Climatic changes can drive the loss of genetic diversity in a Neotropical savanna tree species

The high rates of future climatic changes, compared with the rates reported for past changes, may hamper species adaptation to new climates or the tracking of suitable conditions, resulting in significant loss of genetic diversity. Trees are dominant species in many biomes and because they are long‐lived, they may not be able to cope with ongoing climatic changes. Here, we coupled ecological niche modelling (ENM) and genetic simulations to forecast the effects of climatic changes on the genetic diversity and the structure of genetic clusters. Genetic simulations were conditioned to climatic variables and restricted to plant dispersal and establishment. We used a Neotropical savanna tree as species model that shows a preference for hot and drier climates, but with low temperature seasonality. The ENM predicts a decreasing range size along the more severe future climatic scenario. Additionally, genetic diversity and allelic richness also decrease with range retraction and climatic genetic clusters are lost for both future scenarios, which will lead genetic variability to homogenize throughout the landscape. Besides, climatic genetic clusters will spatially reconfigure on the landscape following displacements of climatic conditions. Our findings indicate that climate change effects will challenge population adaptation to new environmental conditions because of the displacement of genetic ancestry clusters from their optimal conditions.     

Future increase in temperature more than decrease in litter quality can affect microbial litter decomposition in streams

The predicted increase in atmospheric CO(2) concentration for this century is expected to lead to increases in temperature and changes in litter quality that can affect small woodland streams, where water temperature is usually low and allochthonous organic matter constitutes the basis of the food web. We have assessed the individual and interactive effect of water temperature (5 and 10°C) and alder litter quality produced under ambient CO(2) levels (ambient litter) or under CO(2) concentrations predicted for 2050 (elevated litter) on litter decomposition and on fungal activity and assemblage structure. Litter decomposition rates and fungal respiration rates were significantly faster at 10 than at 5°C, but they were not affected by litter quality. Litter quality affected mycelial biomass accrual at 5 but not at 10°C, while increases in temperature stimulated biomass accrual on ambient but not on elevated litter. A similar pattern was observed for conidial production. All variables were stimulated on elevated litter at 10°C (future scenario) compared with ambient litter at 5°C (present scenario), but interactions between temperature and litter quality were additive. Temperature was the factor that most strongly affected the structure of aquatic hyphomycete assemblages. Our results indicate that if future increases in atmospheric CO(2) lead to only slight modifications in litter quality, the litter decomposition and fungal activities and community structure will be strongly controlled by increased water temperature. This may have serious consequences for aquatic systems as faster litter decomposition may lead to food depletion for higher trophic levels.     

Water-energy relationships shape the phylogenetic diversity of terricolous lichen communities in Mediterranean mountains: Implications for conservation in a climate change scenario

Lichens are symbiotic organisms sensitive to climate change and susceptible to a severe decline in diversity, especially in high elevation environments that are already threatened. In this study, we focused on water-energy relationships derived from climatic variables and phylogenetic diversity indices of terricolous lichen communities occurring on a representative Mediterranean mountain. We hypothesized that the variation of precipitation and temperature and their interaction along the altitudinal gradient will shape the phylogenetic diversity and structure of lichen communities. Our results reveal that dry and arid conditions lead to a strong loss in phylogenetic diversity with consequent impoverishment of high elevation lichen communities under a climate change scenario. The interaction between variables, reflecting water-energy relationships with phylogenetic and community diversity patterns, suggests that in a future climate change scenario, the novel climatic conditions may reduce the capability of the species to survive harsher conditions, and Mediterranean mountains may face a severe loss of genetic diversity in a climate change scenario.     

Low mountain ranges: summit traps for montane freshwater species under climate change

Global climate change (GCC) is expected to lead to massive loss of global biodiversity in the alpine regions of mountain ranges. Studies on the potential effects of GCC on low mountain areas remain sparse, however, despite the high conservation value of these areas as biodiversity refugia. We chose a species distribution modeling approach to assess potential GCC impacts on the future distributions of montane freshwater invertebrates under two different greenhouse gas scenarios and three averaged general circulation models. For this, ensemble models consisting of six algorithms [generalized linear model (GLM), generalized boosted model (GBM), generalized additive model (GAM), classification tree analysis (CTA), artificial neural networks (ANN), and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS)] were applied to project areas of 23 cold-stenothermic aquatic insects from montane regions of Central Europe. We found an average loss of 70–80% of the potential distribution for the study species until 2080, depending on the underlying Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario. Species distribution ranges below 1000 m above sea level were found to decrease by up to ~96% according to the severest greenhouse gas emission scenario. While the Alps remain the single main refugium under the A2a greenhouse gas emission scenario, the more moderate climate scenario B2a shows fragmented potential persistence of montane insects in some low mountain ranges. The results show that montane freshwater assemblages in low mountain ranges are particularly threatened by ongoing GCC. As vertical dispersal is limited by elevational restriction, low mountain ranges may act as summit traps under GCC. We thus propose that GCC will lead to the extinction of several species and unique genetic lineages of postglacial relict species, resulting in a significant decline in Central European fauna.     

First evidence of immunomodulation in bivalves under seawater acidification and increased temperature

Water acidification, temperature increases and changes in seawater salinity are predicted to occur in the near future. In such a global climate change (GCC) scenario, there is growing concern for the health status of both wild and farmed organisms. Bivalve molluscs, an important component of coastal marine ecosystems, are at risk. At the immunological level, the ability of an organism to maintain its immunosurveillance unaltered under adverse environmental conditions may enhance its survival capability. To our knowledge, only a few studies have investigated the effects of changing environmental parameters (as predicted in a GCC scenario) on the immune responses of bivalves. In the present study, the effects of both decreased pH values and increased temperature on the important immune parameters of two bivalve species were evaluated for the first time. The clam Chamelea gallina and the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis, widespread along the coast of the Northwestern Adriatic Sea, were chosen as model organisms. Bivalves were exposed for 7 days to three pH values (8.1, 7.7 and 7.4) at two temperatures (22 and 28°C). Three independent experiments were carried out at salinities of 28, 34 and 40 PSU. The total haemocyte count, Neutral Red uptake, haemolymph lysozyme activity and total protein levels were measured. The results obtained demonstrated that tested experimental conditions affected significantly most of the immune parameters measured in bivalves, even if the variation pattern of haemocyte responses was not always linear. Between the two species, C. gallina appeared more vulnerable to changing pH and temperature than M. galloprovincialis. Overall, this study demonstrated that climate changes can strongly affect haemocyte functionality in bivalves. However, further studies are needed to clarify better the mechanisms of action of changing environmental parameters, both individually and in combination, on bivalve haemocytes.     

The impact of global climate change on genetic diversity within populations and species

Genetic diversity provides the basic substrate for evolution, yet few studies assess the impacts of global climate change (GCC) on intraspecific genetic variation. In this review, we highlight the importance of incorporating neutral and non‐neutral genetic diversity when assessing the impacts of GCC, for example, in studies that aim to predict the future distribution and fate of a species or ecological community. Specifically, we address the following questions: Why study the effects of GCC on intraspecific genetic diversity? How does GCC affect genetic diversity? How is the effect of GCC on genetic diversity currently studied? Where is potential for future research? For each of these questions, we provide a general background and highlight case studies across the animal, plant and microbial kingdoms. We further discuss how cryptic diversity can affect GCC assessments, how genetic diversity can be integrated into studies that aim to predict species' responses on GCC and how conservation efforts related to GCC can incorporate and profit from inclusion of genetic diversity assessments. We argue that studying the fate of intraspecifc genetic diversity is an indispensable and logical venture if we are to fully understand the consequences of GCC on biodiversity on all levels.     

Global diversity patterns of larger benthic foraminifera under future climate change

Global warming threatens the viability of tropical coral reefs and associated marine calcifiers, including symbiont-bearing larger benthic foraminifera (LBF). The impacts of current climate change on LBF are debated because they were particularly diverse and abundant during past warm periods. Studies on the responses of selected LBF species to changing environmental conditions reveal varying results. Based on a comprehensive review of the scientific literature on LBF species occurrences, we applied species distribution modeling using Maxent to estimate present-day and future species richness patterns on a global scale for the time periods 2040–2050 and 2090–2100. For our future projections, we focus on Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which projects mean surface temperature changes of +2.2°C by the year 2100. Our results suggest that species richness in the Central Indo-Pacific is two to three times higher than in the Bahamian ecoregion, which we have identified as the present-day center of LBF diversity in the Atlantic. Our future predictions project a dramatic temperature-driven decline in low-latitude species richness and an increasing widening bimodal latitudinal pattern of species diversity. While the central Indo-Pacific, now the stronghold of LBF diversity, is expected to be most pushed outside of the currently realized niches of most species, refugia may be largely preserved in the Atlantic. LBF species will face large-scale non-analogous climatic conditions compared to currently realized climate space in the near future, as reflected in the extensive areas of extrapolation, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. Our study supports hypotheses that species richness and biogeographic patterns of LBF will fundamentally change under future climate conditions, possibly initiating a faunal turnover by the late 21st century.     

Population connectivity and genetic diversity of American marten (Martes americana) in the United States northern Rocky Mountains in a climate change context

Climate change is likely to alter population connectivity, particularly for species associated with higher elevation environments. The goal of this study is to predict the potential effects of future climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of American marten populations across a 30.2 million hectare region of the in the US northern Rocky Mountains. We use a landscape resistance model validated from empirical landscape genetics modeling to predict the current and expected future extent and fragmentation of American marten dispersal habitat under five climate change scenarios, corresponding to climatic warming of between 0.7 and 3.3 °C, consistent with expected climate change by year 2080. We predict the regions of the current and future landscapes where gene flow is expected to be governed by isolation by distance and the regions where population fragmentation is expected to limit gene flow. Finally, we predict changes in the strength and location of predicted movement corridors, fracture zones and the location of dispersal barriers across the study area in each scenario. We found that under the current climate, gene flow is predicted to be limited primarily by distance (isolation), and landscape structure does not significantly limit gene flow, resulting in very high genetic diversity over most of the study area. Projected climatic warming substantially reduces the extent and increases the fragmentation of marten populations in the western and northwestern parts of the study area. In contrast, climate change is not predicted to fragment the extensive higher elevation mountain massifs in central Idaho, the northern U.S. continental divide, and Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. In addition, we show locations in the study area that are important corridors in the current landscape that remain intact across the climate change scenarios.     

Tackling intraspecific genetic structure in distribution models better reflects species geographical range

Genetic diversity provides insight into heterogeneous demographic and adaptive history across organisms’ distribution ranges. For this reason, decomposing single species into genetic units may represent a powerful tool to better understand biogeographical patterns as well as improve predictions of the effects of GCC (global climate change) on biodiversity loss. Using 279 georeferenced Iberian accessions, we used classes of three intraspecific genetic units of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana obtained from the genetic analyses of nuclear SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms), chloroplast SNPs, and the vernalization requirement for flowering. We used SDM (species distribution models), including climate, vegetation, and soil data, at the whole‐species and genetic‐unit levels. We compared model outputs for present environmental conditions and with a particularly severe GCC scenario. SDM accuracy was high for genetic units with smaller distribution ranges. Kernel density plots identified the environmental variables underpinning potential distribution ranges of genetic units. Combinations of environmental variables accounted for potential distribution ranges of genetic units, which shrank dramatically with GCC at almost all levels. Only two genetic clusters increased their potential distribution ranges with GCC. The application of SDM to intraspecific genetic units provides a detailed picture on the biogeographical patterns of distinct genetic groups based on different genetic criteria. Our approach also allowed us to pinpoint the genetic changes, in terms of genetic background and physiological requirements for flowering, that Iberian A. thaliana may experience with a GCC scenario applying SDM to intraspecific genetic units.     

Climate change may alter genetic diversity of Duchesnea indica,a clonal plant species

Climate change may alter the genetic diversity of plants. However, the relationship between genetic diversity in clonal plant species and climate change is unclear. To address this, we examined a representative clonal plant species, Duchesnea indica. We used microsatellite markers to analyze the genetic diversity of the species and used a correlation analysis to infer the relationship between climatic suitability and genetic diversity by using Maxent modeling. Then, we used a geographical information system approach to evaluate the change in genetic diversity of D. indica under climate change scenarios. There was a significantly negative relationship between climatic suitability and the genetic diversity of the clonal plant species. Using a proxy of genetic diversity, we found that climate change may alter the genetic diversity and even lead to a reduction in regional genetic diversity in D. indica. Annual precipitation, in particular, contributes to these changes in genetic diversity. Hence, climatic factors can be used as indicators of genetic diversity for clonal plant species, and studies should examine the impact of climate change on the maintenance of genetic diversity in plant species.     

Ecological genetics and seed transfer guidelines for Pinus albicaulis (Pinaceae)

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) has greatly declined throughout its range as a result of introduced disease, fire suppression, and other factors, and climate change is predicted to accelerate this decline. Restoration is needed; however, no information regarding the degree of local adaptation is available to guide these efforts. A seedling common-garden experiment was employed to assess genetic diversity and geographic differentiation (Q(ST)) of whitebark pine for traits involved in growth and adaptation to cold and to determine climatic variables revealing local adaptation. Seedlings from 48 populations were grown for two years and measured for height increment, biomass, root to shoot ratio, date of needle flush, fall and spring cold injury, and survival. Significant variation was observed among populations for most traits. The Q(ST) was low (0.07-0.14) for growth traits and moderate (0.36-0.47) for cold adaptation related traits, but varied by region. Cold adaptation traits were strongly correlated with mean temperature of the coldest month of population origins, while growth traits were generally correlated with growing season length. We recommend that seed transfer for restoration favor seed movement from milder to colder climates to a maximum of 1.9°C in mean annual temperature in the northern portion of the species range, and 1.0°C in the U. S. Rocky Mountains to avoid maladaptation to current conditions yet facilitate adaptation to future climates.     

Potential changes in the distributions of latitudinally restricted Australian butterfly species in response to climate change

This study assessed potential changes in the distributions of Australian butterfly species in response to global warming. The bioclimatic program, BIOCLIM, was used to determine the current climatic ranges of 77 butterfly species restricted to Australia. We found that the majority of these species had fairly wide climatic ranges in comparison to other taxa, with only 8% of butterfly species having a mean annual temperature range spanning less than 3 °C. The potential changes in the distributions of 24 butterfly species under four climate change scenarios for 2050 were also modelled using BIOCLIM. Results suggested that even species with currently wide climatic ranges may still be vulnerable to climate change; under a very conservative climate change scenario (with a temperature increase of 0.8–1.4 °C by 2050) 88% of species distributions decreased, and 54% of species distributions decreased by at least 20%. Under an extreme scenario (temperature increase of 2.1–3.9 °C by 2050) 92% of species distributions decreased, and 83% of species distributions decreased by at least 50%. Furthermore, the proportion of the current range that was contained within the predicted range decreased from an average of 63% under a very conservative scenario to less than 22% under the most extreme scenario. By assessing the climatic ranges that species are currently exposed to, the extent of potential changes in distributions in response to climate change and details of their life histories, we identified species whose characteristics may make them particularly vulnerable to climate change in the future.     

气候变化情景下基于最大熵模型的中国西南地区清香木潜在分布格局模拟

清香木(Pistacia weinmannifolia)是中国西南干旱河谷植被的特征种。本文利用野外调查的165个清香木分布点信息以及22个环境变量数据, 基于最大熵(Maxent)算法构建清香木分布的适宜生境预测模型, 并据此模拟清香木在我国西南地区的适宜分布区, 以及历史和未来不同气候情景下的分布格局变化。结果表明: 清香木生境预测的Maxent模型准确性非常高(AUC = 0.974), 温度季节性变化、极端低温和降水量是限制其分布的主要气候因子。清香木当前的潜在分布区集中在我国西南干旱河谷区, 其适宜生境的气候特征是降水少、温度季节性变化小且无极端低温。对清香木在末次间冰期和末次冰盛期分布的模拟结果表明, 其分布区范围均以诸大江河的河谷为中心, 随气候变化在我国西南地区主要呈现先向东扩张, 然后向西退缩的趋势, 并印证了“冰期走出横断山(glacial out-of-Hengduan Mts.)”的观点。在未来(2061-2080年) 3种典型浓度路径(representative concentration pathway, RCP)的气候情景下, 清香木在我国西南地区的分布都向东扩张, 主要分布在云贵高原与四川盆地结合地带的河谷, 以及云贵高原与广西西部交界地带的河谷中, 这也反映了这些地区河谷地段干旱化的可能, 而当前的潜在分布区趋于消失; 清香木的潜在适宜分布面积在中低浓度路径情景下均将减少约33%, 而在高浓度路径情景下有所增加。     

Genetic diversity is related to climatic variation and vulnerability in threatened bull trout

Understanding how climatic variation influences ecological and evolutionary processes is crucial for informed conservation decision‐making. Nevertheless, few studies have measured how climatic variation influences genetic diversity within populations or how genetic diversity is distributed across space relative to future climatic stress. Here, we tested whether patterns of genetic diversity (allelic richness) were related to climatic variation and habitat features in 130 bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) populations from 24 watersheds (i.e., ~4–7th order river subbasins) across the Columbia River Basin, USA. We then determined whether bull trout genetic diversity was related to climate vulnerability at the watershed scale, which we quantified on the basis of exposure to future climatic conditions (projected scenarios for the 2040s) and existing habitat complexity. We found a strong gradient in genetic diversity in bull trout populations across the Columbia River Basin, where populations located in the most upstream headwater areas had the greatest genetic diversity. After accounting for spatial patterns with linear mixed models, allelic richness in bull trout populations was positively related to habitat patch size and complexity, and negatively related to maximum summer temperature and the frequency of winter flooding. These relationships strongly suggest that climatic variation influences evolutionary processes in this threatened species and that genetic diversity will likely decrease due to future climate change. Vulnerability at a watershed scale was negatively correlated with average genetic diversity (r = ?0.77; P < 0.001); watersheds containing populations with lower average genetic diversity generally had the lowest habitat complexity, warmest stream temperatures, and greatest frequency of winter flooding. Together, these findings have important conservation implications for bull trout and other imperiled species. Genetic diversity is already depressed where climatic vulnerability is highest; it will likely erode further in the very places where diversity may be most needed for future persistence.     

Water quality and the occurrence of Chironomus riparius Meigen (Diptera: Chironomidae) in a stream receiving sewage effluent

SUMMARY. The effects of a sewage effluent in Moat Brook, Staffordshire, were determined from regular collections of water and biological samples from directly comparable stations above and below the sewage outfall.
The eutrophic conditions below the outfall result in the replacement of Polypedilum laetum by Chironomus riparius (except in the spring) as the dominant member of the Chironominae. Continuous recruitment of first instar larvae to the population of C. riparius in summer and autumn results in much overlap of generations, but emergence trap captures suggest at least five generations in the year.
The usefulness of C. riparius as an indicator of enriched conditions in lotic ecosystems should be considered in relation to oviposition behaviour and the occurrence and seasonal variation in density of the adults and aquatic stages (including the more conspicuous third and fourth instar larvae).     

Climate extremes are associated with invertebrate taxonomic and functional composition in mountain lakes

Climate change is expected to increase climate variability and the occurrence of extreme climatic events, with potentially devastating effects on aquatic ecosystems. However, little is known about the role of climate extremes in structuring aquatic communities or the interplay between climate and local abiotic and biotic factors. Here, we examine the relative influence of climate and local abiotic and biotic conditions on biodiversity and community structure in lake invertebrates. We sampled aquatic invertebrates and measured environmental variables in 19 lakes throughout California, USA, to test hypotheses of the relationship between climate, local biotic and environmental conditions, and the taxonomic and functional structure of aquatic invertebrate communities. We found that, while local biotic and abiotic factors such as habitat availability and conductivity were the most consistent predictors of alpha diversity, extreme climate conditions such as maximum summer temperature and dry‐season precipitation were most often associated with multivariate taxonomic and functional composition. Specifically, sites with high maximum temperatures and low dry‐season precipitation housed communities containing high abundances of large predatory taxa. Furthermore, both climate dissimilarity and abiotic dissimilarity determined taxonomic turnover among sites (beta diversity). These findings suggest that while local‐scale environmental variables may predict alpha diversity, climatic variability is important to consider when projecting broad‐scale aquatic community responses to the extreme temperature and precipitation events that are expected for much of the world during the next century.     

Predicting the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of an imperiled freshwater mussel,Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Margaritiferidae), in riverine systems

In the face of global climate change, organisms may respond to temperature increases by shifting their ranges poleward or to higher altitudes. However, the direction of range shifts in riverine systems is less clear. Because rivers are dendritic networks, there is only one dispersal route from any given location to another. Thus, range shifts are only possible if branches are connected by suitable habitat, and stream‐dwelling organisms can disperse through these branches. We used Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Unionoida: Margaritiferidae) as a model species to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity because a majority of contemporary populations are panmictic. We combined ecological niche models (ENMs) with population genetic simulations to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of C. monodonta. The ENMs were constructed using bioclimatic and landscape data to project shifts in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We then used forward‐time simulations to project potential changes in genetic diversity and population connectivity based on these range shifts. ENM results under current conditions indicated long stretches of highly suitable habitat in rivers where C. monodonta persists; populations in the upper Mississippi River remain connected by suitable habitat that does not impede gene flow. Future climate scenarios projected northward and headwater‐ward range contraction and drastic declines in habitat suitability for most extant populations throughout the Mississippi River Basin. Simulations indicated that climate change would greatly reduce genetic diversity and connectivity across populations. Results suggest that a single, large population of C. monodonta will become further fragmented into smaller populations, each of which will be isolated and begin to differentiate genetically. Because C. monodonta is a widely distributed species and purely aquatic, our results suggest that persistence and connectivity of stream‐dwelling organisms will be significantly altered in response to future climate change.     

A genetic algorithm for the optimization of the thermoinduction protocol for high-level production of recombinant human-like collagen from Escherichia coli

Production of recombinant human-like collagen (RHLC) by thermoinduction of recombinant Escherichia coli BL 21 during high cell density cultivation was investigated in a 30 L bioreactor. The effects of induction temperature (T), pH, and carbon-to-nitrogen molar ratio of the nutrient medium (C/N) were examined. The optimal thermoinduction protocol for RHLC production was determined by using a model coupling genetic algorithm and artificial neural networks. The optimal operating conditions were as follows: maintenance of induction temperature at 42°C for 3 H and then at 39.4°C until the end, induction pH at 7.03, and C/N at 4.8 (mol/mol). The theoretical maximum concentration of RHLC was 12.5 g/L, whereas the experimental value was 12.1 g/L under the optimal induction conditions.     

The influence of climate change on the distribution of indigenous forest in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Aims (1) To define the physical correlates of indigenous forest in KwaZulu-Natal province and develop a model, based on climatic parameters, to predict the potential distribution of forest subtypes in the province. (2) To explore the impact of palaeoclimatic change on forest distribution, providing an insight into the regional-scale/historical forces shaping the pattern and composition of present-day forest communities. (3) To investigate potential future shifts in forest distribution associated with projected climate change. Location KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. Methods A BIOCLIM-type approach is adopted. Bioclimatic ‘profiles’ for eight different forest subtypes are defined from a series of grid overlays of current forest distribution against nineteen climatic and geographical variables, using ArcInfo GIS grid-based processing. A principal components analysis is performed on a selection of individual forests to identify those variables most significant in distinguishing different forest subtypes. Five models are developed to predict the distribution of forest subtypes from their bioclimatic profiles. Maps of the potential distribution of forest subtypes predicted by these models under current climatic conditions are produced, and model accuracy assessed. One model is applied to two palaeoclimatic scenarios, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (≈18,000 BP ) and the Holocene altithermal (≈7000 BP ), and to projected future climate under a doubling in global atmospheric carbon dioxide. Results Seven variables; altitude, mean annual temperature, annual rainfall range, potential evaporation, annual temperature range, mean annual precipitation and mean winter rainfall, are most important in distinguishing different forest subtypes. Under the most accurate model, the potential present-day distribution of all forest subtypes is more extensive than is actually observed, but is supported by recent historical evidence. During the LGM, Afromontane forest occupied a much reduced and highly fragmented area in the mid-altitude region currently occupied by scarp forest. During the Holocene altithermal, forest expanded in area, with a mixing of Afromontane and Indian Ocean coastal belt forest elements along the present-day scarp forest belt. Under projected climatic conditions, forest shifts in altitude and latitude and occupies an area similar to its current potential and more extensive than its actual current distribution. Main conclusions Biogeographical history and present physical diversity play a major role in the evolution and persistence of the diversity of forest in KwaZulu-Natal. It is important to adopt a long-term and regional perspective to forest ecology, biogeography, conservation and management. The area and altitudinal and latitudinal distribution of forest subtypes show considerable sensitivity to climate change. The isolation of forest by anthropogenic landscape change has limited its radiation potential and ability to track environmental change. Long-term forest preservation requires reserves in climatically stable areas, or spanning altitudinal or latitudinal gradients allowing for forest migration, along with innovative matrix management strategies. Dune, sand, swamp, riverine and lowland forest subtypes are most at risk. Scarp forests are highlighted as former refugia and important for the future conservation of forest biodiversity.     

Safeguarding sloths and anteaters in the future: Priority areas for conservation under climate change

Sloths and anteaters form the monophyletic order Pilosa, which is currently represented by only 16 extant species distributed exclusively in the Neotropics. This present-day low species richness is an inheritance of the Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions, where over 65 Pilosa species known from the fossil record went extinct. The large number of species lost in the recent past suggests that this group is greatly vulnerable to extinction. Here, we propose long-term priority conservation areas for the order Pilosa, considering different future climate change scenarios, biotic stability, and the multiple dimensions of the group's biodiversity, such as species richness, species endemism, and phylogenetic diversity. Projections of species distribution for future scenarios show increased fragmentation and clear habitat loss as the Amazon Forest is replaced by savanna-like habitats. Conservation solutions were highly congruent for the different dimensions of biodiversity, with priority areas emerging mainly in the Atlantic Forest, Amazonian wetlands, highlands of Ecuador, and the Central American isthmus. Expanding the currently protected areas network by 6% with the proposed priority areas, independently of which future climatic scenario is considered, can increase sloths and anteaters' coverage in the future by 12%. As a group of high phylogenetic and ecological importance, future conservation planning should deliberately aim to protect areas favorable to Pilosa, especially given the current scenario of environmental dismantling and neglect of critical Neotropical biomes.