陆地植被水碳通量模型模拟与数据同化研究进展

精确估算水碳通量对陆地水碳循环研究意义重大,同时也极具挑战性。目前的估算精度有待进一步提高。传统的模型模拟和站点观测两种估算方法各有优势和不足,二者需结合进行研究。数据同化将观测融合到基于物理规律的模型中,尽可能得到模型状态变量和参数的最优估计,为模型和观测的结合提供了一条有效的途径。本文追踪陆地植被水碳通量过程模型与多源观测信息数据同化的研究进展;从植被水碳通量过程模型、数据同化算法、水碳通量模型数据同化3方面梳理了国内外相关研究进展,总结了研究中可能存在的问题:多源观测数据协同不足、同化策略相对简单、同化模型缺乏融合、同化尺度有待扩展;并从同化策略、模型选择、数据扩展、尺度效应、科学计算5个方面对今后的发展方向和趋势进行了分析和展望,以期为该领域研究者提供较全面的背景资料和信息,同时引发更多学者的关注。     

基于数据同化的哈佛森林地区水、碳通量模拟

模型模拟和站点观测是陆地生态系统水、碳循环研究最主要的两种手段,但各有优势和不足,若二者相互结合,则能更准确地反映生态系统水、碳通量的动态变化.数据同化为模型与观测结合提供了一条有效的途径.本文采用哈佛森林环境监测站相关数据,利用集合卡曼滤波同化算法,将实测叶面积指数(LAI)和遥感LAI同化进入Biome BGC模型中,对该地区水、碳通量进行模拟.结果表明：与未同化模拟相比,将1998、1999和2006年实测LAI数据同化后,模型模拟碳通量(NEE)与通量观测NEE的决定系数(R²)平均提升8.4%;蒸散发(ET)的R²平均提升10.6%;NEE的绝对误差和(SAE)和均方根误差(RMSE)平均下降17.7%和21.2%,ET的SAE和RMSE平均下降26.8%和28.3%.将2000-2004年MODIS LAI 产品与模型同化后,NEE、ET模拟值与观测值间的R²分别提升7.8%和4.7%;NEE的SAE和 RMSE分别下降21.9%和26.3%,ET的SAE和 RMSE分别下降24.5%和25.5%.无论实测LAI还是遥感观测LAI,同化进入模型都能不同程度地提高水碳通量的模拟精度.     

Spatial structure of the abiotic environment and its association with sapling community structure and dynamics in a cloud forest

Analyzing the relationship between the spatial structures of environmental variables and of the associated seedling and sapling communities is crucial to understanding the regeneration processes in forest communities. The degree of spatial structuring (i.e., spatial autocorrelation) of environmental and sapling community variables in the cloud forest of Teipan, S Mexico, were analyzed at a 1-ha scale using geostatistical analysis; after fitting semivariogram models for each set of variables, the association between the two sets was examined through cross-variograms. Kriging maps of the sapling community variables (density, cover, species richness, and mortality and recruitment rates) were obtained through conditional simulation method. Canopy openness, total solar radiation, litter depth, soil temperature and soil moisture were spatially structured, as were sapling density, species richness and sapling mortality rate. Mean range in semivariograms for environmental and sapling community variables were 13.14 ± 3.67 and 12.68 ± 5.71 m (±SE), respectively. The spatial structure of litter depth was negatively associated with the spatial structures of sapling density, species richness, and sapling community cover; in turn, the spatial structure of soil moisture was positively associated with the spatial structure of recruitment rate. These associations of the spatial structures of abiotic and sapling community variables suggest that the regeneration processes in this cloud forest is driven by the existence of different microsites, largely characterized by litter depth variations, across which saplings of tree species encounter a range of opportunities for successful establishment and survival.     

地理统计学表达的麦二叉蚜及蚜茧蜂空间格局特征

应用地理统计学的原理和方法研究了不同时期麦二叉蚜及蚜茧峰种群的空间结构的空间相关性。结果表明,不同时期麦二叉蚜种群的半变异函数曲线皆为球型,其空间格局为聚集型,变程在21-61cm之间;蚜茧蜂种群的拟合半变民间函数曲线也表现为球型,呈聚集空间格局,空间变程在36-55cm之间,并与麦二叉蚜种群在数量和空间上有较强的追随关系,说明蚜茧蜂种群是麦二叉蚜种群的优势种天敌。     

A dynamic global vegetation model for use with climate models: concepts and description of simulated vegetation dynamics

Changes in vegetation structure and biogeography due to climate change feedback to alter climate by changing fluxes of energy, moisture, and momentum between land and atmosphere. While the current class of land process models used with climate models parameterizes these fluxes in detail, these models prescribe surface vegetation and leaf area from data sets. In this paper, we describe an approach in which ecological concepts from a global vegetation dynamics model are added to the land component of a climate model to grow plants interactively. The vegetation dynamics model is the Lund–Potsdam–Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model. The land model is the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Land Surface Model (LSM). Vegetation is defined in terms of plant functional types. Each plant functional type is represented by an individual plant with the average biomass, crown area, height, and stem diameter (trees only) of its population, by the number of individuals in the population, and by the fractional cover in the grid cell. Three time‐scales (minutes, days, and years) govern the processes. Energy fluxes, the hydrologic cycle, and carbon assimilation, core processes in LSM, occur at a 20 min time step. Instantaneous net assimilated carbon is accumulated annually to update vegetation once a year. This is carried out with the addition of establishment, resource competition, growth, mortality, and fire parameterizations from LPJ. The leaf area index is updated daily based on prevailing environmental conditions, but the maximum value depends on the annual vegetation dynamics. The coupling approach is successful. The model simulates global biogeography, net primary production, and dynamics of tundra, boreal forest, northern hardwood forest, tropical rainforest, and savanna ecosystems, which are consistent with observations. This suggests that the model can be used with a climate model to study biogeophysical feedbacks in the climate system related to vegetation dynamics.     

塔里木盆地北缘盐土有机碳含量的贝叶斯地统计预测

准确预测土壤有机碳的空间分布,对于土壤资源开发和保护、应对气候变化和生态系统健康都具有重要意义.本文以塔里木盆地北缘盐土1300 m×1700 m样地为试验区,采集5～10 cm深度土壤样品144个,构建土壤有机碳含量的贝叶斯地统计空间预测模型,并以普通克里格、序惯高斯模拟和逆距离加权方法为对照,评价贝叶斯地统计对土壤有机碳含量的预测性能.结果表明: 研究区土壤有机碳含量处于1.59～9.30 g·kg^-1,平均值为4.36 g·kg^-1,标准偏差为1.62 g·kg^-1;半方差函数符合指数模型,空间结构比参数值为0.57;利用贝叶斯地统计方法,获得了土壤有机碳含量的空间分布图以及评价预测不确定性的预测方差、上95%分位数、下95%分位数分布图;与普通克里格、序惯高斯模拟和逆距离加权方法相比,贝叶斯地统计方法具有更高的土壤有机碳含量空间预测精度,显示出该方法对土壤有机碳含量预测的优越性.     

基于地统计分析西印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼围网渔获量的空间异质性

西印度洋公海海域是世界上围网黄鳍金枪鱼渔业的主要作业海域之一,根据印度洋金枪鱼委员会1999—2004年的1°×1°的各月黄鳍金枪鱼围网渔获量统计数据,采用地统计方法探索该海域黄鳍金枪鱼渔获量的空间异质性特征及其相关生态动力过程。进行了如下分析:(1)利用GIS制图观察渔获量的时空分布特征,发现其空间格局的变异受到的季节变化和年际变化共同影响,且前者明显强于后者。(2)采用地统计方法计算各月渔获量的空间异质性参数,并按照年际和季节情况分别进行了统计分析,发现渔获量的地统计参数值和变异函数模型有明显的季节和年际差异;渔获量的空间相关距离(变程)平均在1000nm左右,冬季要小于夏季;渔获量的空间变异函数模型主要为相关距离较大且空间依赖性较弱的指数模型;渔获量的空间结构方差比例(平均为65.82%)远大于随机性方差比例(平均为34.18%);渔获量在1°×1°尺度下具有明显的空间自相关性。(3)对地统计参数值和渔获量的相关关系研究,并探讨季节变化下渔获量的空间异质性特征与相关生态动力过程关系,发现各月渔获量随着空间总变异(基台值)增加而增加,两者存在强相关性;各月渔获量和南北和西北-东南向分维数值有一定相关性,意味着海洋动力过程在南北和西北—东南向过程越强,渔获量越低。西印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼围网渔获量的空间变异原因在于季风气候和ENSO循环过程引起的海洋流场、营养盐和温跃层等变化外在因素,以及围网捕捞方式和鱼类的行为方式的内在因素共同导致的。     

The feeding biology of Hydrobia ventrosa (Montagu). I. The assimilation of different components of the food

The assimilation efficiencies for 7 species of diatoms, two of blue-green algae, and one bacterium have been measured in the deposit-feeding prosobranch Hydrobia ventrosa (Montagu). Two methods have been used, a chemical and a radiotracer one.The results of the first method were difficult to evaluate due to the fact that the time taken to clear the gut is ill-defined. The second method gave more consistent results.All diatoms are assimilated efficiently (60–71 %) as is the bacterium (about 75 %). The blue-green algae are less efficiently utilized; an Oscillatoria sp. was assimilated with an efficiency of about 50 % whereas a Chroococcus sp. was only assimilated with an efficiency of 8 %. It is concluded that resource partitioning based on differential utilization of micro-organisms cannot play an important rôle in the co-existence of Hydrobia ventrosa with other deposit-feeders.     

Metabolic effects of microwave radiation and convection heating on human mononuclear leukocytes

The effects of microwave radiation (2450 MHz, continuous wave, mean specific absorption rate of 103.5 +/- 4.2 W/kg) and convection heating on the nonphosphorylating oxidative metabolism of human peripheral mononuclear leukocytes (96% lymphocytes, 4% monocytes) at 37 degrees C were investigated. Metabolic activity, determined by chemiluminescence (CL) of cells challenged with luminol (5-amino-2,3-dihydro-1,4-phthalazinedione) linked to bovine serum albumin, was detected with a brightness photometer. A significant stimulation after microwave exposure (p less than 0.005) over total CL of matched 37 degrees C incubator controls was observed. A similar degree of stimulation compared to incubator controls was also detected after sham treatment. There was no significant difference between changes in total CL or stimulation indices of the microwave and sham exposed groups. It appears that exposure to microwave radiation, under normothermic (37 +/- 0.03 degrees C) conditions, has no effect on the oxidative metabolic activity of human peripheral mononuclear leukocytes. However, the significant differences between microwave or sham exposed cells and their respective incubator controls occurred because the temperature of the incubator controls did not exceed 35.9 degrees C and this temperature required 39 minutes to reach from 22 degrees C. Slow heating of incubator controls must be accounted for in thermal and radiofrequency radiation studies in vitro.     

Assimilation of polysaccharides and glucose by major bacterial groups in the Delaware Estuary

The contribution of major bacterial groups to the assimilation of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) and glucose in the Delaware Estuary was assessed using microautoradiography and fluorescence in situ hybridization. Bacterial groups contributed to EPS and glucose assimilation in part according to their distribution in the estuary. Abundance of the phylogenetic groups explained 35% and 55% of the variation in EPS and glucose assimilation, respectively. Actinobacteria contributed 70% to glucose assimilation in freshwater, while Alphaproteobacteria assimilated 60% of this compound in saline water. In contrast, various bacterial groups dominated the assimilation of EPS. Actinobacteria and Betaproteobacteria contributed the most in the freshwater section, whereas Cytophaga-like bacteria and Alpha- and Gammaproteobacteria participated in EPS assimilation in the lower part of the estuary. In addition, we examined the fraction of bacteria in each group that assimilated glucose or EPS. Overall, the fraction of bacteria in all groups that assimilated glucose was higher than the fraction that assimilated EPS (15 to 30% versus 5 to 20%, respectively). We found no correlation between the relative abundance of a group in the estuary and the fraction of bacteria actively assimilating glucose or EPS; the more active groups were often less abundant. Our results imply that the bacterial community in the Delaware Estuary is not controlled solely by "bottom-up" factors such as dissolved organic matter.     

Assimilation of Polysaccharides and Glucose by Major Bacterial Groups in the Delaware Estuary

The contribution of major bacterial groups to the assimilation of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) and glucose in the Delaware Estuary was assessed using microautoradiography and fluorescence in situ hybridization. Bacterial groups contributed to EPS and glucose assimilation in part according to their distribution in the estuary. Abundance of the phylogenetic groups explained 35% and 55% of the variation in EPS and glucose assimilation, respectively. Actinobacteria contributed 70% to glucose assimilation in freshwater, while Alphaproteobacteria assimilated 60% of this compound in saline water. In contrast, various bacterial groups dominated the assimilation of EPS. Actinobacteria and Betaproteobacteria contributed the most in the freshwater section, whereas Cytophaga-like bacteria and Alpha- and Gammaproteobacteria participated in EPS assimilation in the lower part of the estuary. In addition, we examined the fraction of bacteria in each group that assimilated glucose or EPS. Overall, the fraction of bacteria in all groups that assimilated glucose was higher than the fraction that assimilated EPS (15 to 30% versus 5 to 20%, respectively). We found no correlation between the relative abundance of a group in the estuary and the fraction of bacteria actively assimilating glucose or EPS; the more active groups were often less abundant. Our results imply that the bacterial community in the Delaware Estuary is not controlled solely by “bottom-up” factors such as dissolved organic matter.     

基于贝叶斯二项式模型分析棕头鸥种群多度与环境因子间的关系

传统的种群多度调查方法由于默认观察率 p 等于 1,因此极有可能低估种群大小,进而误判种群多度与环境因子间的关系。为了了解禽流感爆发后青海湖棕头鸥种群与环境因子间的关系,为棕头鸥管理提供有效依据,于 2010 年和 2011 年的 4 ～6 月调查了青海湖保护区 23 个观测点的棕头鸥种群数量及环境因子。通过包含观察率的贝叶斯二项式混合模型分析棕头鸥种群多度与环境因子间的关系,采用 DIC 准则进行因子筛选。结果表明: 种群数量亚模型包含取样面积、放牧强度、距公路距离和植被盖度 4 个参数,种群数量随取样面积、距公路距离和植被盖度的增加而增加,随放牧强度的增加而减少; 观察率亚模型包含观察经验和棕头鸥的行为月节律 2 个参数,观察率随观察月的递增而降低,随观察经验的增加而升高,高经验观察者平均每千米观察到 18. 1 只棕头鸥,低经验观察者可以平均观察到 13. 7 只。天气状况不影响观察率,这可能与棕头鸥的觅食栖息地距岸边较近,不影响观察者的观察有关。     

A conceptual model for the development of Phytophthora disease in Quercus robur

Here, a conceptual model is presented for the development of Phytophthora disease in pedunculate oak. The model is presented using the causal loop diagram tool and gives an overview of how various abiotic and biotic factors, such as soil moisture, nutrient availability and mycorrhizal colonization, may affect the reproduction and the infective capacity of soil-borne Phytophthora species, the susceptibility of the host and subsequent disease development. It is suggested that the link between the root damage caused by Phytophthora species and overall tree vitality is in the assimilation and allocation of carbon within the plants. The potential impact of environmental factors on these processes is discussed. The model is presented with reference to scenarios related to variation in soil moisture and nutrient availability. The need for species-specific validation of the model and the implications of the model are discussed.     

祁连山东段高原鼢鼠(Eospalax baileyi)土丘空间分布格局及其与环境因子的空间关联性

高原鼢鼠推土造丘行为对高寒草地生态系统的生产和生态功能有重要影响,研究高原鼢鼠土丘空间分布格局及其与环境因子的关系,可以揭示高原鼢鼠栖息地利用和选择规律,为合理控制鼠害及保护草地生物多样性提供科学依据。于2014年8月在祁连山东段选取面积为140m×100m的高原鼢鼠栖息地,消除景观尺度取样带来的气候、地形和土壤的异质性,利用地统计学方法,分析高原鼢鼠土丘的空间分布格局、并揭示其与环境因子中土壤容重、土壤水分、植物地上、地下生物量、根系营养物质含量(可溶性糖、粗蛋白、粗脂肪)以及各功能群丰富度(禾本科、莎草科、杂类草)的空间关系。半方差函数及普通克里格插值表明,高原鼢鼠土丘存在中等程度的空间变异且呈现聚集分布,各环境因子均存在不同程度的空间异质性。交方差函数分析表明,高原鼢鼠分布虽与各环境因子在多种尺度下表现出复杂的空间关联性(正的或负的),但mantel检验发现土壤容重、莎草科丰富度与高原鼢鼠土丘分布呈现显著的负空间关联性,杂类草丰富度和根系粗脂肪含量与高原鼢鼠土丘分布存在显著正空间关联性。综上所述,高原鼢鼠主要栖息利用在土壤疏松、莎草科丰富度较低、杂类草较多和根系粗脂肪含量较高的地方。     

Simulation of nitrogen assimilation by heterotrophic soil microbial biomass

Assimilation of N by heterotrophic soil microbial biomass is associated with decomposition of organic matter in the soil. The form of N assimilated can be either low molecular weight organic N released from the breakdown of organic matter (direct assimilation), or NH⁺₄ and NO⁻₃ from the soil inorganic N pool, into which mineralized organic N is released (mineralization immobilization turnover). The kinetics of C and N turnover in soil is quantifiable by means of computer simulation models. NCSOIL was constructed to represent the two assimilation schemes. The rate of N assimilation depends on the rate of C assimilation and microbial C/N ratio, thereby rendering it independent of the assimilation scheme. However, if any of the N forms is labeled, a different amount of labeled N assimilation will be simulated by the different schemes. Experimental data on inorganic N and ¹⁵N and on organic ¹⁵N dynamics in soils incubated with ¹⁵N added as NH⁺₄ or organic N were compared with data simulated by different model schemes. Direct assimilation could not account for the amount of ¹⁵N assimilated in any of the experimental treatments. The best fit of the model to experimental data was obtained for the mineralization immobilization turnover scheme when both NH⁺₄ and NO⁻₃ were assimilated, in proportion to their concentration in the soil.     

Evaluating the effects of climate change on tree species abundance and distribution in the Italian peninsula

Question: What is the effect of climate change on tree species abundance and distribution in the Italian peninsula? Location: Italian peninsula. Methods: Regression tree analysis, Random Forest, generalized additive model and geostatistical methods were compared to identify the best model for quantifying the effect of climate change on tree species distribution and abundance. Future potential species distribution, richness, local colonization, local extinction and species turnover were modelled according to two scenarios (A2 and B1) for 2050 and 2080. Results: Robust Random Forest proved to be the best statistical model to predict the potential distribution of tree species abundance. Climate change could lead to a shift in tree species distribution towards higher altitudes and a reduction of forest cover. Pinus sylvestris and Tilia cordata may be considered at risk of local extinction, while the other species could find potential suitable areas at the cost of a rearrangement of forest community composition and increasing competition. Conclusions: Geographical and topographical regional characteristics can have a noticeable influence on the impact of predicted climate change on forest ecosystems within the Mediterranean basin. It would be highly beneficial to create a standardized and harmonized European forest inventory in order to evaluate, at high resolution, the effect of climate change on forest ecosystems, identify regional differences and develop specific adaptive management strategies and plans.     

Increased Light Availability Reduces the Importance of Bacterial Carbon in Headwater Stream Food Webs

Many ecosystems rely on subsidies of carbon and nutrients from surrounding environments. In headwater streams that are heavily shaded by riparian forests, allochthonous inputs from terrestrial systems often comprise a major part of the organic matter budget. Bacteria play a key role in organic matter cycling in streams, but there is limited evidence about how much bacterial carbon is actually assimilated by invertebrate and fish consumers, and how bacterial carbon assimilation varies among streams. We conducted stable isotope tracer additions of ¹³C-acetate, that is assimilated only by bacteria, and ¹⁵N-ammonium, that is assimilated by both bacteria and algae, in two small, shaded streams in the Adirondack region of New York State, USA. Our goal was to determine whether there is an important trophic link between bacteria and macroconsumers, and whether the link changes when the light environment is experimentally altered. In 2009, we evaluated bacterial carbon use in both streams with natural canopy cover using 10-day dual-isotope tracer releases. The canopy was then thinned in one stream to increase light availability and primary production and tracer experiments were repeated in 2010. As part of the tracer experiments, we developed a respiration assay to measure the δ ¹³C content of live bacteria, which provided critical information for determining how much of the carbon assimilated by invertebrate consumers is from bacterial sources. Some invertebrate taxa, including scraper mayflies (Heptagenia spp.) that feed largely on biofilms assimilated over 70% of their carbon from bacterial sources, whereas shredder caddisflies (Pycnopsyche spp.) that feed on decomposing leaves assimilated less than 1% of their carbon from bacteria. Increased light availability led to strong declines in the magnitude of bacterial carbon fluxes to different consumers (varying from ?17 to ?91% decrease across invertebrate taxa), suggesting that bacterial energy assimilation differs not only among consumer taxa but also within the same consumer taxa in streams with different ecological contexts. Our results demonstrate that fluxes of bacterial carbon to higher trophic levels in streams can be substantial, that is over 70% for some taxa, but that invertebrate taxa vary considerably in their reliance on bacterial carbon, and that local variation in carbon sources controls how much bacterial carbon invertebrates use.     

Geostatistical estimation of surface soil carbon stock in Mt. Wakakusa grassland of Japan

Although nation-wide assessments on the grassland soil carbon storage have been conducted in Japan, the uncertainty of the estimation accuracy remains with its local variability. In the present study, using geostatistical approach, we assessed the spatial variability and distribution pattern of organic carbon (OC) and estimated its total stock in the surface soils (0–5 cm) over Mt. Wakakusa grassland (30.2 ha) of Central Japan. The exploratory statistics indicated that the surface soils had 1.88?±?0.28 kg C m^?2 of soil OC density on average (n?=?147) with a moderate variability (CV?=?18.8%), while the geostatistical analysis unveiled that its semivariogram was well fitted by a spherical model (R²?=?0.93, RSS?=?1.15E^?05) and had a strong spatial dependency (nugget–sill ratio?=?0.31). Based on these results, we constructed an interpolated map and estimated total OC stock to 552 Mg C in the surface soil of Mt. Wakakusa grassland.

     

Soil water balance and ecosystem response to climate change

Some essential features of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle and ecosystem response are singled out by confronting empirical observations of the soil water balance of different ecosystems with the results of a stochastic model of soil moisture dynamics. The simplified framework analytically describes how hydroclimatic variability (especially the frequency and amount of rainfall events) concurs with soil and plant characteristics in producing the soil moisture dynamics that in turn impact vegetation conditions. The results of the model extend and help interpret the classical curve of Budyko, which relates evapotranspiration losses to a dryness index, describing the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration, runoff, and deep infiltration. They also provide a general classification of soil water balance of the world ecosystems based on two governing dimensionless groups summarizing the climate, soil, and vegetation conditions. The subsequent analysis of the links among soil moisture dynamics, plant water stress, and carbon assimilation offers an interpretation of recent manipulative field experiments on ecosystem response to shifts in the rainfall regime, showing that plant carbon assimilation crucially depends not only on the total rainfall during the growing season but also on the intermittency and magnitude of the rainfall events.     

Modeling spring habitat requirements of the endangered brown eared pheasant Crossoptilon mantchuricum in the Huanglong Mountains, Shaanxi Province, China

A detailed understanding of the habitat needs of brown eared pheasants (Crossoptilon mantchuricum) is essential for conserving the species. We carried out field surveys in the Huanglong Mountains of Shaanxi Province, China, from March to June in 2007 and 2008. We arrayed a total of 206 grid plots (200 × 200 m) along transects in 2007 and 2008 and quantified a suite of environmental variables for each one. In the optimal logistic regression model, the most important variables for brown eared pheasants were slope degree, tree cover, distance to nearest water, cover and depth of fallen leaves. Hosmer and Leweshow goodness-of-fit tests explained that logistic models for the species were good fits. The model suggested that spring habitat selection of the brown eared pheasant was negatively related to distance to nearest water and slope degree, and positively to cover of trees and cover and depth of fallen leaves. In addition, the observed detected and undetected grids in 2007 did not show significant differences with predictions based on the model. These results showed that the model could well predict the habitat selection of brown eared pheasants. Based on these predictive models, we suggest that habitat management plans incorporating this new information can now focus more effectively on restrictions on the number of tourists entering the nature reserve, prohibition of firewood collection, livestock grazing, and medicinal plant harvesting by local residents in the core areas, protection of mixed forest and sources of the permanent water in the reserve, and use of alternatives to firewood.