Complex seasonal patterns of primary producers at the land-sea interface

Seasonal fluctuations of plant biomass and photosynthesis are key features of the Earth system because they drive variability of atmospheric CO₂, water and nutrient cycling, and food supply to consumers. There is no inventory of phytoplankton seasonal cycles in nearshore coastal ecosystems where forcings from ocean, land and atmosphere intersect. We compiled time series of phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a) from 114 estuaries, lagoons, inland seas, bays and shallow coastal waters around the world, and searched for seasonal patterns as common timing and amplitude of monthly variability. The data revealed a broad continuum of seasonal patterns, with large variability across and within ecosystems. This contrasts with annual cycles of terrestrial and oceanic primary producers for which seasonal fluctuations are recurrent and synchronous over large geographic regions. This finding bears on two fundamental ecological questions: (1) how do estuarine and coastal consumers adapt to an irregular and unpredictable food supply, and (2) how can we extract signals of climate change from phytoplankton observations in coastal ecosystems where local‐scale processes can mask responses to changing climate?     

The role of niche measures in explaining the abundance–distribution relationship in tropical lotic chironomids

In situ measurements of both community metabolism (primary production and respiration) and PAM fluorometry were conducted during emersion on intertidal sediments in the Mont Saint-Michel Bay, in areas where oysters and mussels were cultivated. Results highlighted a low benthic metabolism compared to other intertidal areas previously investigated with the same methods. Comparisons between gross community primary production and relative electron transport rates confirmed this statement. More specifically, primary productivity remained very low all over the year, whereas the associated microalgal biomass was estimated to be high. We suggest that the microphytobenthic community studied was characterized by a self-limitation of its primary productivity by its own biomass, as previously shown in Marennes-Oléron Bay for example. The almost permanent high biomass would represent a limiting factor for micromigration processes within the first millimetres of the sediment. This could be explained by very low resuspension processes occurring in the western part of the bay, enhanced by the occurrence of numerous aquaculture structures that could decrease tidal currents in the benthic boundary layer. Handling editor: N. Desroy     

The meagre future of benthic fauna in a coastal sea—Benthic responses to recovery from eutrophication in a changing climate

Nutrient loading and climate change affect coastal ecosystems worldwide. Unravelling the combined effects of these pressures on benthic macrofauna is essential for understanding the future functioning of coastal ecosystems, as it is an important component linking the benthic and pelagic realms. In this study, we extended an existing model of benthic macrofauna coupled with a physical–biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea to study the combined effects of changing nutrient loads and climate on biomass and metabolism of benthic macrofauna historically and in scenarios for the future. Based on a statistical comparison with a large validation dataset of measured biomasses, the model showed good or reasonable performance across the different basins and depth strata in the model area. In scenarios with decreasing nutrient loads according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan but also with continued recent loads (mean loads 2012–2014), overall macrofaunal biomass and carbon processing were projected to decrease significantly by the end of the century despite improved oxygen conditions at the seafloor. Climate change led to intensified pelagic recycling of primary production and reduced export of particulate organic carbon to the seafloor with negative effects on macrofaunal biomass. In the high nutrient load scenario, representing the highest recorded historical loads, climate change counteracted the effects of increased productivity leading to a hyperbolic response: biomass and carbon processing increased up to mid‐21st century but then decreased, giving almost no net change by the end of the 21st century compared to present. The study shows that benthic responses to environmental change are nonlinear and partly decoupled from pelagic responses and indicates that benthic–pelagic coupling might be weaker in a warmer and less eutrophic sea.     

The effect of temperature and algal biomass on bacterial production and specific growth rate in freshwater and marine habitats

We analyzed heterotrophic, pelagic bacterial production and specific growth rate data from 57 studies conducted in fresh, marine and estuarine/coastal waters. Strong positive relationships were identified between 1) bacterial production and bacterial abundance and 2) bacterial production and algal biomass. The relationship between bacterial production and bacterial abundance was improved by also considering water temperature. The analysis of covariance model revealed consistent differences between fresh, marine and estuarine/coastal waters, with production consistently high in estuarine/coastal environments. The log-linear regression coefficient of abundance was not significantly different from 1.00, and this linear relationship permitted the use of specific growth rate (SGR in day⁻¹) as a dependent variable. A strong relationship was identified between specific growth rate and temperature. This relationship differed slightly across the three habitats. A substantial portion of the residual variation from this relationship was accounted for by algal biomass, including the difference between marine and estuarine/coastal habitats. A small but significant difference between the fresh- and saltwater habitats remained. No significant difference between the chlorophyll effect in different habitats was identified. The model of SGR against temperature and chlorophyll was much weaker for freshwater than for marine environments. For a small subset of the data set, mean cell volume accounted for some of the residual variation in SGR. Pronounced seasonality, fluctuations in nutrient quality, and variation of the grazing environment may contribute to the unexplained variation in specific growth.     

Characterizing the role benthos plays in large coastal seas and estuaries: A modular approach

Ecologists studying coastal and estuarine benthic communities have long taken a macroecological view, by relating benthic community patterns to environmental factors across several spatial scales. Although many general ecological patterns have been established, often a significant amount of the spatial and temporal variation in soft-sediment communities within and among systems remains unexplained. Here we propose a framework that may aid in unraveling the complex influence of environmental factors associated with the different components of coastal systems (i.e. the terrestrial and benthic landscapes, and the hydrological seascape) on benthic communities, and use this information to assess the role played by benthos in coastal ecosystems. A primary component of the approach is the recognition of system modules (e.g. marshes, dendritic systems, tidal rivers, enclosed basins, open bays, lagoons). The modules may differentially interact with key forcing functions (e.g. temperature, salinity, currents) that influence system processes and in turn benthic responses and functions. Modules may also constrain benthic characteristics and related processes within certain ecological boundaries and help explain their overall spatio-temporal variation. We present an example of how benthic community characteristics are related to the modular structure of 14 coastal seas and estuaries, and show that benthic functional group composition is significantly related to the modular structure of these systems. We also propose a framework for exploring the role of benthic communities in coastal systems using this modular approach and offer predictions of how benthic communities may vary depending on the modular composition and characteristics of a coastal system.     

The effects of prolonged emersion and submersion by tidal manipulation on marine macrobenthos

Effects of tidal manipulation, resulting in prolonged periods of emersion and submersion or in protracted tidal cycles, on estuarine benthic animals are reviewed.Prolonged submersion periods did not show effects on mortality of most benthic animals tested, with the exception of the crumb-of-bread sponge Halichondrea panicea, which, at low water-flow rates, was covered with a layer of bacteria and subsequently died.Protracted low-water periods of 18 hours during several weeks hardly caused any mortality. However, protracted low-water periods of 30 hours during some weeks or emersion during several days caused a strong increase in mortality, depending on: the duration of emersion, temperature, condition of the animals, species and age. At temperatures below –1 °C and above 24 °C mortality was generally high. Animals with a low glycogen content were more sensitive to emersion than those with a high content. Species with a shell and those that are relatively big were less sensitive than those without a shell or of small size.The reproductive cycle of benthic animals could be delayed or accelerated by both emersion and submersion.     

Changes in Ecosystem Function Across Sedimentary Gradients in Estuaries

The input of terrestrial silt and clay (hereafter mud) into coastal environments can alter sediment grain size distribution affecting the structure and functioning of benthic communities. The relationship between sediment mud content and macrofaunal community structure has been well documented, but not the effects on ecosystem function. In 143 plots from the mid-intertidal sites in 9 estuaries, we measured sediment properties, macrofaunal community composition and fluxes of O₂ and NH₄ ⁺ across the sediment–water interface to derive process-based measures of ecosystem function across the sand–mud gradient. We observed reductions in measures of macrofaunal diversity and decreases in the maximum density of key bioturbating bivalves (Austrovenus stutchburyi and Macomona liliana) with increased mud content. Concurrently, the maximum rates of sediment oxygen consumption (SOC), NH₄ ⁺ efflux (NH₄ ⁺) and biomass standardized gross primary production (GPP_Chl-a ) also decreased with increasing mud content. Environmental predictors explained 34–39% (P = 0.005–0.01) of the total variation in ecosystem function in distance-based linear models. After partitioning out the effect of mud, A. stutchburyi abundance was positively correlated and explained 25 and 23% (P = 0.0001) of the variation of SOC and NH₄ ⁺, respectively. Also, mud content (negatively correlated) and temperature (positively correlated) explained 26% of variability in GPP_Chl-a (P = 0.0001). Our results highlight the importance of increased mud content and the associated reduction in the abundance of strongly interacting key species on the loss of ecosystem function in intertidal sand flats.     

近30年中国陆地生态系统NDVI时空变化特征

气候变化已明显影响到陆地植被的活动,但在不同生态系统间存在差异,研究不同陆地生态系统归一化植被指数(NDVI)的时空变化特征,不仅可揭示各生态系统植被活动对气候变化的响应规律,而且可为我国不同生态区制定应对气候变化的策略和生态文明建设提供科学依据。基于1982—2012年GIMMS NDVI3g和中国陆地生态系统类型数据,利用一元线性回归、集合经验模态分解和相关分析等方法,研究了近30年中国各陆地生态系统NDVI的时空变化特征,分析了其与气候事件的关系。结果表明,近30年中国植被活动显著上升,年平均归一化植被指数(ANDVI)的上升幅度为0.0029/10a(P0.05),年最大归一化植被指数(MNDVI)的上升幅度为0.0076/10a(P0.01);植被活动显著增强的区域主要是分布在东部季风区的农田和森林生态系统,显著下降的区域主要是分布于西北的荒漠生态系统和东北的森林生态系统;尽管ANDVI和MNDVI线性趋势的显著性有所差异,但农田、森林、草地和水体与湿地生态系统的NDVI总体呈非稳定的上升趋势,上升过程中伴随着较大波动,荒漠生态系统的NDVI呈下降趋势,植被退化显著;与线性趋势不同,各生态系统植被活动的残差趋势包含"上升—下降"两个阶段,并相继于20世纪90年代到21世纪初发生转折;上述5类生态系统的植被活动存在不同尺度的周期特征,年际周期波动特征(1.9—7.6a)比较显著,而年代际周期(10.7a和22.2a)的显著性相对较差;各生态系统的空间异质性在趋强过程中存在2.1—7.1a的年际周期节律;海洋与大气环流的短周期脉动与各生态系统植被活动的周期性节律有着明显关联,ENSO事件和太阳活动是推动植被活动周期性振荡的重要因素。     

Coupling between Marine Plankton and Freshwater Flow in the Plumes off a Small Estuary

Freshwater discharge from rivers is a powerful forcing agent in coastal ecosystems. It not only generates strong ecological effects in estuaries, but also drives the dynamics of nearshore marine waters where prominent river plumes form biogeochemical hot spots in coastal seas worldwide. Large plumes from major rivers exert important controls on pelagic processes. The majority of estuaries are smaller, however, and the importance of the smaller plumes they generate is unknown. We measured the degree of coupling between freshwater flow and inshore zooplankton in such a plume from a subtropical estuary on the east coast of Australia. Flow regimes encompassed long periods of low freshwater input, punctuated by pulsed freshets that initiated the formation of buoyant, lower‐salinity plumes in the nearshore marine zone. Plumes stimulated phytoplankton biomass in the receiving waters, and ultimately changes in zooplankton assemblages. Zooplankton responded strongly to river discharge: (1) in the absence of substantial freshwater flows and plumes, zooplankton was broadly similar in density and biomass across the estuarine‐marine gradient; (2) freshets that generated significant plumes strongly modified hydrological conditions and lowered zooplankton in the estuarine and nearshore waters, and (3) after the initial freshet, zooplankton in the residual plume was at a higher density in nearshore than shelf waters. We demonstrate that coupling between riverine and coastal pelagic systems operates in small plumes, but that there is substantial temporal variance linked to fluctuations in freshwater delivery. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Seasonality in macroinvertebrate community composition across a neglected ecological boundary, the freshwater-estuarine transition zone

The boundary between freshwater and estuarine ecosystems at the extreme head of estuaries has received little attention from benthic ecologists. This short communication addresses this research caveat, presenting preliminary data on the spatial and temporal (seasonal) variation in the composition of benthic macroinvertebrate communities across the transition zone at the head of a small British estuary. Cluster analysis and multidimensional scaling ordination demonstrated that a distinct community occurred at a point just preceding the recognised transition between fresh and brackish waters (salinity <0.2PSU). This transition community contained a mixture of freshwater and estuarine taxa and, despite seasonal migrations at the head of the estuary, community structure remained significantly distinct from that at adjacent sites throughout the year. These preliminary data suggest that the community dynamics across the transition zone show complex patterns and may offer an important research opportunity in aquatic ecology.     

Mangrove resilience to climate extreme events in a Colombian Caribbean Island

Extreme events affect coastal vegetation in several ways. They cause massive tree defoliations and mortality that carry changes in vegetation structure and floristic composition. In order to assess these changes in dry tropical forests, coastal vegetation and mangroves in El Rosario archipelago, and their relationship with extreme events between 2002 and 2014, Quickbird and Worldview Satellite images with uneven periodicity were analyzed and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was calculated for these vegetation covers. Time series analysis was performed to oceanographic and climate variables such as maximum wind velocity, daily precipitation, significant wave height, peak wave period and maximum and minimum air temperatures. The first two axes of a redundancy analysis explained 65% of data variance (p value ≤ 0.05) and showed that the decrease of the NDVI and extension of beach vegetation were related to increases in wind frequency and intensity. However, mangrove vegetation was benefited by the increase in the frequency of short drought events, although their NDVI decreased when these drought events became longer. Drought events were related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) anomalies that had the strongest effects on coastal vegetation and dry forest, as shown by the minimum values of NDVI recorded in 2010. Mangrove vegetation was more resilient to such droughts and strong winds than coastal and dry forest vegetation due to their location along bays or surrounding internal lagoons.     

Allochthonous Organic Matter Supports Benthic but Not Pelagic Food Webs in Shallow Coastal Ecosystems

Rivers transport large amounts of allochthonous organic matter (OM) to the ocean every year, but there are still fundamental gaps in how allochthonous OM is processed in the marine environment. Here, we estimated the relative contribution of allochthonous OM (allochthony) to the biomass of benthic and pelagic consumers in a shallow coastal ecosystem in the northern Baltic Sea. We used deuterium as a tracer of allochthony and assessed both temporal variation (monthly from May to August) and spatial variation (within and outside river plume). We found variability in allochthony in space and time and across species, with overall higher values for zoobenthos (26.2 ± 20.9%) than for zooplankton (0.8 ± 0.3%). Zooplankton allochthony was highest in May and very low during the other months, likely as a result of high inputs of allochthonous OM during the spring flood that fueled the pelagic food chain for a short period. In contrast, zoobenthos allochthony was only lower in June and remained high during the other months. Allochthony of zoobenthos was generally higher close to the river mouth than outside of the river plume, whereas it did not vary spatially for zooplankton. Last, zoobenthos allochthony was higher in deeper than in shallower areas, indicating that allochthonous OM might be more important when autochthonous resources are limited. Our results suggest that climate change predictions of increasing inputs of allochthonous OM to coastal ecosystems may affect basal energy sources supporting coastal food webs.     

Multiple stressors,nonlinear effects and the implications of climate change impacts on marine coastal ecosystems

Global climate change will undoubtedly be a pressure on coastal marine ecosystems, affecting not only species distributions and physiology but also ecosystem functioning. In the coastal zone, the environmental variables that may drive ecological responses to climate change include temperature, wave energy, upwelling events and freshwater inputs, and all act and interact at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To date, we have a poor understanding of how climate‐related environmental changes may affect coastal marine ecosystems or which environmental variables are likely to produce priority effects. Here we use time series data (17 years) of coastal benthic macrofauna to investigate responses to a range of climate‐influenced variables including sea‐surface temperature, southern oscillation indices (SOI, Z4), wind‐wave exposure, freshwater inputs and rainfall. We investigate responses from the abundances of individual species to abundances of functional traits and test whether species that are near the edge of their tolerance to another stressor (in this case sedimentation) may exhibit stronger responses. The responses we observed were all nonlinear and some exhibited thresholds. While temperature was most frequently an important predictor, wave exposure and ENSO‐related variables were also frequently important and most ecological variables responded to interactions between environmental variables. There were also indications that species sensitive to another stressor responded more strongly to weaker climate‐related environmental change at the stressed site than the unstressed site. The observed interactions between climate variables, effects on key species or functional traits, and synergistic effects of additional anthropogenic stressors have important implications for understanding and predicting the ecological consequences of climate change to coastal ecosystems.     

近20年藏北地区AVHRR NDVI与气候因子的关系

利用藏北那曲地区1981~2001年NOAA/AVHRR的旬合成NDVI资料和6个站的逐日气象资料,分析了(归一化指数NDVI)的年内和年际变化规律以及NDVI与8个气候要素的相关关系,主要结论:影响NDVI年变化最显著的气候因子是温度,其中水汽压与NDVI的相关程度明显大于降水量;日照时数与NDVI呈负相关;NDVI与日照时数的滞后时间约0~10d,与风速没有滞后现象,与潜在蒸散、温度、水汽压和降水约20~40d;影响NDVI年际变化最显著的气候因子是潜在蒸散量。     

Contribution of benthic microalgae to the temporal variation in phytoplankton assemblages in a macrotidal system

Suspended marine benthic microalgae in the water column reflect the close relationship between the benthic and pelagic components of coastal ecosystems. In this study, a 12‐year phytoplankton time‐series was used to investigate the contribution of benthic microalgae to the pelagic system at a site along the French‐Atlantic coast. Furthermore, all taxa identified were allocated into different growth forms in order to study their seasonal patterns. The highest contribution of benthic microalgae was observed during the winter period, reaching up to 60% of the carbon biomass in the water column. The haptobenthic growth form showed the highest contribution in terms of biomass, dominant in the fall‐winter period when the turbidity and the river flow were high. The epipelic growth form did not follow any seasonal pattern. The epiphytic diatom Licmophora was most commonly found during summer. As benthic microalgae were found in the water column throughout the year, the temporal variation detected in the structure of pelagic assemblages in a macrotidal ecosystem was partly derived from the differentiated contribution of several benthic growth forms.     

127 Climate Variability and Phytoplankton Production in PNW Coast Estuaries

The west coast of North America receives strong forcing from climate modes such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Estuaries are poised at a sensitive interface because estuarine biota and habitat will be affected by variability in properties and processes associated with the ocean, the watershed, and the local weather. Observations from the Washington coast and Willapa Bay illustrate these three arenas of influence. Variation in ocean upwelling and ocean thermocline depth associated with the 1997–98 El Niño versus the 1999 La Niña affected temperature and nutrient availability in Willapa Bay. Variation in river flow associated with the 2000–01 drought affected estuarine circulation and residence time. And, variation in prevailing wind direction and/or cloudiness was highly correlated with phytoplankton biomass. This situation is responsible for the complexity of understanding climate impacts on estuarine systems. In order to help evaluate which mechanisms, remote oceanic processes or local watershed/estuarine characteristics, most affected Willapa Bay's phytoplankton production, several phytoplankton species were used as indicators of water mass origin and compared with primary productivity data to assess whether phytoplankton blooms were dominated by endemic or imported species. Our analysis resolved that the highest primary production (and the appearance of Pseudo-nitzschia spp.) was associated with oceanic intrusions of phytoplankton biomass into Willapa Bay. This result underscores the dominant role that variation in ocean and climate play in controlling Pacific Northwest estuarine production. However, while the largest blooms were oceanic in origin, numerous medium-sized production events were from either oceanic or estuarine sources, indicating a complex picture.     

Microphytobenthic Primary Production and Sedimentary Carbohydrates Along Salinity Gradients in the Lagoons of Grado and Marano (Northern Adriatic Sea)

Primary production of the microphytobenthic community and carbohydrates concentrations were studied in the lagoonal system of Grado and Marano, located in the Northern Adriatic coast. Sediment samples were collected along a salinity gradient. Abundance and species composition of the microphytobenthic communities were analysed and the benthic microalgal biomass was estimated as Chlorophyll a (Chl a). Primary production of benthic diatoms was estimated using ¹⁴C-tracer. Extracellular carbohydrates were extracted from the sediment and separated in two operationally defined fractions (colloidal and EDTA-extractable). Salinity was higher in the Grado lagoon, where the benthic microalgal community was mainly composed of marine diatoms. In the Marano lagoon, which has a lower salinity, freshwater species were also found. In both lagoons, photosynthetic efficiency showed an inverse relationship with salinity and a direct relationship with the main biological variables. Photosynthetic activity was directly related to Chl a and abundance of benthic microalgae, suggesting that in the benthic system microalgal community is responsible for primary production. Overall, salinity was also influent on the microphytobenthic primary production, which was greater in the more saline Grado lagoon.     

Consequences of Increasing Hypoxic Disturbance on Benthic Communities and Ecosystem Functioning

Disturbance-mediated species loss has prompted research considering how ecosystem functions are changed when biota is impaired. However, there is still limited empirical evidence from natural environments evaluating the direct and indirect (i.e. via biota) effects of disturbance on ecosystem functioning. Oxygen deficiency is a widespread threat to coastal and estuarine communities. While the negative impacts of hypoxia on benthic communities are well known, few studies have assessed in situ how benthic communities subjected to different degrees of hypoxic stress alter their contribution to ecosystem functioning. We studied changes in sediment ecosystem function (i.e. oxygen and nutrient fluxes across the sediment water-interface) by artificially inducing hypoxia of different durations (0, 3, 7 and 48 days) in a subtidal sandy habitat. Benthic chamber incubations were used for measuring responses in sediment oxygen and nutrient fluxes. Changes in benthic species richness, structure and traits were quantified, while stress-induced behavioral changes were documented by observing bivalve reburial rates. The initial change in faunal behavior was followed by non-linear degradation in benthic parameters (abundance, biomass, bioturbation potential), gradually impairing the structural and functional composition of the benthic community. In terms of ecosystem function, the increasing duration of hypoxia altered sediment oxygen consumption and enhanced sediment effluxes of NH₄ ⁺ and dissolved Si. Although effluxes of PO₄ ³⁻ were not altered significantly, changes were observed in sediment PO₄ ³⁻ sorption capability. The duration of hypoxia (i.e. number of days of stress) explained a minor part of the changes in ecosystem function. Instead, the benthic community and disturbance-driven changes within the benthos explained a larger proportion of the variability in sediment oxygen- and nutrient fluxes. Our results emphasize that the level of stress to the benthic habitat matters, and that the link between biodiversity and ecosystem function is likely to be affected by a range of factors in complex, natural environments.     

Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change

Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982–2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17–36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1–2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO₂ sequestration capacity.     

Climatically driven fluctuations in Southern Ocean ecosystems

Determining how climate fluctuations affect ocean ecosystems requires an understanding of how biological and physical processes interact across a wide range of scales. Here we examine the role of physical and biological processes in generating fluctuations in the ecosystem around South Georgia in the South Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. Anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean have previously been shown to be generated through atmospheric teleconnections with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related processes. These SST anomalies are propagated via the Antarctic Circumpolar Current into the South Atlantic (on time scales of more than 1 year), where ENSO and Southern Annular Mode-related atmospheric processes have a direct influence on short (less than six months) time scales. We find that across the South Atlantic sector, these changes in SST, and related fluctuations in winter sea ice extent, affect the recruitment and dispersal of Antarctic krill. This oceanographically driven variation in krill population dynamics and abundance in turn affects the breeding success of seabird and marine mammal predators that depend on krill as food. Such propagating anomalies, mediated through physical and trophic interactions, are likely to be an important component of variation in ocean ecosystems and affect responses to longer term change. Population models derived on the basis of these oceanic fluctuations indicate that plausible rates of regional warming of 1^oC over the next 100 years could lead to more than a 95% reduction in the biomass and abundance of krill across the Scotia Sea by the end of the century.