Nanopore sequencing: a rapid solution for infectious disease epidemics

<正>Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases have given rise to a large number of human infections, morbidity, and heavy economic burden, including the Middle East respiratory syndrome caused by a coronavirus in 2012, global influenza pandemic caused by the H7N9 influenza A virus in2013, Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, and Lassa fever epidemic in Nigeria in 2019. The healthcare war against viruses deserves constant surveillance due to the continuous emergence of new viruses and rapid evolution of     

Coupling effects on turning points of infectious diseases epidemics in scale-free networks

Background

Pandemic is a typical spreading phenomenon that can be observed in the human society and is dependent on the structure of the social network. The Susceptible-Infective-Recovered (SIR) model describes spreading phenomena using two spreading factors; contagiousness (β) and recovery rate (γ). Some network models are trying to reflect the social network, but the real structure is difficult to uncover.

Methods

We have developed a spreading phenomenon simulator that can input the epidemic parameters and network parameters and performed the experiment of disease propagation. The simulation result was analyzed to construct a new marker VRTP distribution. We also induced the VRTP formula for three of the network mathematical models.

Results

We suggest new marker VRTP (value of recovered on turning point) to describe the coupling between the SIR spreading and the Scale-free (SF) network and observe the aspects of the coupling effects with the various of spreading and network parameters. We also derive the analytic formulation of VRTP in the fully mixed model, the configuration model, and the degree-based model respectively in the mathematical function form for the insights on the relationship between experimental simulation and theoretical consideration.

Conclusions

We discover the coupling effect between SIR spreading and SF network through devising novel marker VRTP which reflects the shifting effect and relates to entropy.

     

International infrastructure to control infectious diseases

Remarkable gains in the control of infectious diseases have occurred during the twentieth century. These have permitted life expectancles to approach 80 years for one fifth of the world's population. To effect reductions in child mortality to the rest, structured changes such as economic improvement, basic sanitation, education, reduced population growth and improvements in agriculture and nutrition are needed. Nearly US$40 billion in development investment supports these fundamental changes. For the near term, vertical programmes such as the Expanded Program on Immunization afford critical reductions in child mortality at relatively low cost. A network of multinational and bilateral agencies support structural and programmatic changes. Research holds the promise of improving still further the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of infectious disease control programmes. Leading causes of child mortality and their social and economic correlates are reviewed.This paper was presented at the IUMS Symposium on New Developments in Diagnosis and Control of Infectious Diseases held in conjunction with the Eighth International Congress of Virology, Berlin, Germany, 24–31 August 1990.     

Engineering the control of mosquito-borne infectious diseases

Recent advances in genetic engineering are bringing new promise for controlling mosquito populations that transmit deadly pathogens. Here we discuss past and current efforts to engineer mosquito strains that are refractory to disease transmission or are suitable for suppressing wild disease-transmitting populations.     

Timely identification of optimal control strategies for emerging infectious diseases

Background

Health authorities must rely on quarantine, isolation, and other non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain outbreaks of newly emerging human diseases.

Methods

We modeled a generic disease caused by a pathogen apparently transmitted by close interpersonal contact, but about which little else is known. In our model, people may be infectious while incubating or during their prodrome or acute illness. We derived an expression for ℜ, the reproduction number, took its partial derivatives with respect to control parameters, and encoded these analytical results in a user-friendly Mathematica™ notebook. With biological parameters for SARS estimated from the initial case series in Hong Kong and infection rates from hospitalizations in Singapore, we determined ℜ's sensitivity to control parameters.

Results

Stage-specific infection rate estimates from cases hospitalized before quarantine began exceed those from the entire outbreak, but are qualitatively similar: infectiousness was negligible until symptom onset, and increased 10-fold from prodrome to acute illness. Given such information, authorities might instead have emphasized a strategy whose efficiency more than compensates for any possible reduction in efficacy.

Conclusions

In future outbreaks of new human diseases transmitted via close interpersonal contact, it should be possible to identify the optimal intervention early enough to facilitate effective decision-making.     

Scaling properties of childhood infectious diseases epidemics before and after mass vaccination in Canada

The goal of this paper is to analyse the scaling properties of childhood infectious disease time-series data. We present a scaling analysis of the distribution of epidemic sizes of measles, rubella, pertussis, and mumps outbreaks in Canada. This application provides a new approach in assessing infectious disease dynamics in a large vaccinated population. An inverse power-law (IPL) distribution function has been fit to the time series of epidemic sizes, and the results assessed against an exponential benchmark model. We have found that the rubella epidemic size distribution and that of measles in highly vaccinated periods follow an IPL. The IPL suggests the presence of a scale-invariant network for these diseases as a result of the heterogeneity of the individual contact rates. By contrast, it was found that pertussis and mumps were characterized by a uniform network of transmission of the exponential type, which suggests homogeneity in the contact rate or, more likely, boiled down heterogeneity by large intermixing in the population. We conclude that the topology of the network of infectious contacts depends on the disease type and its infection rate. It also appears that the socio-demographic structure of the population may play a part (e.g. pattern of contacts according to age) in the structuring of the topology of the network. The findings suggest that there is relevant information hidden in the variation of the common contagious disease time-series data, and that this information can have a bearing on the strategy of vaccination programs.     

A selectable and excisable marker system for the rapid creation of recombinant poxviruses

Background

Genetic manipulation of poxvirus genomes through attenuation, or insertion of therapeutic genes has led to a number of vector candidates for the treatment of a variety of human diseases. The development of recombinant poxviruses often involves the genomic insertion of a selectable marker for purification and selection purposes. The use of marker genes however inevitably results in a vector that contains unwanted genetic information of no therapeutic value.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here we describe an improved strategy that allows for the creation of marker-free recombinant poxviruses of any species. The Selectable and Excisable Marker (SEM) system incorporates a unique fusion marker gene for the efficient selection of poxvirus recombinants and the Cre/loxP system to facilitate the subsequent removal of the marker. We have defined and characterized this new methodological tool by insertion of a foreign gene into vaccinia virus, with the subsequent removal of the selectable marker. We then analyzed the importance of loxP orientation during Cre recombination, and show that the SEM system can be used to introduce site-specific deletions or inversions into the viral genome. Finally, we demonstrate that the SEM strategy is amenable to other poxviruses, as demonstrated here with the creation of an ectromelia virus recombinant lacking the EVM002 gene.

Conclusion/Significance

The system described here thus provides a faster, simpler and more efficient means to create clinic-ready recombinant poxviruses for therapeutic gene therapy applications.     

Neighbourhood control policies and the spread of infectious diseases

We present a model of a control programme for a disease outbreak in a population of livestock holdings. Control is achieved by culling infectious holdings when they are discovered and by the pre-emptive culling of livestock on holdings deemed to be at enhanced risk of infection. Because the pre-emptive control programme cannot directly identify exposed holdings, its implementation will result in the removal of both infected and uninfected holdings. This leads to a fundamental trade-off: increased levels of control produce a greater reduction in transmission by removing more exposed holdings, but increase the number of uninfected holdings culled. We derive an expression for the total number of holdings culled during the course of an outbreak and demonstrate that there is an optimal control policy, which minimizes this loss. Using a metapopulation model to incorporate local clustering of infection, we examine a neighbourhood control programme in a locally spreading outbreak. We find that there is an optimal level of control, which increases with increasing basic reproduction ratio, R(0); moreover, implementation of control may be optimal even when R(0) < 1. The total loss to the population is relatively insensitive to the level of control as it increases beyond the optimal level, suggesting that over-control is a safer policy than under-control.     

Recommendations for control of pathogens and infectious diseases in fish research facilities

Concerns about infectious diseases in fish used for research have risen along with the dramatic increase in the use of fish as models in biomedical research. In addition to acute diseases causing severe morbidity and mortality, underlying chronic conditions that cause low-grade or subclinical infections may confound research results. Here we present recommendations and strategies to avoid or minimize the impacts of infectious agents in fishes maintained in the research setting. There are distinct differences in strategies for control of pathogens in fish used for research compared to fishes reared as pets or in aquaculture. Also, much can be learned from strategies and protocols for control of diseases in rodents used in research, but there are differences. This is due, in part, the unique aquatic environment that is modified by the source and quality of the water provided and the design of facilities. The process of control of pathogens and infectious diseases in fish research facilities is relatively new, and will be an evolving process over time. Nevertheless, the goal of documenting, detecting, and excluding pathogens in fish is just as important as in mammalian research models.     

Social contact patterns in Vietnam and implications for the control of infectious diseases

Background

The spread of infectious diseases from person to person is determined by the frequency and nature of contacts between infected and susceptible members of the population. Although there is a long history of using mathematical models to understand these transmission dynamics, there are still remarkably little empirical data on contact behaviors with which to parameterize these models. Even starker is the almost complete absence of data from developing countries. We sought to address this knowledge gap by conducting a household based social contact diary in rural Vietnam.

Methods and Findings

A diary based survey of social contact patterns was conducted in a household-structured community cohort in North Vietnam in 2007. We used generalized estimating equations to model the number of contacts while taking into account the household sampling design, and used weighting to balance the household size and age distribution towards the Vietnamese population. We recorded 6675 contacts from 865 participants in 264 different households and found that mixing patterns were assortative by age but were more homogenous than observed in a recent European study. We also observed that physical contacts were more concentrated in the home setting in Vietnam than in Europe but the overall level of physical contact was lower. A model of individual versus household vaccination strategies revealed no difference between strategies in the impact on R ₀.

Conclusions and Significance

This work is the first to estimate contact patterns relevant to the spread of infections transmitted from person to person by non-sexual routes in a developing country setting. The results show interesting similarities and differences from European data and demonstrate the importance of context specific data.