informed dispersal, potentially with population-level consequences. By using individual-based, spatially explicit simulations, we detected clear coevolutionary dynamics between prospecting and dispersal movement strategies that differed in sign and magnitude depending on their respective costs. More specifically, we found that informed dispersal strategies evolve when the costs of information acquisition during prospecting are low but only if there are mortality costs associated with dispersal movements. That is, selection favours informed dispersal strategies when the acquisition and use processes themselves were not too expensive. When non-informed dispersal strategies evolve, they do so jointly with the evolution of long dispersal distance because this maximizes the sampling area. In some cases, selection produces dispersal rules different from those that would be ‘optimal’ (i.e. the best possible population performance—in our context quantitatively measured as population density and patch occupancy—among all possible individual movement rules) for the population. That is, on the one hand, informed dispersal strategies led to population performance below its highest possible level. On the other hand, un- and poorly informed individuals nearly optimized population performance, both in terms of density and patch occupancy.     

有色环境噪音对空间异质种群动态同步性的影响

随着种群动态和空间结构研究兴趣的增加,激发了大量的有关空间同步性的理论和实验的研究工作。空间种群的同步波动现象在自然界广泛存在,它的影响和原因引起了很多生态学家的兴趣。Moran定理是一个非常重要的解释。但以往的研究大多假设环境变化为空间相关的白噪音。越来越多的研究表明很多环境变化的时间序列具有正的时间自相关性,也就是说用红噪音来描述更加合理。因此,推广经典的Moran效应来处理空间相关红噪音的情形很有必要。利用线性的二阶自回归过程的种群模型,推导了两种群空间同步性与种群动态异质性和环境变化的时间相关性(即环境噪音的颜色)之间的关系。深入分析了种群异质性和噪音颜色对空间同步性的影响。结果表明种群动态异质性不利于空间同步性,但详细的关系比较复杂。而红色噪音的同步能力体现在两方面:一方面,本身的相关性对同步性有贡献;另一方面,环境变化时间相关性可以通过改变种群密度依赖来影响同步性,但对同步性的影响并无一致性的结论,依赖于种群的平均动态等因素。这些结果对理解同步性的机理、利用同步机理来制定物种保护策略和害虫防治都有重要的意义。     

Density-dependent dispersal and spatial population dynamics

The synchronization of the dynamics of spatially subdivided populations is of both fundamental and applied interest in population biology. Based on theoretical studies, dispersal movements have been inferred to be one of the most general causes of population synchrony, yet no empirical study has mapped distance-dependent estimates of movement rates on the actual pattern of synchrony in species that are known to exhibit population synchrony. Northern vole and lemming species are particularly well-known for their spatially synchronized population dynamics. Here, we use results from an experimental study to demonstrate that tundra vole dispersal movements did not act to synchronize population dynamics in fragmented habitats. In contrast to the constant dispersal rate assumed in earlier theoretical studies, the tundra vole, and many other species, exhibit negative density-dependent dispersal. Simulations of a simple mathematical model, parametrized on the basis of our experimental data, verify the empirical results, namely that the observed negative density-dependent dispersal did not have a significant synchronizing effect.     

Spatially autocorrelated disturbances and patterns in population synchrony

Spatially synchronous population dynamics have been documented in many taxa. The prevailing view is that the most plausible candidates to explain this pattern are extrinsic disturbances (the Moran effect) and dispersal. In most cases disentangling these factors is difficult. Theoretical studies have shown that dispersal between subpopulations is more likely to produce a negative relationship between population synchrony and distance between the patches than perturbations. As analyses of empirical data frequently show this negative relationship between the level of synchrony and distance between populations, this has emphasized the importance of dispersal as a synchronizing agent. However, several weather patterns show spatial autocorrelation, which could potentially produce patterns in population synchrony similar to those caused by dispersal. By using spatially extended versions of several population dynamic models, we show that this is indeed the case. Our results show that, especially when both factors (spatially autocorrelated perturbations and distance-dependent dispersal) act together, there may exist groups of local populations in synchrony together but fluctuating asynchronously with some other groups of local populations. We also show, by analysing 56 long-term population data sets, that patterns of population synchrony similar to those found in our simulations are found in natural populations as well. This finding highlights the subtlety in the interactions of dispersal and noise in organizing spatial patterns in population fluctuations.     

Spatial synchrony in red grouse population dynamics

Red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus populations exhibit unstable dynamics that are often characterised by regular periodic fluctuations in abundance. Time-series' of grouse harvesting records collected from 287 management units (moors) across Scotland, England and Wales were analysed to investigate the broad scale patterns of synchrony in these fluctuations. Estimation of the spatial autocorrelation of grouse population dynamics across moors indicates relatively high levels of synchrony between populations on adjacent moors, but that this synchrony declines sharply with increasing inter-moor distance. At distances of greater than 100  km, grouse population time-series exhibit only weakly positive cross-correlation coefficients. Twenty-eight geographical, environmental and other candidate variables were examined to construct a general linear model to explain variation in local synchrony. Grouse moor productivity (average size of shooting bag), distance from the Atlantic coast moving in a north-easterly direction, April and June temperatures, and June rainfall significantly increased the explanatory power of this model. An understanding of the processes underlying synchrony in red grouse population dynamics is a prerequisite to anticipating the effects of large-scale environmental change on regional patterns of grouse distribution and abundance.     

不同干扰下荒漠啮齿动物种群动态的空间同步性

荒漠啮齿动物是动物生态学研究中的重要类群,对于丰富种群和群落生态学理论具有重要意义.国外关于荒漠啮齿动物的研究较多,尤以北美的研究较为深入,涉及群落组成(Brown,1973)、生态位(Harris, 1984;Kenagy and Bartholomew, 1985)、物种共存(Brown and Munger,1985)、资源分享及微生境选择(Brown and Lieberman,1973;Price,1978)等方面;而国内关于荒漠啮齿动物研究相对较少.     

Effects of predation and dispersal on Mastomys natalensis population dynamics in Tanzanian maize fields

1. We investigate the effects of different levels of predation pressure and rodent dispersal on the population dynamics of the African pest rodent Mastomys natalensis in maize fields in Tanzania. 2. Three levels of predation risk were used in an experimental set-up: natural level (control), excluding predators by nets and attracting avian predators by nest boxes and perch poles. Because dispersal of the rodents could mask the predation pressure treatment effects, control and predator exclusion treatments were repeated with enclosed rodent populations. 3. Population growth during the annual population rise period was faster in the absence of predators and peak population size was higher, but otherwise dynamics patterns were similar for populations where predators had access or were attracted, indicating that compensatory mechanisms operate when rodents are exposed to high levels of predation risk. Reducing dispersal of rodents removed the effect of predation on population growth and peak size, suggesting that local predators may play a role in driving rodent dispersal, but have otherwise little direct effect on population dynamics.     

Effects of light dynamics on coral spawning synchrony

Synchrony of spawning in many hermatypic corals, typically a few nights after the full moon, is putatively dependent on solar and lunar light cycles in conjunction with other possible cues such as tides and temperature. We analyze here the contributions of separate components of light dynamics, because the effects of twilight and lunar skylight on coral spawning synchrony have previously been conflated and the alternative hypothesis that these components have differential contributions as proximate cues has not been tested. Moonlight-dependent changes in spectra during twilight, rates of decreasing twilight intensities, and changes in lunar photoperiod were experimentally decoupled using programmed light-emitting diodes and compared for their separate effects on spawning synchrony in Acropora humilis. Effects on synchrony under the control of synthetic lunar cues were greatest in response to changes in lunar photoperiod; changes in light intensities and spectra had lesser influence. No significant differences among treatment responses were found at the circa-diel time scale. We conclude that spawning synchrony on a particular lunar night and specific time of night is a threshold response to differential periods of darkness after twilight that is primarily influenced by lunar photoperiod and secondarily by discrete optical components of early nocturnal illumination.     

Effects of dispersal on local population increase

Work to date on biological invasions and the spread of biological control agents has been focused on the explicitly spatial aspects, such as rate of spread and shape of the wave front. There has been relatively little attention paid to the influence of dispersal on the rate of increase of local populations. We use a simple general model for logistic local growth and one-dimensional diffusive dispersal to show that dispersal can act as a substantial drain on local populations. Local increase at a site of introduction is always slower than would be expected in the absence of dispersal, while the rate of increase of other populations is initially enhanced, then reduced by dispersal. This may have an important effect when estimating population parameters for invading organisms or biological control agents during the initial stages of their spread, and helps explain the "latent period" typically observed in biological invasions.     

Dispersal and spatial scale affect synchrony in spatial population dynamics

A large body of theoretical studies has shown that synchrony among populations is critical for the long-term persistence of species in fragmented habitats. Although the effects of dispersal and environmental factors on synchrony have been investigated theoretically, empirical studies of these relationships have been lacking. We explored the interplay between environmental and demographic factors (fecundity, survival, dispersal) on population synchrony for 53 species of birds. We show that the interspecific differences in mean synchrony were determined by global environmental factors whose action was probably mediated by the abundance of each species. After removing the effect of these global factors on synchrony, the residual synchrony was strongly correlated with dispersal distance. The relationship between dispersal and synchrony was stronger for the species nesting in wet habitats than for those nesting in dry habitats. Our results indicate that different factors synchronize bird populations at different spatial scales, thus highlighting the role of scale in understanding spatial population dynamics and extinction risks.     

Effects of environmental synchrony and density-dependent dispersal on temporal and spatial slopes of Taylor's law

Taylor's law (TL) is an empirical rule that describes an approximate relationship between the variance and mean of population density: log₁₀(variance) ≈ log₁₀(a) + b × log₁₀(mean). Population synchrony is another prevailing feature observed in empirical populations. This study investigated the effects of environmental synchrony and density-dependent dispersal on the temporal (b_T) and spatial (b_S) slopes of TL, using an empirical dataset of gray-sided vole populations and simulation analyses based on the second-order autoregressive (AR) model. Eighty-five empirical populations satisfied the temporal and spatial TLs with b_T = 1.943 (±SE 0.143) and b_S = 1.579 (±SE 0.136). The pairwise synchrony of population was 0.377 ± 0.199 (mean ± SD). Most simulated populations that obeyed the AR model satisfied the form of the temporal and spatial TLs without being affected by the environmental synchrony and density-dependent dispersal; however, those simulated slopes were too steep. The incorporation of environmental synchrony resulted in reduced simulated slopes, but those slopes, too, were still unrealistically steep. By incorporating density-dependent dispersal, simulated slopes decreased and fell within a realistic range. However, the simulated populations without environmental synchrony did not exhibit an adequate degree of density synchrony. In simulations that included both environmental synchrony and density-dependent dispersal, 92.7% of the simulated datasets provided realistic values for b_T, b_S and population synchrony. Because the two slopes were more sensitive to the variation of density-dependent dispersal than that of environmental synchrony, density-dependent dispersal may be the key to the determination of b_T and b_S.     

Effects of dispersal plasticity on population divergence and speciation

Phenotypic plasticity is thought to have a role in driving population establishment, local adaptation and speciation. However, dispersal plasticity has been underappreciated in this literature. Plasticity in the decision to disperse is taxonomically widespread and I provide examples for insects, molluscs, polychaetes, vertebrates and flowering plants. Theoretical work is limited but indicates an interaction between dispersal distance and plasticity in the decision to disperse. When dispersal is confined to adjacent patches, dispersal plasticity may enhance local adaptation over unconditional (non-plastic) dispersal. However, when dispersal distances are greater, plasticity in dispersal decisions strongly reduces the potential for local adaptation and population divergence. Upon dispersal, settlement may be random, biased but genetically determined, or biased but plastically determined. Theory shows that biased settlement of either type increases population divergence over random settlement. One model suggests that plasticity further enhances chances of speciation. However, there are many strategies for deciding on where to settle such as a best-of-N strategy, sequential sampling with a threshold for acceptance or matching with natal habitat. To date, these strategies do not seem to have been compared within a single model. Although we are just beginning to explore evolutionary effects of dispersal plasticity, it clearly has the potential to enhance as well as inhibit population divergence. Additional work should pay particular attention to dispersal distance and the strategy used to decide on where to settle.     

Spatial and temporal synchrony in reptile population dynamics in variable environments

Resources are seldom distributed equally across space, but many species exhibit spatially synchronous population dynamics. Such synchrony suggests the operation of large-scale external drivers, such as rainfall or wildfire, or the influence of oasis sites that provide water, shelter, or other resources. However, testing the generality of these factors is not easy, especially in variable environments. Using a long-term dataset (13–22 years) from a large (8000 km²) study region in arid Central Australia, we tested firstly for regional synchrony in annual rainfall and the dynamics of six reptile species across nine widely separated sites. For species that showed synchronous spatial dynamics, we then used multivariate follow a multivariate auto-regressive state–space (MARSS) models to predict that regional rainfall would be positively associated with their populations. For asynchronous species, we used MARSS models to explore four other possible population structures: (1) populations were asynchronous, (2) differed between oasis and non-oasis sites, (3) differed between burnt and unburnt sites, or (4) differed between three sub-regions with different rainfall gradients. Only one species showed evidence of spatial population synchrony and our results provide little evidence that rainfall synchronizes reptile populations. The oasis or the wildfire hypotheses were the best-fitting models for the other five species. Thus, our six study species appear generally to be structured in space into one or two populations across the study region. Our findings suggest that for arid-dwelling reptile populations, spatial and temporal dynamics are structured by abiotic events, but individual responses to covariates at smaller spatial scales are complex and poorly understood.     

白鹇种群分布与栖息地斑块特征的关系

为了解白鹇(Lophura nycthemera)种群分布与栖息地斑块特征之间的关系,于1998年9月至1999年8月在浙江省古田山国家自然保护区及其外围地区对白鹇种群进行调查.通过羽迹法调查并估计斑块内局部种群数量的相对大小,分析斑块内植被及景观特征对斑块占有及种群相对密度大小的影响.结果表明,斑块面积、总盖度、乔木层盖度和灌木层高度等对斑块内有无白鹇出现影响显著,斑块面积大、总盖度及乔木层盖度高、灌木层高度高的斑块内白鹇出现率高,斑块面积大则局部种群的相对密度也大,两者间呈极显著正线性相关.     

Spatial synchrony in Drosophila suzukii population dynamics along elevational gradients

1. Spotted wing drosophila (SWD; Drosophila suzukii Matsumura, 1931) is a polyphagous invasive crop pest native of Southeast Asia able to attack a wide array of host plant species in both cultivated and natural habitats. SWD is now widespread in several mountain regions, but it is still unclear how the species moves to different elevations across the seasons, and how this depends on environmental conditions and food resources. 2. The temporal dynamics of several SWD populations were studied along elevational gradients in the Alps using a synchrony analysis. Twelve transects were selected, covering an overall elevational gradient of 2100 m. SWD abundance was monitored every 2 weeks during the growing season (from June to November 2015) when cultivated and wild hosts are potentially susceptible (i.e. fruits are ripe). 3. Spotted wing drosophila were widely distributed along all the tested elevations, revealing synchrony in population dynamics across ranges in elevation and geographic distance. Synchronised populations were observed at distances of up to 100 km at sites with similar temperatures. The high dispersal potential of the pest together with the seasonal variation in temperature are likely to be the dominant mechanisms causing the observed spatial synchrony. A factor that seemed to reduce synchrony is the large concentration of host plants (i.e. crop) in lowland agricultural landscapes. 4. The spatial synchrony in pest abundance at large spatial scale indicates that the risk of SWD outbreaks is highly dependent on drivers beyond the control of traditional field‐scale management. These findings could help in developing monitoring and predictive models of SWD population dynamics.     

瓢虫种群对棉花-玉米农田景观格局的响应

本文研究了华北棉花-玉米农田景观格局中龟纹瓢虫Propylaea japonica(Thunberg)和异色瓢虫Harmonia axyridis(Pallas)种群动态,发现农田景观格局中作物类型(棉花与玉米)对两种瓢虫种群密度动态有显著的影响,两种天敌瓢虫都趋向在玉米斑块上栖息。两种瓢虫在棉花斑块上呈现出时间分化,其中龟纹瓢虫在棉花种植的前中期种群密度较大,后期较少;而异色瓢虫在棉花前中期种群密度较少,后期较多,表明农田景观中种植玉米有利于增强瓢虫对棉花害虫的控制作用。进一步的研究表明,农田景观系统中玉米斑块所占的面积比对龟纹瓢虫和异色瓢虫种群密度均产生显著影响。这说明在农田景观系统中开展区域性生态调控的时候,需要考虑到各类斑块组合的面积比例,从而有利于增强多种天敌昆虫的协调控害作用。     

The influence of stage-dependent dispersal on the population dynamics of three amphipod species

In metapopulations, the maintenance of local populations can depend on source–sink dynamics, where populations with positive growth rate seed populations with negative growth rate. The pattern and probability of successful dispersal among habitats can therefore be crucial in determining whether local populations will become rare or increase in abundance. We present here data on the dispersal strategy and population dynamics of three marine amphipods living in pen shells (Atrina rigida) in the Gulf of Mexico. The three amphipod species in this study disperse at different life stages. Neomegamphopus hiatus and Melita nitida disperse as adults, while Bemlos unicornis disperses as juveniles. The two species that disperse as adults have the highest initial population sizes when a new shell becomes available, likely caused by the arriving females releasing their brood into these recently occupied shells. This dispersal pattern results in initially higher population growth, but fewer occupied shells, as noted by their clumped distribution. In contrast, the species that disperses as juveniles accumulates more slowly and more evenly across habitats, eventually dominating the other two in terms of numerical abundance. The metapopulation dynamics of the three species seems to be highly dependent on the life history stage involved in dispersal. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.