What explains landscape patterns of tree mortality caused by bark beetle outbreaks in Greater Yellowstone?

Aim Bark beetle outbreaks have recently affected extensive areas of western North American forests, and factors explaining landscape patterns of tree mortality are poorly understood. The objective of this study was to determine the relative importance of stand structure, topography, soil characteristics, landscape context (the characteristics of the landscape surrounding the focal stand) and beetle pressure (the abundance of local beetle population eruptions around the focal stand a few years before the outbreak) to explain landscape patterns of tree mortality during outbreaks of three species: the mountain pine beetle, which attacks lodgepole pine and whitebark pine; the spruce beetle, which feeds on Engelmann spruce; and the Douglas‐fir beetle, which attacks Douglas‐fir. A second objective was to identify common variables that explain tree mortality among beetle–tree host pairings during outbreaks. Location Greater Yellowstone ecosystem, Wyoming, USA. Methods We used field surveys to quantify stand structure, soil characteristics and topography at the plot level in susceptible stands of each forest type showing different severities of infestation (0–98% mortality; n= 129 plots). We then used forest cover and beetle infestation maps derived from remote sensing to develop landscape context and beetle pressure metrics at different spatial scales. Plot‐level and landscape‐level variables were used to explain outbreak severity. Results Engelmann spruce and Douglas‐fir mortality were best predicted using landscape‐level variables alone. Lodgepole pine mortality was best predicted by both landscape‐level and plot‐level variables. Whitebark pine mortality was best – although poorly – predicted by plot‐level variables. Models including landscape context and beetle pressure were much better at predicting outbreak severity than models that only included plot‐level measures, except for whitebark pine. Main conclusions Landscape‐level variables, particularly beetle pressure, were the most consistent predictors of subsequent outbreak severity within susceptible stands of all four host species. These results may help forest managers identify vulnerable locations during ongoing outbreaks.     

Woodpecker nest survival,density, and a pine beetle outbreak

Mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks in western North American coniferous forests are increasing in size and severity. An understanding of wildlife population responses to pine beetle outbreaks is needed to inform habitat conservation strategies. We monitored 355 nests of 5 woodpecker species during 2 sampling periods, before (2003–2006) and after (2009–2014) the peak of a pine beetle outbreak in dry mixed conifer forest of Montana, USA. Three of 5 woodpecker species represented the beetle-foraging group: American three-toed (Picoides dorsalis), hairy (Dryobates villosus), and downy (D. pubescens) woodpeckers. The other 2 species studied were northern flicker (Colaptes auratus), a foraging and habitat generalist, and red-naped sapsucker (Sphyrapicus nuchalis), a sap forager and bark-gleaning insectivore. We analyzed daily survival rate of nests in relation to pine beetle outbreak (445,000 ha) severity and timing, along with covariates unrelated to the outbreak (temp, nest height, and nest tree diameter). Our results provided stronger evidence for relationships between woodpecker nest survival and the non-outbreak variables than those associated with outbreaks. Our results indicated limited support for nest survival relationships with beetle severity (annual and cumulative pine tree mortality at 0.81-ha and 314-ha scales). Nevertheless, we observed a significant increase in densities of hatched nests for beetle-foraging woodpeckers following the outbreak. Our results suggest that woodpeckers, particularly beetle foragers, respond numerically to pine beetle outbreaks through increased nesting densities more so than functionally via nest survival. © 2019 The Authors. Journal of Wildlife Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

A Decade of Streamwater Nitrogen and Forest Dynamics after a Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak at the Fraser Experimental Forest,Colorado

Forests of western North America are currently experiencing extensive tree mortality from a variety of bark beetle species, and insect outbreaks are projected to increase under warmer, drier climates. Unlike the abrupt biogeochemical changes typical after wildfire and timber harvesting, the outcomes of insect outbreaks are poorly understood. The mountain pine bark beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) began to attack lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) at the Fraser Experimental Forest in 2002 and spread throughout the research area by 2007. We compared streamwater nitrogen (N) from 2003 through 2012 with data from the previous two decades in four watersheds with distinct forest management histories, stand structures, and responses to the beetle outbreak. Watersheds dominated by old-growth had larger trees and lost 85% of overstory pine and 44% of total basal area to bark beetles. In contrast, managed watersheds containing a mixture of second-growth (30–60 year old) and old-growth (250- to 350-year old) had higher density of subcanopy trees, smaller mean tree diameter, and lower bark beetle-induced mortality (~26% of total basal area). Streamwater nitrate concentrations were significantly higher in old-growth watersheds during the outbreak than pre-outbreak levels during snowmelt and base flow seasons. In mixed-age stands, streamwater nitrate concentrations were unaffected by the outbreak. Beetle outbreak elevated inorganic N export 43 and 74% in two old-growth watersheds though the amounts of N released in streamwater were low (0.04 and 0.15 kg N ha^?1) relative to atmospheric inputs (<2% of annual N deposition). Increased height, diameter, and foliar N of measured in residual live trees augmented demand for N, far in excess of the change in N export during the outbreak. Reallocation of soil resources released after pine mortality to overstory and understory vegetation helps explain high nutrient retention in watersheds affected by bark beetle outbreaks.     

Modeling mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) oviposition

Mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), is a significant forest disturbance agent with a widespread distribution in western North America. Population success is influenced by temperatures that drive phenology and ultimately the adult emergence synchrony required to mass attack and kill host trees during outbreaks. In addition to lifestage‐specific developmental rates and thresholds, oviposition timing can be a source of variance in adult emergence synchrony, and is a critical aspect of mountain pine beetle phenology. Adaptation to local climates has resulted in longer generation times in southern compared to northern populations in common gardens, and the role of oviposition rate in these differences is unclear. Oviposition rates and fecundity in a northern population have been described, although data are lacking for southern populations. We assessed southern mountain pine beetle oviposition rates and fecundity in a range of temperatures using a non‐destructive technique that included frequent X‐ray imaging. We found that oviposition rate and fecundity vary independently such that a female with high oviposition rate did not necessarily have high fecundity and vice versa. Observed fecundity within the 30‐day experimental period was lowest at the lowest temperature, although estimated potential fecundity did not differ among temperatures. Females at varying temperatures have the potential to lay similar numbers of eggs, although it will take longer at lower temperatures. Southern mountain pine beetle reared in Pinus strobiformis Engelm. (Pinaceae) had a higher upper threshold for oviposition, a similar lower threshold, and slightly greater potential fecundity compared to a northern population reared in Pinus contorta Douglas. A comparison of modeled oviposition rates between the two populations, which could be influenced by host tree, suggests that differences in oviposition rate do not explain observed differences in total generation time. Our oviposition model will facilitate development of a phenology model for southern mountain pine beetle populations.     

The Influence of Previous Mountain Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) Activity on the 1988 Yellowstone Fires

We examined the historical record of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) activity within Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, for the 25-years period leading up to the 1988 Yellowstone fires (1963–86) to determine how prior beetle activity and the resulting tree mortality affected the spatial pattern of the 1988 Yellowstone fires. To obtain accurate estimates of our model parameters, we used a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to account for the high degree of spatial autocorrelation inherent to forest fires. Our final model included three statistically significant variables: drought, aspect, and sustained mountain pine beetle activity in the period 1972–75. Of the two major mountain pine beetle outbreaks that preceded the 1988 fires, the earlier outbreak (1972–75) was significantly correlated with the burn pattern, whereas the more recent one (1980–83) was not. Although regional drought and high winds were responsible for the large scale of this event, the analysis indicates that mountain pine beetle activity in the mid-1970s increased the odds of burning in 1988 by 11% over unaffected areas. Although relatively small in magnitude, this effect, combined with the effects of aspect and spatial variation in drought, had a dramatic impact on the spatial pattern of burned and unburned areas in 1988.     

Tree response and mountain pine beetle attack preference,reproduction and emergence timing in mixed whitebark and lodgepole pine stands

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Nitrogen Cycling Responses to Mountain Pine Beetle Disturbance in a High Elevation Whitebark Pine Ecosystem

Ecological disturbances can significantly affect biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial ecosystems, but the biogeochemical consequences of the extensive mountain pine beetle outbreak in high elevation whitebark pine (WbP) (Pinus albicaulis) ecosystems of western North America have not been previously investigated. Mountain pine beetle attack has driven widespread WbP mortality, which could drive shifts in both the pools and fluxes of nitrogen (N) within these ecosystems. Because N availability can limit forest regrowth, understanding how beetle-induced mortality affects N cycling in WbP stands may be critical to understanding the trajectory of ecosystem recovery. Thus, we measured above- and belowground N pools and fluxes for trees representing three different times since beetle attack, including unattacked trees. Litterfall N inputs were more than ten times higher under recently attacked trees compared to unattacked trees. Soil inorganic N concentrations also increased following beetle attack, potentially driven by a more than two-fold increase in ammonium (NH₄ ⁺) concentrations in the surface soil organic horizon. However, there were no significant differences in mineral soil inorganic N or soil microbial biomass N concentrations between attacked and unattacked trees, implying that short-term changes in N cycling in response to the initial stages of WbP attack were restricted to the organic horizon. Our results suggest that while mountain pine beetle attack drives a pulse of N from the canopy to the forest floor, changes in litterfall quality and quantity do not have profound effects on soil biogeochemical cycling, at least in the short-term. However, continuous observation of these important ecosystems will be crucial to determining the long-term biogeochemical effects of mountain pine beetle outbreaks.     

Linking increasing drought stress to Scots pine mortality and bark beetle infestations

In the dry Swiss Rhone Valley, Scots pine forests have experienced increased mortality in recent years. It has commonly been assumed that drought events and bark beetles fostered the decline, however, whether bark beetle outbreaks increased in recent years and whether they can be linked to drought stress or increasing temperature has never been studied. In our study, we correlated time series of drought indices from long-term climate stations, 11-year mortality trends from a long-term research plot, and mortality probabilities modeled from tree rings (as an indicator of tree vitality) with documented occurrences of various bark beetle species and a buprestid beetle, using regional Forest Service reports from 1902 to 2003 and advisory cases of the Swiss Forest Protection Service (SFPS) from 1984 to 2005. We compared the historical findings with measured beetle emergence from a 4-year tree felling and breeding chamber experiment. The documented beetle-related pine mortality cases increased dramatically in the 1990s, both in the forest reports and the advisory cases. The incidents of beetle-related pine mortality correlated positively with spring and summer temperature, and with the tree-ring based mortality index, but not with the drought index. The number of advisory cases, on the other hand, correlated slightly with summer drought index and temperature, but very highly with tree-ring-based mortality index. The tree-ring-based mortality index and observed tree mortality increased in years following drought. This was confirmed by the beetle emergences from felled trees. Following dry summers, more than twice as many trees were colonized by beetles than following wet summers. We conclude that increased temperatures in the Swiss Rhone Valley have likely weakened Scots pines and favored phloeophagous beetle population growth. Beetles contributed to the increased pine mortality following summer drought. Among the factors not addressed in this study, changed forest use may have also contributed to increased beetle populations and Scots pine mortality, whereas air pollution seems to be of lesser importance.     

Understory vegetation response to mountain pine beetle disturbance in northern Colorado lodgepole pine forests

Understory plants are an important element of forests, having a considerable influence on ecosystem functioning and canopy-tree development following disturbance. Recent bark beetle outbreaks across western North American forests have caused extensive canopy mortality, creating new growing conditions that provide the opportunity for changes within the intact understory. Over a five-year period following peak mountain pine beetle (MPB) activity across lodgepole pine-dominated forests in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, we measured the changes in plant diversity, cover, and dominance by lifeform and quantified tree regeneration rates. Average species richness and diversity increased, but overall plant cover did not change. Graminoids appeared to benefit the most, increasing in average cover, richness, and relative dominance. The rise in graminoid dominance was largely at the expense of shrubs, which showed little ability to benefit from overstory mortality within the first years following attack. Most plant responses were positively related to the total tree basal area lost since the peak of the outbreak, suggesting that increased resource availability following tree death may benefit understory plants. However, a negative relationship between several understory variables and tree sapling density provides evidence that understory plants compete with saplings for the newly available resources. Tree seedling density nearly doubled over the duration of the study, indicating a strong regeneration pulse. Among species, lodgepole pine displayed the greatest tree seedling establishment. This is one of the first studies to use repeated measurements to describe this often-overlooked component of forest change associated with MPB disturbance.

     

Observations and modeling of aboveground tree carbon stocks and fluxes following a bark beetle outbreak in the western United States

Bark beetle epidemics result in tree mortality across millions of hectares in North America. However, few studies have quantified impacts on carbon (C) cycling. In this study, we quantified the immediate response and subsequent trajectories of stand‐level aboveground tree C stocks and fluxes using field measurements and modeling for a location in central Idaho, USA that experienced an outbreak of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins). We measured tree characteristics in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) plots spanning a range of structure and mortality conditions. We then initialized the forest vegetation simulator, an individual tree‐based model, with these measurements and simulated the response of aboveground production of C fluxes as well as trajectories of C stocks and fluxes in the coming decades. Mountain pine beetles killed up to 52% of the trees within plots, with more larger trees killed. C stocks in lodgepole pine were reduced by 31–83% following the outbreak, and plot‐level C fluxes decreased 28–73%. Modeled C stocks increased nearly continuously following the infestation, recovering to preoutbreak levels in 25 years or less. Simulated aboveground tree C fluxes increased following the immediate postoutbreak decrease, then subsequently declined. Substantial variability of C stocks and fluxes among plots resulted from the number and size of killed and surviving trees. Our study illustrates that bark beetle epidemics alter forest C cycling unlike stand‐replacement wildfires or clear‐cut harvests, due in part to incomplete mortality coupled with the preference by beetles for larger trees. The dependency of postoutbreak C stocks and fluxes on stand structure suggests that C budget models and studies in areas experiencing mountain pine beetle disturbances need to include size distribution of trees for the most accurate results.     

Rapid Increases in Forest Understory Diversity and Productivity following a Mountain Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) Outbreak in Pine Forests

The current unprecedented outbreak of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests of western Canada has resulted in a landscape consisting of a mosaic of forest stands at different stages of mortality. Within forest stands, understory communities are the reservoir of the majority of plant species diversity and influence the composition of future forests in response to disturbance. Although changes to stand composition following beetle outbreaks are well documented, information on immediate responses of forest understory plant communities is limited. The objective of this study was to examine the effects of D. ponderosae-induced tree mortality on initial changes in diversity and productivity of understory plant communities. We established a total of 110 1-m² plots across eleven mature lodgepole pine forests to measure changes in understory diversity and productivity as a function of tree mortality and below ground resource availability across multiple years. Overall, understory community diversity and productivity increased across the gradient of increased tree mortality. Richness of herbaceous perennials increased with tree mortality as well as soil moisture and nutrient levels. In contrast, the diversity of woody perennials did not change across the gradient of tree mortality. Understory vegetation, namely herbaceous perennials, showed an immediate response to improved growing conditions caused by increases in tree mortality. How this increased pulse in understory richness and productivity affects future forest trajectories in a novel system is unknown.     

The role of larch budmoth (Zeiraphera diniana Gn.) on forest succession in a larch (Larix decidua Mill.) and Swiss stone pine (Pinus cembra L.) stand in the Susa Valley (Piedmont, Italy)

In the Alps, larch (Larix decidua Mill.) is severely affected by larch budmoth (Zeiraphera diniana Guénée) (LBM) attacks. The impact of these outbreaks on the Swiss stone pine (Pinus cembra L.) and on the dynamic processes acting in subalpine forest stands are still not well known. Dendroecological methods were used in this study to reconstruct past LBM outbreaks in Susa Valley, Piedmont, Italy. The analysis was carried out on 62 cores from larch and 101 cores from stone pine. The length and severity of each outbreak was quantified for both species and for each tree by means of the programme OUTBREAK. The frequency of the outbreaks was determined using singular spectral analysis and superposed epoch analysis was used to test the significance of the associations between outbreaks and tree-ring growth. In order to verify if trees belonging to different age classes are differently affected by LBM, the reconstructed outbreaks are then classified taking into account the cambial age of the tree at the moment of the outbreak. From 1760 to 1999, 19 outbreaks were recorded in the larch chronologies, while only three outbreaks in the stone pine chronologies. The larch growth is strongly influenced by LBM and the identified outbreaks are equally distributed in all the three age classes. On the stone pine the sporadic occurrence of the identified events made difficult any interpretation of the eventual effect of LBM. Our results lead us to argue that LBM has not played an important role both in determining the stone pine growth rate and in influencing the present observed succession from the stage dominated by larch, to a stage dominated by stone pine or by a mixed stone pine-larch forest.     

Factors influencing bark beetle outbreaks after forest fires on the Iberian Peninsula

Fires are among the most globally important disturbances in forest ecosystems. Forest fires can be followed by bark beetle outbreaks. Therefore, the dynamic interactions between bark beetle outbreaks and fire appear to be of general importance in coniferous forests throughout the world. We tested three hypotheses of how forest fires in pine ecosystems (Pinus pinaster Alton and P. radiata D. Don) in Spain could alter the population dynamics of bark beetles and influence the probability of further disturbance from beetle outbreaks: fire could affect the antiherbivore resin defenses of trees, change their nutritional suitability, or affect top-down controls on herbivore populations. P. radiata defenses decreased immediately after fire, but trees with little crown damage soon recovered with defenses higher than before. Fire either reduced or did not affect nutritional quality of phloem and either reduced or had no effect on the abundance, diversity, and relative biomass of natural enemies. After fire, bark beetle abundance increased via rapid aggregation of reproductive adults on scorched trees. However, our results indicate that for populations to increase to an outbreak situation, colonizing beetles must initiate attacks before tree resin defenses recover, host trees must retain enough undamaged phloem to facilitate larval development, and natural enemies should be sufficiently rare to permit high beetle recruitment into the next generation. Coincidence of these circumstances may promote the possibility of beetle populations escaping to outbreak levels.     

Lodgepole pine forest age class dynamics and susceptibility to mountain pine beetle attack

Because mountain pine beetle attack mature pine stands, an understanding of forest age class dynamics is important to managing forests within the distribution of the beetle. The assumed theoretical negative exponential forest age distribution provides an estimate when ecosystem dynamics are in equilibrium. This study investigates the dynamics of forest age distribution for non-equilibrium ecosystem dynamics, which result primarily from large and irregular stand-replacement fire disturbances that alter the forest age distribution. A model experiment using the SEM-LAND model on a 1 million ha lodgepole pine forest landscape was conducted to estimate how the proportion of susceptible area could be influenced by different fire regimes. The results of the simulation suggest that the temporal dynamics of the area susceptible to mountain pine beetle attack are complex and depend on the fire history of the study area, if the area is experiencing large and irregular stand-replacement fires. The age range of the lodgepole pine forest stands susceptible to mountain pine beetle attack might significantly affect the estimate of the area susceptible to attack.     

Hiding Without Cover? Defining Elk Security in a Beetle-Killed Forest

Recent mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae; pine beetle) outbreaks in the western United States have affected nearly 18 million ha of pine (Pinus spp.) forest and are unprecedented in spatial extent, severity, and duration, yet little is known about wildlife responses to large-scale insect outbreaks. Elk (Cervus canadensis) are important wildlife whose dominant management paradigm on public lands has focused on providing security habitat to increase survival during hunting seasons and to maintain elk presence on public lands to promote hunter opportunity. To assess the effect of pine beetles and associated changes in forest structure on elk security, we used a time series to characterize canopy cover pre- and post-pine beetle outbreak, characterized relative canopy cover among the dominant forest types in the study area post-pine beetle outbreak, and used global positioning system location data from male and female elk to define habitat relationships and security during the archery and rifle hunting seasons. Our study area was within the Elkhorn Mountains of southwest Montana, USA, 2015–2017, which experienced 80% mortality of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests during a pine beetle outbreak that peaked in 2008. We observed an 8.5% reduction in canopy cover within pine beetle-infested lodgepole pine forests, yet canopy cover remained relatively high among other forest types post-outbreak. The top-ranked habitat security models contained positive relationships with canopy cover, distance to motorized routes, terrain ruggedness, and slope with few notable differences among sexes and seasons. Across sexes and seasons, 75% and 50% of elk use was within areas with average canopy cover values ≥31 ± 6.65 (SD)% and ≥53 ± 5.7% that were an average of ≥2,072 ± 187.93 m and ≥3,496 ± 157.32 m from a motorized route, respectively. Therefore, we recommend fall elk security be defined as areas that meet these criteria for minimum canopy cover and distance from motorized routes in the Elkhorn Mountains and in other landscapes with similar forest characteristics and hunting pressures. Although we observed expected reductions in canopy cover within pine beetle-infested forests, defoliation alone did not appear to negatively affect elk security or reduce canopy cover below our management recommendations. Nonetheless, because of the prevalence of standing dead trees in our study area, we recommend future work that investigates the relationships with pine beetle-infested areas post-blowdown because changes in ground structure and costs of locomotion may affect elk habitat and security. © 2019 The Authors. Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

A Structured Threshold Model for Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak

A vigor-structured model for mountain pine beetle outbreak dynamics within a forest stand is proposed and analyzed. This model explicitly tracks the changing vigor structure in the stand. All model parameters, other than beetle vigor preference, were determined by fitting model components to empirical data. An abrupt threshold for tree mortality to beetle densities allows for model simplification. Based on initial beetle density, model outcomes vary from decimation of the entire stand in a single year, to inability of the beetles to infect any trees. An intermediate outcome involves an initial infestation which subsequently dies out before the entire stand is killed. A model extension is proposed for dynamics of beetle aggregation. This involves a stochastic formulation.     

Climate change and the outbreak ranges of two North American bark beetles

Abstract

• 1 One expected effect of global climate change on insect populations is a shift in geographical distributions toward higher latitudes and higher elevations. Southern pine beetle Dendroctonus frontalis and mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae undergo regional outbreaks that result in large‐scale disturbances to pine forests in the south‐eastern and western United States, respectively.
• 2 Our objective was to investigate potential range shifts under climate change of outbreak areas for both bark beetle species and the areas of occurrence of the forest types susceptible to them.
• 3 To project range changes, we used discriminant function models that incorporated climatic variables. Models to project bark beetle ranges employed changed forest distributions as well as changes in climatic variables.
• 4 Projected outbreak areas for southern pine beetle increased with higher temperatures and generally shifted northward, as did the distributions of the southern pine forests.
• 5 Projected outbreak areas for mountain pine beetle decreased with increasing temperature and shifted toward higher elevation. That trend was mirrored in the projected distributions of pine forests in the region of the western U.S. encompassed by the study.
• 6 Projected outbreak areas for the two bark beetle species and the area of occurrence of western pine forests increased with more precipitation and decreased with less precipitation, whereas the area of occurrence of southern pine forests decreased slightly with increasing precipitation.
• 7 Predicted shifts of outbreak ranges for both bark beetle species followed general expectations for the effects of global climate change and reflected the underlying long‐term distributional shifts of their host forests.

     

Interactions Among Fuel Management,Species Composition,Bark Beetles,and Climate Change and the Potential Effects on Forests of the Lake Tahoe Basin

Climate-driven increases in wildfires, drought conditions, and insect outbreaks are critical threats to forest carbon stores. In particular, bark beetles are important disturbance agents although their long-term interactions with future climate change are poorly understood. Droughts and the associated moisture deficit contribute to the onset of bark beetle outbreaks although outbreak extent and severity is dependent upon the density of host trees, wildfire, and forest management. Our objective was to estimate the effects of climate change and bark beetle outbreaks on ecosystem carbon dynamics over the next century in a western US forest. Specifically, we hypothesized that (a) bark beetle outbreaks under climate change would reduce net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) and increase uncertainty and (b) these effects could be ameliorated by fuels management. We also examined the specific tree species dynamics—competition and release—that determined NECB response to bark beetle outbreaks. Our study area was the Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB), CA and NV, USA, an area of diverse forest types encompassing steep elevation and climatic gradients and representative of mixed-conifer forests throughout the western United States. We simulated climate change, bark beetles, wildfire, and fuels management using a landscape-scale stochastic model of disturbance and succession. We simulated the period 2010–2100 using downscaled climate projections. Recurring droughts generated conditions conducive to large-scale outbreaks; the resulting large and sustained outbreaks significantly increased the probability of LTB forests becoming C sources over decadal time scales, with slower-than-anticipated landscape-scale recovery. Tree species composition was substantially altered with a reduction in functional redundancy and productivity. Results indicate heightened uncertainty due to the synergistic influences of climate change and interacting disturbances. Our results further indicate that current fuel management practices will not be effective at reducing landscape-scale outbreak mortality. Our results provide critical insights into the interaction of drivers (bark beetles, wildfire, fuel management) that increase the risk of C loss and shifting community composition if bark beetle outbreaks become more frequent.     

Spruce beetle outbreak was not driven by drought stress: Evidence from a tree‐ring iso‐demographic approach indicates temperatures were more important

Climate change has amplified eruptive bark beetle outbreaks over recent decades, including spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis). However, for projecting future bark beetle dynamics there is a critical lack of evidence to differentiate how outbreaks have been promoted by direct effects of warmer temperatures on beetle life cycles versus indirect effects of drought on host susceptibility. To diagnose whether drought‐induced host‐weakening was important to beetle attack success we used an iso‐demographic approach in Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) forests that experienced widespread mortality caused by spruce beetle outbreaks in the 1990s, during a prolonged drought across the central and southern Rocky Mountain region. We determined tree death date demography during this outbreak to differentiate early‐ and late‐dying trees in stands distributed across a landscape within this larger regional mortality event. To directly test for a role of drought stress during outbreak initiation we determined whether early‐dying trees had greater sensitivity of tree‐ring carbon isotope discrimination (?¹³C) to drought compared to late‐dying trees. Rather, evidence indicated the abundance and size of host trees may have modified ?¹³C responses to drought. ?¹³C sensitivity to drought did not differ among early‐ versus late‐dying trees, which runs contrary to previously proposed links between spruce beetle outbreaks and drought. Overall, our results provide strong support for the view that irruptive spruce beetle outbreaks across North America have primarily been driven by warming‐amplified beetle life cycles whereas drought‐weakened host defenses appear to have been a distant secondary driver of these major disturbance events.